Welcome to Citi's 2026 Global Property CEO Conference. I'm Anthony Pettinari with Citi Research, and we're very pleased to have with us Rayonier, and CEO Mark McHugh and CFO Wayne Wasechek. This session is for Citi clients, and disclosures have been made available at the corporate access desk. To ask a question, you can raise your hand or go to liveqa.com and enter code GPC26 to submit questions. Mark, I'm gonna turn it over to you to introduce Rayonier, and we'll get into the Q&A.
Yeah. Thanks, Anthony, and thank you to Citi for hosting us today. I'm gonna start by providing a high level overview of Rayonier for those that are less familiar with the story, including some highlights of our recent merger with PotlatchDeltic, and then we'll make sure to leave plenty of time for Q&A. Just for reference, I'm going to be speaking to the presentation that was posted to our website on Monday, under the heading, Future Presentation. All right, so let's start on page 4, which lays out the rationale for our recent merger of equals with PotlatchDeltic. Really the key theme here is we believe that this combination creates a stronger organization that will allow the combined company to realize benefits that neither of us could have achieved independently.
In terms of the strategic benefits, the deal significantly expands our timberland portfolio, which now comprises about 4.1 million acres. It also enhances our platform to realize value from both land-based solutions as well as HBU real estate. And lastly, it offers exposure to an efficient and scalable wood products manufacturing business, which really gives us another lever with which to optimize our overall portfolio value. In terms of the financial benefits, first and foremost, we're targeting annual run rate synergies of $40 million, which should translate to significant value upside. We also believe that the larger scale and better trading liquidity of the combined company will translate to an improved cost of capital over time.
Lastly, from a balance sheet standpoint, you know, the combined company is very well positioned with a conservative leverage profile and significant capital allocation flexibility. Again, putting all that all together, we really believe that this merger creates a much stronger competitor in the space. We think this is going to enhance our strategic optionality going forward. Skipping ahead to slide six. Here we provided an overview of the asset profile of the combined company. Again, we now own approximately 4.1 million acres of timberland, including roughly 3.2 million acres across the U.S. South and about 930,000 acres in the Northwest, primarily in Idaho and Washington. In addition, we own six sawmills with total capacity of 1.2 billion board feet annually, as well as one plywood facility.
On the real estate side, we now have three real estate development projects with the addition of Chenal Valley from the PotlatchDeltic portfolio. We now also have an opportunity to really leverage a leading rural HBU platform over a much larger footprint of land. Lastly, within land-based solutions, the combined company now has 80,000 acres under option for solar development, as well as 154,000 acres under lease for carbon capture and storage. Notably, over three-quarters of the combined company's portfolio is in the U.S. South, and that's really the area where we see the most long-term upside potential from land-based solutions. On slide seven, we've highlighted some of the key trends that are driving really future value creation opportunities within the portfolio.
They all generally center around transitioning land use towards a higher value purpose, such as rural HBU, real estate development or land-based solutions. Rural HBU is a business that's been part of our strategy for a long time. You know, we generally sell 1% to 1.5% of our land base into HBU markets, typically at premiums ranging from 50% to over 100% above timberland value. That's a business that's been very consistent for us over time. Land-based solutions and real estate development, that's really where we see the significant growth opportunity for the company longer term.
Our land-based solutions business includes activities such as leasing land for solar development, leasing land or really subsurface pore space rights for carbon capture and storage, or monetizing carbon stored in standing timber inventory into the carbon offset market. Our real estate development business involves investing in entitlements and horizontal infrastructure improvements really with a view towards enhancing the value of those lands and establishing a catalyst for growth in those areas. We only do this in very select market areas, you know, really where we stand to benefit. Our portfolio stands to benefit from those investments in the adjacent portfolio. This next slide illustrates why we're so excited about these new growth opportunities.
You know, what this chart shows is the potential value uplift per acre that we believe can be achieved by transitioning land use into some of these alternative land uses. You know, for example, if you take an acre of U.S. South timberland that has a value of, say, you know, $2,000-$3,000 an acre, and you're able to transition that acre into a carbon capture and storage lease, that has the potential to increase the value of that acre by up to five times. If you're able to transition that acre into a solar land lease or an unimproved development use, that has the potential to increase the value of that acre by up to 10 times.
If we're able to transition that acre into an improved development use, like our projects in Wildlight, Heartwood, and Chenal Valley, we believe that has the potential to increase the value of that acre by up to 15 times. You know, we really see significant value creation potential from optimizing land use, especially as we grow the number of acres within the portfolio that we believe are suitable for these alternative land uses. Slide nine provides an overview of the combined company's timberland portfolio. Again, roughly 3.2 million acres in the U.S. South and about 930,000 acres in the Northwest. As you can see from this visual, the portfolio is very well diversified in both regions. As we've discussed in the past, timber supply-demand dynamics are highly localized in nature.
We really, you know, we really think there's a benefit in the diversification of this merger from our shareholders' perspective. Skipping ahead to slide 11, we provide a snapshot of the company's wood products manufacturing operations. Again, as I noted earlier, we have roughly 1.2 billion board feet of lumber capacity across six sawmills, which positions the combined company as a top 10 lumber producer in the United States. While Rayonier didn't historically own manufacturing assets prior to the merger, we're certainly excited about the opportunity to integrate what we see as a very low cost and large scale lumber platform into the portfolio going forward.
Skipping ahead to slide 14, I'll just touch briefly on our real estate business and some of the trends that we've been seeing there. Over the last decade, both Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic have seen significant increases in our HBU value realizations. Both companies have also seen a shift in our sales mix towards these higher value development sales. You know, we're certainly encouraged by the fact that land values continue to appreciate, you know, despite some challenges that we've seen in timber markets here of late. Again, we're very excited about the prospect of combining these operations and leveraging that HBU platform over a much larger land base post-merger. Skipping ahead to slide 16, here we provide an overview of some of our focus areas within land-based solutions.
We've been working very hard over the last few years to build up a pipeline of opportunities in land-based solutions. This pipeline should translate to meaningful cash flow growth in the coming years. As I noted earlier, we have roughly 80,000 acres under option for solar development and over 150,000 acres under lease for CCS. As we start to see some of these solar options convert into long-term leases, and as some of those CCS leases ultimately convert over to injection royalties, you know, this really should drive significant growth in cash flow per acre relative to what we're able to generate on those lands currently through our timber operations. We also see a lot of upside in carbon markets long term.
Key buyers of carbon offsets are increasingly looking for very large scale projects to meet their net zero ambitions, and we feel like the combined company is going to be much better positioned to be that, you know, potential supplier of choice into the carbon offset market. Lastly, I'll just wrap up with some of our capital allocation priorities on slide 18. You know, one of the key factors that really allowed this merger to come together is the fact that both companies shared a very similar philosophy around capital allocation. You know, our mantra around capital allocation has always been to be nimble and opportunistic with a view towards building long-term value per share. That's absolutely going to remain our focus going forward.
More specifically, just to touch on some of those priorities, we plan on maintaining our investment-grade credit rating, returning capital to shareholders through sustainable dividends, repurchasing our shares opportunistically and longer term, investing in value creative growth opportunities, you know, when it makes sense to do so. With all that said, we certainly see buybacks as one of the more compelling capital allocation alternatives available to us today. I note that we have been active in the buyback market here recently. In closing, I'll just reiterate, you know, we believe we're very well positioned post-merger to create value for shareholders, and we're looking forward to getting through the merger integration. With that, Anthony, happy to open up to questions.
Great. Thanks, Mark. That was an extremely helpful introduction. Maybe if we can go into the individual businesses in a little more detail, and I'd encourage people to jump in with questions. Maybe if we can just start off with timberlands and in the South, can you talk about market conditions for in terms of pricing, activity, maybe broad thoughts on 2026 for your core timberlands business, what you're seeing?
Yeah, sure. 2025 was certainly a tough year in the southern timber business. It was kind of a perfect storm of hurricane salvage volume in one of our larger market areas in the wake of Hurricane Helene in late 2024, coupled with, you know, really dry weather conditions that just kind of exacerbated that supply imbalance. You couple that with some mill shutdowns we saw in the area. You know, it was certainly a challenging year. We certainly saw some pricing headwinds. We feel as though that that's largely settled out. We have guided toward, you know, modest uptick in pricing in 2026 relative to 2025.
You know, again, just kinda feel like we're bouncing off the bottom a little bit here, but overall, we think we're through some of the more challenging elements of, you know, what we've seen in the last 12 months.
Right. Is there any kind of distinction you'd make between kind of sawlog market conditions and pulpwood market conditions? Then, you know, within the South, are you seeing any kind of variation between, you know, maybe coastal markets, inland markets? Any comments there?
Yeah, sure. I mean, in terms of sawlogs, I mean, we certainly saw greater stability in sawlog pricing in 2025 relative to pulpwood pricing. Again, we talked about kind of what the factors driving some of those declines we saw in pulpwood pricing. You know, the longer term story or set up for sawlog markets I think is more constructive. We have seen a fair amount of capacity come out of Canada. We have seen U.S. mills ramping up production in response to that. You know, even in a relatively flat demand environment, we would expect to, you know, see some momentum in sawtimber prices in 2026.
Just in terms of you know, geographic differences between inland and coastal, you know, look, the coastal markets historically have been, you know, our strongest markets from a pricing standpoint. You know, particularly, pulpwood pricing there has historically been very strong. That's also where we've seen, you know, some of the greater weakness here of late in terms of those price declines. I will say that those markets remain some of the strongest markets in the U.S. South. The pulpwood pricing in those areas, even with these declines, is still among the best in the U.S. South, but it's certainly been the area where we've seen some of these, you know, stiffer headwinds in the last 12 months.
I'm wondering if you can give us the same walk through for the Northwest and maybe touch upon the Idaho index pricing, which is a little unique.
Yeah. I'll maybe turn it over to Wayne to touch on that.
Yeah. Our Northwest region, the pricing dynamics are a little bit different than the U.S. South, where, especially in Idaho, we're the largest private landowner in the state of Idaho. We own over 625,000 acres. In that market, because of our large presence, we're able to have an indexing arrangement in that market. What that does is we're indexed to the price of lumber. About approximately 75% of our sawlogs are indexed to the price of lumber, and certainly that provides a benefit to us and where markets trend upwards. You know, it also provides benefits to our customers as well because they have a dedicated supply of logs that they need to run their mills.
It benefits both sides, certainly on our timberland business, where we've, especially, you know, during that kind of COVID, post-COVID era, we saw significant upside in log prices because of that indexing arrangement as, you know, compared to what we've experienced with some.
Just given the product mix in the Northwest, you know, we're upwards of 85%, you know, sawtimber relative to pulpwood, where that mix in the U.S. South, you know, tends to be more, you know, kind of a 50/50 balance. You certainly have more direct exposure to what's going on in lumber markets, and you tend to see, kind of a tighter correlation to what's happening in lumber pricing in log markets in the Northwest relative to the South.
Great. Great. I'm wondering if you could talk about, we talked about logs. I'm wondering if you could talk about the market for timberlands themselves in terms of trends you're seeing, you know, dollar per acre valuations, you know, sales activity, you know, how you compare that versus the last couple of years.
Yeah. You know, like we talked about on our last quarter earnings call, you know, timberland valuations continue to be very strong in the private market. You know, by our account, there's, you know, around $10 billion of capital available for timberland M&A. You know, we typically see, you know, $2 billion-$3 billion of timberland assets trade hands on an annual basis. You know, there's not a lot in the market right now, but valuations have certainly held up very well. You know, again, we talked about how that impacts our HBU business as well. We've seen a very strong trajectory in land prices and HBU values. We certainly haven't seen it in the stock price. Again, we, you know, we've been capitalizing on that from a buyback standpoint here recently.
Great. In terms of timberland returns, can you kind of level set us in terms of, you know, maybe what level of returns Southern wood timberland owners are targeting and maybe the components of those returns, how that's changed, or if there's, you know, a way to think about cap rate for timber?
You know, recognize that, timberland is generally underwritten on a, you know, discounted cash flow basis using real discount rates. Those real discount rates are generally kind of in the 4%-5% range. Call it 4%-5% real or on a nominal basis, you know, assuming kind of 2%-2.5% inflation, you know, probably call it, you know, 6%-7%. I guess the way that timberland generates return is quite a bit different than other asset classes in the sense that, you know, your timber harvest cash flow is one component of that return, but then you have these other components of return, such as productivity enhancements.
The fact that, you know, the stands that we're harvesting today were planted 25 years ago using, you know, then current tree genetics, then current silviculture applications. The stands that we're planting today, we expect to get greater productivity off of over time. Obviously, HBU is also incremental to that. The fact that within our Southern portfolio, you know, we're typically selling, you know, 1% to one and a half percent of that portfolio annually, again, at premiums 100+% above timberland value. That's added to that return as well. Really the new component of growth we've talked a lot about is land-based solutions.
That ability to convert, land that, you know, as timber is generating, call it, you know, $75-$80 per acre EBITDA into these alternative uses that can generate, you know, 5, 10, 15 times that. It's a little bit, if you look at a pure EBITDA multiple on private market timberland transactions based on harvest cash flows, those multiples are typically 40 times. That doesn't really tell the whole story around what people are underwriting from a return standpoint.
I don't know if there's any questions. You know, if we can move to wood products. Before we talk about kind of market conditions within wood products and lumber, just wondering, you know, PotlatchDeltic had the most sensitivity to lumber prices or leverage to lumber prices of the timber REITs. Rayonier didn't have a wood products business. As the two come together, I'm just wondering if you kind of philosophically how you think about the place of wood products within the portfolio, maybe over the cycle?
Yeah. You know, again, we find the addition of this manufacturing platform into the portfolio, you know, we find that to be appealing long term. I think, you know, our thinking, Rayonier's thinking over the years has certainly shifted a bit in terms of openness to owning manufacturing assets. Some of that is just around our ability to control our own destiny in markets that are important to us. We've talked a lot about growth-to-drain ratios and how those can impact timber economics in local markets. Historically, Rayonier didn't really have an ability to influence the drain or the consumption of timber in any given market area.
You know, particularly as we've seen some headwinds and some mill shuts in some market areas that are important to us, you know, suffice it to say, I think we see some value in the ability to control our own destiny. You know, Rayonier was never going to go out and build a greenfield mill or buy a mill on a one-off basis. That wasn't a core competency of the company. Now with this, you know, very efficient, low cost, scalable wood products manufacturing platform, that's at least something that we can look at on a go-forward basis.
That's not to suggest that we have ambitions to meaningfully grow that business, but we kind of look at it as another tool in the capital allocation toolkit with which we can optimize the overall portfolio value of the company.
Great. Great. Then just moving to wood products kind of market conditions. You guided to kind of a $112 million EBITDA, you know, modest recovery. I think Random Lengths prices are up maybe 15% year-to-date. We've seen this a little, you know, kind of a lumber recovery. I'm just wondering if you'd talk about current market conditions and any kind of read-throughs as we get into kind of the spring building season.
Yeah, I mean, we saw a nice lift in lumber prices early in the year. It's kind of flattened off here in the last few weeks, but still kind of meaningfully higher than what we saw, you know, call it four to six months ago. You know, overall, I'd say a positive backdrop certainly relative to the second half of 2025. Really what I think is gonna drive potential incremental price improvement is really some incremental relief in mortgage rates, some incremental, you know, demand on new home construction, on R&R activity. Again, we've talked a lot about the mortgage lock-in effect, the impact that that's had on resale activity, and that's certainly hampered R&R demand.
You know, people tend to remodel a home either right after they buy it or just before they're about to sell it. The fact that there's been this sort of dearth of resale activity here of late, certainly been a headwind for R&R spending. You know, again, if we see some incremental, you know, mortgage rates kind of briefly drop below 6%, and so it's kind of a big headline that that was sort of a psychological hurdle for a lot of people. I think we're modestly above that right now, but trending in the right direction. Again, overall more constructive backdrop, we think, than kind of where we were sitting six, nine months ago.
Great. Great. I mean, last year we saw tariffs, import duty, Section 232. I mean, Canadian lumber, I think, went to 35%, but we didn't necessarily see big improvement in U.S. lumber prices. I'm just wondering if you could talk about the dynamic with Canadian lumber and the tariffs or the import duties, if you're seeing maybe a lagged impact or how you think about that. I don't know if there's a way to think about sort of cash costs for maybe some of these higher cost producers.
Yeah. I mean, we didn't see the immediate impact that, you know, perhaps some had anticipated, but I do think the more recent lumber price response we've seen has been largely supply driven. I mean, demand has been, you know, relatively flattish. You know, we have seen some lumber price growth here in the last few months, and I think that that was supply driven. I do think that that was related to the duties, the increase in the duties as well as the Section 232 tariff. Again, you know, overall, you know, Canadian mills are generally not profitable today with the duties and the impact of the tariffs, that has really accrued to the benefit of U.S. mills.
You know, again, that's translated to some lumber price improvements. We ultimately think that that will translate to sawtimber price improvements as well.
Great. Great. You talked about real estate, but I'm wondering, I guess two questions here. First, you know, the guide that you gave for I think $180 million-$200 million of EBITDA, if there's any sort of finer point that you can put on, you know, mix, property types, you know, sort of HBU values that are embedded in that guidance. Yeah, sure.
Yeah, we generally don't provide a breakdown within our real estate guidance. You know, as we talked about extensively in the past, real estate results tend to be pretty lumpy. They tend to be driven by, you know, a handful of larger transactions. We're always kind of generally managing to kind of an overall annual target. There is some cadence to this business. When you own millions of acres, some portion of it invariably falls out into this HBU market. There is some level of predictability there.
Again, when we're trying to kind of guide to what is a, kind of reasonable expectation of what the next year looks like, you know, we generally point to the historical averages, and that's, you know, we're gonna sell 1.5% of our land base in the U.S. South and, you know, generally targeting, you know, 50+% premiums above timberland value. Like I said on the earnings call, those have more recently been trending, you know, well higher than that. I mean, for with the Rayonier portfolio, we've been realizing premiums, you know, well in excess of 100%. That business has really been a bright spot in the portfolio.
Like I said, land values have continued to appreciate, which makes sense kind of in the environment that we're in, kind of, you know, flight to quality, hard asset value. You know, again, it's logical that land values have continued to move up. We're really trying to capitalize on that through our HBU business.
Great.
No real kind of color on the specific breakdown within that real estate guidance.
Right. Right. Maybe sticking with real estate, I mean, you have these unique development properties with Wildlight, Heartwood, Chenal Valley. Can you just talk a little bit more about those and sort of Rayonier's role, like what you're doing, what, you know, the earnings contribution?
Yeah, our role is really to get entitlements on the land and to make investments in horizontal infrastructure improvements. We're not doing any vertical development. We're not looking to produce, you know, income-generating assets through that business. We're really, you know, creating that catalyst for growth, you know, investing in those horizontal improvements that then, you know, meaningfully enhance the values in that area. Just to be clear, our strategy here has always been about, you know, really enhancing value over a larger footprint of land. When we initiated that Wildlight project, we said, "Look, if we own 1,000 acres here, we would never undertake this project." We don't aspire to be real estate developers. You know, candidly, at the time, it wasn't really a core competency of the company.
I think it has become a core competency of the company, over the last decade. Really the play for us was always, we own this, you know, very unique high-value portfolio of land, but importantly, we own 50,000 acres within a 10-mile radius of Wildlight. The play for us has always been to, you know, have those investments, stand on their own from a, you know, competitive return standpoint. Really the broader play for us is enhance the value of all of that surrounding land, that we own in that area. You know, if you look at, you go north from downtown Jacksonville, you know, 20 miles, you get to A1A, the intersection of A1A and I-95.
You know, Rayonier essentially owns the vast majority of the land in the northeast and northwest quadrant of that intersection of A1A and I-95. It is a very unique portfolio of land. It's an area where it really was poised to benefit from these types of investments, and we've been really pleased with the momentum that we've seen in that project. Again, Heartwood was a very similar story, approximate to Savannah, Georgia. Chenal Valley is a bit of a different play in the sense that that project started back in, I believe, in the mid-1980s. It's in the relatively, late stages of its life cycle. But it, you know, pretty consistently generates 100 to 130 finished lot sales annually.
It's a pretty steady contributor to earnings at this point, but relatively stable, whereas Wildlight and Heartwood are certainly in a more early innings, you know, and we're anticipating a pretty meaningful growth trajectory from where we are currently.
Great. Great. You know, land-based solutions. Can you talk more about, you know, solar CCS, I guess mineral land resources and carbon markets? If you were to frame those four opportunities, you know, from kind of a near-term perspective and then a long-term perspective, can you just walk us through your exposure and where you maybe see kind of the most upside?
Yeah. I mean, I'll start with the near-term perspective. I think solar probably has the most kind of visible growth opportunity as we sit here today. As I noted in the presentation, we have roughly 80,000 acres under option for solar development. We currently only have 600 acres that are actually in a solar lease. Really the opportunity is that as those options mature and they're, you know, some portion of those options are ultimately converted into solar land leases, that will translate to a very meaningful lift in cash flow. Again, you know, generated call it $75-$80 per acre of EBITDA last year in our southern timber business.
The rents that we're seeing on these solar land leases are, you know, upwards of 800 or even $1,000 an acre. Very meaningful lift in cash flow, and we're solely acting as a landlord. It's essentially, you know, 100% EBITDA-free cash flow conversion for us. We don't have any capital obligations associated with those leases, and they generally have some form of, you know, CPI-type escalator in them, typically with, you know, 25-plus year terms, with multiple extension options. We view that very high quality and probably high multiple cash flow. That's a very meaningful opportunity for us.
You know, given all the work that we've put into building up that option portfolio, really in the last three years, you know, we expect that that's gonna start to turn over and, you know, start to materialize in leases here over the course of the next couple years. Again, that's probably the most, you know, visible, tangible near-term opportunity. You know, in terms of carbon markets, I'd say that's an area where we've probably gotten more bullish in the last couple years. You know, candidly, for Rayonier, the economics of selling carbon credits just hadn't ever really worked for our portfolio, just given the relative price point that we could sell timber in most of the markets that we're in.
You know, recognize you have to do something different on the land base to generate carbon credits. You can't just continue to harvest timber and sell carbon credits on top of that. You need some form of harvest deferral or investment in incremental, you know, carbon stocking on the land in order to merit the carbon credits. We're now seeing with some of these large scale buyers coming into the market, and again, really wanting these large scale projects, they're willing to pay for quality projects. That pricing and that sort of relative NPV map, I'd say is getting much more compelling relative to what we saw even just two to three years ago. You know, doing a lot of work on that front right now, and again, pretty optimistic about the long-term prospects for that business.
Again, also optimistic about our ability to be a meaningful supplier into that market with the combined company. The large scale buyers, they want very large scale projects, and that necessitates a large land base to support that. Again, we think the merger really positions us well in that market. Carbon capture and storage, you know, that's one that we're, again, likewise very optimistic about, but it's taking longer to materialize. You know, these Class VI injection well permits just take a long time to kind of work through. Again, we have 154,000 acres under lease for CCS currently, but we're working through the process of getting those sites, you know, with the counterparties to get those sites ultimately permitted.
Where we see the big lift on those or potentially the big lift on those is when those lease payments convert over to injection royalties. Again, there's a long process to get to that point. Probably longer dated as we kind of think about how that might contribute to cash flow, but very optimistic about the pipeline we have currently to support that over the long term.
Great. Have policy changes with the administration have changed the opportunity set for solar CCS or credits, or has it not been impactful, or how would you characterize it?
You know, I don't think that it's been significantly impactful. I mean, you know, certainly all else being equal, the rollback of some of those economic incentives, particularly around solar development, has necessitated some, you know, kind of re-analysis of NPV and kind of, you know, IRR expectations. Overall, solar is still very competitive with pretty much any other form of electricity generation. You know, we haven't seen, you know, kind of these option agreements get canceled at scale. We're still seeing a lot of momentum behind that business. You know, by most estimates, there's something like, you know, 30 to 40 gigawatts of new solar capacity additions are expected to come online annually for the foreseeable future.
Just to put that in context, it requires about seven acres of solar panels per megawatt of generation capacity. Again, that annual estimate of utility solar additions of 30-40 gigawatts implies a land need of about 210,000-280,000 acres per year. Again, a very significant land need for these for the build-out of these solar projects.
Right. Right. Maybe kind of saving the best for last. On capital allocation, I mean, you do have balance sheet capacity. Can you just talk a little bit more about, you know, optimal leverage, you know, maybe the opportunity with buybacks? Then on dividend, you know, wood products profitability historically is kind of volatile. Like, how do you think about dividend given potential volatility in wood products with pricing?
Yeah, I mean, starting with leverage, you know, we've been pretty clear around our leverage target of wanting to maintain net leverage at less than or equal to three times on net debt-to-EBITDA. You know, we stated that on mid-cycle EBITDA, so recognizing that, you know, we characterize wood products contribution as being more as a, in a trough point in the cycle currently. You know, we'll kind of measure that long-term leverage target more around our view of mid-cycle EBITDA. In terms of dividend funding, you know, we feel pretty comfortable with where the dividend sits today, certainly from a funding standpoint, and that's with the lumber business really at a trough point in the cycle.
We're gonna have some organic cash flow growth, you know, really around the synergies realization through the merger. Obviously, you know, long term, we want to grow the dividend. We wanna grow cash flow to support the dividend. Some of that is gonna have to kinda come from pricing growth in sawtimber and lumber, which we think will come over time. We are very comfortable with where the dividend level is today.
Great. Great. Well, you know, we're coming up on time. I'm wondering if there's any kind of final take-home messages that you'd leave folks with on Rayonier and the opportunity of the combined company.
Yeah, you know, again, I think we feel really good about the recent merger with PotlatchDeltic. We think that there are some pretty meaningful synergies opportunities there. You know, really optimistic about just the prospect of an improved cost to capital over time with the larger platform. Feel really good about where the balance sheet is at in terms of capital allocation flexibility. You know, like I said earlier, we have been buying back stock here of late and really trying to capitalize on that disconnect that we see between private market values and where the stock is trading. Still a lot of work to do around the merger integration. We think we're off to a very good start here.
Great. Great. Well, Mark, Wayne, thank you.
Thank you, Anthony.