Great. Even on day two, we are saving the best for last. Again, very happy to welcome back to Laguna, RXO, with Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, and Senior Market Strategist, Kevin Sterling. Gentlemen, thank you so much for being here.
Thanks for having us. Appreciate it, Ravi.
Thank you, Ravi.
Tons going on in the world today. Obviously, a lot of it has been covered at the conference, so would love your views on this. Maybe you can just open up with what you're seeing out there, lay of the land, and maybe give us a little bit of a market update.
For sure. I know there were some headlines at your conference.
I don't know what you're talking about.
Happy to report that we put out a pretty positive release last week in terms of what we're seeing in the business. Let's expand on that, because the momentum in the business that we're seeing right now is quite impressive. When you think about the update that we put out last week, we talked about our expectation that we're going to continue to grow our truckload volume in Q3 on a year-on-year basis, up low to mid-single-digits, despite overall freight market weakness. I think that's a testament to our share gains, which are continuing, and you're having an acceleration of volume growth slightly on a year-on-year basis, Q3 relative to Q2.
Underneath it, not only are we growing, we're growing profitably. When you look at the prior outlook that we gave from an Adjusted EBITDA standpoint for Q3, $35 million- $45 million, we talked about some pretty significantly positive updates as it relates to how gross profit per load is trending. Our prior expectation was that gross profit per load would move lower in truckload from July through September. In fact, not only did it not move lower, it was up by more than 10% month-on-month from July into August. For three main reasons.
Number one, spot continues to remain very healthy for RXO at almost half of our truckload volume. We are continuing to prove out that we are the broker of choice for spot activity, special projects, and mini bids, and spot carries a significantly higher gross profit per load relative to the contract book of business. Number two, we are continuing to phase in higher contractual rates on our contract book of business. Number three, we are procuring capacity effectively. When you combine all three of those, we had a pretty significant positive update in terms of gross profit per load with continued high spot mix and better buy rates and higher contract rates, all resulting in a better-than-expected gross profit per load outlook.
Ravi, just to piggyback on the procuring capacity more effectively, this is where the Coyote Logistics acquisition has really come into play, giving us more scale, access to additional carriers, particularly the private fleets. Scale matters in this business, as you know. We are really benefiting from that.
Absolutely. Let's unpack that a little bit. Clearly, you guys are leaning into spot, the perfect time to do that. Was that always the plan, or did you see, oh my god, spot's going through the roof, this is crazy? Was that more tactical and opportunistic? What is the right number of that spot contract? Because usually, you're 70/30 contract, and now you're 50/50.
There is no right mix. It really depends on where you are in the cycle. From our standpoint, you don't get the spot business unless you service the contractual book of business. Being able to go ahead and offer exceptional service, better than industry-wide tender rejections, I think is really, really important, especially when you're servicing primary freight.
You're servicing the freight, then the contract customers come to you for that spot business. Not only are you there to accept and service that spot business, but you have to be resourced and staffed for growth. We're staffed for growth. That's always our mantra. Right now, we can grow volume by about 15%+ based on our current headcount and how we're leveraging our technology. We are staffed for growth and leveraging technology to win that spot volume. It's not as much as, hey, we're making a strategic decision to pivot to the spot market based on what we see. It's more about we're servicing our contractual book of business, and even though industry-wide tender rejections have cooled a little bit from high teens to low double- digits, it's still materially higher than it was over the last two to three years.
There is a spot market that's out there, and we happen to be winning a significant percentage of that share because not only are we servicing the contractual freight, but we are also in prime position to service it . We're resourced, and we're staffed for growth, and we have the tech platform to leverage.
Got it. Maybe it's also a good time to remind people that when you say pivot from contract to spot, that doesn't mean, to your point, you're not doing the contract and you're doing the spot. The spot layers on top of the contract you're already doing. It's basically effectively expanding your TAM, not substituting.
It's a great point, and thanks for bringing that up. You have to service the contractual freight to win the spot volume, and just because you start to see spot increase as a percentage of the business doesn't mean that you're sacrificing contract for spot. Remember also, there is a strong relationship between spot and contract. What was contract 6 to 12 months ago might be spot today. What is spot today might be contract 6 to 12 months from now.
As you think about repricing with customers, going through mini bids, ultimately, what is a true success story and an absolute home run is if you are able to go ahead and service the contractual freight, win spot business. Then heading into the next bid season, you have got the ability to go ahead and reprice the contract at an acceptable margin, given everything that is going on in terms of the industry-wide supply dynamics, which I am sure we will get to. You then have an opportunity to capture more incremental gross profit dollars into the network as opposed to only a smaller share of the spot market. That is how we are thinking about our playbook at this point in the cycle.
Got it. A few follow-ups on your comments so far. You briefly referenced the cooling of the tender rejection rates. Is that purely seasonal? Is there something more than seasonality here? Is there something to be concerned about? What do you think happens from here?
Our view is that we are going to tighten from an industry standpoint from here, certainly throughout the end of Q3. Seasonally, you would expect that to continue to ramp through Thanksgiving. I think the magnitude of that ramp is still to be determined, d epending on whether or not the consumer is there and how strong peak season is. Certainly an expectation that we will tighten from an industry-wide tender rejection standpoint, and ultimately spot rates for the industry, ex fuel, so line haul rates should move higher from here for sure. We are, what we like to say, at least Kevin and I, July is the 11th best freight month of the year. Just keep that in perspective in terms of it's really weak seasonally, and we would expect strengthening from here.
Fair enough. You mentioned project business, you mentioned peak, you mentioned mini bids. What does that mean for 4Q momentum versus normal seasonality?
Not going to comment on our view just yet on Q4. I would say certainly Q4 is typically a better quarter relative to Q3 when you think about some of the peak business that we have as it relates to the Coyote Logistics acquisition, and you think about last mile, which is generally better in Q4 relative to Q3. I think the magnitude of that is really going to be a function of what happens with the consumer and how strong a peak there is. We obviously haven't had a peak, certainly since we spun out of XPO which was over four years ago now. I think that'll be the deciding factor. I think what's really important to note here is that, look at the momentum we've had in our business despite soft demand.
This is a supply-driven recovery. EBITDA in Q1 was $6 million. We then showed the momentum and leverage in the business, $6 million went to $40 million. $40 million then relative in Q2, $35 million- $45 million was our guide for Q3. We obviously gave a positive update for Q3 that we just talked about. Mind you, and I think this is a really important point, from Q2 to Q3 last year, our business was down almost 20% sequentially.
Seasonally, last mile is softer in Q3 for us. This year, not only do we have that seasonal softness, but given what's going on in home building and the housing market, shouldn't be surprising to anyone in this room that the demand trends for big and bulky aren't robust right now. We've got an incremental headwind in our Q3 of $3 million- $5 million, which is already embedded in our outlook, and despite all of that, we're able to go ahead and more than offset, given the strength that we're seeing in our core brokerage business. The momentum that we have in our business, despite a soft rate market, is truly impressive.
Got it.
Ravi, just to piggyback on that, too, as we kind of go into bid season next year, late Q4 into Q1, we will be coming at this from a position of strength, j ust servicing all those spot loads for our customers to contract. So it is going to really position us from that strength perspective when we are having those conversations with our customers. Because we are doing such a good job helping them with their spot loads, kind of helping them in this time of change.
Got it. I am going to come to some of those change agents in a second. But briefly, Jared, you mentioned the positive update you gave last week was reflective of the share gains you are making. Talk about that a little bit more. Is the share gains just because of your end market exposure? Are you literally taking share from your peers? What is driving that? Kind of where is that coming from?
It is broad-based strength that we are seeing. If you look at our outlook for Q3, we talked about our expectation for truckload volume to be up low to mid-single-digits year-over-year. If you look at what that implies sequentially, it is about up mid-single-digits sequentially relative to how Cass has been over the last, call it, eight years ex-pandemic. Cass is generally flattish sequentially. It implies about 500 basis points of market share gains. I think that speaks to what we talked about in Q4 of last year, where ultimately the acquisition of Coyote Logistics was complete, fully integrated, and we entered in 2026 with such momentum in our pipeline, and we're executing on that pipeline.
You're starting to see that in results. Many end markets in our second quarter outlook were actually up double-digits. Food and beverage, as an example, flipped positive, and not only did it flip positive, it went double-digits on a year-over-year basis in Q2, first time in two years. I think that speaks to some of the company-specific idiosyncratic momentum that we're seeing at RXO. I think one of the biggest growth drivers that we have over the, call it, next one to three years is how do we go ahead and accelerate that legacy Coyote Logistics volume growth? Such an incredible brand and such deep customer relationships. But volume had been declining before we acquired the asset, which we knew.
Now, you've got the company fully integrated on one platform, one sales, one tech, going to market with the ability to help reinvigorate that volume growth. I think that's a huge driver for us.
Great. I'm going to come to Coyote Logistics in a second, but wanted to address the supply side conditions first. Maybe let's talk about Montgomery first. Do you get a sense that any of these share gains are driven by kind of post-Montgomery changes? Is it too early for that? How do you see that playing out through 2027?
I think it is probably a little too early for that. But I can certainly tell you that based on customer conversations, conversations that we are having with our shippers, shippers want to be doing business with large trusted partners like RXO. They want to feel comfortable that we have got best-in-class safety, vetting processes are robust, the procedures are there, and ultimately they are dealing business with an RXO that also has proper insurance requirements. I mean, it is so important these days. I think we talked about this on our call, where we are towered up like an asset-based carrier in terms of the coverage that we have. Call it $100 million per incident.
So that is really helpful when you are having deep customer relationships, or deep customer conversations on talking with shippers and chief supply chain officers on how they want to go ahead and position their business for the long term. Are they doing business with trusted, reliable partners that have access to massive capacity like we do with 120,000+ carriers, but it is the right kind of capacity? Which is very different from how many actors have been doing it over the last, call it five years.
Ravi, our shippers tell us all the time, we have some of the best compliance vetting processes in the industry. Our insurance providers tell us that, too.
That exactly was going to follow up a bit. Have you had to go back and re-vet your carrier base, and have you seen a reduction in that at all? Because some carriers have had a significantly reduced service.
I think it's one of the largest strategic competitive advantages that we have right now because the business was built on high cargo freight. It was built on expedite just in time. Very robust vetting processes from day one. Not all brokers are starting from the same place.
When you have the ability to tap into massive amount of capacity that we have and think about, did we have to make any material changes post- Montgomery ? The answer is no. I think that speaks to the strength of the business and the existing platform and infrastructure that was already in place.
Great. To your point of it is still too early to tell, one of the takeaways from this conference has been the asset-based guys saying that 2027 is going to be when you will really see the impact of Montgomery, when the small guys get insurance renewals and the carrier base gets renewed. Do you feel that as well, that it is going to be 2027 where you see it? What do you think is that share opportunity over time, now that you are a consolidated entity with Coyote Logistics?
I think there is a significant opportunity heading into 2027 for large-scale brokers like RXO, to accelerate share gains. Like I said earlier, we are not seeing it quite yet, but the customer conversations are real. It is palpable to have the conversations with our customers, with our sales force, that shippers want to consolidate their freight with larger carriers, with larger brokers. I would expect that to be a tailwind into 2027. To your point, I think it also serves as a potential tightening catalyst for the overall market, where we are in the fortunate position where we did not have to make any significant changes to our platform. We are always in a state of continuous improvement, but no real significant changes. A lot of other brokers were not in the same position.
As you think about many players in the industry leveling up their game, c ertain carriers are no longer hauling for certain brokers. What does that have the net effect of doing? Reducing capacity, f urther tailwinds in terms of the supply side equation. We are in a supply-driven recovery. We also think there is a lot more room to go in terms of capacity that will continue to come out.
Ravi, I think it is setting up, even if you look beyond 2027. For a multi-year recovery. I can remember when I first got in this industry, and you have been around a long time, 2004, 2005, 2006, multi-years. Truckers tell me all the time, in the 1980s and 1990s, cycles used to last three and four years. There will be a supply response, but it will be the right supply.
Think about the last 15 years, it has just been a flood of supply. Having the right supply, it has shortened the cycles. I think we're setting up where, if you look whether it's 2027 beyond, we're going to set up for a multi-year cycle.
Got it. Just to close out on this point on Montgomery , on that same note, maybe to play devil's advocate a little bit, is there a risk that you see share shift to asset-based carriers as shippers want that certainty? Again, obviously huge partners like yourselves, but honestly, there's probably a handful of guys of your size and your expertise out there. So, what's that asset- light versus asset- heavy shift looking like?
Shocker that you want to play devil's advocate.
That's my job.
I know it is, Ravi.
Every guy knows.
For sure. W e actually think it's the exact opposite. The last thing shippers are going to want to do is increase more complexity and more cost into the equation, and go directly to the carrier. From our standpoint, what is the value prop of the broker? It is an aggregator of supply, to Kevin's point, high-quality supply, to go ahead and hook up many independent contractors, independent drivers with those shippers. You think about the composition of the fleets that are out there, 92% of the fleets that are out there in this country have less than 10 power units.
Fortune 1000 shippers are not dealing with that many carriers in terms of what needs to get done from a process standpoint, from a billing standpoint, from a vetting standpoint. That is our value prop. I think we actually see the exact opposite occurring. You are going to see shippers partner with large brokers like an RXO in even a more aggressive way.
Think about what you have heard this week, how difficult it is for asset-based carriers to get drivers.
Absolutely. That's been absolutely a theme.
Think about that as you think about the next couple of years. It's so difficult for them to find drivers. They'll obviously look for a high-quality driver. That kind of limits a little bit of the amount of capacity it can provide. Whereas as a broker, we can come in, we've got access to over 100,000 carriers, over 1 million power units. So we've got access to the capacity that an asset-based guy might have trouble getting because of the driver situation, how tight it is.
Before we leave this topic, Kevin reminded me, with his comment there, in terms of some of the other news that we've heard this week at your conference, just to be clear, diesel is not a headwind for RXO.
Absolutely. I just wanted to emphasize that because I think it is a really important point given the move up that we have seen in diesel pricing over the last, call it month or so. It is a pass-through. Through the cycle, there is no material impact to our P&L. You think about more difficult to find capacity, that Kevin just talked about. That is a good thing for our business. Higher diesel prices, it is a fuel surcharge onto our shippers. No impact at all to the business. I just wanted to emphasize that.
Great. So lots of supply-side catalysts industry wide. You guys are gaining share idiosyncratically. Coyote Logistics is firing on all cylinders. What does that feel like in terms of the rate opportunity as you go into bid season for next year, and maybe pivot back from spot into contract as you renew contracts?
It's a great call. I mean, we've seen so much momentum on our revenue per load in the business from earlier this year to now. I think in the month of July, we talked about our revenue per load alone was up almost 25% year-on-year. That's excluding fuel, and that's excluding length of haul. That's pure rate. That's obviously a function of both spot and contract on a blended basis. We talked about in the positive update last week that we are still phasing in higher contractual rates. We expect that to continue, no doubt in part due to the supply-driven recovery that we're seeing.
Even though we're in what remains a slow soft demand environment, the reality is for the prevailing rate in the overall for-hire truckload market, it's just the intersection of supply and aggregate demand. So much capacity has come out that it's yielded an inflationary environment. We finally did have a slightly positive Cass update the other day, but you think about rates up in the spot market more than 30% year-over-year with, prior to this month update on Cass, shipments being down year-on-year for the industry every single month since January 2023 is a testament to how much capacity's come out.
We certainly think that we're going to be continuing to phase in newer and higher contractual rates through the end of this year, and as you think about that phasing, that will also obviously be a tailwind into 2027.
Got it. I think that demand part where you said it's still pretty soft, I guess that was the only maybe little bit of an offset to your message in the update last week. Obviously, industry-wide, nothing you can do about it, but are you seeing any green shoots, any forward look at all? Does it feel like people are paralyzed by situation in the Middle East, high inflation? Obviously, we've got a rate hike today. Does it feel like that's the new world? If that's the new world, is this where we're going to be? Or do shippers say, guess what? We just need to move on, and we will start building inventory from here?
To be clear, when I am talking about demand softness, that is industry-wide.
I understood what you were saying.
We are not seeing that at RXO. RXO volume is growing, and we are going to be growing low to mid-single-digits year-on-year in Q3 despite that.
Different sectors of the economy, we're seeing different things. I think in industrial manufacturing clearly has been stronger year to date. Anything consumer related given, obviously to your point, higher interest rates, higher mortgage rates, 30 years now at 7%, crude through 100, clearly weighing on consumer sentiment. I think that's how we think about it. Two sides of the economy, industrial manufacturing data center on one side, consumer on the other, housing on the other. But the fortunate position that we're in is, given the strength of our pipeline, we're able to offset the broader market weakness and continue to gain share in a more accelerated way versus the rest of the market.
Got it. Wanted to switch gears a little bit, talk about Coyote Logistics. Kevin, you mentioned that in your earlier remarks about how that's allowing you to go to market in a much more front-footed way, if you will. Talk about how that's realizing customer conversions, pricing gains. Obviously, you've delivered the synergies on the cost side. What can we expect Coyote Logistics to bring to the table in the upcycle from a revenue perspective?
I think first and foremost, scale. What made Coyote Logistics attractive, not only was it from the customer base, we're very different customer base. They were strong in food and beverage and transportation, and we were strong in retail, e-commerce, industrial. So it's a very different customer base. You know this, when you do brokerage M&A, if there's a lot of customer concentration, customer overlap, it just doesn't work. From that standpoint, the customer base is very different than ours.
But two, the carrier base is very different than ours. RXO kind of built their carrier base on the small carriers. Jared was talking about this earlier, guys with less than 10 trucks. Coyote Logistics built their carrier base on larger fleets, with private fleets, access to private fleets, and really kind of finding backhaul opportunities for private fleets. That's key because if you're a private fleet, you've got a heavy fixed cost infrastructure, own the equipment, run the assets. But then if you can find a backhaul lane for that private fleet, that just really helps them out a lot, and that's how they built that business. So now we've got access to the RXO small fleet, the private fleets, looking for backhaul opportunities, just better pricing.
But that scale now going to market. I was just on the floor this week, Jared and I were both in Charlotte this week, and just being on the floor talking to some of the ex-RXO people, how excited they are to have access to such a more fleet. Just more opportunities to buy better.
Got it. That is great to hear. So we're kind of coming to the last 10 minutes here. I wanted to kind of shift gears a little bit and talk about one of our favorite topics, which is technology and AI implementation. Nine months ago, you guys were super generous to invite me out to see what you were building. It seemed very exciting nine months ago. I'm sure a lot has happened since.
You should come back.
Thank you for that. I will absolutely take you up on that.
You're welcome anytime, Ravi.
But maybe give us a sneak peek on what you guys have done in the last nine months. What's been rolled out, what's in the pipeline, what's yet to come?
I touched on this a little bit earlier, but I want to expand on it because it's so important. Technology has the ability to, what we believe, structurally improve the margins for RXO and the rest of the industry over the long term. And when we think about technology, we think about it holistically across our key pillars. It's volume, it's margin, it's productivity, and it's service. We're not building tech for the sake of building tech. If it doesn't check the box on one of those key pillars, if it doesn't drive a strong return, we're not going to do it.
That is our key philosophy, and it's so important because ultimately it has the potential to really move up the profitability and the operating margins of the industry longer term. What have we been keenly focused on? No doubt, if you look at any of our earnings materials or listen to our calls, the number one thing we continue to highlight is the success and the progress we've seen with our AI spot quote agent.
I think we talked about it when you were out in Chicago, and the deployment of that is widespread across the organization. We're seeing unbelievable success across cohorts that have been adopting it in aggressive ways. You're seeing relative to prior in terms of an improvement in both gross profit per load and an improvement in truckload volume when compared to not using it. It is now fully deployed.
Having that ability for any of our customer reps to have access to this tech at their station without leaving the environment that they're in, where you get an inbound request from a customer, from a shipper, and instead of going to 17 different screens to build the order and figure out what the right price is, which impacts your response time, and then shockingly, there's a pretty strong correlation between response time and actually winning the load. You're now able to go ahead and do it in a seamless environment where a request comes in and instantaneously we're pinging our real-time pricing algorithms on the back end, we know exactly based on 20 years' worth of data between legacy RXO and legacy Coyote Logistics. It's so imperative to make sure that you've got a clean data lake. At least that's what my CIO tells me.
When you think about the cleanliness of that data, the ability to go ahead and do that on a real time basis, you've got an order coming in at a specific time, on a specific day, on a specific lane, we know with a pretty good probability what we need to go back to that shipper to win that rate based on our proprietary data. That's really, really powerful. When you think about unleashing that across the organization, what does that yield? It yields incremental margin a t strong profitability. Incremental gross profit dollars drop from gross profit to EBITDA anywhere between 60% and 80%, you're obviously seeing a lot of that operating leverage play out in real time right now, given the strength of our results.
You are also seeing that in terms of the ability for us to grow the business without meaningfully adding to headcount. That is also such an important point. We think about the ability to grow our volume by 30%, 40%, 50% over, call it the medium term. How do we do that? With a fraction of incremental headcount additions to really drive strong, powerful operating margins in the business.
Great. One of the things you showed me when I was there was a to-do list slide where you had a bunch of green items already rolled out, a bunch of white items in development, a bunch of yellow items, TBD in the future. What does that ratio of white, green, yellow look like right now?
Highly confident everything that you saw that was in development is now all in green. I think that is a really important point where it does not just go green and then we are done. It's green, and then we iterate and we've got a whole set of incremental initiatives that we're going to deploy across the organization. Because it's not just an AI spot quote agent. How are we thinking about deploying both agentic and generative? How are we thinking about deploying it across all of our lines of business between managed transportation, last mile, and our complimentary services? We obviously spent a majority of the time here talking about brokerage because it's the lion's share of our business, more than 70% of revenue. But the ability to speed onboardings within managed transportation, where we manage $4 billion of freight under management.
We're the largest provider of managed expedite in North America. There's a strong relationship between our brokerage business and our managed trans business. If we can deploy AI and technology in more aggressive ways to speed up onboarding, that's really, really helpful from an efficiency standpoint and can help grow the flywheel. Same thing within our last mile business. Just getting more efficient throughout the entire organization and constantly making sure that we're challenging ourselves to find the next best thing to continue to invest in.
Got it. When you think of the holy grail of technology implementation here, which is a completely automated transaction from origination to execution, billing, settlement, where are you in that life cycle right now? What percentage of that transaction do you think is fully automated? What percentage of what part of the transaction is fully automated, and when do we get to that 100%?
I'm not sure I agree with the premise that that's necessarily the holy grail. Because I do want to emphasize that we think about not only deploying tech, but we deploy it from the perspective of having a human in the loop. We think the relationship is so important in this business. This is a people-based business. If you think about what we spend our money on any given year, irrespective of the cyclicality, it's our people, it's our technology, and it's our real estate.
Those are our three largest costs. When we think about going to market, there is a huge opportunity, and I agree with the premise of the question, that ultimately, can we become more efficient in terms of increasing the productivity of our people from a loads per person per day standpoint? The answer to that is absolutely yes. Can we be more efficient on automating back office as we think about order to cash ? Absolutely, yes. But do we want to completely cut out the human in the middle? The answer is absolutely no, where ultimately we think about our sales organization across the business. We want to make sure that we've got multiple touchpoints across the organization, from inside sales to outside sales, with multiple different contacts at our shippers to really build our strategic relationships.
What our tech folks, our senior tech product folks always say is, how do we go ahead and empower and enable our people to become more efficient so they are spending more time building relationships with our shippers? Because that's going to yield to better results over the long term.
Great. Can we unpack that a little bit because that's a very important point here. Candidly, one of your peers has made a big deal about talking about massive headcount reductions because of AI. I think they've said they can increase their transactions by 10x without adding headcount, which seems like a staggering number. Seems like you have a very, very different philosophy to what productivity looks like in an AI-driven world, and a very different philosophy to headcount. Can you just kind of differentiate that a little bit and kind of talk about why your approach is maybe better than theirs?
We have a ton of respect for our largest competitor, and we see them every day, and they have had incredibly strong results, and they're doing a fantastic job. But on the margin, are there some incremental differences? For sure, in terms of human in the loop, thinking about that relationship. I do think there's probably more in common than not as it relates to ultimately can tech drive productivity? I think the answer to that is yes. We have seen a reduction in our brokerage headcount. It's down, call it mid-teens percent year-over-year. But I do think that the point that we fundamentally believe that leveraging relationships with technology is a winning proposition over the long term.
Got it. That is super helpful. Any questions from the audience here? We have one there and one up front.
Thank you. Could you talk a little bit about your expectations around insurance costs as we look towards renewal of insurance next year, both for yourself but also for the broader industry, and kind of the range you see for the broader industry, and if that could precipitate share gains for you into next year?
For sure. The answer to the last part of your question is absolutely, in terms of facilitating share gains, when we think about the fact that RXO is in such a strong competitive position relative to the many brokers that are out there, especially the small to medium brokers. There are even some large-scale brokers that don't have robust insurance towers like we do. We're towered up like an asset-based carrier with $100 million per incident, and that's really, really robust. When we think about the premiums that are running through our P&L associated with excess casualty, which I think is what the question was, as we think about the potential premium increase heading into 2027, what we said and continue to believe is that we will be materially better than the rest of the industry.
There have been some crazy estimates that have been out there. You need to put things in perspective that when you hear some of these large increases, not all brokers are created equal, and they're not coming from the same starting place. We're fully towered up. We've got best-in-class vetting, best-in-class safety, really strong processes that are internally built, and we leverage technology, which is why we've had significantly better than industry rate increases over the last few years. Based on feedback that we're hearing from our insurance partners, we expect to be materially better than industry in terms of rate of change increase heading into 2027 as well. When we're in a position to sort of give that estimate, we certainly will as we continue into the renewal cycle, which will be later this year. We feel very, very good about our position heading into 2027.
Do you have a sense of what the industry number might look like?
The range of estimates is so wide, Ravi, because ultimately, when you're dealing with a base of competitors that may not have even insurance at all or very de minimis amount, you've seen estimates that are up there, which is 5x. Because ultimately you're dealing with smaller brokers that don't have any of those benefits that I just described, too.
You've seen crazy estimates that are out there for the industry. When we think about the competitive position that we're in, the years of processes that we've built, and going back to what we talked about earlier, foundationally, how was RXO built? It was built on mission-critical freight, high cargo value. When that's the starting place, you're in a really, really good spot because the vetting processes are so robust. We feel really good about our position heading into 2027.
Ravi, some of those things too, the small brokers, to Jared's point, you don't have insurance. Your premium is going to go up a lot. It might go from zero. Or if you just don't have the compliance and vetting that we have, maybe just rely on government data, which what is it, FMCSA, they only rate like 8% of the carriers or something? If your compliance and vetting, if that's it, you're going to be paying a lot more if you can even get insurance.
Got it. Any last questions? Got a little bit of overtime here.
I know we talked a lot about truck brokerage, but it'd be helpful to hear a bit more about last mile and your managed transportation business, how you see those businesses scaling over the next few years, especially if we do see an upcycle.
Absolutely. Managed transportation, we are executing incredibly well. We talked about onboarding $100 million of freight under management additionally in Q2, another $100 million in July. We are now north of $4 billion of freight under management within managed transportation. That is extremely synergistic with our brokerage business, where ultimately we service that freight well. Brokerage has the ability to be a carrier to our managed transportation business, and it helps the organic growth of the combined business. The pipeline there is quite strong, and the team continues to win, get awarded new business, and onboard significant amounts of freight under management. In last mile, the team has executed incredibly well in what has been clearly a soft housing market like we talked about.
The team has punched out top growth over the last few years because we are gaining share in a pretty significant way relative to our competitors. Notwithstanding the fact that clearly we talked about Q3 being a seasonally slow period for last mile and some additional headwinds that have already been factored in to outlook, which we are more than offsetting with the core strength in our brokerage business. When we think about last mile, we are the undisputed industry leader in last mile with number one share. Ultimately, to Kevin's point earlier, we believe we are setting up for a multi-year recovery.
When we have a housing recovery, whenever that may occur, not only will it benefit the brokerage business and the freight for RXO and for the industry as it sucks up industry capacity, we will have a double benefit within RXO because it will also be a tailwind for our last mile business.
Great. Gentlemen, thank you for bringing the energy to the last session of the day. Thank you.
Pleasure. Always, Ravi.
Thanks for joining us.
Thanks for having us. Appreciate it.