All right, good afternoon. Thanks for bearing with us as we were getting sorted out as we started. My name is Stan Chia. I'm gonna hop on stage real quick. Happy to talk you guys through the Vivid Seats story today. I think we are at a great point in the journey of the company, and I'm very excited to let you guys know who we are, where we've come from, and certainly what we're doing. So Vivid Seats, data-driven online ticketing marketplace, live events. We cover all the categories: sports, concerts, and theater. You know, I think we're very clear in our mission to help everyone experience it live, and you'll see that our investments across the spectrum have yielded what we believe to be a differentiated and very valuable ecosystem for all of the constituents from a fan, seller, and partner perspective.
When you look at the business, we are certainly scaled, growing, and highly profitable. If you look at the stats there, you know, I think we just announced, you know, our seventh or eighth quarter of record earnings as we continue to deliver across the front. We're guiding now this year to $3.8 billion in marketplace GOV, $695 million in revenue, and $139 million in Adjusted EBITDA, right? And if you look at that versus where we started the year, you know, you'll see almost a 20% raise in our guidance from the year in terms of where we are now from where we started. So continued performance, and we continue to be really excited about next year's prospects, too.
On that base, you can see, you know, we're projecting 22% revenue growth next year, up to $885 million in revenue. And on that, 25% increase in EBITDA, EBITDA growth as we continue to see leverage benefit from the investments we're making into next year as we project almost $175 million in adjusted EBITDA next year. You look at who we are and then maybe the three kind of pillars to think about as we walk you through the business. Two-sided marketplace. I think we have continued, differentiated, valuable, and unique technology. We've got great TAM, and if you look at the investments and the assets that we've acquired, as well as the technology that we've built, the TAM that we're in continues to grow.
We also do more to make sure that our technology and our products continue to be able to serve an ever-increasing TAM, that continues to take advantage of a lot of the secular growth that we see in the categories that we participate in. And then finally, perhaps importantly or maybe the most important, as we continue to fuel... You know, you heard me talk about, earlier, next year's 22% growth and 25% EBITDA growth. All of our investments are meant to yield profitable growth, and a lot of that is fueled by our customer acquisition strategy and a lot of the engagement capabilities that we've built into our technology.
When you look at us as a marketplace, I think it's helpful to walk through the ecosystem of what we have so that you have a good understanding of the moats that we have built around the products we have and the constituents that we serve. So first and foremost, on the left, you see as you have sellers in our marketplace ecosystem, we have our Skybox platform, which is the number one ERP for professional sellers. It is where they come in to run their businesses, power their businesses, and we have the number one product, which I'll get into a little bit later in the presentation. When you look then across our engagement ecosystem, you will see an ecosystem that is a combination of economic benefits, technological benefits, engagement benefits, as well as marketing technology.
Top to bottom, the only rewards program in the industry that continues to reward folks economically and experientially for continuing to participate and purchase from us. We have Vivid Picks and Game Center, our free-to-play products and real money daily fantasy products that continue to engage our users between transactions. And then when we look at our marketing capabilities, fueled by proprietary data, we also have very unique martech that allows us to be very efficient in how we go after customers on the marketing spectrum. When you look at the marketplace products, you know, certainly across all the app ecosystems, we have Vivid Seats. We also have our Vivid Picks app. We've recently acquired Vegas.com. And so you can certainly see across that multiple marketplaces within our ecosystem that serve constituents again.
And then on the bottom, uniquely, we also have our distribution infrastructure, where we are able to leverage all of the benefits from multiple partners to build out ticketing within separate ecosystems. The largest of which, you know, we recently announced Capital One being a large partner, where Capital One Entertainment is built and powered by Vivid Seats. When you look at Skybox, we talk about having the number one seller platform and ERP for professional sellers, and you look at that adoption, over 50% of professional sellers are using our technology, and our closest competition at estimate is probably at 8% and shrinking. Our 50% continues to grow.
When you think about the representation of the entire ecosystem, we believe professional sellers represent about 80% of the industry, thus, with over 50% of them on our platform, more than 40% of the entire industry flows through our infrastructure. And as you can imagine, that provides unique data insights that fuel multiple other components of our flywheel. When you look at our buyer experience across the spectrum, you can see our investments taking hold. Personalized discovery across all of that. As we look at how we learn more, when you think about how our products work together, both as you're looking at live events within Vivid Seats, but perhaps interestingly and uniquely, as you continue to play our games, whether that's in Game Center, whether that is in Vivid Picks, we start to learn more about you. Are you playing games with Dodgers players?
Are you participating in trivia with U2? We start to learn who you like and therefore, uniquely, as we serve recommendations, we have engagement points and vehicles that are very tailored and personalized that nobody else in the industry has. When you look at the choices that we present, it's tickets for every single fan across every single category. You know, I think the spectrum of inventory and selection is vast and wide, and we continue to have leading offering there. When you look at value to consumers, we have the only loyalty program in the business. Our economic component is very simple when you think about a buy ten, get one free, or equivalently almost a 10-10% discount, and it's at the ticket level.
So when you think about those who continue to go with friends, family as a social endeavor, it is a quite quick hurdle to surpass to start earning free tickets. Reliable offerings. You look at us, we've got a 100% buyer guarantee. Just recently, we were announced again, you know, by Newsweek as best customer service in ticketing. So when you look for trusted, safe, reliable, authoritative platforms, we continue to provide everything from engagement, rewards value, as well as best-in-class customer service. And then as you look at, you know, I think our modern apps and web platforms, you'll just see a very, very simple and easy purchasing process through the entirety of the life cycle. Our flywheel, straightforward.
You know, I think as you look at it, typical marketplace flywheel, more demand, more partners, more supply and data, better technology, more buyers come on board, more sellers come on board, and that continues to serve us well. Our engagement engine, as I talked about on loyalty, buy 10, get one free. Really simple. Redeem your rewards credit. We've continued to see now every quarter since we've launched this program, our repeat rates at our buyer level are higher every quarter. They are the highest they have ever been across every single category. So we continue to see fans and buyers leaning in with their wallets to choose Vivid Seats and choose our Rewards program as a vehicle for them.
When you look at Vivid Picks, gamified engagement, as we talked about, and now launched with Game Center as well, perhaps uniquely here, as live events are not a daily activity, it is important to capture that user and that fan between events. Vivid Picks presents that opportunity. Game Center presents that opportunity. As we've talked about, you know, I think the frequency metrics out there, our Vivid Picks users are now engaged for, playing on average over 15 entries a month. So you think about the countercyclicality and the ability to engage between, purchasing live events, large and continuing to grow. Game Center, which we launched as our first free-to-play product, using the same engine within the core Vivid Seats app. First 60 days, we had over 70,000 playing the product with almost no marketing.
We announced on our last earnings, we've accelerated that growth now, clearly over 100,000 people playing Game Center, right? All free to play, all engagement vehicles where we keep fans within our ecosystem, and every one of those ecosystem powers unique discovery and personalization. When you look across the spectrum here of how we attract and retain, then, you know, I think we've got everything here that lets that journey be holistic and complete across every element of the consumer's life cycle.
Then perhaps as you look at the global TAM now that we can address, you know, I think we started when you look at the business, you know, two years ago, as we came out of COVID, you know, we were a North American secondary business, and our estimates were that business was a $10-$11 billion category in North America in the secondary space. Since then, now we've continued to expand our TAM. When you look within North America, our acquisition of Vegas, which is 100% accretive, as we think about that, Vegas itself has $6 billion in incremental TAM just from shows organic to Vegas. So we look at North America now, it's secondary plus Vegas, $17 billion in TAM available to us.
We announced the quarter prior to that, our acquisition of Wavedash, the leading secondary platform in Japan as well, and we look at the international landscape as well as being well suited for the products and platforms that we have. And so we look at everything we have, and we say there's at least $57 billion of global TAM, that we have an amazing platform that we can go after. Again, as we've mentioned, you'll see a lot of the familiar names and icons here, but just a very broad and evergreen portfolio of events across every single category, right? Over 250,000 unique events that we've sold to, over 140 million cumulative tickets, and growing as we continue on our journey.
Perhaps a moment on Vegas.com, as we just announced that deal closed, I think, three days before our quarterly earnings, so we're very excited about this. Vegas, you know, we look at that as it is the entertainment capital of the world. A lot of tailwinds. F1 was just there, right? First of a 10-year stint. Super Bowl's heading that way in February, the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Oakland Athletics moving. Tons of tailwind in the category. We acquired the market leader in Vegas. You know, I think we're very pleased with the purchase price, which we, which we look at as accretive from a multiple perspective, and perhaps more important strategically, comes with a lot of advantages in terms of strategic relationships. Vegas.com is 0% secondary. Vivid Seats is 100% secondary. So unique inventory, unique partnerships that are coming through.
Then perhaps more importantly, we think about it all just at the bare minimum as an amazing, profitable customer acquisition engine for us. As you look at people who go to Vegas are our core and targeted customer, right? They are largely not Las Vegas residents who are traveling to Vegas to go to live events. And so when you think about that consumer base going to Vegas, us owning that brand, we can then take them, introduce them to Vivid Seats Rewards, and as they go home, they are introduced into our ecosystem with rewards that allows our flywheel to spin. So if anything, other than the standalone base, it's just being a great asset, lots of synergy with us, lots of strategic benefit, and ultimately a really nice, growing, scaled marketplace leader and a profitable customer acquisition engine for Vivid Seats.
When you look at then our history of M&A now, as we've continued to grow, I think we are quite disciplined in how we approach it. And as we look at the horizon on the inorganic front, you can look through criteria that we have continued to tick through as we look at opportunities. Is it strategically accretive? Vegas and WaveDash, both unlocking TAM, as well as multiple benefits and leverage the tech ecosystem that we have. TAM accretive, both unlocking new segments, that we can now go after. Financially accretive, both of those assets, profitable, cash generating, as well, both of those market leaders, and then a lot of upside on the synergy when you think about what the combination with Vivid Seats can do there. So we remain excited, we remain disciplined and aggressive on the M&A front, as well.
Shifting to the financials of Vivid Seats, when you look at the business, you know, certainly growth at scale, which I think we are proud of and we think is a big differentiator for us, right? Over 30% growth in 2022, followed by greater than 20% growth then in 2023 on a $3 billion base. You know, I think we are pretty excited about being able to drive that. 19% 2024 revenue growth, lots of growth, even excluding the Vegas.com acquisition, right? So we think a lot of our organic investments are working. We'll supercharge that with some of that inorganic opportunity. And perhaps as you drop down to the bottom line, certainly a profitable business as we continue to invest in profitable growth for the company. 19% 2022...
EBITDA margins, moving that up to 20% in 2023, and then we think 21% in 2024. And perhaps just as important, we generate significant cash to continue to allow us to be offensive, on the streak as well, right? $114 million in cash in 2023, generated from operations, which translates to about 60%-70% in our free cash flow conversion from EBITDA. So great financial profile of the business, continuing to drive cash flow generation, profitable growth, and profitable growth at scale. When you look at the trend here, you know, since first quarter of 2022, I think you continue to see marketplace GOV continuing to tick up, revenue is continuing to tick up in line with that.
You know, I think worth mentioning, the category, while fully discretionary, we feel really strong about our resiliency and the strength of the consumer and the generations and the trends here, where people are prioritizing. Certainly, this category certainly continues to be reflected in our growth and our financials. When you look at our engagement engine, perhaps a big driver here when we talk about repeat rates as well. When you go back to, you know, 2018 and 2019, just as we were kicking off our loyalty programs prior to the enhancements that you've seen and the technology investments and the economic and experiential investments, we were at 47% repeat orders then.
When you look at full year 2022, 56%, so 800-900 basis point movement into repeat orders, which again, reflect the strength of the program, but also allows us, as you can imagine, profitability and growth as repeat orders from repeat customers are generally significantly more profitable than new customers. When you look at that profitability profile, as we've talked about, you know, certainly on the Adjusted EBITDA front, you continue to see continued growth on the EBITDA category front, combined with investments to continue to strengthen the business.
You look at this slide here that talks about, again, as we continue to increase volume, our engagement is deepening, and therefore, that allows us, through the cash flow, through the profitability, to expand the platform, both from a TAM perspective, but also unique capability that allows us to capture share as we continue to grow. And finally, you know, I think the capital structure, as you look at this, we've touched on a lot of this already. Certainly, great cash flow generation profile. You look at a very low debt balance, and we continue to have, you know, an undrawn revolver as well. So as we continue to see strategic opportunities out there, we will continue to be aggressive and disciplined in our approach. So that quick summary of the business. Happy to take if there are any questions, and then forward.
Thank you. Thanks for that presentation. I was just wondering if you could comment on kind of end market trends. You know, there's been a lot of reports about ticket price inflation in the secondary markets this year. I'm sure you guys have a lot of great data on that. Like, what's like for, like, ticket price done this year relative... How is that relative to history? And, like, how sustainable do you think that is, going forward?
Yeah. So maybe start with the history first, then I'll bring you here. You know, so I think as a secondary marketplace, we think about our average order size as a really, really nice barometer for how much demand is outpacing supply, right? We're not the primary ticketing. Again, ours is purely a marketplace dynamic. Sellers own their inventory. They're gonna set a price based on what they think they can move through. And if you go back to pre-COVID, you know, I think what we saw was very steadily, AOS, or average order size, was ticking up about 3% every single year, right? So every single year, you saw 3% almost in line with GDP. Certainly, I think what you saw, you know, call it in the, you know, second, third quarter of 2021, as you started to emerge, that was pent-up demand playing out.
We saw 20%-30% AOS jumps versus 2019. But certainly, as we went through 2022 now and where we are in 2023, you look at that long-term CAGR, we've almost regressed completely to back to that line on what we expect price to be. So I think if you go back to history, I think we are back on that trend line of we're past pent-up demand. We're still seeing great secular trends in terms of people prioritizing their spend. The supply side, artists in particular, continuing to tour, right? Touring being a big income driver for them. And, you know, I think this quarter, I think we saw on a year-over-year basis, quarter-over-year, year-over-year on the quarter, I think we saw single-digit AOS increase versus last year.
I think regressing back to the trend line, which I think is exactly where it was pre-COVID as well.
Or there was a big decline and put it on the 3% CAGR versus-
It's always... No, since 2021, it's always been over, way over 3%. Like, I'd say, in that 2021, I'm sorry, on a, on a year-over-year, on a quarterly basis. On the CAGR basis, it's now regressed, right? And if you look at the most recent quarter, for example, you know, I think our Q3 AOS was 9% over 2022. So when you go back and then extrapolate that line back out to that and consider the COVID years, we are almost right back in line with where it was pre-COVID.
I think, on one of the slides there, you were showing a repeat order rate. There was a pretty significant jump year-over-year. So I think you talked about two vectors that was driving that. I think one was the loyalty program, and the other part was the gamification in the app. So I'm just wondering, like, what's driving most of that, you know, among the two vectors, do we still have some room to go from the gamification piece of it? Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, thanks for the question. Look, I think we've still got room to go on both, right? I think if you... As you look at the investment into loyalty, you know, certainly the economic benefits are there, right? Buy 10, get one. As you get closer to the hurdle, you're gonna wanna buy again to redeem, and so I think that's been working, and we feel great about that, and that's worked across all categories. You know, as we look at the gamification components, both on Game Center and Vivid Picks, those we continue to invest in, and we continue to see lots of traction there. I think beyond that, when you look at some of our brand investments, we think about brand now synonymously with rewards. And so you look at some of the stuff we've built out there to really drive the rewards behavior.
For example, if you look at some of our recent partners, whether that's with the Colorado Rockies, right? I love some of the stuff where as a Vivid Seats Rewards member, you can now have the opportunity to throw out the first pitch at a baseball game, right? You don't get to do that. No, it's usually celebrities. Nope. Vivid Seats Rewards members can also have the opportunity to throw that out. Our partnership with the LA Kings, which we just announced, you get guaranteed jumbotron time. So if you buy from Vivid Seats as a Rewards member, you get to sit in the seat where you will be guaranteed on the jumbotron, right?
I think you look at the things that we've built into the program and continue to invest in that are both economic, experiential, engagement on the product, and we continue to see fantastic adoption there. Perhaps more importantly, on the gamification side, every one of those engagements allows us insight into the personalized desires of the fan, which then allow us to surface, again, hyper-personalized recommendations, which obviously have a much higher propensity to convert than non-relevant recommendations.
... And, I think you've owned the Japanese asset for about a quarter or so now. I think we always tend to think, and there's a copy-paste business into international, but, what have you learned so far, as you spent more time with the asset, and how are the markets there different?
Yeah, it's great. We're, we're probably just under that. You know, I think we, we are under a quarter of ownership. And our, our criteria as we've looked at the international market, has always been, look, which we want to expand. You know, every market's a little bit different, and so we look for hyper-penetrated from an e-commerce perspective, connected markets, live events thriving, good secondary. You know, I think what we saw in Japan was certainly that, and a leading asset and the ability to do that. I think what we've continued to see there is, there's great opportunity for us to leverage some of our technology ability into that, whether that's introducing components of our gamification, whether that's components of our targeting to drive that.
I think we're still early days, but we have, I think, how we look at it, a wonderful opportunity in a scaled, profitable, cash-generating, share-leading asset to allow us to test, you know, I think, customization of our assets on an international landscape to, to find success in that particular market. And again, as that continues to work, we're excited to see, you know, where there are other potential opportunities in the broader international landscape.
Can you just discuss the drivers of kind of your take rate or revenue as a percentage of your GOV? It looks like quick math, it might be coming down a little bit this year, but next year, I think the guide for revenue is faster than the GOV. So what are the puts and takes there?
Yeah, I think take rate, you know, maybe two things to think about as you're comparing it. So our take rate has actually been relatively stable, if you will, across the board. If you compare back again, I'll go back to before we had a rewards program. The biggest decline in what you'll see as a take rate is actually coming from rewards because that's a contra revenue for us, so it comes out of take rate. So I wouldn't think about the underlying take rate stability of the business as anything other than stable. About 100, 100-plus basis points of take rate is coming from loyalty, so not reflective of what I say the take rates of the industry are. And what I think you saw this quarter, you know, we had some really large events, right?
I think, and when you think about Take Rate as it scales up, obviously, we play a little bit with how to manage some of that. And so where you have really, really high dollar events, you know, we will scale down potentially Take Rate, just, just moderately to make sure that the nominal dollar fee is, I think, palatable to the end consumer. And so a little bit of a trade for more profit dollars for slightly lower Take Rate. But again, as we normalize, I think that's what you're seeing in our guidance, is just a renormalization back to where I think the industry has always been.
I think, one more, Stan, if I may. So, sports is always there, year in and year out, and you can kind of forecast that with pretty good regularity. But I think you had a really packed concert calendar this year, right? And next year, who knows? So, like, what's your sort of prognosis for what might happen next year in terms of the other part of the business that's probably less visible?
Yeah, it's a great point. You know, concert is always hard because, again, we don't have perfect visibility to what's coming next year. I think we look always perhaps at the first parameter. We look at Live Nation because they know exactly what they're bringing to market in their promotional segment. I think they've continued to embody a lot of bullishness in the slate in terms of what's coming next year. You know, if you look at what's been announced, I think very recently, we've already seen, you know, the Rolling Stones announce a great tour there.
You know, if you talk about Vegas, again, as great tailwinds and things that I think we're seeing, obviously, the Sphere is a new venue and U2 being there, and they're already talking about, you know, I think what the next few acts could be, and certainly, I think that will be really exciting on that front. So while we don't know with precision what is coming next year, I think what we've certainly seen already in the on-sale calendar for next year's summer tours has us pretty bullish on what's going to be there on the concert slate.
Gotcha. With that, Stan, thanks once again for joining us, and we look forward to monitoring your progress in the coming year.
Great. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.