% adjustment. The reason for that is that we can see from the market a signal of the trajectory in line with our expectations, especially the growth in high-value syringes, the growing cartridges, but most importantly, the penetrations that are contribution to cartridges, and this fact is mentioned that the slowdown in vials is just temporary and vial market is a big market, but we estimate around about billions pieces consumed a year. We see all the trend and secular trends sustaining. We expect to convert the part of the vial market to sterile, so in a nutshell, we see all the trajectory to our twenty twenty-seven changed compared to our presentation, so the top priority for us is being very focused on the executions of the projects we are currently engaging.
And keep on delivering during organic growth, especially through the shift into a high value. The priorities are about obviously executing the Latina project that is right on track compared to our estimation. Priority to do the same for us and actively improve our engineering business to restart the growth also. But through the portfolio product we have, thanks to the market, we can see. Thanks to the leadership position we have, we believe we are ideally positioned to leverage the growth in the coming years, especially in HVS products. It's too early to predict and we are keeping, so basically, this is the end of it.
Yeah. Great. We'll do a little bit of fireside chat, Q&A. If you've got any questions at any point, feel free to raise your hand, and we'll scooch you in. But maybe just to kick things off, Marco, you know, some of the issues you talked through in first quarter, second quarter, maybe we'll start on the destocking front. Not specific to Stevanato, others in the industry have seen it, too. You know, you really emphasized that a lot of the destocking is in vials. I know it's a difficult question, but any sense of how much inventory is left in the channel? Or maybe how much longer there is until it's fully worked through?
It's not easy to give you one single answer because it depends on single customer. Overall, we don't see a recovery already in 2024. We are modeling the guidance, considering that the level of Q3 and Q4 compared with the first two quarters. We can see some now good discussion restarting with the customers with different speed. For example, we already can see some recovery in Latin America or Asia Pacific, but they are not big market for us. About Europe and North America, it's signal for 2025, the customer has started discussing the forecast. We reiterate the fact that we expect some order growth at the end of this year with the end of 2025 compared to 2024. There's still uncertainty in our view about the speed of the recovery during 2024.
So it's a little bit early to share guidance about vials. But medium term, I already mentioned, we see... To go back to normal situation, we see this as a temporary effect, but more specifically, in the medium term, we see the vial market growing low to mid-single digit, thanks to the conversion to sterile, we see the sterile vial market grow.
Okay. You know, you talked about some of the differences in customers, the LATAM, you called out on the 2Q call as well. Sounds like that's continuing, but not hasn't really expanded to other customer groups yet, right?
Again, we see some good signal also for European, North American customer.
Yeah.
Some opportunities also in biologics, to accelerate some distribution drag, but not yet the normal situation we experienced before. There are still inventories around adjusting.
And in terms of other factors impacting inventory levels, you know, there was a lot of discussion about lead times, supply chain. No issues on your front on that, right? In terms of vials or BDS in general?
No, no issue. I mean, we expect the lead time will be shorter than before. So at that time, there was shortage of vials, so the customer was ordering much in advance.
Yeah.
Our customers know that there is availability, there is capacity available, so we don't expect that they will order in advance.
Okay. And then the other issue that you discussed, particularly in 2Q was on the engineering segment. You know, you called out specifically some very custom projects in Denmark, in May and June. Can you walk us through sort of how that's run? It seems like it's a new project, it's a new line, something a little bit more sophisticated, and some of the technical issues you ran into there.
So the combination of different reasons we have. First of all, we doubled the size of the division from 20 percent internal revenue, but also internal number of people. We collected a lot of orders, especially with high level of customization in Denmark for assembly and packaging line, but also high speed inspection lines. This growing complexity and difficulties in the supply chain due to the pandemic has caused a sort of bottleneck now that it is time to deliver the machines and testing the people. We reacted, adding more capabilities, more technicians. This is what is in the profitability. So we are taking action. We took action, obviously, reinforcing not only the management team, but also taking decisions about the organization and also taking some action on the investment. We believe it is fully on our hands how to take action.
The supply chain has been normalized. We are delivering, completing already some projects, but we expect it will take about three quarters in order to fully recover the situation, the delivery to restart. Because we can see strong demand in our systems. We have good customer, good technology. We are experiencing this delay, but the market and the customers are still there. Last thing, obviously, this is a little bit impairing our ability to keep on collecting contract with the same speed, and this is why we had to reduce the guidance for 2023, because we are very focused on customer satisfaction. First, to deliver, execute, and in the meantime, restart the acceleration. This is a big impact on the guidance.
Okay. On the three quarters to resolve, it sounds like you've got good visibility there, good line of sight. Once that's resolved, you know, expectation is that future projects won't have any issues. I mean, obviously, you never know, but especially for this project, because it's a multi-line project, once you get the kinks worked out.
It's correct. It's the first solution, obviously, is more difficult than-
Yeah
Customized project. We, for very good point, we realized we develop, not develop the technology for visual inspection. Those machines are the first installation for that. Same, we have a very highly customized projects for certain packages, but again, depending the order, still upcoming in the next software we have executed.
What about the margin impact from both the, you know, the solutions you're implementing in Denmark and just sort of the lower utilization, the lower revenues from engineering? How should we think about margins from that segment?
We expect a recovery, obviously, with the second quarter. We expect for the full year a lower gross margin. Our goal is to get back to normal.
Okay. I want to talk a little bit about High Value Solutions and the shift mix you highlighted in the presentation. You know, Russia seems to be going very well. You've got a little bit of noise in the system because you've got the vial destocking, so that's impacting some of the ratios. But overall, any particular area you want to call out where you're seeing more HVS pickup adoption?
We are very happy with the growth syringes, flexible solutions, which is performed by Nexa. Which do two chamber syringes, two chamber. Pretty happy with syringes, growing rapidly, and we can see also strong demand. This is good because we decided to invest in increasing capacity in syringes packing. Keeping investing, we are keeping on improving the capacity we have also for the future. We are investing. A lot of committed orders and contracts. We are growing also in cartridges. More importantly, lead time is expected to return rapidly to stable configuration. We talked about the vials at the time. But again, expected to be over some point in 2025, and so also, the combination of the three should be positive for us, and we see strong trajectory.
What about the margin contribution, as you go from standard to HVS? How meaningful of a margin step up is that?
It's important because when we talk about high value products, the gross profit margin is between 4% to 7%. While on other solutions, percent. So the more we shift to high value products, the better it is for us. We experienced this from 2023, where we have been able to expand over 700 basis points. This is obviously including the temporary headwinds we mentioned before with the underutilization of assets and the product mix shift, which is particularly speaking. The trajectory for the future is expected to be changed because we executing the margins respectively. We start good.
I mean, on the topic of Latina and Fishers, you in the presentation provide a lot of color on the CapEx over the last couple of years, the capacity expansion that's coming online. You know, you've had an elevated level of CapEx since the IPO. That was a lot of the rationale for doing the IPO. But a lot of that capacity is now coming online, and you're starting to generate revenues. You know, you talked about CapEx over time returning to more of that around 10%, high single-digit, low double-digit levels. How is that going to ramp down over time, and how do you feel about the capacity you just brought online with Latina and Fishers?
Initially, we reached the peak of our CapEx. That's our percentage of revenue last year. Invested about four hundred. This year, our guidance is EUR 300 million. Directionally, you are right to expect to 2027, 10% CapEx. And it is based on historical data, obviously, we expect the level of CapEx with about 3% maintenance CapEx and 7% of CapEx, we'll be able to keep on growing low double digit. So this is based on our experience. In about 2019 to 2021, we invested about 14% of top line CapEx. We have been able to grow significantly. This is what we are doing. In the meantime, it's a little bit early to tell you about. Besides, we are executing projects. We know very well the spending for the population.
At the same time, you know, we are living in a dynamic environment where the market is changing, need change, and we are very good also to the flexibility to do well then.
Okay. One of the things you mentioned on the TQ call as well was the delay in investment in China. There are some moving pieces there in terms of being able to meet some of that customer demand through other facilities. You know, are you still committing to making that investment to Baltimore South, or is that you're going to reevaluate that as it goes forward?
We don't have any plan. We will be deciding next year, depending on whether is the market-