Okay, why don't we get started here? I'm Doug Harned, Bernstein's Senior Global Aerospace and Defense Analyst. I'm very excited to have with us today, Chris Calio, the Chairman and CEO of RTX Corporation. I think you may have a couple of things you want to say first. I think you have a couple of slides.
Yeah, yeah, just a couple of intro comments.
Yeah.
Good morning, everybody. Great to be here. Just some housekeeping, maybe to start.
Maybe making some forward-looking statements here this morning with the, you know, risks and uncertainties that come with that. Please consult our SEC filings on that matter. With that out of the way, Doug, maybe just a couple of intro comments.
Yeah.
On RTX, who we are, and where we're focused. For those of you who aren't familiar or as familiar with RTX, we're a global aerospace and defense company, about $80 billion in sales in 2024 through three strategic business units: Raytheon, Pratt & Whitney, and Collins Aerospace. Every day, our 185,000 employees get up with the mission to protect and connect the world, and they're very passionate about that. I would say the demand for our products is exceptionally strong. Our backlog's about $217 billion, about $125 billion of that commercial, the remainder defense. We are on some of the highest growth platforms in commercial aerospace, think A320, A220, 737 MAX. Collins has very strong positions also on widebody, Boeing 787, A350, all with very long aftermarket tails.
On the defense side, Raytheon in particular, of course, franchises all over the world, critical to protecting the U.S. and our allies. We have about 35 systems in play all throughout the world today protecting the U.S. and its allies, names such as Patriot, which I think everyone knows now given what has happened in Ukraine. Great franchises, great positions on some of the highest growth platforms in aerospace and defense. Maybe just a minute, a couple of things on the quarter, Doug, that I think are worth noting. First, some really good news from yesterday, which was the settlement of our work stoppage at Pratt & Whitney. That contract was ratified by our union members, a four-year contract. We will have everybody back, you know, this week and back ramping up in our facilities and back to work. Fantastic news there.
Very happy about that and put that behind us. There was an impact, of course, with the four-week stoppage on our ability to ship all the GTF and F135 that was in our plan. That's something we're gonna have to, you know, recover throughout the balance of the year. There will be a cash impact here in the second quarter as a result. Think break-even to negative cash flow in the quarter, but again, recoverable in the year. We're gonna continue to get our people back, ramped up, get our engines back out the door, so recoverable within the full year. From an earnings perspective, I would just say probably neutral in the quarter given the mix of NEM avoidance on new engines and spare engines.
Good to have everyone back, ramped up, aligned, and back to delivering to our customers on the commercial and defense sides. Maybe second comment would be tariffs. Obviously, we got a lot of play on tariffs from our earnings call. I think we laid out kind of a framework to how we're thinking about tariffs. I would say on balance, we feel a little bit better today than we did then on our earnings call about a month ago, Doug. Obviously, we've had the pause in China, which has been very helpful. Don't have a ton of sales in China, but the number was so high that it was having an impact. That pause certainly helpful. I'll tell you, our mitigations continue to mature as well, in terms of USMCA coverage, pricing initiatives, and the like.
Feeling better today about tariffs than we did a month ago. We still need to get smarter, as does everybody. It's a pretty dynamic environment. I think this weekend was sort of exhibit A when we talk about the EU. Good to have that on pause as well. We'll update that on our call in July, how that's sort of progressing. All in all, for the year, you know, again, excluding tariffs, no change to our operational outlook for the year. That's good. For us, in terms of focus areas, it's about controlling what you can control given the dynamic nature of what's playing out in our markets today and geopolitically. For us, that's really, you know, about execution and innovation. We've got a $217 billion backlog, as I said.
It's executing on that backlog, delivering to our customers on time at the right cost points. Innovation. We're in a long-cycle business. We're gonna invest $7.5 billion this year in company and customer-funded E&D. Need to continue to pump new products out into the market, continue to upgrade our existing products today to meet the needs of our customers. That's where our focus is day in, day out, execution and innovation. Maybe with that, Doug, turn it back over to you to run the show.
Yeah. Chris, you've been in the CEO role now for a little more than a year. You just renamed Chairman. You know, over the course of that year, when you look at the company more holistically than perhaps you did, you know, a few years back, how are you thinking about it differently, if at all, in terms of priorities and opportunities here?
First of all, when we think about RTX, I can tell you we're exceptionally excited about what we think is the runway in front of us. You heard me talk, and you'll hear me talk today about the backlog. To me, that's a testament to our technologies and our products and the demand for our products and our ability to meet our customers' needs. Very excited about where we sit today and on the platforms on which we sit, the fastest growing in commercial and those that are critical on the defense side. Doug, if you just think about our priorities, they've been unchanged, and we've articulated them sort of repeatedly. Number one, it's executing on our commitments to our customers. That includes our fleet management plan at Pratt, okay?
That continues to go according to plan within the technical and financial guidance that we've provided, but it's also continuing to ramp up in terms of delivery to Boeing and Airbus and the airframers and meeting the needs in the aftermarket. Of course, there continues to be a ramp up on the defense side. I know as Primes, we've been at times, you know, questioned about, you know, our delivery. We're gonna continue to ramp on some of the largest platforms that we have. We're gonna, you know, plan to double production this year on GMT, on Coyote, on AMRAAM, things that are being expended very quickly that are in, you know, extreme need out there in the field. We're continuing to ramp that up. You know, executing on our commitments.
Second, of course, is, and I mentioned it upfront, innovating for future growth, $7.5 billion in, in customer and company-funded E&D. We've got the GTF Advantage certified this past quarter, which is a real feather in our cap that's been going on, you know, for years, at, you know, 1% in fuel burn, 4+ % in thrust. Also think we can kit, the key durability improvements that are in the Advantage and insert that into the existing configuration today. Again, not only a new product with the Advantage, but an upgraded product in terms of what's flying around today. On LTAMDS, which is our 360-degree radar, got to milestone C, so into production, which is, again, you know, a huge accomplishment. First customer internationally is Poland, of course, the U.S. Army as well. We see a lot of demand, you know, for that product.
Continuing to innovate. We're in a long-cycle business. As you know, Doug, we've gotta continue to, to innovate so that we don't fall behind. We've gotta continue to make sure our products that are out in the field today are relevant with upgrades. Innovating for future growth. The last one is really leveraging our breadth and scale. I mean, I mentioned each of our three business units. They're each about $25 billion to $30 billion in size. If you just step back and sort of look at them, there's a ton of commonality in terms of our customer base, our supplier base, our manufacturing processes, engineering disciplines. It's really an enabler to the first two priorities. It's making sure that the best practices that we've got in one business get distributed across all three businesses.
It's making sure that our core operating system is deployed fully across all three of our businesses to make sure that we are as efficient and productive as we can possibly be, that we're solving our engineering problems the same way, executing on our key programs and investments the same way. I think we continue to see really strong progress there. We've continued to push the need to drive productivity in our businesses given our size. If you just think about 2024 for a minute, 11% organic sales growth. If you just look at our footprint in terms of square footage, it was flat. If you look at our headcount, it grew less than 2%. That's the kind of productivity that we continue to drive because we gotta make this business, these businesses as cost-competitive as possible.
Those continue to be the themes and the priorities that we articulate to our folks each and every day. Again, they're gaining traction.
Now, I wanna start a little more on the defense side. I know you were just on the trip with the president in the Middle East. There were some very large numbers discussed out there. I think a few specifics related to Raytheon.
Mm-hmm.
Perhaps you can give us a sense of what we should expect coming out of there for Raytheon. What opportunities are there?
Yeah. First, on the trip itself, I will tell you, making annual trip there to meet with our customers and whatnot, I will tell you the tone and tenor this time was just different. There is clearly a different sort of posture in terms of the administration, clearly a different posture to the, you know, U.S. defense contractors and the need there, which is really positive for us. You saw a couple of, you know, joint defense announcements, some in Saudi, others in Qatar. In fact, one of the announcements in Qatar was the first international order for our counter UAS Coyote in Qatar.
Mm-hmm.
Again, making real traction there. I think, honestly, coming out of this trip, Doug, it's a, it's a, there's a lot of momentum in the region. If you just think of Israel, UAE, KSA, Qatar, all at 4% or more of defense spend as a percent of GDP. We've got a very large installed base in that MENA region. We've got 60 Patriot fire units. We've got 25 NASAMS units. We've got key effectors all across the company, AIM-9X, GMT. Coyote is now starting to make inroads there as well. A significant opportunity. Whereas I think before it was a different posture with the administration, and it was, can we rely on the U.S. to be able to deliver what we need? I think that was totally a sea change coming out of this trip.
I think when you think of the needs of that region, it's integrated air and missile defense, as I said, and our installed base speaks to that. I think that's gonna continue to be a focus area, which is, frankly, our core competency when you think about the products we bring to bear. Again, Patriot, NASAMS, Coyote, and all the effectors that go with it.
Yeah. Because we've seen, if you look over the last few years, I mean, there had been a big surge in orders from the Middle East back in the first Trump administration. And we've seen sort of that come, not just for Raytheon, but for others, kind of come down. It looks like when we do, should we assume that now, we should see that kind of turn the corner in terms of, you know, we've seen a lot of growth in Europe, but the Middle East will now come back as another source of growth here?
I absolutely think so. Again, I think the change in posture that the administration has led will be a key part of that. Again, the conversations with our customers while we were there were just much different than they were 12, 18 months ago. I think there is a lot of momentum in the region, and our products are well-suited for the needs.
Let me come back to the U.S. So right now we're looking at, we have this skinny 2026 budget.
Yep.
Not a lot of detail in there. We have a reconciliation bill that adds a lot, but a lot of that is the obligations do not have to be done for four years, and it is 10 years of spend. I mean, how are you looking at both the budget process today here in the U.S. and where the opportunities are for Raytheon?
Yeah. I, and you're right, Doug. When you add those two things together that you just talked about, you know, you're looking at close to a trillion dollars in terms of the potential defense budget.
If that reconciliation money gets spent.
Yeah. Absolutely. I think there is a commitment to ensuring that our, you know, defense here in the U.S. is on, you know, as the Pentagon would say, better, better sort of war readiness and war footing. I think there are significant opportunities in terms of munitions replenishment, homeland missile defense, counter UAS, frankly, all of the effectors that are in the Raytheon portfolio, again, GMT, AMRAAM, Stinger, Javelin, and down the line, Standard Missile Family. I think the needs are there. I think they are prioritized. When I look at this budget again, I understand your point about what will become reality, but I think we're well-positioned to capitalize on wherever it lands.
In some of the things you just mentioned, all could fit under the umbrella of this Golden Dome.
Mm-hmm.
Concept.
Yeah.
How are you thinking about Golden Dome and what opportunities there may be for you? There are obviously existing products, and there are potentially new things.
Yeah. I think if you just sort of step back and listen to how the president has just sort of described this as something that he wants in place or meaningful progress on within his term, so within like the next three years or so. That is exactly the way we're thinking about it and the way we've been discussing it with the decision-makers there. If you just look at our portfolio, and I'll name-check them again, but these are our proven, battle-tested solutions that are in inventory today. Patriot, a significant number of sort of ballistic missile intercepts over its life. It is a tremendous brand because of the performance that it's brought to bear. NASAMS, close to 1,000 intercepts just in the last few years, in terms of Ukraine.
Coyote, I mentioned before, counter UAS, that close-in layer. We've had, you know, north of 170 intercepts over the last two years as part of the Red Sea. It's been highly effective. Customer has been extremely complimentary. If you just think about protecting the coasts, right? We've got the TPY-2 radar as part of the THAAD system in conjunction with the SM-3 effector. We've got a number of ready-now and proven solutions that can be brought to bear that can go into the installations, whether it be population centers, critical infrastructure, wherever it may be. Doug, you can go build on that, right? In other words, we can upgrade those products, backfill them from inventory, and maybe start to see penetration of new products like LTAMDS, our 360-degree radar, right, backfilling Patriot.
We're gonna continue to upgrade those products that we would put in. I think you can make meaningful progress with those existing platforms today and those products that I just mentioned, and then beyond that point, upgrade those existing products or bring in your next-generation products behind them.
You know, when you look at all of this, and I know there's a big meeting coming up in Huntsville soon, you know, what would you say when you look at a large system like this? In the past with large systems, we've seen all kinds of approaches with, sort of fragmented many companies, company leadership like we saw in Future Combat Systems, National Team, which we saw in GMD. When you think about the Golden Dome, what things would you like to see in terms of the leadership, how the technical strategy, how the acquisition strategy could be formulated here?
I think your point's a good one, Doug. I think too much fragmentation obviously can lead to a lack of accountability, and that drives, you know, program timing and cost for sure. I do think given the technical nature of what we're talking about here and the scope and the mission it's trying to solve, I do think it's gonna take a whole of industry to be able to do it and do it right and do it on the timeframe that the president and the Pentagon have outlined. Again, I'll just speak to our part. I think we've got things that are ready now that can be plugged in, and we wanna be helpful in any way, shape, or form in terms of how to shape the architecture and whatnot.
I do think it's gonna take the best that industry has to offer. And again, talking to our book, I think we have a lot to offer in that regard.
Talk about Europe. Obviously you've had a, you know, there've been a lot of opportunities for you to help, certainly related to Ukraine and, and the rest of Europe.
Yep.
Can you describe how you're looking at the war in Ukraine now, the impact of the, you know, Russia's actions, but the impact on other countries that have bought Patriots? How are you thinking about demand there?
Yeah. I mean, I guess first and foremost, let's hope there's a path to peace here, and that we can get there. I think just as citizens, that's where all of our head should be, and hopefully that's where it plays out and plays out soon. Irrespective, I think what we've seen is, there needs to be increase in defense spending in Europe. I think you're seeing that now be spoken about very openly, right? You had the Germans sort of remove the debt brake. You have people now, you know, Secretary General Ruth, from NATO talking about at 5%, and some of that's logistics and other things. A lot of that is true hardware spending. You see places like Poland that are coming close to like that 5% already given their proximity.
You're seeing some other countries in that region in Eastern Europe wanting to ramp up their defense very quickly. There is a lot of opportunity in Europe. Again, we've got a very strong installed, I'll call it, base in Europe. We've got nine countries that are sort of Patriot countries, seven that operate NASAMS. We've got 20 countries across Europe that have significant use of Raytheon effectors. Of course, you got the F135 engine on the F-35, you know, as well. There are a strong, again, installed base there and a lot of opportunity as these defense budgets continue to grow. I know there's been a lot of conversation around, you know, Europe, driving its own industrial base and what impact sort of that might have.
Look, I'll tell you, our integrated air and missile defense products, which are among the most highly sought after and prioritized in Europe, I think are gonna continue to see strong demand. We also have spent many years forming very strong industrial partnerships in Europe. I mean, if you just think about, you know, 40 years with MBDA, a partnership on GMT, 60 years with Kongsberg on NASAMS. We've got nine key suppliers in Poland on Patriot, and go on and on. Having a resilient supply chain was something we already were thinking about, you know, before the latest sort of trade back and forth. Having those strong partnerships in Europe, I think, put us in pretty strong stead.
If you just think about RTX as a whole, I mean, we've got close to 24,000 employees in Europe, 60 sites across all three of our businesses. Again, strong, installed base and a strong footprint and set of partnerships that I think, again, positions us well.
When you think of this push, which we have definitely heard, the bi-European push in Europe, you feel pretty good that you can participate as a European player in those markets in, in a sense?
I think we are looked at as more than just a U.S. company given the partnerships that we have there with some of the leading European defense firms and the success we've had in helping develop the industrial base there.
Now, Raytheon has been a little challenged in reaching the margin goals you had from a few years ago, you know, getting to that 12%+ type margin. You know, I know you've had some challenging fixed-price programs. You also, though, have a shift in mix toward international. Can you talk about how we should see that margin trajectory going forward given the shifts in the business you have?
Yeah. We've been, we've been pretty clear that, that we think Raytheon is a 12+% sort of ROS business. And, you know, when you look at what's gonna drive that, Doug, we've seen progress, by the way, over the last few quarters in terms of margin expansion. When you see that trajectory to the 12+%, it starts with a healthier supply chain, for sure, making sure that we can execute on our programs, within the period of performance and at the cost, you know, that we need. We've had eight straight quarters of material growth. Feel good about the trajectory there. I would say that the second piece, and you mentioned it, of tailwind is the backlog mix. We ended Q1 at about 46% of the backlog international.
That was up sort of two percentage points sequentially, 10 percentage points from the end of 2023. You are continuing to see the international demand, which is a higher margin, you know, set of contracts, become a larger part of our backlog. Then third, it is really the backlog composition. Much of it has come on the back of what I would consider to be our traditional core competency, core products, integrated air and missile defense, radars and effectors, right, things that are right in our wheelhouse. Those things are mature products to where we can start to see productivity come back again. Again, helping the margins there as well.
Would you say you're sort of kind of this year kind of at an inflection point, or is this something that would be very gradual over many years?
No, I don't think it's over many years. I think it's something that we can see over the next several years, Doug. You mentioned that we've had some programs that we've had to sort of wrestle to the ground and get into a better place. I think we've done that on many of those, on many of those programs. There are certain contracts in our backlog today that we would say are perhaps, we'll call them underperforming parts of our backlog that will burn off substantially over the next couple of years. That's where you're gonna see the new bookings, the integrated air and missile defense, the international orders really start to be executed. Again, we should help that margin momentum that we've been talking about.
Let's move over to Pratt. I thought it was great news, the resolution of the strike.
Yeah.
Let's talk, I want to talk a little bit about the GTF, if you could kind of update us on sort of where things stand with respect to the powder and metal issue.
Yeah.
We're still seeing, you know, quite a few airplanes grounded.
Yeah.
How's that coming along?
Yep. As I said upfront, Doug, the technical and financial outlook that we've put on the fleet management plan remains consistent. Again, our inspection findings are actually below where we had in the fleet management plan, which is great. It always starts with that and with the safety of the fleet. That's going better than we had anticipated. The key to continuing to drive down AOGs—they have stabilized, they're starting very slowly to come down—is MRO output. I've been very, very clear that that is the single biggest lever we have, getting engines into the hands of our customers to get their aircraft off the ground. If you think about MRO output in the first quarter on the GTF 1100, it was up 35% year over year.
Last year in 2024, it was up 30%. Again, we're continuing to see traction in MRO output. We've made a ton of investment in our GTF aftermarket MRO network, both Pratt shops but also partner shops. We're seeing turnaround times, you know, come down. We've compressed it about 10%. Again, that's on the back of some improvements on Gates 1 and Gate 3. Think disassembly Gate 1, reassembly and test Gate 3. It's Gate 2, material accumulation, where we get our spare parts in from our internal and external suppliers. We need to continue to see improvement. Now, we have seen improvement on things like structural castings, which had been a pain point for us, up about 16% year over year in the first quarter. Powder metal forgings, which we did huge ramp last year, another 10% year over year growth in Q1.
Starting to see that go in the right direction. We need to continue to see material flow through our shops. When it does, our teams can compress turnaround time significantly on heavy work scopes. By the way, those numbers that I just gave you, the 30% last year to 35% this year on heavier work scopes, you're seeing those types of output numbers on heavier shop visits, which is encouraging. The teams are continuing to learn out our processes and get better at taking time out.
I think the Gate 2 point you're making is so important here because, you know, when we, it appears to us when we're, when we look at, you can see these go through the shop.
Mm-hmm.
In 100 days if everything's smooth.
That's right. I mean, again, it's.
It's the parts issue that.
We're not sitting back idly by, you know, waiting at the door for parts. We are in with our suppliers each and every day. Where are we having yield issues? What can we do to help from an engineering perspective? Setting up new and additional sources. I'll also tell you repair development has been another focus for us, continuing to drive, you know, parts that were scrapped before where you would need a new part, developing repairs to salvage that part better from a turnaround time perspective and not having to go buy a new part, so better from a cost perspective. These are the kinds of things that we continue to develop each, you know, and every quarter to help sort of drive output. We've gotta continue.
Yeah. I know, as you were commenting, I mean, you've expanded your network, so your MRO network significantly in 13 to 16 to 19 shops. One of the things that I think has to be a challenge in there is you get someone new involved, and it takes a little while to get them up to speed to be able to do a shop visit on these engines.
Yeah. There, there's a learning curve for sure, Doug, but the people that we're bringing into the network are MRO providers. I mean, they know the processes, they know what's required. It's just, it's learning this engine and what has to be done. One of the really good things about this MRO network that we have is that we all share information. It's not a proprietary, you know, type thing where, hey, if we develop something, we don't share it with MTU, or if MTU develops a way to turn the engine a particular way to take time out of disassembly, they don't share it with us. It's actually, you know, completely open book, sharing with each other best practices.
You have some fantastic MRO providers in our network, not only the Pratt shops, but I mentioned MTU, Delta Tech Ops, and others.
Yeah.
To the extent that there are learnings in one place on how to do something, that gets blasted across the network to go drive down turn times.
You mentioned the Advantage certification.
Yep.
First, what, what's the sort of timeline to ramp up the Advantage? 'Cause you're, you're still producing the.
Yep.
Traditional.
Yep.
Version.
Yep.
How's that mix go over time?
The way that we've decided to do this is sort of like a two-year cutover, okay? We're being sort of thoughtful about how we do this, making sure where we have sort of new parts of the bill of material that we can, you know, that we can produce them with the yields that we need and make sure that we're not in any way, shape, or form impacting our ability to produce engines for Airbus, right? We want to be thoughtful about this cutover. It's going to be about a two-year process, again, because we want to make sure that we've got sort of surety of supply to our customers and do this in a very thoughtful way. At the same time, Doug, we're actually going to be, again, as I said before, kitting the key parts of the durability improvements of the advantage.
You can get about 90% of the durability improvements from about 30% to 35% of the parts. Kitting those and then selling them as part of shop visits on the existing configuration today. That is a 2026 initiative.
You and I have talked about some of the issues that you've had on the GTF. In terms of those durability issues, how does the Advantage, what are some of the things that the Advantage delivers on, should deliver on to address those?
Yeah. You're gonna have a state-of-the-art hot section, right? As you know, the hot section drives a lot of the interval, the interval that the engine can survive, the time on wing between shop visits. We're gonna have a state-of-the-art hot section. That's new cooling holes, new coatings. You're gonna have, again, as I said before, you know, additional cooling air going through the center of that engine. That's how we're able to get the additional sort of thrust by opening up the LPC a little bit there. You're gonna have LLPs, life-limited parts. They're gonna be full life, Chapter five, right out of the box, right? All of those things go to a much longer interval and much longer time on wing, time between shop visits.
Changing gears a little bit here, you know, Airbus and Boeing both have been behind schedule basically in where they wanna be in delivery. If we go back a few years, what that's meant, one thing that's meant has been a lot of life extension for V2500-powered aircraft. How are you looking at, and those life extensions, I think, are very attractive from a margin standpoint. How are you looking at that trajectory today in terms of when the peak in shop visits is likely to occur?
Yeah. To your point, Doug, the V2500 has been a fantastic engine for us. Customers love that engine. You're seeing the demand remain strong to your point. Retirements have been exceptionally low, and again, it remains a pretty young fleet, by and large, about average age, 15 years. About 20% of that fleet hasn't seen its first shop visit. About 40% hasn't seen its second shop visit. It has some runway in terms of aftermarket. We came into the year with a plan to do about 800 shop visits this year, and we're largely tracking to that. I think you'll continue to see, you know, strong demand for that platform over the next several years. Will it start to gradually step down, as, you know, new aircraft get delivered and that installed base gets larger? It will.
As it gets a little bit older, I think you start to see the content per shop visit grow as well. The V2500 program's gonna continue to be, an aftermarket, you know, growth driver for Pratt for the foreseeable future.
Presumably, in addition to content, you should also see a pricing opportunity, I think, as well. When I sort of look at what Spirit's pricing looks like.
I think, given the environment we've been operating in over the last five years, both Pratt and Collins candidly have been pretty aggressive on driving price increases to address the inflationary environment. Double-digit, you know, growth, in the catalog pricing annually the last several years. And those have stuck. And to your point, Doug, continue to see that as an opportunity.
Now, switching over to F-35. F-35 production, assuming budgets are reasonable and export sales are fine, we're, you know, looking at 156 production a year. When you look at your F135 revenues, you know, how do you think of that? Because MRO, as the fleet grows, is clearly a very big thing for F-35.
I can't start any conversation on F135 without starting with the performance of that engine, which has been remarkable. I think if you talk to any of our customers, any of the operators out there, they'll laud the performance of the engine from a technical perspective. Also been exceptionally reliable. If you just think about it in terms of unscheduled engine removals, you know, 10X reduction versus fourth generation continues to meet its mission-capable rates. It's been a fantastic platform. To your point, I think the OE deliveries are gonna be relatively stable over the next few years. I think sustainment's gonna grow as the installed base grows. It'll be up about 10% in terms of shop visits this year, you know, on that. That's gonna continue to grow as the platform grows.
Sustainment's, you know, an important part of the, you know, the Pratt sales and margin story.
Also in, on the defense side within Pratt, you've got another growth situation, which is on V21. How should we see, you know, that progressing? Is that gonna be a material component of growth here for Pratt in the near term?
I don't know how much I can say on V21.
Yeah.
I know you had Kathy up here before. I'm sure she talked about it. Here's what I'll say about V21. We're excited to be the engine on that platform and continue to work through, you know, the program successfully, meeting milestones, really pleased with how that's going.
On F-47, so that will be a competition here, it looks like. How do you see yourselves positioned for that given the work you've already been doing, related to the, you know, F135 upgrade and so forth?
Yeah. I think today Pratt has, powers the only two sort of fifth-gen fighters when you think about the F-35 and the F-22. I think they've got a fantastic legacy of being able to develop cutting-edge technology to meet the demands of the next fighter, you know, jet generation that's out there. We're gonna compete hard on that. We've continued to invest in the technologies, whether it be low observability, range, thrust, all the things that are gonna be necessary to fulfill the mission that that aircraft is supposed to fulfill. I feel good based upon our legacy that we'll be in a good position there.
Speaking of investment there, if we look forward to the next single aisle.
Mm-hmm.
How are you thinking about Pratt and engine innovation and investment there in terms of what comes next?
Yeah. First of all, I think, again, our near-term priority, Doug, was the, is the GTF Advantage, right? Getting that certified and now ramping that up into production and getting that kit into the existing installed base today. That installed base, if you look at our backlog, that's gonna continue to grow over the next sort of several years. When you think about NGSA, though, I think for us, and we can debate when you think that ultimately.
Right.
Sort of happens. There's varying sort of opinions on that. For purposes of this discussion, we'll just say maybe mid-next decade.
Yeah.
That enables us to do, you know, continued sort of incremental investment, to continue to evolve the GTF Advantage architecture and find ways to make that even more efficient. Think composite fan blades, think, you know, enhanced combustors with ceramic matrix composite-type parts in the hot section, which kinda help as you're driving more hot air through the core to get the efficiency that you need. A next-generation fan drive gear system, as well, potentially, as your fan size sort of grows.
Higher gear ratios.
Higher gear ratios, exactly. All things that can go continue to drive efficiency into the existing architecture today. I've said this before, and I think it bears repeating, which is we've also got to think about the lessons learned from the existing new platforms today. And by that, I mean making sure that durability and time on wing are at the forefront as well. You can go continue to chase efficiency. You can go continue to run your engines hotter, which is how you get that efficiency, but you've gotta balance that against the time on wing and the durability, you know, of these engines. There's always a balance there between the cost savings from less fuel consumption versus increases in time on wing. That's something as we're thinking about the next generation of engines.
How do we, yes, drive efficiency because that's what you need, that's what the market needs, that's what our customer needs, but balancing that against, again, durability and time on wing. As you think even further sort of beyond that, and I bring Collins into this as well, Doug, it's kind of the electric architecture. Collins obviously has a ton of experience in that regard. How will that sort of move over and make the engines a little bit more electric? You're gonna see that, I think, come into the Pratt & Whitney Canada portfolio sooner rather than later.
Yeah. We're talking about, I mean, I mean, Collins has certainly been the, the huge player on the Boeing 787 system, which is the electric.
Absolutely. Absolutely.
That's what you're saying, that kind of.
That kind of.
Development.
You know, that kind of integration with Pratt. Think of an electric architecture, think of an integrated propulsion system with an installed business at Collins and Pratt, again, driving additional efficiency sort of going forward, balancing it, as I said before, the durability and time on wing that our customers need. At the end of the day, availability of their engines is the number one thing on their mind. We've gotta keep that at the forefront of our design decisions.
Now, I know customers who would gladly give up a little fuel burn for better durability, so.
Exactly.
Yeah. If we, if we switch over to, to Collins, you know, one area that has clearly held you back on the top line at least has been the slow progress in production ramp at Boeing, both on the MAX and on the Boeing 787. Can you comment on how you're look, you know, we're now starting to see things improve there. Kelly will be here tomorrow. How are you looking at the Collins ramp, revenue ramp now when you tie in, you know, sort of where Boeing stands?
Yeah. I think we're seeing that improvement in stability as well, Doug, which is fantastic. Again, Collins is capacitized for much higher rates than we're seeing today. As those volumes continue to grow, there'll be some nice absorption tailwind that they'll continue to see. For us, it's making sure that we're in the right position to meet the ramp both on Boeing 737 and Boeing 787 that Boeing's thinking about, making sure that our supply chain is healthy, making sure that any bottlenecks we have are out of the way, making sure that we've got the right level of inventory to support that ramp. That's our focus. As more continues to get delivered, more continues to go through our shops, it'll be better from a cost perspective for us.
Because a few years ago, you know, you were looking at getting Collins margins up into the 19% and percent levels. There seem to be two things that were involved with that. One is to be able to have the operating leverage on the OE side. You are utilizing that capacity, but at the same time, being able to grow the aftermarket. A lot of the things that I know had, you know, people had said before Collins was if you can get that aftermarket growth above OE, that's very helpful as well. You have kinda got two things going on here.
It does. If you just sort of step back and look at the, the Collins sort of business today, and I mentioned this upfront, it's got fantastic positions on the highest growth platforms, A320, Boeing 737 MAX, okay? When you think about their installed base today, it's about $170 billion worth of equipment flying around today, over $100 billion of that, which is out of warranty, meaning it's generating meaningful aftermarket dollars. That's gonna continue to grow. They've got a fantastic base from which to grow the aftermarket, Doug. That's a big part of continuing to drive those margins up. Frankly, we think they can go above pre-COVID levels. Again, when you think of that, that installed base, that'll be a big reason, big reason why. You mentioned the absorption.
Yeah.
Benefits, on OE. Again, we're capacitized for higher levels of delivery. As that continues to rise, that'll provide some tailwind. I think the third component for Collins is a structural cost reduction story. As you know, Collins has been the creation of a number of acquisitions over the years. We continue to drive structural cost reduction in that business. It's starting to bear fruit. You saw about 100 bps of growth last year, another 130 b ps here in the first quarter, on the back of some pretty large restructuring that it's done. It is continuing to drive out waste, you know, consolidate systems, reduce spans and layers. That will help, you know, drive the margin as well.
One area that's been challenging, and there has been interiors. Can you talk about how that's progressing? How should we see that ultimately play out?
Yeah.
It is not just your interiors business. It is across the industry.
I think the Collins Interiors business is a good business. If you think about the number of people out there that can do high-end, high-margin seating, the very small group of which Collins, you know, is a part. I will tell you that the delays in sort of widebody have had a bit of an impact on that portfolio, as have some, I would say, maybe too bespoke, you know, contracts that we took on that we are getting through some very tough certification requirements, but feel like we're getting sort of better there. This business has been in that double-digit raw zip code since 2023.
As we get a little bit more discipline on, you know, sales and contracting and making sure that we, if we're gonna do something that's bespoke, that we get the right return for it, I think you'll start to see those margins continue to grow in that business. Again, that'll be tailwind to Collins overall.
Now, if we sort of put all this together, you know, you've made changes in the portfolio over time. You've done some divestitures, particularly on the Raytheon side. Can you talk about how you're looking at the portfolio today? Are you where you wanna be in terms of things that you consider core?
To your point, Doug, we look at the portfolio of businesses that we've got every year and say, do they meet the sort of criteria, you know, that we want to have in the portfolio? Again, you have got to be thoughtful about how you allocate investment, and you want to make sure that the businesses in the portfolio have differentiating technology, generally speaking, have long aftermarket, you know, tails, and they are on the right, on the right platforms, growing platforms. There are times we've looked around and done some pruning. Some very good businesses, but perhaps did not meet that criteria, and they are better owned by other folks. I would put our approach on this front, you know, I describe it as pruning.
Like, we really, we really think that, you know, both Pratt and Collins and, of course, Raytheon have fantastic, you know, products and product portfolios. Again, they're on the right platforms. We are looking at places where we may not wanna invest. It may not have, you know, runway in terms of margin expansion or technology differentiation. We will look to sort of move those businesses out. As a general matter, we really love the portfolio and how it's positioned.
When you're looking at, I think, your free cash flow guide, it's like $7 billion to $7.5 billion for this year. Can you tell us at all about how you're sort of looking at that over time evolving beyond 2025?
Yeah. I, I, you know, and we talk about this a lot internally. The fundamentals of this business, the customer base, the business model should support, you know, 90% to 100% of, you know, free cash flow as a percentage of adjusted net income. That's what this business, you know, should be. Now, I think we've gotta get our, get OE on a more sustainable, you know, stable path. I think the aftermarket will continue to be very strong. I think, again, you'll start to see the parts of the Raytheon backlog that, again, are in our core start to play through. When those things happen, we continue to take our inventory down, get the right inventory positions.
We should be able to get to those levels that I just articulated, which again allows us to continue to pay the dividend that we've been accustomed to paying, getting our debt levels down and maybe revisiting, you know, or restarting, you know, buybacks at some point, and then just being opportunistic about, about bolt-ons, you know, to the portfolio.
Yeah. I guess just to, to wrap up, when you look forward over the next 12 to 24 months, how are you gonna be focusing your time?
You know, frankly, Doug, it's no different than I said upfront. It's execution, given our $217 billion backlog and the demands of our customers. It's innovation. We're gonna continue to invest at that $7.5 billion level to make sure that we've got the right products in the portfolio at the right time. To tie it all up, it's the talent. It's making sure that we've got the talent across each of our businesses, and we're sharing talent to be able to both execute and innovate. That's the lion's share of my time and the leadership's time: execution, innovation, and the talent to make it happen.
Good. Well, Chris, thank you very much for joining us today.
Yeah. Thank you, Doug. Appreciate it.