Greetings, and welcome to the Simply Good Foods acquisition of Only What You Need. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press *0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mark Pogharian, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Simply Good Foods conference call to discuss the acquisition of OWYN, or Only What You Need. Here with me today are Geoff Tanner, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Shaun Mara, Chief Financial Officer. The company issued a press release after the financial markets closed today announcing that Simply Good Foods entered into an agreement to acquire OWYN. A copy of the press release and the accompanying presentation are available under the Investor section of the company's website at www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com. This call is being webcast, and an archive of today's remarks will also be available. Geoff Tanner, President and CEO, will begin the presentation with an overview of the business and provide investment highlights. Shaun Mara, CFO, will discuss the financials, and then we'll take your questions.
I would like to remind you that our notice regarding forward-looking statements is included in our press release and presentation. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied due to various risks and uncertainties. Important factors, including those discussed in our press release today, can be found in the Risk Factors, MD&A, and other sections of our annual report on Form 10-K and our other SEC filings. In addition, management will make reference to Simply Good Foods, adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure that it believes provides investors with useful information with which to evaluate the company's operating performance. Reconciliations of the company's non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable measures are set forth in the quarterly earnings releases available on the company's website. I'll now turn the call over to Geoff Tanner, President and CEO.
Thank you, Mark. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. It's an exciting day at The Simply Good Foods Company as we're announcing a strategic and compelling transaction that further enhances our leadership position in the attractive nutritional snacking category. OWYN is an ideal fit for our growth vision and further diversifies our portfolio. OWYN expands our presence in the fast-growing mainstream ready-to-drink protein shake segment with about $120 million in sales. OWYN products and consumers are incremental to our existing business and position us well to further build on our category leadership position with retail customers. OWYN's plant-based, simple ingredient, allergen-free profile is best in class, wins on taste and texture, and appeals to the growing consumer interest in clean label. Furthermore, OWYN is increasingly gaining mainstream appeal, sourcing some volume from existing dairy-based shakes.
Additionally, we believe we are uniquely positioned to accelerate OWYN's top and bottom-line growth, deliver on our acquisition model, and increase shareholder value. OWYN has built its brand using an impressive social and digital ecosystem, and similar to Quest, we believe the brand is at the right phase of its development to benefit from our expertise in growing brand awareness and trial using more broad-reaching media vehicles. Again, similar to the Quest acquisition, OWYN household penetration is low, ,so the runway for growth is significant. We have a strong and proven selling organization with solid retail customer relationships, and we are category advisors to most retailers. Our marketing and advertising investments drive consumers to the aisle, and we are confident that retail customer collaboration will result in accelerated distribution gains. There is also a big opportunity for further innovation.
We'll leverage the knowledge of both of our R&D teams to support product enhancement and extensions into new forms. Shaun will provide you with the details, but at a high level, we have entered into an agreement to acquire OWYN for $280 million, or about 2.3 times 2024 net sales. Given OWYN's growth rate, it is additive to our long-term growth algorithm. We have identified meaningful cost synergies, the majority of which will be achieved at the onset of year two. OWYN will run as a standalone business for about one year. More on this in a bit. Net leverage at closing is anticipated to be about 1.5 times or less, and similar to our business, there is no meaningful CapEx. With that background, let me give you an overview of the OWYN business.
For those of you not familiar with OWYN, it's primarily a ready-to-drink protein shake business that was founded in 2017 and made its way to retail soon thereafter. Over the last couple of years, OWYN's management has done a terrific job improving the taste and texture of the product. Given the superior taste, the brand is increasingly appealing to mainstream RTD shake users as well as consumers interested in plant-based ingredients or a clean label profile. OWYN shakes are available in Tetra Pak and bottles and come in 20-gram and 32-gram protein offerings. Over 90% of the business is RTD shakes, with the remainder a developing protein powder business. The brand has experienced rapid growth, and as you'll note in the upper right corner of the slide, over all time periods, the year-over-year increase in retail takeaway has been impressive and consistent.
Growth has been balanced with strong velocities and distribution gains. The channel mix is diversified, and OWYN has solid relationships with blue-chip customers in both measured and non-measured channels. OWYN is a scalable business with expected net sales in calendar 2024 of about $120 million, an increase of at least 50% versus last year. Near term, we expect OWYN's contribution to adjusted EBITDA margin to be below company margin as we invest in the business and achieve synergies through integration. As I mentioned earlier, OWYN's simple ingredients and clean label credentials are increasingly crossing over to more mainstream consumers who are currently consuming dairy-based shakes. Research suggests that at least 80% of shoppers are open to trying plant-based shakes, and many of them are attracted to OWYN because it is 100% plant-based and vegan, is non-GMO, doesn't use soy, and is 100% gluten-free.
Trust and transparency are the DNA of the brand. OWYN's finished products are independently tested for the top eight allergens, not random testing, but every lot, every time. Most of the products are sold in multi-pack, Tetra, or bottle format, and given the portability of its product offering, they're easy to take with you for that mid-morning or mid-afternoon snack or on-the-go meal replacement. The consumer base is incremental to our business with minimal overlap with our existing consumers. OWYN over-indexes with the large, highly desirable demographic, millennials and Gen Z consumers, that are 44% of the consumer base. These consumers tend to be more educated and higher income, and they'll tell you they consume OWYN shakes for a variety of reasons, including gaining strength, increasing energy levels, and preventing health issues. They want great-tasting products, and they're open to plant-based protein and simple ingredients.
OWYN's retail takeaway growth continues to be top-tier and has increased nearly 120% over the latest 4, 13, and 52 weeks, driven by a combination of higher velocities and distribution gains. The brand is a disruptor in the large, fast-growing RTD protein shake segment. It has quickly become the leading plant-based brand in the category that also appeals to mainstream shake consumers interested in clean label. The key to OWYN's success has been delivering on taste, where they have emerged as the best-tasting high-protein plant-based shake brand with liking scores that are getting much closer to dairy-based shakes. For these reasons, retailers love the business as it reaches a highly valuable, often incremental consumer. We anticipate continued retail customer collaboration and believe there is significant opportunity to increase trial and brand engagement.
OWYN also has a solid RTD innovation pipeline, and we believe there are white-space expansion opportunities for the brand in other forms. Needless to say, we're excited with all the levers of growth for this brand. As we integrate the businesses, we'll use the Quest playbook, which is about preserving the best elements of our respective growth-oriented cultures and implementing best practices across the combined organization. OWYN should benefit from Simply Good's go-to-market capability and category leadership position at brick-and-mortar retailers. Conversely, Simply Good will look to OWYN for any additional levers in non-measured, natural outlets like Whole Foods. As I mentioned earlier, OWYN will run as a standalone business for one year. This enables the very talented team at OWYN to focus on delivering the 2024 plan and ensures that our team remains focused on executing the Quest growth plan and the Atkins revitalization plan.
We have identified significant cost synergies, the majority of which will be achieved at the onset of year two. About one-third of the synergies will be derived from supply chain savings and two-thirds from SG&A related to the elimination of duplicative support services. From a supply chain perspective, we have familiarity with OWYN's co-manufacturing network, ingredients, and packaging. Our supply chain teams will deliver on identified synergies focused primarily on raw materials and packaging procurement, freight, warehousing, and distribution. OWYN's supply chain model has evolved as the business has grown, and on our platform, gross margin should quickly get to what we believe is the RTD protein shake industry average. As I mentioned earlier, similar to Simply Good Foods, OWYN has a highly capable in-house R&D team.
We'll look to leverage the collective knowledge of both organizations to provide consumers with continued product improvement and line extension while also looking at white-space opportunities where the brand can extend. Now to wrap up. Looking at our portfolio, we have three distinctly positioned brands across different segments of the nutritional snacking category, targeting different consumer groups. Importantly, brand switching analysis shows there is no meaningful substitution between OWYN and our existing brand. OWYN provides us with further diversification and presence in the fast-growing protein shake category, which is highly attractive given the habitual use of shakes and the continued strong momentum of the ready-to-drink shake segment. We, as well as the OWYN management team, believe Simply Good Foods is the right home for OWYN as we'll preserve the mission and vision of the brand while bringing it to a much larger audience.
I could not be more excited to work with Mark Olivieri and his team as we write the next chapter of The Simply Good Foods Company story. With that, I'll turn the call over to Shaun to discuss some of the financial aspects of the transaction.
Thanks, Geoff, and good afternoon, everyone. As Geoff said, it is an exciting day for The Simply Good Foods Company as we announce this transaction. Throughout this process, it became very clear to our management team and the board of directors that OWYN is a very compelling brand and business. Looking at the combined company after the transaction, about 97% of sales will be derived in North America. OWYN is a U.S.-only business, so the roughly 3% international sales is driven by legacy Simply Good Foods. Given that OWYN is primarily focused on RTDs, as you'll note in the pie chart on the middle of slide 11, it increases our exposure in shakes by 400 basis points to now be 23% of our total sales. Similar to Quest at the time of that acquisition, OWYN has a solid, profitable e-commerce business and is increasing distribution in the traditional brick-and-mortar channels.
Hence, we see an opportunity to apply our extensive FDM experience to increase OWYN's distribution and product offerings in these channels. In 2024, we estimate about a third of OWYN's sales will be generated in the e-commerce channel, resulting in the combined company exposure in its fast-growing class of trade of more than 20%. As we've outlined today, OWYN is a fast-growing RTD shake brand with accelerating margins that give us confidence in delivering on our long-term growth algorithm. Under the terms of the agreement, the $280 million purchase price will be paid in cash. This represents an estimated purchase price multiple of 13.3x adjusted EBITDA, including full run-rate synergies. We intend to finance the transaction by using approximately $50 million of cash on our balance sheet as well as committed financing from Barclays and Deutsche Bank.
We expect that the deal will close by the end of fiscal year 2024, and at closing, the net debt to Adjusted EBITDA multiple will be about 1.5x or less. Lastly, the transaction is expected to be approximately neutral to Adjusted EPS in the year subsequent to the closing, excluding one-time integration expenses and costs to achieve synergies. Note that we calculate Adjusted Diluted EPS as Adjusted EBITDA, less interest income, interest expense, and income taxes. Let me now turn it back to Geoff for some closing comments.
Thanks, Shaun. Let me end with a few closing thoughts on why this is a very compelling acquisition that meets our objectives of driving profitable growth and increasing shareholder value. First, OWYN extends our presence in the fast-growing high-protein shake segment of the attractive nutritional snacking category. Second, OWYN reaches a new and highly desirable consumer segment, namely consumers looking for plant-based, allergen-free, or clean label products, whether as part of a food philosophy or, as we are increasingly seeing, mainstream consumers looking for a clean option to put into their rotation. Third, OWYN is a high-growth business that has demonstrated triple-digit growth over the last 4, 13, and 52 weeks. Brand momentum and velocities are increasing, and distribution gains are another lever for continued growth. Fourth, Simply Good is uniquely positioned to leverage our capabilities in manufacturing, marketing, sales, and R&D to accelerate both top and bottom-line growth.
Fifth, the addition of a third distinctly positioned brand targeting a high-value, incremental consumer will strengthen our category leadership position with retail customers. And finally, our learnings from the Quest integration playbook, as well as our similar business models, co-manufacturing network, and retail customer base, should enable seamless integration. I want to say thank you to all of you for joining us today. I appreciate the lateness of the hour. Let me turn the call back to the operator so we can begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Matt Smith with Stifel. Please proceed.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks, Geoff and Shaun. I want to go back to a comment in both of your prepared remarks. Geoff, I believe you said that the acquisition would be additive to the long-term growth algorithm, and Shaun, I think there's a comment that it gives you confidence in achieving the long-term growth algorithm. So how should we think about the growth profile of the acquisition relative to your expectations for the existing platforms at Simply Good Foods to support your long-term growth algo?
Yeah, I mean, I guess just Matt, take a step back for a second. Let's look at Quest. When we acquired Quest, we had about $345 million in sales, and calendar year 2019, we basically got the $700 million into 2023. So, I think there's a big opportunity there, and we could double these businesses overall. The RTD protein shake market, as you know, is growing very strongly and continues to be a large opportunity for us. To me and to us, OWYN checks so many of the boxes: high protein, best-in-class taste, scores comparable to the dairy-based shakes that are out there, available in both bottle and Tetra, got a clean label and simple ingredients. So, we think it's more of a mainstream product. So, we think there's a clear path to doubling net sales in the next 3-4 years.
I'd probably build on that. I think about the growth opportunity for OWYN almost in three concentric circles. I'd say the first is that OWYN's a clear leader in plant and clean shakes, which is a fast-growing segment of the market, and we see continued upside as more and more consumers look for plant and clean. The second concentric circle would be we're seeing, and I mentioned this in the prepared remarks, more and more mainstream users looking to incorporate a plant or clean product into their rotation. Our research shows that 80% of shoppers are open to trying plant-based. We did our own product testing. What really impressed us with OWYN was how well their product performed on our own testing, much closer to dairy-based shakes than we thought. And then the further out circle would be extending OWYN into new forms, for example, bars.
I think those three circles really underpin our confidence that we can double this business three years from now.
Thank you. I'll leave it there and pass it on.
Thanks, Matt.
Thanks, Matt.
Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed.
Good evening, everyone.
Good evening, Alexia. How are you?
Hi there. So just to clarify, I think you said it would be neutral to EPS in year one. So is that before the synergies kick in in year two? I just wanted to clarify the timing of that.
Yes. Yes.
Okay. Perfect. Yeah, that was just a housekeeping thing. My main question is, you talked a lot about the cost synergies being sizable, and you've obviously done a lot of digging to be able to split them between supply chain and SG&A. Are you able to quantify how big those cost synergies are that you expect to realize starting in or from year two onwards?
Well, I mean, I think you take a step back. OWYN operates a very similar business model as Simply Good Foods, pretty much most of the same co-mans, consistent logistics, and very similar customer base. So we expect synergies coming from supply chain and G&A. About a third of those will be supply chain, about two-thirds will be SG&A. In terms of size, I think in general, M&A synergies in the food group historically are probably in the 5%-10% of net sales range. We've got a lot of core infrastructure platform in place from the Quest acquisition. If you remember correctly, we actually moved to the ERP. In connection with that, we bulked up resources in R&D and e-commerce.
With all that, I think we'll probably be higher as a percentage of sales than the Quest and basically more towards the broader end of that range, the higher end of that range.
Perfect. Okay, that's great. And then are you able to talk about where the gross margin is today? Because you talked about how I mean, I think the EBITDA margin after cost synergies looks like about 17.5%. But where is the gross margin today? And presumably, that will go up because of those supply chain and raw material procurement and all the other things that you mentioned.
Yeah, I mean, I think OWYN's sales have increased the last few years, and with that, the profitability trends have improved. It's about a $100 million business now, a little bit more than that. So it's really reaching a scale where profitability will occur naturally. And to your point, on our platform, profitability will increase in year two onward as we get the majority of the synergies in year two. We've done a lot of diligence here across all the functions that we have, and we have confidence in the margin continuing to improve. But as it relates to the margin for RTD businesses where products typically weigh out before they cube out, gross margin's closer to 30%. That's not dissimilar to the large publicly traded RTD company that's out there. So we'll get there over time.
Yeah, we see a pretty clear pathway to get to industry-average gross margins on OWYN.
Okay, great. In that case, I'll pass it on. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thanks, Marcel.
Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Hi. Good evening. Congrats on the acquisition.
Thank you.
You alluded to this in the prepared remarks, but I wanted to get some more color on how you're thinking about balancing the OWYN integration with revitalizing the Atkins brand and just how you're ensuring that this doesn't create any kind of distractions for that initiative?
Yeah, and you're going to obviously assume we spent a lot of time discussing that as we went through diligence, which is why we have made a decision to ostensibly run OWYN independently for a year. And there's really three reasons for that. They're a very talented team, and we want them to continue their focus on delivering, particularly their fiscal 2024 plan. It gives us time to integrate OWYN onto our systems and our network. And as you mentioned, Pam, we've got a lot of work going on right now, fueling growth on Quest and the Atkins revitalization plan. So allowing or letting the OWYN team run independent for a year will enable us to keep laser-focused on fueling Quest and revitalizing Atkins.
I would also say, Pam, that if you go back to the Quest integration, the complexity of that was a lot more complex than I think this is going to be. So allowing them to run alone for a year, which is not dissimilar than Quest for nine months, will basically let people involved with the integration of that because I don't think we need as many as we have with the Quest integration. So we really want to make it separate for a period of time to let us focus on growing the Quest business and the Atkins revitalization plan.
And so is that why you won't see any benefits from synergies until year two because it'll operate as a standalone business?
It's part of it, Pam. I mean, as Shaun mentioned, the Quest integration—sorry, that wasn't here, but it took I think about 9 months, right, Shaun? So letting it run independent for a year, probably the fastest you could run at this would be 6 months-9 months. But yeah, that is a reason why the synergies are you seeing us talking about them as year 2.
Yeah, and just to clarify, the reason why the synergies we need to get OWYN within our systems and within our processes and using our logistics provider to really realize those things. So there's a setup within that as well, within our systems, that allows us to actually process it through one customer and one invoice and all that kind of stuff.
Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Please proceed.
Hi. Hello again.
You're welcome back.
Thanks, Geoff. Hey, I wanted to know just a couple of follow-ups. One is, can you give any details on any earnout incentives that are in place for the existing management team? Is it just for one year, or does it go beyond that? And I just wanted to make sure I get the math here. I mean, mathematically, the OWYN brand would be adding 3% to your long-term growth profile. Do you think that you would increase your long-term algorithm eventually as a result of this, maybe after year one, or do you kind of want to hold back and see what happens to the Atkins revitalization plan before you do that?
Yeah, I mean, I think we'll probably hold off on increasing anything at this point in time. I think there's a lot of pieces to work on. We believe in the growth of this business, and I think we'll see how it plays out with the other two brands that we have overall. But I don't think we're going to take anything up at this point in time.
To your question on the management team without getting too into the details, it's an impressive team. I mean, they have built a very impressive business, by far the leading plant-based, clean label shake brand in the category. We've verified how good the product is from our own testing. Their repeat rates are really good. So our intention is 100% to keep working with the very top talented team at OWYN. That's a top priority for us.
Okay. Got it. Thanks, Geoff.
Thanks. Thanks, Rob.
Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens Inc. Please proceed.
Hi guys. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask about the capacity for OWYN. Kind of the growth looks very attractive, but I know in the ready-to-drink shake market, especially with the co-mans, there hasn't been a ton of slack capacity given the growth of the category. Can you just talk through kind of the flex capacity you have with existing co-mans with OWYN? Is there the ability to scale up with them as the brand ramps, or does that require either new facilities getting put in or just any color you can provide there would be helpful?
Yeah, no, it's a good question. I mean, the simple answer is that we don't have any concerns about capacity. Rest assured, it was a significant focus of ours through diligence. They have long-term relationships with a few manufacturers, and they have long-term agreements in place to meet their growth targets. So it was something we obviously went deep on diligence and not an issue.
Yeah, and if you take a step back and just look at the co-mans to support them, two of them they have three. Two of them are the same co-mans we use, and the third is someone we've evaluated for backup capacity. So we're very familiar with the capacity at these places, and we're very familiar with the agreements that they have. It's very comfortable that that could support the long-term growth we've outlined in our plan.
Okay, great. Maybe I can ask a follow-on to that. Given that you'll be absorbing OWYN, does it give you the ability to flex if you want to ramp up the Atkins shake line, for example? Can you utilize the co-man line space that OWYN has if that piece of the Atkins business ramps? Just as shakes have obviously been kind of a hot category, does it give you the ability to use some of that flex capacity for existing Atkins or products?
Yeah, I mean, I suspect we'll probably eventually negotiate with the co-mans a holistic view of this stuff in terms of capacity and for all three brands. I think we're not at that stage yet, and I don't think it's certainly not an issue for the next year or so. I think we have plenty of capacity for both our business and for their business. But that's something we'll have to figure out as we get into the integration of the two businesses and working with the co-mans on the long-term capacity and support for the shake line.
Okay, great. Thanks, guys. I'll hop back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thanks, Jim.
Our next question comes from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho. Please proceed.
Good afternoon. Thanks for the question.
Hey, John. How are you?
Geoff, first off, you noted the opportunities for trial, to grow trial for OWYN. But the inroads made by plant-based in the protein category thus far have been quite below what we've seen for plant-based and things like fluid milk. Why do you think plant-based progress has been so slow in protein? And what do you think you can do differently to spur awareness and spur trial?
Yeah, that's a really good question. If you look at this, I don't want to discount out of the gate the tremendous growth that OWYN has seen, 100%, in the last 14-15 weeks. And they have emerged as the clear leader in this space, which is what turned us on to them as a potential asset. We then went very deep in diligence. And what we uncovered is that what really separates OWYN is its taste. It has emerged as the clear leader on taste, liking scores. We did our own independent studies. And as you look at different categories, when the plant-based alternative gets close enough to the mainstream is when you see the businesses really explode. And if it can't get close enough, it tends to stay somewhat niche. And our belief is that OWYN has cracked the code on the formula.
It's why they are increasingly appealing to mainstream consumers. Their repeat rates are significantly greater than any other plant-based product and much closer to some of the top dairy products. So, we believe OWYN has already crossed over and has broken through to mainstream consumers who are looking for a plant-based option to put into their rotation. Now, with that being said, OWYN has an incredibly impressive R&D team. So do we. And we look forward to combining those teams and continuing to work on how we can continue to even further enhance the taste delivery and get closer and closer to the dairy-based mainstream option.
Okay. And then Shaun, in terms of the supply chain on the input cost side, dairy and soy inputs can be volatile enough. And now it's a different supply chain for plant-based ingredients, pea protein, organic pumpkin seed. Can you speak to how niche these ingredients are? How much visibility do you have into procurement? How diverse is the supplier base? And I guess with that, I mean, to what extent does OWYN sort of amplify or dilute the volatility for sourcing?
Good question, John, for a late in the day and on Monday. We spent a lot of time in diligence looking at the ingredient profile and kind of seeing where there might be opportunities for us, number one, from a synergy standpoint, but also from a, I'll say, supply standpoint. I think as you look at all the pieces there, the biggest one is probably the pea protein. We look at where the pieces are that that comes from. I think we spent a fair amount of time with their supply chain to understand the sources of that and the suppliers for that and whether that was going to be an opportunity for us to continue to ensure that we had that capacity available overall.
There's a lot of North American crop that's going to come online in the next—I don't know—what type of right time frame is. I think we're going to be okay on the protein in terms of the diversification. I don't think it's a little early to conclude on that at this point in time. I think we still have—it's still pretty small, I think, for us overall. And I think when we look at where we are right now within our portfolio, we've got it fairly well managed, and we don't really feel it's a huge risk from their standpoint. But it's something we'll keep watching. Does that answer the question?
Thanks, Shaun. Thanks, Geoff.
Thank you.
Thank you. And our last question will come from the line of Jon Andersen with William Blair. Please proceed.
Hey, thanks, everybody. Congratulations, Geoff and John. Hi.
My question is a little bit bigger picture. So, if we think about the brand, I think you mentioned kind of an aspiration to double the brand over kind of a 3-4-year time frame. And then the three kind of levers that you discussed: plant-based adoption, more mainstream users' kind of moving into the category, and retailers leaning into it as a result, and then perhaps new forms. I think you mentioned bars, maybe other forms. You've had great success with Quest, obviously expanding into new forms. Can you talk a little bit about how the path, the roadmap, may evolve over the next several years along those three dimensions? And if you are successful doubling the brand, how much would be from kind of the core business today versus some of the extensions or new forms in the future? Thanks.
Yeah, it's the three I call it the concentric circles of growth. There is continued runway in just becoming the leader in the plant-based segment. Then as the brand continues to penetrate mainstream consumers, and that'll be fueled by distribution gains and marketing, we see that as the next wave of growth. For our modeling, we didn't put too much weight on the expansion into new forms such as bars or chips or whatever. That did not underpin our financial modeling, our valuation. So, if that helps you think about the reference to doubling the business, it does not require us to, for example, launch a bar, plant-based bar. I'll stay high level with you. The household penetration is extremely low. And their velocities are very impressive, not just for plant-based but for any shake.
The repeat numbers are closer to dairy-based than plant-based. I don't know if that helps you think about it. This does not require Herculean innovation on our part to double the business. This is a brand that had triple-digit growth, and we continue to see that more out of the core. Shaun, anything you'd add to that.
Yeah, I think going back to the question, Grayson, I think when we looked at the opportunities for growth there beyond, as Geoff said, was in the model. I think our model has always been to invest in consumer communication. That was probably a little lower for Quest, and it's a little lower for OWYN than we actually would like it to be. So, I think there's an opportunity to increase consumer communication, which should increase household penetration. And the second thing is just distribution. I think we have a pretty good track record of driving distribution growth at key retailers, which I think we'll continue to look at from an opportunity standpoint. So I think all those things are going to help grow. None of that stuff is built into the plan.
These are just more things that we think are opportunities and levers we can pull to help continue to growth of the business.
That's very helpful. Both of my 19-year-old sons are big users of the OWYN brand. Good luck going forward with it.
Excellent.
Excellent. Thank you. Thank them.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.
All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We'll be available for any follow-up questions you may have. Thanks so much and have a great night.
Thank you.
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Enjoy the rest of your day.