Greetings, and welcome to the Urban Edge Properties first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star and then zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jennifer Holmes. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to Urban Edge Properties first quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Jeff Olson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Langer, Chief Financial Officer, Chris Weilminster, Chief Operating Officer, Danielle De Vita, EVP of Development, Herb Eilberg, Chief Investment Officer, and Rob Milton, General Counsel. Please note, today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about the company's views of future events and financial performance, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, and which the company does not undertake to update. Our actual future results, financial condition, and business may differ materially. Please refer to our filings with the SEC, which are also available on our website for more information about the company. In our discussion today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Reconciliations of these measures to GAAP results are available in our earnings release and supplemental disclosure package in the investor section of our website. At this time, it is my pleasure to introduce our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Olson.
Great. Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report a strong start to the year with FFO as adjusted of $0.28 per share for the first quarter, up 8% compared to prior year, driven by a 5.5% increase in same-property NOI and external growth through approximately $250 million of acquisitions completed over the past year. We ended the quarter with same-property leased occupancy of 93.9%, up 280 basis points year-over-year. Including three anchor leases we executed since the end of the first quarter, our occupancy is now 94.5%, up 40 basis points compared to December 31, 2021. The gap between our leased versus physical occupancy in our same-property pool is now 380 basis points.
Opening these tenants continues to be a top priority and will be a significant contributor to NOI. In total, we have $22 million of future gross revenue coming from executed leases, not yet rent commenced, representing approximately 10% of our current NOI, which may be the highest percentage among our peers. The open-air shopping center sector is performing exceptionally well. Simply look at the share performance of our 40 largest tenants who are publicly traded and comprise 52% of our total rents. Since February 2020, right before COVID shut the world down, the stock prices of these 40 companies are up 33% on a weighted average basis, led by our top five tenants, Home Depot, TJX, Lowe's, Best Buy, and Walmart.
Leasing momentum is strong as we head to ICSC with over 1 million sq ft of leases under negotiation at spreads that exceed 20%. Our strategic plan is focused on improving retail real estate in first-ring suburban markets, primarily throughout the D.C. to Boston corridor. There are four pillars to our plan. The first pillar is upgrading our properties through adding new anchor tenants that not only provide a good return on current capital, but also provide further upside from leasing surrounding vacant space, securing higher rents from adjacent tenants, and from achieving cap rate compression. We have $207 million of active projects underway expected to generate an 8% unleveraged yield. In addition, we expect to activate another $100 million of projects within the next year.
The second pillar is growing our occupancy rate from our current rate of 94.5% to at least 96%. On this point, our progress is encouraging as demand is strong across a number of sectors. In many cases, we have multiple tenants competing for the same space. The third pillar is monetizing non-income producing land. This is a unique aspect of our portfolio as our properties are concentrated in the most densely populated market in the country, namely the New York metropolitan area. We have identified opportunities where the highest and best use for the land could be for residential, industrial, or medical office.
The greatest opportunities include the 77 acres of land at Sunrise Mall in Massapequa, New York, that is zoned for industrial use, and 8 acres of land adjacent to Bergen Town Center that could accommodate 450-500 multifamily units. Our fourth pillar pertains to value we can capture from refinancing Las Catalinas Mall in Puerto Rico. Our mortgage provides us with a discounted payoff option starting in August 2023 at about $50 million less than the current carrying value of the debt. Based on the anticipated opening of Sector 66 next year and the leasing momentum we are seeing at the property, we expect to exercise this option once replacement financing is secured. In addition to the growth we can achieve within our existing portfolio, further upside can be achieved through external growth.
We currently have a $33 million grocery anchored center under agreement to acquire, and we'll provide additional details after we close on the property. I am proud to see our team executing our plan with such a spirit of teamwork and collaboration. We are making great progress on our four strategic pillars of delivering value-add anchor repositioning projects, increasing occupancy to exceed 96%, monetizing non-income producing land, and extracting value from a debt refinancing. I will now turn it over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Weilminster.
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I am happy to see the solid leasing momentum continue into 2022, with 33 leases totaling 308,000 sq ft executed in the first quarter, and same space leases generating an average cash rent spread of 5%. Equally exciting is our 1 million sq ft leasing pipeline at expected rent spreads of 20%. This pipeline includes important anchor backfilling at Bruckner, Hudson Mall and Montehiedra. At Bruckner, we have made great progress on leasing the majority of the former Kmart store to a high-profile national retailer and the former Toys R Us to another national retailer. We look forward to sharing the details of this activity upon lease execution. We are also leasing the former Fallas box to two discount retailers and Aldi grocery store.
Once completed, Bruckner will solidify its position as one of the most dominant retail destinations in the Bronx. At Hudson Mall, we are backfilling the Toys R Us box with a national grocer and are negotiating leases with well-recognized retailers to retenant and renovate a significant portion of the property. The enhancements we plan to make at Hudson Mall will transform the property located in Jersey City in a manner consistent with what we are accomplishing at Bruckner. At Montehiedra, we are backfilling the Kmart box with three tenants, including a grocer, a soft goods discount retailer, and a medical service provider. We remain on track to execute these leases during the second and third quarter of this year.
Demand is being driven by a broad range of retailer categories, including grocers, soft goods retailers, general merchandise retailers, sporting goods, home improvement, health and beauty retailers, medical and personal service providers, restaurants, especially in the fast casual concept niche, fitness operators, and we are seeing large entertainment concepts back looking for growth opportunities. Retailers continue to focus on improving product offerings, strengthening customer engagement with seamless bricks and mortar and digital marketplace initiatives, while using data to improve efficiencies in their operating models. Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy recently announced online sales declines while showing positive sales growth in bricks and mortar locations, while Amazon, Wayfair and PayPal have reported tempered guidance as demand decreases and customer acquisition and delivery costs continue to rise. As Jeffrey Raider, co-founder and Co-CEO of Harry's, Inc., states, "The internet is a great place to transact, but it's not great to discover.
Everyone's working on that in the digital world, but there's something that's just amazing about in-person discovery." We agree. Retailers continue to seek well-located opportunities that provide a great shopping experience for their customers. Based on the current leasing velocity, I am confident we will achieve leased occupancy of 96% by end of the year, and then we'll turn our sights to restoring the portfolio to historical occupancy of 97% and 98%. Turning to consumer behavior, we are pleased to see that our customer traffic throughout the portfolio continues to strengthen. The total portfolio saw customer traffic increase 11% in Q1 2022 versus Q1 2021, and 8% versus Q1 2019. Our portfolio is attracting more customers than it did pre-COVID and should materially increase as occupancy returns to historical levels.
Jeff mentioned the four pillars of our strategic plan, and I can assure all of you that our property management and leasing teams are laser-focused on doing everything possible to reach our 96% occupancy goal this year. We are working hand-in-hand with Danielle and our development team to enhance our properties with a mix of leading retailers, including specialty and shop tenants in an environment that appeals to a consumer who is increasingly focused on convenience, safety, and experience. Mark.
Thank you, Chris. Good morning. I will start by covering some of our financial highlights for the first quarter and then provide an update on business fundamentals.
Including our NOI and earnings expectations, and we'll close with comments on our balance sheet and liquidity. Starting with our results for the quarter. We reported FFO, as adjusted, of $0.28 per share, slightly better than our expectations, primarily due to the benefit of earning an additional $700,000 of percentage rent related to 2021 tenant sales, which we now disclose in our supplement. NOI growth was strong during the first quarter, up 5.5% on a same-property basis when compared to the first quarter of 2021, and up 3.8% when including properties in redevelopment. The first quarter results this year included $1.3 million of recoveries for amounts previously reserved.
An expected decline compared to quarterly levels throughout 2021, including $3.3 million recognized in the first quarter of last year. One positive trend we continue to see regarding the strength of the retail recovery is embedded in the high collection rates we have achieved on the rent deferrals we executed during the pandemic. Of the nearly $12 million of total deferrals, our collection rate is currently at 98%. This is a real testament to our receivable and collections team, and also to our tenants, who are honoring their commitment to pay amounts that were deferred during the height of the pandemic. In addition, our collections on base rents this quarter exceeds 99% and is now at pre-pandemic levels. In terms of items impacting future NOI and earnings growth, it is helpful to note the following.
The biggest driver of future growth comes from our leased but not commenced pipeline that Jeff highlighted, which currently consists of approximately $22 million of future annual gross rent that reflects the 380 basis point spread between our same-property physical to leased occupancy. We added a table in our supplement on page 21, which highlights that approximately $5 million of this revenue is expected to be recognized this year, primarily weighted to the back half of the year. An additional $11 million of annual gross rent is expected to be recognized during 2023, which will gradually build up as rents commence throughout the year.
During our earnings call last quarter, I described the puts and takes that are expected to impact NOI this year, including tailwinds from new leasing, contractual bumps, bad debt reversals, and improvements in recovery ratios as physical occupancy grows. We also noted the headwinds that we will face from some expected anchor fallout. Overall, considering changes in bad debt levels, we continue to expect that NOI will be positive this year. This factors in our current expectation of future bad debt reversals, where we believe we can collect an additional $1.5 million-$3 million of amounts previously reserved, which will help offset the more than $8 million of reversals re-recorded in 2021.
Prior to adjusting for reversals, our internal forecast for the remainder of 2022 assumes that new bad debt reserves are in line with pre-COVID levels, equating to 75-100 basis points of gross revenues. One item I wanna highlight this quarter is our reporting related to Sunrise Mall. Given the unique aspect of this property, where the value of the asset is not at all correlated to traditional occupancy, base rent, and NOI metrics, we have separately identified the $1.4 million first quarter net operating loss for the property on page 6 of the supplement within our reconciliation of net income to same-property NOI. We expect this to be a good proxy for subsequent quarters this year with the mall at 47% occupancy.
We do not include Sunrise within our headline, same-property or retail occupancy figures due to the repositioning plans for this asset. In terms of our balance sheet and liquidity, we ended the quarter with almost $200 million of cash and have no amounts drawn on our $600 million line of credit. We are currently in the process of refinancing our two mortgages that come due this quarter that aggregate $82 million. We expect to utilize our cash on hand to fund our redevelopment projects and for acquisition opportunities. I echo the sentiment noted by Jeff and Chris as it pertains to our focus on achieving our operational and financial goals while simultaneously advancing our goals related to ESG.
We are making great progress on all fronts and are seeing the benefits of our past efforts pay off as we reposition the portfolio with stronger national tenants who are providing us with a more durable and growing stream of cash flows. We look forward to meeting with many investors at the upcoming Nareit conference. I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Thank you, Phil. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and then two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. The first question we have is from Richard Hill from Morgan Stanley.
Hey, good morning, guys. I really liked in your press release where you talked about getting back to 96% occupancy, maybe even a little bit higher than that. I think it's really nice to be front-footed about that. Can we maybe just talk through the cadence of getting back to those levels? I recognize there's a lot of moving parts between redevelopment and leasing, but for our modeling purposes, I think it would be helpful for us and maybe others to just maybe understand the cadence of getting back to that 96+ level.
Yeah, I mean, I'll turn it over to Chris in a minute. Good morning. Yeah, our goal to get back to 96% from a timing perspective is by the end of this year. You know, we have a specific path to get there lease by lease. We do expect that we will be higher than that as we go into the outer years into 2023 and 2024. If you recall, you know, we averaged 97%-98% for quite some time period. Our expectation is we'll probably be back at those levels within 24 months. Chris, do you wanna add to that?
Sure. Good morning, Richard. We have a lot of activity right now with regard to some of the anchor spaces in our smaller anchor spaces. A lot of activity with retailers, and we think by the end of the second quarter, we're gonna be able to report a large chunk of that GLA to be leased up. That's close to three. We've got over 300,000 sq ft. We've got activity in all of that space right now. That's a big piece on the anchor side. On the small shop side or on the shop side leasing, we've got about 42 transactions we need to get done, and we're making very good progress on those as well.
It's harder to get into it 'cause it's a lot more transactions, but we're finding a lot of activity in the F&B side and the health and beauty side and the personal services side, the medical side. Those are all driving that occupancy on the small shops. We think we can pick up 300+ basis points on small shop occupancy from what's been reported and get that done by year-end, which will push us hopefully over the finish line on the 96%. We're certainly not focused to stick on 96%. I mean, we think that once we get there that there's a good pathway over the next couple of years to find our way back up to our more traditional occupancy, 97+%.
You got it. Maybe just one accounting housekeeping item. On Las Catalinas Mall, recognize that's financed in 2 CMBS deals. Are there any sort of accounting nuances we should be aware of? Because I do recognize there's gonna be a pretty attractive gain relative to the loan balances, if I'm thinking about that correctly.
Yeah, Richard, this is Mark. I think the only nuance is that we can't recognize that gain Jeff has referenced until we actually execute and fully refinance it. There's no contingent gain, so we'll book it once it's executed.
Okay. Thanks, guys. Congrats on a nice quarter.
Great. Thank you, Richard.
Thank you. The next question we have is from Evercore ISI.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Jeff, this NOI that's gonna come through now, I think it's $22 million, which is higher than the prior quarter. Then I think the breakdown, if I heard this correctly, was $5 million for this year. If you take the other side of this, I know it's all positive, but is there any way that timing could sort of slip given the macro issues out there and just sort of the labor issues we hear about?
Sure. Well, first of all, the $22 million, when you add in the 100,000 sq ft of leases that we just signed since the end of the quarter, that actually goes up to $24 million. It's actually increased. But yeah, I think there's a little bit of risk. We certainly have built in contingencies in these numbers, just because of the supply chain issues, both with respect to, you know, our development costs, but also to the timing of getting these tenants opened. What we've outlined on page 21 in the supplement, which goes through the timing year by year, you know, we feel very good about those numbers as of today.
Okay. Got it. I guess just on the transaction market here, and it sounds like you have something under contract on the grocery side. Maybe just give us sort of a general view of kind of what you're seeing in terms of pricing with bond yields going up, you know, just kind of a overview on the transaction market. Not only grocery anchor centers, but are you starting to see some trades on maybe a bit more boxier centers as well? Any color would be helpful.
Happy to provide some, and I'll let Herb comment as well. You know, in terms of cap rates, even though interest rates have gone up, we have not seen any significant movement in cap rates. When we look at trades, you know, there's a $400 million portfolio in Boston that's trading in the very low 4s. That's probably the most active comp that's out there. There have been a couple large portfolios in Long Island, I think totaling around $500 million, that have also traded in the 4-ish cap rate range, call it the mid- to high 4s.
Obviously, this is well below the mid- to high-sixes that our cap rate is trading at based on our current price, according to the math behind your numbers and many others. Herb, do you wanna make a comment on cap rates?
Yeah, sure. Good morning. You know, just echoing what Jeff said, we really haven't seen much movement, particularly in the higher quality, institutional quality assets. Again, you know, this tend to be lower leverage transactions, so that makes sense. You know, in some of the, you know, secondary markets, we are starting to see some impact. Those tend to be more levered buyers, so it's natural there that you'd see some widening of cap rates. You know, I think the headline is there's no shortage of demand for good retail assets, certainly much more so than in recent years, and that trend seems to be continuing. We think that, you know, that wave of capital is gonna mitigate any real impact from higher interest rates.
That's it for me. Thank you.
Great. Thank you, Samir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The next question we have is from Paulina Rojas from Green Street. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I'm curious, can you provide different pieces of information for leased occupancy? What does it mean for physical occupancy, that 96% that you're expecting, for leased occupancy for the end of the year?
I'm sorry, I didn't quite get that, Paulina. Can you repeat that question?
Yes. You're expecting, by the end of the year to reach leased occupancy of 96%, right?
Correct.
What are you expecting for physical occupancy?
For physical occupancy. Do you have that number, Jen? I mean, the way I would model it. I don't have the exact number off the top of my head, but.
Uh-huh.
The way I would model it is again, I'd look at the chart on page 21 that shows $4.9 million of rent coming in in 2022 from the leases that have been executed but not yet rent commenced. In 2023, that number is $15 million. Those are the numbers that you're ultimately looking to get at, but we can get back to you with the actual expectation of physical occupancy.
Thank you. The other question is, so can you provide or remind me what your expectation is for acquisitions, dispositions this year and in the intermediate term? I know back in 2019 you had a sort of guidepost, but I'm not sure if that stands today.
Yeah. I mean, historically we've done $200 million-$300 million of acquisitions each year, but we don't have a specific target because it's very much opportunistic based. I think, you know, over the course of the next 5 years, that's a reasonable goal. In terms of dispositions, I think we've stated that, likewise, you know, we've sold about $50 million a year, and I think that's probably, you know, within the range.
Thank you. If you don't-
Over an extended time period.
In your deck, you mentioned that of course, you highlight your focus on the D.C. and Boston corridor, but you also say with the ability to target other infill sub-markets.
Yeah.
I'm curious, what other markets outside this corridor have you seriously considered or you have in your radar for acquisition?
Yeah. I mean, well, first of all, we have nothing identified at the moment in the pipeline.
Uh-huh.
We do have a lot of expertise, and we have some properties in California, and we have a lot of expertise in Florida as well. We like those two markets just in principle because.
Mm-hmm.
They're highly densely populated markets consistent with our theme of operating in the most densely populated market today, which is the New York metro area. In order to get to those markets, we really would wanna have critical mass and size, and we realize, you know, that there are challenges in making that happen. Ideally, it would come from a portfolio transaction, very similar to the way we expanded when Mark and I were at Equity One with the Capital & Counties deal, that got us into California.
Right. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question we have is from Floris van Dijkum.
Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. You know, I would be interested maybe, Jeff, if you can comment a little bit on, you know, there's still a reticence from investors to really recognize the growth in urban markets. Certainly, you know, New York, you know, and San Francisco and D.C. and Boston are still viewed as sort of, you know, a little bit with disdain by a lot of people who think that everybody is moving away. Maybe if you could talk about why demand should grow. Then in particular, you talked about getting your overall occupancy up. Your shop occupancy is at 81.9%. What was the peak for your shop occupancy?
Obviously, shop rents are double what they are approximately for your anchor occupancy. Where do you think you can push that, and can you push that higher than where it was in the past? How do those leases look today? Sorry, it's a multifaceted question, but are you being able to drive higher fixed bumps on those rents as there's now more competition to lease space?
Yeah. All right, let me take the first part of your question, first. In terms of urban markets, look, the name of our company is Urban Edge Properties, and our properties are located on the edge of these urban markets. They are in, you know, first-ring suburban markets, principally, outside of the New York metro area. What we have seen since COVID is we have seen more activity at our centers. They're busier today than they were before COVID, in part because people are working from home, so they're visiting our centers more frequently. What the retailers are telling us is that they need more stores throughout our markets. Because our markets are so densely populated and supply-constrained, they're having a hard time finding boxes.
That's the whole thesis of the company, is operating in densely populated markets where it's hard to find space, which should allow us, over time, to push rent and get tenants to do unconventional things outside of their typical prototypes because they have no other options. All you have to do is drive up and down Central Avenue in Yonkers to see what the big box tenants are doing to get into that market. When we talk to retailers, you know, retailers are not telling us they favor the Sun Belt markets over getting more stores in the Northeast. Secondly, when you look at the productivity behind the retailers that operate throughout our portfolio, I mean, on average, according to Placer.ai, they're in the 75th percentile within their chain averages.
The Northeast and our stores in particular are producing some of the highest sales within the respective chains of our tenants. We are very bullish on the Northeast Corridor, particularly these first-ring suburban markets for retail demand. Chris or Mark, did you want to take the second part?
What I would tell you is that where our historicals were, we were at anchor at about 99% on occupancy on the anchor side and about 93% on shop space. That would get us up to 98%. Sorry, I just lost my train of thought.
Ninety-six.
That would get us up to the 98% occupancy. I apologize. I was confusing that with the 96. That gets us up to 98%, getting back to the historical question. Then on the rents, where we're doing the shop space, we're definitely seeing annually that we're able to get, we're pushing hard to get the 3%+ increase range, depending on who the tenants are. The anchors still seem to be stuck on that 10%, but we push in every angle possible.
Chris, can you just comment on the demand for shop space today that allows us to get back up to that 93%? Where are you seeing it coming from, and how is it now compared to, you know, three years ago?
Yeah. In the remarks, as I mentioned over and over about the categories, the food and beverage categories, the health and beauty aid categories, the personal services categories, the fitness categories, I think as people left the workforce and found other opportunities to make money, they invested in franchises of their own concepts. We're seeing a lot of demand from those types of categories, and it's much more robust post-COVID than it was pre-COVID. There's just no doubt with regard to the activity. As we also look at the fact with the cost of construction being where it is, there's very little new supply coming into the market. As spaces fill, as Jeff's been saying for the past years, we see occupancy increase across the board in the centers in our core markets.
We're able to secure these types of tenants, and these tenants are looking for quality real estate, and so even the ones that are already in market are looking to move from a C or B up to an A-type property. We're seeing a lot of that traffic. We're very confident in our ability to grow that small shop leasing back up into the low- to mid-90%. That'll be a key to getting us up to that historical occupancy level of the 97%+ to 98% occupancy. 96%, again, barring something catastrophic beyond our control in the markets, we're really pushing hard and feel very confident about reaching that 96% occupancy rate by the end of this year.
Floris, what I'm most excited about is as the market gets back to full capacity, there will then be a much smaller subset of spaces available for those tenants wanting to get into the market. We should be able to push rents higher than what we've been able to do over the last year, just because there's less space available.
Thanks, Jeff. I mean, it sounds like, I mean, just, you know, back of the envelope, if you increase your small shop by, you know, just over 10%, just alone on that, your operating margins are gonna be massively higher rents, and that's assuming just, on, you know, current rents. You know, that's gonna be even significantly higher if you're able to push rents. Maybe one last question from me, which is, Kohl's, you know, they're, you know, 3.7% of your rent.
They're paying very low average rents of $10.50 a sq ft or something like that. Maybe talk-
Yeah.
Comment on the whole situation and sort of, you know, is that a risk or is that, you know, an opportunity for you guys?
Look, I do think it's an opportunity. I mean, most of our Kohl's locations are stores that they opened when they came to New Jersey a long time ago. As I look through our rankings and see that on average, our Kohl's are operating in the 80th percentile of their chains with respect to sales and consumer traffic, we feel very good about how they're performing. I mean, we have some of the top performers in the chain. We're particularly excited about, you know, relocating, you know, what Placer identifies as the 8th most visited site out of 1,139 stores in the chain in Paramus, New Jersey to Bergen Mall. You know, we do believe in the concept.
We believe they operate in great locations within our portfolio and relative to the rents that they pay, you know, we feel very good about the inherent value of the real estate in those locations.
Thanks, Jeff. That's it for me.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The next question we have is from Chris Lucas from Capital One Securities.
Good morning, guys. I guess just two questions from me. One is going back to the shop space question, and I apologize if you talked about this in your prepared remarks. I missed the front end. Is there a component of the sort of 18.1% of vacant shop space that's effectively not leasable right now because it's in redevelopment or you're waiting for anchors to sort of position the space to be, you know, leased?
There is one. We are repositioning and taking some small shop out at Hudson Mall. That's one that's affecting some of the numbers that you're looking at, where we're gonna consolidate and roll them into anchor space. As we look to reposition-
We'll shove a little bit back at Yonkers as well. Those would be the two.
Those are the two, Yonkers and Hudson.
Okay. I guess the other question for me, and Mark, I'm gonna ask this one for you, and then there's a series of questions to follow up, but I'll do it one at a time. Which is related to percentage rents and just the inflationary environment we find ourselves in right now. Was there much percentage rent in your overall rental revenue? I don't know how important it is to sort of, you know, your revenue story.
Yeah. The answer is historically it has not been. You know, kinda averaging $1-$2 million, but given the trend that's happened, you know, it's picked up, which is what you saw. It's also the reason, Chris, why we decided, you know, we would add that disclosure because it has been a bit lumpy and we expect it to be. While we had a good chunk this quarter, it really pertained to, you know, sales that came in from last year-end reports. I think when you look at that trend, while we had about $1.2 million in Q1, we expect very modest levels in Q2, Q3, just because of the timing reporting. In Q4, we should see a moderate pickup, call it a half million.
All in, we would expect to have, you know, $2-3 million for the full year.
Mark, the $1.2 million in Q1 compares to what in Q1 last year?
About $ half a million. It was up, you know, $700,000.
Okay. Mark, just, if I stick with this, if I'm forecasting out, and I'm not looking for guidance, but I'm just trying to figure out. If I think about next year, so Q1 of 2023, are there tenants that are getting close to that break point and then just given the inflationary environment that you'll see some kick in where they've exceeded that break point? Or is that sort of a, or do you feel like that's a fairly, you know, stable number going forward relative to sort of what we saw this year?
Well, given the trends we made, we certainly would hope it's stable. From a year-over-year basis, you're saying kinda looking Q1 of this year to Q1 of next year. You know, we would hope-
Mm-hmm.
to see that same pickup just based on the trends.
Okay. Chris, just on this same topic, are you having conversations with tenants? Is this an area of focus for you guys, or is it really still just about maximizing base rent and bumps?
It is. We're using all that. Sales trend is important to us because we wanna that helps us get maximization and bumps and pushing the tenants we wanna do business with. It's all important. We pay attention to it, very much so.
Okay. Thank you. That's all I had this morning.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a final reminder. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. At this stage, there seems to be no further questions. Can I please hand over back to Jeff Olson?
Great. Well, thank you, everyone. We look forward to seeing you both at ICSC and at NAREIT. Please call us if you have any questions on this call. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.