Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium First Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question again, just press star one. Thank you. Sebastian Marti, you may begin your conference.
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastian Marti, and I'm Ternium's Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director. Ternium released yesterday its financial results for the first quarter of 2022. This call is complimentary to that presentation. Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, Máximo Vedoya, and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page 2 in today's webcast presentation.
You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.
Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning to everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today. Ternium showed a strong set of results in the first quarter of the year. Shipments are recovering, and margins decreased as expected, although they remained at high levels. Since our last conference call in February, the global steel business environment changed significantly as a result of the invasion of Ukraine and a consequent wave of international sanctions against Russia, not to mention the humanitarian tragedy this conflict created. In an already volatile steel market environment, the conflict in Ukraine brought even more disruptions as both of these countries are relevant participants in the trade of steel and related raw materials, creating scarcity of these inputs and a consequent cost push to steel prices. Pig iron, PCI, slabs, and hot rolled steel were particularly affected.
As a result of these supply disruptions in the international steel markets, previously declining steel prices took a sharp turn up by the end of the first quarter and recently stabilized at relatively high levels. Let's review now the latest developments in our main markets in this new scenario. In Mexico, we expect shipments to continue increasing in the second quarter of this year. There is currently a restocking in the commercial market in response to these new conditions in the market, although it remains somewhat slow. On the other hand, the industrial market continues to be healthy, and we expect to continue growing in this market aided by the new hot-strip mill in Pesquería, increasing our market participation. The auto industry continued to suffer from supply chain disruptions, creating order backlogs that should support higher steel demand down the road.
We are now more positive in our expectation for this industry during the second half of the year as we are already seeing some recovery in orders. The ramp-up of the new hot rolling mill in Pesquería, Mexico is progressing as expected as we continue working on certifying our products with different industrial customers and gradually adjusting the facility and its logistics for a higher level of production. To complement the capacity offered by the new hot-strip mill and to broaden our value-added product portfolio, we recently announced a new investment program at our Pesquería Industrial Center. The program consists of a new cold rolling mill, a hot-dip galvanizing line, a push-pull pickling line, and a new finishing lines.
The new investment program, with expected start up of operation in the first half of 2024, should help us better serve our customers in the automotive, renewable energy, and home appliance industry and will support our leading position as a steel supplier in Mexico. This adds to the already announced expansion of our Shreveport facility in U.S. state of Louisiana with a second coil coating painting line expected to start up in mid-2024. Let me now turn to Argentina. For some time now, the Argentine market has been a very stable one despite a high degree of uncertainty, and this has not changed. Currently, steel demand remains healthy in the auto industry, construction, the agribusiness, and the energy sector. Based on what we can see for the next few months, shipments in the second quarter should increase a bit from last quarter.
However, there are some factors that could affect steel demand further on, mostly related to the unstable macro situation in the country. We'd like now to make a quick comment regarding sustainability at Ternium and our ongoing projects. We are committed to the industry's sustainable development, and our efforts were recognized once again by the World Steel Association. Early this month, Ternium was selected as a sustainability champion for the fourth year in a row. This was on top of the safety and health excellence recognition for its safety management initiative, also from World Steel. Also, since our last call, we participate in a survey from EcoVadis on our ESG initiatives. EcoVadis is an ESG rating agency used by several of our largest industrial customers. In this survey, we attained a top 10% score in our industry.
The rate obtained is already higher than the rate required by our customers for 2025. This inquiry was structured in four main topics, environmental, labor and human rights, ethical behavior, and sustainable procurement. Let me now wrap up these initial remarks with some final thoughts. We started the year with very good results, and we expect to have an even better performance in the second quarter. We should not lose sight of the fact that there is significant uncertainty regarding the performance of the world's economy down the road. The ongoing disruption from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-related lockdowns in China are a cause of concern. This, together with the current inflationary environment in the world and the beginning of a monetary tightening cycle, could affect the world's economic growth rate in the future.
We believe we are very well positioned in this uncertain scenario. The transformation of our company since the acquisition of our slab facility in Brazil and the conclusion of our expansion project in Mexico enables us to continue growing our market participation with an even better competitive position. In addition, we currently have a strong financial position and expect to have a significant cash generation in 2022. This is a comfortable situation from which to face any volatility in the steel markets. This financial strength will allow us to continue to execute our dividend program with the next payment due in May and the advance payment for 2022's dividend due in November. Now, with a longer-term view, I'm positive regarding the downstream investment program in Pesquería.
This initiative is consistent with our long-standing strategy to continually optimize our industrial system in order to capture future market opportunities. I expect it to strengthen our competitive position, enable us to replace imports in the Mexican market, and better serve our customers with a broader and more technologically advanced product portfolio. All right, I'll finish my remarks here. Please, Pablo, go ahead with your review of the quarter performance.
Thanks, Máximo, and good morning to everybody. The global business scenario that Máximo has just discussed has had a relatively limited influence on Ternium's performance during the first quarter of the year. Naturally, its implication expected to be more evident further on. Let's now examine Ternium's performance in the first quarter 2022 and also review our guidance regarding the second quarter under the newer scenario. Let's start on page three of the webcast presentation. Slide three depicts Ternium EBITDA and net income in each of the last 5 quarters. By historical standards, the EBITDA in the first quarter has been strong, although lower sequentially, as anticipated. The reason behind this is a decrease in EBITDA margin. We reflected steel price correction from record high levels back in the second part of last year, and a further increase in raw material costs.
Looking forward, in the second quarter, we expect the company's EBITDA to rebound. We will analyze this in more detail in the coming slides. The strong operating performance in the first quarter led to net income per ADS of $3.95, also a solid number. On page four, let's review the performance of Ternium steel shipments in each market. In Mexico, in the first quarter of the year, we partially recovered the volume lost in the fourth quarter. Looking forward, we expect shipments to continue improving in the second quarter. In the southern region, shipments decreased sequentially in the first quarter, reflecting seasonality, weaker demand in Argentina.
Looking ahead, we expect shipments in the southern region to increase slightly in the second quarter. In the other markets region, volumes decreased slightly on sequential basis, reflecting lower volumes of slab shipped to third parties, which was pretty much offset by higher finished steel shipments. In page number five, you can see that combining this development, we arrive at consolidated steel shipment of 3 million tons in the first quarter, up 4% versus the fourth quarter. Based on what we have discussed, we expect to report in the second quarter a sequential increase in consolidated steel shipments. Let's now review steel prices and net sales. In the first quarter, revenue per ton declined 5% sequentially on lower realized steel prices, mainly Mexico and the other market region.
The combination of sequentially higher shipments and lower revenue per ton resulted in stable net sales of $4.3 billion. Looking forward, we expect revenue per ton to rebound in the second quarter on higher realized prices in Ternium's main steel markets for the reasons already discussed. Moving to the next page. Let's review now the main drivers behind the sequential change in the EBITDA and net income in the first quarter of the year. The EBITDA chart on the top shows the impact on EBITDA of lower revenue per ton and higher cost per ton, which increased mainly as a result of higher raw material prices. These negative effects were partially offset by higher shipments. For the next quarter, we expect the EBITDA to increase sequentially, reflecting higher steel shipments and margins, as revenue per ton should increase more than cost per ton.
The chart below showing the first quarter sequential decrease in net income, mainly driven by lower operating and financial results, which decreased mainly due to higher foreign exchange losses and a lower value of financial instruments. On the other hand, the effective tax rate in the first quarter was relatively low, mainly due to the positive deferred tax results at Ternium's Mexico and Argentina subsidiaries. To conclude with today's presentation, let's review on page seven Ternium's cash flow, performance, and financial position. Cash flow from operations in the first quarter were $692 million. These numbers include income tax payments in the quarter of $868 million, and also a working capital release of $331 million, which reflected lower steel inventory volumes, as well as reflecting the impact of higher steel prices and raw material costs.
Income tax were unusually high in the quarter, mainly as a result of the payment of the income tax balance of fiscal year 2021 in Mexico, and here with a tremendous increase in profit compared to the previous one, so 2022. Let me remind you that we paid income tax advances during the year that were based on the income tax of the previous fiscal year, in this case, 2022. 2020, sorry. The year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With strong recovery profitability in 2021, the income tax balance left to be paid in March 2022 for the result of the year 2021 resulted in a very high payment. With a stable CapEx, cash from operations in the first quarter led to a very solid free cash flow in the period, raising our net cash position to $1.6 billion by the end of March.
Our current expectation is that Ternium will continue showing healthy cash generation during the rest of the year, based on a CapEx estimate for the year of approximately $600 million. With this, we finish our opening remarks. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are now ready for taking your questions. Please, operator, proceed with the Q&A session. Thanks.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Caio Greiner from BTG Pactual. Your line is open.
Hi. Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thank you. My first question on Pesquería. I just wanted to check with you guys, at what stage is the Pesquería ramp up currently at? So far we haven't really seen volumes rise as initially expected. I remember speaking with you guys a few quarters ago that the idea was to have incremental shipments of nearly 1.5 million tons already in 2022 and 2023. So far, it seems like this is still not the case. What needs to happen for us to start seeing those incremental volumes for Ternium in Mexico and start seeing that thesis of import substitution play out, which still remain quite elevated? Just to understand, what has changed since then?
Was it due to higher slab prices only, or is there any other reason behind that? My second question on capital allocation. I just wanted to see if you guys could share with us an updated CapEx estimate for 2022 and 2023, 'cause I'm just looking to understand how the $1 billion investment recently announced is going to impact cash flow generation over the next couple of years. Even so, I mean, you're still running on a $1.6 net cash position.
Also just wanted to understand if on top of those investments, we could see more aggressive dividend payments into 2022, 2023, and maybe into 2024 as well, or if you have any other short-term plans for that amount of cash that you're currently carrying. Thank you.
Caio, thank you very much for your two questions, very good ones. Pesquería ramp-up. There are two things here. First, the ramp-up of the Pesquería facility is going very well, at least from a technical point of view. I mean, we produce in the fourth quarter of this year roughly 500,000 tons, which was kind of the program. In the first quarter, we produced almost 700,000 tons from that hot strip mill, and we expect to produce almost a million, I think it's 900,000 tons in the second quarter, and then 1 million and a little bit in the third quarter of this year. That's what we expected in the business plan when we make the investment. That's from a technical point of view is running very well.
On the other side, you are right about the volumes. As we discussed last quarter, and I think the one before, we saw a slowdown in the commercial market in Mexico, and that made us produce less from the facility in Churubusco. I mean, the commercial market was very weak in Mexico in the fourth quarter, and it started to increase a little bit this quarter, and I think it's gonna be better next quarters, as I said in the previous remarks. The plan to increase volume was a little bit delayed. If you take this year, the sales of slabs. Because slabs are going to decrease sales, as we send more slabs from Brazil to Mexico, we are gonna decrease slab sales to third parties.
The volumes are gonna increase this year with regard to, compared to last year, roughly almost 1 million tons. This is Mexico mainly and North America, not only Mexico, but mainly this delay was due to the market conditions. I hope I answered the questions of the first one, Caio. The second one was regarding capital allocations. We have three things about capital allocations that I want to comment on this. The first one, of course, the capital allocation or the CapEx this year is gonna be around $600 million, and then it's gonna increase with this investment of $1 billion. Most of this $1 billion is gonna be next year in our balance sheet. Second thing is we are going to continue with the dividends.
I mean, remember that the our dividend pay was raised, I think it was 24%, the annual dividend proposal this year. Sorry, the 2021 compared with the 2020, and we expect to continue giving high dividends in the next future. The third is that, as you know, we have plans for more CapEx in the near future. We have discussed in the past our necessity to be USMCA compliant with melt and pour by 2027. This is something that we have to do. We are on the final stage on analyzing what is, which one is the best way to do this, but that is gonna require a high CapEx in the future. Those are the three things I could like or I can comment about capital allocation, Caio.
Thank you very much, Máximo. Just to make sure I understand. The melt and pour investment that you're supposed to make in Mexico, this is supposed to be for the short term, right? Could we still see an announcement in 2022, or is this gonna be-
No.
-coming for the-
It's 22 or 23, but it should be in the near future. Yes. We have a team analyzing the project, and as you know, the projects, we announce it once we have completely understand and very clear what is the technical solution and where to be.
Understood, Máximo. Thank you very much.
You're welcome, Caio.
Your next question comes from the line of Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Yeah. Good morning, Máximo, Pablo, and Sebastian. Thank you for the call. First question is, could you maybe Máximo remind us of what is the slab situation for Ternium as you ramp up Pesquería and Churubusco, maybe lower than before. You know, given the situation in Ukraine and Russia and what is happening with the global slab market, what are your plans there? How much exposure do you think you have for this year and for next year as Pesquería increases? What are the alternatives that you see available to the company as you move forward?
Maybe to complement Pablo, and I'm sorry if I missed this, on working capital. Very impressive results in the first quarter. Can you explain a little bit about what is behind the fact that you released working capital in Q1? Also, what do you see going forward, again, given all the moving pieces that we're seeing in the market?
Okay. Thank you, Carlos. I take the first question because it's the difficult one, and then Pablo, the easy one. You're right about slabs. I mean, clearly the situation in Russia and Ukraine are. Ukraine, sorry, it's modifying or it's having some effects in the slab market. 30% of the world trade of merchant slabs comes or did come from Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is not producing slab at all now because most of the factories that produce slabs are in the conflict area. Of course, some of the Russian facilities. I mean, we're not able to buy from them because of the sanctions.
Nevertheless, with this, remember that from 2018, when we took the slab facility in 2017 in Brazil, we start increasing our shipment of slabs, and that was the idea, to Mexico from Brazil. Today, in the first year we ran the facility, 30% of the slab from Brazil went to Mexico. This quarter, 85% of the slabs from the facility of Ternium Brasil went to Mexico. If you see the situation for now, it's not very tight. If you take on the other side what we bring to Mexico, 90% of our total shipment in Mexico of slabs or imports in Mexico comes today from Brazil, and the other 10%, we are finding other sources other than Russia.
I think we can manage that 10%, with these other sources we are now importing from. I hope I answered the question with that, Carlos.
Yeah, maybe just to clarify, Máximo, and thank you for those details. In this year, what is the balance of the slabs that you're expecting? Maybe for next year, what is the balance of third-party slabs that you may need to purchase on a net basis?
Oh, on a net basis this year, I think it's almost zero on a net basis because it's a little bit less than 500,000 tons on a net basis.
Okay.
Next year it's gonna be a little bit more, but probably 1 million tons of net basis. We are selling some because, I mean, as we always discuss, we see advantage in selling and then buying from other sources a little bit more cheap.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. All right.
It's not a huge volume. I mean, the slab facility is producing or will be producing almost 5 million tons.
All right. Okay.
Mm-hmm.
Okay. I'll take the easy question now on working capital. Basically what we have during this quarter is a decrease on stock, which was not only good because we were able to reduce the level of inventory, but because the pricing of the different raw materials were increasing. Secondly, we have an increase in our account receivables because of the increase that you saw of volumes to the market during the first quarter and especially the ones to the U.S. The third leg of that is that we increase the level of account payables because of the increase of prices and the increase of volume required because of the new production levels at the higher price that we are receiving in the market.
All in all, we have around $300 million of capital, of working capital release during the quarter. Looking forward, we will continue to increase accounts receivable because of the higher level of shipments. We try to sustain the level of inventories and accounts payable will also should return to more normalized levels. From the working capital, probably we will be in a more stable situation as we continue to see prices going up. One important issue to comment, which is not working capital, but free cash flow or cash flow, is that during this quarter, in the first quarter, we have a huge allocation of cash to pay the bill.
In that during this quarter, in the first quarter, we have a huge allocation of cash to pay the balance of income taxes in Mexico. All in all, we pay around $700 million on taxes during this quarter. That will not be the same in the next one. Of course, the advances that we're going to pay will be higher than what we have last year, but in comparison to what we paid during the first quarter, there will be a reduction. All in all, we should continue to have a good result on free cash flow, though probably working capital will not help as much as we have this quarter.
Thank you, Pablo and Máximo. If I may ask just another one very quickly. Next year, I think Máximo said most of the $1 billion investment in Mexico will take place in 2023. Where did you see the CapEx in 2023 and maybe 2024 given that investment?
2023 probably is $1 billion.
2024, well, it will depend on what Máximo says.
Yeah, exactly. 2024-
We need to wait a little bit.
A little bit. Carlos.
All right, fair enough. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Thiago Lofiego from Bradesco. Your line is open.
Thank you, gentlemen. Two quick questions here. The first one, on costs. How do you guys see costs evolving the next couple quarters? The second one, Máximo, just about the slab position you mentioned. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you mentioned 1 million tons gap next year. Is this a structural gap considering Pesquería fully ramped up? If so, do you think there might be opportunities to close this gap by M&A, or do you think, from a strategic point of view, you guys are fine with this short position? Thank you.
Thank you, Thiago. I'll take first the second question. I think it's. Next, I mean, remember Ternium's Brazil facility produce 5 million tons of slabs. Roughly, I mean, the capacity. It's not producing that. It's producing 4.6 now or something like that. We will try to increase it to the maximum level. Pesquería facility, the new hot strip mill, it's around 4 million tons. It's not still at that capacity, to be honest. Remember, it has a long ramp up, these facilities. The Molino, the Churubusco mill has roughly a capacity of a little less than 3 million tons. The balance today would be 2 million tons, if we are at full capacity in Churubusco facilities.
That's the imbalance we have of slabs, 2 million tons. To be honest, there are sales to be made in Brazil also through Usiminas, which we would like to participate in. Usiminas, remember, has a hot strip mill in Cubatão facility with no upstream. The idea in the future is to sell to Usiminas. That's why also, as I said before, we have to be USMCA compliant in 2027. Probably most likely we are going to invest to be USMCA compliant. That balance will be probably zero in the future. I hope with that, Thiago, I answered the question.
I'm a little bit confused here, Máximo. I'm sorry. just-
Okay.
Just from what you mentioned to Carlos, right? You mentioned on a net basis, you're gonna have to purchase 1 million tons next year, right? Is that right?
Yes, exactly. We are not at full capacity at Churubusco's facility.
Okay. Got it. When you go to full capacity at Churubusco, you think your net purchases will be zero. Is that what you're saying?
No. My net purchases, if I go to full capacity, will be around 2 million tons.
Yeah, I'm sorry.
2 million tons. That's net. As we want to sell to Usiminas-
Mm-hmm.
probably we need to buy a little bit more. On the other side, again, we have to invest in the near future because if not, we are not going to be USMCA compliant in melt and pour. That's a thing that we have to do before 2027. In the future, and I'm not talking about the near future, but at least in four or five years, we are going to be net zero. I mean, we are not going to need to buy slabs probably.
Got it. I guess my question is how are you gonna get there?
Well, we have to invest in a steel job.
Got it. Okay. It's not gonna be.
In, uh-
There is no M&A.
In North America, yeah. USMCA market.
Okay.
Yeah.
Got it. Now it's clear. Thank you, Máximo.
Okay, Thiago. The cost, Pablo?
Yeah. Okay. In relation to the cost, clearly what we will be seeing enter into next quarter is increased price of slabs. The same one that we were describing recently that we will be buying. Remember that price of slabs increase also quite significantly. The price of coal increase PCI and different raw material. Basically, every raw material increase prices. We will start to see them through our costs during the second quarter and also and especially in the third quarter. But what we have said during initial remarks that we are expecting, and as you saw in the market, that prices of the finished products, steel prices, will be higher than the impact of the different raw material cost increases. That's why we are expecting to see a better margin enter into the second quarter.
Clearly, costs will be higher.
Okay, that's very clear. If I may, I'm sorry, guys. Just, Máximo, just to tack on the first question.
Yeah.
In a timeframe of the next maybe 2-3 years, would you expect to be doing that project on the slab side in North America? Is that reasonable?
Yes. Yes, we have to do it, to be honest. We are analyzing. I think we talked a little bit about it in our last conference call also. We are not ready to announce it, but it's very clear our automotive customers are very important for us. We sell almost more than 2-3 million tons to them in the North American market, and we expect to continue doing so we need to be USMCA compliant. Having said all this, Thiago, just a clarification. It's not that in 5 years we are going to be out of purchasing slabs. We are probably gonna continue purchasing slabs and probably Brazil, our Brazilian mill will sell slabs to third party as we are doing today. No?
The net balance probably is gonna be zero.
No, that's very clear. All right. Thank you, Máximo, again.
Mm-hmm.
Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Yeah. Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks. Wanted to just dial down a little bit more on the volume outlook. I know you touched on an improvement into the second quarter and mentioned that demand was a little bit light into the first quarter, but it still is hard for me to square with, you know, the declines year-over-year because there's still COVID-19 hits a year ago. If we think about Q2, and we think about the 900,000 tons from Pesquería and just assume flat year-over-year, I mean, we're talking about almost 4 million tons in Mexico. Sorry, overall. Is that the right way to think about the potential upside, you know, quarter-over-quarter, or am I missing something? That's my first question.
My second question was just to get some tax rate guidance given the light first quarter on the rate, not the payout. I understand the cash implication. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Hi, Timna. How are you? Let me start by the tax issue, and then we go for the other question on volumes. Unfortunately, for us, it's very difficult to predict exactly how the tax rate, the nominal tax rate will be because it's very much dependent on the situation of the different currencies. If you have a revaluation, you have a reduced tax. If you have a devaluation, you have a higher one. That will depend on how the situation at the end of the market. We know that the tax rate for Ternium overall, without taking into consideration deferred taxes, is around 28%, which is a mix of rates of Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina.
Suppose that would be good if there is no deferred taxes, the tax rate for Ternium should be that 28%. Clearly, we have different impacts in the currency during this first quarter. We have revaluation in Mexico and Brazil, and we have a devaluation in Argentina, but the devaluation was below the inflation rate. That's the cumulative impact of this. I know that is not very clear, but you need to see which is the cash position, the impact of this. I know that is not very clear, but you need to see which is the cash position or financial position of the company to see that.
In general, that's the rule. If you have a revaluation of the currency, you have a reduced tax rate. If you have devaluation, probably you will have an increase, a little increase. In Argentina, it will depend very much on the relationship between devaluation and inflation. I know that is very difficult to understand and very complex to understand, and unfortunately, you need to wait until the last date of the quarter to know exactly how this will work because we depend very much on how the movements of the different currencies work. I hope I have been clear on that. Timna, if not, we can then go through in details.
No problem.
Yeah. Regarding the volume.
On that, Timna, if not, we can then go through in details.
No problem.
Regarding the volume, Timna, I don't know if I follow your math. Let me try to answer your question. I mean, if this is correct. Our volume outlook. I mean, Argentina, it's gonna be probably the same volume that we did last year. I mean, although we were a little bit more pessimistic, we are seeing now the market with this uncertainty, I thought, but we are seeing volumes coming, orders coming. It's clearly healthy, the market in Argentina, and we expect to continue that way, at least for this quarter and next quarter. In the case of Brazil slabs, this is gonna decrease. Third-party slabs are gonna decrease this quarter. Probably, we'll ship half of that.
In the case of the other markets. Our increase in volume will be probably a little bit more than 1 million tons 1 year compared to the other one. That's our volume outlook in this. With the market, as I said, in Mexico, which an industrial market in Mexico is very strong and a commercial market that most of that is construction, infrastructure, that it's not growing very good in Mexico, as you well know. It's a mixed part of the market. I hope with this I answer or correct me if I'm wrong, Timna, please.
I think I was just simplistically saying, you know, a year ago, Q2, you produced almost 3.1 million tons, and if we just added simplistically 900,000 tons projected from Pesquería, we'd be at 4 million tons. That seems like a big number relative to your Q1, so I just wanted to say, is that right or wrong and why? Just on, in light of the fact that, you know, recent prices have spiked, we know you exported a bit, you know, from, I think the ramp-up in Mexico. Is that not an opportunity also to boost volumes given where prices have run to internationally?
No, sure. I mean, I was talking mainly about Mexico, and you're right.
Internationally?
No, sure. I mean, I was talking mainly about Mexico, and you're right. There is an opportunity to export, and we are seeing to ramp up those opportunities, too, to be honest. We don't have much of that volume yet in what I told you. If we increase a lot the export. We are very cautious of that also, not to increase to a lot of markets. Yes, it's an opportunity that we are seeing, Timna.
Okay, great. Thank you.
No, thank you to you.
Your next question comes from the line of Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Yes, hello and good day, everyone. The question that I have is regarding growth. What we can see is that there is a good period of high free cash flow generation and an opportunity to, let's say, rethink the size of the company. We were just discussing the investments in Mexico or in North America for more slab. I think it would be very useful if you can provide some guidance on how Ternium is going to look five or six years from now in terms of production capacity, in terms of geographical exposure, you know, what's gonna happen in Mexico, if there are plants in Argentina, Brazil, all of LATAM.
I think to have like a map on how Ternium is going to look, thinking, you know, 5 or 6 years ahead. Probably it's not an answer we need right now, but if you can, you know, help us to understand what's the plan behind these investments, that could be very useful.
Yeah. Alfonso, thank
Behind these investments, that could be very useful.
Yeah. Alfonso, thank you very much for your question. It's clearly a very broad question and we have, I mean, several things. I mean, our growth path is the America and we are gonna have some growth in Argentina probably, but that's in value-added products and I'm talking in the long term. Nothing of this is something that we are gonna announce in the near future. We also have a view of growing in Brazil.
Brazil, our acquisition of the CSA facility was very successful, and now we know much more of the market. There is a business thinking in Ternium that that's a market where most of our customers are, so someday we can go there. Clearly the North American market is a place where we'll continue growing. I talk about the investments we are seeing. We are seeing that the volumes and the market there is gonna increase. I know there is capacity also being built in North America, but we are seeing a lot of this nearshoring or reshoring happening. I mean, China, the problem between the U.S. and China, the war now, this is all happening.
I mean, China, the problem between the U.S. and China, the war now, this is all making all people that have their supply chain in Asia, most of them are thinking or some of them are already coming to the U.S. and to Mexico. I mean, every month you see new investments of our own customers or new customers coming to the north region of Mexico. I think that the biggest opportunity of us is over there, and that's why we are getting ahead of that, doing the.
The cold roll facility, the new one, the galvanized, the 309, I'm thinking of being USMCA compliant with a much bigger CapEx. Pablo, I don't know if you want to add something to that.
Yes, thanks, Max. Yeah. Just one thing just to complement what Alfonso asked and you were saying. Clearly, the idea of Ternium is to build facilities that we are sure that we can work with them very
Yes.
Here, I mentioned it before in a question. Our idea is to have that facility working at the maximum capacity of that one. As we were discussing the issue of the new hot strip mill, we are approaching very fast full utilization of that facility, probably utilizing less others, but that one will be fully utilized. That's the same idea with the new CapEx that we already announced and the CapEx that we analyze in October will be next future. That has been what we have done in the past and clearly something that we are planning to do in the near future. Just to complement a little bit your questions.
Yeah. That's helpful for sure. I know that it is a very broad question, and probably we can talk about this in many conference calls and Ternium days to come.
Yes, for sure.
But I think this could be helped a lot. A follow-up on Mexico, if I may. The energy reform did not pass. Just wondering if you can say anything about how this changes the energy strategy or helps your energy strategy or business opportunities in the country.
Yeah. Thank you, Alfonso. You're right, the energy reform did not pass. I think there's still a lot of confusion about the, well, you call it LIE in Spanish. I think the, this Electric Industry Law that was passed, a couple of months ago, or six months ago, and then it was not declared unconstitutional, but it was not declared also constitutional. There's gonna be a still a lot of noise about energy in Mexico, I think, for the next following months. In our case in particular, remember, we produce most of our own energy with a very competitive facility. This is not going to change with this new law. We are relatively comfortable in where we are.
I don't see a lot of energy investment in Mexico in the near future until this LIE, this electrical industry law, is clarified and so new investments are gonna come to Mexico. I hope with that I clarified what is happening in Mexico.
Yeah. That, that's it. Thank you, Máximo.
We have a follow-up question from Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Yeah. Thank you very much. Regarding the situation of being USMCA compliant, clearly, I guess there is two choices. Either you invest in crude steel capacity in one of the three countries or you try to buy something. Is there anything that is available that would provide that second alternative? Or you are really only analyzing at this point a greenfield facility?
Thank you. Hello again, Carlos. No, I mean, we are seeing a greenfield facility.
It will likely be an electric furnace, right? Or definitely be an electric furnace?
No, it would definitely be electric furnace. Yes. No doubt about it.
If that's the case, would this come together with an expansion of your iron ore pellet facilities? Or do you think that with what you have in terms of this, of the iron ore mining side of it, you will be okay and maybe you just expand your pellet and DRI facilities?
Yeah. Not necessarily a mining operation right now. Probably a DRI facility, yes. These are all the things, Carlos, that we are analyzing, to be honest, which is the best way to go. That's why, I mean, we are not announcing anything yet. We are discussing which is the best way, which is the best technical solution. Clearly, it's electric furnace. Clearly, it's a direct reduction. Not necessarily investing in new capacity of pellets in the near future or in the short term.
Perfect. Thank you very much, Maximo.
Yeah, you're welcome, Carlos.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to Ternium's CEO for some closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you all very much for your participation today and for your interest in our company. As usual, please contact us for any feedback or any additional questions you may have. Take care and goodbye. Thank you very much again.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.