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Morgan Stanley’s 11th Annual Laguna Conference

Sep 13, 2023

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Kicking off the asset-light portion of the transportation content at Laguna. We have RXO and CEO Drew Wilkerson, and Chief Strategy Officer Jared Weisfeld. Gentlemen, thanks so much for being here!

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Thanks for having us.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Drew, I think everyone wants to know what you're thinking of the cycle right now, given that so far you've been, I don't know, call it the canary, call it the optimist, call it the glass half full guy. But you've again been able to kind of call the bottom before anybody else. So are you also gonna be able to tell us when the up cycle's coming for anybody else?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah. So one, take a step back, and if you look, you know, towards the end of Q1 last year, that's what started becoming a soft freight market.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

There's no question that we're still in a soft freight market as we sit here today. But we have seen some encouraging signs, even since our earnings call. If you look at load-to-truck ratio-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We've seen that increase.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Since our earnings call. It was under two, now it's sitting around three. Now, typically, we start to see the spot loads kick in whenever it-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Gets around 6-to-7 to 1 Tender rejections were almost 0% for almost a year. Now, they're sitting somewhere in that 5%-6% range. So you're starting to see carriers push back on rates-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

At this point. The third thing that I'd point to is that you're seeing capacity exit the market. It's not doing it at a what I would call a fast rate, but when you look at what carriers did with their balance sheet during 2020 and 2021, they built up strong balance sheets.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

It's lasted a little bit longer than what maybe we thought or anybody else thought in this market. The last thing that I'd point to is inventory levels. We've got a lot of retail and e-commerce customers, and the one thing that they're telling us is their inventory levels are in a good position, night and day from where they were last year.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

What we don't know is what's gonna happen with consumer demand, which will ultimately-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Drive if we're gonna have a peak season or not.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. So just on that, I mean, I'm not asking you to answer for your customers, but that inventory level is in a good position, but the consumer kind of hasn't materially changed from maybe 6 months or 12 months ago. And we've been destocking this whole time.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Mm-hmm.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

If that logically means that we are continuing to destock-

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Mm

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

With inventories being okay, which means inventories get low pretty soon, right? I mean, do they get that trajectory? Kind of, are they telling you that we're getting to a point where they need to start restocking?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Our customers understand that the transportation market can flip very, very fast.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Like, if you think back to, you know, the, the early parts of COVID, you saw the capacity become extremely loose in Q1 of 2020.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

There wasn't a lot of freight. But by Q2, there was a lot of freight, so the inventory levels were going up and down.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

As you started to head into 2022, you saw capacity fall off fairly quickly and become that soft freight market environment. So our customers have been around the block, and they understand that demand can change very, very quickly, and that they have to be prepared for that.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. You guys are historically, and you continue to be, a very contract-exposed broker, but kind of how are you thinking about the relationship between the spot and the contract market right now? Kind of, A, have both of them been weaker than you thought they would be? And, B, kind of, is that relationship sort of maybe structurally changing a little bit?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, I'd say, one, we don't view it as exposed, right? Like, we view it as, we don't even get the opportunity to get the spot loads if we don't have the contractual-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

relationship.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

So for us, we grew our contractual business by 19% on a year-over-year basis-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Last quarter. What that speaks to is the relationships that we have with our customers.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Our customers, they come back to us year after year, and they're not coming back to us in a bid saying, "Hey, we want to renew what we did with you last year." They're coming back to us and say, "You've got great service. You've got good technology. We trust the relationships that we've built with your team. You're providing us with solutions. What else can you do?" And one of the ways that we've seen that for some of our largest customers is, they've actually started to give us either a portion or outsourcing their LTL freight to us. We're servicing the truckload freight so well with these large customers, that they're giving us a piece of the LTL as well.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I'll come to the LTL in a second. Just to maybe push you a little bit, kind of, is there a temptation at all to maybe tactically go after a spot, when the market's this low, and it's pretty obvious that the next move is probably gonna be on the way up? I mean, who knows when that's gonna happen, but again, you said you really go after a contract, you want to fulfill that first, but would you tactically go after spot model as well?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah, let me be clear. We go after both. We-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Sure

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And you don't get the spot without the contract.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

What we believe is that when the market inflects and load-to-truck ratio starts to hit that 6:1 to 7:1-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We're gonna be the first place that customers come for that spot freight environment.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We're very confident in that. If you go back to, you know, 2020 and 2021, whenever you saw the market inflection on the way up-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

That's whenever we were growing volumes by mid-20s, 30%+ on a year-over-year basis-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Because we're moving the ball forward contractually, but we're also the first place that they come for spot loads, for projects, for mini bids.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

It's such an important point, Ravi, that Drew's making, when you think about the fact that the relationships with our customers are very sticky, right? Our top 20 customers have been with us for 14 years-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

And we service them across cycles. So to Drew's point, we're adding sticky volume, and when the market inflects, we've serviced that freight so well during the contractual, from a contractual standpoint, we're then getting rewarded with the spot projects, the mini bids, the special projects, and we've done that time and time again, and we've been able to really move the needle on that contract versus spot mix pretty quickly. If you think about right now, probably at the higher end of that range, at about 79% last quarter, but you know, when market flips pretty quickly, we'll still service that same contractual freight, but then we'll go ahead and be rewarded that spot volume.

In some cases, you've seen that move as quickly as 1,000 basis points at any given quarter in terms of how quickly we can pivot the business.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Sounds good. Just kind of lastly on this topic, peak season, like you... Is there gonna be one? Kind of, is it gonna be similar to last year, better or worse? What, what, what are you hearing so far?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, it's gonna be hard to be worse than last year. Last year, there was no peak season, so it would be hard to be worse.... You know, as we sit here today, again, inventory levels are in a good position. It really comes down to, what is the consumer going to do? Are they going to spend their money on travel, or are they going to hold onto the money, or are they going to spend it on Christmas presents?

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

I don't think that's something that's known yet today, but, you know, whenever you look at it on a year-over-year basis, it's hard to imagine peak season being more muted than what it was last.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. So, yeah, let's see. Let's hope there's some bounce or the other going forward. Your new business pipeline, kind of what, what's the current state of the new business pipeline? Kind of, you know, when, when you think of the opportunities coming down the pipe and kind of the, the contract business coming your way, customers are willing to kind of come to you and give you their, their, their transportation spend. Again, A, is that something that actually accelerates in a downturn because customers can actually focus on this? And B, kind of, what are they telling you in terms of long-term planning with, you know, their, their, their long-term supply chain plans?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, the first part of your question, does it accelerate during a downturn? You're absolutely seeing that it's accelerating during a downturn. Customers are reducing the number of carriers that they're working with.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And we're a beneficiary of that. As you saw last quarter, we grew volume 10% on a year-over-year basis. What that means is, whether it's asset-based or whether it's broker, how, how are you considered a core strategic provider for these customers? And we're in a very good position. You know, between XPO and RXO, I've been here for almost 12 years now.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

I have never been more excited about where our relationships are, where our sales pipeline is, you know, the relationships that we built, than what I am right now.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Ravi, on that point, our brokerage pipeline last quarter was up 118% on a two-year stack. So you just think about the momentum that we've had in the business and the focus post-spin that we've had as an organization, entirely focused on asset-light transportation, dialed in with our customers in a way, to Drew's point, that we haven't... You know, we were always dialed with their, with our customers, but you think about the intensity at which we're approaching it right now, it's translating into real results on that pipeline.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Can you, can you elaborate on that a little bit? Kind of, is this you guys just putting in more effort here because you have more resources, you're a standalone company now? Or is it more awareness of RXO as an independent entity, or customers are coming to you? Like, what's driving that? I mean, that's not a normal number. What, what's driving that massive increase?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, I think it's three things. One, like, if I go back to the early part of XPO, we were more selling a vision than the service that we were providing.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

So now we are more of a known commodity as we go into customers. So, you know, we've built up a strong reputation in the marketplace.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

If it's a new customer, we can actually point them to an existing customer that's in the same vertical as them, to talk about the success that we've created in their supply chain. The second thing would be that, yes, we are more focused than what we were whenever we were one company. If you think about when our outside sales folks went into a customer, they, you know, two years ago, they were charged with selling supply chain, an asset-based LTL piece, as well as a non-asset piece of the load. And so for us, you know, being able to walk into a customer and focus clearly on what RXO does.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Has been a winning solution for us. And even for myself and within my own time, I got so much from a leadership development from my time at XPO, and being able to sit in on LTL monthly operating reviews and European transportation monthly operating reviews. But now, I, you know, there wasn't a lot left to gain. There was more for me to be able to gain to spending my time within RXO. So for us, you know, the relationships have never been stronger, the pipeline's in a great position, and we've positioned ourselves very, very well that when the market does turn, we know that we're going to be large winners in that market.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. You guys have been pretty open about the fact that obviously the upcycle is going to be great for you, but there may be a slightly painful transition, you know, as spot rates go up and the contract rates kind of don't commensurately reset, given your high contract exposure. But spot rates have not gone up. So does that mean the pricing outlook in 3Q is better than you initially thought?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, not necessarily better than what we initially thought because we didn't bake in the recovery for.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got it.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Q3. But what I would say is, as you look at what happened during Q2, you saw that our gross profit per load came down each month. That's partly because we were in produce season and what was going on in the market. But as you start to see that load-to-truck ratio rise, you should see a little bit of a squeeze on gross profit per load. But as we get to the other side of that, and you start to see load-to-truck ratio in 6 to 7 to 1, you'll see that our spot gross profit per load will more than offset the diminish that has happened on our contractual gross profit per load.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. And kind of, how does that kind of hand off through the cycle? And then when spot rates go up, will the profit per load also come down? Or how do you think about that anyway?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

The profit per load will go up.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Will go up.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Because typically the spot gross profit per load more than offsets what's come off of the contractual gross profit per load.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay, got it. That sounds good. And just kind of maybe more of a structural or strategic question: When customers are coming to you saying, "You know, hey, I want someone to partner with, you know, not someone who's tactically looking for the lowest price for the next available truck," is that pricing discussion kind of easier because they're not looking at a DAT spot rate number and saying, "I want that price?" And kind of what does that mean in terms of the pricing you get relative to maybe some of your peers who maybe don't have that long-term strategic relationship?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah. So for us, you know, it's never been in our DNA to lead on price. Like, we just, we don't view that as a long-term, healthy business model because whenever a customer lets you in on price, they'll throw you out on price.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Our goal is to go in right at where market price is.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Typically, that's set by an asset-based carrier, because if you look at it, while brokers have taken significant share from asset-based carriers over the last decade, now make up, you know, 21%-22% of the overall market-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Asset-based carriers make up the rest. So if you think of your large asset-based carriers, they typically set for a run, what is going to be close to market? Our goal is to come in right in line with that.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Work with the smaller carrier, and be able to create a margin off of it.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Let's talk about competitive dynamics in the space. Obviously, there's a large incumbent player. There's a group of kind of new... I don't want to call them digital entrants 'cause you're very digital as well, but new players, I guess.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, and I don't think I'd say new, anymore, right?

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Well, then not even new. That's fair. So we need to come up with a better term for them, but you know what I'm talking about. And then you have the long tail of mom-and-pops, right? So, how are you seeing each of those kind of four entities active in the marketplace right now? Kind of, is one more aggressive or less aggressive than the other? And I have a long-term question for you, though.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, I break it up maybe a little bit different. There are four types of brokers in my mind. One is you have large, traditional brokers.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

That have been around for a long time, and they're great operators. They understand the market very, very well. They've got deep relationships with their customers. We see them on a lot of our tier one bids, but now they're trying to put technology into the business, and sometimes that can be a little bit different to operate under.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

The second is, we heard a lot of talk about technology entering into the marketplace, but when you look at what we've done for customers, for carriers and employees, we think it's unmatched to anything that's going on.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We've seen more folks lead on price rather than technology, and I just talked about the reasons why I don't think that's the right model for us. The third is, you have large asset-based carriers that have developed a brokerage. For me, you know, on an upturn, they perform very, very well.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

On a downturn, you typically see that their volumes suffer a little bit, because they're doing what you would want them to do as a stock owner. They're protecting the asset and making sure that the asset stays loaded. And then the fourth is one like us, that was really built from the ground up with technology.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And operations. We never prioritized one over the other. We've taken great operators, and we've partnered them with the best technologists in the world. Now, I'll use our pricing algorithm as an example for that. You know, when you look at our pricing algorithm, I don't have one person that leads it, I have two. One of them is a strong operator that has been in the brokerage industry for more than 20 years. He's known and seen every single market and knows how to react within that. And the person that he's partnered with is somebody who developed pricing algorithms within the hotel industry.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Hmm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And disrupted it. Has written multiple books on pricing algorithms. So a great technologist with a great operator, has always been the way that we've built the business.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I'll come back to your technology, got a bunch of questions on that, but just kind of the second group that you mentioned, the guys who have traditionally been aggressive with pricing and trying to kind of buy market share, are they backing off now, given what's happened to rates? Are they kind of being more active now because the market's really low? Kind of, when do you see them be the most, I don't want to use the word predatory, but when do you see them making the most impact? Is it an up cycle or a down cycle?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

you know, there's 17,000 brokers and, you know, a couple of those sit inside the top 10. I don't know that there's anything that is different in the way that they're acting, except for maybe they're being a little bit more responsible, but I still would not say that the pricing is in line with market at this point.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. The big incumbent competitor that you have is going through some changes. They have a new management team. They have a new approach. Kind of, you know, we met with them recently and kind of, they are looking to become more nimble internally, but also, you know, try to increase their scale even more. What's your response to that? Do you think it kind of causes any more changes in the marketplace, or do you think there's enough room for everybody to grow?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, A, we're pulling for them, right?

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Like, they're the leader in the industry. We've got a lot of respect for them. You know, when you look at the size that they are, the better they do, the more that they're going to be able to increase the multiple. So we're their biggest fans outside of their own management team. Second, we've got a ton of respect for them. We do see them on every single bid that.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Is out there. So, you know, respect them as a competitor. Third, for their own internal strategy, all I know is what I've read, you know-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Sure

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

From the likes of yourself and the other analysts that have been out there to report it. But for us, we've built the business to where we're constantly evaluating what we're doing. We're constantly looking at how can we run the business more efficiently.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Than what we're doing it today. It's not... You know, for us, it's not something that we've done just post-spin; it's something that has been going on for the last decade plus.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I thought, let's just talk about the technology angle for a second, and I thought your example of using a dual-prong strategy of an ops guy and a tech guy was really good. Is that your approach to kind of every part of the business? You know, whether it's, you know, dispute resolution or billing or anything, where you're like: I need a human who knows what he's doing, and I need a tech system together. Kind of, do you think that's important?

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Yeah, I mean, it's the fundamental philosophy of RXO, right? How do we go ahead and leverage the best-in-class technology that we've developed from the ground up with the best operators, and that transcends across the entire organization, right? It's what we call the intersection of technology and human capital, right? How do we enable our people with the best technology that's out there? So I think you hit it right on where, you know, you think about how this organization is built and some of the attributes that we have, and we've got an outside sales organization that is entirely focused on making strategic calls to our largest customers. And they're, you know, they have those deep relationships. It's why our top 20 customers have been with us for 14 years.

But they're also paired with the best technology to ensure that they've got the resources to go ahead and be able to deliver to our customers. So I think, hands down, it's part of the DNA of the organization, and I think it's why we've been so successful over the last decade.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

To add on to what Jared said, you know, one of the metrics that we measure in the business that we can really see the impacts of technology is with our employees, and it's loads per day, per head.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And so if you go from 2021, as we end the 2021, you take a 5-year look back, we grew volume at nearly 3 times the rate that we grew headcount. You can start to see that the loads per head, per day are going up. Since 2021 and 2022, and the early parts of 2023, we've continued to increase productivity through technology. The second piece, just to touch on your back office, you know, the more automation that we can create through back office, it is the more bills that they're able to send out per day. It's the more AR that they're able to process per day, and it becomes more exception management.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Than the mundane tasks that they may have been doing 5, 6, 7 years ago.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. On that 3x number, kind of, is that a target? Like, is that something you aim for, like, or is it higher, lower, kind of?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Well, I think it's a moving target, right? Like, it's not always going to be 3x whenever your loads per day continues to go up as well, right?

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Right. Yeah.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

You may be able to increase productivity at the same rate, but it may be 2X over the-

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Yeah

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Over the next five years, and that may actually be a better number than what the 3x was five years ago. So it's not necessarily 3x, it's a moving target within the business of internally, where are we expecting our loads per head per day to go to?

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Got it. I think the point is, it's a highly leverageable model in terms of you think about the growth of volume and headcount, right? We don't expect that to be linear. So as we think about just making our people more productive, getting more volume into the system with less heads coming in at higher contribution margins, that's how we think about the business over the long term.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. This has traditionally been viewed as a very traditional business, where kind of technology is not necessarily welcome, and that may be the case of the long tail. Certainly not for you guys. I think you were the first company in the space to actually, you know, come out and talk about the things you're doing with AI, in this industry, and I don't think it's just hype. I think it's stuff you're really doing. So maybe for those who are not on your call, can you just give a little bit of summary of kind of how you're actually using that?

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Sure. Yeah. I mean, we hosted an artificial intelligence and machine learning webcast about two months ago, and it's up on our website, rxo.com, if anyone wants to take a look, and I hosted it with some of our RXO technologists, including Yoav Amiel, our Chief Information Officer. I think the point is exactly to your earlier point, Ravi. This is not hype. We, you know, Mario, when he was CIO of XPO, infused AI, ML into the system before it was talked about on CNBC 10 times a day, right? This is in the DNA of the organization, and you think about how we're leveraging that. Drew mentioned it earlier. I think pricing algorithms are a great example.

You think about our ability to price in line with the market, leverage our pricing algorithms, and our pricing suite of products is pinged hundreds of thousands of times per day, right? So moving with the market, knowing our carrier base, knowing our customers to ensure that we're maximizing our profitability, I think that's one great example of how we're leveraging AI and machine learning in real time. If you think about future use cases, you know, I think generative AI is really interesting in some of the potential use cases, especially as we think about bringing on new business.

We have 10,000 customers right now, but, you know, as we think about attacking small to medium business as our next growth vertical, can we bring on those customers in a pretty efficient way for them and an efficient way for our organization, where, you know, we're not having our sales force that are necessarily pinged, you know, multiple times per day, but they can leverage a generative AI tool and go ahead and move loads from point A to point B and have that fully automated at higher margins? So I think there's a lot of potential use cases, and, you know, it's something that we're investing in pretty significantly.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

And the net result of that will be seen in that 3x number, potentially kind of staying 3x, even as your volume.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

You got it. I mean, I think loads per head per day, how do we increase the productivity of our organization? And I think you'll also see it in terms of contribution margin, right? As we bring on that incremental revenue that is more automated, you should see higher incremental EBITDA margins as well.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Any questions from the audience?

Speaker 4

Thanks. Maybe can we just get a quick update on some of the other segments? It seems like last mile has held in pretty well, actually, all things considered, but forwarding, on the other hand, maybe experiencing a bit of normalization following some unusual, to say the least, dynamics last year. So maybe you can just talk about where you see kind of normalized earning power of those businesses.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah, I'll start off, and then, Jared, you're welcome to add on. You know, we do have three complementary lines of business to go with our truck brokerage. It's led by our managed transportation business. That's where there are the most synergies between managed transportation and brokerage. And the reason that managed transportation is such a valuable piece of the business is because you're seeing some of the largest customers in the world come to us and outsource all of their transportation. In essence, we become their transportation department and was working as one team. But with that, your brokerage and our other lines of business get to be a carrier for managed transportation. So managed transportation is a customer to our other lines of business.

You talked about last mile, and last mile is a space where we've been the leader in that space forever, and it starts with the infrastructure that we've set up across the country. We are within 125 miles of 90% of the U.S. population. So if you think of a large retailer or e-commerce who is doing big and bulky home deliveries, washers and dryers, refrigerators, stoves, fitness equipment, they start the conversation with us because of the scale, because of the service that we provide, and because we've got a history of doing it at such a strong rate. That's a business that we talked about last year, that we honored our commitments to our customers, and we held pricing even though we saw carrier pricing starting to rise.

This year, our customers rewarded us, and they didn't just give us the price, they actually gave us more business because of how we handled those those pricing discussions and the service that went with it. The last one that you mentioned is forwarding. For us, forwarding is a great piece of business that gives us insight into what's going to be hitting the domestic US market from Asia as well as Europe. I'll say that the actual forwarding piece of the business has started to shrink a little bit, and we put some other complementary pieces in there. If you think about transloads, you think about cross-dock, customs brokerage, all of that lives in our forwarding business, even though I wouldn't necessarily call it forwarding.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Yeah.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

It's extremely complementary to our truck brokerage business, and our customers are loving the services that we've got there. Now that piece of the business in forwarding makes up more than half of our profits.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Were you saying that forwarding is shrinking because you're adding all the other stuff?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

The other stuff is outgrowing what was happening in forwarding. That's right.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got it. And sorry, I have to ask you this, but there was a headline, I think, this morning or last night about Amazon launching a new ship. I don't know if you saw this, but a supply chain with Amazon solutions. So basically, Amazon is now an end-to-end transportation company. But, you know, any, any thoughts on that? Kind of, you know, obviously, the new entrants coming in all the time, but at the same time, just given their scale, it's hard to ignore them.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Absolutely. We always pay attention to them. Got a ton of respect for what they've done in the marketplace, and, you know, we'll see how it plays out for them.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Oh, we'll see. Any more questions from the audience? Just maybe switching gears a little bit, kind of, gonna talk about, you know, balance sheet obviously coming out of the spin. Kind of, you guys are focused on de-leveraging the company and kind of obviously, the growth has continued. But through the next upcycle, kind of, when do you think you hit your leverage targets? When do you think you can kind of, you know, pivot to, like, buying back stock or dividends or other forms of cash, you know?

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Sure. So we exited last quarter at 1.6x net leverage, and our target is generally between 1x and 2x on a net basis, and we want to have investment-grade-like metrics.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

That continues to be our goal. You'll see that number creep higher here throughout the back half of the year as we cycle through prior peaks on 2022 EBITDA.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

So, I think to your point, you know, that's certainly a consideration when we think about capital allocation. We want to go ahead and maintain our commitment to investment-grade like metrics, especially in this market, given recent developments. I think that's really important, especially from a customer standpoint. So I think, you know, when what we're focused on is the long-term free cash flow generation of the business, and you think about the targets that we have out there to generate $500 million in EBITDA by 2027, and you look between now and then, right? We'll generate roughly, at current prices, a third of our market cap in free cash flow.

So I think that provides us significant optionality in terms of capital allocation, whether it's paying back the debt, whether it's organic growth, whether it's share repurchases, a lot of ways to think about that.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Drew, you were one of the first employees of XPO, 12 or years ago or some years. And obviously, for the first several years it was an asset-light roll-up strategy, so you're very familiar with, with that model. I don't expect RXO to become a roll-up anytime soon, but, how do you think about M&A, kind of both in terms of, you know, strategic M&A, things like technology, products, and kind of other things that... tools that you need, or maybe even something like a quasi roll-up?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah. So, well, one, our first strategy is organic growth.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We do that really, really well, and if you look at the brokerage industry from 2013 through 2021, it was growing at over a 9% CAGR.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And during that same time period, we were growing over 27% CAGR. So, you know, when you look at what we've been able to drive organically, it's a very powerful ROI for our investors. With that said, we're not walking around with blinders in the M&A market, and if there was something in the managed transportation piece that we felt like was a cultural fit, and we would be able to leverage our other lines of business as a carrier, then we would take a look at it. And if there was a brokerage out there that made strategic sense, the first thing we'd look at is, how well do they fit in with the organization culturally? And maybe they're helping us add to a mode of transportation that we're still starting to build out. 'Cause we built the business off of full truckload business.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

If there's somebody out there that had something that we felt like we could scale up on our platform, then we would absolutely do it. I don't know about buying somebody for technology because we feel like we've got the best.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yeah

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Technology out there. But-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Not another broker, but maybe, like, some kind of, somebody has a tech product or, like, a cool AI platform or something, like, would you consider, like, a purely tech?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

If we felt like it would create a high ROIC for investors, then we would weigh it against the other things we had internally.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got it. And just kind of, you know, on that point of M&A, is there even a model where you keep acquiring brokers? Like, when you acquire another broker, if you acquire a broker, what are you buying? Like, what can they bring to the table that you probably couldn't do yourself? Is it a new product? Is it a new region? Kind of what could be additive to you?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Yeah, so one would be a mode of transportation that we hadn't-

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

A mode Built out, right? Like, so if you, if they had something that it was in flatbed or refrigerated that allow us to scale that up faster.

Mm

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

That would be one. The second would be customer relationships, right?

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Like, if there were customers that we do business right now with 58 of the Fortune 100 and, you know, over 200 of the Fortune 500, so we still got half of the Fortune 500 companies to go after.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

And if there was long, deep relationships that we didn't feel like we could break through organically, then that may be interesting. And third, you know, could be talent, right?

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Like, if you look at the people and what they would be able to bring to the organization, then we'd pay attention. But again, our first priority is organic growth.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Organic. Yep, got it. Speaking of different modes, obviously, the LTL market's been pretty massively shaken up in the last couple of months. What have you seen there, kind of, you know, A, what does that do to your numbers? What does that do to your business? How did you handle it? And B, kind of, has the dust on that settled, kind of, how do you see that playing out?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

We've seen an uptick in our LTL business.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

That has performed strong this year. A lot of that is, I think, idiosyncratic to some of the things that we've done because it's not transactional LTL. This is where customers are actually outsourcing an entire piece of their business of LTL, whether it's inbound or outbound, or they're actually outsourcing all of it because of the service that we provided on the truckload side. So LTL has been a nice growth story for us all year long.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Mm-hmm.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

I did think that there would probably be more disruption in the truckload space because if you think about long, awkward freight and being able to hit the docks, you know, LTL carriers who are disciplined on what's going to hit their docks, a lot of that may not make it over there.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Sure

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

... and would bleed over into the truckload market, but we haven't seen that yet.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Has the dust settled? Like, is it, is it over for now, or kind of what do you think happens here?

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

I don't know that the dust has settled yet. I think it's still to be determined because it was so much capacity that was pulled out of the market.

Ravi Shanker
Managing Director and Lead Analyst Covering North American Freight Transportation and Airlines, Morgan Stanley

Yep, got it. Now, I think we're out of time, so, Drew, Jared, we'll be again, watching your boards very closely to see when the cycle turns, but until then, thanks for joining us.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Thank you.

Jared Weisfeld
Chief Strategy Officer, RXO

Thanks.

Drew Wilkerson
Chairman and CEO, RXO

Great to be here.

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