Good morning. My name is Jessa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Second Quarter 2018 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Thank you. Mr. Sebastián Martí, you may begin your conference.
Thank you. Hi, good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastián Martí, and I'm Ternium's Investor Relations Director. Ternium issued a press release yesterday detailing its results for the second quarter of 2018. This call is complementary to that presentation. Joining me today is Mr. Maximo Vedoya, Ternium's CEO, and Mr. Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance in the second quarter of 2018. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to your questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.
Thank you, Sebastián, good morning to all of you. Thank you very much for participating in our call today. I would like to make some brief comments about our performance and the current state of our main markets. Then I'll ask Pablo to discuss or to describe our second quarter's results. After that, we'll open up the call to your questions. We reported record EBITDA in the second quarter, mainly driven by higher realized prices in several of our markets. We were partially offset by higher costs and lower shipments as we anticipate. In the first half of 2018, Ternium steel shipments reached 6.8 million tons, and EBITDA increased 51% year-over-year, reaching $1.5 billion on a 24% EBITDA margin. Ternium Brasil has been an important factor in this good performance, and we continue working on integrating this top-of-the-line facility into Ternium's industrial system.
We expect to be able to continue showing a strong EBITDA level in the third quarter of the year, in line with that of the first half of 2018, with healthy margin despite lower shipments in Mexico and Argentina. Net debt continued to trend down in the second quarter, a quarter on which we made our annual dividend payment in May. This was possible due to a $415 million free cash flow generation in the quarter. At the end of June, our net debt stood at only one-time last 12 months EBITDA. Let me now make some comments about the latest development in our main market, starting with Mexico, and a little bit comment of the U.S. also.
After the introduction in the U.S. of trade measures against imports of steel under Section 232 in the first quarter of the year, different countries and trade blocks around the world announced retaliatory tariff against U.S. Also, several of them introduced or are currently analyzing safeguards to prevent redirection of exports from affecting their steel markets. In the case of Mexico, the government announced both retaliatory against the U.S. and safeguard tariffs shortly after Mexico lost its exemption to Section 232 in June of this year. The way the U.S. applies Section 232 is very harsh, with a majority of exporting countries affected by a 25% tariff, and a few others, like Brazil, negotiated quotas with hard tops.
This, together with a rather healthy local steel demand, provoked a sharp increase in prices, with an unusually high steel price gap between the U.S. market and those in the rest of the world. This steel price premium in the U.S. could narrow to more normal levels in the future if trade measures change over the following quarters, with more countries being excepted from Section 232. This is uncertain at this point. Going to Mexico, realized steel prices in Mexico also increased, although not as much as they did in the U.S. market. Demand in Mexico remains at good levels, even though it was impacted in some way by these trade frictions I mentioned before and the election process in the country, both of which brought significant volatility to the Mexican peso exchange rate. This has abated after the election.
The industrial market keep on showing resilience in the second quarter, while construction market continue to have a weaker performance, which we anticipate will persist in the third quarter. Seasonality in the automobile, home appliance, and HVAC industry will also affect volumes in Mexico in the third quarter. The trade situation in the world continue to be volatile. I believe a good aspect of what is happening is that the issue of unfair trade, overcapacity, and subsidies in China, something that we have been talking about for a while, is an issue that today is very present on most of policymakers minds around the world. Turning now to Argentina. Although we expected to see an impact in Argentina economy from the recent drought and subsequent flooding that significantly affect the yield of the last crop in the country, the effect ended up being much stronger than everybody anticipated.
In addition, a sudden change in international financial market confidence in the country, together with less favorable financial conditions for emerging markets in the world, strongly affected the value of local currency in the second quarter, bringing significant volatility to local financial markets and also affecting economic growth. The peso exchange rate stabilized after the Argentina government took several measures to tackle the situation, but interest rate ended up at very high levels. The higher financial cost took a toll on local steel demand, which translated in a subsequent decrease in shipments in this market in the second quarter of the year, and most probably a subsequent decrease, although smaller, during our third quarter. We believe better competitiveness conditions for the industrial sector, together with a positive performance of agribusiness sector, should support a recovery of steel demand in Argentina over the medium term.
The Brazilian economy seems to be in a process of recovery. Apart from recent issues like the truck strike and the change in confidence levels related to the election process in the country. This should also help Argentina recover from today's stable but weak demand situation, as Brazil is number 1 destination of Argentina manufacture export. Okay, I want to be very brief today so we can have more time to Q&A. Please, Pablo, go ahead with the highlights of our performance in the second quarter and in the first half of the year.
Thanks, Máximo. Good morning, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. Let's review the performance of the second quarter of this year. Please, let's start with page three on today webcast presentation. As Máximo anticipated, our performance continues to be strong in the second quarter of the year. We record EBITDA of $788 million, higher than the EBITDA in the first quarter, and significantly higher compared to the same quarter last year, as forecasted in our last conference call. Looking at Ternium's EBITDA per ton on the lower left side, and EBITDA margin on the higher right side, we reported a margin of $237 per ton in the second quarter, or 25% of net sales. As revenue per ton increased more than operating cost per ton. As for net income in the second quarter, we reported $338 million, equivalent to earnings per ADS of $1.66.
This means a $0.21 sequential decrease, due mainly to higher net financial expenses and effective tax rates, mostly related to the exchange rate volatility in this period, as we will discuss later. Partial offset by higher operating income. We now will review our performance in the Mexican market in the following page. In the second quarter, Ternium net sales increased 9% sequentially due to a 13% increase in revenue per ton, partially offset by a 3% decrease in shipments. We anticipate volumes in Mexico to decrease again in the third quarter as a result of continued weakness in the construction market, together with slight seasonal decrease in the automotive, home appliances, and HVAC industries, as Máximo anticipated. Let's review now our performance in the southern region on page five of the presentation. In the second quarter, Ternium net sales decreased 7% sequentially, mainly reflecting lower shipments.
Also, as Máximo said, the economic activity in Argentina suffered a setback in the second quarter of the year. A strong impact in the agricultural sector of adverse weather condition and financial market volatility, together with significant increase in interest rates, results in lower steel shipments. In the third quarter, we expect certain additional retreat in the level of steel shipments in Argentina given the ongoing tight monetary stance. Let's now move to the following page in order to see the performance of the other markets. In the second quarter, Ternium net sales increased 7% sequentially due to a 19% increase in revenue per ton, partially offset by a 10% decrease in shipments. Shipments decrease as a result of lower slab shipments to third parties. This is something that fluctuates every quarter as the contract slab volume vary from quarter to quarter.
The increase in revenue per ton is the result of higher steel prices and a lower participation of slabs in the sales mix. On page seven, we can see the consolidated net sales. The combination of all issues discussed resulted in a 6% sequential increase in net sales, with a 12% higher revenue per ton at 6% lower shipments. Please turn now to page eight to review the drivers of the second quarter EBITDA. As already discussed, shipment decreased 6% sequentially, and steel revenue per ton increased 12%. On the other hand, cost per ton increased as well, mainly reflecting higher purchase slab costs. We expect to continue showing strong EBITDA levels in the third quarter with healthy margins and lower shipments. Let's review now the drivers of the EBITDA in the first half of the year on page nine.
On a year-over-year basis, steel demand and prices increased in the first half of this year in all Ternium markets. In addition, the consolidation of Ternium Brasil slab sales in 2018 contributed to 1.5 million tons year-over-year increase in shipments. Cost per ton increased mainly reflecting higher raw material and purchased slab cost. If we move now to analyze the second quarter net income on page 10, you will see there was an $84 million sequential decrease in net income in the second quarter. Higher effective tax rates and net financial expenses were mostly related to foreign exchange rate fluctuation, mainly the Mexican peso and the Argentine peso.
The Mexican peso, almost 8% appreciation in the first quarter and close to 8% depreciation in the second quarter, produced significant sequential changes on deferred taxes, as well as in foreign exchange result on a net short local currency position in Ternium Mexican subsidiary. The Argentine peso, 7% and 30% depreciation in the first and second quarter, produced increasing negative non-cash impact on Ternium Argentina U.S. dollar financial position. As Ternium Argentina used the Argentine peso as its functional currency, such depreciation also had a negative impact on certain derivative instruments into to cover for Ternium Argentina subsidiaries' local currency denominated financial debt. Let's review now the net income in the first half on page 11. On a year-over-year basis, there was a $168 million increase in net income in the first half of 2018 on strong operating income.
Effective tax rate and net financial expenses increased year-over-year, again reflecting foreign exchange rate fluctuations. The Mexican peso appreciated 15% and depreciated 1% in the first half of last year and this year. The Argentine peso depreciated 4% last year and 35% during the first half of this year. On page 12, we can see the free cash flow in the second quarter, which reached a very strong $450 million in the period. Capital expenditure started to pick up as expected. Our guidance for 2018 is for capital expenditure within a range of $600 million-$650 million. Working capital showed a moderate increase in the quarter, mainly reflecting the pass-through of higher costs, partially offset by lower inventory levels. Let's now review the free cash flow in the first half on the next page.
Free cash flow was $505 million in the period, including a working capital increase of $351 million. Among the reasons behind the increase in working capital, as you can see in the box, are the effect of higher cost of slabs and raw materials on our inventory value and the effect of higher steel prices on our receivables. On the other hand, physical inventories of steel products decreased. We will continue working on optimizing working capital across Ternium. Going now to page 14, you can see an evolution of Ternium cash flow from operations, free cash flow, capital expenditure, and net debt over the last five quarters. Cash flow from operations and free cash flow have been exceptional in the second quarter of this year. We expect to continue showing cash flow strength in the third quarter, in line with our EBITDA expectations.
Capital expenditure should accelerate further during the next quarter as we advance in the new projects in our industrial center in Pesquería. As Máximo mentioned, Ternium net debt decreased to $2.4 billion at the end of June, reflecting the strong free cash flow in the period less the dividend paid, representing a comfortable level of one time EBITDA. I think with that, I will finish my prepared remarks. We are now ready to answer your questions. Please, operator, proceed with the Q&A session. Thanks.
Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad, and we will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Thiago Lofiego from Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the call. I have two questions. The first one about your guidance for the third quarter. You mentioned that you expect continued healthy EBITDA generation levels in the third quarter. Could you maybe give us a little bit more color on that? Because what you mentioned in the release is that you expect lower shipments, which is totally understandable. Just realize pricing dynamics, and then also cost dynamics into the third quarter. What's your view there? Do you think it's possible that you repeat the EBITDA per ton levels that you delivered in the first half of 2018? Just thinking about the average level of the EBITDA per ton, do you think that's repeatable for the second half? The second question, about the demand deterioration in Argentina. Could you also give us some more color on that?
What is the magnitude of the demand decline that you're seeing in the country, and what's your fresh forecast in terms of shipments growth in Argentina for 2018? Maybe if it's not growth anymore, what's the new number there that you have in mind for shipments in Argentina for this year? Thank you.
Thank you, Thiago. I start with the second one and then go back to the one of the EBITDA. The decrease in the demand we are expecting in Argentina or of our shipments year against year, it's around 4%. It's still a number that we are analyzing and calculating. The good news is that for the last month, we see that the demand has stabilized. It's not decreasing anymore as what happened in one month ago. Stabilized, and we are seeing a recovery in some of the sectors that with the devaluations, are much more competitive now and starting to see growth in some of these regions. We are expecting in our forecast that the year will stay at this level. We could have good news at the end of the year because of this, because of the level we are putting.
We are cautious in saying that we are going to decrease the 4%. Going to EBITDA, I let Pablo answer that.
Hi, Thiago. Regarding your question.
Pablo, I'm sorry.
Yeah.
Before we go into the second question, just to clarify and to understand if we're talking about the same variable here. In the beginning of the year, that same 4% decrease that you're talking about right now was something like a 10% increase. Is that the same?
Was 9% increase. Exactly.
Okay. Now the 9% increase turned into a 4% decrease. Okay.
Decrease. Again, with a level that it's in the minimum for the last 6 months of the year, but can have some increase. We want to be cautious.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
Going back, Thiago, to your question on the guidance. Clearly, we believe that we will have a strong EBITDA margin and EBITDA generation during the third quarter. Due to certain uncertainties that Maximo described in the opening remarks regarding the trade issues in North America, reflection of that on prices in every market, and the impact of something that will happen in Argentina from now on, which is inflation accounting that we will need to do starting July 1st. There will be some uncertainty on the number. Going back to what you said, we believe that we will be able, and this is the guidance that we're giving, that we will be able to sustain the EBITDA generation that we have on average during the first half of the year.
If you want a little more clarity on the numbers, clearly this is the number that we believe the company will have with the cautious of the uncertainties that we mentioned. This should be a good number to refer to.
Okay. Pablo, just again to confirm, I think the audio is not very good. You mentioned third quarter, you can sustain the average EBITDA generation that you had in the first half of 2018. Not EBITDA per ton.
Yeah.
EBITDA.
Yeah. EBITDA.
I'm not sure. Okay.
That's correct.
All right. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Brandt from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my call, and congratulations on the results. Just coming back to Argentina. I understand now you're looking at the 4% decrease. You mentioned that you'd expect it to return to growth in the medium term. I'm wondering if that means 2019 or if it means later, what sort of rebound we could potentially expect next year? Secondly, just coming back to the trade tariffs, et cetera. Would you say that Ternium has benefited from these trade tariffs just in terms of higher steel prices in Mexico? If we were to see sort of a normalizing of these trade tariffs and trade issues, how much do you think U.S. steel prices and Mexican steel prices could come down on the back of that?
Lastly, follow-up, if I could just ask on the IAS 29, was this an auditor's recommendation or mandate, or was this something that you decided to put in? Thank you.
Okay, If you want, John, let me start by the last part of your question, Maximo will follow on on the first part. It's not something that we have decided, it's something we will have to do. It's already a decision by the auditors and the people that regulate these issues. In the case of the SEC under US GAAP, was already fine a month ago, That was followed by IFRS people that confirmed that from July 1st, this will be a mandatory adjustment for companies under IFRS. Yes, we will have to do it.
John, with respect to the other two questions. Argentina, yes, we are expecting this growth to come in 2019. Again, we are seeing some different sectors of the economy that could increase earlier than that because we are seeing some more movement in some of the different sectors, especially in construction. We don't want to put that in our estimate yet. We see growth in 2019. Regarding prices in Mexico and the U.S., clearly, the prices in the U.S. increased much more than prices that increased in Mexico. If you remember, prices in the North American region usually were the same or follow each other quite well. When we start talking about the 232, and then it was clearly that the 232 was coming, prices in the U.S. increased much higher than prices in Mexico.
What will happen if the 232 decreases and makes some exception with Europe or NAFTA? Clearly the prices in the U.S. can come back a little bit, but I think that what will happen is that Mexico prices and the U.S. will be again stick together as they used to be. I don't think that whatever happened with 232 will have a big impact in Mexico's prices today.
Just to follow up on that, if 232 is relaxed or the NAFTA renegotiations get worked out, you think it'll more be a function of U.S. prices coming down rather than Mexican prices increasing?
I don't know. I think Europe will have a bigger effect than NAFTA, because there is also talkings in the U.S. and Europe. Europe was a big exporter to the U.S. Mexico was not a big exporter to the U.S. I think prices in the U.S., if the 232 is open to Europe, or Europe is taken away from the 232, that could bring a decrease in the prices in the U.S., but not in Mexico.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Maximo, is it possible to quantify or provide a range as to how much you expect shipments in Mexico and Argentina to decline in the third quarter? We saw the southern region shipments increase year-on-year 18% in the first quarter, and then were basically flat, 1% up in the second quarter, year-on-year. So how do we align the 4% decline in consumption of steel in Argentina for the year with the southern regional shipments that you expect in the third quarter? Should we see a very dramatic decline in the third quarter year-on-year or more of a mild, small, smooth one? Then in Mexico, if you can also give us a range or a better sense of what you're seeing, that would be great.
Then talking about Ternium Brasil, is it possible to mention how many slabs is the company sending to either Mexico or Argentina from Brazil to roll in other Ternium facilities? Also, any comments that you can provide as to maybe targets in savings in Ternium Brasil, and how you are progressing versus those, and if you expect those to accelerate in the second half of the year or in 2019? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you very much, Carlos. The decrease we are seeing for the third quarter, it is in the small single digits. It is a little bit in Argentina, what we saw, and rather similar in Mexico. To give a guidance, that is small single digits. Sales of Brazil to Mexico mainly. We are not shipping today from Brazil to Argentina, although our plan is in the future to do so. Those change quarter-to-quarter. We do have a base of the shipments from Brazil to Mexico, that it is around 1 million tons every year. That is something that we will most likely do always, because are the high-end slabs that we are integrating Brazil to our facilities in Mexico to our customers.
They require certifications, they require a big process, and I think it is a very value-added for our customers to have all our products that are shipped to them from our steel. We control the whole chain. Depends on the opportunities. Sometimes we ship more, and sometimes we will ship less. For example, in the second Q, the shipments were more than 500,000 tons. In the third Q will be probably 350,000 tons. That is more or less the real. The base is 1.2 million tons.
All right. Thank you. Finally, if I may squeeze another question. How do you see prices in Mexico? If you could remind us the lagging effects that you have on your contract prices and how much is spot and how much is on the contract and the lag, because clearly that would be important to gauge the realized pricing in the country.
Okay, Carlos.
Your question was on savings. Let me answer that first. If not, we will miss that question.
Thank you.
Clearly, the operation in Brazil is performing extremely well. We are working very hard in order to take advantage of that opportunity that we got by integrating that facility to the Ternium structure. Clearly we are doing that. You know that we are working in trying to increase the volumes of that facility. Unfortunately, you know that there were some issues Maximo mentioned, like the truckers' strike-
Strike
in Brazil that, though we were able to continue producing, put some pressure on the levels. We are working very hard on doing that. Clearly the results that we are obtaining from Ternium Brasil are extremely good and are helping the performance on the company. We believe that we can sustain and increase that in the coming quarters.
Regarding prices, I think the question was prices in Mexico, isn't it, Carlos?
Right. Correct.
On contract price. Yeah. More or less 50% of our sales are on contract, 50% are on a spot basis. Most of that spot is to regular customers. Contract, we have different type of contracts: monthly, three months, six months, and in some cases even yearly contracts. The lag will be kind of three months in average. That's an average and it change a little bit depending on the time.
All right. Thank you very much, Maximo and Pablo.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Marcos Assumpção from Itaú. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the strong results. First question is on the EBITDA per ton. It reached $237 in this quarter. Can you provide us a little bit of color on how much was EBITDA per ton if you were to exclude the CSA or the impact of the Brazilian operation? The second question is on strategy, if Maximo could talk a little bit about that. Leverage is already down to one times net debt to EBITDA, and it will likely continue to decline given the strong results expected for the third quarter. What are the options for the use of the free cash flow that you're starting to generate strongly going forward? Thank you.
Okay, Marcos. Let me start by your first question. As you know, we are not disclosing numbers on the different operations. Clearly, the contribution of Ternium Brasil was important and was something that we anticipated when we announced the acquisition of the facility, that we were the ones that would take advantage of the margin of producing slab instead of buying them into the market. We are not only having the advantage of the gap between slabs and hot-rolled coil, but also we are having the benefit of the gap between raw materials and slab cost. Clearly this is working very well. Clearly this is working probably a little better than expected, but this is already an integral part of Ternium.
We are, of course, prioritizing our obligations under the supply contracts, and the rest is going to our own facilities, that as Máximo explained, make a variation on the total level of shipments, depending on the sequencing of the sales to the contract that we already have. Clearly it's an important one, but it's already an integral part of Ternium.
Regarding the strategy, Marcos, several things. First, you know we are starting two new projects, almost greenfield projects. The one in Colombia and the new one in Pesquería that will require us for the next two years to increase CapEx. Part of this, the leverage is going there. The second, we are going to continue reducing debt. We are probably continue to paying dividends as we have been, and you have seen in the last five years that dividend has been increased. The fourth, you know we always are looking for opportunities. We don't have nothing concrete today, and we cannot comment on anything. That's a thing that for the last several years we have been doing, and when the opportunity arise, we can be ready to do it. The first three things I said are today the strategy of what we are doing.
Okay. Perfect, Máximo. Just to follow up, Pablo, on your first answer. For sure, EBITDA for the regular business ex CSA is above the average. Right? It's at the level that probably Ternium never saw on a sustainable basis. Do you think that this time will be different, or we could see we are on a peak level in terms of profitability for the industry and for the company, at least in this short cycle?
Marcos, you know what we believe and where we believe our margin should be on a sustainable basis. You know that we tend to work with an EBITDA margin of above 15%, and traditionally this was up to 20%. This was the history of our company. Clearly, due to many different reasons, we were able to increase that margin during the last couple of years, and especially during this year. Among other things, clearly the pricing issue that we are seeing worldwide, especially in the North American region. Also the possibility of taking advantage of the margin between producing slab and buying slabs, that clearly is helping. We understand that we will be able to sustain a level of EBITDA margin around this level that we showed you in the first half of the year, in the coming quarter.
Clearly, if the question is, "Will you be able to sustain 25% EBITDA margin in the coming years?" Clearly we cannot promise that, or we cannot say that because there are certain things that prevent us from making such a comment. The only thing that we can say, that we will continue working on trying to have the best EBITDA margin possible, and clearly above our competitors. That's clearly the case. In the very short run, which is next quarter, you already heard what we said, and we will be able to sustain a very strong EBITDA margin.
Perfect, Pablo. Thank you very much.
You're very welcome.
Your next question comes from the line of Rodolfo Angele from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, guys, thanks. My questions have been answered. Thank you.
Thank you, Rodolfo.
Thank you, Rodolfo.
Your next question comes from the line of Renan Criscio from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. Thanks for the opportunities. The bulk of my questions were answered already, but just if you can provide the updated guidance of CapEx for this year, for the next one, that'd be helpful. Also my second question is if there is any update on the situation with the potential acquisition of a minority stake in Siderar from the government. Is there any new discussion on this? If that's the case, would you consider buying the stake?
Thank you, Renan. CapEx. 2018 will be around $650 million. 2019 will probably be a little over $1 billion. This is because the big chunk of the Pesquería project will come in that year. That's the main increase that we will have. Regarding Argentina, I let Pablo comment on that. We haven't had any update of that. Pablo, please.
Just to follow on the CapEx issue. After what Maximo mentioned, next year should be the
The top
the top of, or the higher part of our CapEx. We should start to reduce them back to probably a number of around $100 million, and then going back to normal level of CapEx. Going to your second question, as Maximo mentioned, there is no many news to comment on that. It was mentioned in different articles in the country, in Argentina, but we have nothing to mention in relationship to that. As you know, in the past we mentioned that it is something that if the possibility exists, we will analyze it very carefully because we understand that could be a transaction that could simplify our corporate structure and can be helpful for Ternium.
We need to be very cautious and to wait to see if there is feasibility for that, and then we will need to see the economics of that to see if this is positive for Ternium or not. Not many things to comment at the moment.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Leonardo Correa from BTG Pactual. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thank you. Guys, sorry to be repetitive. I think there have been several of the answers have already been in this direction. I'm going to try still to ask similar things here, but still on Argentina, guys. The story has obviously been unfolding quite interestingly, with major variables shifting quite a lot. I just wanted to see your views on sustainability of margins with this new level of currency and with these accounting standards. Just a little bit more color on how sustainable Argentina ex-CSA results could be with these new variables. The second point, you spoke a lot about pricing trends and correlations between U.S. and Mexico. When we look at some charts on prices, we've been seeing pricing in the U.S. quite resilient over the past weeks.
In Mexico, the charts and the data series that we've been looking at, we're starting to see some softness in prices in Mexico. I just wanted to confirm if you're seeing the same. Nothing major, but we're seeing some softness in the series. I just wanted to see if you share those views on pricing in Mexico specifically. On the issue of spreads, if you can give us just a quick number on what you're seeing in terms of HRC to slab spreads nowadays, that would also be helpful. Finally, guys, on the issue of dividends, I understand the answer that you've been providing over the past years. Looking at the history of the company, clearly Ternium has been bumping up the dividend over the past years. From 2013, the dividend was $128 million. It's now close to $250 million.
With the stock trading at 3.5 times EBITDA, the most depressed level globally, and with the company generating two times the dividend basically paid in the quarter in terms of free cash flow, I just wanted to see how management views the multiple, and whether a potential bump in dividends would be the best alternative and the easy way to rerate shares. Those are the questions, guys. Thank you.
Okay. A lot of questions, Leonardo. Let's try to answer it in a different way. Argentina. Margins in Argentina should continue to be rather the same that we are seeing today. Of course, the valuation helps in the cost side. We don't expect a decrease of the margin, if that was your question, or that's where your question was going.
Yes.
Prices in Mexico and the U.S. What we saw in the prices is, as I said before, prices were kind of similar. There was always a lag in the Mexican market against the price of the U.S. The price in Mexico followed very well the price in the U.S. Prices in the U.S. has increased much more than the prices in Mexico. We are not seeing a fall or a deep fall in prices in Mexico. What we are seeing in Mexico, and we see it last quarter, is that prices stay in a little bit lower level than the prices that the U.S. has today, which as you say, has been sustained at a higher level. That's what we are seeing in Mexico.
Of course, it's a very, how you said, healthy level of prices, but it's not the price of the U.S., and we don't expect to get there. Dividends? I don't know what-
Yes. Just a small caveat on the answer on Argentina. As I mentioned in another answer, we will be introducing inflation accounting. We don't have yet the final outcome of that, but probably could put some changes in the number and could be affecting that. We will analyze this at the moment comes, and we will try to explain which were the impact of that inflation accounting. Going back to your dividend question, I don't want to repeat myself because I believe I answer this question every quarter. You're right. We continue to perform very well. We have been able to reduce debt significantly, though at a much higher level than we used to have. The EBITDA or the debt to EBITDA level is back to very comfortable levels.
You also need to consider what Maximo mentioned, which was that we will be increasing CapEx during the coming year at a significant level. Clearly, the company will have the chance to further increase dividends in the coming year because the numbers could support clearly an increased dividend. Probably your question, I understand, is going to something different, which is an extraordinary dividend. That's more difficult for us to say. Clearly, as you mentioned, the trend has been very positive, and the expectation, by looking at the numbers of the company, is that this can continue. As you know, this is a decision that is taken once a year. The company is very well positioned to continue moving into that direction.
Thank you, Pablo and Maximo. Just a question I think that was still not addressed was on the HRC to slab spread. If you can give us the update, please, that would be helpful.
Yes. The margin continues to be very positive. You know that traditionally has been at levels of over or around $200 per ton. Clearly, this has increased during these coming quarters.
Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Hacking from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Just have a couple of quick questions on Mexico prices, if it's okay. Firstly, in the U.S. market, we're seeing quite a bit of compression between the spread of hot-rolled coil and cold rolled and galvanized. Is that a trend that you're also seeing in Mexico? Secondly, we're seeing U.S. imports come off quite a bit following Section 232. Have you seen any deflection of that into Mexico yet? Turkish rebar product that was headed for the U.S. now headed for Mexico. Thanks.
Thank you, Alex. First, the gap, kind of the same in Mexico that in the U.S., the gap. It's always kind of the same. Yes, it was very high, if you remember a couple of quarters ago. Now it's reducing a little bit. We don't have a huge impact on that. We're not seeing a huge impact, but yes, it's reducing a little bit. Imports, no. Imports in Mexico are not increasing. To be honest, we expect imports to decrease in Mexico, mainly due to the retaliation the Mexican government did to the U.S., and the fact that the U.S. can sell in the U.S. at higher prices. Remember, the biggest importers in Mexico are U.S. companies, are still coming from the U.S. We haven't seen that yet either. No increase and no decrease yet.
Thank you. Very helpful. Congratulations on all your success. Thanks.
Bye, thanks.
Your next question comes from the line of Andreas Bokkenheuser from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning. Just two quick questions from me. One, just following up on Section 232. A little bit of talk about the Section 232 export quotas on semi-finished steel from Brazil to the U.S. There has been some market reports suggesting that the export quotas are kind of filling up. How do you think about that? Is that a concern to you in any way? Could we end up in a situation where the LatAm market ends up a bit oversupplied on slab and semi-finished steel, and are you looking at other markets in that case if you can't get all of it into the U.S.? Is that a concern? That's the first question. Second question on the MSCI, obviously now with Argentina in there.
My understanding was that the MSCI rules were always a little bit more relaxed in Argentina than they are in Mexico. Are you giving any second thought to potentially a local listing in Argentina, anything of that nature? Has the MSCI listing in Argentina changed the way you think about that event going forward? Thank you very much. Those are my questions.
Thank you, Andreas. The first question about slabs from Brazil to the U.S., we don't have much concern. We are shipping to other markets also, a lot to Mexico, a lot to Brazil, which is very good for us. Clearly, we don't see any concern on that.
Okay, going to the second question regarding the MSCI. As you mentioned, Argentina was moved to emerging market in last month, that's very positive for our country. You are right also, there is some flexibility in respect to what trading is included in order to consider a company to include in the index, there is no still full clarity on how this will work. Remember that up to now has been a very limited number of companies included in that. We need to see which is the final outcome. You know that we have discussed in the past the alternative for us to consider possible ways of recover value, this one was one of the possible ideas. We need to analyze this very carefully.
Nothing that we can do at the moment, it's among the possible ideas that could help, not yet something that we are thinking at the moment.
Understood. Maybe just one follow-up. This was something I was trying to look into. I couldn't really get any clarity on it. I seem to recall that in Mexico, you couldn't include the ADRs in New York in your liquidity count. There was some talk, I think, that in Argentina, you could be able to. Is that something you've heard? Is that something you've confirmed as well, or is that still a bit of a black box?
Yes. As I said, there is not still full clarity and definition because it will be next year in Argentina. You are right. In the case of Mexico and as many countries, the MSCI only includes local listings. In the case of Argentina, very few markets, I think China is one of they are, you can sum up the listing in other markets. The U.S. market, of course.
That's very clear. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
Your last question comes from the line of Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I just want a clarification regarding Argentina and the margins that you expect there going forward. If I'm correct, you mentioned that you expect margins to basically stay where they are or stable. That means, I believe that the costs are increasing. You are going to use inflation accounting. I see that, for example, the power bills are going up by 30% this month. Just want to understand what do you expect in terms of costs going forward? If you can give us a breakdown, the breakdown of cost in Argentina. In the case of Mexico, well, there is a new administration, the last time that we saw that happening with Peña Nieto, there were some changes in the rules for the housing industry. Many of the companies went bankrupt, there was a credit crunch, and there was contraction in construction.
What is your base case for today, for this time? What are you expecting in terms of the construction industry? What are the risks that you see in terms of in construction or if there are some ties to the auto industry are implemented in the U.S., what do you think about those risks? Thank you.
Thank you, Alfonso. I start, if you don't mind, with Argentina and the margins. There are several effects in the margins of Argentina, I think overall some of them are positives and some of them are negative. Inflation adjustment will be probably negative, to be honest, we cannot yet say how much it will be. On the other hand, costs are coming down in Argentina because of the devaluation. Overall, we think that margins will be sustained because of these effects and other ones. Inflation is another thing that elevates cost. That's why we say that probably margins will be sustained. We will know when we calculate clearly this adjustment for inflation. The other one is the construction in Mexico. It's true what you said about these companies when Peña Nieto started the government.
To be honest, it was a very small amount of the construction industry in Mexico. It was only industry that was dedicated to these social houses. The lower-income houses projects, which, to be honest, do not take much steel. We didn't suffer anything during that time. What is true also is that construction, all the construction industry, has not been doing very well in Mexico in the last year, but it is increasing these last 2 quarters, mainly because infrastructure is coming down from the last 2 or 3 years. The government is spending less in infrastructure, and private construction was kind of complementing that and increasing. The effect was almost neutral. Today, although private construction is still increasing in Mexico, it is not increasing at a pace that can compensate the decrease in infrastructure.
Today, it is very difficult to say what is going to happen with the new government. If you see the declarations of the new government regarding this topic, López Obrador has very clear that Mexico is investing too little in infrastructure, and he wants to make a case for more spending in private and public infrastructure projects. The public ones will come from a reduction in the spending of the government, and that is what he is saying today. For me, it is very good news, and I think Mexico is reacting to this very good. Still, 4 months more that they took government and then to implement these plans. I don't know in reality if this is going to happen or not. It is a good projection, what they are saying.
Okay. Regarding the auto tariffs in the U.S.
The auto tariff in the U.S., that is a very difficult question to answer. I think that these are things that probably the U.S. is using to negotiate with Europe different things. It is very difficult to justify tariff on automobiles because of security reasons. It is very unlikely that this can go forward. It is our vision.
Okay, excellent. Thank you very much, Max.
That concludes the question and answer period. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO for closing remarks.
All right. Thank you very much for all participating today. I look forward to seeing you at the New York Stock Exchange on our Investor Day. That will be held September 7th, and we will go deeper into our strategy and long-term perspective. I really hope you can all make it there. Goodbye, and again, thank you very much.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.