Good morning, everybody, and welcome. Super happy to kick off the event, at least on the consumer goods side, with Urban Outfitters Inc. I have with me Frank Conforti, who is Co-President and Chief Operating Officer. Trisha Smith.
Chief Operating Officer.
Chief—oh, sorry.
Melanie's CFO.
I apologize.
It's early.
Chief Operating Officer. It's early. My caffeine hasn't kicked in yet. Trisha Smith, Global CEO of Anthropologie, and Melanie Marein-Efron, who is the Chief Financial Officer since 2020, joining the company earlier in 2013. Yes, exactly. So with that, I'm going to ask you to update your holiday, which just came out about 15 minutes ago.
Yeah.
Nice results. And certainly want to talk about the UO division.
Certainly.
As well as the others.
So one, thank you for doing this, and thank you all for being here. As many of you may have seen, we just posted fantastic results for a holiday period. It was ahead of what we were planning. Total URBN sales growth was 10%. Let me say that again. Total sales growth was up 10% for the holiday period. Peeling back, thank you. Yeah. I remember many years ago, John Kyees said, "When you have the wins, take them." And it was a good holiday. Peeling back the onion, that top-line growth was driven by a 6% retail segment comp. Within that, digital was high single-digit positive, and stores were low single-digit positive. So good to see growth driven by both channels there. Total retail segment was actually up 7%.
It's getting a contribution there from some of our new stores, and the productivity of our new stores there was nice to see. Nuuly was up 55%, contributing to the top line. That was driven by a 53% increase in subscribers versus last year. Wholesale was up 29%, driven by the Free People group. Within Wholesale, both Free People's original core collection as well as Movement performed really nicely. I'll just real quick give a quick note by brand within retail segment. I know Trisha Smith here, the CEO of Anthropologie, is very anxious to talk about Anthropologie. Also, a 10% comp. Anthropologie's retail segment for the period was up 10%. Free People, a fantastic quarter. Just a couple basis points behind Anthropologie at a 9% positive comp, retail segment comp for the quarter.
As you asked me to talk about, Urban Outfitters was down 4% for the period. That's obviously a significant improvement from where they've been, and we're really excited about that. Just to talk about the pieces there a little bit, because I think they're important. Within Urban Outfitters, Urban Europe actually was a high single-digit positive comp, so supporting that improvement in the trend. Really nice business there from Emma Wisden and team on the European business. Urban North America was high single-digit negative, so also improving from their trend. But the most important thing to point out for Urban Outfitters North America, and for you to remember, as we talked about the turnaround of Urban Outfitters, we had said that we thought the appropriate way to do it was to recover margin, and then you would see sales come.
Urban Outfitters North America reg price sales were positive for the holiday period. It's the first time I could say that for many years.
Yes.
That's just great to see. They did walk back and were able to successfully walk back from promotions. They were able to successfully walk back from the depth of their markdowns. You're seeing the fruits of the labor of alignment on the consumer, better inventory control, improved creative, and better product end. It's exciting to see that next step in their journey.
Great. Melanie, maybe just to finish out kind of what we always look at, the sales top line and then the inventory side of things. So how does that look for total company at the end of the quarter and positioning by the brands?
Based on our current outlook, we do expect inventory growth to be in line with sales growth, which is similar to the guidance we had given at the beginning of the quarter.
Fantastic. So I'll step back a second. We always start off these with kind of how do you think about the macro backdrop? We've had a couple of Fed cuts sort of like at the end of last year. Kind of seems like we have a little bit of a hot economy now. Everybody's beating sales. And so kind of when you think about this year and how you are looking and envisioning and planning the full year relative to last year, are you planning it kind of similar to last year, a little bit better than last year, or a shade more difficult than last year?
I mean, we're in the process of wrapping up budget season, so I think we always like to plan conservatively because otherwise the brands will just spend willy-nilly, and I'm joking as Trisha's right next to me. That's not the case, but as it relates to the consumer itself, I think if you've heard us for the last couple of quarters, we felt like the consumer was in a good place, and given just our holiday results and some of the positive sentiments and some of those things that have come out, I think we feel the same, if not better, about the consumer, and obviously, the things that we can control is our own performance and our own execution, and we feel really good about that going into next year.
Trisha, I don't know if you want to just talk about what you saw from the consumer and how the Anthropologie brand's feeling.
Yeah. I mean, I think we describe them as discerning, right, but certainly optimistic and really, really enthusiastic about newness. Really proud of our teams, as Frank mentioned, to deliver a 10% comp, but also doing that by reducing our markdowns within a very highly promotional season and holiday. So I think Frank's right. We plan conservatively. Part of our success has been enabled by our ability to be able to chase our business and implement more speed levers. So I think we'll continue to do that. But we feel that there's continued momentum and strength in our consumer at Anthropologie.
My next question was going to be for you, but it's going to be more on the creative side and on the fashion side. We've been talking about sort of this change and silhouette shift really started 2019, then we got kind of like paused for a few years, and then it's really started to kick in last two seasons. Anthropologie seems to be right in that sweet spot among all the brands. Can you talk about how historically these silhouette shifts evolve? We always get like, "Oh my God, it's already done." That's just not the case. It kind of like keeps going. Can you talk about where you think we are in that and how the Anthropologie consumer is responding to that?
Yeah. I think that probably shows up the most prevalently in just the strength of the bottoms business in general. So kind of across all categories, but particularly in denim, I would say. And denim's been strong for all brands. But certainly for Anthropologie, the categories almost doubled in the last three years. And I think there's definitely it's not about any specific silhouette, I would say. It's more around just the diversity, right, of fit and wash and proportion. But our very best-selling pant, the Colette pant, still continues to grow in strength. That certainly is a different silhouette than some of the best-selling and trending denim silhouettes. But I think just in general, there's a tremendous amount of newness. And then from a proportion standpoint, the newness in tops that go back to kind of the strength and more fullness on bottom is doing really well.
And exciting for us, I think, that our Pilcro brand is definitely outpacing that strength, and we feel like there's real value in what we can provide both from a price and fit and quality standpoint to continue to gain market share.
So going back to some of the P&L items, gross margin sort of like the topic du jour of this year. Can you talk about how you're positioned, either Melanie or Frank, on your viewpoint on tariffs should they come in? I know you've.
I just thought it was the topic du jour this year, right?
Exactly. Exactly. This moment, today, this morning.
So let me just take a step back and just talk about gross profit for the fourth quarter. Obviously, given the top-line performance, we feel very confident. I shouldn't say very, but we feel comfortable with our 100 basis points of improvement for the fourth quarter, which would be nice to see and would cap off a strong year of gross profit improvement. I think we believe that there's opportunity for us to continue to show gross profit improvement into next year. I think that would largely be driven by the Urban Outfitters brand, who has significant opportunity in that markdown rate. It's not that Anthropologie and Free People don't have some opportunity, but it's nowhere near at that magnitude that the Urban Outfitters brand has. As it relates to tariffs, it's hard to tell right now exactly what's going to happen in out-of-China origin, right?
There's a lot in the news, this percentage, that percentage, how much is a negotiating tactic. I think we've done a great job as an organization, and I just couldn't give more credit to the sourcing and the brand teams and diversifying our countries of origin and spreading that out. As a total company, and obviously, we've been working through reducing our penetration in China. Next year, we expect to be for our own brand product, and that's all I can speak to, about 5% in China, so that number is down significantly from where it was many years ago, so it's been a multi-year effort, and I feel really good about where we are and the flexibility that we have now in the model and being able to move from one origin to another if we need to, depending on exactly where the tariffs have landed.
It's great to have Trisha here because I think she's been working more closely and gives some more context to how we've been able to execute such a significant change from our countries of origin.
Yeah. I mean, I think Frank's right. We're very, I think, in a strong position with our production and sourcing teams. We've been working for the last three years in dual sourcing, some of our largest programs, working more strategically with our factories, and successfully moving a lot of our production out of China. So feeling like not only does that give us some protection against future tariffs, but also, I think, a little bit more diversity in our supply chain overall. So I'm feeling really good about Anthropologie and really where all the brands are in terms of our supply chain strategies and production strategies.
Great. So now we're going to get into the actual brands themselves. Trisha, I'll stay with you first and foremost. You joined in 2021.
Yep.
The business is so different. When we were with you last summer, I mean, you kind of went through the narrative. I'd like you to share with everybody kind of what you did, what you saw when you came in, and how dramatically you've changed the business to be more predictable. Last year, the proxy kind of indicated low-teens segment margins. Where do you think they can go in the future from here?
Yeah. I think it's been a bit of a journey. I'm incredibly proud of our teams. We have delivered 15 consecutive comp sales growth, and then eight of those quarters have been double-digit operating profit growth. So the foundation was laid in terms of our transformation for Anthropologie starting a little over three years ago. And I would say the most significant was really getting grounded and rooted, as it always is, I think, in who our customer is. Very fortunate to have a very loyal group of customers over the years that have loved Anthropologie. But really, I think my job was getting our team focused on introducing our brand to a new generation of customers and really getting focused on the millennial generation and all that came with that.
Along with that, it was, I think, building up a digital marketing and a data analytics team that could help drive customer acquisition that complemented the retention efforts. And that's going exceptionally well. So we're in our second year of double-digit customer acquisition. And our customer growth has grown about 30% in the last several years with new customers growing up by almost 50%. So I think first really grounded and rooted on our customer strategy, but then it was really ensuring that we modernized our product assortment to be able to meet the needs of those customers.
And that has come with our merchant teams really performing exceptionally well, introducing new brands, new categories, really accelerating the growth of our own brand business, and then really thinking about the way we show up as a creatively founded brand from an experience standpoint and investing in our store environments and then improving the digital experience for our customers. So those have been the pillars of our strategy. They will continue to be the pillars. We will continue to evolve those over time. But we are proud of our teams and happy with where we are today.
Great. Let's move to Free People and FP Movement. I don't know, Melanie, if you want to take this one or maybe a combination. But really talking about last year, again, in the proxy, FP, the division did a 17.4% segment margin, which is another woohoo clap. That's huge. So talk about where you think it can go from here. And then FP Movement's a separate entity, right? You talk about the company having five brands now, where FP Movement's kind of really the growth vehicle. So if you can talk about both of those.
Yeah. Exceptional performance last year by the Free People brand. I think they have the opportunity to hit that high teens that they did last year, and that was due to record low markdown rates. I think when we think about how we plan and model both the Free People and the Anthropologie business going forward, they have the opportunity to hit those types of numbers. But we think about a mid-teens go-forward operating profit rate as where those businesses should be. And obviously, Free People has been continually delivering there. Within the Free People group, if you will, yes, there is FP Movement, which is our fast-growing athletic brand, which is performing exceptionally well. I think we broke it out in the release this holiday period, delivering a 23% comp. We're just super excited. It's performing really, really well with strong partners and wholesale.
Our new stores, which we're going to open about 25 this year, depending on exactly where January lands from a weather perspective, but we're going to open up 25 new stores this year that are performing incredibly well at, and in some instances, better than productivity of the Free People collection brand from a sales per sq ft basis and really strong four walls, and everywhere we go where we have a Free People store that has a little bit of movement in the store, the customer constantly comes in and says, "When are you bringing an FP Movement store to my city? When are you bringing an FP Movement store to my area?" so the awareness is really building, and the excitement is building for the brand.
We fully believe our goal of reaching a billion-dollar brand for FP Movement is more than within reach and is a very realistic opportunity for the top line of that business.
Great. And then what I call the golden nugget, which is going to be UO, segment margins last year were negative 4.5%. And I think the secret unlock to the stock is actually going to be in that quarter of the business that's in those sales at the UO brand. So obviously, this seems like the inflection quarter in product and everything that Shea has been doing. What more are we going to see from the UO brand as we go into the spring season in terms of product? Where do you need to be in terms of that mix of price points, etc.? And does it just get better from this point forward? So if you can talk about kind of how we should think about the prospects for a continued UO turn.
Sure. I don't think they'd say they're where they need to be, but they would say they're seeing improvement, and they're on the right trajectory, right? So they were able to lose less in the third quarter. It looks like they're on track to do that again in the fourth quarter. We didn't think that this turnaround was going to happen overnight. There's going to be a process here of retraining that consumer and lapping a lot of promotional activity on a year-over-year basis. And it's not that you can just not run the promo and say, "Oh, look, we didn't do it." No, you need to have good product behind it. Otherwise, you're going to have to run that promotion, and you're going to have to run that markdown. And they're in the period of where they're being able to do that right now.
As Trisha said, I think what Shea did when she came into the business, the first thing you do is you align on the consumer. And having a leader in that business that did not have somebody in the building day in and day out for the better part of a year is making all the world of a difference. So Shea's done a great job of building the team, keeping everybody on the same page, aligning on who the consumer is, setting those goals, and setting those strategies. And we know that this is going to be a long journey, and the first part of that journey is going to be about margin recapture. And that's what you started to see in the third quarter. That's what we are seeing in the fourth quarter. And that will improve Urban Outfitters' bottom line.
But we know that we need to drive top-line sales, right? And the team is very focused on doing that as well. And then that will be the additional incremental leg of pulling back from that loss and getting the business back to profit where they'll be able to start to leverage off on occupancy and other expenses.
Yeah. I mean, just having covered your stock for 20 some odd years, every single time, one of the brands, whether it be Anthro or Urban, was going to turn, you would say in rank order, look for reg price cost at digital first, and then it seemed like they happened simultaneously, but it was always about that leading indicator that was strong full-price sales, and then everything else kind of would follow from there.
You talk about digital. Sorry to interrupt, an important stat that I know Shea would want me to share because it's another first time, right? It's the first time we've had reg price positive for a period in time. It's also the first time we've had positive net new customers on digital. We've been struggling around being able to walk away from promotions and that there's a certain customer that just comes to your website for a markdown and for a promotion and being able to get new customers and get the right new customer, right? Get a customer who's there because the fashion's right, the product's right, the marketing's right.
I think they hit 10% new customer growth through the holiday period on the website, which was another great sign to see that these things are just checks that the turn is coming and that we're in the process of heading in the right trajectory.
Great. So I want to make sure that we hit Nuuly 54%-55%.
55%. Yeah. 55% top line on 53% subscribers.
So, maybe Melanie, can you talk about sort of the profitability nature of it and just shape the year for us? Because I remember in the beginning of the first half of the year, we had the new DC that was kind of pressuring kind of the segment margin there. But imagine it's nicely inflected. And should we think about it as go forward sustainably profitable?
Yes. It's been a great year for Nuuly. We talked about the significant sales growth both for the whole year as well as in the holiday period, but from a profitability perspective, you're right. The first half of the year was brought down a little bit by the startup of our KC facility, which provides a lot of capacity increases so that we can double the capacity or actually triple the capacity in total for Nuuly. So now that that startup is behind, you've seen an improvement in the profitability of that brand in the second half of the year, and we continue to believe that that brand eventually can be accretive to the profitability of URBN, and that will be from improved leverage, largely from logistics, which still has some opportunity to go. It will take some time.
So we still have some more automation coming next year, but there will be improvement next year as Nuuly has its first profitable year this year. And we look forward to improvement going forward as they continue to leverage expenses and also leverage the logistics leverage as well.
Great. And then, Frank, I'm just going to. I know what the answer is, but I just want you to share with the audience why Nuuly succeeds where others don't. Part of it is just the reliance. You have the DNA of the merchandising in your soul. So it kind of like it's symbiotic with kind of doing the rental business. But you are the only one that is reaching profitability at scale, growing the size you're growing. I mean, if you were a standalone company, you'd have like a tremendous multiple on just that piece of the business. So just share with us what the secret sauce is.
I feel like you're right, and you sort of gave a bit of the answer. I can't speak to what others do, but I think Nuuly was very smart. We spent a lot of time researching this concept, researching this space, researching the consumer that we wanted to go after, making sure that the technology was frictionless and met the customer needs, had an ease of use to it, but really leveraging what URBN is good at. It's what Trisha does incredibly well and Anthropologie does really well. It's being a good merchant, right? It's having a compelling assortment out there that delivers newness on a regular basis that the consumer gets excited about. Certainly, Nuuly benefits from its sister brands, right? You've got Anthropologie, Free People, and Urban Outfitters, some of the best brands that are out there.
And they're deeply penetrated into Nuuly's assortment. And then you've got hundreds of other brands that are out there as well. And we balance being able to hit trend, being able to deliver a lot of newness, and treating it almost like it's a retail brand from how we build the assortment and how we speak to the consumer, I think, is a big part of the success of the rental platform. And as Melanie mentioned, I think we're going to hit our first year of profitability, which is fantastic to see. We think we can continue to build upon that for the next several years, reaching 10% operating profit. And the top line for us, we have said consistently, we think it's a $1 billion business, and we still believe that. What I would tell you is I don't know how high it's going to get.
I still think it's very early days for this concept. The retention of the consumer is really impressive. Once they get on board, how much they like it and how sticky the concept is.
Great. In our last two minutes, I'm going to do what I do every year. I'm going to ask each of you for a prediction, whether it's in the finance, in the creative, football for you.
Uncle Bean.
Eagles didn't do too bad. So I'll start with Melanie. Just of the brands, where do you feel the best about? What is kind of your thing in 2025?
I just think we're entering the year in a really positive perspective from all of the brands. I think that. I'm sorry. The beginning of the turnaround for Urban North America, the strength of the Free People and Anthro brands in the holiday period is a really exciting way to enter the year. That's what my prediction is, that things continue. I'm super excited about our team's progress that we're making on digital product creation. When I think about AI-enabled design, when I think about how AI is enabling our most creative teams to be that much more creative, I think it's exciting how that applies to the way we're looking at pattern and color and design.
And then I think also what that will mean to our ability to be able to further enable speed, which I had mentioned earlier, tends to be where we gain so much efficiency and where we gain just accuracy and ability to stay closer to the timing in which we have to make decisions around product. So super excited about what we have been calling it as digital product creation and AI enablement in that.
Fantastic.
So last year, I predicted, and I'm a die-hard Phillies fan, that the Phillies would win the World Series, and Bryce Harper would win MVP. And like every other or most other sports fans, I believe I have some sort of impact on the team, and maybe I jinx them. So using reverse psychology this year, I think Soto is going to win the MVP, and the Mets will win the World Series. And obviously, I hope that doesn't happen.
Look at that. Right on time. Thank you.
I just want to say thank you, everyone.
Yeah. Thank you so much. And congratulations on the holiday.
Thank you very much.
Fantastic.
Thanks.