All right, get the picture. Thanks a lot . All right, well, good afternoon. Hope lunch was good. Next on stage, we've got Tyson Foods with us, one of the world's largest protein companies with major operations here in the U.S. I'm very pleased to have with us on stage Curt Calaway, recently named CFO of Tyson Foods, as well as Brady Stewart, the company's Group President of Beef, Pork, and Chief Supply Chain Officer. So we're going to ask a couple of supply chain questions as well, if you don't mind.
Anyway, maybe first of all, thanks for joining us today and coming over to Boston. As we know, you have a lot of like different dynamics currently to deal with. So maybe, Curt, can you just give us overall thoughts, recent results, and, and how you're set up for the rest of the year? So just like a little bit of a...
Yeah.
... intro before we dig deep?
Thank you. Maybe start out with just a touch on Q3. Certainly very pleased with our Q3 results. That really demonstrated the focus on the multi-protein, multi-channel strategy. And specifically, we're in an environment where the benefits of our chicken prepared foods and pork business can offset the headwinds that we're experiencing in our beef business.
We've been very much focused on control the controllables, and that very much is focused in operational execution, but really across the entire business, as we've managed very diligently our cash flows, working capital, CapEx across the board, and ultimately enabled us to have a great result. We finished Q3 on a year-to-date basis with about $1.1 billion of free cash flow, as we've been very diligent, again, across all of the cash flow levers that we have. And we're excited about the momentum that that brings for us as we look not only to finish 2024, but leading into 2025.
Right. Good stuff. So, as you kind of look through the different segments, and one of the things I just wanted to follow up is, like, just what you're seeing in terms of, like, consumer behavior, just general consumer health.
Mm-hmm.
So how have you seen that also differentiated maybe between retail, food service, and within the different segments?
Yeah, thanks. You know, continue to see segments of consumers search for value, whether that's in retail, or in food service. As we look at certainly and see the same data that you probably look and analyze, you know, we see private label continuing to pick up a little bit of share. And within the food service arena, some shifting around of the channels in which the segments within a food service. So you may have some shift to QSR, and you'll have some dynamic shifting from a value standpoint.
As it relates to us, right, as I said at the beginning, the benefit of our strategy is being multi-protein, where we can play across all the different protein channels. We can play across the different food service and retail environments, and we can also participate in all the day parts, which gives us the optionality to work with our customers to really develop innovative products for the end consumers and meet them where they choose to buy our products, whatever level of spend that they choose to have.
Okay. So one of the other things, just like to kind of what usually happens, and obviously there's a lot of, like, promotional activity, trying to draw customers. What have you seen, like, with your key customers in terms of, like, the willingness to do promotional? What are they looking for? Is it predominantly within the chicken segment, I suspect, or is others or other things as well picking up?
I'm going to comment real quick just on prepared foods, and Brady may add a little bit more to chicken, beef, or pork. But as we think about prepared foods, certainly in the dynamic of each of the types of products that we offer, it's managing like we normally do, right? And managing for volume and margin, and working with our customers to be able to manage that trade spend across the board to maximize our value and the customer's value. But Brady, you got anything to add on chicken?
Yeah. Certainly, from a retail perspective, we have seen some promotional activity really strengthen in the chicken business. But beyond that, it's maybe a little outsized in terms of, so surprises would be some promotional activity on beef. Even though we have some high-priced beef and beef primals, we've seen retailers have promos in the beef space to really drive those consumers to them as a value play as well and really increase their total ring from a basket perspective once they get beef in the basket.
Okay. Maybe staying along the lines of beef, Brady, the big issue obviously is, like, just the supply of cattle and the shortages we're seeing. I mean, we haven't seen real data maybe yet as it points to, like, heifer retention. Any signs you are seeing, or how do you feel about, like, the challenges in the cattle supply for the next couple of quarters?
That's a great question, and certainly, we're setting the table for us to move into this part of the cycle where we would start to see some heifer retention, but we're looking at the same data that everyone else is as well, and so really a slow recovery to date. We're not seeing anything meaningful, but when I talk about setting the stage, I think it's important to understand a few different points, and first and foremost, better pasture conditions in the last couple of years that's helping provide at least an opportunity to retain some heifers, continue to focus on interest rates and potential some reprieve relative to those rates that goes into that economic decision-making of the rancher.
And then we have seen a retraction over the last 45-60 days on feeder calf prices from a futures implied price perspective. And so you put all those things together, and certainly provides a different suite of calculus for those decisions to be made. Here's what we know. Cow liquidation is basically ceased, and so we're not liquidating cows. It provides some stability, and after every cycle we've seen in the past, the next step is certainly to have heifer retention. That's what we continue to look for.
Okay. I mean, if we look at it, I mean, right now, it seems like a cycle that's even more in the negatives than maybe some ten years ago when the last time it was challenging. What's so different this time versus maybe back in the days, and what can you do to kind of prepare yourself for the next one up to come in ten years?
You bet. So I think first, first of all, when you look back a decade, different weather patterns in terms of getting reprieve relative to some of the drought conditions a decade ago certainly provided a quick recovery, if you will, back in the 2014-2015 cycle . And we didn't time that the same this time in this current cycle as well. And so really the slope of change that we saw over time and the quick rebound a lot slower relative to the rebuild this time around. But we're seeing great demand perspective. Grinds have been fantastic into demand as well, and so really optimistic that we'll hold the cutout in.
Okay. And then lastly, on beef, I mean, we've obviously seen a little bit of capacity reductions, right? First, the Saturday shifts go out, and then a little bit further reductions. Are you considering any plant closures?
We really like our asset base. It's well-invested asset base. We took care of those assets during the better times relative to the opposite side of the beef cycle as well, and continue to have opportunities for us to improve within our business relative to mix, relative to efficiencies, relative to making sure we understand where the customer's gonna be in terms of primal and mix, and really like our path forward with our current asset base.
Okay, got it. As we switch around the proteins and maybe looking a little more into the chicken business, which is quite the opposite story to beef right now, how do you—I mean, it's been very profitable already for a couple of quarters now. We've seen consistently how you are also revised your estimates and guidance up in the segment. As you think about your business in specific, right?
And you've talked about, like, operational issues you had in the past, but you're getting some of those resolved. So if you think about it, where you're at right now, how much is really just like the very good market fundamentals that has helped you boost the profitability up, versus how much comes from these efficiency gains that you have within your own facilities?
It's a really good balance right now, and obviously, we've seen benefit and tailwinds relative to lower feedstuffs in the form of corn and soybean meal. And we've seen some benefits relative to, the demand for chicken has been very, very strong as well. When you balance that against our operational improvements, we laid out a strategy, about a year and a half ago, that Wes Morris and the team has executed against in our poultry business that we're extremely proud of.
It starts with our live production, and so we've seen sizable improvements relative to our hatch rate. We commented on it, during our last earnings call, where we've seen 360 basis points of improvement, and we've seen improvements in our livability by more than 50 basis points. We're really proud of that. We believe it's sustainable because we've put the right processes in place, franchised those, and we've got the discipline to continue to execute those.
In our plants, we're operating better than we have in the past as well, so we've got good capacity utilization that lays right into our strategy, and our plants are operating really well. And then lastly, which is really important to note, is from a supply-demand perspective, we've got processes that are in place, that we'll continue to execute to make sure we understand where our customers are gonna be, where we meet them in terms of the different channels, and make sure that we have the appropriate supply, matched up with that demand and demand signals we see.
Okay. And then remind us, you shut down a couple of facilities over the last couple of quarters to, like, bring down just your nominal capacity. Where are you right now, and, like, what's your production rates and where do you wanna be in, like, the medium term?
Yeah, so from a capacity realization standpoint, those assets have all been shuttered, and a lot of that was a asset realization strategy, that number one is we just weren't going to continue to invest in some of these older assets we had, and so there's a play relative to capacity utilization across our network that we have already realized.
Mm-hmm.
I mentioned the operational improvements we have both in the live part of our business and our plant operations as well. There's still plenty of runway ahead of us, but the team's done a fantastic job of taking advantage of the strategy that was laid out and executing towards it in a sustainable manner.
Okay. I remember a few years back you hosted, like a kind of, a medium-term capital markets day outlook piece, and one of the things was, like, really the margin structure of the different businesses. If I remember right, chicken was around about, like, that 7%-9% range, so we're getting to the lower end of that. Is that a level that you think still is gonna hold throughout the cycle? Is that realistic, or do you see opportunity to actually drive that higher, given all the initiatives you've taken, on the plans to be more efficient?
Yeah, I think we. It's been a few years since we've updated that. But certainly as we look to focus on our operational excellence, not only you know, controlling what's in the plant, but also thinking across our entire network, our sales mix, the channels in which we sell, right? There's a lot of opportunity for us, but we're not at a stage currently to go through and re-update those.
Mm-hmm.
We're very focused on sequential improvement, and controlling the controllables, and getting our network fixed right, just as Brady started talking about. We're about a year and a half or so into that journey, and we think we've got opportunity from what's in our control to continue to make improvements.
Okay. And then, I mean, obviously, the fact of the vertical integration and the grain cost has come down, I mean, that's obviously been a tailwind, and you've said that, Brady. How much of that do you have flexibility to lock in, to take advantage of that? And have you done maybe some of, like, opportunistic changes to maybe your feed structure, just given that there is obviously ample supply of soybean meal right now because of all that crush that's come out? Is that something you're looking at, or you prefer, like, sticking to your standardized formula and just get the quality right with your customers?
Yeah, definitely, tailwinds relative to those feedstuffs as we look forward as well. So I would just say that from a U.S. crop perspective, we're dialed into the fact that basically the crop is done, just yet to be harvested. We'll continue to monitor any risk we would see out front and take a relatively conservative risk management strategy towards that. And on the backside of that, we do have strategic customers that are coming to us and asking us to really use a different model relative to pricing and incorporating grains as well. And we actively work with those strategic customers to come up with those right solutions for both us and the customer.
Okay, got it. All right, maybe going into one of the other ones that's improving, pork, another business, obviously, it's been very challenged over the last couple of years, but it's gotten some good momentum. It's still, I guess, more at the lower end of what you would like it to be from a profitability perspective. Actually, one of your peers seems to be a little bit ahead of that on, like, the recovery side. I mean, some of them are working with, like, more vertical integration, which you're not. So maybe just to understand a little bit, like, how you think about the pork business. Would you consider making any changes here, and what you can do to kind of continue to grow that business and to grow the margin here?
That's a great question, and I think it's important to note that we've made some network design changes recently with our Perry, Iowa plant closure. That was a very difficult decision for us, but ultimately closed at the end of June to really get our network right. And so it gives us better capacity utilization and efficiencies in our existing assets. We feel good about the way our assets are running today. We've seen sizable improvements over the last twelve months, just relative to efficiencies, relative to conversion rates as well.
Having said that, there's still a great opportunity that sits in front of us to improve, and there's an improvement plan for us to continue to improve those operations, make sure we're managing the mix appropriately as well. And then lastly, I think from an enterprise standpoint, we'll continue to prioritize capital that provides us the greatest amount of return within the business, from an enterprise strategy perspective. And, that's how we look at any of the decisions we would make relative to investing additional capital into vertical integration. But having said that, we've got great producer partners that continue to supply us, and it's on a multitude of different price discovery methods that includes cost of production and different, other formula basis as well.
What are you seeing, like, in terms of that trade? I mean, everybody usually talks about, like, beef versus chicken, but if we look at beef into pork, how much of consumer or if your customers are looking into making maybe a pork feature versus the beef feature to try to pronounce a little bit the sales here? Are there opportunities there, and how is, like, pork in general, I mean, obviously, as an export business as well. So maybe you can talk about a little bit about, like, the export dynamics of the pork business?
That's a great question, and I would just say from an export perspective, Mexico has been a fantastic trade partner for the U.S. and has held up the ham cutout significantly this year. South Korea continues to be a great customer for us as well on some of the other cuts, including the butts and the middle meats, and then Colombia has come on as an emerging customer as well. So from a trade perspective, in export, really good support from those trade partners. When we get back and step back into the confines of the U.S., I would just say this: The belly has really held the cutout together from a pork perspective over the last five years.
We didn't get near the run-up this summer in belly prices as we have in the past, but that was offset largely, in fact, of a really good and really strong demand pull on loin meats and, retail cuts from the pork perspective. So definitely have seen some trade down into pork, seen significant trade into chicken, and I would just say that, the value of ground beef relative to some of the primal beef as well, is really where we've seen the customers gravitate towards.
Yeah. Okay, good stuff. Switching over to prepared foods, which is like kind of where a lot of the other products end up anyway. So, it's been very stable. You've done a couple of investments into capacity, et cetera. Just update us a little bit on, like, the growth projects you had and, like, the strategy within prepared foods.
Yeah, thanks. So, certainly, start off with, I think it has been certainly a stable year, as we provided guidance, you know, and we're able to narrow that as we went through the year and really [audio distortion] with our expectations. Very pleased with the delivery of Prepared Foods results. Relative to our investments that we've made, one particular one to call out would be in Bowling Green, Kentucky. We've brought online a new bacon plant for us. Very important investment for us to make, and I'd say it's performing very well. It's helping us drive that category and our performance in that category, and enhance our profitability profile and opportunities as we move forward.
But I think about you know what we have from a prepared foods network. We've not only done that, but we've done capacity expansions and improvements within our facilities. So we've talked a lot about you know operational efficiency and controlling the controllables, and that extends through to our prepared foods business as well, as we're in the process of making those modifications and updates to streamline those. They're starting to generate some benefits for us, but we have opportunities to continue that operational excellence.
Okay. One of the things that was interesting to see over the last couple of quarters is that you actually managed to have volume growth in prepared foods, which kind of is an outlier versus what the broader industry has been doing. What makes the difference? What are you doing different, or what is it that helps you to actually keep volume growing?
Yeah, great question. So we've, w e have seen growth overall in prepared foods. That has come from our food service part of our business. We generally, in many of our businesses, right, have a split, where usually a little heavyweight over to retail versus food service, but that extends through certainly in our prepared foods business as well. We had made a real effort to gain back some market share in food service that we had lost kind of through the pandemic time period.
And we've started to realize the benefits of those improvements. That's really being driven by, you know, the core elements of where we needed to focus, and that's bringing a pipeline to our food service operators that'll bring a solution for them within those prepared foods products. Really gaining new distribution through that has been a real key in returning and continuing to expand our food service growth opportunities.
Okay. And then within that, I think you also launched, like, certain initiatives within, like, digital and just better understanding. Maybe that's a supply chain question. So how has that helped you with the prepared food story? Any examples you can potentially share of, like, how some of these investments, also from digitalization and just, like, better solutions to your customers, has helped you to, like, gain maybe market share back?
Yeah. Yeah, certainly, I generally will characterize that as digital and data in the investments that we have made across the business. And that's enabled us, you know, to better identify and better get in tune with our consumers, and help us with our innovation pipeline, where we need to go. An example of that would be in Jimmy Dean. So across prepared foods network, certainly a lot of great brands in number one and number two positions that we should be bringing innovation to our customers. But one specifically, Jimmy Dean product for breakfast would be Maple Griddle Cakes. That's, this performed very well. A definite need that we identified through our investment in data and digital, and been able to bring that to the consumers and had great success.
Okay. Another, just on the segments, I mean, international has finally seen some good growth, and results have started to improve. There was always, like, a little bit of an underperformer here. Can you maybe talk about the growth opportunities that you're seeing? Because obviously, you always talk about international as, like, the market to be, right? That's where the beef consumption is going to grow, chicken consumption is going to grow, but your footprint is predominantly in the U.S., so it's a lot of, like, export opportunities, et cetera. So as you think about the growth potential and the opportunity to be part of that story of international growth, what are you doing in order to take part in that?
Yeah, maybe start back with the first part of the question, which is, you know, we definitely continue to see no different than our message in the past. Protein growth, its greatest opportunity continues to be outside the United States. And we've made a number of investments over the last several years, not only through M&A lens, but also through organic opportunities. We have invested in a number of new facilities over the last three years. And that is certainly a part of the generation of starting to show up a bit more at the bottom line. But our opportunity going forward is going to be continue to fill up those plants with value-added opportunities for our customers and really maximize the investment that we have made, both through inorganic and organic opportunities.
Okay. And then you just named Devin Cole as head of your international business, was introduced during the last call, and he obviously had, like, a lot to do with the global McDonald's relationship, which we know you're a key supplier to them and work together with them in many places. So do you see something like that, like a key customer relationship, like the one with McDonald's, as a good engine of growth opportunity internationally, aside from the domestic opportunities?
Yeah. I certainly can't comment on specific customers...
Yep.
... but the type of partnership that we strive, whether it's domestic or international, is to grow with key customers, and as we look to our international capacity, filling up the capacity that we've added, certainly that will be through strong international partners that look to continue to grow in those arenas, and certainly, Devin and his track record have demonstrated the ability to generate those really great partnerships for both of us to win.
Okay, got it. And I can sneak in one on the supply chain. So how do you feel about the quality of your supply chain right now? Because we've seen the industry overall during times of COVID, there was obviously certain struggle, certain issues. There was a lot of, like, talk about automation and streamlining, et cetera. So as you look at the portfolio across the different segments, be it on the commodity side versus the prepared food side. Are you good with what you're having on the supply chain, or do you raise your hands and asking him for more money to invest?
So I think first and foremost, back to the question on digital is part of this as well. And so we can operate better as an entire supply chain enterprise when we have better data and we're able to use that data in a better manner. The key example Curt referenced is important. On the poultry side, our poultry team's using data very, very well to help forecast specific locations, regionality that we service with our distribution center network, to make sure we get the right product in the right spot, while maintaining inventory at lower levels with appropriate working capital targets as well.
And so just the use of data has allowed us to be more efficient within our existing footprint to service the customer with high fill rates, and it all lays back into how we manage the supply and demand dynamics, specifically in the poultry business, which has really been a highlight of Tyson over the last eighteen months. And really getting processes in place that are sustainable as well allows us to be efficient and make sure we don't have an oversupply situation. So everything comes back to data and information decision-making for me and in the infrastructure, we're able to be adaptive and move where the customers move and grow as well.
Good. On the investment side, you've had an elevated CapEx level over the last couple of years. So maybe, Curt, just remind us initially, what were some of these projects that drove CapEx higher, and what are the benefits that you've seen from these investments?
Yeah, so I spoke about one, Bowling Green, Kentucky, a new bacon facility. But we also continued to invest in value-added chicken. We built a new, a fully cooked chicken plant in Danville, Virginia. And we've also invested in a number of new international plants as well, that I spoke about previously. But there's a lot of spend that's occurred within our existing facilities to continue to streamline and automate and bring forward, our operational excellence agenda, that have really enabled that. And that has been one of the catalysts that has enabled us to transform, from 2022 , 2023 to 2024's performance.
And I think, you know, just to touch on from an overall perspective, the level of CapEx, you know, we have come off two years of $1.9 billion, so our 2022 and 2023 year of $1.9 billion of CapEx per year. And that was very much driven by capacity expansion and profit improvement. But as we settle back down into a more normalized level, and we've provided guidance, you know, which would be $1.2-$1.3 billion for this year, is a good expectation for us. But I'll hurry on to add that that does consider not just the maintenance piece, but a portfolio of profit improvement and capacity expansion that we expect to generate a return on the total, coming off of, you know, a much higher years pushing almost $2 billion.
How much of that $1.2 to $1.3 billion is actually maintenance right now?
We don't break that out separately. But, you know, it has been relatively constant, steady for us. But the total composite, when you put that together at a $1.25 billion portfolio, still expect to generate a return on that.
Got it. All right. Staying within, like, capital allocation in general, cash flow has been much higher...
Mm-hmm.
... than probably you also expected at the beginning of the fiscal year, so that came in. We just talked about the CapEx needs, et cetera. How should we think about just the balance of the cash flow? I mean, the dividend, you did a minor increase for the year. Share buybacks also from time to time and opportunities. As you balance that, where do you see the priorities right now between those two first?
Yeah, maybe address just the capital allocation priorities first, if that's okay. We're still the same approach from a capital allocation priorities, right? It starts with building and maintaining our financial strength. It includes investing in our businesses, as well as returning cash to shareholders, through dividends and share repos, but is still on the backbone of commitment to investment grade and a long-term leverage target ratio of at or below two times. Relative to your question, yeah, it's been a great cash flow year for us.
We gave guidance for the first time, talking about specifically expectations of free cash flow. And we have had a good cash flow year. We're at $1.1 billion through the third quarter of free cash flow. That is with a, you know, a good level, kind of on pace relative to the CapEx guidance that we've provided, and a modest increase in dividends for this year. But we remain committed to our dividend policy. And we've had a track record of increasing annually our dividend here for, you know, well in excess of a decade.
Okay. So as you kind of maybe to round it up, as you think about where the company was one, one and a half years ago, with the struggles, the journey we've gone through, like, where do you think you stand within that journey? How much more room do you have to improve across the different businesses? I mean, certain markets put aside, we know beef's not gonna go turn around anytime soon, but I mean, the ones that, as you say, to control the controllables, what can you continue to control to be better?
Yeah, maybe I'll start a couple things. Brady will probably add. But as I think about from the overall standpoint, right, this is a tremendous year to reinforce the multi-protein, multi-channel strategy, right? Certainly coming through the challenges of last year revalidated the approach of having that varied exposure that we have and being able to participate in both retail and food service channels, and to participate across the entire protein spectrum.
We've got opportunities ahead. Each of the businesses are gonna be very dynamic. But the one thing I would add before I turn it over to Brady for anything else is our communication with our investor base and being very specific in what we're doing to manage not only the business and control the controllables from an operational standpoint, but control the controllables relative to working capital management, working with the businesses much closer in those inventory levels.
Goes back to what Brady talked about from data and digital and making better decisions and managing tighter across the entire business to enable us to be very focused on operational cash, operating cash flows, managing CapEx in a much more tight and disciplined manner to produce the level of free cash flow that we expect of ourselves.
Yeah. We've done a really nice job of laying a solid foundation over the last 18 months and getting appropriate improvements. There's still runway in front of us, and specifically on the pork side in our operations, there's still runway there. Beef, there's runway there. Curt mentioned on our prepared foods, really we're laying in management operating systems and doing business a little bit differently than we have within our four walls before, that allows the sustainment and the discipline to make sure that we continue to deliver to the expectations of the leadership team.
All right, well, good stuff, I guess. It's a good, good wrap. Thank you very much, Curt.
Thank you.
Brady, thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you!