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Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2025

May 28, 2025

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Good morning again, everyone. I am Harshita Rawat, Bernstein Senior Analyst covering payments, processors, and IT services, and I'm delighted to be joined today by Chris, Visa CFO at Bernstein's 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. Chris, thank you for joining us today.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Thank you for having me. This is a really great conference.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Let's get the macro question out of the way. Let's talk about the overall spending environment. What are you seeing in terms of current spending trends both domestically and across borders?

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah, again, thanks for having me. It's good to see everyone. Yeah, I mean, there is a lot to process, right? And consumers have been processing that. We could see, like all of you can, there's more uncertainty, certainly in the sentiment. It reflects in the consumer sentiment. It certainly reflects in headlines. When there is a little bit of noise in the system, as we see today, we always do what we always do, which is really rely on facts and data. What are the facts as we see them? The facts as we see them is that employment numbers look pretty good. Wage growth remains relatively stable. Inflation has moderated relatively, and that's translated to a relatively resilient consumer. Those are the facts. The data, as we see it, has also been relatively stable.

This is what we talked about in our earnings call. Our earnings call was at the end of April, April 29th. As we shared, really through the end of April, payments volume, transactions in the U.S. and abroad, even coming off of a relatively strong quarter that we saw in December, had remained relatively stable. That was all a good thing, and we shared all that on April 29th. Now we are, what are we, about a month later? I could share a little bit of an update with what we have seen effectively through the month of May, which is in the U.S., payments volume data primarily has remained in line with what we are seeing in April, what we saw in the month of April, which means for the quarter, it is actually tracking a little bit better than Q2, again, reflecting the resilience in consumers.

That's the U.S., and we're seeing similar trends in most major markets around the world as well. Again, general stability to what we saw in Q2 through the first almost three weeks. That's actually data through the 21st of May. Now, cross-border, I want to spend a minute maybe on cross-border and unpack that a little bit. There's been more moving parts, as you know, cross-border pre-COVID, COVID, post-COVID recovery that differed in different parts of the world. We saw, if you go back a couple of quarters previous to the December quarter, the last two quarters of our fiscal year had reached a sort of a stable sort of level, and then we saw an acceleration in the December quarter, particularly in travel cross-border.

We saw it moderate back in our fiscal first quarter, the March quarter, back to the kind of the levels that we had seen in the two quarters prior to December. That is kind of the four-quarter trend that we saw. There was some noise in the system too that we talked about, with timing of Easter, timing of Ramadan that impacted March and the month of April. We tried to distill all that, and there were obviously some currency things happening as well.

Putting aside sort of sentiment, we tried to distill all that and we said, okay, what we expect for the rest of the year is to just sort of cut through the noise and say, if you take the average of March and April, which normalizes for some of these timing things, as well as takes into account some of the currency things, that that would be what we would expect to see for the rest of the year. Through the month of March, or at least through the three weeks of March, the quarter to date, it's playing out generally as we had anticipated, which also means that the three weeks in May is a little bit below the month of April. That was anticipated, and that's playing out the way that we thought for the quarter.

If things stay on track, obviously, we're going to finish the quarter a little below Q4 of last year. That's, I know there's a lot of math camp in that, but net-net, it's kind of playing out as anticipated. Obviously, a month still to go. As I said, we're seeing these trends sort of move around a bit, but largely as anticipated, and we'll see how the rest of the quarter plays out here in about a month and a half when we report out.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Chris, staying on this kind of macro topic for just a bit. I know you noted on the earnings call that you're quite diversified in your cross-border business and no single corridor is more than 25% of your cross-border volumes. Taking a step back, how should we think about the recession sensitivity on cross-border? I know travel is 60%, e-comm is 40%. Arguably, both have a little bit of sensitivity to macro.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah, it is really one of the great strengths of the Visa business is the diversification that you talked about. It applies broadly across the business. We have more exposure to different spend categories, geographical exposure, everyday spend, discretionary spend, high, low ticket, credit debit, the breadth of the business. That applies, as you put it, to our cross-border business. The cross-border business, as most of you know, is an important business for us for a bunch of reasons, including it has premium economics attached to it. As I just talked about, cross-border also has been one of the most variable numbers where payment volume and transactions have a consistency that's really a great part of the business because of all the what's gone on in the world over the last five years, we've seen more variability in cross-border.

One of the differences is e-commerce is a bigger part of the business, as you talked about. Pre-pandemic, it was lower than it is today. Now it's about 40% of the business. When you talk about sort of the diversification and the macro sensitivity to cross-border, there's a couple of things that I'd point out. One is, again, that 40% e-commerce is more associated with everyday spend than travel, hotels, lodging, et cetera, et cetera. E-commerce has, cross-border e-commerce has more everyday spend categories in there. Not only is it just like e-commerce is only retail type goods, e-commerce, even within the categories of e-commerce, there's quite a bit of diversification. It is your retail goods. You might be buying a pair of shoes from Europe. You might be buying sunscreen from Asia, for example. You also might be buying retail services.

You may be moving money cross-border via remittances. You might be paying off a BNPL loan cross-border. There's also B2B in there, like advertising, for example. Then there's even like crypto purchases cross-border. Even within the categories of e-commerce, there's a lot of variety and diversification, putting aside the fact that the e-commerce itself is more resilient. Now, none of this means we're immune, of course, to macro sensitivity. As you pointed out, we have great geo-diversification with both issuing. You mentioned the reference to the 25%. We have five regions that we categorize our business by, and none of those regions, no single region is more than 25%. That's on the issuing side, both for e-commerce and for travel. Also important to note, even on the acquiring side, on the inbound travel side, we have great diversification as well.

I know there's a lot of questions about the U.S. The U.S. is actually one of the smaller from an acquired inbound travel volume standpoint as well. There is great diversification of the business. That volume diversification also applies on cross-border revenue. We have great distribution and diversification on the revenue side of the business. Again, not immune, but there are attributes to the business, natural diversification, and things that we've done to drive things like e-commerce that really helps on the sensitivity side.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Chris, there's a lot of exciting things happening at Visa. It's been a very busy time for you. We heard from you at the invest today, which is great. Since then, you've had a lot of partnership announcements. A few weeks ago, you had your 2025 product drop. There are a bunch of announcements that came out of it that I want to ask you about. Starting with the agentic commerce. You introduced Visa Intelligent Commerce for developers building AI agent payments. You have an impressive, very impressive partner list there. Tell us about how Visa sees the future of commerce and why it will be a preferred way to pay as agents make purchases.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah, we held our first ever Visa product drop event. It was on April 30th. It was a terrific event. You heard from Ryan McInerney, our CEO, Jack Forestell, Chief Product Officer, Oliver Jenkyn, who runs our global markets. We had a special guest, Sarah Friar from OpenAI attend. It's all available online if you have not had a chance to look at it. It's a compact 90-minute presentation. Please go out and take a look. There's some exciting stuff there. It was a great event for me for a couple of reasons. One, it really gave us a chance to tell our story around everything that we've been doing in the company around product innovation and thought leadership. It's a great platform for us to go do that.

One of the most exciting advancements is, of course, we talked about, as you called it, agentic AI or what we call intelligent commerce. Visa has been in the AI game for a long, long time. We've talked about it in the context of fraud prevention, detection, scoring. We were one of the first to bring this to market with a number of our services decades ago using sort of the traditional forms of AI to really provide that broad scoring. The purpose of that generation of AI was really around protecting the consumer. Our vision for the future with generative AI is that we can really bring to bear services and innovation that really empowers the consumer. We announced a number of services that enables us to go do that, and we're really excited about that.

How do we empower consumers in a world where commerce continues to evolve? Much like, I think that generative AI has the ability to transform commerce, much in the same way that e-commerce transformed the purchasing experience from face to face. I mean, we think it's that significant. We announced, as you called it, agentic commerce, as we call it, intelligent commerce. What is intelligent commerce? It's a set of services that really empowers consumers to be able to buy, enable an agent to buy on their behalf in a safe and secure way. It's a number of services that allow developers then to provide services that enable that experience as well. A handful of services that we announced that enabled us to go do that. One are AI cards.

The cards obviously need to be advanced and involved in order to support this new experience. It really takes advantage of tokenization technology, which is the modern credentials. It takes your traditional card credentials, digitizes it in a form that's more safe and secure. Authentication. Your agent has to be able to obviously be granted permission to transact on your behalf, authenticated securely in that manner. Secondly, it's the evolution of our data tokens to have a very personalized experience. The AI agent, with your permission, with consent, is enabled to then personalize that experience for you. At our product drop event, you saw Jack give a really great example. His example, of course, was he's a traveler that's going to Florida, and he has certain likes.

Most travelers, if you just go do a standard search, you might find the beach and you might find things like this. Jack, maybe Jack likes to hike or maybe he likes to fish. The technology, the personalization aspect of it, really understands who he is and says, hey, if I'm planning a trip to Miami, here are the things Jack likes to do. Here are the things that we know will, the types of hotels he likes to stay at, the types of restaurants, the airlines he likes to fly at, and it serves it all up for you. Where that breaks down though in the commerce world is that once you get to that point, even using platforms like OpenAI, what happens next? You say, okay, I want to transact. It sends you to five different websites.

You have to enter, you have to authenticate, you have to log in, you have to enter your credit card information. There might be like a thing that gets sent to your phone to authenticate that to make sure it knows who you are. You have to enter a shipping address and a billing address and a PIN or a code. I mean, it's a very sort of traditional experience. None of that, there's a lot of friction in that today. Of course, the vision for intelligent commerce is all of that is authenticated in the back end. That experience can just continue by saying, the agent could tell you, okay, here's the things that we think you'll like. Would you like to proceed? Hit yes. If you hit yes, then it all gets done sort of on your behalf.

Imagine how much friction gets removed from that process. That is what intelligent commerce is. It's obviously early days. It will enable that whole process to work. We had great partners, as you pointed out, OpenAI, Perplexity, Anthropic, Mistral, Microsoft, Stripe lined up. They all share this vision. It's going to be super exciting to see how it evolves.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Fantastic. Chris, a couple of weeks ago, you also announced a partnership with Stripe's stablecoin infrastructure firm, Bridge. Given that this is a very topical topic, how do you see the path for stablecoin adoption, for example, for cross-border payments? What role can Visa play here?

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah, we view the advancement of crypto, especially in the form of stablecoin, as a really interesting and large opportunity for Visa. We've been in the stable or in the crypto business, if you could call it that, for some time in sort of multiple ways. I would categorize it in three sort of categories: cards, settlement, and programmable money. Those are the three opportunities as we see it. We think stablecoins in particular are interesting. It can revolutionize or can advance the way money moves around the world, the infrastructure for money movement. Of course, the unlocking the promise of programmable money, I think, is super interesting. What have we been doing historically? Historically, we've done a lot in the first two of the three that I mentioned, which is cards.

We worked with, going back sort of pre-stablecoin even, we worked with Crypto.com and Coinbase to allow Visa-linked cards, crypto-linked cards to be able to spend their crypto. Since we launched that several years ago, we have done roughly $95 billion of purchase volume. We have enabled the cards to be able to spend that, about $25 billion in spending on those cards. Most of that volume was actually just buying and selling crypto. With stablecoin, obviously, it creates a whole new set of use cases. We have also been working with it in settlement in our own operations. Settlement has not really been modernized for some time. With stablecoin, we have the opportunity to potentially even do seven-day settlement, which I think is really interesting. We have done about $225 million of settlement using stablecoin.

It really was generated by our clients who had asked us, gosh, we operate our business using stablecoin. We have a lot of our clients who like to spend stablecoin. Can we just think of stablecoin as another form of currency that we can then settle in? Visa settles in multiple currencies, dozens of currencies today. We said, okay, that seems pretty reasonable. Let's try that out. It continues to grow. It's relatively small today, but we think we'll do over $1 billion in settlement over the next 12-18 months. The third, of course, is programmable money. With stablecoin, one of the really interesting things is that it is digital currency. It is digital money. We've launched a service called Visa Token Asset VTAP. I can't remember the exact acronym right now off the top of my head.

Sorry about that. We have a service that allows issuers to burn their own stablecoin. What's programmable money? Programmable money is like code. It turns money into code. As code, a financial institution can design and create very specific use cases. For example, you can create a loan that automatically disperses itself if certain criteria are met. You could do that within the code of the money itself. We think it's exciting. We think there's some early days and a bunch of use cases that are in process. We're launching this summer with BBVA as the first to try out this sort of programmable money opportunity pilot. I think it's super interesting. I do think that there's a bunch of use cases. Like I said, you talked about the Bridge Stripe announcement. I think that's another interesting one.

With stablecoin, it's really tapping into the acceptance footprint, right? $150 million merchant locations around the globe that will be enabled. Bridge will be another one of our partners that enables their customers to be able to tap into that acceptance network. I think there's a lot of interesting use cases that are we're still in early days, but a lot of interesting use cases to come around cards, settlement, and programmable money.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

It's so interesting because crypto and stablecoins are often perceived as risk to Visa. Here we are kind of talking about the opportunities that it's creating for you.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Definitely see it.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Let's talk about how Visa is changing. Almost a year ago, you announced a number of changes to the Visa card, including flex credentials and Tap to Everything. We talked about the AI-ready cards already. Tell us about how the Visa card is changing and how that's resonating with your partners.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah, the flexible credential, there's been incredible reception to the flexible credential. What is the flexible credential? It is a single Visa credential that enables the consumer to basically toggle between funding sources, whether that's credit or debit. Initially launching with credit, debit, and buy now, pay later. We've seen a lot of interesting, it's only been basically out in the market for like two years now, but already there's a lot of very interesting ideas and innovation that's coming up. We launched initially in early 2023 with SMBC in Japan, something they called Olive. They've grown very rapidly. They have millions of consumers now on their Olive card, their flex credential card. They saw in 2024, 150%+ growth in their credential holders for the flex credential. What's even more interesting is that flexible credential holders spend more.

They spend 40% more than their cardholders that do not have the flex credential. I think we sort of hit a nerve in the industry of companies that are interested. Once we started with SMBC and Olive, it has expanded. We launched with a firm in the US with their 1.7 million cardholders about six months ago. We announced a launch with Liv in the UAE. Liv is the first that is doing multi-currency. I talked about debit and credit. With Liv, you could actually switch between currencies. That gives users ultimate flexibility. There has been sort of an explosion of ideas, not coming from us per se, but coming from the industry, which has also been the super exciting part of it. There are over 200 use cases now that are in pilot for different ways to use flexible credentials.

We think that we're very, very excited about that. At our product drop event, we announced more expansion. Klarna is going to be a new partner for flex credential. They're going to be the first to bring it to Europe. That'll be exciting. There are a number of processors that are on board as well. FIS and Fiserv are two that come to mind. Again, sort of early days, initially like starting two years ago with a single client, expanding, getting people excited, getting participants excited, really leading with our innovation and one that we're excited to see continue to grow.

I want to go back to your recent investor day and revisit the Visa as a service construct. Remind us about what the unbundled Visa capabilities unlock for you in terms of different payment types, for example, account to account. Similar to crypto, interestingly, account to account is often kind of viewed as a risk to Visa, and Visa as a service kind of turns that into an opportunity.

Yeah, this is a good one that we could talk a lot about. Visa as a service and the evolution of our network strategy and A to A. Let's try to tackle both of those. One of the really interesting parts about our industry, of course, that you all know, everyone in this room knows really, really well, is that payments at its core is a digital transaction. Always has been, even when digital was much more rudimentary than it is today. Even at our founding, Dee Hock, who's our founder, referred to payments as digital, as data moving across the world at the speed of light. Obviously that started very small, sort of rudimentary data moving across what banks, across a single bank.

Today, in the number of decades that we've been around, 14,500 financial institutions, 4.8 billion traditional card credentials, 150 million merchants around the world, 10 billion plus 13 billion tokenized credentials out there in the world, all moving data around at the speed of milliseconds around the world every day. The inherent digital nature of the industry makes it right for innovation, makes it right for all the sort of great ideas from all the participants who can plug in. I think that's what makes Visa so special, actually, is that early on, we viewed ourselves as a very open platform. We were the first to open up this platform. We were the first to open it up for other participants, to other banks six decades ago. We were the first to open it up for developers and really become a network of networks.

As a platform, it's always been the source of whether you're a fintech, whether you're a crypto player or a wallet today, you know that you can rely on Visa to enable the network, the benefits of the network. That's what makes sort of Visa, again, special. It's the network, it's the safety, the security, the reliability, but also the advanced features, tokenization, chargeback, fraud dispute, like all those things that sort of take place. What is Visa as a service? It's really the evolution of that network strategy. It's our open platform, it's our infrastructure layer, it's our developer platform, it's a set of services that are on top of that. That's really been the secret sauce for VisaNet and the success of Visa for so many years with the explosion of players in the ecosystem.

What we really recognize also is that there's an opportunity now to unbundle this stack and make the componentized parts of the Visa stack or the Visa as a service stack available to participants of all flavors, whether you're running in the Visa network or you're running outside the Visa network. You brought up A to A. I think that's a great example of what's happening with A to A. This question that you posed, is it an opportunity or is it a threat? I think there's elements of so much of our business where we do compete and we do see opportunities to sort of grow alongside of. I think it's also maybe helpful just to refresh on A to A. We have sort of a three-pronged approach. We compete with our card products.

We offer A to A type services through Tink and Visa Direct for use cases that make sense. Third, we'll continue to grow with value-added services on top of A to A. If I sort of combine the Visa stack strategy with what's happening with A to A, I think there's a really great example. We have a service called Visa Advanced Authorization. It's been in existence since the 1990s. It was sort of the early version of AI. It really took all the payment intelligence that we have across our system and gave our clients the ability to score fraud, assign a score to fraud risk, and provide that score to the issuer in milliseconds, and then they could determine whether they want to take that risk or not. That was uniquely VisaNet. It's been very successful over its time. It's stopped.

Today, we have great sort of adoption from our clients. We estimate that it stops about $30 billion of fraud annually. Sort of a two-step approach to Visa's service. One, we said, okay, can we benefit from the industry, the ecosystem, even if it's not on a Visa transaction, can it benefit from VAA? We said, yeah, I think that's a logical thing. I think we got a lot of value. In 2023, we launched a network-agnostic VAA service. In 2024, it scored over 250 million transactions already. Again, great sort of progress. We took that one step further with our Visa as a service strategy and said, okay, in the A to A world, we know that A to A is growing in many parts of the world.

We also know that fraud is a problem in the A to A world, where A to A transactions are very simple one-way transactions that are permanent. We said, of course, we think Visa, we want Visa, and we think Visa is the best way to pay and be paid, but we also acknowledged and recognized that there's payments that are happening in A to A networks. We said, we think we could add a tremendous amount of value there. We launched Visa A to A Protect. We're piloting it in the U.K. We're working with eight banks, I believe, that represent about 50% of the RTP networks there, with over a 50% fraud detection rate. In Argentina, now we've scored 8 billion transactions already, and with a 70%+ fraud protection rate.

We are piloting with 10 other banks now, including a handful in Brazil that represent about 20% of the PIX volume as well. We could compete with card. We can certainly sell our own A to A services, but I think the vast opportunity across A to A in different markets around the world is an interesting one. That is a great example of the Visa stack and how we will continue to drive success alongside other competing networks as well.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Let's switch gears and talk about the core of Visa, consumer payments. We've historically grown several percentage points faster than addressable consumer spend. I know in some markets, such as the U.S., that delta relative to consumer spend has narrowed. I know we've talked about it, some of that is kind of cyclical, depending on goods versus services spend. Can you expand upon this? How do you see Visa's consumer volume growth prospects relative to addressable spend growth?

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

We spent a good amount of time at our investor day that you referenced earlier in our conversation. Again, that's all available online as well. Jack Forestell does a much thorougher job than I'm going to do here in the next 90 seconds talking about consumer payments, because it is at the heart of Visa's business. It's the business that we built our business on for many decades. As excited as we are about VAS and new flows and CMS growth, we still think that there's tremendous runway in front of us in our consumer payments business. We sized it, $23 trillion of volume around the world that moves in less effective means that we think would be better served running on a Visa network. Now, comparatively, Visa's consumer payments volume last year was about $11.5 trillion.

The addressable opportunity still in front is more than 2x the size of our business today, as successful as we've been. There are lots of ways that we're going after that. That $23 trillion is comprised of cash and check. It is comprised of ACH and other forms of electronic payment that we think are less effective and less modern, the volume that runs on domestic schemes around the globe. We have a real opportunity to go after that, to continue our growth. As you pointed out, we've historically grown a lot faster than underlying PCE. It is about six points. If you go back to 2018 to 2023, underlying PCE grew about four. We grew about 10 in payment volume. That is a six-point delta. That was about seven outside the U.S., about five in the U.S., averaging to about six.

That gap has shrunk over the last X number of years, as you pointed out. I'll also point out that revenue growth has been very, very stable and healthy through that time period as well, reflecting, again, the strength of our business. We spend a lot of time on this. Let me just sort of dissect that a little bit further. There's a bunch of markets where the digital penetration is very, very high. Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, New Zealand, Canada, Korea. We continue to grow really healthy in those markets, well above underlying PCE. In places like New Zealand, Netherlands, and Norway, we're growing nine percentage points above underlying addressable spend. How have we continued to do that? We continue to do that through advancements in our technology, like tap to pay. Tap to pay is a phenomenal tap to pay, as you all know it.

I'm sure tap every single day, but the underlying infrastructure and the underlying effort, it actually was a heavy lift to get there because you have to have NFC-enabled cards, which means we have 4.8 billion cards in the world today. Think about all the issuers having to modernize those cards, replace them with chip-enabled NFC cards, or in your phone. We have 150 million merchants around the world. You had to get point-of-sale terminals that accept NFC cards. That was a heavy lift. Once you got there, what happened is that it's become habit. The great thing about habit—there are certain habits that are daily, like transit. Transit was sort of a Trojan horse into tap to pay.

As people tapped for transit, for the billions of people around the world to take transit, they also then would tap at the grocery store, at the restaurant, et cetera, et cetera. The halo effect of all that is that once you start tapping, you actually spend more. We find that payment volume is 15% higher for people that tap, not just because of the one transaction, but because they tap and there's no friction and it's a smoother, easier process at all the places they shop and conduct commerce at. There's more volume, there's 18% more transactions. Places like Norway, Netherlands, New Zealand, tapping has been a great tapping and innovation has been a great leading indicator of success. We're also gaining share from domestic schemes. In many markets, the domestic schemes, they serve a purpose. They've been quite successful.

We just think that we have a better value proposition, international acceptance, authentication. Again, our advancements with our network strategy around fraud detection and AI, we think we have a very good solution there. We continue to win share against competitors as well. We will continue to win, even in markets that have high digital penetration or low cash. In our investor day presentation, Jack then went through a number of reasons why consumer payments will continue to grow, putting aside even the Norway example here for a second. He actually went through, in detail, six of them. A lot of them was based on our technology. We talked about Flex credential. We talked about A to A as an example. He went through three or four of these examples. Tap to everything, which I just talked about, is another unlock for that.

We talked about our focus on cross-border and affluent and A to A. There are six very distinct strategies that we're going after to continue to win in consumer payments. Add that all up, I know that's a very long answer to what seems like a very simple question, but when you add that all up, it gives us great confidence to say we're going to continue to grow our consumer payments business faster than the underlying spend. You add in the great momentum that we have with value-added services and with CMS, and I think you see why we're so confident.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

I know some of the stats you gave around share gains versus domestic schemes, for example, in continental Europe, Germany, France were really, really interesting, also at Investor Day.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yeah. I mean, Europe for us, if I could just sidebar for a minute on Europe. I mean, Europe is one of our most interesting and exciting opportunities for us. We classify that as a high-potential market in sort of our go-to-market approach. By that, we mean it's got mature, sophisticated digital infrastructure and penetration and still a high level of cash. There's $2 trillion of available cash in Europe today, which is about 20% of the available cash in the world. You have this sort of juxtaposition, a really sort of exciting juxtaposition of sophisticated, mature, advanced, mature markets, mature economies, and high cash. We continue to go after that in a significant way. As well as, that's just the cash part, then the thing that you just talked about, which is in France.

I was just in France last week and how we're competing against the local domestic scheme, very exciting. In Germany, in Italy, there's a significant share held by domestic schemes. I just think we have a stronger value proposition and we're going to continue to win share from them. We've invested a ton in Europe. Over the last five years, we've opened six new offices, doubled the amount of employees that we have there. We've added 10 million merchant locations. It's been sort of a fantastic—we've won share, as you pointed out, the share references. We've taken share from both the domestic schemes and from our global competitors. Europe is an exciting market for us.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Chris, let's switch gears and talk about a growing contributor to Visa's growth algorithm, value-added services. At the Investor Day, you laid out the addressable market for VAS at $520 billion. How did you size that? Looking forward, how should we think about the VAS growth algorithm with respect to new services, penetration of existing services, and geo-expansion?

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

We're incredibly excited and happy and just pleased with the progress that we've made with our value-added services, the execution, the market momentum, really the commercialization, the professionalization of the business within Visa. I think we're very proud of all of that. It's $8.8 billion in FY 2024, which is about 25% of our business and it grew at 20%. Anytime we have a quarter of our business growing 20%, I think as a CFO, it brings a smile to my face, I will say. One of the things that we did at Investor Day, and we've talked about this business for a while, but one of the things, the feedback we got from yourselves and your colleagues is that, gosh, it's exciting to see that revenue growth, but we don't really understand what it is.

You talked about many, many services in there, but can you give us a little bit more disclosure and color about what constitutes value-added services? That is one of the important things that we did in our February Annual Stay. We decomposed the $8.8 billion into four portfolios. We called them issuing solutions, which are services for our issuer clients, acceptance solutions, services for our acceptance clients, risk and security services, which are a little bit sort of Visa-agnostic, but security services like VAA that I just talked about, and the fourth being advisory and other, which is consulting, advisory, marketing services, and open banking. Not only did we do that, we gave you the revenue sizing. Issuing solutions is the largest at over $3 billion, growing in the mid-teens. The smallest is advisory and other at $1.3 billion, growing 30%+ .

Again, four portfolios, all over a billion each, all growing in the mid-teens or even in some cases up to the 30s. A really sort of diverse business within itself. VAS isn't a single service, clearly. Anthony Cahill, who runs that business, or at least ran that business until some announcements this week, will share with you sort of the strategies by which we're going after each of them. Important to that was the addressable opportunity that you started the question with, which is the $500 billion+ . In each of those four categories, I think the smallest TAM that we see is $95 billion, and each of the other three portfolios goes after somewhere between $125 bilion-$150 billion of opportunity.

Enormous numbers, enormous numbers relative to the as big as the $8.8 billion is, it's an enormous market opportunity. It's the revenue opportunity, right, for all the participants that play across the 200 services that constitute these four portfolios. We're going to compete hard to go after all of those. We're very excited about that. You asked about the growth algorithm. I think the growth algorithm, aside looking at all the sort of individual products and the TAMs that they participate in and will they, can we take share, can we win, can we execute. Another sort of simplifying construct to think about our growth algorithm is around sort of three levers, three sort of categories, if you will. One is around enhancing Visa transactions or Visa payments.

A significant portion of the business, more than 50%, depending on how you think about it, is closely associated with the Visa transaction and our ability to sell and consistently sell with that, with an ever-expanding geo footprint and ever-expanding sort of product footprint. Two is our ability to sell across all networks, whether it's Visa or other networks. You think about some of the examples I was giving around fraud detection and network-agnostic fraud detection or A to A. The third one, of course, is the value that comes from advisory and marketing services. We have this great stable of assets around our sponsorships with NFL, with FIFA, with F1, with Olympics that enable us to curate a very specific set of marketing services as well.

We have great intelligence in our advisory business as well that's driven the 30% growth that you've seen in the advisory and other categories. Think about the growth algorithm as tied to those three buckets with the huge TAM in front of us, the innovation cadence, the strong execution. I haven't even really touched on go-to-market and execution, but we've done, I think, a terrific job of really bringing specialized sellers. Anthony talked about that at Investor Day as well. We have nearly 500 specialists in our regions now that co-locate, work with clients every day to really bring this to life. The purpose of VAS at the end of the day is to help our clients succeed. When they're successful, that's good for Visa. It's a very virtuous cycle that way. It deepens our engagements. It helps them succeed. It drives more volume.

That is why value-added services exist. I'm really, really proud of the team for what we've been able to do.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

There is so much to discuss there, Chris.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

There is a lot. Sorry, you got me all excited.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

In the interest of time, though, I'll switch gears and ask you about commercial cards. This is an area where you've had good growth in revenue, but the growth kind of pales in comparison to the enormous addressable market you have. There is often a perception that cost of acceptance for cards is often a sticking point, hindering the growth of cards and new payment flows. Tell us about your value proposition, the ROI you bring from a business's perspective, and the resources you're putting into this business now.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Yes, yes. An exciting opportunity. Again, when we talk about our business, it's our consumer payments, it's our value-added services, and then we talk about CMS. Some of you remember that as called New Flows. We've rebranded that. It's called Commercial and Money Movement Solutions, or CMS, someone referred to CMS. And commercial cards is the big, sort of the biggest portfolio within the CMS business. I think of it in two ways. Certainly, the opportunity is enormous. We've talked about a $200 trillion payment volume addressable market. A good portion of it is addressable today with the services that we have, and a good portion of it will be addressable in the future as we continue to innovate and evolve. You could think about it as both a market element and then what we're doing to sort of outgrow the market.

We are the largest player in the commercial card space. We have 40% market share, and we're growing faster than the competitors. The market conditions are what they are, and we're continuing to grow faster than the market, and we feel okay about that. Still recognizing that we have aspirations for it to grow a lot more. The commercial card business, in many senses, has elements that are similar to the consumer card business, meaning it's issuance, it's acceptance, and it's engagement. How can we drive all that in partnership with our partners? You could drive more cards and win share with issuers. You could drive more acceptance and then customized forms of acceptance that could drive experiences, whether that's virtual cards or vertical solutions.

You touched on a very important question that does come up, and it's the cost of acceptance, or at least the perceived cost of acceptance, which I think is a mental hurdle out there a little bit. We have done some of this, and I think we can do a better job of educating the ecosystem around what the true cost of acceptance is. We have done studies on this. While the cost of accepting a card for a merchant might be, a supplier might be, let's say, 3%, the benefit from accepting cards unlocks faster collections, lower default rates, and it actually unlocks more revenue as you give clients or your customers, the merchant's customers, the ability to pay in a way that they want to be paid with, in a funding source they want to use.

The ROI on accepting cards is much more positive than the 3%. We think probably 2x the cost. I think we could, as an industry, educate a lot more in addition to continuing to advance the innovation and the use cases and the engagement. It is a long play. It is a huge TAM. We are excited about it.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

Chris, we're running out of time. So my last question for you. Visa Direct, something quite differentiated for Visa. You now have reached to 11 billion endpoints. You've augmented the value proposition with a number of investments over the years. Tell us about the evolving use cases beyond person-to-person and also its cross-border meaningful portion of Visa Direct today.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

That's a great question. Great question to end on. Visa Direct has been one of our most exciting growth opportunities. I talk about innovation and the cadence of innovation. It's really something that we're leading the industry on. As you pointed out, it took a lot of work to get the infrastructure, all the different participants, as you can imagine, to get to over 11 billion endpoints, whether that's cards, wallets, accounts, to be able to move money from any point to any point. I think that's really, really exciting. P2P was sort of the use case that was predominant, and it's still sort of the bulk of the volume, I would say. We are seeing great growth in other use cases, merchant settlement, social media, and sort of gig worker. Payouts is a really interesting one.

We think the Visa Direct could become effectively the payroll engine for gig economy workers. If you think about a Lyft driver or any sort of other gig economy worker, it allows companies to literally daily move money based on the volume that they drive. There is a tremendous amount of use cases. The important thing is we've done all the work to build the infrastructure layer. There are literally hundreds and hundreds of participants, whether you're a domestic scheme or whether you're a global network, all the 11 billion endpoints that I talked about, and all the use cases, 65 of them today and continues to grow. It really is an interesting and fast growth opportunity. We also shared with the metric that we share every quarter, of course, is the transaction growth. We think that's the best metric.

We also importantly pointed out at our Investor Day that those transactions come at a pretty, excuse me, a pretty healthy yield of 9-10 cents per transaction. Even though we talk about the transactions, you could be assured that there is a good financial sort of economic rationale and reasoning behind the volume growth. Continues to see the expansion of use cases. Very excited about it.

Harshita Rawat
Senior Analyst, Bernstein

I really enjoyed our conversation, Chris. This was great. Thank you so much.

Chris Suh
CFO, Visa

Thank you so much.

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