Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Verra Mobility's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your conference operator today. This call is being recorded. I would like to turn the presentation over now to your host for today's call, Mark Zindler, Vice President of Investor Relations for Verra Mobility. Please go ahead, Mr. Zindler.
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Verra Mobility's first quarter 2026 earnings call. Today, we'll be discussing the results announced in our press release issued after the market close, along with our earnings presentation, which is available on the investor relations section of our website at ir.verramobility.com. With me on the call are David Roberts, Verra Mobility's Chief Executive Officer, and Craig Conti, our Chief Financial Officer. David will begin with prepared remarks, followed by Craig, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A. Management may make forward-looking statements during the call regarding future events and expectations, anticipated future trends, and the anticipated future performance of the company. We caution you that such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.
Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of risk factors. These factors are described in our SEC filings. Please refer to our earnings press release and investor presentation for our cautionary note on forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Finally, during today's call, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release, quarterly earnings presentation, and investor presentation, all of which can be found on our website at ir.verramobility.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'll begin with a brief overview of our performance for the first quarter, followed by a commentary on our business segments, operational progress, and outlook for the remainder of the year. Overall, we are pleased with our performance in the first quarter, which represents a solid start to 2026. We delivered top-line results in line with our internal expectations with upside and profitability while building on our momentum in several of our key growth areas. At Verra Mobility, we remain steadfast in our mission, delivering technology solutions to make transportation safer, smarter, and more connected. This mission guides our strategy and execution across the organization. Before I share the details of those results, let me take a moment to reiterate our strategy, which is centered on the theme of safe, smart, and connected.
This is actually the framework outlining our competitive advantage and where we see growth opportunities for the company. Safe should be obvious, as it's been the cornerstone since our company was founded. Last year, we saw positive road safety momentum, but there's still a long way to go to dramatically decreasing traffic fatalities and crashes. Smart is all about bringing operational intelligence to transportation systems to make them more efficient and reliable for our customers. Connected, which I'll expand on later when discussing Commercial Services, is about unifying fragmented transportation systems and disconnected networks. We are confident that we are well-positioned to help customers solve safe, smart, connected challenges and improve the overall mobility experience for everyone.
Turning to our financial results, total revenue of $224 million for the quarter was aligned with our internal expectations, reflecting steady demand across our core business segments. Adjusted EBITDA and margins came in ahead of our internal expectations, driven primarily by better-than-expected New York City camera installations despite weather delays in January and February, as well as reduced bad debt expense for the quarter. This performance underscores our continued focus on disciplined execution and operational efficiency. Let me now turn to our segment performance, starting with Government Solutions, which was the standout contributor in the quarter. We saw strong momentum in bookings with up to $13 million in new awards during Q1. Key wins came in across the portfolio, including enforcement programs at red light, speed, work zone, mobile bus lane, and school bus product offerings.
Over the trailing 12 months, new bookings totaled approximately $71 million, reflecting sustained demand and strong conversion across our pipeline. We continue to see healthy activity levels driven by increasing adoption of automated traffic enforcement solutions by municipalities. These programs are attractive due to their ability to change driver behavior and improve road safety. Moreover, these programs are long-term recurring contracts that provide strong visibility into future revenue streams and support durable growth over time. In fact, we are energized by the latest reporting from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which indicates that traffic fatalities decreased significantly in 2025 by more than 6%. This is a great indication that safety measures are working, and in the vein of safe, smart, and connected, we believe continued deployment of automated enforcement will make significant impact on safety and ultimately saving lives.
From an operational standpoint, we continue to make progress against our key strategic priorities. We are expanding our customer base within the government sector while maintaining a strong focus on execution and delivery. At the same time, we are investing in technology and innovation to enhance our platform capabilities. This includes the implementation of Mosaic, our secure, cloud-based back-end automated enforcement platform solution in Government Solutions. We have successfully migrated several customers onto the platform and are actively working to complete other migrations. We continue to expect that the Mosaic platform will deliver productivity improvements and enable long-term margin expansion by streamlining the end-to-end process of traffic incident events. Moving on to Commercial Services, revenue declined 4% compared to the first quarter of 2025, due primarily to prior period churn in our fleet management business.
Looking out the remainder of the year, while the price of fuel and events in the Middle East could weigh on travel, household budgets, and consumer sentiment, we are cautiously optimistic about travel trends. Consumers and business traveler demand for domestic travel continues to be resilient so far, and we remain hopeful that airfare pricing remains affordable and travel volumes remain consistent with the performance year-to-date. As a reminder, a significant customer relationship which represents over 10% of our revenue, is currently operating under a short-term contract extension. This contract extension enables us to continue to serve the customer without interruption while we continue to negotiate a long-term renewal. These discussions are ongoing and constructive. As I mentioned earlier, we continue to believe the future of transportation will be defined by solutions that are safe, smart, and connected.
I've already touched on the safe dimension through Government Solutions. Let me expand on what we mean by connected. Today, mobility in the U.S. remains highly fragmented, with many systems operating in isolation. We see a meaningful opportunity to help bridge those gaps by connecting platforms, processes, and payment methods. We believe we are well-positioned to support our customers and partners, including cities and fleets, tolling authorities, in delivering more seamless integrated experiences for the people they serve. One example of delivering a more connected and seamless mobility experience is the AutoConnect virtual agent, a solution we announced in April. It is a digital solution for rental car companies to allow drivers to finish the checkout process and activate add-on services like tolling and fueling directly from the vehicle, streamlining the experience for renters.
This technology can help our rental car customers notify drivers of available services as counter bypass becomes more popular and improves their customer experience and enables new revenue streams through the service selection. This is just one example where we believe we can deliver on connected solutions. Lastly, top-line revenue for Parking Solutions was in line with our internal expectations and with a slight beat on segment profit margins on revenue mix and operating activities. Looking at the broader market environment, we continue to see favorable tailwinds supporting our business. There's an increasing global focus on road safety alongside growing demand from government customers and automated enforcement solutions. At the same time, domestic travel demand remains resilient, supporting continued growth in our Commercial Services segment.
Even against this backdrop of tailwinds, we operate with a pervasive continuous improvement mindset, and we launched a company-wide transformation initiative to better position the business for long-term growth. This effort is focused on controlling what we can control, optimizing our cost structure, improving operational efficiency, and aligning resources to unlock new growth opportunities while creating capacity to invest in the future.
As a part of this transformation, we made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce by approximately 5% in the first quarter, which we expect will generate approximately $10 million in annualized cost savings. Importantly, these savings are being actively redeployed into the business to drive top-line growth and reinforce our technology leadership. We are investing in strategic areas where we have clear competitive advantages, including large-scale fleet management and deep interoperability with cities, courts, and law enforcement.
Our priority investment areas include AI-driven capabilities across both hardware and software, autonomous vehicle ecosystems, rideshare solutions, and emerging technologies such as drone applications. A key pillar of this reinvestment is the expanded use of AI across our business, directly supporting our smart mobility strategy. In the near term, we are focused on using AI to improve internal workflows and automate processes to drive efficiency and scalability. In parallel, we are embedding AI capabilities into our products through targeted R&D investments to enhance customer value and differentiate our offerings. While these initiatives are still in the early stages, initial pilot programs have delivered encouraging results. Over time, we expect this disciplined reallocation of resources to enhance our growth pro-profile and improve operating leverage. We will continue to provide updates as we make progress.
Turning to our outlook, we are entering the remainder of 2026 with solid momentum and confidence in our strategy. We believe our strong bookings performance provides a solid foundation for future revenue growth in Government Solutions. Our pipeline remains robust. As we look ahead, our priorities for the year remain clear: converting Government Solutions bookings into revenue, executing against our Mosaic platform implementation plan, which we expect to lead to margin expansion in 2027 and beyond. Maintaining discipline around capital allocation. In closing, we delivered a solid first quarter with revenue in line with expectations and upside in profitability. We saw strong booking momentum in Government Solutions, reinforcing the long-term value of that segment. We are well positioned for continued growth as we move through 2026.
Craig, I'll turn it over to you to guide us through our financial results and our outlook for the remainder of the year.
Thank you, David, and hello everyone. Appreciate you joining us on the call today. Let's turn to slide four, which outlines the key financial measures for the consolidated business for the first quarter. Our Q1 performance was generally in line to slightly ahead of internal expectations, with total revenue directly in line with internal expectations and adjusted EBITDA dollars and margins slightly ahead due to revenue mix and timing considerations. Starting with service revenue, Government Solutions increased 4% in the quarter, driven by 12% growth outside of New York City. Within New York City, incremental new camera installation growth was more than offset by the updated contract pricing change. Commercial Services revenue declined about 4% year-over-year due to the impact of prior period churn and a small non-recurring accounting true-up. Parking Solutions service revenue increased 6% on SaaS and subscription revenue performance.
Total product revenue was $10 million for the quarter. Government Solutions contributed roughly $7 million, and T2 delivered about $3 million in product sales overall for the quarter. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $86 million, modestly stronger than our internal expectations as New York City camera installations were better than expected once the weather improved in March. We reported net income of $27 million for the quarter, including a tax provision of about $14 million, representing an effective tax rate of 34%. The effective tax rate is temporarily higher this quarter due to the year-over-year impact of stock-based compensation and reserve timing. We expect the full year effective tax rate to be 28%-29% based on the second half 2026 planned activities, which is unchanged from our guidance.
The absolute EPS was $0.17 per share for the first quarter of 2026, compared to $0.20 per share for the prior year period. Adjusted EPS, which excludes amortization, stock-based compensation, and other non-recurring items, was $0.25 per share for the first quarter of this year, compared to $0.30 per share in the first quarter of 2025. The adjusted EPS decline was driven by the reduction in adjusted EBITDA, along with increased depreciation expense, partially offset by the effect of our share repurchases in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Moving on to cash flows. Cash flows provided by operating activities totaled $41 million, and we delivered about $10 million of free cash flow for the quarter, which was below our internal expectations of about $20 million.
The $10 million shortfall is comprised of $7 million of temporarily increased inventory balances in GS due to the weather delays in New York City. CS unbilled receivables increased about $5 million, driven by non-recurring timing items related to the settlement of tolls incurred and associated invoicing to end users. Lastly, partially offsetting these amounts, we benefited from about $2 million of bad debt improvement in the CS business year-over-year. These New York City and Commercial Services items are solely timing related, thus we are reaffirming our free cash flow outlook for the full year, which I'll cover in a bit more detail in a few minutes. I'll walk through the first quarter performance in each of our three business segments, beginning with Commercial Services on slide five. CS year-over-year revenue declined 4% in the first quarter.
RAC tolling revenue increased 1% over the same period last year, driven by increased product adoption and tolling activity, which benefited from 1.5% increase in U.S. travel volume over the prior year quarter. The core RAC tolling growth was offset by about $2 million related to the non-recurring true-up that I discussed earlier. Our FMC business declined 19% or about $3.6 million year-over-year, primarily driven by the prior period customer churn we have discussed historically. Adjusting for both the prior period FMC churn and the non-recurring true-up, revenue growth would have been mid-single digits for the quarter. Commercial Services segment profit margins increased 100 basis points over the prior year. The revenue decline was more than offset by volume leverage and lower bad debt expense on improved cash collections.
Turning to slide 6, Government Solutions service revenue increased 4% in the quarter, driven by a 12% growth outside of New York City. Within New York City, incremental new camera installation growth was more than offset by the updated contract pricing change, which went into effect on January 1st of this year. Total revenue grew 3% over the prior year quarter as product revenue was down about $1 million year-over-year, due primarily to a reduction in product revenue in our international business. Government Solutions segment profit was $21 million for the quarter, representing margins of approximately 20%. The decline in segment profit dollars and margins is primarily attributable to the New York City pricing change.
While this represents a reduction in segment profit dollars and margins over the prior year, this performance was better than expected due to both the revenue growth outside of New York and New York City camera installations expanding faster than we contemplated as we established the pacing on our full year 2026 guidance. Let's turn to slide seven for a view of the results of Parking Solutions. We generated revenue of $20 million and segment profit of approximately $3 million for the quarter. SaaS and services sales increased about 6% compared to the prior year, while product revenue declined about $600,000 compared to 2025. Parking Solutions segment profit margins expanded 210 basis points driven by revenue mix and other one-time items. Okay, let's turn to slide 8 and discuss the balance sheet and take a closer look at leverage.
We ended the quarter with a net debt balance of approximately $1 million, which was elevated sequentially due primarily to first quarter share repurchases. Net leverage landed at 2.5 times, which also reflects partial usage of our credit revolver to help fund the share repurchases. Let me give you some detail on our share repurchase activity. In the first quarter, we purchased approximately 2.2 million shares for about $50 million through open market transactions. This brings the cumulative share repurchases up to $184 million under the $250 million authorization, which is the largest program in the company's history. We slowed our share repurchases in the first quarter out of conservatism. Q1 is routinely our lowest cash generation quarter due to the seasonality of our core business.
This was compounded by one-off transitory items such as the weather-related increase in City of New York project inventory. Share buybacks remain an important element of our capital allocation strategy. We are pleased to have significant additional capacity of $66 million under our current authorization to repurchase shares through the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, based on our view that free cash flow will grow over the remainder of the year and in line with our guidance levels, we will continue to actively consider opportunities to repurchase shares and otherwise allocate capital to drive shareholder returns. Okay, let's now turn to slide 9. Have a look at full year 2026 guidance. Based on our first quarter results and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming all guidance measures.
As a reminder, the full year 2026 guidance ranges provided at our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call were as follows: We expect total revenue in the range $1.02 billion-$1.03 billion, representing approximately 5% growth at the midpoint of guidance over 2025. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $405 million-$415 million, or an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%, representing a 250 basis point decline compared to 2025. As we previously discussed, the combination of portfolio mix and the City of New York renewal contract, partially offset by a year-over-year reduction in ERP implementation costs, are expected to drive the temporary reduction in margins.
We expect 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.32 to $1.38 per share, representing low single-digit growth over 2025. Lastly, free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $150 million-$160 million for 2026, representing a conversion rate in the high 30th percentile of adjusted EBITDA. We expect to spend approximately $125 million of CapEx in 2026, roughly flat with 2025. The vast majority will be spent in Government Solutions to implement newly awarded photo enforcement programs. Moving on to the segment level, Government Solutions is expected to generate the high end of mid-single-digit total revenue growth, which reflects the blended growth rates across the segment, including low double-digit revenue growth outside of New York City.
This also comes from flat product revenue compared to the prior year, as New York City product sales will be offset by a decline in international product revenue. The outlook for GS margins is unchanged. We expect segment profit margins to contract by approximately 450 to 500 basis points compared to 2025, primarily due to the New York City renewal contract, including service pricing adjustments from the competitive procurement process and the inclusion of minority and women-owned subcontract requirements by the City of New York. A quicker than expected recovery in March enabled us to accelerate installations and ultimately overdrive Q1 margins, which led to the outperformance of the first quarter.
We expect 2nd and 3rd quarter margins to be around the same levels as Q1, and then a ramp up to the mid-20s by Q4 2026, fueled by volume leverage, Mosaic cost savings, and school bus stop arm seasonality. We still expect GS margins to land in the low 20s overall for total year 2026, consistent with what we shared on our last call. Commercial Services revenue growth is expected to accelerate as the spring/summer travel season ramps up, and we sunset the FMC churn after the 2nd quarter of this year to get to mid-single-digit revenue growth overall for the full year. CS segment profit margins are expected to expand over the prior year, driven by volume leverage, prior year ERP spending, and improved bad debt expense.
These expectations are also predicated on a successful outcome of our ongoing negotiations with a significant customer for a pending contract renewal, as David discussed earlier. We continue to anticipate that Parking Solutions revenue will be up mid-single digits versus 2025 levels, driven by growth in SaaS and subscription and professional services. Lastly, we expect Parking Solutions margins to be slightly accretive to 2025. Other key assumptions supporting our adjusted EPS and free cash flow outlook can be found on slide 10. This concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and attention today. At this time, I'd like to invite Liz to open the line for any questions. Over to you, Liz.
If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities.
David and Craig, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions.
Dan.
Start with Government Solutions. I think you said $13 million new bookings in Q1, did I hear that right, outside of New York City? Just how would you describe the overall level of RFQs and opportunity in the pipeline today versus a year ago?
I would say it's, I mean, probably right on par with it, Daniel Moore. Just we've seen a lot of great activity, you know, continued expansion and opportunities in places like California we talked about a long time ago. School bus continues to have a lot of RFPs coming out. We would say that the activity and the go forward of that business looks really good. It looks fantastic right now.
Very helpful. Then shifting gears, you mentioned obviously no change to the full year outlook for Commercial Services. You know, you did say that it was based on a successful outcome of the renegotiation. Is there a sort of a timing that you have in mind, you know, as it relates to kind of low and high end of the guidance range there?
I would say, you know, obviously we're very careful when we talk about those things. We're continuing to work under a contract, so we wouldn't put a place of timing on that right now, Dan.
Understood. Maybe one more, and I'll jump back in queue. Just the integration to Mosaic, how's that progressing relative to expectations? Is $10 million-$15 million cost savings in 2027 still a good target?
Yes, it is. It's going well. It's a big project. We've been doing it for quite some time, and we've got some customers stood up on the program, or excuse me, on the platform, and we've got a line of others that are waiting to get on. We're excited about the potential of the product.
Yeah. Dan, I'll just jump in on that. That number that we've talked about is something that we talk about here a lot, so there's a lot of visibility to it. Yes, the short answer is we look at the pacing of Mosaic, we expect it to be breakeven this year from an investment. This is at the even line, Dan. From an investment savings standpoint, we do expect in that 10-15ish range, 15 being the way upper end of that, but 10-15 in 2027, an additional 10 compounded out beyond that. Looking good. We do have customers live on the platform as we speak today.
Okay. Very helpful. I'll jump back when any follow-ups. Thanks.
Thank you, Dan.
Our next question comes from Tomohiko Sano with JP Morgan.
Hello, everyone.
Hey, Tomo. Hey.
Hey. Thank you. Thank you. My questions, could you talk about the CS business, the revenue impact from FMC customer churn, has bottoming Q1? If you could talk about the main drivers for the revenue recovery, and the key factors behind the margin improvement, and then sustainabilities, into throughout the year, please.
Yeah. Okay. Let me, let me, this is Craig. I'll take a shot at that. If, if we think about the CS business, it's down 3.5%. That, that's the actual total, year-over-year in the first quarter. There, there's four pieces to that bridge. The first piece is the FMC churn, which we've been talking about for 1 year now. It will impact us in the second quarter as well, but this is the most material impact that we have. That was just under $5 million. If I, if I forget about the churn and look at the FMC business, it actually grew, right? We grew over $1 million outside of the churn in the quarter.
Travel was, you know, somewhere between a million and a half dollars and $2 million positive. We had the accounting true-up. Let me explain just quickly what this was. The one of the largest tolling authorities in the country changed their back office in the back quarter of 2025. As we went and reconciled out all the activity from the fourth quarter, we did find something that we needed to change. That was about $2 million. If you look at that in terms of V dollars that I just gave you, that would get you down 3.5% year-over-year.
Let me get to the second part, though, is how are you comfortable, or how do you think about mid-single digit for growth for the rest of the year? If I take out that FMC churn, which I said will not be as impactful in the second quarter, and then anniversaries after the second quarter, it's not even in the back half of the year, and I take out that one time true-up that relates back to the fourth quarter, I already had mid-single digit growth within the quarter. That's how I think about how that looks for the rest of the year, Tomo. I would lay on top of that where travel is, maybe more than you wanted, but I'll just give you the full answer.
It's, you know, we closed the quarter with 101% or 1.5% growth travel year-over-year. As we sit here as of last night, I think we're about at 101%, which is exactly what we told you we modeled for the rest of the year. If I listen to the airlines, they sound cautiously optimistic, I think was how I would characterize it in terms of domestic demand. You kind of mix all that up and say, if I take the one-timers out of the first quarter, I am already seeing that mid-single digit growth. If I go forward, it feels like travel is hanging in there, so I feel comfortable with that mid-single digit growth as we look out to the balance of the year.
That's very helpful. Thank you. One more on the GS business. Could you provide an update on the regulatory developments and new project opportunities in California and how you see the growth potential in that state going forward, please?
Yeah. So far, we've continued to do very well in California. All of the legislation that we helped support pass has been a tailwind to us as we've, you know, we've I wanna say run the table. We've won more than our fair share relative to what's been happening in California, and we feel like there's gonna be even more opportunities for expansion as we look for other use cases to be applied later. You know, in all regards, I think California is exactly what we hoped it to be when we started talking about the legislation three and a half years ago. We're really excited about California.
Thank you very much.
Yeah. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.
Yes. Hi. Thank you so much. I wanted to follow up on the Government Solutions business. It sounds like you had some timing benefits on the product sales side. I'm just curious if you could kinda level set with us on how we should think about revenue realization, both product and service revenue within Government Solutions as we go through the rest of the year.
Yeah, Faiza, no, no problem. As I think about GS, we talk about this with New York and without New York, let's forget that for a second. Let's talk about just total GS. Like I said in the prepared remarks, I expect this to be the high end of mid-single-digit growth overall for total GS. Okay. If we wanna split that into just I'm not gonna do the New York City split, I'll do that in a minute. Just between product and service, I expect GS overall service to be a high single-digit grower for the year. I expect GS product to be roughly flat, maybe down a couple of a million dollars.
The reason on the down $2 million on Government Solutions is really the project runoff that we had in international. Meaning that we had a large order last year that is not recurring this year. It is not the business is shrinking. That is how I think about overall Government Solutions. If I bring that to New York City, I think that New York City for the full year in total is going to grow high single digits, low double digits. That depends on exactly when we get these installs done. Again, we went a little faster in March than we thought. It looks pretty good in April. Overall, non-New York City, just to kind of round it out, I expect non-New York City to be a low double-digit grower, service-wise for the total year of 2026.
Those are the kind of 6 points of truth on GS, Faiza. Is that helpful?
Yes, very helpful. Thank you. I wanted to ask about, you know, the incremental cost savings that you mentioned. I think you said $10 million annualized savings. When do we start to see that? Is that gonna help in 2026? If so, you know, considering that you didn't raise the EBITDA guide, like are there offsets? Are you incrementally reinvesting somewhere? Just additional color around that would be helpful.
Yeah, sure. The easy short answer is, it's already in the guide. Okay. The additional detail on that is why is it already in the guide, but we're talking about it now is because literally, we announced the actions that generated those savings in March. Our earnings call was at the end of February, so obviously we had announced it internally, so we couldn't talk about that. That's the financial side. And as to where that'll show up, it'll may show up in R&D. There are R&D type of activities that may show up in R&D. It may show up in SG&A and OpEx outside of R&D. As David said, the whole reason that we're doing this, we're controlling what we can control to invest in the future of the company.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from David Koning with Baird.
Yeah. Hey, guys. Thanks. I guess, first of all, in the Commercial Services business, just so we think correctly sequentially, it seems like the only two things really to think about sequentially, one, you typically grow 8%-10% sequentially, just seasonality.
Two, the true up to $2 million y ou get that back. Right? Those would be your two main things to think about sequentially?
Yeah, that's right. I'll, like I think I'll just give you the number, Dave, for everybody, is I think that sequential growth from Q1 to Q2 is going to be a little stronger. one, I don't expect the FMC churn number to quite be as big. Which I don't know if that was in your bridge or not. I expect that number to be in the low to mid double digits sequentially for CS.
Yeah. Yep, that makes sense. Okay. Then government EBITDA, when we think about, you know, I guess even transitioning from this year to next, once next year we get to kind of a more clean, you know, clean number and everything, should it be bigger than 2025? Really where I'm going with this is you have the two components.
You have New York, I guess with all the extra revenue, does that EBITDA, is that gonna be bigger EBITDA than it was before you got the extra revenue? Then is the EBITDA from the non-New York business, just given all the growth there, gonna also be bigger? Just making sure the expenses aren't overlaying the revenue. Just to understand that better.
Yeah. I don't wanna split that between New York and non-New York, but I will tell you overall, David, is I think you're, you're talking about 2027 to 2026, right? Not 2026 to 2025.
kind of, but I'm kinda just making sure that by 2027, when everything's clean, that will at least be bigger than kind of the pre-growth in both parts of the business.
Oh, I'm sorry. Okay, yeah, I got your question. In other words, let I want to make sure I'm answering the question you're asking. Is 27 bigger than 25?
Right. Yes.
Yes. The answer to your question is yes, it is. Yes, it is.
Okay.
I think, let me give a couple detail points on how you can triangulate them. So let's talk about margins of the GS business. We did the in the prepared remarks, I did the pacing, which is a little bit outdated from our last call, but how we get to low 20s pacing for 2026 by quarter. That overall gets us to the low 20s. I expect to be in, of EBITDA percentage, I expect to be in the mid-20s by the time we get to 2027. If we think about what we talked about previously and what that growth looks like, the non-New York City growth that we talked about in the third quarter was double digits. It's double-digit growth.
New York City growth, I still expect that to grow on the service side. Obviously, I'm not gonna be growing on the product side because the majority of the installation will be behind us, but I don't expect that revenue to step back. So you've got good growth on the non-New York City side. You've got flattish growth on the New York City side, maybe a little bit positive, and you've got a couple basis points of margin expansion, mostly from the cut into the Mosaic savings.
Wow. Okay. That's great. Thank you.
You bet.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one one. Our next question comes from Louie DiPalma with William Blair.
Good afternoon, David, Craig, Anne, and Mark.
Hey, Louie.
Hi, Louie.
Following up on the last question, has there been any change for the 2027 EBITDA outlook for the GS business? I think on the third quarter earnings call, you said that EBITDA should be in the range of $135 million-$145 million. Has that been not changed?
No change, Louie.
Great. And my other question, has there been any developments in terms of the trials and commercialization of the European rental car tolling products? I know that there's been I think there was the agreement in Italy last year. Any color there would be great. Thanks.
Yeah, we continue to operate in many of the same countries, although the fleets are getting slightly larger. There was some growth there, you know, on a relative basis, small, but it is continuing to grow. Yeah, we are operating in and around the city of Milan in Italy, as well as we continue to operate in Ireland, a little bit in France, and Spain.
Great. Thanks, David, and thanks, everyone.
Yeah, thanks.
Thanks, Louie.
Thank you.
That concludes today's question and answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.