Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Head of Capital Markets, Viatris, Bill Szablewski.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Viatris Investor Event. I'm Bill Szablewski, Head of Capital Markets and Investor Relations. It's great to see everyone here in a full room today. Before we begin, a few comments on our forward-looking and disclaimer. During today's discussion, we'll be making forward-looking statements on a number of matters, including our strategic initiatives and priorities, pipeline, products, and long-term financial targets. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ materially from today's presentation. Please refer to today's presentation and our SEC filings for more information. With that, I'm pleased to introduce our leadership team, starting with our CEO, Scott Smith, our Chief R&D Officer, Philippe Martin, our Chief Commercial Officer, Corinne Le Goff, our Chief Strategy Officer, Hemanth J. Varghese, and our Chief Financial Officer, Doretta Mistras.
With that, now I'd like to hand over today's presentation to Scott.
Thank you, Bill. Thank you very much, and thank you all for being here today. We're very excited about getting going here, talking about what's been accomplished to date, where we sit today, and where we're going, particularly over the next 3-5 years. We're very, very excited about the position the company is in and where we're going. You're gonna see a lot of me today, getting up and down, introducing speakers, talking about the business. But before we get into the bulk of the presentation, I just wanna show a couple of quick slides to set the table, for the presentation. As many of you who followed the story know, we've done a lot of work over the last 5 years to get the company in the position it is today.
We've merged two companies, divested four major businesses, stabilized and returned the base business to growth, which is very, very important for our growth story going forward. Strengthened the balance sheet, returned capital to shareholders, invested in innovation, refreshed the leadership team and the board, and again, we'll talk about that a little bit later as well, and completed an enterprise-wide strategic review. You know, these were purposeful actions that collectively have positioned us for the next phase. As we enter into 2026 and beyond, we're a more focused, more efficient, more future-ready organization. If we take a look at where we sit today, we're a strong, diversified global healthcare company. We actually have three businesses that we run. We've got a global generics powerhouse business that we run.
We've got an established brands business that has some of the most iconic brands in the world, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Xanax, Viagra, just to name a few. We've got a growing innovative medicines business. As we mentioned in February, we expect to generate approximately $14.7 billion in revenue this year, $4.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $2.40 a share in EPS, and generate approximately $2.2 billion in free cash flow. We operate in 165 countries. We have approximately 1,300 unique products. We reach roughly 1 billion patients annually with our medication, which is a pretty remarkable statistic. It makes us the most far-reaching company in the healthcare world in terms of the number of patients that we touch on an annual basis.
It gives us a tremendous platform to be able to positively affect the outcome of human healthcare. Something we're very, very proud of. We also have 27 manufacturing, packaging, distribution sites all around the world. These are our 26 and beyond strategic initiatives. Drive the base business, fuel our innovative portfolio, and modernize for sustainable growth. We're driving our base business, disciplined execution, evolving the portfolio towards durable, higher-margin generic products, 505(b)(2) and others, and we've done, I think a pretty good job over the last couple of years of bringing those forward. We wanna fuel the innovative portfolio, both the pipeline internally and looking for things externally, innovative assets in-market, accretive assets that we can bring and really drive our growth. We'll talk a lot about that as we go forward.
We also wanna modernize the company for sustainable growth. We wanna simplify our structure, enhance our resource allocation, and strengthen our capabilities. These are the critical strategic initiatives that you're gonna hear a lot about as we go through the presentation. Just a little bit on capital allocation, and it's gonna be a focus of Doretta's presentation as we go forward here. I won't steal her thunder too much, but I just want you to know that, you know, between now and 2030, we're gonna generate at least $11 billion in cash and deploy it. We're gonna be balanced, as we have been in the past, between returning capital to shareholders and doing business development, which is a little bit of a new angle for us.
We've done a little bit of business development, but having that capital to deploy to build a portfolio of growth assets to go alongside what is a strengthening and growing base business gives us the ability to feel very confident about the targets that we're talking about in the future. Those targets are as we take a look at 2030, we expect to see 5%-6% total revenue growth, 7%-8% adjusted EBITDA growth, 9%-10% adjusted EPS growth, and I think very importantly, more than $3 billion a year in annual free cash flow by the time we get to 2030. Important to note, these long-term targets consist of base business targets combined with other potential additional drivers, including cenerimod , selatogrel, and the addition of accretive business development.
I, you know, can't emphasize enough how important that solid base business, which we've now turned to growth, is for what our future prospects look on. What we do with cenerimod, selatogrel, business development builds off that solid base that we've managed to create over the last couple of years. Doretta is going to talk through much more explicitly the financial drivers behind these targets, and you'll get a good understanding of how we go from base business, other drivers to the long-term combined targets that we have for 2023. That'll be an important focus of her presentation. Here's sort of the lineup for today. We're gonna talk about R&D capabilities in the pipeline first, which is very, very important.
We made a lot of pipeline progress over the last little while, and we expect to continue to do so over the next few years. Our commercial capabilities and building blocks for growth, and I think our commercial organization, when we take a look at the assets that a company has, the strength of that, the breadth of that geographically is really one of the strengths of the company. That's gonna be, Corinne's gonna talk about that and how we not only continue to support the base, but also pivot to innovative products as well. Hemanth is gonna talk a little bit about our portfolio strategy and business development and where we're going and how we see accomplishing our business development goals.
Then, Doretta is gonna wrap up before we get to Q&A with taking a look at the financial framework, capital allocation strategy, how do we get to our long-term targets, and how do we really accelerate shareholder value. Those are the four major portions of the presentation today. The first one is, as I say, on pipeline, and Philippe Martin is gonna come up. Just to give you, for those of you who don't know Philippe, he was the Chief R&D Officer. He is the Chief R&D Officer at Viatris. That's a bad time to break that news, right? He's a highly experienced R&D leader with over 25 years of experience. He was prior Chief of R&D at BioAtla. He had many leadership positions at Celgene.
He's developed and either been involved with or been singularly responsible for the development of some very significant molecules in the world today, Remicade, Simponi, Otezla, Impoyz, just to name a few. Philippe has been the engine behind the research and development of a number of blockbuster drugs, and we hope he continues to do the same. His job is to continue to focus on the pipeline, again, the base pipeline, continuing to drive there, but also starting to bring in more and more innovative products into that pipeline. Without further ado, Philippe.
Thank you, Scott. All right. Good morning, everyone. It's a real pleasure to have the opportunity to go over Viatris R&D capabilities and pipeline. First, let me start by saying that in R&D, we look at portfolio in three distinct areas. First, our generic medicines, which is composed of our core and complex generics, and for which we have a strong R&D foundation with our Mylan heritage. Our value-added medicine is the second area that includes established brands and 505(b)(2) , for which we also have a strong R&D foundation with our Upjohn heritage. Last is our innovative portfolio of medicine, which is emerging. The recent acquisition of assets like selatogrel, cenerimod, or Pitolisant in Japan, and their respective development teams have reinforced our expertise in the area of innovative development.
Now, as Scott mentioned, the portfolio is evolving, and it's evolving more toward a more complex and differentiated assets. In order to achieve that, our R&D team is using a broad range of capabilities, technologies, and expertise. We also have a broad geographic presence, which is allowing us to tap into the best talent around the world and leverage their local knowledge to get our medicine approved around the world. Now, if we turn to our innovative capabilities specifically, as I said, over the last couple of years, we've added significant talent to our innovative platform through the Idorsia and Aculys acquisition. Together, they bring proven experience in developing and bringing innovative medicines to market.
Importantly, these talents covered all phases of development from IND to approval and lifecycle management. We combine this talent with our existing CMC and medical affairs expertise, that gives us all the tools necessary to successfully develop innovative assets. Now, in addition to our talented colleagues, we've built significant expertise in the area of device technologies. It's important because it's a cornerstone to the development of assets like respiratory medicine, like generic injectables, for instance, our GLP-1s or our transdermal patches, with like Xulane and Xulane low dose. This deep knowledge also applies to our innovative portfolio. It's an important success factor for some of our innovative assets like selatogrel and its auto-injector.
We have a long, successful track record of developing and manufacturing this complex medicine and are building on this experience to develop our next wave of 505(b)(2) and complex injectables. Now if we look at our complex injectable, so in addition to the device expertise, which is critical for complex injectables, we also have a deep expertise and proven track record in across a broad range of delivery and modified release technologies. Importantly, we've spent quite a bit of time and energy in developing our in-house analytical capabilities. That's important because for assets like complex generics, but like GLP-1s, oligonucleotides, complex molecule, having these capabilities is critical in order to show API sameness.
We have many successes, including very recently in this area, and some of these successes are highlighted on this slide. Now, in addition to complex injectable that I just mentioned, we have three additional key areas that will power our future growth in complex generics. For these three areas, we're building on our proven capabilities in complex injectables and complex respiratory generics. For GLP-1 specifically, we are covering the full spectrum of injectable and oral medicines, and we believe we're uniquely positioned for success with our integrated drug-device development and peptide formulation expertise. The same applies to our oligonucleotides, where we'll leverage the same capabilities, but in this case, in particular, our strong analytical chemistry team to meet the challenges of API sameness.
Respiratory, we have a fully integrated development team here as well, and we have a very strong track record, and we'll be leveraging this talent and the team to develop our next generation respiratory medicines. Now turning to our medical affairs team. Having a strong, patient-centered medical affairs team focused on our innovative and value-added portfolio of medicine is critical to our success and to our ability to launch innovative assets successfully. Through the Upjohn merger, we were able to retain a medical affairs team that is that has a strong track record in developing and launching iconic brands like Lipitor and Lyrica, brands that shape clinical practice.
If we turn to the pipeline and our portfolio of value-added medicines, we have used the capabilities and technologies that I just mentioned to further leverage our existing portfolio of established brands. We've implemented a rigorous lifecycle management to maximize the opportunity for each medicine. This year we have multiple important milestones, including four anticipated regulatory decisions, starting with Effexor in GAD, in generalized anxiety disorder in Japan in the first half of this year. Next, I will focus on our near-term U.S. opportunities, meloxicam, and our transdermal patches. For meloxicam, as you know, we are very proud of the strong data that we generated and believe that it's the clinical profile that we've seen is highly competitive.
We were able to demonstrate that fast-acting meloxicam has a pharmacokinetic profile and speed of onset that is far superior than Mobic. We were also able to demonstrate strong and sustained analgesic efficacy with a profile superior to placebo. Importantly, to a profile superior to its opioid comparator, Tramadol, in two different pain models. Lastly, we were able to demonstrate that significant opioid sparing effect for fast-acting meloxicam, and clearly, we intend to have that included as part of our product label. We submitted our NDA earlier this year and anticipate we will get a regulatory decision in the second half of 2026. Now switching to our portfolio of transdermal contraceptives. We are leveraging our experience with Xulane and our estrogen patches.
We are developing weekly small, thin, discreet patches that have best-in-class adhesion. These patches are designed for today's patient's need and in particular for patients seeking reduced or no estrogen exposure, which limit the potential for serious safety risks associated with prolonged exposure. For our low-dose estrogen patch, FDA regulatory decision is anticipated in the second half of 2026, and this will be followed by a progestin-only patch for which phase 3 enrollment is currently finishing. Now let me turn to our innovative portfolio. We are focusing on assets that have a potential to have a differentiated profile and make a meaningful difference to patients. We have multiple important milestone this year, including anticipated regulatory decision for Pitolisant in two different indications in Japan.
That GLP-1 agonists in Canada and Australia, and data readout for Nefecon in IgA nephropathy in Japan. Next, I will focus on our two most innovative assets, selatogrel and cenerimod. Let me start with selatogrel. Selatogrel is a P2Y12 inhibitor that is being investigated for patient self-administered emergency treatment of recurrent MI. In the treatment of acute MI, early intervention is key. Data, including recent data, has shown that early platelet inhibition is key in driving better and long-term outcomes for patients. Mechanistically, this is supported by the fact that the thrombus that is formed at inception of the acute MI is platelet-rich, but within hours will transition to fibrin-rich thrombus that is much less responsive to antiplatelet treatment. There is currently no emergency treatment available for early intervention.
Commercially available P2Y12 inhibitors are either too slow to act from a PK/PD standpoint with a duration of effect that is too long and significantly increases the risk of severe bleeding in case of emergency surgery. Or they cannot be self-administered due to their route of administration. selatogrel was developed specifically for the emergency treatment of acute MI. The profile demonstrated in phase two is ideal for emergency treatment. We saw a robust and rapid effect that is of short duration, but that is long enough to give patient ample time to get to the hospital for proper diagnosis and treatment. That effect, importantly, was obtained on top of background chronic platelet therapy, either aspirin or aspirin in combination with P2Y12 inhibitors, typically, clopidogrel.
We did not observe any major bleeding events as part of the study, and that despite the fact that most of the patients were on background dual antiplatelet therapy. We believe that this is explained mechanistically by the high selectivity observed with selatogrel, which leads to no off-target effects interfering with hemostasis. This ideal profile led to the initiation of a large global registration study called SOS-AMI. I'm gonna go over the design as briefly as I can. This is a simple design, though, that was developed in collaboration with CHAOS and FDA under a SPA. Selatogrel was also granted Fast Track designation by the agency. To be eligible, patients need to have a qualified MI.
The patient and the caregiver, including family members, are then trained to use the auto-injector and trained to recognize the symptom of acute MI, typically chest pain. They are then randomized to placebo or selatogrel 1-to-1, and then followed until they have an event. An event is defined as an injection of either selatogrel or placebo. This is an event-driven study. The primary endpoint is death from any cause within 7 days or non-fatal AMI within 2 days after study treatment self-administration. The outcomes are ranked based on severity from the most severe to the least severe outcome, and we are targeting a risk reduction of 20%, as was observed in other antiplatelet studies that were studied on top of standard of care.
That said, none of these studies were able to achieve platelet inhibition nearly as early as we think we'll be able to achieve with selatogrel. Remember, time is muscle, so early intervention is key. The primary safety endpoint is the occurrence of Type 3 or 5 treatment emergent bleeding event according to the BARC definition within 2 days of study treatment administration. What have we observed so far as part of this study? The study is progressing as planned. Patients are self-injecting early. They are generally injecting for the right reasons and are following up with the proper diagnosis at the hospital. So far, we've not observed any signal, safety signal, in particular with regard to severe bleeding.
An independent and unblinded safety committee has met 13 times, and at this point has recommended to continue the trial unchanged. SOS-AMI is a large global study. We believe we'll hit the number of patients we need by year-end, and anticipate a readout around the first half of 2027. Now, let me turn to cenerimod. Cenerimod is an oral S1P1 receptor modulator that is being investigated for the treatment of SLE patients and lupus nephritis patients. SLE is a disease that affects many patients worldwide. This is a heterogeneous disease that affects females a lot more than males, and can range from mild to severe depending on which organ of the body are affected. Limited treatment option exists. They range from old immunosuppressant, often combined with oral corticosteroids, to more recent biologics.
Overall, the need for higher efficacy and better safety remains, in particular with regards to the risk of serious infection, which can be very severe with these immunosuppressants and biologics. Due to the heterogeneous nature of the disease, a multimodal approach is expected to remain the standard of care for SLE treatment. In summary, there is an unmet need, a high unmet need that remains in the treatment of SLE, particularly for innovative oral therapy. With a new MOA and a differentiated benefit risk profile when given on top of current standard of care and prior to biologic treatment. Now, cenerimod is an oral small molecule and S1P1 receptor modulator, which, as opposed to other treatment under development or approved treatment, has been shown to act on the three pillars of SLE pathogenesis.
S1P1 has a long track record. I should know I developed one that has a strong track record of efficacy and safety and as a disease-modifying therapy. We've seen that in 2 other T cells and B cell driven autoimmune diseases like MS and ulcerative colitis. Now we've generated robust data for cenerimod in SLE patients that demonstrates a highly competitive and importantly, very consistent profile across 3 phase 2 studies at the chosen dose of 4 mg. Let me focus on the largest data set, which is our phase 2b CARE study that has shown a robust and consistent profile across all endpoints with the 4 mg dose, which was the highest dose tested and the dose that has the most optimal benefit risk profile.
Regarding the primary endpoint, modified SLEDAI-2K at 6 months, we saw a clinically meaningful and nominally statistically significant effect with the 4 milligram dose. The secondary endpoint, which was SRI-4 response at 6 months, was consistent with what we saw in the modified SLEDAI-2K. Now, what was particularly important and impressive is that we saw an increased response in treatment effect in the pre-planned analysis investigating patient with interferon-one high signature. Regarding the safety profile, we observe an optimized S1P profile. Particular importance, cenerimod was not associated with any increased risk of SAEs or infection and opportunistic infection, and that these infection remain a major concern for physician and SLE patients. Based on this robust profile and consistent profile, we initiated a large confirmatory pivotal program called OPUS.
Consists of two identical studies. They are multicenter double-blind, placebo-controlled studies. In each study, approximately 420 moderate to severe SLE patients receiving concurrent SLE background therapy will be randomized 1:1 to either cenerimod or placebo for 12 months. The primary endpoint is SRI-4 at month 12 compared to baseline, and patients will be stratified into three different strata, including one with interferon-one high/low. Importantly, we have a forced oral corticosteroid tapering, which will be required from month 5 to month 8 in all subjects that have a baseline oral corticosteroid dose equal to or higher than 10 milligrams at randomization.
We've designed this confirmatory study and this pivotal program, taking into account the learnings from our phase 2 study, learnings from recent phase 3 studies, and feedback from various health authorities, including FDA and EMA. This program was designed to maximize cenerimod treatment effect versus placebo. Both studies are identical, as I mentioned, and well-powered, which means that they can be pooled together to see a higher difference. Based on the data from our two phase 2 studies, we've modified some of the inclusion criteria. In particular, we are enriching the population for patients that are interferon-one high. We have a target of 70%, and these studies are now enrolled, and we are above that 70%.
We also need to have patients that are more active than what we saw in the phase 2 study. We've included a BILAG 1A or 2B entry criteria. Nothing is new here. This entry criteria have generally been used in phase 3 studies across the board. The primary endpoint is also now at 1 year. The data I was showing before was at 6 months for the phase 2 study, and 1 year is what is expected for a pivotal study in SLE. Importantly, that will allow our 4 milligram dose to reach full effect by 1 year. Also that duration allows for oral corticosteroid, which I mentioned is important, and typically leads to an increased treatment effect versus placebo.
Patients that are not able to taper off are considered non-responder. As I said, fully, the studies are now fully enrolled, with an interferon-one high percentage exceeding 70%. We anticipate results for both study in the first half of 2027. We've also initiated an additional phase 3 study in lupus nephritis that is currently actively enrolling. The S1P1 MOA is well suited for multiple expansion opportunities beyond SLE and lupus nephritis. In summary, we've built a resilient R&D engine and are building on Viatris' strong foundation to drive next-generation innovation. Our pipeline has evolved and will continue to evolve over the next few years, but we have a significant number of near and long-term catalysts across the pipeline, from complex generics to value-added medicine and innovative medicines.
I thank you for your attention. I think I was able to cover that in the time allotted. I will now turn it back to Scott. Thank you.
Thank you, Philippe. Thank you. We're just gonna leave Philippe's last slide on here just for a second that something I'd like to address. First of all, I mean, we have a very strong R&D engine, both on the innovative side and on the generic side, importantly. Been very productive. A lot of focus on the value-add medicines, 505 (b)(2), et cetera. We anticipate 95 approvals this year around the world, and it's important to know that I think a couple of those are on the innovative side with IMVEXXY, and Patisiran, right?
Yeah.
We've got some of the value adds, particularly in the U.S., Effexor in Japan. We've got Quinlo. We've got fast-acting meloxicam. We've got the presbyopia. But that would leave 90 of them on the generic side, and so we don't take our eye off that, right? Even though it's just a note here. There's too many to list, but it's of the 95 approvals that we're expecting during the course of the year, 90 of them are on the generic side, 4 or 5 on the value-add side, and a couple on the innovative side. We'll continue to evolve that portfolio. We'll never fully move away from the generics, but we will try and continue to evolve that portfolio towards higher margin, stickier revenue type of complex generics and 505(b)(2) over time.
I think we've made a lot of progress over the last couple of years on the pipeline. We're starting to really bring some new value-added, innovative things to the marketplace along with the base business, and we're gonna continue to do that. You know, Philippe talked about cenerimod, selatogrel. There's a lot of interest that we get in that. We're very, very excited about the potential of those products. If approved, we believe they're global blockbuster drugs, which can have a tremendous impact on the company overall. In 2026, we remain laser-focused on the execution of the near-term launches that we're talking about, right? We need to make sure that we launch the Quinlos, the meloxicams, the presbyopias, others, as maximally as we can.
We'll get to the launch of cenerimod and selatogrel, and we'll hopefully see some data later this year or early next year. We remain tremendously focused on the launches that we have in hand in 2026. Thank you very much, Philippe. Now I'm gonna ask Corinne to come up please to the stage for us. She's the Chief Commercial Officer. She's been with us, and I was surprised when I read this, that it's 2 years that Corinne's been with us. She came and joined in April 2024. She's a very accomplished biotech and pharmaceutical executive, more than 25 years of experience leading and building highly successful commercial teams.
Her prior work experience includes Moderna as the Chief Commercial Officer, Amgen, Roche, Merck, Sanofi, and Pfizer, it says here, but that was really Pharmacia where we worked together 25 years ago.
I know.
Corinne.
I was hoping you wouldn't say the years. Good morning, everyone. Today, I want to do three things. I will talk about the strength and the durability of our base business of generics and established brands. I will reinforce the key building blocks of growth of our current business and demonstrate the power and the discipline of our commercial organization. I will show you how we plan to accelerate revenue growth and enhance capabilities through the launch of value-added and innovative medicines. Viatris benefits from a very strong commercial platform from which we expect to continue to grow. We have a broad commercial footprint and scale that reaches patients across more than 165 countries around the world, and we have a physical presence with commercial presence in 70 countries with a comprehensive set of capabilities.
We also have demonstrated deep commercial leadership and expertise over many years and across more than 10 therapeutic areas. You can see here that we have a large sales force, approximately 8,500 people, that drive product adoption and customer engagement around the globe, and we benefit from a broad, very diversified portfolio. This unique combination of those foundational strengths is really key to secure resilience and long-term competitive advantage. Now, we expect over the next 5 years to see growth in all geographic regions. What I want to do here is to review the specific growth drivers for each region. I'll start with Europe. In Europe, our promoted brands continue to drive growth, and we're also recognized as a generics leader, notably in key countries like France and Italy, and that's because of the breadth of our generics portfolio offering.
Now, in North America, we have very successfully gained leadership in complex generics. We have some examples here with Breyena. Those complex generics, as you know, drive more sustainable growth. We continue to expand our portfolio of promoted brands. Now, in emerging markets and in Greater China, the majority of our revenues come from established brands. Now in these markets, we leverage the trust and loyalty to these iconic brands that are embedded in physician prescribing habits and in patients' preferences. In JANZ, while we continue to see and to experience government-mandated price decreases on generics and LOE brands, we anticipate that we will return to growth in Japan, notably with new innovative brand launches, and I'm going to come back to this in a few slides. Our generics established brands portfolio is powerful. It's a powerful cash-generating engine, and it's very healthy.
Let me dive deeper in how we're going to continue to perform and succeed in global generics. Like, this is not a static business. Viatris is a high-performing, constantly renewing platform. Every year, we aim to replenish the portfolio with new products revenue that more than offset natural erosion. Now, IQVIA and our own internal projections indicate that between 2025 and 2030, the pharmaceutical industry faces a $107 billion patent cliff. I'm talking only about non-biologics, so with several high-revenue non-biologic products that are losing exclusivity in developed markets. Viatris plans to develop generics for the highest value molecules, focusing around about 70% of the LOE value. Now, as we replenish the portfolio, at the same time, we actively optimize the portfolio with regular pruning to maintain a stable gross margin profile.
Most importantly, we continue to shift the portfolio towards complex generics that drive moderate revenues and other oral small molecules. We anticipate in the U.S. an increase of 35% in the number of complex generic launches in the coming years. In developed market, we expect to deliver mid-single digits net sales growth for generics through 2030. Frankly, our continued performance is anchored on our expertise on our very highly competitive positioning, but also on the strength and on the quality of the relationship that we have with our customers that expect from us that we provide quality and continuity of supply. For the established brands, they also require active management to maintain demand and even to drive growth.
The commercial approach here is tailored to each local market and leverages the deep market insights of the local dynamics. We have very strong local expertise. These brands being established require relatively low promotional intensity models, but they do require continuous education of prescribers on brand's track records, as well as engagement with those brand loyal patients through self-pay channels. On this chart here, we see that we are very good owners of these brands and that we continue to demonstrate that we can deliver growth. This example here is an example of the performance that comes from China, where we were able to successfully retrain brands that went through VBP, while in comparison, other multinational companies could not do that.
This is one example, this is one country, but we see similar patterns of resilience and growth in other countries as well. Thanks to this very targeted commercial investment, thanks to the disciplined commercial execution, the established brands portfolio is expected to deliver low single-digit growth through 2030. I have reviewed the strengths of the best business. Let me now discuss how the commercial organization is charting a credible and again, disciplined path to successful launch of our pipeline of value-added and innovative medicines. As I mentioned earlier, Viatris already has a broad commercial infrastructure and a lot of the fundamentals are in place. We have a lot of expertise on the team, including new talent that have joined Viatris recently with recent experience of launching blockbuster innovative products.
We are building on our existing strengths and retooling and investing in areas where we have opportunities to compete more effectively. That's notably broadening capabilities in areas like market access, health economics, outcome research, and also bringing more sophisticated commercial analytics and insights. Obviously, we're also taking a digital-first approach as we aim to simplify and automate our workflows. We have a robust pipeline of 12 key anticipated launches across major geographies, and notably, as you can see here in the US and in Japan. Of course, we expect cenerimod and selatogrel to be global launches with blockbuster potential. What I'm going to do in the next few slides, I will explain the commercial strategies for key anticipated launches, highlighting positioning, revenue potential, and execution roadmap. Before I do that, I want to spend a minute on Japan.
Today, our portfolio of generics and LOE brands is the target for intense government cost control policies and has been declining year-over-year. Now Japan is the third largest pharmaceutical market in the world and remains a very high reward environment for innovation. It is therefore a strategic market for Viatris, and we decided to invest in building a more innovative portfolio. You remember we acquired last year Aculys with two assets in CNS, Spydia and Pitolisant. We are anticipating the approval of Effexor for generalized anxiety disorders soon, and as you can imagine, our launch readiness is well underway, and we are planning to launch Nefecon in IgA nephropathy next year. Altogether, we believe that this portfolio of new products will help us chart a path to return to growth with potential combined sales up to $300 million by 2030.
Let me turn to the U.S. Fast-acting meloxicam has been designed as a new non-opioid option for moderate to severe acute pain, and both physicians and patients confirmed that this is exactly what they want. They want a product that can offer fast pain relief and opioid reduction. Let's look at the size of the opportunity. Pain is a heterogeneous indication, and the market is very broad, but we plan to focus on acute pain episodes that affect about 80 million patients each year in the U.S., and that's a number that grows about 2%-3% every year. Now, half of these patients are still treated with an opioid to get the relief that they need. Right? For us, the opportunity concentrates where opioid reliance is the highest and concentrates with medical specialties that manage high volume of acute pain cases.
We intend, as we go about this launch, we intend to optimize the launch for speed, and we will have a very laser-targeted approach. We will prioritize fast and broad value-based access. We will build a specialty field force that will target the high volume specialties and postoperative pain, mainly. We will focus on the outpatient setting, where we see the need for fast-acting oral pain medicines. Now, should we expand beyond these targets, we plan to do so in partnership to broaden access to non-surgical pain and a larger patient population in emergency medicine, in dentistry, or with PCPs or NPs. We believe the potential peak net sales for fast-acting meloxicam is up to $500 million and is driven by a patent exclusivity beyond three years and an expansion beyond the initial post-surgery market.
Another growth opportunity for the US market is the expected launch of our novel low-dose estrogen contraceptive patch, and we expect to launch this patch in the second half of this year. It will be the lowest estrogen dose patch available. Now, the contraceptive market is a large market. More than 50 million women in the U.S. are on contraceptives. What's interesting is that among those users of combination birth control, half use already a low-dose estrogen pill that generally have you know fewer side effects. Now, the patch market in itself is still a niche market, but it is growing at 5% a year, and it is very promotionally sensitive. It's an opportunity for us as we launch a branded product to drive market share.
To make our low-dose estrogen weekly patch an option of choice for young women, we will focus on creating rapid access. We plan to target patient communities that respond well to digital marketing, and we will build a specialty sales force detailing OBGYNs, targeting in priority current patch prescribers. We believe that our low-dose estrogen weekly patch has a peak net sales potential of $180 million or higher. We also have another patch in development. It is a progestin-only patch that offers an estrogen-free contraceptive option and could be important to expand the market for women, notably with a BMI above 30. We believe that peak net sales of our women's health portfolio with those two patches in the US could be potentially more than $400 million in total. Let me talk about cenerimod.
We are, as Philippe mentioned, and as Scott mentioned, very excited about this opportunity. First oral therapy targeting simultaneously multiple pathways in SLE. Lupus is a disease that affects more than 5 million worldwide, mostly women, but it is tricky to diagnose because it affects many tissues, many organ systems, and causes a variety of symptoms. Each year, 400,000 patients are diagnosed globally. But among those that are diagnosed, over 60% of those patients already have moderate to severe lupus, and today, about half of the patients need more advanced therapy. Our objective is to position cenerimod as the backbone of SLE therapies before biologics. We will focus our commercial efforts on driving awareness of the burden of disease and on establishing the potential benefits of a multipronged immunomodulation approach in SLE.
We are also investing in generating pharmacoeconomic evidence to support a clear payer value proposition to ensure broad access in a competitive space. An important point that we're going to work with the patient community. We're going to work with patient advocacy groups to build a patient design support program and facilitate patient onboarding. We believe that the cenerimod global peak net sales potential is over $1 billion and could be more if utilized in lupus nephritis and other potential indications. Finally, selatogrel has the potential to be the first patient-administered treatment for heart attacks at symptom onset. It's a completely new paradigm in the treatment of MI. Now, the addressable population here for selatogrel is large.
Globally, there are more than 20 million people who already had an MI recently, and the global incidence of MI is about 3 million people per year, 800,000 in the U.S. only. Now, 20% of the people who survive will have another MI, and sometimes a year, a couple of years later, maybe 5 years later, and this despite being treated on maintenance therapy. We anticipate first targeting these patients who can recognize the symptoms of an MI because they already had one. Once you had one, you know what it feels like. We are focusing on preparing for this paradigm change to position selatogrel as an acute rescue therapy. I want to emphasize here that Viatris has deep cardiovascular expertise around the world and a lot of experience with self-administered acute rescue medications.
We know from this experience that physician education, patient education is for symptom onset and recognition of the symptoms will be essential. We will also focus on establishing a value framework that will be linked to the reduction of the severity of the heart attack and subsequent complications, including death, to support value-based access. We believe the global peak net sales potential is over $1 billion and potentially more with potential subsequent lifecycle indications. To conclude the commercial section, I want to leave you with three messages. First, Viatris benefits from a resilient, diversified generics and established brands foundation that we believe is positioned for durable and profitable growth. Two, Viatris has a unique competitive advantage with a disciplined and experienced commercial organization with global scale for efficient execution.
Viatris is transforming and building on a strong base to accelerate growth with 12 value-added and innovative medicine launches anticipated over the next 4 years. The commercial organization is primed to deliver. Thank you very much. Scott?
I think Corinne made a great case outlining the commercial case behind some of the value-added medicines and selatogrel, cenerimod. I get a lot of questions, you know, why were those two assets, selatogrel and cenerimod, why were you so interested in them? You know, a couple of reasons why I think they could be really outstanding assets, much more than we project even here. That is the S1P mechanism, very well understood. I've been involved in the development and commercialization of one, as has Philippe. They've shown, there's approvals for S1Ps in neurology and multiple sclerosis and IBD and other places. Depending on what the safety profile looks like when we get that database, if the safety database is appropriate, we could expand the indications to many other indications.
It's got a long IP runway. By the time we get to the end of that, we could be in five, six, seven different potential indications. It plays in rheumatology, dermatology, neurology, GI, so it's a very well understood, broadly applicable, immunomodulatory mechanism of action that really gives it tremendous potential. Focused on getting the first indication first, looking at that safety database. After that, there could be a lot of opportunities to take that molecule different places. In terms of selatogrel, I don't think there's any company in the world positioned better for acute rescue medicine as Corinne said, than us. First in kind, acute MI.
You know, it's something that is near to me. Two family members on my wife's side have both died of acute MI in the first instance. Tremendous amount of risk to the other members of her family because of the genetic profile of those people. You know, one acute MI incident every 40 seconds in the United States with very little in terms of acute treatment. This could be a real not only advance in medical care, but a tremendous blockbuster drug as well when you think about the applicability of it, the label expansion opportunities, going into maybe high-risk patients as opposed to just those who have already had an MI. There's lots of places we can take it.
Again, depending on if the first study is positive, what's the safety database look like, et cetera. We're very excited about those opportunities. Again, we're very excited about all the things we have in hand to execute in the short term, and getting the data on selatogrel and cenerimod. Thank you, Corinne, for outlining that case. You know, the next member who's gonna come up is the newest member of the team. The only member of the team that we cannot properly pronounce his name, so we just call him H. I'm gonna ask H to come up. You know, when we were looking for somebody to come take the strategy BD role, you know, we were looking for somebody that had a broad number of skills, had played in different markets.
Again, we have three businesses: generics, established products, and innovative. The generics has a value-added component to it. We were lucky to come across Hemanth, who has experience in all of those areas, and very few people have that kind of breadth of experience. I think he's done over 50 deals in his experience in different companies. He's also got some sort of commercial experience, being a president and chief operating officer of Venus Concept, an aesthetics company, and so a very broad range of experiences, very deep knowledge in the BD space, done a number of deals, and is really gonna be critical in helping us build the portfolio as we go forward. Hemanth, thank you.
Thanks, Scott. Thanks, everybody. Really excited to be here today. As Scott said, just coming up on a year now, in a couple weeks, of being with the company. Incredible time to be a part of it, given this critical time in our evolution. I'm gonna try to talk a little bit about today to our portfolio strategy. As Scott mentioned, where we are today, where we're looking to evolve, why we have a right to win in the areas that we're planning on growing, and then to add some color on how our global business development function is intended to help be a key driver to that growth over time. The strategy part of this is actually pretty simple.
We spent a lot of time with Scott, the ELT, and the board over the last year, really aligning on that, and Scott said it right up front, "Drive the base business, invest in the innovative portfolio, modernize for growth." This. You're gonna hear that over and over again because everything we talk about is really building towards that. What I really wanna add color to is where BD adds to what we already have ongoing within the base business. Building on what you heard already from Scott and Philippe and Corinne, I'm gonna start with the current business and the platform we have as a foundation for where we plan to grow. As has been said already, Viatris is uniquely positioned as a global healthcare company, able to deliver value across the entire spectrum of medicines.
More importantly, as Corinne highlighted in her section, a key differentiator for us is not only having global reach, but our deep regional market expertise, right? With commercial, regulatory, medical professionals around the world who understand their markets and allow us to tailor unique strategies for assets in market that allow us to take advantage of unique opportunities at a local level. That allows us to capitalize on regional opportunities, both for our internal programs, as well when we think externally as a partner of choice for companies interested in working with us. As Philippe covered as well, well-established R&D capabilities that span across generics, value-added medicines, innovative medicines. The company's invested heavily in technologies, respiratory, patches, sterile injectables. Over several years, it has built a strong pipeline of high-impact programs.
That platform is also equally meaningful to other parties who are interested in development partnerships that don't have our size, scale, and depth. Combine that with, as Scott mentioned at the beginning, an infrastructure that supports a global supply and distribution network that supports 1 billion patients a year, and a well-established capability to build value from intellectual property. I think that's understated sometimes how valuable that is, because that's not only important in terms of the durability of our products and our programs, but it also helps us as we look to invest in innovative programs as we go forward. Take that all together.
We got a demonstrated ability to leverage all these capabilities at a global scale, but with deep regional market knowledge to create value across the entire product life cycle, provides a strong platform for sustainable growth. I'll reiterate again. Drive the base business, invest in an innovative portfolio, and modernize for sustainable growth. When we think then as to having that platform and how we can best leverage it to grow, where do we have capabilities, unique capabilities to be able to not only grow but be the right owner of assets and areas where we have a right to win? I think it's useful, as Scott mentioned at the beginning, to think of our portfolio across three broad product categories, generics, established brands, and innovative brands, as each has unique characteristics, market dynamics, and drivers for growth.
Viatris has a strong track record of unlocking value across each by applying differentiated capabilities at scale. For example, as a generics leader, we've delivered consistent performance, bringing essential medicines as well as novel complex generics to the market, while rapidly capturing value on launch through strong channel access and institutional and retail channels, as well as leveraging our global platform to give us the broadest reach possible. In established brands, Corinne highlighted, we have a global portfolio of iconic brands, well-established prescribing habits, but where we've been able to add value is that strong market knowledge that allows us to tailor strategies and stabilize and grow these brands on a region by region basis, something we can truly say we are probably one of the best at, based on what we've seen out there.
It positions us as a preferred partner for other pharmaceutical companies that are managing or under-leveraged mature assets or have upcoming loss of exclusivity, and they either don't have the resources or the focus to apply to those brands. That is something we're not only very good at, but have repeatedly been able to show performance with. When we look towards our innovative brands, we've had demonstrated success to date with value-enhancing clinical and commercial partnerships. On the clinical side, leveraging our clinical development capabilities for late-stage programs provide a level of depth, not only in core innovative markets, but imagine wanting to expand that around the world, the level of complexity market by market, country by country, to be able to take a product and turn it into a global product.
Just the clinical regulatory component of that is very complex and something Viatris has a history of being able to do. Then when those products get approved, the ability then to launch at scale, do it really well in your local market, but then also be able to expand that across other markets. That makes us a natural partner for many small innovative or biotech companies with limited commercial scale, but a strong pipeline. This combination of capabilities, credibility, and global scale, together with a highly agile operating philosophy, allows us to consistently enhance value across the entire core product portfolio. If we look forward then for the next five years, we've talked about the platform, we've talked about why we have a right to win in the areas that we're focusing. Let's talk about where we're planning on going.
We're gonna take a very disciplined approach to how we evolve this portfolio over time. I think we've given the long-term objective, drive the base, invest in innovative, and modernize for sustainable growth. How we go about doing that is really important. You've heard a lot from Corinne and Philippe and Scott as to how what we're doing organically within the business with our existing pipelines. I'm gonna add a little bit more as to how we're looking to augment that with business and corporate development. If you think about our generics portfolio, global scale, very strong diversified portfolio with a rich pipeline, our focus is maintaining the base, growing profitably over time while continuing to strengthen our position in higher margin, more durable, complex generics.
That'll be done both based on our internal program, but through partnership and targeted investment and BD. In established brands, we're gonna continue to find creative ways to extend the value and durability of our our iconic brands while expanding new relationships with global, brand partners and leveraging our regional capabilities and infrastructure through distribution and licensing partnerships with complementary products that allow us to enhance growth and profitability. In innovative brands, where we probably have the most potential to contribute to our long-term growth aspirations, the plan is to expand the portfolio with in-market branded products and durable businesses that we can scale profitably over time. Here, you can imagine the U.S. is gonna be a core market for us.
Our focus will be on high-growth specialty therapeutic areas that have long-term growth potential, and where Viatris' unique strengths and capabilities position us as a natural owner. With that, let's think about how we're going to go about it, and this is a question that gets asked a lot. If we're gonna think about how we achieve those long-term goals, a critical driver of the strategy is how we approach business and corporate development. I want to say business development in this company, and I'm very happy to say this, is not an add-on to our operating business. It is completely ingrained in what we do, and hopefully I'll describe a little bit of that here.
It's not me and my team out there chasing deals, throwing them over a wall to an organization that has to find a way to digest them. We have commercial leaders, we have R&D leaders around the world actively working to drive BD deals at any point in time over and above their base job, and that for me is an ideal position to be able to come into. The easy way to think about this is in two areas of focus. First, opportunities that directly complement our regional capabilities and therapeutic area strengths. Think of this region by region. These could span generics, established products, or innovative products depending on the region, but with an emphasis on delivering more high margin, durable growth products to the region. We're deliberately flexible in terms of how we approach these.
These could be licensing deals, strategic partnerships, or even small-scale M&A. Individually, they might not be large transactions, but they're generally immediately accretive to revenue and EBITDA, support regional growth, and offer clear operational leverage and synergies to take advantage of. This type of BD has been a long core strength of Viatris and continues to be foundational to our base business, and that's what I meant by Viatris has been doing this for a long time, and they continue to do this. When Scott says, "Drive the base business," this is something we know how to do well and will continue to do. Second, if we wanna think about evolving the global platform, enhancing the company's long-term growth profile, expanding the innovative brands portfolio is a key priority.
To grow in this segment, we're prioritizing in-market products and businesses that generate near-term cash flow, that are anchored in high-margin branded medicines and not reliant on long-dated pipeline risk. This often results in small to mid-size M&A that offers not only products to add to the portfolio, but potentially also necessary infrastructure and new capabilities to grow the organization. While these are more material transactions, our primary focus would be in the United States, but also in other important innovative markets such as Japan and China, where we have a very strong branded presence that we can leverage. In terms of scope, we're targeting specialist-driven TAs. As Corinne had mentioned, we are already present in a number of specialist TAs.
It could be one of those, or it could be another area where we see a lot of opportunity, where there's sufficient market depth to support follow-on BD opportunities. This is an important factor as well 'cause what we're talking about here is building a platform and not asset selection. We're not out there just chasing assets so that we can build a broad portfolio or diversified portfolio of innovative assets. The intent is to build a business with infrastructure that we can leverage and get synergies with follow-on transactions and get to critical mass and a sizable enough business that can contribute to the overall growth profile of the company. That's a scale that we'll build over time.
As Doretta will mention shortly, we maintain a very high bar for financial discipline and capital allocation, and our approach to business development strategy is no exception to that. Any deal we look at, whether a regional-based business development deal or a large M&A transaction, clear expectations on both strategic fit as well as financial returns. Taken together, our goal over the next five years is to deliver an incremental $1 billion-$1.5 billion in incremental revenue and $500 million in EBITDA to help evolve the company's core portfolio and deliver long-term durable growth for the future. With that, I'll turn it back over to Scott.
Thank you, Hemanth.
Of course.
On this slide at the top is sort of the goal, the business development goal that we have, that's embedded in our projection and our targets up to 2030 of $1 billion-$1.5 billion in revenue and $500 million for adjusted EBITDA from business development. I think highly doable with the capital that we have to deploy. Very excited to be able to do that. If you take a look at the regional partnering part of this, I think we did 59 regional partnering deals last year, and we'll continue to do them. We're gonna accelerate that opportunity. The strong foundation that we have from a commercial perspective allows us to do those deals.
We're gonna continue that we did one sort of innovative deal last year, and that was the Aculys transaction in Japan. Japan, a very important geography for us for a lot of reasons. Bringing in important innovative growth assets there was a priority for us, and we did that. Now we wanna be able to supplement what we do in the U.S. and others with this business development. You know, the targets, you know, where we go, the way the targets were built, you know, I think this business development component of those targets, given the amount of things that are out there, the capital that we have to deploy, and the strength of the organization globally, highly doable. You know, very excited about that. The next step, we're gonna pivot to the financial part of the presentation.
Doretta is gonna come up. She is obviously our Chief Financial Officer, as many of you know her. A very accomplished financial executive with deep healthcare experience, two decades of leadership advisory and capital markets expertise. Over the course of her career, she's advised transactions over a quarter trillion dollars, I see from the sheet here, which is pretty remarkable. Wow, $240 billion. Prior to joining Viatris, she was a managing director at Citi, and also Goldman Sachs before that. Without further ado, thank you, Doretta.
Thank you for that introduction, Scott. Good morning, and welcome again to everyone that's here in the room and for those that are listening in. I am Doretta Mistras, the CFO of Viatris. As I've been listening to the presentations, this morning, it's really struck me how much work this leadership team and this company have done over the past few years to navigate through challenges and also execute on our business plan. This includes delivering on 11 consecutive quarters of year-over-year operational revenue growth, excluding adjustments. Today, we have a clear and focused strategy, and this morning, my goal is to outline the financial framework that supports this strategy. Before I begin, it's worth briefly reflecting on the progress that we've made to position Viatris for this next phase.
We started with a clear purpose and a real opportunity, bringing together two large but complementary companies to create a global organization with significant scale and a strong financial profile. From the beginning, we've been focused on several priorities. Simplifying the organization and capturing efficiencies, stabilizing our base business while evolving our portfolio with a clear emphasis on moving up the value chain and launching value-added products, and deploying our cash thoughtfully to strengthen the balance sheet through significant debt paydown while also continuing to return capital to shareholders. Together, these actions have fundamentally reshaped Viatris. Today, we have a company with a strong balance sheet and a solid foundation for long-term performance.
As we look ahead, we believe Viatris is entering into the next phase of its evolution, one where the work of the past several years begins to translate into sustained revenue and earnings growth. The financial framework I'll walk through today is really about how we intend to translate that progress into long-term shareholder value. We think about this framework in four clear and connected areas. First, sustainable revenue growth. We expect to drive this through continued execution in our base business, supported by our value-added launches. Over time, we expect this to be complemented by our innovative pipeline assets, such as selatogrel and cenerimod. Second, accelerating earnings growth through operating leverage. This is supported by the benefits of our enterprise-wide strategic review, disciplined reinvestment into higher margin opportunities, and an improving mix as our portfolio continues to evolve. Third, durable cash flow generation.
This is a core strength of our business today and a critical enabler of our strategy going forward. Fourth, disciplined capital allocation. We expect to deploy our cash to return capital to shareholders while also maintaining the flexibility to pursue accretive business development, as Hemanth discussed earlier. These four pillars are not theoretical. They are already embedded in how we operate our business today. Together, they define the next chapter of Viatris, one where we translate our strategy into financial performance and where financial performance is translated into shareholder value. Let me start with revenue by walking through our long-term targets and the assumptions that underpin them. Before we get into the specific revenue drivers, it may be helpful just to take a step back and briefly explain how we think about our targets overall. We think about these in two parts.
First, our base case long-term target. This reflects the growth we expect from our diversified base business supported by our value-added product launches. Our combined long-term target. This includes additional potential drivers that could further accelerate that growth over time. Let's start with our base case from a revenue perspective. We expect this growth to be driven by three main drivers. Number 1, continued performance from our established brands and generics portfolio in certain markets, which include Greater China, Europe, and emerging markets. Second, a consistent cadence of new product revenue with a deliberate shift towards more complex generics to help offset just the inherent erosion in certain markets. The execution of our higher margin value-added new launches, including products such as fast-acting meloxicam and our low-dose weekly estrogen patch, which are currently awaiting regulatory approval.
Based on these drivers, we are very confident in our ability to generate 3%-4% revenue growth through 2030. Beyond that, the combined target includes the potential contributions that we believe can further accelerate that growth by two percentage points. These include potential contributions from selatogrel and cenerimod, which we believe could become meaningful revenue growth drivers for us by 2030 and beyond, and disciplined capital deployment through potential business development targeting accretive in-market assets. Together, this creates a durable and scalable growth profile anchored by a strong base business, differentiated value-added launches, and additional upside from our innovative pipeline and disciplined business development. Now, let me turn to how our base case revenue growth will be distributed through our regions.
Corinne talked a little bit about it at a high level, but I wanna take a bit of a double click and give some additional color. As you can see on this slide, we expect growth across every region through 2030, and this is just another proof point of the durability and diversity of our business. Let me start with North America. We have a strong and resilient base anchored in core and complex generics and supplemented by select brands. Expected launches, including our fast-acting meloxicam and our low-dose weekly estrogen patch, demonstrate our shift towards more complex and higher margin offerings, as well as a higher concentration of brands. Europe remains a scale market for us. We benefit from strong local capabilities, deep regulatory expertise, and leadership positions across both brands and generics.
With a strong base business, solid marketing positions, and a steady cadence of anticipated new launches, we view Europe as a steady mid-single-digit growth contributor. Emerging markets continues to be a consistent and reliable growth engine. Growth is expected to be driven by steady volume increases across our key brands and priority markets, supported by favorable demographics and expanding access to healthcare. JANZ is a region where we are investing meaningfully in Japanese assets, capabilities, and infrastructure. As you heard from Corinne, beginning this year, we expect to launch multiple innovative and value-added launches, which we expect will gradually reshape the portfolio and improve the growth trajectory over time. While the business remains in transition today, we see a clear path to positive inflection beginning in 2028. Finally, Greater China.
Here, we expect continued growth driven by a significant unmet medical need as well as a rapidly evolving healthcare market, particularly in the cardiovascular space. Our differentiated multi-channel go-to-market model, which includes retail, hospitals, and e-commerce, allows us to reach patients broadly and scale efficiently as the market continues to evolve. As demonstrated, our portfolio reflects a global business balanced across geographies with limited product concentration, improving mix, and multiple drivers for growth. This regional view also gives us confidence in our base case revenue outlook of 3%-4% through 2030. Now let me turn to our long-term earnings growth, where we expect adjusted EBITDA to grow faster than revenue. Similar to our revenue framework, we think about this in two components, our base case target of 4%-5% and then additional potential drivers that could accelerate that growth over time.
Starting with the base case shown on the left-hand side of this waterfall, there are several factors that support our growth target. First, incremental revenue growth expected from the base business flowing to EBITDA at stable gross margins. Also additionally from that, potential upcoming launches of our higher margin value-added assets that are expected to further improve that portfolio mix. Second, continued discipline on our expense base, including the expected cost savings from our enterprise-wide strategic review, which should create additional operating leverage. Looking beyond the base case, our combined targets include additional drivers that could accelerate growth. These include capital expected to be deployed towards business development, as well as potential contributions from selatogrel and cenerimod. While these pipeline assets could provide meaningful value for us over the longer term, we do expect limited adjusted EBITDA contribution just given launch investment.
Collectively, these opportunities have the potential to add up to 300 basis points to our adjusted EBITDA growth profile over time. As you saw in the previous slide, the net cost savings we expect from our enterprise-wide strategic review are a key driver of our operating leverage. We expect to deliver approximately $400 million of net cost savings evenly split between COGS and SG&A. Importantly, we expect SG&A to decline as a percentage of revenue as these savings are realized. In terms of timing, we expect to deliver approximately 60% of the savings by year two and the remaining 40% in 2028. To enable us to deliver on these commitments, we have established a transformation office responsible for ensuring strong accountability and oversight.
As you can see on this slide, we expect another key element of our framework is the strength of our ability to generate free cash. Over the past several years, we have maintained a stable cash conversion cycle, which has translated our earnings into meaningful free cash flow. We expect this trend to continue through 2030, continued to be supported by stable cash conversion, continued improvements in working capital, inventory optimization, and disciplined capital expenditures. Generating significant and durable cash flow is a critical enabler of our long-term strategy, which includes balanced capital deployment. Based on our base case targets and including our current liquidity, we expect to have more than $11 billion of capital available for deployment through 2030. That provides us with significant financial firepower and flexibility.
We expect our capital allocation approach to remain balanced between continuing to return capital to shareholders while also having the flexibility to pursue disciplined business development that further strengthens our growth profile. More specifically, we expect to maintain our dividend as a core component of capital return, which we believe represents a competitive differentiator versus our peers, and to continue to execute share repurchases with the focus on accelerating shareholder value. For business development, we expect this to continue to remain an important lever for incremental shareholder value. Our focus will be on accretive assets that can strengthen the durability of our growth profile, as well as regional opportunities where we can leverage our existing capabilities, infrastructure, and scale to drive attractive returns. Underlying this disciplined strategy is a strong balance sheet.
Since the formation of Viatris, we have made a clear commitment to deleveraging, and the results of our efforts can be seen on the following slide. As I mentioned earlier, we have delivered more than $10 billion in debt reduction since 2021, and today we operate with an investment-grade financial profile. Looking ahead, we will continue to actively manage our balance sheet and we intend to operate within our gross leverage target ratio of 2.8-3.2x. We believe this approach strikes the right balance between maintaining balance sheet strength while preserving the strategic flexibility to continue to invest and create shareholder value. With that, let me turn to my last slide. As we've talked about, the targets on the left reflect our base case, which includes meaningful growth across revenue, earnings, and free cash flow through 2030.
I would also just take a moment to note that our EPS base case target includes the benefits from future expected share repurchases. Importantly, we also see opportunities to further accelerate our growth profile over time, including the contributions from our pipeline, like selatogrel and cenerimod, as well as selective disciplined business development. Today, Viatris stands with a stronger foundation with durable cash flow and meaningful levers to drive additional growth. As you heard from our leadership team this morning, we have laid out a credible, focused, and achievable plan, one that positions us to deliver sustainable growth and value creation for patients and shareholders. With that, thank you, and I'll turn it back over to Scott.
Thank you, Doretta, and thank you to all the presenters for the presentations today. Let me just go talk a little bit about the investment case based on everything that you've heard. Then we're gonna go a couple more slides, and then we're gonna have a short break and go to Q&A. The case that we've been laying out, which I think Doretta just said, credible, focused, and achievable, which I think is exactly the right words for the business plan that we're putting together. Core to the investment thesis in the company is this idea that there is a credible path to sustainable top line and bottom line growth between now and 2030. That's the core of what we're doing. How do we get there?
Strong global platform, as we've talked about before. A growing base business, right? No longer a declining or melting ice cube, but a growing base business that we're shifting and evolving to include more durable, higher-margin generics, value-added medicines and established brands. A change or an evolution in a positive way for that segment of the business. Impactful near-term launches, and we've been through them here. I think there's something like 12 launches in the near term that we think can have impact on the company. We're focused on making sure those go well and launching those. High-value innovative pipeline, including blockbuster selatogrel and cenerimod. I would say, you know, based on our investment case between now and 2030, those aren't even a key component of it.
I think as Doretta showed, 1% revenue growth from selatogrel and cenerimod and 0% from an EBITDA perspective in 2030. Where those two molecules have positive have a tremendous impact on the organization is actually 2030 and beyond, where they show very, very significant growth. We're excited about that. Those are great assets. We're looking forward to the data, but those really impact the company in the later part of this 2030 period and certainly in 2030 and beyond. We've done a lot of work, and Andrew has been leading the transformation office and our efforts around our what we call enterprise-wide strategic review, which is really looking at the cost structure that we've got, enhancing resource allocation, taking a look at our skill sets, not only to save money, but also to reinvest.
A majority of that will drop to the bottom line, but it also provides us an opportunity to reinvest in value-added medicines, higher margin medicines, innovative medicines as we move forward. Finally, the cash generation gives us financial flexibility. $11+ billion between now and 2030 gives us that kind of strong free cash flow and balance sheet strength, and we can prioritize capital return, continue with the dividend, we can buy back as needed, but we can also build a portfolio of growth assets to supplement the strong base business that we have. That in you know in a few sentences is really what the investment case is. Again, the core to that is that path to sustainable, visible, longer-term top and bottom line growth.
You heard from the top level of the leadership team here today, but there is a broader leadership team that didn't present today here, including Paul, Andrew, who's head of the transformation office, Matt, who's just joined us a couple months ago as Chief Legal Officer, Peter, who's not here, but our Chief Supply Officer, and Laura who's here. I'd say this leadership team is a mix of people who have legacy people who have been here for a long time, new people with new skill sets, fresh approaches to things. I'm very pleased with the people that we've been able to attract into this leadership team.
They will all be here during the lunch except for Peter and it's a chance to mingle, talk, ask questions, get to know the leadership team. They'll all be there once we conclude the formal part of the presentation and get to lunch. Also, we've done significant board refreshment. I think six new independent directors added since 2022, sorry. We've added just in the last few months both Frank D'Amelio and David Simmons, both significant experience in the pharma industry to come join the team. We have joining us today our independent chair, Melina Higgins. She came, and she'll be coming to lunch as well, so if you have thoughts or questions or comments for her, she'll be here for that.
you know, we've significantly refreshed and enhanced the board, and very pleased where we are from a management and board perspective. Again, thank you very much for your attention. Hopefully, we made a great, strong case in terms of why to invest in the company. We're very, very proud of what's been accomplished, but I think we're more than being proud of what's been accomplished over the last couple years. We're very excited about what the next few years has in store. Our ability to really transform the company into a strong, growing company, over the next, between now and 2030 and build off that. We're very, very excited about the position we're in and what the next few years hold. Thank you very much for your attention.
I believe we're gonna have a 5-minute break and set up some chairs and things. I think there's refreshments outside, and then there'll be a Q&A period for 20-25 minutes after that. Thank you very much. Cheers.