Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Service Corporation International First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Followed by 0. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to the SCI Management.
Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. This is Debbie Young, Director of Investor Relations for FTI. Welcome to our company's review of business results for the Q1 of Before we jump into the prepared remarks from Tom and Eric, let me remind you that we'll be making some forward looking statements today. Any comments made by our management teams that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward looking statements.
These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those Contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and on our filings with the SEC that are available on our website. During this call, we will also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the appropriate GAAP measures is provided on our website under the Investors Webcast and Events section is also in our earnings press release and 8 ks that were issued yesterday. With that out of the way, I'll now pass it on to our Chairman and CEO, Tom Ryan.
Thanks, Debbie. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. We hope you and your families are staying safe and healthy these days. It's hard to believe it, but it's been a little over a year since the onset of the pandemic and we are thankful that our associates and our communities We're beginning to experience some relief from the overwhelming effects of COVID-nineteen. Before I begin, I want to once again express my heartfelt thanks and appreciation to my SCI family.
It is your courage and commitment That positioned us for the results we posted this quarter. You have continued to stay relentlessly focused on what we do best, Helping our client families gain closure and healing through the process of breathing, remembrance and celebration. I want to assure you that your health, safety and well-being continues to be a top priority for us. Now to the quarter. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with a high level overview of the quarter, followed by a more detailed analysis of our funeral and cemetery results and finally, comments on our guidance and outlook for this year.
For the Q1, we generated earnings adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 compared to $0.43 in the prior year For an extraordinary increase of more than 200%. This strong earnings per share growth was driven by 2 factors, Significant funeral volume increases, which we anticipated based upon December volume increases of 31% And a substantial increase in cemetery property sales, particularly preneed cemetery property sales, which exceeded our expectations and significantly enhanced our earnings per share results for the Q1 of 2021. At a high level, both the funeral and cemetery segments in the quarter had margin improvement of over 1,000 basis points, driven by double digit top line percentage growth coupled with a more efficient cost structure. We also benefited from a lower share count And lower interest expense, which was more than offset by a higher adjusted tax rate. Let's take a look at the funeral results for the quarter.
Total comparable funeral revenues grew $109,000,000 or almost 22% over the same period last year. These favorable results were driven by our core funeral businesses as well as SCI Direct. Core funeral revenues grew $95,000,000 due to a 22% increase in the number of core funeral services performed and a 0.5% improvement in the core funeral sales average. In the 1st 3 months of the year, We continue to see a meaningful increase in the number of services performed due to COVID-nineteen with January February Showing very strong year over year growth and then tapering off somewhat in March as comparisons to the prior year became more challenging and as the effects of the vaccine rollout began to impact this year. For over a year now, our frontline team has been serving record numbers of client families and continue to do so with compassion, Commitment, professionalism and agility.
We were very pleased with the core funeral sales average growth of 0.5% in the quarter. This was achieved despite a modest 20 basis point increase in the core cremation mix, which is well below our typical annual expectation of 100 basis points to 150 basis points. In March, The funeral average rose an impressive 8% when compared to the prior year and more than offset the more difficult Pre pandemic comps in January February. Additionally, when you look at the core average in absolute dollars in the month of March, It is pretty much in line with pre COVID levels. I believe this is a testament to the value our families continue to place On remembrance and celebration, which is very encouraging to us, as restrictions are easing in both our client families And their guest comfort levels about larger gatherings improved due in part to the vaccine rollout, we should expect that improvement to continue.
Preneed funeral sales production for the Q1 grew an impressive $35,300,000 were 16%, which exceeded our expectations. Both our core funeral homes and SCI Direct businesses posted strong increases after a challenging 2020. The growth predominantly came in the month of March We did have an easier comp in the back half of March, but we also saw significant growth in leads from digital and direct mail, Increased location traffic due to higher atneed services performed and from the gradual return of in person seminars. From a profit perspective, funeral gross profit increased $85,000,000 and the gross profit percentage increased more than 1,000 basis points to 31%, realizing a 78% Incremental margin on our revenue growth. We continue to benefit from growth in our high incremental margin core business coupled with the efficiencies that have favorably impacted our cost structure.
Now shifting to cemetery. Like I referenced earlier in the quarterly overview, we experienced significant growth in cemetery revenues In the back half of twenty twenty, in anticipated carrying momentum into the Q1 of 2021, But our cemetery performance this quarter even exceeded our lofty expectations. Comparable cemetery revenue increased almost $161,000,000 or 54% in the Q1. In terms of breakdown, Atneed cemetery revenue accounted for $40,000,000 or about 25% of the growth, driven by more interments performed Due in part to the effects of COVID-nineteen and recognized premium revenues accounted for about $120,000,000 For the remaining 75% of the revenue growth, due to higher than expected preneed cemetery sales production during the quarter. Greening cemetery sales production grew an astounding $130,000,000 or 67% in the Q1.
The majority of this growth were about $85,000,000 was driven by an increase in core velocity or the number of preneed contracts sold. The remaining growth of about $45,000,000 was about evenly split between increases in large sales activity, as well as a higher quality core average sale. Consumer reception and demand for our products and services remain very strong. We saw significant lead growth this quarter, which was the combination of higher traffic from our add need services An acceleration of leads from multiple lead channels, including digital and traditional lead sources, as well as a record impact in certain markets from the Ching Ming holiday that drove elevated preneed cemetery sales from our Asian communities. We also continue to see a more productive and efficient sales force with better utilization of our customer relationship management system and improved conversion rates from our lead campaign.
Cemetery gross profits in the quarter grew by approximately $111,000,000 And the gross profit percentage increased more than 1500 basis points to nearly 41%, realizing a 69% incremental margin. Now I'll speak to our revised outlook and provide a little color. Back in February, we'll call that we issued adjusted earnings per share guidance of $2.50 to $2.90 per share. We have qualified this guidance and provided a wider range than we have historically, As we felt it was difficult to predict the timing and the efficacy of the vaccine rollout, funeral volume comparisons for the rest of the year, resulting in down mid single digit percentages for the entire 2021 and a favorable remaining 9 months The funeral sales average, resulting in the return to 2019 pricing levels, showing low to mid single digit percentage growth over 2020 averages. However, Based upon our preneed cemetery sales production for the 1st 4 months of the year, we are increasing our guidance for the year From a decline in the mid single digits to finish the year in a range of flat to potentially low single digit percentage growth, Primarily from this preneed cemetery sales production guidance increase, we are adjusting Our annual earnings per share guidance to $2.70 to $3 thereby raising our midpoint by $0.15 As we noted in our guidance from last quarter, we still expect future periods of earnings per share and cash flow results To be negatively impacted temporarily by the pull forward of funeral case volumes in atneed cemetery sales into 2020 in early 2021.
Still, efficiencies we have gained by improving processes and leveraging technology have allowed us to produce a more competitive and profitable operating platform. This combined with the capital structure improvements
We have
made over the last 15 months are expected to allow us to produce earnings per share compounded annual growth returns In the low or even potentially mid teen percentage range for 20222023, Off of a pre COVID 2019 earnings per share base of $1.90 even while absorbing these temporary pull forward effects. From there, we anticipate that we will begin to see the impact of baby boomers entering their late 70s and realize the benefits of our investments in technology to stay relevant with the next generation of consumers. These investments will enhance our ability to drive market share to improve both the physical and digital customer experience and in a more effective and efficient manner. In closing, I just want to say what an honor it is to work with such a great team and that I am proud to call my SCI family. Your selfless dedication to our families and communities is so appreciated, especially in times like these.
My heartfelt thanks to each of you. With that operator, I'll now turn it over to Eric.
Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everybody. We are so proud of all 24,000 of our colleagues that have managed through the challenges of the past year and a half. I am particularly thankful for how our frontline field associates have been there compassionately helping families In their greatest time of need and stepping up to support our communities through these very challenging times. Looking forward, I remain hopeful as it appears we finally might be emerging from the worst of this pandemic and soon be able to return to a more Normal future. So with that, most important thing said this morning, I would now like to shift to the business at hand I begin to walk you through our cash flow results and capital deployment for the quarter and then briefly touch upon our revised full year cash flow guidance, financial position update and capital deployment future plans.
So we generated operating cash flow of nearly $300,000,000 during the quarter, representing an impressive increase of $118,000,000 or 65% over the prior year. Strong preneed cemetery sales, Increased number of fuel services performed as well as increased at the cemetery and termite volume led to the robust growth in operating earnings, which translated to strong operating cash flow results. Cash flow was also affected by Cash interest that increased $10,000,000 predominantly as a result of timing of payments related to the recent debt refinancing transactions, somewhat offset by lower rates on our floating rate debt. Cash tax has also increased $12,000,000 in correlation with the higher earnings. Finally, we experienced a net use Working capital in the quarter resulting from the tremendous growth in cemetery preneed property sales.
While this drove our earnings, These sales are mostly paid for on an installment basis, which means the cash will be collected over time, including positively impacting cash for the remainder of this year. We also experienced a timing difference Cash related to an additional payroll that was funded this quarter when compared to the Q1 of last year. So now let us discuss our capital deployment of approximately $270,000,000 during the quarter covering reinvestment into our businesses, followed by growth capital, opportunistically reducing debt balances and finally returning capital to our shareholders. So again, We invested $34,000,000 into our businesses through $24,000,000 of maintenance capital and almost $10,000,000 of cemetery development capital spend. Our cemetery development capital was almost $15,000,000 lower than the prior year quarter and it was lower than our expectations, primarily due to extended cold weather in certain areas of the country that delayed several of our cemetery development projects.
From a growth capital perspective, we invested about $9,000,000 on growth capital towards the new build And expansion of several funeral homes. These new builds should provide us with great low double digit percentage returns going forward and expand our footprint into desirable markets. We also deployed almost $6,000,000 towards real estate purchases. We only spent a small amount of acquisition capital during the quarter, which we believe is just timing as we continue to be confident and our targeted deployment range for acquisitions for the full year of $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 We also paid down our credit facility by a net amount of $80,000,000 during the quarter as cash flow generation during the quarter, as I've said, was very robust. Finally, we deployed over $140,000,000 of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Dividend payments in the Q1 totaled about $36,000,000 or $0.21 per share. So let's shift into a few comments on our outlook and our financial position. Earlier, Tom, as you heard, highlighted the earnings strength of our business With a strong start to this year, driving the need for us to adjust our guidance after the Q1. Our cash flow outlook has similarly changed. So we are adjusting our cash flow guidance up from $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 to a revised guidance range of $650,000,000 to 725,000,000 This represents an increase of about $40,000,000 at the midpoint of our guidance.
Higher cash earnings as well as some positive working capital expectations that I just mentioned are expected to be somewhat offset by higher cash taxes. And on that note, we're now expecting $180,000,000 of cash taxes in 2021 or an additional $20,000,000 Over the $160,000,000 we guided to in February, driven by the increase in earnings. We also continue to expect a Full year normalized effective tax rate between 24% 25%. So therefore, our expectations and guidance Do not contain any federal statutory tax rate changes at this time. Our expectations for maintenance and cemetery development capital Spending in 2021 remains unchanged at $235,000,000 to $255,000,000 Additionally, we continue planning for the deployment of $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 towards acquisitions and around $50,000,000 in new funeral home construction projects.
Supporting these capital deployment expectations is our strong balance sheet. We continue to be very well positioned With a significant amount of liquidity of roughly $765,000,000 at the end of the quarter, consistent of approximately $245,000,000 of cash on hand Plus just over $520,000,000 available on our long term bank credit facility. On the continued growth in EBITDA, Our leverage at the end of the quarter fell below 3 times to 2.61 times. This leverage level was somewhat less And our expectations as EBITDA came in stronger than expected during the Q1. This calculation now reflects a full 4 quarters of strong pandemic impacts to our EBITDA.
So as we look beyond the impacts of this pandemic, We expect to settle into our targeted leverage range of 3.5 times to 4 times. So in closing, we're off to a great start to 2021. Our teams across the company continue to deliver Great care to our client families and communities we serve in this challenging environment. We began 2021 on very firm footing, Reporting even stronger earnings and cash flow results than initially expected. I am pleased that we're able to increase our 2021 guidance and looking forward, I'm also impressed with how much we have learned and adapted during these trying times as an organization.
We have evolved to become a much stronger organization and while there are some expected headwinds in the near future, as we look forward to 2022 2023, I expect our improved foundation will continue to add even more value going forward than we initially expected. Finally, we're most honored to be able to help our client families and our communities During their most difficult days in these very unusual times and deliver peace of mind to those who wish to develop plans for their future. So with that operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. I'd now like to turn it back over to you for questions.
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer Our first question is from A. J. Rice of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hi, everyone. I appreciate the comments that Tom made about His updated thoughts on the longer term outlook 20222023. I'd be curious if there's any way that you could Flush out maybe some of the underpinnings in your assumptions that give you the confidence that those numbers are achievable even as we look that far out?
Sure, A. J. Thanks a lot for that question. It is awfully difficult, I think right now to try to Decipher what a normalized earnings per share might be in 2023, considering all the dramatic swings In earnings of late and could be in the future from the impact of COVID. So let me try to explain why I'm so excited About the future outlook for our company.
For years, you've heard us talk about our long term earnings per share growth framework of 8% to 12%. I think if you go back and use 2019 as a base in order to make some assumptions around growth, This has the effect of removing the noise around COVID. And for me, it provides a lot of clarity about Where we could be as a company in a few years, which I believe could potentially be above our 8% to 12% range. On the funeral side, A. J, based upon our best projections, the impact of the pull forward We'll likely have us performing about, say, the same number of funeral services in 2023 as we did in 2019.
Now those are assumptions, but it's our best guess at this time. So assuming reasonable growth from SEI Direct In minimal inflationary funeral prices coupled with managing our expenses well, we would expect the contribution from the funeral segment To be relatively flat as the funeral volumes are flat to 2019. But remember, true earnings growth from funeral We'll require increased funeral services, so think baby boomers. However, keep in mind that a very significant learning from the COVID experience When we get volume in the related revenue, 70% to 80% will drop to the bottom line. This in and of itself is exciting, but for this hypothetical, I'm assuming that the baby boomers haven't arrived yet in 2023 And they mine.
So then shifting to cemetery, like we said for a long time, our opportunity to drive meaningful near term earnings Share is tied to our success in generating preneed cemetery sales. So if you start at a 2019 base And assume we can grow preneed cemetery at 5.5% to 6.5% compounded over a 4 year period like we have in the past, The cemetery segment could likely add 75% to say 85% per share to our 2019 earnings per share base of $1.90 Then if you take the impact of our Strategic capital deployment over this 4 year period between the opportunistic share repurchases and acquisitions, we had another, call it, $0.35 to our 2019 base. This would result in a 2023 earnings per share Approaching, call it $3 to $3.25 and again, this would absorb the pull forward effect And reflects no impact from potential market share gains or maybe boomer volume expansion. So that's my simpleton way to think about it. And hopefully, that's helpful in clarifying why I'm so excited about the future of this great company.
Yes. No, that's very helpful. Thanks a lot. Maybe one other follow-up. I know Eric ran through the capital deployment priorities and what Done in the current quarter.
I guess, and part of your long term opportunities are these two areas. So share repurchase, I think target for the year was $150,000,000 You already did $106,000,000 in the Q1 $1,000,000 And then I think on the acquisitions, there wasn't There's only a little bit of a tuck in and you've still got a goal of $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 for the year. Can you just update us as the targets change? Are you still confident on those? Is there upside to the share repurchase aspect?
And maybe are you confident on the $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 on the acquisition front?
Yes. Let's take acquisitions first. I mean, we are confident with that, A. J, and I kind of alluded to that in my remarks because There's not much there during the quarter as it relates to deployment on the cash flow statement as you correctly just mentioned, but We really believe that it's more of a timing issue. We're excited about the pipeline.
There's definitely deals that are out there that we and our teams are looking at and we're somewhat excited about it, frankly. And so yes, we believe $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 is good For right now, which means that that activity should pick up from a capital deployment perspective as we go through the remainder of 2021. You're also correct on the share repurchases. We think that was a great opportunity in producing a nice, Frankly, low double digit type return for us at the levels that we saw earlier in 2021. We did Ben, just over $100,000,000 What does the future look like?
I think you should continue seeing us Continue to put capital in that section, in that area, with absent any type of other relative return That is higher return. I mean, frankly, we're going to deploy capital to the highest relative return opportunity. And if M and A, for example, It was much bigger or there's even larger new build deployment opportunities, for example, hypothetically, that Type of return is probably going to exceed your share repurchase program. So from that perspective, you're following me, we're going to deploy capital. We're going to have Good double digit type, even low to mid teen type returns with the menu that we have.
But in terms of the exact mix, It's very hard for me to tell you specifically, but I agree with you definitely out of the gate. We've Strongly deployed towards the share repurchase program in the Q1.
All right. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question is from Joanna Gojek of BoA. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. And thanks Tom for sharing your views around the A forward looking kind of outlook or at least the base scenario there for earnings. But to your point, You don't assume market share gains, but clearly the company did gain market share based on these growth rates that we So can you kind of flash it out to us a little bit?
I know it's very precise, but kind of any color or any numbers even in terms of How you think about the market share you gained last year into this year in both segments?
Joanna, I'll try to do that. As you think about market share and really trying to tie back to CDC accurate data, it's really difficult to do it in real time. So we have to do it based upon Our ability to get information in certain markets and I have a couple of observations to make you feel better about that. And again, my example was just saying, I think we can achieve those goals even without market share. And I'm with you, I think we've gained a little bit, Particularly in the markets where we had scale.
So where you saw big cities that were impacted dramatically by COVID, we experienced For sure, surges in market share and touching customers and helping them at very, very challenging times, when you think about the New Yorks and the L. A. And the place Like that. The other thing that's interesting, we track as you know, funeral volume by atneed and then preneed turning atneed. So as you think about those 2 buckets, the thing we've been experiencing over the last couple of quarters and more acutely in the Q1 this year, I think our add need walk in, forgive me, I'm speaking from memory, was up 24% and our preneed backlog change was 16%.
So, there was a noticeable difference of more customers coming in that above and beyond what we're seeing our backlog. That normally tells me that you're out there performing for customers that probably would not have come to you When you think about the radius that we draw from. So, I feel really good. I think we definitely believe in certain markets We've gained share. I can't say that across the nation.
We surely have created a lot more visibility. And I think based upon Our Google Star reviews and the like, Yale, I think you we have an opinion that we have a very favorable Impression in the communities where we operate.
Okay. I appreciate the color. And I guess A little bit different topic on pricing. I think I missed that part. There was some technical difficulties.
I think you were talking about the outlook for the year for the Average that you expect to return to 2019 pricing levels, I think. So can you talk about what you experienced this quarter? Clearly, March was strong because of the comps, and you said that Sounds like pricing, the absolute number was back to the pre pandemic level. So I guess is that correct? And can you talk about Kind of how pricing is trending in markets that are more open versus still where maybe there's more restrictions or fewer vaccinations and whatnot?
And specifically, I guess the impact on Canada, maybe if you can frame it ex Canada, how pricing played out this quarter?
Sure. So first of all, you're correct. The average we saw in March was Effectively the same as January of 2020, so pre COVID U. S, Canada. So we're very pleased that we've been able to get back to that number.
So as you think about the comps in the back half of the year, we would expect the average year over year from here on out to grow in the Low to almost approaching mid single digit percentages on a comparable basis, But look a lot like 2019. And I think as we go forward, we feel very good about our ability to pass through Inflationary pricing and expand menu products and services as it relates to that. On specific markets, You're right. There is a big difference in temporarily timing of whether our market is open or not, because I think, again, people are we surely are complying with local laws Regulation suggestions. So, if you can't have a big gathering, that's going to have an impact.
We've seen that, I'd say, More profoundly in the Canadian markets. For a while, we saw it in California, but clearly California is opening up, New York is opening up. So, we have a lot of good momentum with these markets opening up. I do think Canada is experiencing a little more difficulty and so We'll get there, but we're confident that we are. So I feel really good about the average as we think about 2022 and 2023.
If we learn something from this Crisis is that people value what we provide. And you can see the cremation average Only moved 20 basis points, which is again shocking when you think about your immediate reaction to what will people choose to do Through this COVID crisis, I think again, they want to celebrate, they want to remember, they want to get through the grading process. So I think good news on the average.
Right. No. And actually, that was my other follow-up on the cremation, right? The shift was pretty much nonexistent this quarter, but I know it's hard to say whether this is Here to stay, but I guess do you have any views there in terms of what you expect for the year in terms of the commission percentages? And I guess What is the cremation percentage in your revenue backlog that you create?
Has that changed?
The cremation percentage in the revenue backlog is pretty consistent. What we have seen is a little bit different Is the burial consumer has basically come back almost completely as it relates to their percentage in choosing service. And the percentage in choosing service and cremation, while cremation hasn't moved that much, we still see a little bit of a holdback as it relates The percentage of people choosing service. So we're seeing that in the preneed backlog too. I think it kind of coincides with the atneed That, as I'm sitting there thinking about it at this moment, it's hard to envision a big service because COVID is happening.
So we definitely saw that. I would expect as markets open up That begins to move back to traditional changes. And again, I think on the atneed funeral side, I'm sorry, cremation mix side, Clearly, 20 basis points is probably smaller than what we anticipate. So, we would expect that to gradually move back towards that 100 150 at some point. I do think, again, you're using comparable numbers.
Probably the biggest cremation mix Change happened in late March early April when a lot of markets around the U. S. Were shut down. So I think April should see a pretty favorable, Maybe even a positive change in that cremation mix, but then I think you begin to normalize a little more as you get to the back half of the year.
Great. Thank you for the color.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from John Ransom of Raymond James.
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me?
Yes. Great. I can't even hear the lawnmowers.
Exactly. Well, thanks for all the good news. The question I have is, as we move through this year and I know it's short term, how do we think about the correlation of Tough funeral comps to preneed cemetery sales. It seems like there was a relationship that was a good guy. Is there a bad guy you're expecting?
And then secondly, going back to Joanna's question, it looks like the Correlation of your numbers with CDC was pretty good until this quarter. And I know it's hard for you to say in real time, but do you think that CDC numbers showing High single digit declines in deaths in the Q1 was just to offer. Did you really think you took that much share? Thanks.
From your second question, John, this is Eric. I'll answer it for you. I'm not sure Those numbers have been updated completely, would be my first comment. And my second comment would be, You have to also take into account that we had some sort of some ability of a lag. We were so busy.
When you take the West Coast, for example, and you take Southern California, take Arizona, take Nevada as well, We ultimately had to employ ability for storage for decedents and such And our families, our client families were to a large degree very patient because there was a backlog of us able to perform those funerals, Especially in places like California, where you couldn't even have a funeral service indoors. So that's where we talked about before about Deploying tens and such to do that. But remember, you've not recognized the revenue until you perform the services and deliver the product. So from that perspective, you had deaths that occurred in CDC in back half of November December, which was very robust, Which actually was revenue recognized in January 1st part of February, for example. So I think you have to take into account both those factors, I do agree with you.
When we went and looked at the underlying data, it was hard for us to frankly recognize that underlying data, John, to be frank about it.
Thanks. And the color is there any other question?
Yes, your first question was around Cemetery, preneed cemetery growth. First, let me say that I think Adneed cemetery correlates very closely With funeral volumes, because again, they're relying upon the same customer. What we would see in the preneed side is a bit of a lag, what we'd expect. And the reason for that is, while some preneed maybe companion sales, Some of it may take a month or 2 months. It's a lead that we're going to follow-up on.
And so we would expect even as case volume comes down that you still have A number of good leads that you can work as you think about Preenage Cemetery. When you really try to peel this back, and I think this a helpful way to look. And again, I apologize, I keep going back to I'm using 2019 as a base just to think about what would I expect in normal circumstances. So if you take this quarter, we grew preening cemetery sales $130,000,000 or 67%. If you go back to 2019 in production levels and say, let's grow at 7% a year for 2 years, That would tell you that of your $130,000,000 of growth, about $55,000,000 of that Is what you would have expected and that $75,000,000 would be COVID or COVID related.
And what I mean by COVID or COVID related is, I think some of it may be directly related to a death in COVID and therefore we can generate sales. That probably is going to have a again a 2 month lag of volume. But then there's a component of COVID that I'll call is the awareness of the consumer. And the awareness of the consumer is really strong and that's the piece I don't think we can tell, right? I don't know if Because COVID is so fresh in our minds, I would expect that to have a longer tail that people are going to be Aware of taking care of their affairs, managing this part of it.
So that's the peak that I think is a little more difficult. But For me, easily $55,000,000 of this $130,000,000 in my opinion, we'd have gotten with or without COVID. And it's the other piece that We got to kind of we're still figuring out, but I think we feel confident about our ability to execute.
Great. Thanks so much.
Thanks, John. Thanks, John.
Thank you very much. So we have no further questions. So can I hand back to management for closing comments?
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for being on the call with us today. Stay safe. We look forward to talking to you again in about 3 months. Take care.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.