Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)
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May 1, 2026, 1:15 PM EDT - Market open
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 4, 2023

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Shake Shack first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Annalee Leggett, Director of Investor Relations and FP&A. Thank you. You may begin.

Annalee Leggett
Director, Enterprise FP&A and IR, Shake Shack

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining me for Shake Shack's conference call is our CEO, Randy Garutti, and CFO, Katherine Fogertey. During today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliation to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release in the financial details section of our shareholder letter. Some of today's statements may be forward-looking. Actual results may differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K filed on February 23rd, 2023. Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements if our views change.

By now, you should have access to our first quarter 2023 shareholder letter, which can be found at investor.shakeshack.com in the quarterly results section or as an exhibit to our 8-K for the quarter. I will now turn the call over to Randy.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thanks, Annalee. Good morning, everyone. 2023 is off to a strong start with first quarter results ahead of our expectations as we grew sales, expanded margins, and remained disciplined on expenses across the company, including G&A and CapEx investments as we execute against our strategic priorities. We generated total revenue of $253 million, up 25%. Average weekly sales of $73,000, up by more than 7% year-over-year. System-wide sales grew 28% year-over-year to nearly $395 million as our licensed business globally posted our strongest quarter ever. Same-Shack sales were up 10.3% with positive traffic of 4.8%.

As we've shared, the team has maintained an intense focus on growing profitability, and we executed on that goal to bring restaurant margins up to 18.3%, a 310 basis point improvement over last year. We opened 6 company operators and 7 licensed Shacks in the quarter. We have 25 Shacks currently under construction on our way to opening about 40 new company-operated Shacks this year. Based on our increased pipeline and strong execution in our domestic and international license business already this year, we're raising guidance today to 30-35 Shacks expected to open throughout 2023. Quarter to date, solid momentum has continued with AWS in fiscal April rising to $77,000. Same-Shack sales about 4% and tracking well towards increasing our Shack-level margins back above 20%, which Katherine will talk more about in a bit.

Now I want to provide an update on how we're executing our strategic plan. We're really proud of the team's progress in each of our priority areas. First, we're focused on recruiting, rewarding, and retaining a winning team. It's been a challenging few years for staffing in our industry, this quarter our team showed solid progress. We believe the macro hiring environment, while still demanding, has begun to improve. With that backdrop and the new tactics of our people team, we've improved application flow, turnover, and retention since last year. Our increased pay, benefits, and opportunities for leadership development at all levels are resonating with our teams. There's no question this will translate to better performance overall.

Each of these metrics contributes to better throughput, optimizing sales, increasing our operating profit while building a bench of talented leaders to achieve our growth goals and provide real advancement for the lives of our team members. Our work here is never done, and we plan to double down on these efforts to expand on this improvement. Our second priority is our relentless focus on the guest experience. With the people improvements I just mentioned as a strong foundation, we can better execute our core operations focus, menu strategy, and digital tools. This quarter, we captured strong performance and guest satisfaction with our premium White Truffle Menu. At our Innovation Kitchen and throughout our supply chain, we are constantly testing new and exciting menu items for our guests that highlight our commitment to premium ingredients and the kind of menu items that only happen at Shake Shack.

We have a strong lineup through the remainder of the year. We're continuing on a path of leading with innovative culinary offerings that use premium ingredients to drive frequency and new guests. This week, we launched our new Veggie Shack nationwide. It's a delicious only at Shake Shack burger patty packed with real food, full of mushrooms, sweet potatoes, carrots, farro, quinoa, topped with American cheese, crispy onions, pickles, and ShackSauce. We also launched our non-dairy frozen custard shake nationally. In addition to our longtime guest favorite 'Shroom Burger, we believe these options can target current guest frequency and capture new guests over the long term. This summer, on top of the success of our premium lemonade category, we'll be launching caffeinated Shack lemonades for those guests looking for our classic lemonades with an extra zip. Stay tuned for more to come this year.

Just one more fun brand note. Our team continues to execute dynamic chef collaborations, regional marketing programs in our local communities, and attract valuable national media attention. Last month, we teamed up with Universal Studios as they took over our Brooklyn Shack for the launch of The Super Mario Bros. Movie premiere. The event was emceed by Chance the Rapper and helped kick off the extraordinary success of the movie. The team continues to target national media partnerships as we look to grow our brand and footprint. Third, we're executing on a targeted development strategy for growth. As we've discussed, and you're seeing around the industry, persistent inflation in construction costs, permit delays, and equipment availability continue to impact openings and our near-term returns. The team is making significant progress on accelerating pipeline, prototype design, and new Shack openings.

Year to date, we've opened 9 Shacks with strong sites in Walnut Creek, Portland, Oregon, Jersey City, and more. I want to take some time today to share some of the work the team is doing to improve our returns on Shack builds over the long term. This year, we expect to open up 15 drive-throughs. Now with this higher mix of drive-throughs and ongoing inflation pressures, we do expect our build costs for the class of 23 to be somewhat above last year's average. While our core Shacks are impacted by inflation, most of that system average cost increase is due to our commitment to drive-throughs that cost more to build than our traditional core Shacks. What are we doing about it? Since the drive-through project has begun, we've learned a lot, and we are honing in on cost reduction elements of the design.

We're refining templates for efficient and more standardized operations. This year, we expect to reduce drive-thru costs by about 10% versus 2022. In future years, we'll be rolling out new and tighter prototypes for drive-thru and core Shacks, focused on combining the great Shack experience we're known for at a reduced cost and ability to scale. Long-term costs will vary depending on sites and geographies that we target. As an example, next year, we may spend more on certain drive-throughs in the New York Metro and California markets. We correspondingly expect a strong return on higher sales there as well. We're working on our next generation of designs with an aim to execute on additional cost-saving measures.

We're going to optimize the size of the Shack box, how many seats we need, standardized kitchen designs, and building materials that can reduce total cost of future Shack classes. This work takes time to roll through the system. While you won't see an immediate impact this year, this intense focus, balanced portfolio of Shack types, and new next-generation prototypical designs will add up to more savings over time on our cost to build and overall returns. We're committed to further improve this part of our economic model, and we're really excited about what's ahead. With regarding the license business, we saw extraordinary growth and execution in the first quarter, and we expect that trend to continue. Our team has performed exceptionally well in China, and our domestic business continues to grow. We continue to expand our global footprint as only the Shack brand can do.

We're unlocking new regions and formats with the introduction of development agreements in Israel and Canada, as well as new Shacks opening in roadside travel plazas throughout the U.S. I was fortunate to join our teams on a multi-country Asia trip this spring. I had the privilege of welcoming our first Shack in Bangkok to an incredible crowd with strong sales since opening. I had the chance to connect with our teams in mature markets such as Singapore and Japan, where our growth continues, and to plan ahead for our upcoming opening in Malaysia and potential other markets in Southeast Asia. There's a lot that's probably underappreciated and undervalued about this part of the Shack story and our strategy. My hope is that our shareholders take the opportunity to visit some of our international sites.

We take great pride in the amazing brand we share globally. I'm really thankful for our team members around the world continuing to execute and standing for something good wherever ShackBurgers are found. Our fourth priority is being even more profitable in our Shacks. Ahead of our own expectations, we delivered 18.3% Shack-level op profit this quarter. We showed strong progress on our key initiatives, including driving sales, especially in our own channels, labor efficiencies, off-premise profitability, and managing controllable supply chain and other operating expenses. There's still much work to do. There is risk around the macro environment and continued cost inflation this year. With the plan the team has put in place, we're guiding Shack-level op profit of 19%-20% for the full year. We see the opportunity to return over 20%.

Katherine will share more details on the work here in a bit. The fifth pillar of our plan is we build an enduring business. We are committed to investing with discipline. We're deploying capital towards strong returns in four main areas. We're going to build Shacks, update our current Shacks, invest in our digital infrastructure, and structure our home office capabilities to further support our restaurants. We remain confident that we can meet or exceed our long-term unit cash-on-cash return targets over time by growing sales and profitability and lowering development costs, all of which we emphasize in our strategic plan. We've got the right plan in place. We're pleased to see progress taking root. I'll now hand it off to Katherine to share more about the details of the quarter and expectations for the rest of the year.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Great. Good morning, everyone. We are proud of our strong results this quarter that are a direct outcome of our team's solid progress on our 2023 strategic plan. We grew revenue by 25% year-over-year as our teams executed well on recent openings and drove higher sales in our existing company-operated and licensed Shacks. We also showed strong improvement in our restaurant margin this quarter, expanding it by 310 basis points year-over-year to 18.3%. This is the highest first quarter restaurant profitability margin we have posted since COVID, and we generated record high quarterly restaurant profit dollars and Adjusted EBITDA in what is typically the softest sales quarter of the year.

We accomplished this despite the many profitability headwinds we faced, including the large number of Q4 and Q1 new Shack openings, ongoing inflationary pressures, and mobility measures in key markets like New York City, still deeply impacted from COVID. We did this by executing on our plan with some important highlights and actions, including tactically increasing menu prices to protect margins against broad-based and persistent inflationary pressures, by driving sales into our own more profitable channels, by showing better cost controls over our other operating expenses, and by bringing more kiosks into our Shacks, driving efficiencies and other benefits. We are reassured by these results, and we look forward to showing continued progress through the rest of the year. We understand the many macroeconomic risks that may further impact the restaurant sector and our results.

Our business has demonstrated a level of stability that now allows us to go back to our pre-COVID guidance practices and reintroduce full year guidance for total revenue, Same-Shack sales, our licensed business, and Shack-level operating profit. We are also providing a new guidance metric with full year Adjusted EBITDA. As we continue to observe a normalization of our trends, we are reducing our urban/suburban disclosures as regions are now a stronger driver of our performance compared to just the level of urbanicity. Now on to first quarter results. Total revenue was $253.3 million, up 24.5% year-over-year. Shack sales grew 24.1% to $244.3 million. Licensing revenue grew 36.7% to $9 million.

System-wide sales reached a record high at $394.7 million, up 27.5% year over year. With stronger sales and flow-through, as well as expense discipline, all points of our 2023 strategic plan, we grew Adjusted EBITDA by 163.9% to $27.6 million. This quarter, we generated $73,000 in average weekly sales and grew Same-Shack sales by 10.3% versus 2022, with 4.8% higher traffic year over year. Price was up high single digits, and our mix was driven by more guests returning to pre-COVID behaviors, including channel shift into in-Shack and smaller group sizes. We have discussed that a key strategy for us to improve our restaurant profitability is to drive sales into our own channels where we are most profitable.

We showed strong progress against that goal in the first quarter as we grew in-Shack Same-Shack sales by more than 20% year-over-year and more than doubled our total kiosk sales versus last year. Putting kiosks into our Shack is another key way we have identified to improve our sales and profitability, and we shared a goal last year to roll out kiosks to nearly all Shacks by the end of 2023. We are proud to report that we are executing ahead of this timeline. Kiosk order values are higher than traditional cashier transactions. Kiosk is our highest margin channel, and we are pleased with our return on investment here.

We are also pleased with April Same-Shack sales of about 4% versus last year and Average weekly sales of $77,000, up versus the $76,000 in March, despite shifts in the spring break calendar. In April, we benefited from driving a strong mix of sales into our own channels and had a lesser benefit from menu price than we did in the first quarter. Our licensed Shacks also performed well this quarter as we grew sales 33.4% year-over-year to $150.5 million. We have had successful recent openings across the world, and our partners have performed exceptionally well serving the strong guest demand, in particular in the U.S. with airports and our new roadside Shacks, as well as China and Mexico.

First quarter Shack-level operating profit was $44.7 million or 18.3% of Shack sales, 310 basis points higher versus last year, despite margin pressure from a large number of recent Shack openings and persistent inflation. Our strong performance this quarter was a direct outcome of progress on our four key priorities to improve our restaurant profitability. First, driving sales and prioritizing our channels where we are most profitable. We are leveraging targeted marketing strategies to drive awareness and visits. In addition, we are directing more business into our own channels by offering the lowest menu price there, early access to exciting LTOs, as well as value-added day part promotions. Second, targeting labor efficiencies and growing throughput. We're seeing great benefits here from recruiting and retention tactics, and better staffing is helping us to extend our operating hours and be more efficient.

Kiosks are another important tool to help drive efficiencies in our Shacks. Third, improving off-premise profitability and other strategies to lower our controllable expenses. From standards for condiments and lessening packaging in to-go orders to premium prices on third-party delivery, we continue to push forward opportunities to be more profitable in off-premise. We also showed strong progress here in the quarter with controlling additional elements of other operating expenses. As just an example, we were able to lower our repair and maintenance expenses that have been a meaningful headwind in prior quarters as we were able to secure additional needed supply for critical restaurant equipment. Lastly, we will continue to take a strategic approach to menu pricing and supply chain opportunities.

On this point, we are pleased with the guest reception to the price we've taken thus far. We will take approximately 2% price towards the end of the second quarter. This level is more in line with our historical annual price increases and is needed to help protect our profitability against persistent food and paper inflationary pressures. Bottom line, we are encouraged by the margin expansion we delivered in the first quarter. Despite the pressures we face, we have line of sight into further improvements throughout the year. On to the components of restaurant profitability. Food and paper costs were $71.8 million or 29.4% of Shack sales, 100 basis points below last year.

Our blended food and paper inflation increased by high single digits year-over-year, which was offset by the benefit from higher menu price. Additionally, with our focus on operations and investing in our people with training and retention programs, we were able to improve our waste impact versus last year. Our beef cost rose slightly versus last quarter levels and were down high single digits versus last year. Importantly, nearly every other item in our food basket showed accelerating cost pressures versus last year, including fry costs rising by more than 20% and dairy and other costs increasing by double-digit percentages.

Labor and related expenses were $74.3 million or 30.4% of Shack sales, down from 30.7% in the first quarter of 2022 and up 150 basis points quarter-over-quarter as we continue to make investments in our valued teams needed to staff and operate our Shacks. As expected, we faced profitability pressures from the 28 new Shack openings over the past six months, still working their way up to optimized staffing levels. However, in our more mature Shacks, our teams capitalized on strong sales and produced solid flow-through as we executed on our plan to improve our restaurant profitability.

Other operating expenses were $34.9 million or 14.3% of Shack sales, down 100 basis points from the first quarter of 2022, with our improvement coming from our menu price, driving sales in our own channels, lower marketing expenses, and better management of expenses like R&M. Occupancy and related expenses were $18.6 million or 7.6% of Shack sales, down 70 basis points from the first quarter of 2022, with the benefit really coming from higher sales performance. G&A was $31.3 million or 12.4% of total revenue. Excluding $1.6 million in legal settlements and professional fees, adjusted G&A was $29.7 million or 11.7% of total revenue, showing 90 basis points of leverage versus last year as we invest with discipline.

Pre-opening costs were $3.6 million in the quarter, and depreciation was $21.3 million. We realized net loss attributable to Shake Shack Inc of $1.5 million or $0.04 per share. We reported an adjusted pro forma net loss of $290,000 or $0.01 per fully exchanged and diluted share. Our adjusted pro forma tax rate, excluding the tax impact of equity-based compensation, was 17.2%. Our balance sheet remains solid, with $293.4 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter. On to guidance, which balances the strong underlying business factors we've seen so far in the first quarter with a degree of uncertainty around the consumer spending landscape and our current expectations for ongoing inflationary pressures.

This range does not reflect any additional unknown delays to our development schedule. For the second quarter, we guide total revenue of $269.5 million to $274.8 million with $9.5 million-$9.8 million of licensed revenue. We guide for both our company-operated and our license partners to each open approximately 10 new Shacks and for Same-Shack sales to grow by low to mid-single digits year-over-year with high single-digit price inclusive of the 2% price increase we plan to take at the end of the second quarter. COVID has had a larger impact on our business than many of our competitors. Its lingering impact on consumer mobility patterns, including work from home trends, has been a challenge for us.

Even with the pressures we face and persistent inflation, we guide second quarter Shack-level operating profit margins to reach approximately 20%, marking the highest level of quarterly profitability that we have delivered since the onset of COVID. With more consistent trends we're seeing in our business, we're able to finally reintroduce full year guidance for many metrics. For the full year 2023, we guide total revenue of $1.06 billion-$1.11 billion, representing 18%-23% year-over-year growth with licensing revenue of $39 million-$41 million. We expect to grow our system-wide Shack count by approximately 70-75 units this year, about 40 of which will be domestic comp-company operated and 30-35 operated by our licensed partners.

Our guide is for Same-Shack sales to grow by low-to-mid single digits with mid-to-high single digits price and consistent trends in our mix. Despite ongoing inflationary headwinds, we expect to deliver at least 150-250 basis points of restaurant margin expansion in 2023 and guide for a full year Shack-level operating profit margins to reach 19%-20% as we continue to execute on our strategic priorities. While we are focused on exceeding this bar, inflationary pressures are not abating. In this guidance, we're reflecting a degree of impact from potential consumer softness as well as beef inflationary pressures above and beyond what we're experiencing today. All else equal, if both of these risks did not materialize, we see a path for our restaurant margin to surpass 20% this year.

We are planning for food and paper costs to rise by mid to high single digits year-over-year, led by beef costs rising by a similar degree. We do not hedge on many components of our basket, including beef, which is the largest single part of our basket and an area where we see a significant degree of uncertainty around the cost this year. In the first quarter, our beef costs were up just modestly versus the fourth quarter and were down year-over-year. However, we have recently started to see our beef cost increase with broad-based challenges across the supply chain, and we anticipate this to be a material pressure throughout the year.

We are also seeing signs of even further inflationary pressures from many other items in our basket, including fries that are likely to cost us approximately 20% more this year than last. Above all, we are also making continued investments in our people as we focus on building up and supporting our winning team. This is resulting in mid-single digit year-over-year wage pressures. Taken together, our operating backdrop is not easy. Inflationary pressures still remain, and we believe we have the right plan in place to navigate and continue to show higher operating profitability despite these continued challenges. In fact, even with the inflationary and potential macroeconomic pressures, we are planning to grow fiscal 2023 Adjusted EBITDA by at least 50%-70% this year to $110 million-$125 million as we target achieving record profits this year.

We have line of sight to exceeding this range. However, this will be dependent on the degree of pressures we face throughout the year. We reiterate that our 2023 G&A guidance of $125 million-$130 million, absent the $1.6 million in legal and professional fees that are excluded from Adjusted EBITDA this quarter. At the midpoint, G&A would be 11.8% of total revenue, more than 80 basis points of leverage versus 2022 levels. Other guidance points, equity-based compensation expense of approximately $17 million, pre-opening of $17 million-$19 million, depreciation of $88 million-$93 million, an adjusted pro forma tax rate excluding the impact of stock-based compensation to be 16%-18%. Thank you for your time, and with that, I can turn it back to Randy.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thanks a lot, Katherine. We're really proud of the team and the way they continue to execute our strategic plan, driving sales and better profitability across our restaurants. We're gonna keep our focus on recruiting, rewarding, and retaining this team, relentless focus on the guest experience, opening great Shacks through a targeted development strategy, improving our margins, and investing with discipline for strong returns. I spent a lot of my time recently in our Shacks with our teams and visiting our partners around the country and around the world. We've been listening, learning, and working collaboratively across our teams to run better Shacks that are great investments and stand the test of time. I can tell you confidently that our brand carries a weight well beyond our scale today, and we continue to execute a plan to scale our business for tomorrow.

Hope we see you all soon for a ShackBurger. With that, operator, go ahead and open up the call for questions.

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. We ask that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up so that others may have an opportunity to ask questions. You may reenter the queue by pressing star one. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you very much. one question, one follow-up. The question just on the near-term concerns, Katherine, you mentioned, you know, the uncertain macro in the short term. I think investors are concerned of slowing comps of late. Your first quarter results beat expectations. I'm wondering if you can maybe share your thoughts on the trend through the quarter, ex the noise. There's obviously been a lot of noise. How do you read those first quarter results? More importantly, in April, with a 4% comp, looks like it would be a deceleration from the first quarter, but hard to tell when pricing's being lapped and different shifts and whatnot. I'm just trying to get your sense for how you think the consumer's behaving through the first quarter and through April as that impacts your second quarter outlook.

I had one follow-up.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Great. Thank you. You know, overall, I would describe the cadence of the first quarter as, you know, we started strong. We had a lot of very, you know, good new Shack openings as well, kind of helping as a tailwind at our back. Really kind of in February, and with the launch of White Truffle, kind of coincided about the same time, we did see, you know, above average sales performance in our more mature Shacks. We saw, you know, pretty healthy behavior from high-income consumers where, you know, we over-index too. You know, kind of throughout income cohorts, you know, we were pretty pleased with what we saw.

We are taking a mindful approach, though, as we're going throughout the year, for all of the reasons that you just discussed, and see, you know, are baking in, you know, some views about how the back half of this year could play out. From what we're seeing right here, we are pleased with our performance. I will say, as it pertains to April, you know, you're right, we rolled off about, you know, 3.5% menu price and an additional 5% increase on DSP that we took in March. That, you know, is part of what you're seeing right there. There were also some spring break shifts as well.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Understood. It doesn't seem like you're seeing a material change in consumer behavior of late when you back out those unusuals, or is April, would you say, somewhat of a deceleration?

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

We're very pleased with the trends that we have seen in April, consistent with what we saw exiting the first quarter. You know, that's just one month, so we'll have to see how the rest of the quarter plays out.

Jeffrey Bernstein
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Understood. My follow-up was just the restaurant margin outlook. I mean, very impressed with the 19%-20% guidance. I think you even mentioned there's potential upside to that 20%. Just wondering if you can maybe prioritize what you think are the greatest drivers there, or maybe more importantly, what's the greatest risk to that? Obviously, that's above expectations, and it just seems like the environment, inflation's getting worse, pricing's easing, and the consumer is just so uncertain, it would seem like that's aggressive. I'm wondering where you think there's upside versus where there's the greatest risk to that margin outlook. Thank you.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Yep. Thank you. You know, as we're thinking about the margin progression throughout this year and what really helped us in the first quarter achieve that 310, which actually is, you know, closer to 360 basis points of improvement versus last year when you adjust for the gift card benefit we had in the first quarter of 2022, you know, let's talk about what we did. You know, we drove sales, we drove sales into our own channels. We expect for that to continue to be a tailwind for us this year. We have key strategies in place to reward our guests to come into our restaurants, to come in and use our app and to do delivery through us as well.

We wanna see more of that throughout this year, and we think that's gonna be a benefit. You know, we're also really encouraged by the work that we've done around staffing, and improving, you know, retention around our team members. I think we're just really kind of early days in seeing that benefit. You know, Randy Garutti talked about the big, you know, increases that we saw in retention in the first quarter. We're seeing some lower waste here on the back of it, and we were able to be open longer hours. These are all things that you wanna see to help us be more profitable.

Conversely, you know, we have some of this in our guidance, I would say, you know, one of the biggest risk to achieving that range is, you know, if we had macroeconomic uncertainty outside of what we're expecting today, we had a more significant falloff in the consumer, and then beef. You know, beef, we've continued to say beef is the largest part of uncertainty in our basket this year. We're starting to see it pick up here. We've baked in our views right now as to what that is, if you're asking me, you know, where the biggest part of uncertainty is on the cost side, to me, it's beef.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Tamas with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Tamas
Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the consumer softness comment within your guidance. You know, can you talk about what you're assuming on the sales side of things? You mentioned margins could exceed 20% if there was no softness, but how much of a headwind to sales are you sort of thinking about right now? Thank you.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

We have reflected a modest degree of slowing into our guidance at the midpoint. If the consumer remains healthy, you know, there's a path to exceed that. However, if there is more material, macro, you know, economic contraction, than what we're pricing in our guidance, we may miss that. That's kind of how I would think about the guide on that side. You know, we over-indexed to higher income consumers. We were really encouraged by that 4.8% traffic we generated in the first quarter. And, you know, we have to just really kind of talk about White Truffle was the most expensive LTO that we've ever launched, and we've had very strong success with that. You know, what we're seeing today is that, you know, we're kind of that attainable luxury.

We're definitely gaining share at the high end. You know, we hope that that continues. For planning the business, we think it's prudent to take a balanced approach through the rest of the year.

Michael Tamas
Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Gotcha. Thank you. Then, you know, can you talk about what you're seeing from, you know, consumer habits in your drive-throughs, and/or maybe kiosks versus sort of like your traditional stores? You know, do consumers use your drive-throughs differently, maybe less beverage attach or, you know, less shake attach or something like that? More importantly, how does it sort of shape the way you're thinking about that drive-through business as you're building new units and going forward? Thanks.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

On drive-through, you know, we're still very early here to really report on key trends, but I will talk about kiosk 'cause we've had those in our system for longer and, you know, we feel better about talking about those trends. What we see in kiosk and what we continue to see even with doubling the sales year-over-year and having a substantial more or higher number of restaurants in our system with them is that when a guest goes to our kiosk and they see the visual merchandising of our menu, we see that they have higher checks than a traditional cashier order. We see that they add on more premium and higher margin items. That together really makes that our highest margin channel.

We're ahead of plan here with rolling out kiosk to nearly every Shack by the end of this year, and we're very pleased with the returns on that investment.

Michael Tamas
Director and Senior Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Jake Bartlett
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist Securities

Thank you. It's Jake. Thanks for taking the question. The first is on sales drivers. You know, my sense is that improved staffing and turnovers, you know, and maybe hours is one of the biggest drivers of that. Can you give us any metrics around that? Maybe, you know, how turnover might be improving, maybe average hours now versus last year. Anything to kind of just demonstrate the improvement that you're seeing on the staffing and the productivity levels.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Thanks, Jake. This is why it's the number one part of our strategic plan because, you know, when we see what we reported here, which is a lower turnover, higher retention, and a lot more people applying for jobs at Shake Shack in the first kind of year to date here, that's just a huge win in every way. Turnover is expensive. It is hard to train people, and mostly because you're just not up to the reps. You're just not up to the speed, throughput. That's where the most gains are gonna come from. I think that's what is a part of the strength of Q1. It's also a part of our confidence in the op profit guide for this year. It's a huge part of how we think we can get there. Now we need to see that trend continue.

Obviously, this last few years has been incredibly challenging on that front. We'll see. With a consumer softening, you know, who knows where that will go, but we expect those trends to continue. It's also the work that our team has done to make that better. I think you see it on, you know, the kinda hidden costs of all throughout the P&L. Especially just on the opportunity to optimize throughput. On hours, you know, we've been able to it's not like we all of a sudden magically just increased hours across all the Shacks. This is really just recapturing some of the hours that we had had given up when staffing challenges were more challenging over this last couple years. We're starting to be able to get some of those back in the first quarter.

There's a little bit more probably to go on that, depending on the Shacks and, you know, generally, seasonally, our stronger quarters are the second and third quarter. We can look at some of that expansion of hours, but, you know, taking care of our team, having them stay is a, is a huge win in every part of the business.

Jake Bartlett
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist Securities

Great. I appreciate that. You know, as a follow-up or actually a question, you know, I saw in, you know, in the release when you mentioned your target of ROI, new store ROI of over 30% or over 30%. I was a little surprised to see that that's what the recent store class has achieved, you know, given the margin pressure that we've seen over the last couple of years, elevated costs. Maybe if you could kind of break that down, you know, how the recent store classes have performed, was achieving that 30% or over 30% ROI really purely sort of like from new store openings or, you know, any other metrics to kind of help us understand where that 30% is driven by.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Our, the return metric that we use here, cash-on-cash return, we measure in the third year of operation. You know, really when we're talking about the Shacks that were impacted by COVID pressures where our returns were impacted. We're talking about, you know, our 2017 class came into its third year of measurement in 2020. That was a year of deep impacts here at Shake Shack and for the restaurant industry. No surprise there that, you know, sales have improved a lot for the 2017 class as they have for the rest of our company. And our profitability trends have done better too.

you know, same story can be said with the class of 2018 that comes into its third year in 2021, and to, you know, a little bit more, you know, lesser of extent the class of 2019. you know, with our expectations here to generate, you know, about 19%-20% Shack-level operating profit for the overall company and the recovery that we have seen in, you know, the class of 2020 Shacks and the rest of our overall base, you know, kind of with the targets to hit, you know, $110 million-$125 million in Adjusted EBITDA this year. On the build cost for the class of 2020, we expect that to exceed our long-term guidance range of at least 30%.

Jake Bartlett
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist Securities

Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Drew North with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Drew North
VP and Senior Research Associate, Baird

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I just had a quick follow-up on labor. Randy, you mentioned the lower turnover is providing confidence in the op profit guide for the year. Maybe this is for Katherine, I guess, how are you thinking about the magnitude of leverage on the labor line in the context of your guidance for the year?

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

You know, we're expecting, you know, we're kind of in our guidance range for 19%-20%. We're kind of expecting everything to kind of hold here from what we're seeing. It's possible that, you know, we do better than that. It's possible that, you know, we have, you know, more pressures on that side. We think that right now, kind of assuming that we hold the current level, is appropriate for guidance. You know, there's also some, you know, some things that are helping us on the labor side, probably with retention, end up actually costing us a little bit more as well. Let's talk about tips. We offer tips to our team members in basically every channel right now.

Our guests have been, you know, stepping up and rewarding our team members for such excellent service. You know, there's a cost to that that we also face in our restaurant P&L on the labor side as well. That's just, you know, something to think of as you're thinking about this year versus last year and prior years.

Drew North
VP and Senior Research Associate, Baird

Okay. Thank you. One other. It looked like the shareholder letter mentioned lower marketing expense benefiting the other OpEx line. Sounds as though you're being more targeted there. I guess perhaps you could just expand on your plan for marketing this year relative to prior years. Thanks.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

What you're seeing there is a change of classification for marketing programs that used to hit the Shack level that are more national in nature. That's what we're talking about. When it comes to marketing, we're only committing more this year. You'll see that in G&A. You will see some of that in Shacks when it's direct marketing to that specific restaurant. That's not a call-out on any kind of less marketing. That is, we're gonna do more nationally, and we're gonna do more regionally as well.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

In the first quarter, we did have a little bit of shift in some of our Shack level marketing projects, which we expect to kind of realize later this year.

Drew North
VP and Senior Research Associate, Baird

Okay. Thanks for the clarification there. Helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Sanderson with Northcoast Research. Please proceed with your question.

Jim Sanderson
Equity Research Analyst, Northcoast Research

Hey, thanks for the question and congratulations on a great first quarter. Wondering if you can walk through how pricing will impact same-store sales on a quarterly basis. I think you've got 3.5% that's rolling off in March, and then you're going to take an additional 2%. Just kind of level set that for us so we can understand how that's going to flow through for the next three quarters.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Great. Thanks, Jim. You know, starting off the year, we had, you know, very high single-digit pricing. That's what I would kinda describe that as. You're right, we rolled off in March. We rolled off 3.5% menu pricing and 5% additional DSP pricing. We're kind of now trending at the lower end of that high single-digit range. And, you know, depending on menu mix and other, you know, channel mix. Kind of expect to have that be the case for most of the quarter. We're gonna be taking, you know, the 2% late in the second quarter. We're gonna be holding that. In October, we're gonna be rolling off that... You know, we said we took between 2%-10% across channels or...

Sorry, across a variety of different price tiers. That will come off. We'll end the year at, you know, basically 2% price. We haven't made any announcements on any additional price increases.

Jim Sanderson
Equity Research Analyst, Northcoast Research

All right. No, understood. Thank you very much. Just wanted to follow up too, a little bit on the discussion on kiosks. You talked a lot about what you've observed as far as higher average check, but I'm wondering if those kiosks, once you have those in all of your stores in the United States, if that's gonna unlock some lower labor costs in the form of, fewer budgeted hours or anything you can tell us about how that could enhance store labor productivity once it's rolled out.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

It's a great point, and we're really excited about kiosks. I think we're just really early days here on both that point, we're certainly seeing some signs of labor efficiencies in Shacks with kiosk. Also just on unlocking, you know, additional capabilities with the kiosk. You know, I'm really excited by what this, you know, enables our team members to accomplish in Shacks, how it enables us to, you know, better target the labor in the Shacks and provide, you know, hopefully a better guest experience. You know, the natural checklist that you see from kiosk orders relative to cashier checks, helping people to understand our menu and our offerings better. You know, I think we're just really scratching the surface to what we can do here.

Jim Sanderson
Equity Research Analyst, Northcoast Research

All right. I'll pass it along. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Maggie O'Hearn with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Maggie O'Hearn
Financial Advisor, Raymond James

Hi, thank you for taking the question. This is Maggie O'Hearn on for Brian Vaccaro. We just had a question on the other OpEx line. Could you quantify the benefit you saw in R&M in 1-2 2023? Do you expect a similar year-on-year tailwind through the year? I know there could be a difference in comparisons there, so any perspective there would be helpful. Thank you.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

What happened in other OpEx this quarter, if you look at kind of where we've been focused on our strategic priorities, it's really on addressing, you know, what the controllable expenses that we have. The supply chain challenges that we faced in general, which have been a pressure to our ability to open restaurants, we've also talked about that being a pressure for our ability to replace equipment, and it was resulting in higher service costs for that equipment. Our team did a really good job identifying a lot of opportunities to upgrade and replace much needed equipment in our restaurants. You know, we're expecting them to continue to act on that plan throughout the rest of this year. You know, that's kind of the benefit we're seeing there.

I would say the other, you know, pretty important benefit though, that you're seeing on other operating expenses is really just, you know, pushing more and more sales into our own channels. That's helping us leverage a lot of expenses on that line.

Maggie O'Hearn
Financial Advisor, Raymond James

Thank you. Could you also go over what digital mix was in the quarter and maybe provide some color of what kind of trends you're seeing in those off-premise channels?

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Sure. We had a 36% digital mix in the quarter. That includes app, web, and delivery. That does not include kiosk. Really the story there is that we're seeing our gains come back from in-Shack. You know, we doubled our kiosk sales year-over-year. You know, that's not part of the digital mix. That's part of our in-Shack transaction. Our Same-Shack sales for in-Shack grew over 20% year-over-year. We're seeing more and more guests come back to the kind of normal pre-pandemic purchasing habits. At the same time, we're also driving more adoption and usage of our app.

Maggie O'Hearn
Financial Advisor, Raymond James

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Ivankoe with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

John Ivankoe
MD and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hi. Thank you. I know that the industry actually did show net unit growth, I mean, at least according, you know, to some industry numbers, 22 over 21. You know, I was curious, you know, and I, and I think this could go both ways, you know, both, you know, closures and openings, you know, of how maybe you see your trade area competitive dynamics change. You know, I mean, I think we all know there's not exactly another Shake Shack, but there certainly are many competitors that are going after at least, you know, your type of customer and probably the day parts of which they use it, maybe even the channels in which they use it.

Can you talk about, you know, how the competitive environment might be evolving, you know, even if it is in, you know, specific markets or when we really take a step back and look everything, are we pretty status quo, you know, 23 over 19, and your success is really going to be dependent on what happens within your four walls? Thanks so much.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

John, that's a great question. I'll start with how you ended. Like, there's no question our success is gonna be how we run our restaurants. That said, you're absolutely right in hitting on the changes of dynamic of how real estate and sites are working. Broadly, I would say that the toughest competition out there is for great drive-through pad sites right now, right? You're seeing that with everybody. Everybody's looking for that. We are fortunate we have such a good brand. There's a lot of landlords who really want us to take that space, but that's probably the hottest. You know, I think you're seeing some easing in kind of the regional mall type and some of the urban.

Again, urban's a big word, and there's lots of places in urban centers that we're going to continue to go that we think are great. Our strategy within all that is balance. We've made a big commitment to drive-through, as you know. We think it's a huge potential part of our business, and we have a lot to learn on the kind of sites we need. We're going to learn a lot more this year as we add another 15 and more than double the size of our drive-through template. We're also going to learn a lot more even next year in drive-through as we do more of our Shacks kind of on the coast in some of the markets where we've traditionally had some of our higher AUVs. I think there's going to be a lot of learning there.

We're also gonna be cautious. I want balance. I want balance of core Shacks, some drive-thru, some smaller format, and within all of that's where you heard some of my notes earlier, talking about making sure that we can better templatize prototype design, save money over the long term. It's not gonna happen tomorrow. You're not gonna see it this year, but you will see it over the long term and our ability to just do a better job as we've now gotten to a scale where we can grow upon to take those learnings and bring down costs over time for drive-thru, for core, and for all those. There's a lot happening out there. We think 40 is a great number for this year, and we'll keep growing in the years to come.

John Ivankoe
MD and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

I like how you described urban as a big word. I mean, can you know, maybe like talk about that cohort specifically? I mean, is it, you know, is it a more open, competitive opportunity? I mean, certainly, you know, a lot of people are kind of being scared off, you know, from, you know, near offices and maybe even in certain cities themselves. There's still a lot of people that need to eat lunch and dinner that, you know, that have money and, you know, it's like, listen, I mean, some of the, you know, the actual migration trends out of the cities, at least permanently, you know, might be overstated at least in some of the press. How would you just see your competitive positioning just within urban itself?

I mean, have more customers left than restaurants? I mean, is it have more restaurants left than customers? Just talk about where you think, you know, excuse me, that balance is and how you're positioned within cities themselves.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Yeah, I don't think it's landed yet is the answer. I think there's a lot of great headlines you read, and for the most part, urban centers are really doing great. As we've shared, even some of our highest volume Shacks in some of our deepest urban communities, New York, Downtown San Francisco, some others, are still impacted. Still impacted. When you lose some portion of workers, whether it's some Monday or all of Friday or some shifting, that's gonna have impact. We still have that impact as a lag on our business. It's part of this drag that we've seen. Again, we continue to see those trends improving, which is all part of our guide for this year.

That's why I said urban's a big word because and part of why we're, you know, not gonna continue to show the urban/suburban breakdown is 'cause these things are stabilizing, and all suburban is not equal, and all urban is not equal. There's lots of different types within there. When we think about our strategy, we will continue to go to urban environments where we think there's great opportunity. Let's just take a second on, 'cause I know sometimes we overdo New York and its impact on this company. When we think about what we just opened in New York, you know, in the last year, we've opened a great site in the Meatpacking District. We've opened one in Brooklyn, in Kings Plaza. We've opened one in Jamaica, Queens, and you'll see us open on the Lower East Side.

These are neighborhoods we haven't gotten to yet. These are neighborhoods much less impacted by any kind of urban shift. That's the way we're thinking about urban, is making sure we're going to the best type of sites when we go to cities, and we think there's a big opportunity there. We're gonna continue to bet that there's some great long-term returns in urban markets and probably more of our Shacks in this next couple classes will be kind of more suburban type.

John Ivankoe
MD and Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Good morning. I had another question about the kiosks too. Besides kind of the, you know, the check benefits that you mentioned, are there other things that you see in terms of, I don't know if there are any labor hour savings or maybe you can just redeploy some of those labor hours? Do you see better throughput in the units that really have higher kiosk order volume? What how else could you quantify that?

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Hi, Brian. yeah. With our kiosk orders, our kiosk Shacks, what we tend to see is, you know, we're able to run them a little bit more efficiently, than Shacks without kiosk. You know, while we made significant improvements in the first quarter in our staffing and retention, if I just look back to, you know, the third and fourth quarter where the industry was deeply impacted, you know, we were able to leverage kiosks. Our operators were able to leverage kiosks as a key tool to let them operate, when they were a little bit thin on staffing. That we continue to be really pleased with having that tool at their fingertips.

Really, you know, when you think about the guest experience and what our guests like to see, you know, we still have a portion of guests that come in, and they wanna have that face-to-face human transaction, communication connection with the cashier. We have a ton of guests who come in, and they wanna just go right to the kiosk. They wanna sit there and learn about the menu and see, you know, build up their tray, kinda go from protein, to fries, to shake, cold beverage, and so forth. It's a really amazing experience. If you haven't used one, I highly encourage you to go. What we see is we have higher checks. We have people adding both more premium LTOs, more add-ons on their existing burgers.

Maybe the ShackBurger more likely to have some more premium add-ons on it. We have a higher attach rate for cold beverage. Those are great margin additions to our check as well. You know, a number of our guests eat in our restaurants, stay in our restaurants, we get a little bit of a save on packaging as well. You know, overall, very pleased with what we're seeing in kiosk, I think we're, you know, I said it earlier, I think we're early days here and learning what the true potential for, you know, visual merchandising and other ways to connect with our guests.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks. Then could you just talk to us about your food supply chain a bit? Because, you know, as I recall, you have a, you have a different spec of some products, maybe more like specialty distribution. You know, for those of us that can more just see kind of spot commodity prices, do you typically, or versus some of your large peers, do you typically see less volatility in some of those key items like beef or fries? You know, or how does it move differently than what we might see for some of your peers?

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

I think it really depends on the item and the year. It's not an easy question to answer. Yeah, generally, commodity prices are going to be directionally where we head, but again, we're not just buying commodity beef, we're buying especially a all-muscle blend. You know, this is really good all premium, no hormone, no antibiotic beef, for instance. Same with our bacon. We generally ride the market, and when the market's up, it's generally up for us as well. That's part of what Katherine's talking about beef probably being the thing we're looking at most for this year. But when it comes to other things, I mean, yes, we've got some pretty premium ingredients, but I don't think there's anything necessarily more specialized about what we do, generally.

I think if you're gonna continue to see inflation up, which we do, it's gonna continue to impact Shake Shack and that's, you know. Then when you see one thing that might be down, those things lag as well. Just because, you know, for instance, the cost of chicken might be down, that doesn't mean the cost of processing chicken is down. There's a lot of other things that are going into supply chain expensive inflation right now, I think the market's not talking about enough, and most of that is labor cost. A lot of it continues to be shipping and logistics costs that are expensive and more expensive. Those things are not gonna ever go down, even if the cost of the commodity might temporarily be down. Look, the long term, we think we've got some opportunity, hopefully, if inflation cools.

This year, we're still expecting moderate inflation on most of the things that we will serve.

Brian Harbour
Executive Director and Equity Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Jake Bartlett
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist Securities

Great. Thanks for taking the quick follow-up here. You know, my question was on COGS and your expectations. It sounds like food cost inflation and menu price are gonna be pretty similar. The question is, do you expect COGS to be lower, as a percentage of sales in 2023, you know, maybe driven by some of the packaging changes, maybe some supply chains initiatives that you have? Trying to just get better understand what we should think about for COGS in 2023.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Yep. Yeah. We've guided for COGS inflation to be mid-to-high single digits. You know, we're seeing inflationary pressures, you know, pretty much across the board. You know, beef is kind of the biggest unknown at this point, where we're guiding for a mid-to-high single digit outlook on that side. Now, you know, what are the other things that are gonna impact what the COGS level is? Well, you know, part of it is waste. You know, certainly we're encouraged by the trends that we saw year-over-year in the first quarter. Staffing and training, you know, our team members and that retention, you know, that's helpful. It also has to do with menu mix.

The more cold beverage we sell, the greater the attach rate on that side, that tends to be a benefit for us. You know, we'll kinda have to see how the rest of the year unfolds. You know, with that kinda mid-to-high single-digit % COGS inflation, you're looking at, you know, probably, you know, kind of a high single-digit % price for the year. That should kind of help triangulate, you know, where that might land.

Jake Bartlett
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Truist Securities

Great. Thank you so much.

Katherine Fogertey
CFO, Shake Shack

Okay.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Randy Garutti for closing comments.

Randy Garutti
CEO, Shake Shack

Just wanna thank everybody for taking time with us this morning, and we look forward to seeing you soon at the Shack. Thanks. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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