Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Ternium Second Quarter Conference Call. I will now hand today's call over to Sebastián Martí. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastián Martí, and I am Ternium's Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director. Ternium released yesterday its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2022. This call is complimentary to that presentation. Joining me today are Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, Máximo Vedoya, and the company's Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Brizzio, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation.
You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.
Thank you, Sebastián, and good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for your participation today in our conference call. Ternium reported strong results for the second quarter, with $1.2 billion adjusted EBITDA and a margin of more than $400 per ton. These results were similar to those obtained in the first quarter of the year, representing a solid start for 2022. Over the past 12 months, Ternium's solid competitive position and the outstanding effort of its people enabled it to take advantage of our very attractive business conditions.
In this period, we generate $5.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $1.9 billion of free cash flow, and returned to shareholders over $500 million in dividend payments. Looking ahead, we expect increased volatility, sorry, in the business environment. In the first quarter, Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused an upsurge in raw material and steel prices. Over the last few months, higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, a consequent monetary tightening, and the effect on global supply chains of China's COVID-19 restrictions drove raw material and steel prices to a significant decrease. Looking ahead, I believe the main steel business variables are today closer to more sustainable level, so we could see a stabilization during the next couple of months.
Having said this, volatility will persist for some time as there continues to be a considerable level of uncertainty related to the factors I've just mentioned. Let's turn now to a review of our main markets. In Mexico, the industrial market remains relatively healthy, with different dynamics in the different industries. The auto industry continued to suffer from supply chain disruptions affecting the availability of semiconductors and other inputs for its production process. We have been expecting these disruptions to decrease for several quarters already, but they seem to be harder to solve than what most people expected, and recent China's lockdowns continue to affect these global supply chains. On the other hand, there is significant unsatisfied end user demand in this industry. When these procurement problems are finally worked through, there will be an opportunity for us to increase shipments to OEMs.
In addition, we have been making progress with product certification in our new hot rolling mill in Pesquería, something that will enable us to gain market share in this sector. Other manufacturing industries, like HVAC and electrical motors, are doing well. On the other hand, the white goods industry is slowing down production rates as a result of accumulation of end product inventory in the value chains. Finally, the commercial market in Mexico, mostly driven by construction activity, is currently having weak apparent demand due to a destocking process resulting from the decrease in steel prices over the last few months, as well as the impact on end customers of higher interest rate and inflation. Looking forward, the low level of inventories in the market is going to need a restocking that will probably happen during the second half. Moving now to Argentina.
Steel demand in the market remains at similar levels to those of the last few quarters, despite higher level of volatility in the country's macroeconomic environment. Most of the sector in Argentina continue to show good demand, like agribusiness sector, the auto industry, the white goods industry, and the energy sector. The uncertainty regarding the country's macro situation has increased since our last conference call. Steel demand further on may reflect substantial macroeconomic volatility. I would like now to share our progress on some sustainability topics. Last quarter, Ternium released its annual sustainability report. In this new edition, we reinforce our reporting framework by adding SASB standards for iron and steel producers, and also the recommendations of TCFD. We believe this is a step forward in the sustainability disclosure of our company, in line with current discussions on the matter.
We have also been working on improving the tools we use for the management of CO₂ emissions in our company. Recently, we completed the assessment of Ternium's greenhouse gases emissions under the GHG Protocol Accounting Standard. This is complementary to reporting of CO₂ emissions and the World Steel methodology, which have been carried out over the last few years. With the application of the GHG Protocol Standard, we are extending the assessment boundaries to the whole company. This methodology also provides enhanced emissions management capabilities down to each production line. It is important to note that we have also performed for the first time a third-party verification of Ternium emissions metrics. Another relevant topic for Ternium is safety. A few weeks ago, we had our annual safety day event with the participation of employees and managers from all the countries where we operate.
It is an opportunity to share the results of safety programs in place, our best practices around the organization, and future action plans. Safety is a key issue in the company's agenda, and we are encouraged by the results we are getting so far, as our lost time injury frequency rate during the first half of the year has been the lowest ever. Wrapping up, we expect to keep showing healthy shipments over the following quarters. On the other hand, the normalization of steel business variables will bring a decrease of margin to more sustainable levels. I am positive Ternium is well positioned to show distinctive profitability once steel business variables stabilize and all recent changes to steel prices and raw material cost goes through our books. The strength of Ternium's balance sheet and our enhanced competitive position will enable Ternium to navigate the expected volatility in the markets.
Further on, we anticipate cash generation will remain robust as we should gradually release a good share of the working capital investments made when input costs and steel prices were significantly higher than they currently are. Okay, with that, I stop here and ask Pablo to go ahead with the review of our quarter's performance.
Thanks, Máximo, and thanks everybody for participating in our call. As you will see in today's webcast presentation, Ternium continues showing very strong results in the second quarter of the year, similar to those records it recorded in the first quarter. Let's start by looking at page three in the presentation with adjusted EBITDA and net earnings. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was at $1.2 billion on margins of 28% or $414 per ton. We expect lower margins going forward as they start to reflect the significant decrease in steel benchmark prices over the last three months. Although market prices for raw materials has also been decreasing lately, we expect cost per ton to increase in the third quarter as the company will consume raw material purchased in previous months at higher cost.
Net income in the period reached $936 million or $4.07 per ADS, solid by historical standards, reflecting the strong operating performance. Let's turn now to page four to review the steel shipments. In Mexico, steel volumes were 1.7 million tons in the second quarter of the year, increasing sequentially and slightly below the level achieved in the prior year second quarter. In the Southern region, shipments in the second quarter were 600,000 tons, slightly higher sequentially and down on a year-over-year basis. In the other market region, shipments were 376,000 tons in the second quarter, lower sequentially.
On a year-over-year basis, the decrease in the volume of slab shipped to third parties was mostly offset by higher finished steel shipments in Ternium's market in the region. Ternium has been gradually increasing the integration of its slab facility in Brazil, with the finishing facilities made in Mexico and Argentina. As you can see in the top right chart in light gray. In the next page, number five, you can see that combining these developments, we arrived at consolidated shipments of 3 million tons in the second quarter, stable sequentially and a little down versus the prior year second quarter. Looking forward into the third quarter, we anticipate shipments to remain relatively stable. Moving on to steel prices. Ternium revenue per ton in the second quarter increased slightly sequentially and advanced substantially on a year-over-year basis.
As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate a decrease in realized flat steel prices in the third quarter as steel prices have decreased significantly, and this will be gradually reflected by the lag effect of contract prices in Mexico. Let's now review on page six the main drivers behind the changes in adjusted EBITDA and net income. There was a slight sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, reflecting higher realized steel prices in Mexico and Argentina, partially offset by higher costs. Labor costs increased in the second quarter, mainly in connection with Ternium Mexico employee profit sharing. This, together with increase in energy costs, was partially offset by lower purchased slab costs. Let me remind you that we use first-in, first-out accounting to value our inventories, so it takes up to five months to reflect in our financials changes in slab and raw material prices.
Looking forward, Ternium expects adjusted EBITDA to decrease sequentially in the third quarter, reflecting lower margins and relatively stable shipments. Net income chart at the bottom show a sequential increase in the second quarter, mainly driven by better financial results. This improvement primarily reflected a higher value of financial instruments, while income tax increased sequentially as a result of slightly better results and a higher effective tax rate. Let's turn now to page seven. There was no cash from operations generated in the second quarter, mainly as a result of a working capital increase of $681 million and income tax cash payments of over $600 million.
Tax payments in the period includes an increase in advanced payments for fiscal year 2022 in Mexico and the payment of the outstanding tax balance for fiscal year 2021 in Argentina, both as a result of strong earnings recorded in 2021. The increase in working capital includes a significant impact in inventory values of higher steel and raw material costs as well as slightly higher volumes. Free cash flow in the second quarter of 2022 was -$166 million after CapEx of $161 million. This, together with the $353 million dividend paid in May, resulted in a reduction of Ternium's net cash position to $1 billion by the end of June. Now in the final slide, number eight, let's review our cash flow performance on a year-over-year basis.
Cash from operations in the first half of this year was $687 million, after deducting income tax payments of $1.5 billion and working capital increase of $350 million. Looking forward to the second half of the year, our expectation is that Ternium will show healthy cash generation based on a CapEx estimate for the year of approximately $600 million, a decrease in income tax payments compared to those of the first half, and a reduction in working capital as a price deflation of steel and raw materials flow through Ternium inventories. Okay. With this, we've finished our prepared remarks. Thank you very much again for your time and attention. Now we are ready for the questions. Please, operator, proceed with the Q&A session.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If your question has already been asked and you would like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one again. Please hold for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
Yeah. Hey, good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Timna.
Hello. Wanted to ask a few questions if I could. First one was, you know, just looking at the volumes down year-over-year in Mexico still begs the question of where the Pesquería volumes are showing up or if it's just offsetting existing tonnage. Should we expect that to continue to ramp up as you get qualified and any timeframe there? The other question is just on the EBITDA guidance of a more sustainable level. I was hoping to see if you could help quantify that a little bit better. If we look at the five years prior to COVID, the average has been about $150 a ton, but of course, the last couple years it's been closer to $400 a ton.
Any thoughts on the gap between those two levels would be helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Timna. Volumes of Pesquería. Pesquería is running between 80% and 85% of capacity, which is very high.
To be honest, running very good. As I think I mentioned in the last conference call, the problem are the market in Mexico, especially the commercial market, where we have a decrease and in apparent demand because of what we are talking. The issue with the volumes is that the other hot strip mill, the one in Churubusco, is running much lower than the capacity. The other issue is the certification process of all this new steel takes time and all the automotive certifications take at least one year. We are starting to see now these new products starting to flow through our customers, but this is a process that will take at least one year more, ramping up every quarter.
That's the main issue. Regarding EBITDA, your second part of the question, what we mean with a more sustainable level. I think I would let Pablo put more color to this, but if you remember, Timna, we have always put that our objective of EBITDA ratio before this last almost two years, let's say, was between 15% and 20%. That was a normal and higher compared to most of our peers. I think this is the outlook we are looking at, this range for the third quarter.
Probably what we will be doing in the future, especially in the next year, is that we will have to increase that objective that we have and put the bar a little bit higher of this range between 15% and 20%. This is our. I don't know, Pablo, if you want to put more clarification into this.
Hi, Timna. Okay, Máximo, you have already answered some of the questions, but let me add some color to it. Yes, clearly what Máximo was saying is what we're expecting entering into this second part of the year. We are looking or we are expecting, of course, there is the uncertainty that Máximo mentioned in prices especially, but we should be returning during this period to the levels that we had before the pandemic.
I think it's important also what Máximo mentioned, which is that, going forward or entering into 2023 or, if you want, depending on your expectations, when we have a more normalized level of prices and especially raw materials, that Ternium, after all the investment that we did at the ramp up of the new Pesquería facility, we should be targeting, margins that are at the upper side of the range or even a little over that range. I think that's the main point to pass to you that clearly there will be a reduction in margins during the next couple of quarters, and then we should be returning not only to the normal level that we used to have, but, approaching or targeting a little higher one.
The guidance of the higher end of the range would be a function of the investments that Ternium's made in downstream, the vertical integration in Mexico and some of the other company specific actions? Is that what you're saying?
Yeah, exactly. You're right. Of course, taking into consideration the prices of the final product that you never know where we'll be, but this is clearly what you have said, it's clearly what we are looking for and we are targeting.
Great. Thanks. I'll hand it over. Thanks again.
Thank you, Timna.
Your next question is from the line of Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.
Thank you very much. Just two quick questions from me. Just looking at the Mexican steel market at the moment, I mean, we've obviously seen some new capacity coming online in the U.S., and some of that volume was reportedly destined for Mexico. Are you starting to see increased import volumes or increased price pressure from some of the volumes that is coming in from the U.S. into Mexico? That's the first question. Maybe the second question, if you could just give us your updated thoughts on potentially expanding within the EAF mill capacity, that would be great. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Andreas. Yeah, Mexican, the increasing import, we are not seeing it. To be honest, if you see the imports on the Mexican market, and let's talk about flat products, which are the biggest part of the imports in Mexico, there was a huge increase last year between, I think it was between March, April and October, November, when prices were going up and our steel mill, our hot strip mill was not still functioning. Then prices started to decrease and those volumes come, I mean, the lead time of import, importing material are very high. It started, I mean, it was a long or several months of drag of those imports.
Today, we are seeing that imports are coming down from that peak, and to be honest, they're a little bit lower than what they were in 2020. We are not seeing. I think our market share is going up, or that's at least the numbers we have. We are not seeing that problem, let's say, in Mexico, at least not yet. Again, we are seeing our customers very eager to buy the material from us, and the market share increasing.
The second question was, sorry, Andreas?
Just an update on your updated thinking on expanding on the EAF or who you have decided.
Oh, yeah. No, I mean, as I told you last conference call, this is a project, it's a very complicated project, but we are still doing all the engineering, and we should, I mean, go forward to have USMCA compliance for the automotive industry in 2027, for sure. We are still in the process of doing all the engineering and the site and everything. Still on track.
Got it. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
You're welcome, Andreas.
Your next question is from the line of Alfonso Salazar with Scotiabank.
Yes, hello, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is, you know, I know that we have been asking this for years now, but if you can comment anything about how Ternium is going to unlock value, you know, and try to, you know, leave behind all the swings that we're seeing, the share price, which is very related to steel prices. Anything that you can point toward having more recognition of the share price. The second is regarding the auto industry and some trends that we are seeing today. For example, there is this trend in which OEMs are reducing the menu of affordable cars.
They are basically disappearing from the menu, and they are focusing more on SUVs, premium vehicles. In that regard, considering that there are EVs coming and the price tag is gonna be much higher, it's unclear to see why auto sales will return to past levels. Against this backdrop, I want to understand what is the strategy of OEMs increasing the use of high-strength steel and how it compares with aluminum auto parts. Aluminum is gaining more and more, it's very attractive for OEMs to produce autos using more aluminum. I just want to understand what is the strategy there, and how do you see this market going forward for Ternium?
Okay. Alfonso, let me take the first question that you make. As you know, we have been discussing this for a long period of time. What we are seeing today and then we can reflect on the future is that probably taking out some of the U.S. companies, the rest of the steel sector is having clearly a low multiple on reflecting the value of the companies.
Probably this is a consequence of the readjustment that we, Máximo and myself, were mentioning during the opening remarks, where we are seeing, as Timna mentioned also during her question, that there will be an adjustment on margins to probably a ratio closer to what we used to have prior to the pandemic, after having a couple of years of very or extremely good margins, the companies. Since we are still having or reflecting the multiple with an EBITDA that is not yet reflecting that new level, we are seeing multiples that are lower than the historical numbers. On itself, these multiples should recover at some point.
Also, if you look at the share price of Ternium, which I think is your specific question, has held relatively well in comparison to our peers. Clearly, we have been taking certain actions in the past to try to enhance and to support the value of our company. This has been very clear. We have discussed also in the past, like, dividing the dividend payment in two parts or increasing or significantly increasing the dividend payment in relationship to the yield of the payout ratio, which now are quite high in comparison to our company. We continue to work in our front.
We have tried to perform our operation as a team in order to reduce or simplify our corporate structure. We have not been able, yet successful to do that. What I'm trying to say is that we have different alternatives. If we find a way to show that the company value is higher to what we have today, we are trying to do that, and we are trying to show the market that not only we care, but we work in that direction. Of course, there are some other things that will be difficult because we have some facts that or characteristics that are different from our peers, like the diversity of geographies that we have that will be, in some cases could be a plus, but in some others could be a minus.
We have that issue also to take into consideration.
In general, first the market have led Ternium at one point , and Ternium will continue to perform and to do the things that we have been doing up to now in order to try to increase our share value.
Okay, Alfonso, let me take the second part on the auto industry, and it was a very... I mean, there are several things in your question. The first thing to say, I think the OEMs and this is from our knowledge, but again, probably the automotive can speak better. They are putting more luxury or SUV because of the restrictions they have. Clearly they preferred selling SUV and luxury car and more luxury cars that are more have higher margins than producing the other type of cars. It's more of a restriction of all these inputs and semiconductors. They choose to do the higher margin products because they don't have enough capacity because of these restrictions. I think that's the normal.
If you see the automotive markets, the total production of automotive in the world, I'm saying, but it's similar in every market, it was around 103 million units. That's the total automotive production of the world. Last year, it was 78 million units. Although the same forecast of them was to do similar and the demand that we see in the market was to do similar to 2017. This year is 82 million units. Again, this difference is the restrictions and not the demand. I think in the U.S. and in Mexico, you see it also. In Brazil, we are seeing it also. There are not inventory in the dealers. There's no inventory. I think that it's.
I mean, once these supply chain issues, which as I said in my initial remarks, have seemed much harder to solve than what everybody thinks, including the OEMs. That's the first part. Aluminum versus steel, I don't see a big change in that. I mean, if you see the different reports that are out there, probably demand for steel for the automotive industry, it's gonna stay stable for the next couple of years until the new generation of batteries come forward. Then cost will be also the main issue for the industry. Demand for steel is again going to peak. I think in the long term, electric vehicles are going to be produced mostly from steel. That's what we are seeing.
I mean, the cost driven or the equation of cost driven, it's very clear there. I don't see a problem also there, Alfonso. I hope to this, I answer the question, but I don't know if I left something not answering, Alfonso.
No, that. Thank you, Máximo. Yes. Those are my concerns. What I think is that this could be a little bit more structural, the fact that OEMs are realizing that they can do a better margins by not, you know, producing affordable cars in the future. It has also to do with safety regulations, with emission regulations, which are very, very expensive for them, you know, to comply with. That makes, you know, the affordable car less interesting for them if there is no margin left. That is probably something that we will see in the future how this evolves. I see.
I don't.
Thank you, Máximo.
No, I totally agree with you, but I am not seeing that trend. I think that some of the OEMs are going to produce affordable cars. I mean, there is a demand and somebody's gonna do. If you see what Tesla is doing, I mean, they want to do the, of course, the high margin cars, Model X, Model S. Model 3 and the new one that they are talking about, they are much less expensive cars. They are much more steel usage on the other side. Somebody's going to build the demand. I mean, the world is needing the more affordable cars also.
I totally agree with you. I'm just concerned that it's gonna be Asian brands and Chinese brands coming, which are going to get the adapter. That a good part of that market. But we'll see how things go. Thank you, Máximo.
Also, it could be Alfonso, but they need to use steel melted and poured in the NAFTA to be USMCA compliant. I mean, customers-
That's a good point.
If we have Chinese, or we have American, or we have Japanese, for us, they are our customers.
Yeah, that's a good point. Thank you, Máximo.
Your next question is from the line of Caio Greiner with BTG Pactual.
Hello, good morning, everyone. Thank you. Just two quick questions from my side. First one on the situation in Argentina. I mean, we've seen some companies with operations in Argentina reporting what could be seen as unsustainably high results, largely because of the large gap between the official and the unofficial foreign exchange. Just two points here. I know it's mostly on the consumer side, so I just wanted to check with you, what kind of impact could we expect from this going forward for Ternium on an accounting perspective, if we should be aware of anything that's gonna be coming up for the third quarter or anything that we could have seen in the second quarter as well?
The second point, what kind of impact have you guys been sensing on steel demand in the country? I mean, have you seen any slowdown from your customers or anything that we should be on alert for? The second point here, just a follow-up to a previous question on Pesquería. I do remember that in the last conference call, I think Máximo mentioned that you guys expected to see incremental shipments, especially from Pesquería, but for the Mexico division, for the Mexico geography to be around 1 million tons for 2022. I just wanted to check if that's still the case where you guys have been looking at.
Because, I mean, you guys have been saying that commercial markets have been slow and certification process takes around one year, so we might not see that for 2022. Just wanted to check if we can get an updated estimate for that, for those incremental volumes for Mexico, and even if you guys have anything for 2023 as well, that could be helpful. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much, Caio. I start with the second part of the Argentinian question and let Pablo talk about accounting, your first part. The impact on the market. As I said before, we are not seeing yet any impact in the market. I mean, shipments from Ternium Argentina and steel demand is still at the same levels as last quarter and the quarter before. I mean, it has been very stable and at the very good levels, to be honest. Having said this, I mean, today it is important day. The new minister of economy is going to speak about the new economic plan. As I said in my initial remarks, the macroeconomic situation is very complicated.
We think that at the end there is going to be an effect on the demand in Argentina. When it's coming, I am not able yet to say. Again, today, we see very stable, our orders are very good, and our customers are selling everything, to be honest. We are very cautious. In spite of that, we are very cautious. Pablo, why don't you add the accounting part?
Okay, Caio, how are you? Let me try first to answer your question in a theoretical way, and then we can enter into what's happening to Ternium. If as you said, especially in some let's say customers or companies that are working in Argentina more in the retail side are able to buy at the official exchange rate and put in prices more related to the let's say the financial exchange rate, clearly there will be an expanded margin. This could be the case of some companies that you have been talking to. This is not our case.
We use the official exchange rate, which is, by the way, the only exchange rate that you can use to have the numbers both in selling our products and in buying our products. We have been buying all our raw materials, and that you know that are imported in Argentina using the official exchange rate, and similarly in the case of our sales in the market. We have not that specific situation. In any case, as you mentioned, if there is a devaluation, usually devaluation help initially to increase a little bit profitability because devalue the part that is not dollar denominated. In our case, in Ternium Argentina, around 30% of our cost is peso denominated.
You have a possible gain in relationship to that. As also Máximo mentioned this in the first part of answering your question, the uncertainty and the new plan or the consequences of the situation that we have today in Argentina, that if you consider that a possible solution would be to adjust the expenditure in the country and other things to control inflation could have an impact on volumes or demand in the market. Very uncertain situation at the moment, and we need to wait until what's going or will be the announcement of today. We will probably have a clarity on that.
Going back to the initial part of your question, this is not something that is impacting Ternium today.
Well, I go to the Pesquería question on incremental shipment, Caio. You're right. We said in the past. I think it was last year when we put, I think it was a conference call in November of last year or when we were ramping up the Pesquería project. To be clear, we are not going to achieve that objective that we put in that conference call. I think there are two things. One is all these huge imports that came at the end of last year. We were not expecting that. That was in the stock for the first part of this year. The second point is that the commercial market, it's worse than what we expected.
I mean, if you see the construction or the infrastructure GDP in Mexico is continuing to decline, although Mexico is growing as a whole in a country. Those two things we didn't expect. The certification process is something normal that we had taken into account. We were hoping to ramp up production to go first to commercial market and to substitute these imports that were coming, where we didn't have any capacity in the middle of last year to go, you know. That is the volume of the Pesquería plant. Today, the production is in line with the projection. I mean, the Pesquería HRC mill is running exactly as we projected.
The problem is the Churubusco facility, which of course is an older facility, so we are not producing the capacity we did expect. 2023, I think the volume will be there. I think that these certifications, part of that is going to be ready in 2023, so we are going to see incremental volumes from the industrial customers. The question is, if the commercial market is going to react, if construction infrastructure in Mexico is going to grow, and that's a big if. I think it will, but we have to see that in the coming months.
Thank you very much, Máximo and Pablo. Just to get a sense from you, do you guys expect any kind of increase in terms of shipments for Mexico this year? Could you maybe provide a guidance for 2023, an expectation for that you guys are currently working with, or is that still too far away to say anything? Thank you.
I think given the uncertainty of the moment, of the world's economy, not of the steel business, I think talking about 2023 is a little bit early today. We have our own projections, but they are internal ones. Of course, they are growing. To say a number publicly, I think we should wait a little bit more. I don't see any increase in 2022 or a little bit increase in 2022 in Mexico.
Thank you very much, gentlemen.
You're welcome, Caio.
Good. Next question is from the line of Thiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI.
Thank you. Máximo, just a quick follow-up, still on Pesquería and on Mexico volumes. The first question is, if we see a more adverse scenario in 2023 and considering you have all of the certifications you mentioned, are you going to prioritize Pesquería volumes over other sites given its lower costs or better margins? Does it make sense to think that way? The second question, specifically about the construction sector, which you expressed a caution there. You also mentioned that you see the inventory levels relatively low, and you expect some restocking to support volumes in the second half. Can you talk a little bit more about that and also about underlying demand, right?
Beyond this restocking, how do you see construction activity evolving in the next six to 12 months in Mexico? What are the key drivers that you're basically following for this bucket? Thank you.
Perfect, Thiago. Thank you for your question. Volume, we are prioritizing Pesquería. We are doing that today, and we are going to continue. I mean, the first mill is Pesquería, the second is the Guerrero plant, the mini mill. The first is the mini mill and Pesquería. Those are at full capacity today. Pesquería is at 85%, but it's a ramp-up curve we had, to be honest. The one that we are not prioritizing is Churubusco. That's the one that is going to take more or less volume according to the demand. That's the point. Construction industry, I mean, there are three drivers, two and a half drivers. The first driver is infrastructure. Infrastructure is not good, I mean, in Mexico. I don't expect that to improve in the near future.
The second is construction of residential homes and buildings of the private sector. It's also going down the last couple of years, to be honest. I do think that in some point, that's going to make a turn. When? It's hard to say. I think that you are seeing more people looking for increase in permits and trying to see if there are new projects. Again, it would take some months to see if this is really going to happen. The third one is the industrial sites. I mean, the construction of industrial sites. That's the only one that is doing very well in Mexico.
I mean, the thing that we talk a lot in this conference call about nearshoring, reshoring, all the north of Mexico is having a boom in building these industrial facilities. The industrial parks are building very much. All our customers and ourselves that we have a building unit, or our customer that makes structure for this industrial business, they have a backlog of several months, some say even at one year. That's the only thing that is really increasing in Mexico, which is a very good news because those facilities that are coming, some of them are going to consume steel in the future. They're customers of us, some of them. But the other two are not working, Thiago. I think that is the main issue in Mexico.
Inventories, as I said, in the distribution, I think they're low. They are low because of prices. I mean, prices started to decrease and they stopped buying. I think they have to do some restocking, if not in the third, in the fourth quarter. I think, I mean, we think that that's what is gonna happen. But again, it's not going to change a lot the volumes, I think. I mean, the main issue is construction really start moving not only in industrial buildings, but in private investment and the infrastructure investment. I hope I'd answer that your question, Thiago.
Yes, they're very clear, Máximo. Thank you.
Mm.
Your next question is from the line of Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.
Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. I have two questions here. The first, going back to your upstream, you know, slab capacity expansion plans in Mexico. I was just wondering if you could look to also expand your iron ore production as well, you know, to feed into that additional upstream capacity. The second question, in terms of pricing for US HRC in the U.S., you know, after that correction with prices near $800-$900 for a short ton, do you feel that we're near a bottom right now? You know, after that correction, have you started noticing your bids, you know, for your volume starting to pick up? Thank you, gentlemen.
Yeah, good question. Yeah. Thank you, Caio. Good questions. I mean, although we are analyzing our iron ore facilities and we are always looking for new projects with our reserves, I mean, we are far away from saying that we are going to open or have a new iron ore facility for the new upstream capacity. Probably what we are seeing is that we are going to buy iron ore for that facility. I agree with you. I mean, I think. I mean, it's very hard to say, but because it can take a little bit, some months more. But I think we are near the bottom, for sure, in hot rolling prices in the U.S.
We are seeing that with our sales in the U.S. To be honest, in the last couple of weeks, we have much more inquiries. People are starting to buy futures prices future. Although they are not indicative of anything, but they are higher than the actual price that we have today. I think that, as I said, demand in industrial customers and in construction in the U.S. is still very healthy. I mean, although everybody's talking about recession, I mean, still demand is very healthy there. Industrial demand is very healthy. Nearshoring is also happening in the U.S. I mean, we see this both sides of the border, I talk about construction.
I think that again, prices are coming to a bottom in some part of the month or in the next month. We are going to see a rebound or at least that they stay steady there. This is our vision, to be honest.
Perfect. Thank you very much, Máximo.
Your next question is from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.
Yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I just want to ask on working capital, you had a large use of working capital this quarter. If you could give any color on how you see that evolving throughout the rest of the year, the second half of the year, considering or assuming that prices remain relatively stable in terms of raw materials. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Jen. The uptick in working capital, most of the increase is because of the prices, to be honest. There was some increase in some slabs, but that's in volume. We had some increase in Brazil in the PCI carbon. Remember, PCI, we bought it from Russia 100%, and we had to change and buy, and we are buying now from Australia. To be honest, we make a higher inventory because we didn't know if the Australian PCI was going to work. The volume of the working capital, part of the increase of the working capital is not that much. I think it accounts for the 10% of the increase, mostly with prices. We see that this is coming down.
The next several, at least the next two quarters, we are going to see a decrease in the working capital.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
That concludes today's Q&A session for today. I will now hand the call back over to the CEO for any closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you all very much for participating in the call. As always, contact us if you have any feedback or additional question, and I hope to talk to everybody in the next conference call. Goodbye. Thank you.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.