Good day, and welcome to the Trinity Biotech second quarter financial results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw from the queue, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Diaz from Lytham Partners. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Kate, and thanks to all of you for joining us today to review the financial results of Trinity Biotech for the second quarter of 2022, which ended June 30, 2022. Joining us on today's call are Aris Kekedjian, Chief Executive Officer, and John Gillard, Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of today's prepared remarks, we will open the call for a question and answer session. Before we begin, I must inform you that statements made in this conference call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements.
These risks include, but are not limited to, those set forth in the risk factors and statements in the company's annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Trinity Biotech undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after today or the occurrence of unanticipated events. With that said, I will now turn the call over to CEO Aris Kekedjian for opening remarks. He'll be followed by CFO John Gillard for a review of the financial results. Mr. Kekedjian will then provide additional background with regards to the business, after which we will open the call for your questions. Aris, the floor is yours.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to be here today as the new Chairman and CEO of Trinity Biotech. As many of you know, I've been involved with the Trinity team since May, when I joined the board of the company. During that time, I was closely working with John and the team to develop and refine a new business plan and was drawn to the upside potential of the platform as a proactive healthcare environment continues to evolve as a mega-theme. From a macro perspective, Trinity's experience in developing and marketing world-class point of care rapid tests to WHO standards and its highly regarded 50-state certified reference lab in the United States are critical assets that can be effectively positioned to take advantage of this theme.
I think partnerships, channel relationships, and industry consolidation will play a big part in servicing the digital and decentralization healthcare trend. Another key theme that I was considering was the fact that pharmaceutical industry is very focused on the autoimmune space, spending millions on therapeutics and customer education. Testing is the key to the evolution of this complex space. This is a ripe area of opportunity for us to leverage through partnerships as well. Diabetes is a fast-growing problem in developing markets where we have deep relationships and distribution networks. Combined with the right product strategy, there's room to grow significantly. In this context, Trinity's following attributes appeal to me. First, I was impressed with the recent leadership hires that had joined the company.
They are experienced healthcare executives in many cases, or executives from other large multinational companies who are looking to apply their skills in an entrepreneurial capacity. In addition, one of the things I did realize was that the Trinity workforce is really highly capable and eager to align itself to a clear mission. The second attribute that appealed to me was the fact that I was attracted to the point of care lab and autoimmune platform possibilities. I think I also think at the same time, there's untapped potential with our Fitzgerald life science business. I've recently become more clear in my thinking about the profitability potential of the hemoglobin business as well. The third attribute that appealed to me was the fact that I personally, I like working with businesses that have global scale and distribution capabilities.
It fits my profile well, and I think Trinity has the ability to take advantage of that because I think globalization offers opportunities to scale growth and profitability. Fourth, my assessment continues to be that Trinity Biotech is significantly undervalued and trades well below its intrinsic value of the sum of its parts. Finally, the Nasdaq listing provides a platform for industry consolidation and a path for ecosystem partners to gain access to that liquidity. It is also a strong tool to attract talent, especially at current valuation levels. In essence, Trinity is a 30-year-old business with a serious brand, has the ability to operate effectively in a regulated industry, is small enough to be nimble, and has the public vehicle to enable partnerships, industry consolidation, value creation for our shareholders, and wealth creation for the Trinity Biotech team.
My experience in working closely with the portfolio of GE HealthCare businesses and other regulated platforms opened my eyes to the fact that in this industry, operational and regulatory excellence is a competitive advantage that comes with long-term superior returns. Just a few thoughts about my priorities for the next 3-6 months. I think they're quite straightforward, to be honest. First, the focus is to establish a clear vision and strategy that aims at scaling our core businesses. Namely, I wanna position our point-of-care platform and lab services capability to enable the decentralized testing disruption that is being led by digital health, other payer sponsored programs, and new market entrants. Scaling our autoimmune platform through partnerships and product development are also a priority. Maximizing profitability in our hemoglobins business is key.
I also would like to leverage our Fitzgerald brand and figure out how to maximize it and its capabilities, both in terms of its efficient sales process and its distribution capabilities and its breadth of offerings to find further growth capabilities. The second priority is to build a performance culture and drive ownership and accountability. This starts at the top with a focus on operating rigor, clear execution goals, and shareholder alignment. Our ESOP program will be at the core of this transformation and will be modeled after my compensation plan. Shareholder value creation, and the Trinity team's wealth creation are perfectly aligned. Third, a renewed focus on inorganic growth through partnerships and M&A. M&A will be a priority. This is how we scale. We have a public currency, we intend on using it in an intelligent fashion.
Finally, I am pledging a renewed commitment to shareholder communication and to rebuilding credibility with The Street. My intent is to attract institutional investors who get the vision and believe in this team. In exchange, we need to have a clear strategy and deliver on our results. Now I'll turn it over to John to give you some perspective on the financials for the quarter.
Thank you, Aris. Good morning, everyone. Now I will take you through the results for Q2 2022. Let me begin by warmly welcoming our new CEO and chairman, Aris. Since Aris joined the board back in May of this year, I've had the pleasure of spending a lot of time with him as we look at the opportunities available to the company and indeed some of the challenges we continue to work through. I very much look forward to partnering with Aris and the rest of the team in continuing to drive Trinity Biotech's modernization and transformation to a more dynamic, higher growth, and efficient global organization. Before I begin discussing our Q2 2022 results, I will point out that we have changed certain presentations in our financial statements this quarter.
In previous earnings announcements, we have disclosed one-off accounting charges such as impairment losses in a separate line below profit or loss after tax. Similarly, in the past, we have split our financial income and expenses between those items that are cash and non-cash, the latter being disclosed below profit or loss after tax. This presentation reflected how management evaluated the performance of the business, although it did not conform to International Financial Reporting Standards. Beginning this quarter, one-off accounting charges will be reported within profit and loss in accordance with IFRS. We will no longer disclose non-cash financial income and expense separately, and we will show a full cash flow statement rather than abbreviated version. Moving on to our results for the quarter, starting with revenues. Total revenues for the quarter were $18.5 million, compared to $25.8 million in Q2 2021.
As Joe pointed out, and has been our typical approach, our CEO, Aris, will discuss revenues in further detail on the call. As such, I will now move on to discuss other aspects of the income statement. Gross margin for the quarter was 35.3%, compared to 42.7% achieved in quarter 2 2021. Our gross margin remains susceptible to product mix changes, geographic spread, currency fluctuations, and product level variation. As was the case in Q1 this year, the reduction in gross margin this quarter was mainly due to the very strong sales and margins recorded in the comparative period within our COVID-19 related portfolio of products.
In the years since then, demand for our PCR viral transport media has fallen as the level of PCR testing for COVID has declined in North America, and the availability of greater supply from other manufacturers has also hampered demand. Moving on to R&D expenditure, which was $1 million in the quarter, down almost $100,000 compared to Q2 2021. We continue to focus on operating efficiency and cost control and have continued to reduce headcount as we pursue greater automation and simplification of processes. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses in the quarter were $6.5 million, down over $100,000 compared to Q2 2021. Here we are benefiting from the stronger U.S. dollar against the euro, which is reducing our substantial euro-denominated SG&A expenses. This is a trend we expect you will continue to see in the second half of the year.
Offsetting this has been an increase in transaction-related management bonuses and increased travel costs as our sales teams have been focusing on meeting our customers and distributors now that most COVID-related travel restrictions have been lifted. We have recorded an impairment charge of just over $500,000 this quarter, compared to a charge of $6.1 million in the corresponding quarter in 2021. Under IFRS, a company is required to carry out periodic impairment reviews in order to determine the appropriate carrying value of its net assets. This period's review has resulted in a non-cash impairment charge of $0.5 million being recognized. A number of factors impacted this calculation, including the company's share price on June 30, 2022, which was lower than the share price at the time of the prior impairment review being December 31, 2021.
Cash flow projections for each business unit and net asset values across each of these companies, individual business units. The above factors have resulted in an operating loss for Q2 2022 of $1.4 million, compared to an operating profit of $200,000 reported in Q2 2021. The main drivers of this reduction in operating profit are the reduction in revenue and margin contribution from our COVID-related portfolio of products, along with $0 Paycheck Protection Program income being recorded in Q2 2022, compared to $2.9 million of Paycheck Protection Program income being recognized in Q2 2021. This was partly offset by a lower impairment charge this quarter. Moving on to net financial expenses of $8.3 million recorded in Q2 2022, which compares to $0.3 million for Q2 2021.
This increase of $8 million is mainly due to non-recurring expenses of approximately $5.6 million associated with the early partial repayment of the Perceptive term loan. As you may know, we repaid approximately 42% of the term loan principal during the quarter. As a consequence, we incurred a penalty for earlier payment of approximately $3.5 million. Secondly, under IFRS accounting rules, we had to accelerate the recognition of the accretion interest expense, and this resulted in an additional non-cash expense of $2.1 million this quarter. I will talk further about this earlier repayment of the loan later on the call. The remainder of the increase in net financial expense is mainly due to higher interest rates applying to our borrowings post refinancing.
We replaced exchangeable notes with a coupon rate of 4%, with a senior secured term loan with an interest rate of approximately 13%, albeit the net amount now borrowed is substantially lower. As a result, interest payable increased by $0.9 million compared to Q2 2021. Lastly, we recorded a fair value adjustment on derivative balances related to the term loan, which this quarter was an expense of $400,000. Loss after tax was $9.7 million in Q2 2021, compared to a loss of $0.8 million in Q2 2021. As in prior quarters, and as set out in our press release, we quote earnings per ADS effectively our equivalent of EPS.
Loss per ADS has increased from $0.037 in Q2 2021 to a loss per ADS of $0.286 in Q2 2022. I will now move on to address some of the main balance sheet movements we have seen since quarter one, 2022. I'm pleased to be able to report that Trinity Biotech has a significantly stronger balance sheet this quarter, with total liabilities lower by $21 million compared to the end of March 2022, and lower by $28 million compared to last fiscal year end. The most significant balance sheet movements during quarter two, 2022 are the $45.2 million investment from the MiCo Group and the partial repayment of the term loan. The MiCo investment has resulted in $25.2 million of additional equity capital and a new seven-year convertible loan of $20 million.
This $2 million convertible note is accounted for as a compound financial instrument containing both an equity and liability element. The debt component is accounted for at amortized cost in accordance with IFRS nine. At June 30, 2022, the carrying value of the convertible note's debt component was $13.4 million. The equity component of the convertible note is $6.7 million and has been recorded in the equity section of the balance sheet. The carrying value of the term loan has reduced by $32.3 million this quarter, reflecting the early settlement of approximately $35.4 million, partly offset by accretion interest. The remaining balance sheet movements, which I would like to highlight, are intangible assets and inventory. Intangible assets increased by $1.4 million.
This is made up by additions of $1.6 million, which mainly comprises capitalized R&D expenditure, and this was partly offset by amortization. Inventories have decreased by $0.5 million since the end of Q1 2022. This decrease is in the normal range of fluctuation for inventory levels, and that $500,000 decrease this quarter brings the inventory balance back to a level we reported at the end of December 2021. Finally, I will discuss our cash flow for the quarter. Our cash balance increased by $400,000 to $10.5 million in Q2 2022. The aforementioned investment of $45.2 million from the MiCo Group was received during the quarter, was primarily used to fund a repayment of the term loan of $34.5 million and a related penalty for early repayment of $3.5 million.
Cash from operations was an outflow of $1.9 million. We had capital expenditure cash outflows of $1.8 million and payments for property leases of $0.7 million. Insurance payments for the quarter were $2 million. As you may have seen in our earnings announcement, we have made a cash saving to date of approximately $2.3 million from repaying parts of the term loan early. While we're speaking about the term loan, I would also like to bring to your attention the fact that the minimum liquidity covenant for the Perceptive loan has been amended until May 2023, so that the unrestricted cash balance that we are required to maintain is now $2 million, down from $5 million previously. I will now hand it back to Aris, who will bring you through the revenue and key business highlights.
Thank you, John. Now I would like to discuss a few revenue highlights for the quarter and priorities for the rest of the year. Total revenues for Q2 2022 were $18.5 million. Excluding our COVID-focused PCR viral transport media products, Q2 2022 revenues of $18 million were broadly flat compared to Q2 2021, and were up 7% compared to Q1 2022. A strong year-over-year increase in our diabetes A1C product line revenues of over 25% offset a decline in legacy infectious disease product demand in Asia due to continuing COVID-19 lockdowns. Preliminary estimates for Q3 are for expected revenues of between $19 million to $20 million, driven by an approximate double-digit year-over-year increase in both our hemoglobins and Fitzgerald life science businesses.
Fitzgerald's revenue momentum into the second half of 2022 continues with a 25% quarter-over-quarter growth as the strategy of focusing on high-value bulk sales is gaining traction. Q3 global health HIV orders for Africa, which are often difficult to predict, increased compared to Q2 2022, and we expect our HIV point-of-care revenue to grow over 30% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Since World Health Organization approval in February of our TrinScreen HIV product, the relevant Kenyan Ministry of Health task force recommended TrinScreen as a first-line screening test for Kenya's new HIV testing algorithm. In addition, the pre-submission process has been started in several other African countries. For context, our target countries for TrinScreen HIV under active evaluation in 2023 have a combined estimated market size of 30 million tests annually.
We chose Kenya as the first country to submit TrinScreen for inclusion in the national HIV algorithm, given its large market size, estimated at 5-6 million tests a year, and its prestigious leadership role as an innovator in HIV management in Africa. The use of the new HIV algorithm had been delayed due to the change of government in Kenya following the election in August and a legal objection by competitors regarding the overall HIV algorithm evaluation process. The new government is now in place, and we understand they are motivated to scale up the HIV rapid testing program to pre-COVID-19 levels. We understand the implementation of the new testing algorithm will begin before the end of the year, and expect the first orders to arrive shortly. I would also like to take this moment to welcome Tom Lindsay to our board of directors.
His experience and networks in Africa will be a significant benefit during this product rollout. In May 2022, the company announced the closing of a $45.2 million investment from MiCo Ltd. The investment consists of an equity investment of $25.2 million acquired for $2.25 per ADS, and a seven-year unsecured junior convertible note of $20 million with an interest rate of 1.5% and mandatory conversion price of $3.24. As part of its ongoing balance sheet restructuring, the company made an early repayment of the $35 million of its term loan with Perceptive Advisors in May. The partial repayment will save the company cash interest expense of $5 million annually. Further refinancing may be optimized in conjunction with the execution of one or more potential strategic transaction opportunities we are contemplating.
Now focusing on our hemoglobin business, our largest platform. We have recently completed a comprehensive three-year execution plan for the business that incorporates new targeted product launches and intelligent actions to maximize profitability. In late August, the company submitted its 510(k) submission to the FDA seeking U.S. regulatory approval of its Premier Resolution hemoglobin variant instrument. Subject to FDA approval, commercial sales are expected to begin by Q2 2023. The team is also finalizing the development of a lower-cost, mid-throughput A1C instrument that leverages the core consumables technology from our existing Premier 9210 instrument. This new instrument is targeted at developing markets where rates of diabetes growth are substantial, but the entry price of instrumentation is a barrier.
We are also developing a commercial strategy that combines equipment financing with our core product offerings, ensuring a favorable cost entry point for our customers while optimizing the Trinity balance sheet. Supply chain, product design, optimization, and commercial actions are underway in this business to significantly optimize the margins of the platform. This includes insourcing key elements of our consumable column manufacturing and streamlining our product focus. My expectation is that these actions should deliver a double-digit profile for the business over the next three years at well over 50% gross margins. We see significant growth potential in our autoimmune business as well. Our focus is on the 2023 launch of a clinical laboratory reader and processor range to complement our existing IFA consumables products.
We are also in the platform evaluation stage for the adoption and development of a chemiluminescence system aimed at our current ELISA product range. I'm quite focused on our proprietary Sjögren's dry eye testing capabilities within our autoimmune portfolio, and believe we can scale this product line through pharmaceutical partnerships and applications in adjacent markets such as dentistry. In an effort to address demand growth for our cryo slides business, we are expanding manufacturing capacity at our Jamestown facility, while also offsetting excess production capacity from the expected runoff in demand from our legacy infectious disease products.
We have launched a strategic review of expansion opportunities in the point of care space and in the sponsored decentralized consumer testing programs in order to take advantage of the evolving patient expectations, rapid technology convergence, focus of ambitious and well-funded tech and CPG players, and payer focus on controlling healthcare costs through proactive digital healthcare. We are actively exploring acquisition and partnership strategies in these areas aimed at accessing channel distribution, product innovation, and user experience expertise. At the same time, we intend to make a substantial investment toward this effort over the next 18 months in our Buffalo, New York lab, which is well-positioned to serve the decentralized testing market because unlike many other U.S. labs, it is certified to process samples from all 50 states.
In addition, we are positioning our point of care product business and Irish manufacturing operation to apply its operational capacity, product development focus, and regulatory know-how as an ecosystem enabler of the disruption in this space being driven by market forces. There may be an opportunity here to leverage our MiCo BioMed relationships in relation to their handheld enzymatic product line. I like to use the analogy that we are aiming to be the Shopify of the decentralized testing space. The combination of our world-class lab operation and decentralized testing product development history is unique in the industry. Platform optimization actions to date have resulted in a significantly more efficient workforce.
Our average headcount in the six months ended June 30, 2022 was approximately 410 compared to over 500 in the six months ended June 30, 2021, and we expect total headcount to be under 400 by the end of 2022. Operational efficiencies will continue to be a focus across the board as we aim to make our processes leaner, more agile, and highly automated. We are undertaking a portfolio-wide capital and talent allocation review, emphasizing maximization of return on capital, and to ensure that our incentive systems are being enhanced to drive significant target improvements in gross margin, earnings, cash contribution, as well as revenue growth. The centerpiece of our incentive system will be an ESOP program modeled after my own equity compensation, which results in substantial financial incentives when shareholders benefit the most.
Over the past 18 months, the company began a program of leadership upgrades, beginning with our CFO, John Gillard, and subsequently attracted experienced leaders in operations and HR. Most recently, over the last couple of quarters, this focus on talent has expanded to include new leadership in supply chain, regulatory compliance, business intelligence, and technology. I urge you to visit our website to see their bios. While we have brought in fresh talent to lead key sales initiatives, this area continues to be a direct focus of mine. Over the coming weeks and months, my intention is to further outline Trinity Biotech's strategic focus for 2023 and beyond. One such opportunity will be the upcoming Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference on Thursday, December 1st, where Trinity Biotech is scheduled to present its strategy. That concludes our commentary regarding the quarter. We are now available to take your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone screen. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing a key. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. The first question is from Jim Sidoti of Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question. First one, with regards to the sales of the VTM, the COVID-related products. You said down about $7 million in the quarter. Does that mean those sales are basically gone at this point? Do you expect them to come back?
Well, let me give you some context, and I'll have John give you maybe some of the detailed trend lines on this. You know, look, COVID's a little hard to predict right now in terms of how we're facing the winter season. Obviously, there's a fair bit of concern, you know, in the U.S., and there's this whole triple threat with RSV and flu. Last year, you know, we saw a tick up. Will we see that again? I don't know. Frankly, we're not predicting it. It's down substantially. We're not counting on VTM to be a driver of our strategy going forward. John, I don't know if you wanna add anything to that.
Yeah, Jim, we're down about $7 million, as you said, to about $400,000 in quarter two. Look, not to labor the point, it continues to be very fluid situation with COVID. We have seen, you know, the continued demise of PCR testing in North America. You know, hard to predict. At this stage, it doesn't seem like it's gonna be a significant feature for quarter four.
For the third quarter, I believe sales a year ago for the VTM was around $3 million. It sounds like you expect sales to be up about a half a million from a year ago, if you exclude that. Does that sound about right?
Just give that to me again, Jim. Sorry.
For the September quarter in 2021, I believe the sales were about $3 million. If you come in at the midpoint of your guidance for 2022, I think you're implying about 3% top line growth, you know, excluding the COVID. Does that sound about right?
I think we'd have about between $300,000-$400,000 of COVID sales in Q3. Look, we're, it's preliminary guidance, but I think it's probably gonna land somewhere in and around what we have in Q2.
Okay.
I think, John, the question was our guidance at $19.5 million ex-COVID, what's the year-over-year for third quarter? Is that your question?
Yeah.
COVID last year was about $3 million in quarter three, and this year we expect it'll be between $300,000 and $400,000.
Okay. If you come in at $19.5 million, you're up maybe $200,000 from 2021 on a year-over-year basis.
Yeah. Understand what you're saying. Yeah, understand what you're saying.
Okay. All right. Well, how should we think about interest expense for the third quarter and going forward? I know there was, you know, this quarter was unusually high because of the accelerated paydown.
Interest on the Perceptive debt is about 14% now. There's about $45 million on that. That'll be our expected cash interest cost. The accretion interest is non-cash and is an IFRS-driven charge.
Okay. How should we think of the share count for the third quarter and going forward?
In terms of EPS calcs? It will increase somewhat more, Jim, because obviously the MiCo share, the shares that were issued to MiCo, will have been outstanding for longer.
Right. You know, $38 million, does that sound about right?
In around that, Jim. Yeah.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Jim, just some context on the revenue. Effectively, you look at kind of where we are quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. We're kind of you know, all of the ins and outs of COVID, both the VTM upside and the effects on hemoglobin, you know, because of all the COVID testing. All that's kind of washing out and we're basically flattening out on revenue, or somewhere around $19-$20 million, in that range. The idea is to build from there. That's kind of where we're playing out right now. That's kind of where John and I are building our base case kind of from this kind of flattening out point in terms of the next three-year plan.
Right. Basically you're starting out with a $75-$80 million business, and then you expect to grow it from this point based-
Yeah.
on increased sales for the HIV test and the autoimmune and diabetes test.
Yeah. Some of the initiatives we that I highlighted, I think, have real growth potential in 2023 and 2024. I think at the end of the day, we feel like we're at the run rate now from where do we wanna build a plan.
What level do you think you need to achieve of revenue to obtain profitability on the bottom line?
We're really attacking it two ways, Jim. Right? Obviously we wanna grow revenue, but we're very, very focused on growing gross margin as well, and gross margin contribution. Okay? I think we've flagged previously the average selling price of the TrinScreen HIV test will be lower than the Uni-Gold test. Okay? We expect that would have a margin percentage erosion, but will add to gross margin contribution. Okay? We're very focused on managing our SG&A costs and overall, our cost basis. I wouldn't want to give guidance in terms of, you know, at what level we'll reach overall profitability. It will depend on progress around not just the revenue number, but also as we look to optimize our gross margin.
I think as Aris had spoke about, for example, if we take our hemoglobin business, we're looking to insource there a significant aspect of our consumable production. You know, we think that could add somewhere around, you know, $1 million to our bottom line on an annual basis through that action. That we will not hit that for a full year for 2023, but I'd expect we'd hit that for full year 2024. You know, we'll be executing on that at the moment and I think it'll start paying dividends in early 2023. You know, there's a number of key initiatives that we're focused on to make the business much more efficient rather than just rely on revenue growth to get us to break even.
What we're really focused on is revenue growth and efficiency to get us to you know significant profitability.
I mean, look, I mentioned the three-year plan around hemoglobins. You know, I'm we are looking at a business that should have gross margins well in excess of 50% and, you know, operating profit margins pre-tax in the 20% maybe ± range, in a three-year timeframe. We're, you know, that'll be a healthy, profitable. That's our largest business. The areas right now that we're spending some time really vetting out is point of care. How do we position the lab and the product business in point of care to take advantage of high margin opportunities in developed markets as well as we currently have in, especially in the case of the product business in the developing markets.
That partnership strategy, and we feel very confident in terms of what opportunity we have at the lab level. That strategy is a very high margin strategy, both for our Irish-based lateral flow business as well as our lab business. I think that's gonna be one of the key drivers, but we're putting some work around that, and we're in discussion with a number of partners, and that'll determine that model for us shortly. Autoimmune, to be honest, has got tremendous growth potential. It's small right now. That's an area where we may be willing to, you know, in the short and medium term, significantly invest to take advantage.
The idea is between now and the Piper conference, we'll have this thing pretty much narrowed down, and we'll have a pretty good three-year view.
Okay. Then the last one for me, are you actively working on refinancing the remaining piece of that 14% debt?
Well, you know, look, the market is a little fluid right now. One of the things that John and I discussed when I got involved was refinancing the debt has penalties associated with it, okay? When you do all the math, in the short term, it's a fair bit of penalty for the amount of refinancing benefit you're getting. Now, what I have been thinking about with John here is we've got a number of potential transaction or partnership opportunities in front of us, and that we're probably better off going to both debt and equity investors around a transaction idea and do a refinancing once as opposed to doing it twice and paying a penalty.
Okay.
We're trying to be prudent. I mean, yeah, I don't. 14% money is stupid, right? I mean, that doesn't make sense to sit on. That's not my intent. I expect to refinance out of it. I just wanna make sure that, you know, John and I wanna make sure we're being clever about it.
Understood. All right. Thank you. Thank you for taking the questions.
Yeah. Just through the early repayment, Jim, we have taken, you know, a significant piece of that cash cost out. It's not as. While the rate is high, the amount borrowed is substantially less than we had previously, so that's taken some of the cost out.
Understood. All right. Thank you for taking the questions.
Thanks, Jim.
Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question is from Paul Nouri of Noble Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning.
Good morning.
What do you see as the size for the variant instrument, the size of the market for that?
I'll let John give you a little bit of a kind of a forecast or a perspective on those numbers and what they could potentially be. You know, look, the variant product is replacing a market leadership position we had historically, and expect to kind of hit the same rates once this product is rolled out. It's really a much better version of the Ultra product we had in the market, right, John? Where were we on the Ultra, roughly in the ballpark?
Yeah. Look, well over you know, 5-6 million revenue a year, right? In the U.S. predominantly, with very healthy margins, Paul, right? A recurring revenue model. You know, we could get higher to that, obviously, to the extent that we push this outside the U.S. While we have launched it under CE mark, you know, in a lot of countries, because it's a U.S. manufactured product, it needs 510(k) approval, it needs home country approval. Just also from a marketing and credibility perspective, right? One of Trinity's great strengths in its other areas is the fact that it has a large number of 510(k) approved products, right? That markets those products well outside the U.S., and the same should apply for the Premier Resolution.
Yeah, look, we'd hope to be getting $5 million-$6 million, if not more, a year out of that at a good margin. Really the growth is only, it is only dictated by, I suppose, how far we can expand that outside of the U.S., of which the 510(k) is a key pillar in that strategy.
Okay. Shifting to the screening market. In Africa, how much market share does the current leader have there approximately? I know it varies country by country, but, you know, are they, you know, predominant over 50%, or is it more of a scattered market than that?
Yeah. Look, I don't think we'd want to necessarily talk about someone else's market share. We're more interested in our own. Yeah, they have a predominant position within the market.
Well over kind of what you targeted, so yeah.
Yeah. You know, that gives us an opportunity, Paul, to pick up a meaningful piece of that market. You know, they have been the incumbents there for many years. You know, that gives an opportunity with our product, which we think has key benefits in terms of its performance, but also the time to test. It's a faster test to run, and that matters a lot where you're running an HIV testing clinic in terms of throughput. You know, we think that we can pick up a meaningful piece of that market, notwithstanding their position there.
Do you anticipate that legal objections might be an issue in each country? Or is this country unique in some way that they thought that they had a leg to stand on?
Look, again, not inclined to talk about cases that other parties are involved with and we're not involved with. I'd say this was not necessarily an issue that we had perceived would be a problem in terms of a broader rollout in Africa. You know, we don't foresee it as a major issue.
I'll give you my perspective on having done a fair bit of business in Africa. Look, just as a step back, we're talking in our screening market about $150 million a year roughly, okay, of revenue available in the market. Given the attributes of our tests, and they are substantial, and the desire for many countries to have an alternative on their algorithms, you know, it doesn't. We're not planning to kind of go get 50% of the market or anything like that, but it isn't inconceivable for us to have 20% of that market at all. I think that's doable. That'll give you some context of sizing around that for now.
The other thing I would say is, you know, whether it's a legal case, sometimes it's a political issue, Africa is lumpy, and it's gonna be lumpy. That's one of the main reasons why we're focusing our point-of-care test to scale beyond Africa into higher margin, more predictable markets, okay? At the same time, we brought Tom Lindsay on board, and Tom built Alere's business in Africa. He's got the networks.
Yeah.
He's got the gravitas. It's one of the main reasons we brought him in to enhance our transparency and overall intelligence around dealing in Africa and getting more, you know, predictability out of it. So all those are the best things we can do, but it's always gonna be lumpy out of Africa, and we just have to accept that.
Okay. I know this is kind of a tough question 'cause you know, there's no way that you can predict this kind of thing, but as you're looking for partners to you know, possibly merge with or whatever the strategic combination would be, are you leaning more towards younger companies who have more capital and could use, you know, the fact that Trinity has been in the market so long?
Is it the other way around, where you're looking for more mature companies who are maybe looking to you know, just bolt on some extra product lines or whatnot?
Look, I would say we're looking at a range, okay? We're looking at companies that might be similar to us and have what I would find an appealing product pipeline in the point-of-care space. That could be interesting to us. We are talking to companies that are plugged in to the new healthcare treatment ecosystem with telehealth and all the other digital providers being sponsored by payers and who are connected to these networks through user interfaces, APIs, abilities to do private label.
You know, very interesting IT capabilities among other things that are really important if you're gonna try to fulfill solutions in the point of care. Especially as you start getting into over-the-counter or B2B2C models and over-the-counter strategies. Those tend to be what I would call, yeah, younger companies, you know, more techy companies, potentially, but who get healthcare and who get the complexity of being plugged into healthcare. Then I think the third category would be, you know, traditional CPG companies and tech companies who see this as a real growth opportunity for them. What I like about those discussions is, you know, we don't have that kind of distribution reach. They do. They don't have the regulatory and operating excellence in this industry that you need to have that we do.
I think there's some very interesting dialogues going on. That, that's the range of conversations. John, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.
No, I think that's a fair summary. Like, Paul, really I guess what we're trying to do is, you know, in a post-COVID world, we have a capability for developing and manufacturing point of care tests that now we think we can direct towards a more over-the-counter, higher price point consumer market. Our laboratory also, we can redirect that capability to serve that market to support virtual care. It's really around us taking our existing capabilities and looking to scale them and point them at higher price point, higher margin opportunities than we have been maybe over the last while. Today
Hey, look, people, we've had inbounds from digital companies who've been wanting to spend a fair bit of money wanting to buy our lab business, you know? You know, the reality is we realize we actually have something interesting, and this allows us to lead in terms of the interconnectedness you need to have to this ecosystem. The margins are, I gotta tell you, a lot higher.
To the extent there's capabilities we need to bring in to do that, then partnerships or M&A are a way for us to do that, as well as, you know, building on our existing platform with, you know, product acquisition or, you know, synergy plays.
You know, look, you've got a fundamental aside from user preferences that have all evolved and companies like Apple who wanna get into healthcare and CVS, and everyone wants your blood results if they can get it. What's the most important trend is that payers have had enough, all right? Payers are driving digital health, and everybody knows that progressive proactive testing is critical to make this work. The ecosystem is looking for solutions. We're a piece of that solution, okay? What we're figuring out is how do we plug what we're good at with people who have other aspects of what this ecosystem needs to provide solutions. Because the payers, the insurance guy, they'll just. They're looking to put together programs to get ahead of the cost issue. We're just being smart about this.
We're not trying to be something we're not. Some things we'll buy. I'm very interested in buying user interface, user experience opportunities or partnering around that kinda thing, to plug in with our lab and product capabilities. I think that positions us very, very well. Look, stay tuned.
I appreciate all the insight on that. Just one technical finance question. Inventories, I think, for the company have historically been at a high level, and I think my understanding of it was that it was mostly related to Fitzgerald and them needing to have a lot of inventory on hand, a lot of, you know, different types of inventory on hand. Is that still the case? Is the current inventory level where you would expect it to remain approximately in coming quarters?
Paul , I think it's not just down to Fitzgerald Industries, right? You know, given the supply chain challenges that everyone, not just us, has had over the last 12-18 months, you know, we made a decision to increase our safety stock levels for many of our inventory items, especially in our home hemoglobin business. We had significant supply chain challenges. We were typically able to overcome them, but they can be quite a distraction, okay? You know, we need to be able to produce when our customers and ultimately the patients need our product. For that reason, we've made a decision to increase levels of safety stock. That's the main driver, I suppose, of that high level. I'd expect that to maintain around the same place.
Okay. Thank you.
Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Aris Kekedjian for closing remarks.
Well, look, thank you for attending my first earnings call. I thought your questions were very insightful, and I appreciate it. We will actually be back to you fairly soon to do our third quarter update. I promise you that we'll be on a more regular schedule going forward. Stay tuned. We look forward to talking to you in a few weeks' time. I think we have a link on our website to the Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference. That'll be live streamed, and we'll provide the presentation online. With that, thank you for the time, and enjoy the rest of the week.
Thanks, everybody.
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now.