Ternium S.A. (TX)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Oct 30, 2019

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ternium third quarter 2019 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. If you require any further assistance, please press star zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sebastián Martí. Please go ahead.

Sebastián Martí
Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director, Ternium

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastián Martí, and I am Ternium's Investor Relations Director. Ternium issued a press release yesterday detailing its results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2019. This call is complementary to that presentation. Joining me today are Mr. Máximo Vedoya, Ternium's CEO, and Mr. Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's CFO, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to your questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Thank you, Sebastián. Good morning to everyone, and thank you very much for participating in our conference call. As usual, I will go through some highlights of our business, and Pablo will describe our performance in the third quarter while he goes through our webcast presentation. At the end, we'll have a Q&A session. We reported a good EBITDA level in the third quarter with 16% margin. This was higher than what we had expected on the last conference call, in part because we had better results in Argentina, and Pablo will go through the details of this during the webcast presentations. In the first nine months of 2019, Ternium's EBITDA was $1.3 billion with a 16% EBITDA margin, equivalent to EBITDA per ton of $130. The good operating performance Ternium show in these first nine months of the year translated in earnings per ADS of $2.53.

Free cash flow generating has also been strong, reaching $513 million in the first nine months of this year. Net debt decreased to $1.5 billion as of the end of September, or just 0.9 times last 12 months EBITDA. Even though CapEx more than doubled to $748 million from the first nine months of the year, as we develop our expansion project at the Pesquería facility in Mexico. The works in Pesquería are progressing well as we continue to expect the new hot rolling mill to begin operations by the end of next year. Turning to our business in Mexico, we had a good performance in this market during the third quarter. As expected, we were able to increase our shipments in the country, which reached 1.6 million tons in the quarter. The Mexican market has not changed much from our last conference call.

Construction sector remains soft. Shipments to industrial customers have been relatively stable. Shipments in this market are going to decrease in the fourth quarter, mainly due to seasonality. About steel prices. On our last conference call, we expected prices in the NAFTA region to recover as they were bottoming out at the time. They did so briefly, but then resumed a downward trend and reached new lows in October. Steel prices are now at levels seen back in 2016, when cost of the main raw materials were lower than what they are today, a difficult environment for the steel industry. On the positive side, stocks in the value chain are not high, and many steel companies in the region have recently announced prices increases, a trend that may finally take steel prices to more reasonable levels.

We in Ternium are well-positioned for adverse price environments like this today. Our integrated facility in Mexico are based in electric arc furnaces, operating a mix of DRI and scrap, consuming energy that we produce with natural gas purchased at very convenient prices. Iron ore that were mined from our own mining operations in the country. These are very competitive facilities that can sustain good profitability in all kind of environments. Regarding our non-integrated facility in Mexico, this facility rely in part on slab provided from our Brazilian mill. The production of slabs in Brazil is currently having some pressure on margins as a result of weak global slab price environment and prices of raw material, particularly iron ore. In addition, local slab sales are currently weak as growth expectation in Brazil are taking longer to materialize than expected.

We are adjusting the Brazilian mill's production level to achieve an overall lower production cost, minimizing the use of iron ore pellets and purchase of external coke, as well as deploying other cost-cutting initiatives. In the fourth quarter, slab shipments to third party are going to decrease a bit more, mainly due to lower slab sales and the lower production I had just mentioned. Let's review Argentina now. The scenarios in Argentina changed materially from our expectations on last quarter's conference call. Following August primary elections, there was a significant fluctuation of the country's main macroeconomic variables, with a 26 exchange rate devaluation and an increase in inflation in the third quarter. This volatility affected Argentina steel market demand. As a result, our shipments did not continue recovering in the third quarter of 2019 as they did in the second quarter.

In this scenario, we expect shipments to remain at low level in the last quarter of the year as well. We had already adjusted our facility in Argentina to a lower level of demand, and we continue to adapt this operation to the increased level of uncertainty Argentina's economy is going through. Next step in this market will be a change of government administration in December. To have a better view of 2020, we will need to wait until the new government introduces a new set of policy to tackle the current economic situation. Wrapping up, we are currently in a challenging price environment that could begin to slowly turn better. In the meantime, we are working fast to adapt the economy to the current situation.

The fourth quarter of this year will show a lower margin than the third quarter, all in all, we expect to report a good full 2019. I am cautiously optimistic regarding 2020, if this price recovery gets some grip over the following months. I'll stop here and ask Pablo Brizzio to go ahead with the comments regarding the results of the third quarter. Thank you.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Thanks, Máximo. Good morning, and thank you again for participating in our conference call. Let's review the performance in the third quarter 2019, starting on page three in the webcast presentation. As you can see in the first chart, in the third quarter 2019, we reported EBITDA of $382 million, slightly lower sequentially, and above our expectation for the quarter back in July. Ternium EBITDA margin in the third quarter increased to 16% of net sales or $125 per ton. In Argentina, the market volatility related to the electionary process curbed steel demand during the period, as Máximo mentioned, and on the other hand, caused a significant depreciation of the local currency that had a positive impact on margins in Ternium, Argentina.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Pablo, sorry. I'm told there's a problem with the PPT version of the webcast presentation. Please, if you're connected via webcast, you can open the PDF version. That works. Okay?

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Good to know. Going back to the results of the company and regarding net income, in the third quarter of 2019, we reported $111 million or $0.48 per ADS. When compared to the second quarter 2019, earnings per ADS decreased $0.58, including non-cash foreign exchange related results that we will analyze with more details in the following slides, and an increase in the effective tax rate. Let's now review, in the next page, our shipment performance in each region. As you can see, shipments in Mexico in the third quarter increased 4% sequentially and 7% on a year-over-year basis, as we had expected. Looking forward, we anticipate a slight decrease in shipments in the fourth quarter, mainly due to seasonality and a domestic construction sector that remains soft. In the other markets region, in the upper right-hand chart, shipment decreased 26%.

The main driver behind the decrease were 307,000 tons lower slab sales to third parties as we increase internal shipments to our own operations in Mexico. Again, as we had expected. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, slab shipments to third parties are expected to decrease a little more. In the southern region, shipments remained relatively stable sequentially in the third quarter. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, shipments in the region are expected to remain at these low levels as volatility in the Argentine markets continue. Turning to page five. You can see in the first chart that the combination of these developments resulted in consolidated steel shipments in the third quarter decreasing 8% sequentially and 3% on a year-over-year basis.

Looking forward and considering what we have already discussed, we expect steel shipments in the fourth quarter to sequentially decrease, mainly due to the lower shipments in the Mexican market and lower slab shipments to third parties. Going now to realized prices in the upper right-hand side chart, you can see that average realized price continued decreasing in the third quarter of the year. Mainly driven by lower steel prices in Mexico and other markets. As Máximo mentioned, steel prices currently appear to be bottoming out. Ternium expects lower realized prices in Mexico in the fourth quarter due to the lag related to contract price resets. Now, the lower left-hand side chart shows the net sales decreased sequentially 11%, as a result of the 8% decrease in shipments together with the 4% decrease in consolidated revenue per ton.

Let's now turn to page six to review in more details the drivers of the EBITDA and net results in the third quarter of the year. Regarding EBITDA, the main changes were the decrease in shipments, as we just saw, partially offset by slight improvement in EBITDA per ton. During the third quarter of the year, cost per ton decreased sequentially, mainly as a result of lower purchased slabs and raw material costs, lower maintenance expenses, and lower labor costs. These changes include a net positive accounting effect on the cost per ton of Ternium's Argentine subsidiary, as you know, uses Argentine peso as a functional currency, and as a result of the 26% depreciation of the Argentine peso at the 12% inflation rate recorded in the third quarter. The overall cost per ton improvement was partially offset by the decrease in revenue per ton we have just saw.

As Máximo anticipated, in the fourth quarter 2019, we expect to report a lower EBITDA level, with a decrease in shipments and lower revenue per ton in Mexico, as well as a decrease in slab shipments to third parties, as already discussed. On the second chart, we can see the main factor behind the decrease in third quarter net income. In addition to a slight decrease in operating income, Ternium's net income was affected by the negative non-cash impact of the Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar on Ternium's Argentine U.S. dollar financial position. A lower equity in earnings of Usiminas, and a higher effective tax rate, mainly due to the non-cash effect on deferred taxes of the depreciation of the Mexican pesos that happened during the third quarter, compared to a low effective tax rate in the second quarter, when the Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar.

On page seven, you can see the drivers of the first nine months year-over-year changes in EBITDA and net results. The decrease in EBITDA in the first nine months was mostly related to the decrease in EBITDA per ton. The decrease in net income was mainly due to lower operating income, partially offset by better financial results. Let's turn now to page eight. This is the last page in the presentation, where we can see the performance of cash from operations, capital expenditure, free cash flow, and net debt. Free cash flow in the third quarter reached $244.54 million. In this period, the decrease in working capital contributed with $208 million. Capital expenditures were a strong $257 million, as we have already expected.

The capital expenditure should remain high in the fourth quarter of this year and during next year, considering our expected progress in the construction of the new mill in Pesqueria. All in all, Ternium net debt decreased to $1.5 billion at the end of September versus $1.7 billion at the end of June, equivalent to a comfortable level of 0.9 times last 12 months EBITDA. Okay. Thank you very much for your attention. We are now ready to take your questions. Please, operator, proceed with the Q&A session. Thanks.

Operator

If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Your first question comes from the line of Caio Ribeiro with Credit Suisse.

Caio Ribeiro
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Yes, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. First of all, I wanted to see whether you could provide some more color on what your expectations are for steel demand growth in Argentina in 2020, in light of the recent result of the elections. Secondly, on the cost side in this quarter, there was a pretty significant drop in labor and maintenance costs. I just wanted to see if you could provide a little bit more color on what drove that and whether this is sustainable going forward. Thank you.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Thank you very much, Caio. I'll take the first one, though it's a very difficult one to answer today. I mean, the election has just happened in Argentina. To be honest, there's still no economic plan that the new government has put together. At least nobody knows if there is. I'm sure they're working on one. Knowing what the demand will be in Argentina in 2020 is still a little bit difficult. We have prepared our operation and running our operation as if demand will continue in the levels they are today, which are levels below what we expected a couple of months ago. What we are preparing for is to stabilize our company

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

In this level of shipments that are around 150,000 tons every month, roughly, a little bit more maybe. That's what we think today of 2020. The second part?

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Yeah, I take it, Máximo, if you want. You're right, Caio, that we have a reduction in the cost, mainly driven by a couple of issues. One is, as you mentioned, labor cost and maintenance cost. You need to consider that not only in Argentina we have a devaluation of the currency, which was very significant, but we have also a devaluation of the currency in the other two main markets, which are Mexico and Brazil. The effect of that is positive, taking into consideration that part of our cost or our input cost is based in local currency. That clearly have a positive effect both in maintenance and labor cost.

In the case of specifically Argentina, the big devaluation and the way you need to account, taking into consideration inflation accounting and the functional currency, whenever you have a big devaluation, has always a positive impact in the numbers that you're drawing as cost. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, clearly, we need to see or to wait, which will be these effects coming forward. The most difficult one to predict will be the case of Argentina, where it's very difficult to, as Máximo also was mentioning, it's very difficult to know exactly which will be the situation by the end of the year, which of course is the end of the fourth quarter, where we need to report our new data.

Also I think it's important to confirm or reaffirm what Máximo was saying, that we continue working very hard to reduce our cost as much as we can. Clearly, though we have, if we want the help of the devaluation of the currency, clearly the results are showing that we are in the good direction in order to take this advantage of working very hard on reducing costs.

Caio Ribeiro
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Perfect. That's very clear. Thank you, gentlemen.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Thank you, Caio.

Operator

Next question comes from Jonathan Brandt with HSBC.

Jonathan Brandt
Analyst, HSBC

Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. I first wanted to ask you about the slab and the impact that that had on margins during the quarter. Obviously you sold less slab during the quarter, and then you bought less third-party slab. I'm wondering if you can sort of quantify how much that helped margins and make some comments around the cost level of your Brazil unit versus the cost of slab from third parties. I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how much more this could help margins in the future and trying to understand where margins could be in the next couple of quarters.

Secondly, just back on Argentina, I understand it's a difficult moment, but are you also preparing for maybe going back to the old Kirchner levels where there were price controls and import restrictions and things like that? Is that under your consideration at all? Thank you.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Okay. If you want, I take the first part, which was the cost-related issue.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

The easy one.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

The easy one. Yes, because, John, as you know, and I think we have mentioned this at the very beginning after acquisition of the facility in Brazil, that due to the reason that the Brazilian operation had a mix of sales to third parties and internally to our own operation, this will make our total level of shipment to fluctuate quite a lot depending on the mix of these sales. Clearly, the sales that we are doing to our own facilities in Mexico are not reflected as sales because they are consolidated. We are only reflecting the sales to third parties. Depending on this level of sales is the case that will be reflected in the result for the quarter.

That's why the significant reduction in slab shipments to third party, which does not mean that we reduce the total shipments out of Brazil, was reflected in an important decrease on the number. Also as Máximo mentioned, we are working very hard to adjust the cost structure or the production level of our Brazilian unit to cope with the reduction in margins due to the lower prices of slabs that are basically in line with the reduction on the prices of steel in the market, especially in the U.S. What we saw in the past, which is an increased level of mainly iron ore cost and coal cost. Both of them have been reducing later on.

We are expecting to see a sustained level of shipments in the coming year to third parties. We will continue to do that following the contract that we have and the shipments to the local market. Putting together the reduction in cost that Máximo was mentioning and the possible increase in prices, this should have a better perspective for next year.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

John, adding up to what Pablo is saying, the important thing of the facility in Brazil is that we have to be flexible to what is happening in the market. So if you remember 2018, we produced roughly 4.6 million tons in that facility, and we were expecting to reach this year 4.7 million, 4.8 million tons. That's not going to happen because what we had done in this last quarter, when conditions started going down because of the decrease in prices and the increase of the raw material, especially iron ore, is that we reduce our marginal cost production. That means that this year we are going to reach the 4.3 million tons, and we are now producing at an annually level of 4.1 million tons. This allow us to put in the blast furnaces much less pellet. The cost of the whole facility is going down.

Of course, in the cost sense, we are doing much more other things. That is one of the important things that we are doing. We try to adapt very quickly to the market conditions and leave the Brazilian facility to be very competitive against the world in producing slabs. This is the way. The second question, what's in Argentina and what's coming, and if we are prepared or not. As I said, we don't know what is coming in Argentina. There's a lot of speculations, and we don't want to speculate. It's clearly that if you look at the history of the last 10, 12 years, Argentina went through a series of economic policies which we were able to manage.

We think that if this comes, and we don't know if this is coming, we don't have any certainty, or we don't have any insight that some of the things that you mentioned are coming. If this is coming, we think we are prepared because we had had it in the past.

Jonathan Brandt
Analyst, HSBC

Okay, helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

Carlos De Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hello. Good morning, gentlemen. The first question.

A new Carlos.

Yeah, exactly. New last name. If you could provide an update on the projects in Mexico, and if I may ask you. There were some news that a competitor of yours in Northern Mexico may be up for sale or for a joint venture. How would that fit your portfolio in the country and overall in Ternium? Then if I may just follow up on some of the questions on Ternium Brazil, can you give us a range of the level of profitability at which that plant is operating right now, which, if I understood correctly, Máximo, it is running around 4.1 million tons per year as we speak. Thank you.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Okay. A lot of question, Carlos. I'll try to answer them. The first one was about prices in Mexico, I believe.

Carlos De Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yes.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

No?

Carlos De Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

The projects.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Project in Mexico are going well. Painting line is already running. We started a little bit later than what we thought. We did want it to start it in July. It started in August, September. The curve is much higher. Today we had produced almost the same as we expected in the business plan, because it's producing much faster than what we thought. Galvanized line is coming online as we speak. We didn't have yet the first coil, but it's coming in any moment. The big one, the hot strip mill, our plan is to start it in the 1st of December. We are very confident that we can start it earlier, because in that case, I think we are ahead of the planning. If everything goes well, we will start it a little bit earlier.

Regarding to your second question about what is happening with a competitor of ours. Well, as you know, Ternium has a long history of growing through organic growth and acquisitions. This is always part of the strategy. Our area of interest is in the Americas. Any opportunity that arise over there, we will always analyze that opportunity. Now, having said that, about a particular company, we don't have anything to report at this time regarding any potential transaction. Regarding the fit, because you also asked about the company and the fit that this company will have to us. Again, I cannot speak in anything particular about these companies in general. Let me give you a view on the subject of what is my opinion. There are two trends that are going on, that is happening in the steel world market.

The first one is that the steel global market is shifting from a global perspective to be more regionalized. That's something that is happening in the last years. I think all these dumping cases and 232s, all these safeguards are going in this direction. If you take the share of international trade steel, in the last 10 years, declined from 36% to almost 26%. It's a huge decline. The steel market is getting regional. The other thing, or the other trend, or the other challenge of the industry is the overcapacity. I mean, the overcapacity is still here. It has been here for the last several years. For those two things, consolidation is a good thing. If somebody of the region pursues this company, it could be a good thing for the steel industry in general.

My opinion is that it should fit some of the participants in the region.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Carlos, your third question was related to Brazil, I believe.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Yes.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

The production level that we are expecting to have.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

The profitability. Yeah, the profitability. If you can give like a sense of the profitability.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Yeah. Sorry, there was a noise when you were asking your question, and it was difficult to understand. Yeah. The profitability with respect to the Brazilian operation, as you know, has been very positive in last year in relationship to the very good prices that we saw in the slab market, coupled with a reduction level or reduced level of raw material cost. Lately, we have the opposite situation, which was a reduction in the price level and an increase, probably unexpected, and if you want, a normal increase in some raw material, meaning basically iron ore, that put some pressure on margins. We are positive in the sense that through the initiative that we are taking and the changes in the environment of prices and both of steel and raw material, the profitability of this company will go back to more normal levels.

Clearly not at the levels we saw in 2018, because the price level there was, as you very well know, very high, but at a very profitable level, and more normalized levels.

Carlos De Alba
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you, Máximo and Pablo.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

You're welcome.

Operator

Next question comes from Thiago Lofiego with BBI.

Thiago Lofiego
Analyst, BBI

Thank you, gentlemen. Máximo, you mentioned you expect demand to remain at current levels in Argentina. Just wondering, why not expect a retraction on demand in 2020? What would be your rationale for this flattish demand outlook? Second question, still on the demand front, when do you expect construction activity and infrastructure projects to begin to rebound in Mexico? What's your demand outlook for 2024 for Mexico as well? Thank you.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Thank you, Thiago. Yeah, the two questions, Argentina and retraction of the demand. To be honest, demand in Argentina is very low. If you remember, Argentina went through a crisis starting, I think in September, October of last year, and shipments were reduced dramatically. When we did our expectations a couple of months ago, we thought that the demand was going to increase to levels of 170,000, 175,000 tons in the domestic market, only in Argentina. I'm not counting some export that Argentina do. 170,000, 175,000 tons. Today we are in 150,000. This is a very low level. It's very hard to see, except for December and January, which are seasonably low month, to see a demand less than that in Argentina. Remember that in the last crisis, 2002, 2003, a long time ago, the lowest month was a little bit higher than 100,000.

It's very difficult to go below this number, I think. That's why we are expecting that demand should stay at this level. Mexico.

Thiago Lofiego
Analyst, BBI

Máximo, if I may, just on the number you mentioned. The lowest level in the last crisis was 100,000 tons, you mentioned, correct?

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

I think the last crisis was in 2003, remember.

Thiago Lofiego
Analyst, BBI

Yeah.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

More than 15 years ago. It reached one month, I think 90,000 tons. From that, it started to increase again. There is a level of consumption that should stay there. Argentina is a country that some of the markets have continued to grow. Energy, Vaca Muerta, all that investment, I don't think the new government is going to destroy. It doesn't make any sense. Agriculture, that is another sector that we do business a lot, is also going to continue. Argentina is very competitive in that. There is a level of demand that is there, that although the crisis will continue, it's difficult to see it lower than that, at least in the steel consumption, I'm saying.

Thiago Lofiego
Analyst, BBI

Mm-hmm. That's clear.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Mexico. Our expectation is that consumption in Mexico will stay the same in 2020. If you see the last report that the World Steel did a couple of weeks ago in our annual meeting, the board members of the World Steel ended up with this outlook of the Mexican steel consumption. I think it was a growth of 1% only, mainly flat. There are some triggers that I think could increase this demand. The first of all is what will happen with infrastructure. Infrastructure has been declining for the last six or seven years, the investment in infrastructure from the government. The new government in Mexico, well, it's not that new, the new government is realizing this, it's trying to work with the private sector to see if there can be an incremental investment in infrastructure in Mexico, which is much needed.

I don't know if all of us are going to be able to do this in 2020, for sure in 2021. If we're able, demand should increase in 2020 a little bit more. The second thing that is very positive is the new NAFTA deal, the USMCA. If we are able, as a region, to approve the USMCA this year, which I think there are still possibilities that can happen, that could also be a trigger to increase consumption of steel in Mexico and in the North American region. For us, as I said again, we expect the demand to be almost flat, but there are some positive things that we are looking at that can increase that number.

Thiago Lofiego
Analyst, BBI

Great. Thank you, Máximo.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Oh, you're welcome.

Operator

Next question comes from Timna Tanners with BOA Merrill Lynch.

Timna Tanners
Analyst, BOA Merrill Lynch

Hey, good morning. I want to ask two questions. One is, given that, as you point out, your balance sheet is looking really steady, strong cash flows, even with the increase in CapEx. I know M&A is a sensitive topic, maybe you could just remind us about your priorities for capital allocation. Pesquería is a big project, what other types of things are you thinking down the road, what other priorities for cash? The second question was, just in the case that prices don't recover much from current levels, absent, obviously, currency moves, can you talk us through a little bit more what kind of triggers you can pull on cost savings and what kind of other specific plans you might have there? Thanks a lot.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Yeah. Thank you. Let me start with the CapEx allocation and what else. As you know, we are undergoing this expansion project in Pesquería. We said it before, the CapEx of 2019 will be around $1 billion, and 2020 will be around $800 million. Our expectation in 2021 is back to our normal levels that are around $450 million, $500 million, to sustain the production and make improvements. Today, we are not thinking of other things else. We don't have the plans to do anything else, any new investments today. As I said, we analyze a lot of things, but we don't see today the need to increase or to invest in other areas except the normal CapEx.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Take into consideration we are investing in Colombia.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Yeah. We are investing in a new greenfield. It's a little bit smaller, it's $90 million, in Colombia too. Second question, if prices don't go up, is the question clear? Sorry?

Timna Tanners
Analyst, BOA Merrill Lynch

Just what triggers you can pull in terms of further cost savings in absent devaluation and assuming not a lot of change to prices.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Yeah. We are going to continue making more competitive our operation. The new Pesquería facility, remember, it's a very competitive one that is not only going to substitute some of the imports that are coming to Mexico, but we are also going to substitute things that we buy because we don't have enough capacity, and we are going to close some of the lines, the very old ones, that's Molino Uno, that's what it calls, that has much higher cost than the Pesquería new facility. Our strategy is to continue working in making our operations much more competitive. We think they are very competitive considering all our competitors, we are going to continue working in that sense regardless of the prices. If prices go up, we are also always working on how competitive, how productive our operations are.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Clearly, the new Pesquería facility is a trigger to continue or moving forward our goal or target of sustaining margins in the range that we were working and we will continue to work. To couple up with what Max was saying, the cost savings is for us is key. It's part of what we do and what we are looking for.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Remember that also the new Pesquería facilities enables us to produce products that we are not able to produce before. These products are going to be produced with less cost because all the Pesquería facilities has much lower cost than the old one, but also has high value-added prices. There are high value-added products, more sophisticated products that has better prices. We are going to increase both, or decrease cost and increase, not prices, relative prices, the amount of extra that we can charge these more sophisticated steels.

Timna Tanners
Analyst, BOA Merrill Lynch

Got you. Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Once again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We have a question from Alexander Hacking with Citi.

Alexander Hacking
Analyst, Citi

Yeah, good morning. Just following up on the projects. Can you remind us when the new galv line and the new paint line at Pesquería will get to their full production rates? What quarter do you estimate that would be? Second question, I assume that you have some annual contracts in Mexico or some annually priced contracts in Mexico with the automakers. I guess my question is what % of your total sales in Mexico is on annual contracts? Thank you.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

The second first is very simple. Very, very few. We don't have much annual prices. We don't like it. We have very, very few. We have prices on annual basis, but change regarding different indicators. We don't have a fixed annual price. Very, very little. It's not very significant to our operation. Projects. When are the projects coming? The painting line is already producing. I think it's going to be producing by the end of this year at full capacity. Galvanized line at full capacity will be producing the first quarter. As I said, the hot strip mill will take a little bit longer, but it's going to start at the end of November, and we'll start producing regular coils by February.

Pablo Brizzio
CFO, Ternium

Of 2021.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Of 2021.

Alexander Hacking
Analyst, Citi

Thanks.

Operator

Once again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We do not have any telephone questions at this time. I will turn the call over to the presenters.

Máximo Vedoya
CEO, Ternium

Okay. Thank you very much for your participation today. Don't hesitate to contact for any additional support or comments. Goodbye, and thank you very much to all again.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.