Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Uber's acquisition of Postmates conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. If you require any further assistance, please press star zero. I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Emily Reuter, investor relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's conference call regarding Uber's agreement to acquire Postmates. On the call today, we have Dara Khosrowshahi and Nelson Chai. We also have Kent Schofield, and this is Emily Reuter from the investor relations team. We will start today with remarks from Dara and Nelson and then host a brief Q&A session. We have allotted 30 minutes for this call. Certain statements on this call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements concerning the proposed transaction and other matters related to Uber and Postmates that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today.
For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the risks and uncertainties included in our SEC filings, including our filings on forms 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K. In connection with the proposed transaction, we will file with the SEC a registration statement on Form S-4 to include a prospectus of Uber. Investors are urged to carefully read the registration statement and other relevant documents to be filed with the SEC in their entirety when they become available, as they will contain important information about Uber, Postmates, the proposed transaction, and related matters. Investors will be able to obtain free copies of the registration statement and other documents filed with the SEC through the website maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov and on our investor relations website at investor.uber.com.
You can find today's press release, a deal focus investor presentation, and any additional materials to be filed by Uber with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction on investor.uber.com. With that, let me hand it over to Dara.
Thanks, Emily. I'm excited to announce that we signed an agreement to acquire Postmates in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $2.65 billion. This acquisition is going to allow us to drive continued growth, improve our operating efficiency, and accelerate our path to profitability through the combination of Uber and Postmates' scale, technology, and complementary geographic strengths. Before I talk more about the deal, I wanted to provide a brief update on our Eats business and our views on food delivery category more broadly. Globally, the food delivery ecosystem is large, dynamic, highly competitive, and growing quickly. Consumers and restaurants had been shifting towards delivery before COVID-19, but the pandemic has accelerated these trends, rapidly attracting new customers and restaurants, including many that have previously not considered ordering or offering food delivery. We believe this shift, in many ways, is structural and will continue past the immediate crisis.
The performance of our Uber Eats business reflects these wider trends. We've seen record volumes with strong growth throughout April, May, and June. Based on preliminary results, we expect that Eats gross bookings grew just over 100% year-on-year in Q2. We're in the unique position of having the Eats business to significantly offset headwinds in our rides business, which saw gross bookings decline roughly 75% year-on-year in Q2 with a steady recovery to less than 60% year-on-year decline as of the last few days, with recovery vary by geography and with some countries having recovered to year-on-year growth.
We believe the success of Uber Eats over the last four years, from zero to the largest food delivery service by gross bookings outside of China year to date 2020, was in large part due to the power of our global brand and our delivery model, which connects restaurants with a network of drivers and delivery people. We've continued to extend our strong position in urban areas and engage with some of our most valuable customers with an additional Uber service beyond ridesharing. Eats has now achieved a leading category position in dozens of the biggest cities around the world, including London, Paris, Lisbon, Tokyo, Taipei, Sydney, Toronto, Mexico City, and many others. In the U.S., we have a leading position in a number of major metropolitan markets.
Importantly, we continue to gain category position in New York City, and while we've seen significant growth across the city, we're particularly pleased with our growth outside of Manhattan, which represents nearly two-thirds of the NYC online food delivery market by gross bookings and has grown much faster than Manhattan over the past several quarters. Some of these cities were large, profitable strongholds for established competitors who have historically been focused on a marketplace or 2P model. Our success in these areas is a resounding endorsement of the value of our delivery model that our delivery model brings to consumers, restaurants, and delivery people through increased selection and network efficiencies. It's clearer than ever to us that the logistics side of the equation will continue to play a prominent role in the growth of this category. Our business is a technology-enabled game of inches.
It takes time and a relentless focus on execution, but as we start benefiting from strong flywheel effects, the model starts to turn profitable. While we continue to invest in our business in the U.S. and a number of competitive markets, our Eats business is now profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis in two of our top five Eats countries by gross bookings. We're confident that we can continue to make progress towards breakeven and beyond on our Eats business, both organically and inorganically. Of course, consolidation could naturally accelerate that progress. We said that we would be a consolidator for the right assets at the right price, which brings us today to the announcement with Postmates. This transaction combines a rides and Eats platform and deep logistics expertise with Postmates' brand and distinctive delivery assets in the U.S.
I want to spend a few minutes highlighting some of the valuable and differentiated products, technology, and expertise that Postmates will bring to Uber, including $643 million in Q1 gross bookings, growing over 67% year-on-year and over 50% quarter-on-quarter in Q2. A geographic presence with strength in the U.S. Southwest, including Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Orange County, Phoenix, and San Diego, that complements our existing Eats presence. Differentiated restaurant selection of over 115,000 partnered restaurants, a number of which are new to the Uber Eats platform, including relationships with popular local hero brands such as SUGARFISH, Tocaya, Ono Hawaiian BBQ, and sweetgreen. A well-loved brand with over 10 million loyal active customers who placed an order in the last 12 months ending March 31st.
Industry-leading delivery efficiency and batching at nearly three deliveries per hour in established geographies, which we intend to leverage through combined dispatch efforts to further improve our own delivery efficiency. A sizable subscription base with 30% of orders coming from Postmates Unlimited. Technology and operations to facilitate delivery for non-partner merchants that's much more reliable for consumers and delivery people, and significantly less disruptive for merchants than the approach of many competitors. An accelerated delivery as a service effort, which complements our own efforts on grocery and B2C delivery. The combination of Uber Eats and Postmates is also expected to drive significant efficiencies and cost savings that allow us to bring benefits to all sides of the marketplace, including consumers and restaurants. We believe we can achieve over $200 million of run rate synergies one year after close.
Additionally, we believe that over time, we can offer wider selection and lower prices for consumers, generate increased demand, lower costs, streamline operations with fewer tablets for restaurants, and provide more work opportunities and improved earnings for delivery people. We believe all of this will ultimately drive value for Uber as well. With that, I'll turn it over to Nelson for more details on the transaction.
Thanks, Dara. Turning now to the details of the transaction. The transaction is valued at approximately $2.65 billion on a fully diluted basis, subject to net debt adjustments. Postmates stockholders will receive 100% cash consideration. Uber common stock issued in the transaction will be valued at $31.45, based on Uber's 10-day VWAP as of June 29th, 2020. Postmates stockholders representing more than 55% of its outstanding shares have committed to approve the transaction. Uber is committed to provide bridge financing to Postmates during the process of obtaining regulatory approval. Postmates will be combined with the Uber Eats business unit led by Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty, vice president of our delivery business. We estimate synergies to be over $200 million of run rate savings one year after close, driven by efficiencies in G&A, sales and marketing, courier utilization, and payment fees. We believe the combination accelerates our path to profitability.
We expect to provide more details on the efficiencies we'll be able to achieve as well as other acquisition-related financial impacts once the deal closes. In terms of process and timing, the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including applicable regulatory approval. As such, we expect to close the transaction in Q1 of 2021. I'm sorry, I think I said, the transaction was cash. It's all stock. I apologize if I misspoke. With that, let's move to Q&A. Please be mindful that we will not comment on Q2 performance, so please keep questions focused on this transaction. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press the pound or hash key. Our first question this morning comes from Brian Nowak from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my questions, guys. I have two. Just the first one, could you give us any rough idea on the Postmates current EBITDA profit or loss runway, just so we have an idea for the way to think about the business after the synergies? The second one, just on the efficiency, nearly three orders per courier per hour is, I think is pretty strong. Maybe talk to us about what drives that. Is there anything differentiated with Postmates tech stack or their routing technology or anything that you can leverage from that perspective to maybe make Uber Eats run even more efficiently? Thanks.
Hi, Brian. Thanks for the question. We're not going to disclose Postmates' run rate at this point, although I can tell you that the business was getting much closer to profits on a run rate basis. The company, under Bastian's leadership, was feeling very good about the direction. We think with synergies, this will be a profitable deal for us, if you look at the deal on a standalone basis. In terms of the Postmates, the number of transactions per hour, we agree. What they've done is very impressive. As a smaller player in the field, I think the team was very focused on making sure that they had the most efficient cost base that they could. Part of what Postmates does quite effectively is their batching technology.
Because they have a pretty good concentration in a smaller number of markets, L.A., Orange County, the markets that we went over, they can use their technology to batch quite efficiently. I think that we are certainly going to talk to them, and I'm sure that this is technology that can be leveraged across Uber and Uber Eats on a global basis. They get a number of tips per drop, so to speak, so their earnings increase as well. For restaurants, it brings in more business because it reduces essentially, the cost of delivery.
Great. Thanks, guys.
All right, thanks.
Our next question comes from Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Just looking at some of the numbers from Second Measure, it looks like the combined entity will have leadership positions in L.A., Atlanta, Phoenix. Those are strong. Miami, number 2 in New York and San Fran, I call it half market share there. Can you talk a little bit about how you view entering those two cities in particular? Maybe, is Postmates seeing any of this feedback from local officials about the rates and, "Hey, you're extracting a toll from these restaurants while they're under duress?
Sorry, which two cities in particular were you pointing out?
San Fran and New York.
Listen, I think first of all, when you look at the market and the size of the market, we really believe that the market is much bigger than, let's say, the traditional delivery players, right? We look at groceries, a category. There's a lot of hot food being delivered. We look at essentials as a category that we are going to go after as well. Make no mistake, when we look at the category, for us, it started with food, but it's much more expansive than that. It's essentials, it's grocery. By the way, we expect the grocery players and players in kind of adjacent categories, as well as the big restaurants themselves, to get into our category as well.
While we have good share in those markets, we kind of view the market share and the market much more broadly than the category positions that most of these services measure. In terms of NYC and SF, they're very big players there. We are going to be a decent player in those markets as well. We don't think we're going to have any particular trouble in those markets because they're very competitive. They've got some big players, and again, big players in both the traditional restaurant category as well as grocery, et cetera. I think that this is a deal that, again, it's going to be good for us. It's going to be good for restaurants. It's going to be good for delivery people.
While I'm sure we will have plenty of discussions on a local basis, I don't see any kind of big red flags, so to speak.
Got it. Thanks, Dara.
Sure.
Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney from RBC. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Two questions, please. Could you double-click a little bit more on the $200 million of run rate synergies? Nelson, I think you just went through the list pretty quickly, but spend a little bit more time on how you came up with those numbers. You talk about the transaction accelerating the path to profitability. You may not quantify it, but are we talking about a couple of months, a couple of quarters? Anything that puts some more color around that rate of acceleration. Thanks a lot.
Mark.
Nelson, can you take that?
Dara, I got it. Mark, as I said in my prepared comments, we'll spend a little bit more time as we are closer to. We went through their financials quite closely and obviously know ours as well, and so we obviously see pretty straightforward integration opportunities here. As you know, we'll continue with, Postmates has a tremendous following in the markets in where they are, and so we'll continue to do that. It's actually a relatively straightforward G&A sales and marketing kind of standard playbook type stuff that you'll see us continue to execute there. Again, I think from that perspective, again, we'll give more color, as I said. In terms of accelerating the path of profitability, I think both businesses continue to benefit for what's going on regard outside in the world and COVID and how it's pushed forward a lot of food delivery.
Their business has continued to do quite well. They've continued to narrow their loss, if you will. We continue to grow our business, as Dara said. We look forward to talking about our business more when we do our second quarter earnings. We put a line in the sand next year regarding profitability, and our ability to get there is predicated a little bit, a lot on recovery, more broadly, but certainly on improving our Eats economics, which we believe we are doing.
Okay. Thank you.
Next question.
Our next question comes from Steven Fox from Fox Advisors. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Just as a follow-up to everything you've talked about, can you maybe expand on the competitive environment as you implement more technology into the delivery system and network? Is there certain advantages you think you come out of that with relative to all the entrants that you cited? Thank you very much.
Sure. I think that one huge advantage that we have is the same technology stack that essentially is powering our Uber Ride service, and many of the elements of that technology stack in terms of our routing, our mapping, our pricing, even if you look at batching, which is picking two or three or four orders up and delivering it, which increases efficiency, that technology is broadly similar to our Uber Pool technology, which isn't running now because of COVID. A lot of the underlying technology, the matching technology that we got, comes out of the Uber Ride service, and is being built on top of that core service for Uber Eats.
That just provides an enormous advantage in terms of the talent that you can hire as far as the engineers go, the efficiency of the systems, and your ability to drive more and more efficiency out of these systems in a way that some of our competitors can't. You put that together with some of the really smart work that we've seen from Postmates, we really like the combination there. I think that team has been very scrappy, very entrepreneurial, and we can use some of the learnings of their systems and build on top of our systems, in order to build a better service overall, for everyone involved. On the competitive sector, listen, these are big markets. We expect competition in this category for many many years to come.
Because of the innovation of Postmates, kind of the over-the-top service that they built, where they essentially deliver anything, not just food, but groceries, pharmacy, et cetera, we think that's a very promising area. We've been developing our own over-the-top services as well in order to broaden our offering. Really, the vision for us is to become an everyday service. Your being able to use Uber Rides to go anyplace in a city, however you want to get there, whether it's with a car or a taxi or mass transit. If you want anything delivered to your home, within a couple of hours, you can come to Uber Eats, and if it's food, it's great, but if you want groceries, pharmacy, again, any other category, you can have it delivered to your home as well. Postmates, we think, is a great step along that vision.
Any place you want to go, anything you want delivered to your home, Uber is going to be there with you. We think these everyday frequent interactions create habit, create a connection with customers. We talked about the Postmates Unlimited, their subscription service. Our subscription service, as well, is growing at very, very rapid rates. We think over a period of time, we can have a technological edge, we can have a brand edge, and we can just have a frequency edge over the other competitors out there. We think these are big, big markets and again, we'll be running against a lot of competitors as we look to build our own service.
Great. That's extremely helpful. Good luck with the transaction. Thanks.
Thank you very much. Next question.
Our next question comes from Ross Sandler from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Dara, you mentioned that Postmates has really good efficiency metrics in terms of fleet or delivery cost per order. The question is, I guess, how wide is the gap in delivery efficiency between Postmates and Uber? Is there technology that Postmates is using that you could deploy on the Uber Eats side to potentially improve the delivery efficiency on both sides of the house? I guess, what do you think is the long-term opportunity to increase take rate at both Postmates and at Uber Eats from that? Thank you.
Hey, Ross. Yeah, absolutely. So in terms of the delivery efficiency, we do think that there's real potential there. Now, I will caution you that not all delivery networks are born equal in that the geography in which you operate can significantly differ, let's say, how much you can batch, the routing, the number of drops per hour. Obviously, the more concentrated, let's say, a geography is, like the L.A. area, the more aggressive you can be with this kind of batching. That said, we do think that we at Uber have the opportunity to batch more, and to increase our own efficiency metrics and the efficiencies of the deal, the synergies of the deal that we talked about, the $200 million plus, don't include significant numbers as it relates to network efficiency.
If we're able to drive significant numbers on network efficiencies, the synergies can be substantially beyond the $200 million. We wanted to be conservative in our planning as we are in every part of our business. Again, the network efficiency we think has potential, and that potential can actually improve on the synergies that we talked to you about. In terms of take rate, et cetera, I wouldn't expect any significant moves on the take rate front. As you know, take rates in general have been moving up for us. I think our take rate is very low considering that the cost of delivery generally is contra revenue for us. This deal isn't about increasing take rates.
This deal is actually about creating kind of larger industrial logic and efficiencies that will allow us to actually keep take rates low as low as we can for restaurants and grocery partners, because that is essentially a great way to, from a long-term perspective, grow the business going forward. We will build tools like advertising, for example, for restaurants who want more promotion on the network one way or the other. I actually think that this is a pretty good way of keeping take rates nice and low, because this is a very large TAM that's ahead of us. Next question?
Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks, guys, for taking my question. Dara, I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on how you see the U.S. market evolving from here. If I look at the latest numbers, Postmates is number one. Sorry, I meant DoorDash is number one. You guys, with a combination, will be two-third of their size, and we still have Grubhub as a number three. On a share loss trajectory. My question was, do you think there is room for further consolidation, or is your experience in the last few weeks that regulation is going to prevent that? Do you think the U.S. market becomes like a three-player market? If that's the case, is that the kind of environment that you had implied in your 30% EBITDA contribution margin target and your 16% take rate target for it?
Yeah, Pierre. It's very difficult to speculate where the U.S. market is going, I certainly wouldn't think that it is going to reduce from three to two. Remember, I do think the way that we view this category is very broad. Ourselves, DoorDash, I'm actually not sure about Grubhub, are all looking to get into adjacent categories and really looking to power local commerce, and different types of delivery to the home. This is a business that Amazon is in. This is a business that Walmart is in. I do think that the category and the markets are going to start overlapping with a lot of other players. The TAMs here, the total addressable markets, are huge. I think that there is plenty of room in the U.S. markets.
If you want to stick to the traditional players, I think that there is room for three players. It's a big enough market, and there is room, certainly, for three players to be profitable and to do very well. That said, we like our position. We're never satisfied. We think that this Postmates deal gets us stronger in the U.S. I think it brings a terrific brand, a really strong management team, and the opportunity to increase efficiencies. We think that it puts us in a very strong position going forward in what is our largest market.
Thanks, Dara.
Operator, can we take the final question, please?
Certainly. Our final question comes from Heath Terry from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Dara, Postmates has obviously been one of the more aggressive in the market in terms of customer acquisition, with the ubiquitous $100 cards at restaurants as their primary strategy there. I'm wondering how that factored into you and the team's view on the value of their customers, sort of the sustainability of their customers, both, in terms of the asset at Postmates and then also the impact that maybe having Postmates as a more rational competitor to Uber Eats within the company would have on the overall value of the business.
I think that Postmates, for us, we've always admired Postmates, I guess, begrudgingly from afar, in that it was a competitor who was able to compete aggressively and to be a leader in some very important markets with a much smaller capital base than a lot of its competition, including ourselves. I think that they did it with some aggressive tactics, but I think they've also built a great brand. It's a very scrappy brand out there. They have a number of great kind of top local restaurants. It's seen as a very local kind of brand that has real substance behind it. We really like what they've done with their subscription program. I do think that some of these tactics that they brought to bear, these are the tactics of great entrepreneurs.
These are tactics that we can learn from as well, and we can take into our company as we build our services. We like what they've done. We like some of these tactics, and you can expect to see some of these tactics at Uber Eats. Of course, you can expect us to continue to do what we're doing. Again, for a little perspective, we have gone from essentially zero, and from the Eats side, pretty much 100% organically until now, have built the largest food delivery company outside of China, in the world.
We think the combination of kind of Uber Eats' scale, hyper growth on top of the technology platform that we've got here, and then some of the really good work that Postmates has done in terms of delivery efficiency and in terms of just building a really terrific brand that resonates with millennials. We think it's just a wonderful combination, and it's a combination that'll work for restaurants, it'll work for consumers, and it'll work for couriers as well. We're pretty excited about it.
Great. Thanks, Dara.
You bet. I think that's it. Emily, anything else to add?
No, that's it. Thank you all for joining this morning.
All right. Thank you very much for joining. We're thrilled to move forward on this transaction. Congratulations to the folks who worked on this deal, and congratulations to the Postmates folks. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.