Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQ: VRRM · Real-Time Price · USD
14.46
+0.14 (0.98%)
May 7, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2024

Mar 5, 2024

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Go ahead and get started here. Thank you very much for joining us this afternoon on the second day of Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference, obviously second day of four, so we're making good headway here. For this session, we're very pleased to have the senior leadership of Verra Mobility joining us, and we'll get a chance to talk to David Roberts, President and CEO, Craig Conti, CFO, and Jon Baldwin, Head of Government Solutions, in just a moment. As a matter of introduction, I'm James Faucette, Senior Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley covering FinTech. Before we kind of launch into questions for the Verra team, I do need to read this important disclosure. Please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley representative.

Maybe for those that aren't familiar with Verra, David, I would ask, can you give a quick overview of the business and segments, and give a high-level view of mix and percentages would probably be helpful?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Sure, happy to do so. So Verra Mobility is a global leader in smart mobility, and we operate through a portfolio of companies. Each of those companies operates in completely different segments. The first segment is what we call Commercial Services. Commercial Services, we are the leader in tolling and violation management in North America. You would most likely know us from rental car. If you've ever rented a car and seen that little box up in the windshield, that's us. Everything related to that program is part of Verra Mobility's offering and technology. We operate for that business not only here in the U.S. but also in Europe. In addition to that is Government Solutions, which is Jon's business, I'm sure he'll tell you more about that later, where we're the number one provider of automated enforcement in North America.

So those are things like speed cameras, school bus stop-arm cameras, and red light cameras. We have around 70% market share here in North America. We also operate that globally, Europe, Australia, and Canada. And then thirdly, we have our Parking Solutions, or T2, where we provide software and hardware solutions for universities and municipalities to solve their parking challenges. Sorry, going back to mix, very roughly, 45, 45, and 10 is about the rough mix.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

So let's start with Commercial Services. And within Commercial Services, I think you've talked about looking for high single-digit revenue growth in 2024. How should we think about the primary drivers in that business? And can you help rank order or talk about the contribution from dynamics like cashless tolls, new toll roads, penetration of existing customers, adding new customers? So just help us rank order the growth drivers there and what you're most sensitive to.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, James, I think the easiest rubric to think about is to let's break down that high single-digit organic growth and talk about its individual pieces. Roughly half of that growth is going to come from what we call secular tailwinds. That's more toll roads in 2024 than there were in 2023. It's the increasing penetration of cashless tolling in the United States of America, particularly. We're at about 67% when we closed 2023, so still quite a bit to go. And then the ongoing penetration of all-inclusive as a commercial offering through our stack. So that'll give you about half of that mid-single digit. About 25% of that high single digit, about 25% of it comes from TSA. So TSA, we expect in 2024 to be somewhere around 101%-102% of what it was in 2023.

Now, just for perspective, that's roughly 8%-10% higher than it was pre-pandemic. So still continuing to see strength in travel. And the remaining 25% is from our growth initiatives, growth in Europe, and growth in the FMC or the fleet segment of our business.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

OK, so let's talk about that really quickly. When I look at those three pieces, I mean, it seems like there's a little bit of overlap between TSA and or a benefit of TSA plus incremental toll roads, no? Really what I'm trying to get at is where the most likely source of variance could be.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, by far, so TSA, which is referring to TSA throughput, is by far the biggest driver, meaning if there was a downtick in overall travel, that would have an impact to us just as much as we wrote it up in the post-pandemic. So because that is real-time impact, whereas a toll road being delayed, as an example, for three months, you're not going to notice that. So what I would say is the big driver is the one that has the more immediate impact is for sure, basically, people traveling on airplanes to toll-dense areas within the United States.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it. On the fleet management side, talk about a little bit what's driving the growth there and how the solution looks maybe a little bit different than what you typically have with the rental cars, et cetera.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

So one, we made some investments in our commercial team, and they've done a really nice job in terms of execution. We sell a product to fleet management companies, provide vehicles to corporations. So think of a pharmaceutical company providing I don't know, what do they Camrys to their I don't know, what do they call it?

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

To their salespeople, yeah.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, for their salespeople. Well, those cars run tolls. Those cars get parking tickets. They get photo enforcement tickets. And all those violations can go back to the company, and we want to make sure that it goes to the driver. That's what our technology does, very similar to what we do for rental car. It's also usage-based. So some of the growth has been the advent of sales and new vehicles on the platform. And the other part is people seem to be driving more as well, which increases the usage, which, again, increases our revenue as well.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it. So that's an interesting dynamic there. So not only are you adding new customers, but existing customers within fleet, you're just seeing increased usage. I mean, and look, and then there's also the beneficial impact of if you increase the number of toll roads, it increases the probability that that's going to impact that as well, even though it may be small.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Indeed, indeed.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it. And then how do you, when you're forecasting that part of the business, what are the things that you're looking at both in terms of new customers? I think anticipating toll roads and looking at what that traffic looks like should be pretty straightforward. But what are the indicators that you look at to try to forecast both new fleets, but then especially the travel component within that segment?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Within the fleet management segment?

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Or within the general commercial, generally.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, I think where you see the highest correlation really is TSA throughput. And so let me break that down for you. To get a guide on where TSA is going, the industry that has probably the best visibility is the airline industry. They have bookings to about a year out. So we listen to the airline industry. And then it would probably go to the hotel industry, which has bookings maybe roughly six months out. And then it'll go back to our customers, the RACs, some of our customers, and then back to us. And we look at our recent experience, how we've responded to that, and what the rest of the market's saying. And I think the consensus is right now that the travel environment in 2024 is going to look a lot like the exit rate did in 2023.

So that, to go back to David's point, is by far the number one kind of metric I would look at and we think about when we forecast business.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

One other one in addition to that is the size of the fleet. So as you would imagine, the volume is predicated, and the number of fleets. All of our rental car companies seem to be sort of at what you might call full alignment to demand. They are certainly de-fleeting. Some of their electric vehicles, I think, has been relatively pronounced in the news lately. But we also want to make sure they have enough vehicles to meet the demand at the airports.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it. And then on those rental car agreements or with the RACs, as Craig called them, we often hear, at least over time, we often hear about timing of contract renewals and potential for Verra to lose one of these primary customers. Can you talk about when renewals come up, like when are those, how long are the contracts, and generally how do those terms renew as we go through?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, so obviously each customer has a different approach. Obviously, those are all publicly disclosed because they're material contracts. Enterprise just renewed this last year for three years. Previous to that, the year before, Hertz had renewed for 5. And previous to that, Avis had renewed for 5. So we have no rental car agreements up for renewal until the end of 2025 is our next renewal. So the first part is, would they take that someplace else or do it themselves is a question that we often get. And the way that I would answer that is, so first and foremost, our goal is to make sure we have an expression that we serve our customers at their highest point of need and that we're delivering real value to them.

In effect, we are the only company to have ever provided a third-party fully outsourced rental car management or toll management program for a rental car. We are the industry history. And so given the economics and the benefit that our customers receive from this, it would probably be relatively challenging to say, I'm going to bring on a new vendor that's actually never had any single experience doing it before because the risk is significant. But more than just our reputation and the relationships that we have, we have all of the integrations with the toll authorities, which matter. We are deeply integrated into the billing systems of the rental car companies so that we can bill their renter when they turn in their vehicle. And those have been customized many, many, many times over many, many years. Everything is fully outsourced. It's a call center.

It's our transponders. The box in there is ours. Everything is ours. So it just makes what I would say is we feel the most important thing is that we serve them well, but we also have some aspects of the business model that give us a lot of strength and conviction about how those contracts will continue to go.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it. As we've seen kind of more toll roads and more electronification, there's also been a bit of a change in terms of the way that rental car companies are engaging with their customers with that tolling. For example, Avis, I know that if you opt for the terminal, whether you actually go on a toll road or not, you get charged on a daily basis. But if it's electronic, tolled only, there's no choice. So you don't have a choice to pay the cash.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Well, the choice is to not drive on the toll road.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, that's right, that's right. And so I'm wondering if there have been any resistance to that or any concerns around that and how that may need to be modified, if at all?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, well, it actually has been modified. So what you look at today is actually a result of, I think, feedback from the market. There's effectively two products that the rental car companies use in generally similar forms. One is the usage day, which is you are charged a fee every day that you have the vehicle that you run a toll. So that's the or what is all-inclusive. And all-inclusive is actually a benefit to the renter because if you're going to be in, let's say you're vacationing in Florida and there's a toll road basically everywhere you go, you don't need to worry about any of it. We'll just charge you the fee. We'll pay the cost of the tolls. And it's on your bill when you turn the vehicle in.

So both of those are much more friendly than it used to be. Rental, they'd just charge you whether you use the program or not. So that has gone away. And when we've looked at our call center volume related to questions or concerns or complaints about the program, it's probably less than 0.5% of all the volume from all three over the course of a year. So I think that given the value that it's provided and people are recognizing, hey, there's toll roads everywhere. I'd like to use them. It's become more a part of the landscape.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it, got it. And then also on commercial, I was really excited to hear about the recent win in Italy with Hertz. Europe has a lot of toll roads. It's a lot of visitors, a lot of people vacationing there. And it's largely an untapped market. What's the time horizon that we should be expecting a pickup in Europe? And as that happens, how do we think about it? It seems like that could be additive to the growth rate, but I'm just wondering if that's fair and when we could see that.

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, so maybe a way to codify the way we think about it is when we did our investor day a couple of years ago, and we think about our growth rate, Europe was not a factor in how we thought about the long it wasn't a major factor of the growth rate for Commercial Services. The reason being is that everything you said about Europe is exactly why we went there. Everything you said, and our customers said, please help us. The big challenge in Europe is the slow pace of adoption of cashless tolling in the major countries. So places like Portugal have what they call free-flow tolling, like Ireland and even in Spain. But the vast majority of tolls are in France and Italy that they still use barrier-based. So you can still drive over, put your credit card in, pay for the toll.

The program has less value. So the good news to what we talked about in our earnings is that we are doing work now for Hertz in Italy in and around Milan, where they have started to put in some cashless tolls. And so if the benefit to their customers is high, then our customers will be more assertive about it. And we would anticipate over time the sort of thawing of and it'll eventually all be cashless. We cannot tell. We know that it's going to happen, but we don't trust that it's going to happen immediately.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, right. And what's that market's composition and fragmentation like from a toll road authority and rental car companies? I mean, here in the U.S., you basically have 3, 5. You know what I'm saying? And so it's not like you get some big ones, and you cover a big population group. But what's that market look like in Europe?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, so still the big three, same ones. Sixt is a significant player there, where they're much smaller here. And there are some other what I would call country-specific local providers. But really, it's those four that.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Those four dominate the overall market then collectively?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

And then the majority of the toll roads as an example, there's more toll roads in the country of France than in the United States, just to give you a concept. But most of them are barrier-based relative to toll authorities, just like here, where there's a different toll authority in Illinois than there is in New York, that there is in Maryland. It's very similar by country there. Even within the countries, there's multiple toll authorities.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

But in terms of your relationships with those toll authorities, your coverage right now is complete or close, or how would you characterize it?

David Roberts
President and CEO, Verra Mobility

We have coverage for all the major areas in the country. So if you think about Spain, Ireland, Italy, and France, we are able to provide the service there. So we have the same level of the program operates different just because of different rules within Europe. But we have the same relationships there. The value of it's not quite as high yet because of the barrier-based tolling.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right. And then let's talk about move to Government Solutions, Jon. This is where you're going to you've been over there with your own opinions, but sitting quietly so far. But now you get to speak to where you're actually in charge of. Maybe you can talk about the different product offerings in that government segment. And I know that there's speed safety, red light safety, school bus. Talk about the differences and in particular where you're seeing the highest and lowest growth among the different business lines.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

OK, so just for a quick overview, so regardless of which type of enforcement type it is, we will capture the license plate, capture what we call an evidence package. If you're speeding, you're speeding. If you violate a red light, we take a video of that. We capture your license plate. We do a DMV lookup. We package that all, send it to the police department. So that's kind of the commonality of our service regardless of enforcement type. When you think about the enforcement types, speed, everyone has at some point encountered a radar gun. It tracks your speed. If you're breaking the speed limit by a certain amount, you'll get a citation. That can deploy in school zones. It can deploy in work zones. Or it can just be generically speed anywhere, depending on what the legislative authorization is.

So what we're seeing is one of the rapidly growing areas of our market in 2023 was school zone speed, most notably in Florida and California. So that's kind of the big growth market for us right now. On top of that, school bus stop-arm cameras are rapidly growing as well, with the biggest authorization that was new in Florida. So Florida's got some big expansions with those two enforcement types. California's got a pilot running for 200 cameras for school zone speed. But our expectation is those could grow significantly to make a big potential market for us in the future.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Let's talk about what was government growth in 2023, kind of what are you expecting in 2024? Then we'll kind of try to dissect the drivers of growth there.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Let me do it. Yeah, sure. We expect government to be a mid-single digit grower, the high end of mid-single digits. I want to bifurcate that because 2023 still had some hangover on products. I'm going to live in 2024 for a second, James. We expect the service to grow at the very, very low end of high single digits. We expect product to be flat. So when you add that together, you get to mid-single digits. I think what's really important there is what John was just talking about, the increase in we'll say increase in TAM for simplicity and the growth that we're seeing in some of the purpose-built photo enforcement around school zones, that number could go up.

I think what we need to see is as what John just identified as legislative wins, if you will, in 2023 are going to turn into RFPs here in 2024, which we'll compete for. We'll have a really good idea coming out of 2024 what that growth could look like. As we said at investor day two years ago, mid-single digit grower. I think this has upward pressure to that. We'll see if we can take that growth rate up a little higher by the time we come out of 2024.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

So when you look at Florida and their school zone and school bus arm programs, how much kind of what do we know right now in terms of what has been approved, what still needs to be legislated, proposed budgets, et cetera there?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's less limited by the budget because that's handled more at the municipality. Legislation's all at the state level. At the state level.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

To be clear, the state can facilitate or allow for.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

The state allows for it or disallows it.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, exactly.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

But then to deploy it, it happens at the municipal level. So for a school bus stop-arm, that's typically selling directly to the school district. For school zone speed or red light camera, you might sell to the sheriff's department or to a DOT in a bigger city.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it. And on those, how does that revenue model work? Craig mentioned that there's a hardware component typically for that and then a service component. And just can you break it down? And what's your expectation for what that's going to look like in Florida as we get approvals?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Nationwide, what we typically do is we'll bundle everything together into one monthly service fee.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Including essentially a rental on the equipment.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

The hardware as a service and kind of technology-enabled software. Then we've got maintenance services all lumped into one safety as a service package. So our clients don't have to know anything about automated enforcement. They just call us. We do everything for them. So we'll plan the site. We'll put the cameras in the ground. We'll set up the back office. We'll get the whole program up and running. We'll start issuing citations. And we'll start collecting money. So the city doesn't have to know anything about this.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, right. Historically, there's been some variance, though. Wasn't that the case in New York, for example, that they wanted to pay more for the hardware? Then we didn't have that.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Yeah, yeah. Go ahead, Craig. Yeah. You jump in, Jon. This is your business for sure. When we think about that, New York City was a little bit unique in that they bought their own cameras. That is not the case just about anywhere else in the United States of America. So it's one bundled offering. Now, when you get outside the United States of America, there still exists a different model, much smaller, but where it's a product sale and then a service on that product sale after. So when I say products will be flat 2023 to 2024, the vast majority of those products are international. But when we go back to domestic for a second, the growth that Jon's talking about in all of the spaces he's talked about so far are all service.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right. Just remind us, government exposure, U.S. versus international generally today or most recently?

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Yeah, I'd say 25.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's about 25% international.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

25% international.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Obviously, there's a little bit of distortion because of those hardware sales. But is that hardware and services predominated then? So that looks similar then.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

It is. So the way to think about it in terms of I think I said it wrong, James. The 25% that's international has both hardware and service. But when you're looking at the business in 2023 and 2024, where we talk about product or hardware sales, that's almost exclusively international from this point going forward.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it, got it, got it, got it. And then so back to Florida because this is obviously big state, big population, which hasn't had really a lot of enforcement of this type previously. Right now, they're really kind of focused on school zones. Or is the piloting and the contemplated legislation cover more generalized speed enforcement?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's specifically school zone speed.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

That can be at the county level, or it can be at the school district level. We're seeing contracts go out for both. Typically, the stop-arm camera programs go at the district level where they have a pool of buses.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right. And what's that you said compete for contracts? What's the competitive landscape for school zone enforcement generally?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

We've got three or four key competitors that we see in that market space. We think we're well positioned to win our fair share. But it is a competitive market. And it's competitively procured.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

What's your sense of for school zone enforcement specifically, including camera arms or bus arms? What's your estimated share in the market generally, just so we can kind of size where you're at today?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Well, it's not really a fair question because New York City is school zone speed. So you would say on a camera-by-camera basis, we're at like 80% or 90% market share because of so many cameras that we have deployed. School zone speed nationwide outside New York City is still a relatively nascent market.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, so it's not very big.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's not very big yet.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

This is kind of like a New York market starting to expand elsewhere. You guys have kind of dominated New York then.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah. If you think about the story to the communities, why is it getting allowed? It's because anything tied to protecting children tends to have much more legislative buy-in, which is why you see school bus stop-arm getting such massive acceptance in the market.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, right. Let's turn to California. You said that's in pilot right now. Can you characterize what that program looks like? Is it also school zone specific, or?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's also school zone specific. But there, it's more very specific in terms of number of cameras per city. So if you think about Florida, Florida, it's optional to the cities how many they want to deploy, even if their legislator would be allowed. In L.A., for example, I think the number is 236 cameras. So they're going to deploy 236 exactly.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

San Francisco's got a smaller amount. It stacks up to a level of.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

That's the pilot.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

That's just the pilot.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Exactly. What's your sense of what should happen or what could happen in terms of evolution of those programs if they become because I imagine that people in Davis, California also like to protect their children, right?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

That's actually what we hear because we do operate red light programs in California. So those current customers that are not part of the pilot are asking us, how do we get our names onto that pilot? Or how do we get our names to the next generation? So there's a lot of groundswell of support for automated enforcement across the state.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

But moving beyond pilot, is it your sense that it will be similar where it'll be legislatively permitted? And then each either municipality or school district, et cetera, will actually be the customer? Or do you think it'll be more broad-based than that and with funding coming from the state level? What's your view right now?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It's going to be all at the city and municipal level. It's just how these programs are deployed.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Just once you have a municipality or New York City and you run the service, what's the revenue like-for-like revenue growth potential on a particular camera? What does that curve look like?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

It depends on the fee structure that we have for the camera. The majority of our services we have for fixed speed are what we call fixed fee. So it's just a flat fee per month. So there, the revenue profile is flat for the duration of the contract. Where we see the growth is additional services that we can provide on top of the existing camera or expansions that we do with those customers because the programs are very effective. And customers tend to expand.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, so customer expansion kind of makes sense. But what are additional services that you would be talking about?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

So I'll give you one obvious one that's happening in Colorado right now. Colorado authorized speed expansion. We already have red light at 10 intersections. We just turned on the speed for an additional ancillary fee. And that turned on overnight. So that's kind of the simplest, cheapest way for our customers to achieve the benefits of safety without having to go through any mental gymnastics about figuring out a new contract.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

What's your most recent statistics that you're able to show in terms of for those expansions into speed in terms of reduction of accidents or injuries or other costs that you're helping try to reduce?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

I would hate to speculate without the numbers in front of me. Can I follow up with you?

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, yeah, no. I'm just trying to internalize what the sales pitch is to the city.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Well, we know for sure at New York City, there was a 30% reduction of speeding and accidents in locations where speed cameras were put up.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right, right, right. But one of the interesting things I've heard historically is that you get that benefit. And a lot of that accrues pretty quickly. But then once people become familiar with that there's a speed camera there, then you actually see a normalization or plateauing.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

That's the point, though, of the technology, right? And what's interesting is one of Jon's engineers showed a chart that kind of said, here's the speed camera. Somewhere in Europe, here's a speed camera in the United States. And here's another used camera. And the curve was very similar between all three, right? And that's the point is what you see is you see a lot of violations up front. And they tail off. And they hit a very flat curve on the way back. And that's a sustainable benefit of the technology.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

No, absolutely. So go ahead.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

I was just going to add one of the other technologies that we do have in our portfolio, which is mobile speed, negates that fact because now you have no idea where it's going to be.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

OK, so how does that work?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

So in the U.S., it shows up in work zones primarily where you'd have a van at a work zone. So I think we've all driven through a work zone sign on a highway. And it says, slow down to 50. And everyone speeds up. Now you would actually get a ticket. Internationally, New South Wales, which is the state that Sydney is in, has an anytime, any place policy of mobile speed vans. So 24/7, 365, a mobile speed van might be on your road. You do not know.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

And to take that, too, clearly, like, Florida and California are big cam expanders right now. Are there any states where legislation specifically prohibits speed cameras and auto enforcement?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

I mean, we've had them where they no longer have enforcement. So Texas is probably the biggest example of that. But that was.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

2018, 3 or.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, four years ago.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

OK, got it, got it, got it, got it. Let's turn to parking here. I think it's kind of a unique solution. Who are your biggest customers in this space right now? You touched on university and municipality parking. What kinds of customers are opting for the various solutions?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

A great example would be Texas A&M. It's one of our largest customers. Large universities have surprisingly complex parking challenges. I have two children in college. And I know what the fines are like.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

But you have.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Parking isn't that easy.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

You have new students coming in that need a parking permit. You have guests and visitors coming in to see their children. You have faculty. You have other visitors. And then you have sporting events. All those require the usage of the same sort of landscape, if you will. And our software helps them. It's an ERP system for the parking management group within these larger universities to manage the permitting and the access and the payment related to those spots.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it. And you mentioned, once again, coming into 2024, that you thought the growth of this segment is likely to slow modestly but then pick back up in 2025. And can you talk through why that's the case and really how we should think about the long-term growth for the parking segment?

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Sure. So what you've got here is the value driver for this business is the services and SaaS portion of the business, which is about 75% of the revenue in the segment. The remaining 25% is buy resale equipment. So the trend that we're seeing and kind of fits and starts is some sections of the market are moving towards a no-equipment policy, which is great for us because we have the product on the other side. But equipment revenues today, SaaS revenues over term. So as you continue to see those two things oscillate a little bit, we'll have a year or two, which will be in the mid-single digit growth, which we expect here in 2024. But we still think of this as a high single digit organic grower.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it, got it. And as we come into start to look forward into 2025 and beyond, I want to go back to the government. What's your visibility for growth rates there? And how do you model that out? I mean, I think that the algorithm for commercial is pretty clear. But for government, what's that look like?

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Yeah, I think I'll answer that at the portfolio level.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Sure, yeah.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

I'm going to go back and say that as a company, we're in the same place we were in Investor Day two years ago. I'm happy to report that. I still think that a sustainable 6%-8% organic growth, we can grow margin every year. We grow margin in this company through volume leverage. All three of our businesses scale incredibly well. And our rubric to return 40%-50% free cash flow conversion is still intact. That's the way we think about it hasn't changed.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Let's talk about free cash flow and capital allocation generally. Just how are you thinking about allocating capital between capital return but also debt paydown and perhaps improving or shifting EV to equity that way and then also M&A? You haven't done a lot of M&A transactions. But the ones that you've done have been really good at consolidating the market and position of Verra.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Yeah, and I'll let David wrap on this comment with what we're seeing in M&A. But the way I think about it is I can't tell you what the environment's going to look like in six months. I'm going to tell you exactly how Verra Mobility is going to deploy their capital. We haven't changed that. I think every quarter, we put out an investor summary, which I encourage you to read, which goes back and says, here's how we've allocated capital in the trailing 20 quarters. You'll see it's a good mix of M&A, debt repurchase, and share buyback. The reason is we look at the next dollar out the door as what's going to be the best return for the shareholder. Really simply, that's what's the return on the after-tax cost of debt paying down that debt.

We keep a very live view of the intrinsic value of the company, what's intrinsic value of the company versus the screen in terms of share buybacks. Then when we look at M&A, we are a DCF buyer. And we take out only synergies when we're doing our DCF. And we discount the potential acquisition either at the WACC of the company or the match-funded debt cost to do that deal, whichever one's higher. And then you get a real common-sized way to look at what's the best return on that next dollar out the door.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it, got it. And then in terms of M&A acquisition targets, David, what are you seeing? Or what could be attractive? How are you feeling? And no conversation around this would be complete without talking about what you're seeing in terms of valuations, et cetera.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, well, I will say the nice thing is the activity level is back up again. I think toward the end of last year, the whole market saw a bit of a reset relative to just people wanting to bring assets to market. So one, we are always looking to strengthen our position in the markets we have. We have great positions in our markets. So we turn then to adjacency expansions or potentially platform plays, still leveraging the financial discipline that Craig just went through. At Investor Day, we talked about urban mobility as a sort of overall theme that we operate in, whether that's in enforcement or parking. We also look at connected vehicle, which we operate today in the tolling and violation space. But there's other things like telematics and connected vehicle that we've been looking at.

I would say the pipeline today is certainly as robust as it's been probably in the last five years. Valuations are probably TBD. There wasn't like a real reset on valuations, in my opinion, related to the 2019. You sort of anticipated a dropback. And I still think they're relatively sporty given the cost of debt having come up. But I think that's starting to thaw a little bit with, essentially, private equity needing to get some of these assets and monetize for their equity. So I think that's a good trend for us.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it. One more operational question I wanted to ask is back on these cameras and enforcement that you're bundling or even on the commercial side, what's the hardware lifecycle on those? And is there a point where we should be aware if there was a big surge? New York's a weird example because they bought their own cameras. But let's imagine a situation where you had a Florida, let's say, over the next few years, they put a lot of cameras in place. Is there a point at which you need to go back and incur some cost to replace those?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

I'll answer that one just because I've been with the company 10 years. We had cameras that predated my arrival that are still operating in the state of Florida. These things are built very, very well. They can last a long time because they're componentized, meaning we can change out little pieces. We don't have to necessarily put a new camera. But we can also reevaluate that at the time of renewal if that's something that the customer wants to upgrade the technology or not. But generally speaking, they operate for their useful life is quite long.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

That's from a cash flow perspective. Then what about the conversely? Over what time period are you amortizing those?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Over the contract value, the initial contract value, which is anywhere from five-seven years.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

If you run five-seven years, and then let's imagine the scenario that you just renew at the same rate, then that renewal then should be at a better margin because you don't have the amortization of the hardware associated with it, right?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

That's correct. That's correct.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

That's correct.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Got it, got it, got it. Good. I think lastly, to kind of wrap up, is that I think Verra has long you guys, like I said, consolidated position and have a dominant share in a couple of different markets. What are the aspirations, David, you have for the company? And kind of what keeps you occupied or maybe awake at night in terms of what you worry about?

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Those two kids in college take a fair amount of my brain share, to be honest with you. Look, we set out on a journey a couple of years ago to say, you know what? We have this portfolio of assets. We want to be one of the best-run companies ever. So we have taken lessons from great companies like Danaher and Fortive. We've hired people with that background. They sit on our board now. So what I would anticipate is leveraging what we call the Verra Mobility Operating System, which is the way that we run our businesses, that we will continue to create excess cash flow that we can redeploy on behalf of investors. That you'll see in five-10 years a much larger, more diversified portfolio of assets in the company.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Love it. David, Craig, Jon, thank you very much for joining us.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, thanks for having us. Thank you, everyone.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Thank you.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Appreciate it.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Thanks, James.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Yeah, thank you.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Craig Conti
CFO, Verra Mobility

Thank you.

James Faucette
Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

Appreciate it. Yeah.

Jon Baldwin
Head of Government Solutions, Verra Mobility

Thanks, again.

Powered by