Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)
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Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference

Dec 6, 2023

Moderator

Music off? Okay. Thank you. Morning, everyone. Welcome to the 2nd day of our Consumer and Retail Conference. I'm Brian Harbour, cover restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley, and very excited to have the Shake Shack team. To start us off today, Randy Garutti is CEO, Katie Fogertey is CFO. Thank you, guys, for being here.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Thanks, Brian.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thank you. Good to be here.

Moderator

Maybe just a bigger picture question to start. You've had a very busy year, of course, right? A lot of different initiatives going on. How would you kind of rate your progress overall on those? What do you think has really stood out as most impactful this year?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thank you. Yeah, I look, it's been a really good year. We set out last year, end of last year, with a really clear strategic plan. It was focused on retaining our team, our guest experience, having a great class of new Shacks and development team going forward, improving our margins, and being disciplined with capital. That was the plan. That's what I really feel, looking back at the end of the year now, that we've executed. Let's start at the top. It was this time last year, or not long before that, that it was really hard to staff a restaurant. We're all here in our suits right now, and we're in Midtown, and it feels busy, and, like, we kind of feel normal.

But, like, it wasn't that long ago that that was really hard, and we're having some of the biggest retention turnover challenges we've ever had in the history of the company. And today, we're proud to say, and we've reported this a couple quarters in a row, that our turnover and retention of our team has been some of the best it's been in many years. That right there is a foundation for everything. We can't do all the other things without holding on to our team. Every time you flip out team members, and they're not staying, and they're constant new training, it's hard and expensive, and we feel like we've done that really well. So really proud of that. When you look at our class, we have a strong class of 2023. Varied, lots of formats. We can talk more about that.

You look at our guest experience, a couple big things this year. We rolled out kiosks at nearly all Shacks. It's one of the biggest things, both for margin, for guest experience, for higher average check, all the things. Kiosk, one of our best channels, and we love it when you come into the restaurant and use our digital tools. We also flipped our service model a little bit. This is something we haven't talked a lot about, but when we think about guest experience, anyone who's been to Shake Shack knows it can be a little stressful sometimes, and you get busy, and you're, "is my reorder ready?" And it's not just a Shake Shack thing, this is everywhere. Especially in this digital universe, where do I go? How do I do it?

As we've added kiosk and technology, we know we need to add back different hospitality. And now, most cases at most Shacks, when you order, we will actually run your food to your table, and another added level of service and hospitality and guest connection. Margins, I'll let Katie talk about the details, but we've expanded our margins in a big way, 400 points in the last quarter, year-over-year. We think there's still room to go there, and we're really excited about the opportunity there in every way that the team has set up. Improving our margins, putting work in place, we see line of sight to that continued improvement. And then our capital discipline.

Being disciplined with our G&A, being disciplined where we're making capital investments as we head into next year, we could talk about that quite a bit. Making sure that we've right-sized that. We have a super strong balance sheet that we took the opportunity during COVID at, you know, a very, very low cost of capital to fortress our balance sheet. We feel really good about where that is, and we're gonna continue to be disciplined in that. So we have years of growth to come without needing to worry about needing to access new capital. So, all in all, sitting here at the end of the year, we feel amazing about what the team has taken care of.

We feel good about the plan looking forward, and we're excited about continuing on the path of each of those things in a new and exciting way to continue to improve margins, drive sales, and strengthen the company. Not to mention, we had strong Same Shack Sales all year. We've had a strong overall sales environment, and it's pretty good.

Moderator

Yeah, sounds good, and we'll talk about each of those things. 1 question before we do that. Yeah, I think you do still have a COO position open.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We do, and we have, Jonathan Vandegrift, who's been with us for 21 years, is our leading VP of Operations.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

He is leading operations today. We feel great about that as we continue to search for COO, and we'll look forward to bringing in the right person at the right time. But today we have an incredible group of tenured operators who leads our restaurants, and Katie and her team, working more closely than ever with our operators on all these initiatives, and they're executing. And in the meantime, I'm quite connected to the restaurants, as I always am. I'm an operator at heart since I was 13 years old. So, that plus Katie's involvement and our other tenured leaders, we feel good about where ops is, and we'll keep you posted when we finalize that choice.

Moderator

Okay, makes sense. And then, you know, maybe just digging into the sales side a bit. In the shorter term, you did talk about how there was some improvement into October. I think you're back to flat traffic. Was that pretty uniform across your store base? Were there some lagging regions that perhaps improved? Could you tell us more about that?

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Yeah. I mean, we had, you know, pretty great strength coming out of September into October. Some of the pressures that we felt in September were really around more return to normal seasonality. So prior to COVID, you know, the restaurant sector in general, and us, us included, tend to see a much bigger drop off from August to September. Last couple of years, it's been a little bit more muted. We saw more of that normal type behavior in September. And then in October, you know, we opened up some additional funds while still leveraging G&A to do some really exciting sales-driving initiatives. Some of those were in our own channels, some of those were leveraging opportunities, you know, more broadly. And, you know, we were really excited by how successful that was.

There are some regions, and we're not, you know, gonna go into too much detail, but we talked about the West being a little bit more pressured by infill. So that, you know, is continuing to be a theme as we just kind of work through some recent openings.

Moderator

Makes sense. And then, as we look ahead, I think you did call out, you know, kind of the tougher compares in the Q1 . Part of that was LTO driven. Could you remind us of the timing of that last year?

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Sure. W e launched White Truffle last year in the middle of the Q1 . It was extremely successful. This was our, you know, White Truffle sandwich. We had White Truffle fries around it. One of our most successful, if not the most successful, LTO that we've ever had. It's also our most expensive. So we're going to be lapping over that in the Q1 . It was so successful, however, it did sell out early. And so we had a little bit of a blip in our LTO schedule in the Q2 , and we believe we felt some traffic and definitely some mixed pressure from just running out of that big, just key banner product early.

And throughout the summer, we had, you know, various points where we were running without a, a marquee, LTO. We currently are running a hot sandwich LTO, and very pleased with, you know, kind of what we've been seeing on that front. But we are comparing over last year's very successful Hot Ones. And so we've, we've called that out as well. But what's really great, and we're excited about the culinary calendar for next year, we expect to have a much more consistent calendar. We're going to be having, you know, a fan favorite will be launching, in the Q1 , which, you know, we know we're going up against White Truffle, but we're really excited by the slate that we have, heading into next year.

Moderator

Mm-hmm. What's the typical uptake of, of LTOs? Do you find that's, that's a pretty significant driver for your kind of regular customer?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

It depends. You know, it's always hard to measure exactly what caused a person to come in, right?

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We do believe it's a frequency driver. We do know for sure, even in our digital channels, a lot of our strategy when we launch LTOs, is to give it a couple days in our channels only. So our most frequent guests in our channels get access, and we generally see our frequent guests have a return there in these early moments. So we do believe they're frequency drivers. We also know they're generally mixed drivers, right? You generally have a trade-up, but again, you start to lap these things. Sometimes they're a trade-up, sometimes they're by design, not. So we always see them as a reason to talk about Shake Shack, right?

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Just getting out there, making noise, talking about obviously, Shake Shack can do things that most other brands can't, like White Truffle. Not a whole lot of brands at our level who can execute that kind of premium ingredient, culinary-driven food menu at a hamburger joint. And we do that, and that's part of the story that I think has always been part of the strong brand opportunity that Shake Shack has, which is how we use our LTOs. Right now, we're doing a deal with Universal Studios, where the Trolls movie, if you've seen the Trolls movie, or your kids have seen it, we're doing Trolls Shakes, and those are really fun. And that gives you an opportunity to access mass media channels with Universal Studios.

Last year, we had the Hot Ones media channel, so that was really cool, and we'll do that from time to time. So when we can team up on a great offer, that has a media connection, those can be really strong. So look, we love LTOs. I think they're just part of the, the experience. As we move forward, how do we think about LTOs? We want to keep doing them. Probably going to run fewer LTOs in total, but for longer periods of time.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We've learned that they generally stay strong. People like them. There's not some big falloff, generally, depending on the LTO, and it's operationally simplified when we don't have as many changes. So we'll, we'll keep a strong slate, but probably extend them a little bit, depending on the LTO, when we think they're appropriate.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We've got fan favorites that'll come back. We've got new innovations that'll be added, and we'll keep learning over time, what resonates with our guests. Sometimes it's surprising in one direction or another, what really hits.

Moderator

Yep. How is the plant-based burger?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Well, yeah, we have a great... So we have a vegetable burger. We try not to call it plant-based-

Moderator

Okay

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

... because we're definitely not serving what everybody else did, which was a named product that was more of a science fiction project. We created a vegetable burger made of vegetables and quinoa and farro, and all of the things, carrots and mushrooms, and really good true veggie burger from vegetables, and it's done quite well. So you know what? Something like that is obviously it's never going to be your top seller. At a place like Shake Shack, we generally sell ... you know, hamburgers, fries-

Moderator

Yeah

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

... chicken sandwiches. But what we're trying to learn over time, of course, with an item like this, is can you add that Veto Vote? Can you get that visit? I myself order it a lot. Well, I eat a lot of Shake Shack, as you might imagine, a lot. And sometimes when I just have probably, you know, had it a few times in a week or in a couple of weeks, or we had a big tasting, I might get our new veggie burger in a lettuce wrap or having an opportunity to eat lighter that day. And it's been a really nice item for that. We got a lot of feedback from fans who like it, and now the question is: Where does it land, and how much so...

You know, it's not going to be a massive traffic driver, I don't think.

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

But it's something we like, and we're glad we executed across the nation on that.

Moderator

Yeah, makes sense. Your point on marketing, you have. It seems like you've done more of that, right? And you do disclose annually how much you spent on marketing.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah.

Moderator

What's been most effective there? I mean, do you think that you can still kind of grow that as we look into 2022?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah, I think marketing, this to me, is one of the really big things I want to talk about with our shareholders. Help people understand. Shake Shack, we all know it, and we're sitting here in New York, and we have this gigantic brand, right? And we way punch above our weight. Everyone that says, "Oh, I can't believe you guys are actually that small." The reality is, we haven't really had to market very much. It's not been part of our strategy. Shake Shack has been a beloved brand since day 1 and had this incredible ride. Well, now we're at a scale where it's on, right? And we're not big enough. This is the challenge, right? The challenge and what will we do about it?...

The challenge is we're not big enough for the Shake Shack TV commercial at the Super Bowl. We just don't have enough doors to take back that investment, but we need to market more. We're widely geographically dispersed, and there's a lot of people who don't know. Well, one of the things that always amazes us is, in certain places, we know we have a lot of work to do to build true brand awareness and trial. There's more people than we think that don't know what Shake Shack is or are entrenched in their local habits or burger or whatever. So, what's been most successful, and what are we leaning into now? First of all, we're going to increase our marketing funds. You should expect to see that this year, in the next year.

That'll happen in as many directed, personalized marketing channels as possible. Really strong performance marketing, return on ad spend, we're seeing really good returns there. Various types of connections, offers, things that we're doing, both on our channels, sometimes in third party, and we've seen success in all of it. We just did a really fun promotion where we connected with some NFL players and said, if anybody in a game a few weeks ago, some of you may have seen this, if you score a touchdown and do a chicken dance in the end zone, we'll give free Chicken Shacks for a week. We didn't get our guys to do the dance. They didn't get the chance of scoring a touchdown, but a blogger, a podcaster did, so we did that.

Okay, so for a week, we gave away free chicken sandwiches. Now, so what happens there? We have a minimum spend, and what turns out, and this is, I think, the strength of Shake Shack's higher-income guest, the average order value in that promo, aside from the free sandwich, remains really high, really profitable offer, drives traffic, and some really fun stuff. So, like, we're, we're going to keep doing those kind of things, and you'll see us pop up. And from time to time, we may try Connected TV in localized places. If we have a region in the country where we know we need to build brand awareness, we may try really popping up with directed performance marketing and personalized marketing. So you're going to see that more in our channels and all our digital channels in ways that we need to increase the brand.

I think we'll, as we look ahead the next 3-5 years, we should be looking to continue to increase our marketing spend in smart ways where we see return.

Moderator

Yeah, makes sense. Okay. Just on pricing, I mean, you took, I think, a very small amount in October. It, it seems like you'll be fairly restrained on that, but, you know, how do you kind of think about that into next year if there is still kind of healthy food inflation? I think we know that there's still labor inflation. You know, maybe other things offset that. And also maybe just comment on California, if you have-

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Sure.

Moderator

said anything about that.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Absolutely, yeah. You know, while we've done a lot operationally to help offset some of the inflationary pressures that you know we are facing today and we anticipate to face into next year, pricing will be part of you know our strategy into next year. And you know we have room to take additional price, and in particular, in certain channels and in certain markets. And you know it's going to be one of the things that we lean on next year as a way to you know as we've talked about building margins higher next year than this year. In California, specifically, we have kind of a mid-teens percentage of restaurants there.

You know, some of those are in areas where we already pay kind of close to $20, and others are in areas where that leap is going to be a little bit greater. And so, you know, we'll be compliant, obviously, with the local laws.

Moderator

Yep.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

and take the price that's needed to offset that pressure.

Moderator

Okay, makes sense. Maybe let's move on to store development a bit. You'll do, you know, roughly 40 owned stores this year, suggesting a similar number next year. Mostly existing markets, I think, is what you said.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah.

Moderator

Any sense yet for how many of those will be Drive-Thrus or kind of alternative format stores? How do you think about that?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah, and in addition, I always want to remind everybody, we'll also do about another 40 in our licensed business, which I think is one of the most least talked about, undervalued parts of the business that we want to make sure we're talking about. So we're going to build about 80 Shacks this year and a similar amount next year per our guidance. When we think about formats right now, we've learned so much in these last few years. Another important thing, everybody should hear this: We've opened about half of our restaurants, half, since COVID.

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I mean, when you really think about the growth of this company and the opportunity forward, like, this is, this is still a very new company, and we are learning a lot. We've not perfected anything. We have a lot to learn. We think we have this amazing company and brand, and as we have learned about formats and other opportunities for development, it's really opened up a great opportunity. Yesterday, we had a 3-hour real estate committee-

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Meeting where we were looking at next year and 2025 pipeline. We feel really good about building pipeline. So, you know, this year we'll do a lot of Drive-Thrus. It just. That was the first initial push. We have not talked about the number that we will guide through as part of the 40, but it'll probably be just a few less than we did this year. I think we'll get between 17 and 19 Drive-Thrus this year of the class. That's a lot.

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Part of why the overall build cost is much higher this year as well. But we feel great about bringing that build cost down. By the way, there's lots of initiatives in our overall unit economics to bring down build costs. We've committed to about 10% reduction next year in overall average costs, as well as a 10% reduction in our pre-opening costs. So we're making commitments to improve our unit economic model. We're really excited about the Drive-Thru business, and we've been in the Drive-Thru business for a year and a half. So we got a lot to learn, and we're tweaking quickly. We opened a Drive-Thru this week and another one last week. So we've got another one in New Jersey opening hopefully around the end of the year, maybe early next year.

So that'll be our first kind of coastal, close-to-home market that'll get a Drive-Thru. So we're excited about that. But we also continue to see success in outlet centers, in core model Shacks, which will be the majority of our builds, and in other types that we think we can find success. So really excited about the development future. The team is deeply committed to building the appropriate amount of Shacks next year, with a lower cost, same or better guest experience, and really continuing to simplify-

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

More prototype, more templating, so that we can gain from the economies of scale we're now starting to get to.

Moderator

Yeah. Maybe talk about that. What, what do you think drives some of those build cost reductions?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah.

Moderator

Is there a size difference? Is this something that maybe we don't see, it's more of a back of the house?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I don't think you'll notice.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I think you'll still say, "That's a really cool restaurant, and it looks different than your average fast food." What's happened, let's backing up over the last few years, obviously, with the whole construction industry, costs have massively inflated: labor, materials, everything. That's still true. We're still getting out of... And we're not the only company. You talk to other companies, you know, there's people are still struggling to get that final piece of electrical equipment or HVAC equipment. I believe we exit that at some point next year, right?

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We're starting to get to normalized supply and demand curves on construction things. So I do think the competitive environment for bidding and overall cost will get better next year. In the meantime, we're then gonna we have been really attacking the prototypical designs of Shack. Now, that takes time. You're not gonna see that all happen next year. But as you look at 2025, 2026, and our, our path of our new prototypes, you will see things. So what kind of things will you see? You might notice maybe, maybe a little smaller in certain Shacks. Not all. Shake Shack is a community gathering place, like, we're not gonna give that up, but there will be certain Shacks that we can take in a little bit.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Our Drive-Thrus, they're gonna come in a little bit. We've learned how big they... Well, I shouldn't say we've learned anything yet, but we're starting to learn how big they can be, and, and achieve our sales goals and take the ... You're gonna see - you won't notice things behind the scenes, of how we build out the guts of a restaurant that we can just do better.

Moderator

Sure.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

In truth, of the kind of 500+ restaurants we have, we've employed a pretty bespoke model of designs to be of your place. We'll continue to do that in our flagship new locations and in places that need it. But generally, there's a lot of places in this world where we can start to much more often lay out a prototype and execute that at a better cost, faster, and do it. In the meantime, by the way, we continue to be a coveted tenant for landlords.

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

So, getting sites is not the challenge for us, right?

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

But we know this, this moment and the work we've done this year, and it will take some period of years, is to continue to tighten up that model so that we can do things better. And the last thing I'll say, and this is our, as we get into 2024, we said this on our last earnings call, our number 1 operational goal is consistency.

Moderator

Yep.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

You're gonna see that in kitchen design. You're gonna see that in the way we move food, not in how we change, how we cook, or bring in the same premium products, but in how we move things in a better way that we think can shave off a little time, can make our teams more consistent, and can contribute overall to our improving margin goals.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

So there's a lot happening behind the scenes.

Moderator

Don't worry, I have questions about that, too. But just in terms of kind of better balancing the opening calendar-

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah

Moderator

... has that been just a matter of getting ahead of things more or anything, you know, differently?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Well, you can ask any restaurant or retail company. For some reason, everybody always has back-weighted schedules.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

There's something about the universe, and it's not just us, by the way, or other companies, it's also landlords and dependency on landlords, and everybody rushes to get it in. And we've traditionally had back-weighted development schedules, and it's frustrating, and we do everything in our power to not make that happen, and it often happens. Last year, we had an extremely back-weighted schedule. We had, I think, 22 or 23-

Yeah

... of our company-operated Shacks open in the Q4 -

Moderator

Mm

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Last year. Good news: that didn't happen this year. We're much better spread out. We still have a bunch, and we've still got a bunch of restaurants we're gonna open between now and Christmas, but we're getting better.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We'll get better. There will be years where it's back-weighted again, and that's just, that's just part of our work. We have to continue to get better at that. It is always better when you can spread these things out. When you can't, we get it done, but it is tougher, and there's costs associated with it. We had some of that in the, in the previous years. So hopefully, we'll keep, we'll keep setting things up to, to be, to be more balanced.

Moderator

Yeah, makes sense. What have you observed so far about the Drive-Thrus? You know, throughput, customer use, it's still early, but what have been the-

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We've observed, and we've been part of surveys, too, national surveys, where we've observed we get really high scores on guest experience, really high scores on order accuracy, and the things that really matter. We are not the fastest. Now, by the way, the number 1 couple rated Drive-Thrus in the country also happen to be the slowest, in other brands. That's not a goal of ours, to be slow. Our goal is to give you a great product, and I think what we've observed is, we gotta keep improving that. We've gotta keep improving our speed. We know it matters. We gotta keep thinking about everything about Shake Shack, as you drive up and experience the menu board, how do people think of Drive-Thru's differently?

Do we need to think a little bit differently about how we present our menu so it's easier, quicker, you see and feel the value? We're doing various things to win that. We continue to see a significant amount of our guests come inside. So this is really encouraging for us 'cause we love the idea of adding Drive-Thru as a convenience when you want it. But we're still Shake Shack, and we want to be the place where you want to come, and you want to bring your kid for a shake. It's not only about driving around the back. When you want that, we got you. But we're still a community gathering place, and we've seen a significant percentage of people still coming in, and we love that.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We know that what we built is big and expensive, and we got to rein that in. So I think that's the work.

Moderator

Yeah. You still see roughly... I think you previously said, like, 50/50 drive-thru in-store?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I don't think it'll be. Oh, sorry, of the mix. About right.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We haven't reported that in a while, but that's, that's the last time we've talked about it.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We have a lot of Drive-Thru open since then, and-

Moderator

Yeah

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

... many of them are brand new, so we're still shaking out where that lands.

Moderator

Okay. Why don't we talk about licensing a little bit, right? I think it's interesting because that's actually, I think, faster growing right now in unit growth terms. I mean, you know, could that eclipse the owned stores over time? How, you know, how long will that take?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Well, today we're about 60/40 company-owned to licensed. Why do we license? Well, first of all, we love our returns, and we have for 20 years, and we like to keep those for ourselves, so we generally like to own our restaurants in this country. We think that's the best. In places here, like airports, stadium venues, roadsides, we see a great opportunity to team up with licensees who can get those locations. We've had an amazing year in our airports, amazing. We see a lot of growth there. We've had new growth that we're super excited about in roadsides. Anyone driving down the New Jersey Turnpike or Garden State Parkway, and now up the New York Thruway, we're going to be in most of those centers, and we're super excited about that.

Think it's a great unlock and a great way to just exceed expectations in moments when your expectation is that food's gonna be bad. And when we look at the world, we are growing a big business in China, in Asia. We have a maturing business in the Middle East, in the UK, in Mexico. We just opened our first drive-thru last week in Mexico. Super excited about that. So we love it. It's really important to remember for the licensed business, it is a asset light, highly accretive, very profitable part of our business that also is massively brand accretive globally. And I'm not sure how many brands at our scale and through this journey have ever created that opportunity. This drive-thru we opened in Mexico, it's 2 hours outside of Mexico City.

2 hours outside of Mexico City, there were 250 cars lined up. 250 cars lined up down the street to get there. I don't know how many brands can continue to cause that to happen at scale all over the world, and that's the brand power we have. So we're leaning into licensing. I think, as Katie and I have said, you know, China's gonna be interesting. You know, we don't know right now. We have a massively growing business in China, but, like, the economy's gonna do something next year. Nobody's quite sure. You know, you see people talking about this all the time, and I think we're gonna have to watch that in the near term, because that's a big part of the business, but we see big opportunity there as well.

Love the licensing part of our business and really like the balance.

Moderator

I assume that's more kind of that comment is more specific to demand. You still have, you know, licensees that I assume are committed to growing there.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Absolutely.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Absolutely.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We have more than 30 restaurants in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau. It's a real business-

Moderator

Yeah

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

... and it's gonna, it's gonna continue to grow.

Moderator

Right. Anywhere that's been, you know, somewhat less successful, or what do you think has kinda, like, worked best as you've gone into-

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Internationally?

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I don't know about less successful. I would say slower growth, maybe. You know, Japan, we have 14 Shacks, 13 or 14. Japan is a different place, and we do really well in the Shacks that we have, and but, you know, it's not a massive, you know, let's grow, grow, grow culture-

Moderator

Yeah

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

... like China is, like Korea has been for us. So, you know, that'll be slower growth. The U.K. has been kinda slower growth for us, but recently we've added some really good Shacks in the U.K. this year, and we're, we're adding more. So it's, it's, it's less about, it's less about that than it is about, you know, it not hitting. I, I think as we look at next year, we've got some exciting openings in Canada, as well as Kuala Lumpur.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

So Singapore has been a great market for us. So a lot if you really want to understand the totality of the Shake Shack story, you should really go see some Shacks in Asia and around the world and understand that part of our culture. It's pretty cool.

Moderator

Yeah. I have been to some in Japan. They're very impressive.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

So cool.

Moderator

Very crowded. Maybe let's talk just about the margin, the margin side. You know, you have gotten back to your targeted store margin range at this point. Maybe, you know... and you've provided quite a bit of detail on this, but talk about where you are on some of those key initiatives there. What's gonna be most impactful in 2024? Maybe, you know, labor scheduling has been a topic you've talked about, leaning into the kiosks, training, throughput, supply chain, whatever you think is kind of most important there.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Yeah, I'll just kinda start top down and work through. But we've had a number of initiatives in place to not only improve our margins, but also grow sales and improve the guest experience, and I'll just really start with kiosks. So kiosks, we've retrofitted nearly all of our Shacks now have kiosk in them, and you know, we're seeing at least a high single-digit check lift on the back of that. It's also our most profitable channel. And when you talk about kind of what we're doing on labor, part of what we're doing is now kind of at that next step, now that we've done the kiosk rollout, is then adjusting and getting more tight and bespoke on scheduling to adjust for that, plus a whole host of other you know, specific factors at each of the Shacks.

And so, you know, that work is ongoing, and we'll kind of update you as it goes into next year. But, you know, we're pretty optimistic by what that can do, not just in. It's not just about taking hours out of the Shack. It's about really making sure that we are optimized for staffing for peaks. So it's about making sure that we are capturing more sales and also providing a great guest experience. So it all kind of holistically goes together. And as Randy had talked about, consistent guest experience, that is absolutely what our teams are primed for, and that there, there's kind of a 2-prong benefit. There's more than 2 prongs, but 2 main prongs, benefits to a consistent experience, a consistent time for people to move through the Shack.

First of all, you know, not only if you are able to be more efficient and improve your throughput in the restaurant, you're able to process more people and get sales that way. That's all great. But, you know, for a longer term, you know, driver frequency, we think that's absolutely essential.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

You know, if people have a better understanding of what that time commitment will be for them to come into the restaurants, and it's a more consistent experience, our research has shown that they'll—they're just more willing to come back and increase their frequency on the back of it. On the supply chain side, our teams have been deep, deep, deep in the weeds on a whole body of work around the supply chain. You know, it's about both, you know, professionalizing and kind of maturing that team and their process and expanding the number of suppliers we're using, moving around distribution, and, you know, rethinking some things in order to just be more efficient and help offset the inflationary pressures that we face.

And then also, you know, next year we're looking at, you know, there's gonna be some areas where we're expecting to have inflation. So beef is the biggest risk that we've called out. But fries, buns, all of these things are still going up, despite the broader commodity landscape, some areas looking a little bit more favorable. But it's really the work on that side of the team and then also the close collaboration between finance and operations to help our team members understand how we can best navigate and expand margins within that framework.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

And then, you know, on other OpEx, we've done a lot to shore up profitability on that side, whether it is improving the profitability in our delivery channel itself, but also importantly, recapturing a lot of those sales through our own channels.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Sure.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

You know, our in-Shack business is growing substantially. We're really taking back a lot of that margin that was kind of lost when COVID hit. We've had just greater discipline around T&E, and certainly a more even opening schedule is helping on that side. But there's other, you know, other things that we've been doing. We've had benefits from R&M, and really across the board. So, you know, net, we've improved margins a lot this year. We talked about 400 basis points of improvement in the last quarter, and we're setting up for next year to be another year of margin improvements.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Brian, I, I just wanna jump in and just overall, I think it's so important. I ... and I'm here this whole time, and we've, we've been public for almost 9, about 9 years now, and there's a lot of this story that I think is important to make sure people understand. I'm sure most every-- I don't know everyone you cover, but I'm guessing they have many more thousand restaurants than us. We only own and operate about 300 restaurants in this country. The opportunity for us to acknowledge that we're not perfect, understand that everything we've built, we've learned from, and we have this tremendous opportunity moving forward to capture economies of scale. When we think about everything Katie just said in supply chain, and, you know, we had up until recently, we had 1 restaurant in all of Portland, Portland, Oregon, right? Now, we have 3.

We had 3 restaurants in Seattle. Now we have 5. All of a sudden, we've gone from 4 restaurants to 8 in the Northwest.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

And that entire thing radically changes everything. Imagine when we have 15 instead of 8, and that's true, it's true. And I think it's always important to connect with our shareholders to make sure people understand, like, we're actually still kind of small.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We got a lot of work to do, and we're expressing what that work is, clearly, but it is going to continue to take some time for us to truly benefit from the economies of scale that so many other big companies have. We're on that road.

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Mm-hmm.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We're on that road. It's a, you know, billion-dollar revenue company this year, and that's pretty awesome. A lot more when you add up our total system-wide sales, and that's the body of work that we're super excited about and see very clearly how over time, we can continue to capture some of those bigger economies of scale in a lot of places in our, in our P&L.

Moderator

Yeah. Yeah, makes sense. And I mean, you haven't guided 2024, but I assume that directionally, you know, you'd still expect Shack margin improvement next year. You're committed to G&A leverage-

Katie Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

We have talked about that, yeah.

Moderator

Yeah. To finish up, maybe I'll just ask my lightning round questions, which we've asked of everyone here. It's the same question. First, is demand backdrop for the year ahead compared to recent trends, would you expect accelerate, hold, decelerate?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I wish I had a crystal ball to truly understand the consumer right now. Everybody, all day, we're all talking about it. Good news, people are employed, seem to be spending. Shake Shack generally tends to have a higher-end consumer, but I think you've seen general industry traffic, for the most part, in most places, be negative, right? It made up a little bit by price, and I think we have to be cautious. We—I don't think any of us in the industry, Shake Shack included, knows exactly what the next year will bring. I think we're all hopeful based on signals that we've talked about and shared, but we've had our own, you know, we've had our own ups and downs in traffic, sort of at the end of Q3 , and then improving in October.

And I think our tactics on that will be everything we just talked about: increasing brand awareness, smart marketing where we can, smart all the tactics that we can against what is going to be, I think, an uncertain backdrop for a little while, and I couldn't tell you how long. But we think Shake Shack generally will be well positioned in this environment over the long term.

Moderator

Okay. And 2nd, margins year ahead, up, down, neutral? We kind of just talked about this. Presumably, you think that there's expansion next year. The third question is not really relevant to you on capital allocation because, you're a growth company. The question is CapEx, buybacks, dividends, debt paydown, you'll be investing in growth, so-

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

No current plan for buyback.

Moderator

Good then.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

We've never done a buyback dividend. No current plan for that. Now, we have a strong balance sheet, and we're gonna use it well, and we have, if you look at our history, and we will continue that with even more discipline.

Moderator

Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Looking at G&A leverage, as we've talked about, where we can capture some of the better improving unit economics and, making sure we're good stewards of the very strong capital position that we're in, and we intend to be.

Moderator

Okay, great. I'll end it there. Thank you, guys.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thanks, Brian.

Moderator

Appreciate it. Yeah.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thanks, everybody. Appreciate it.

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