Good day, and welcome to the Watsco Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to Watsco's 3rd quarter earnings call. This is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO and with me is A. J. Nahmad, President Paul Johnson, Executive Vice President and Barry Logan, Executive Vice President. Before we start our call, our cautionary statement.
This conference call has forward looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of these various laws. Ultimate results may differ materially from the forward looking statements. Watsco produced another record quarter with sales, net income and earnings per share all reaching record levels. In addition, cash flow for the 9 months was also a record and we expect cash flow to exceed net income for the full year. Our 2019 acquisitions, DASCO Supply and Pierce Phelps, both contributed to the quarter and produced sales and profit growth over last year.
We remain very active in the industry seeking great companies. We believe in investing in great companies providing their leaders with resources to grow their business. These resources include capital, technology, equity incentives and most important, encouraging the preservation of their own entrepreneurship culture. With the event of modern technology, we believe it is an opportune time for independent distributors to join the Watsco family since our resources can help them develop scale faster. In terms of results for the quarter, sales growth was driven by strength in residential HVAC equipment with more consistent demand trends across the Sunbelt markets.
20 eighteen's Q3 gross margin comparison proved difficult as last year's OEMs pricing actions did not reoccur in 2019. However, SG and A efficiencies were achieved during the quarter and that offset a good portion of the gross margin impact. We continue to drive adoption of a variety of customer focused technologies to better serve our contractor customers. That adoption has led to higher growth rates and lower attrition rates with customers who regularly use our technology. Over the long run, we are confident Watsco's innovations will transform the way business is done in our industry and will also influence and convince great companies to become a part of the Watsco family.
Moving on to our balance sheet, our financial position remains conservative and strong with a 9% debt to total capitalization ratio. This financial strength allows us to take advantage of almost any size investment opportunity. Our press release provides important details about our performance. I will not recite these details in my prepared remarks, but we'll be happy to provide more color during Q and A. Finally, we renew our standing invitation to visit us in Miami and learn more about our technology journey.
You will gain insight into our culture and many innovations that are underway. We hope you will come visit us and learn more. With that, A. J, Paul, Barry and I are happy to answer your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Jeff. Hey, good morning, guys. How are you? Thank you. So, yes, 6% residential at was pretty impressive and I know that some other folks were kind of complaining about the weather.
Can you maybe just talk about where you saw particular strength and where there's still maybe pockets of weakness regionally?
I don't know that we get into that sort of competitive detail, but I'll let Barry deal with the question.
Good morning, Jeff. Yes, without giving data by state or data by market, I could say it this way that really across our Sunbelt markets in particular, very consistent narrow bandwidth of growth consistent with what you see overall. So in our minds, it was nice to see that consistency. Up north there, we have some strength in the residential markets and Latin America also grew during the quarter. So nice and plain and simple in terms of overall growth.
Okay, great. And then, it looks like the carrying minority interest line was a little light versus my expectations. I know like Pierce and Home and we're coming into the mix. Just maybe speak to the gross margin pressure and how that might have gone through the carrier side? And maybe on this gross margin dynamic, you talked about just do you expect that to carry into 4Q?
Thanks.
Go ahead, Barry. Well, Jeff, I think most of the change in the quarter for the minority interest line is Homans. We purchased 20% of Homans at the end of last quarter and that's where the benefit of that 20% purchase flows is a reduction in minority interest expense year over year. As far as gross profit, looking in the Q4, there is there were some price actions as well in the Q4 a year ago. There will be a measure of irritation and then that should play out in the Q4.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Ryan Merkel of William Blair. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Ryan. Hey, good
morning, everyone. So first off, back to the 4% equipment growth number, which is pretty solid. Do you think you're taking market share? And then is the tech spending the big driver?
Well, who wants that one? Paul? Take the first half. Hey, Jay. What?
Go ahead, Paul.
I can take the first half, let you know as far as the numbers aren't out in the Q3 yet from HRI. So looking at the 1st 2 months of what came in the quarter, which would be the larger months, I think the I think we definitely did grow some market share during the quarter on the residential side. We were up, I think the market is going to be flat to down slightly when all the numbers are tabulated.
This is Ajay. As for technology, we it's hard to measure causation, but as far as correlation, what I can tell you is that the customers that are using technology and using it more regularly are growing out at a faster pace with us than customers that are not and their attrition is much lower than customers that are not using technology. So generally speaking, the customers that use it more often are stronger customers with us.
Got it. Okay. And then on operating margins, just stepping back, it's been flat for a few years now. I'm just wondering, is expanding operating margins a priority for the company? And what is it that you need to achieve that?
Is it just better sales growth?
Well, don't forget, we're very long term focused. And we believe that for the long term, we have to invest significantly in our technology. And even though it may hurt short term results, because we are spending more on technology, it's good for the long term. We have a big lead on technology. We want to increase it.
And I think that's a part of the SG and A. Although overall, we sustained the same percentage levels as we did last year. So I'm pleased about that. But don't be surprised if we find opportunities in terms of technology and take advantage of it because we're not really focused on the short term. Yes.
I'll say this too. The technology spending has been a big part of our business for the last 3 or 4 years, but this is not a short term exercise, right? This is a journey. We're a big company and a big industry with a mature market And the investments we're making today will play out over 10 to 20 year period probably. But that's why we can do that is because we're doing it from a position of strength, which is a nice place to invest
from. Yes. I would just
add that part of that, Ryan, in terms of the long term is, what will OEMs think about doing with distribution over periods of time as things are evolving this way? We're already an immense partner to many or most of them, and we think that will only improve and deepen over time. And then there are 1300 independent distributors that also are going to face some sort of music about technology. And part of this investment, we're already seeing some benefits and attracting some age old businesses that had never sold their business to anybody. And in terms of completing transactions and conversations going on, it's a very deep part of what we're doing.
So that's a good feeling and I think there'll be more to come.
Okay. Appreciate the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks.
Our next question comes from Steven Volkmann of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Steven. Good morning, guys. Maybe I'll just follow-up on that, if I may, because your revenue line was a little stronger than we were looking for, but so was your SG and A spending, I think. And I'm wondering relative to your plan, obviously, we didn't know that, but did you find some additional things that you decided would be good investments during the quarter and sort of spent a little more than you thought? Or was this in line with kind of your longer term plan?
You mean in terms of technology spending?
Yes.
Well, let's have the President answer that.
Yes. There's nothing that stands out as a big spike in technology spending this quarter.
Okay. Yes.
I'm just trying to think about how you sort of plan that out.
I think year to date, we have a number of over last year. And Barry, do you have that number?
Yes. For technology year over year, it's up $4,000,000 about $0.10 a share. And most of that, a good portion of that at least is the acquisition of Alert Labs, which is an IoT company that we acquired to help with our IoT strategy, also a long term investment. And that anniversaries this quarter, so that influence will not be as great going forward. So there that's not a spike, that's an explanation for why it went up this quarter.
And longer term, again, it's opportunistic. It's not a the plan is to keep driving adoption of what we've invested in for the last 4 or 5 years. How do we get more customers every day making our technology their way of life? And obviously, there is spending going on to develop more and more customers and more and more usage across our network. But big spending, big tickets is not something that comes along.
And if it does, we evaluate it and make sense of it and decide if we want to do it or not.
But the specific transaction you just mentioned, Barry, it's a development company. We knew going in that it would be losing money and that we'll continue to lose money, but we think that the outcome of that technology improvement in the long term will have a major impact.
Okay, great. Thank you. And then if I can just pivot a little bit, we've heard through some channel checks that Carrier, I don't know that they would want to say it this way, but maybe is a little more focused on their end markets and a little more willing to get involved in marketing and so forth. Are you seeing any kind of changes from them in terms of their partnership with you?
Well, first let me say, I hope what you've heard is true. We're all for that. No, we've met their senior leadership and they couldn't be more positive about their future in terms of being independently publicly traded. And of course, the word that applies to them now as it does to us is growth. And to get growth, you have to do the things you're talking about, invest in products, invest in distribution.
If all the signs are positive that this is a good thing for Carrier and therefore a good thing for Watsco.
Okay, great. I'll leave it there. Thank you, guys.
Our next question comes from Robert Barry of Buckingham Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Robert.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on a few things. When you report the SG and A same store as flat, does that include that $4,000,000 of IT
spend? Of course it does. Okay. IT technology spending is in our SG and A.
Okay. Yes. Just wanted to
And also the losses are included in the P and L too. I mean, it's not a profitable business and we know that going in. But yes, that's all part of the main financial statement.
Right. I mean, I guess, just don't mean to beat a dead horse, but it seemed like the tone at the beginning of the year was, listen, we haven't delivered much margin expansion in recent years. It's going to be more of a focus this year. There were some cost actions at the end of last year to kind of get you there and SG and A has been flat same store. Yet it seems like the responses to the earlier questions on op margin suggests that maybe the goal of op margin expansion is less of a priority now.
I just Well, we try to I'm curious how you'd characterize
it. Yes, this is opportunistic. We don't look at things the way you've outlined it. We look at what is the opportunity long term to keep growing the company and increase our competitive advantage. We're not numbers driven.
Why don't we do this because it's a budget or this and that the other. So this year, it was the one we just mentioned, Alert Labs headquartered in Canada, great products, not in the market yet or they're coming to the market and we believe strongly in them. Now we're supporting them and we will continue to do things like that. Whether SG and A goes up or goes down, that's a consequence of what we do, but we're not so focused on numbers as we are the opportunities that we
see. Got it. Got it. I did also want to just get a little more color on what drove the gross margin down. I mean, you mentioned the tough comp with the pricing.
How about
Yes. Let's say that Paul?
The deals or Yes. We had a as you
know, last year was unprecedented far as the number of price increases we had and obviously that drove up our gross profit percentage and that was a big part of it. You mentioned that gross profit drive is always in front of us as far as what we're trying to drive to increase the gross profit on our products. There is a market out there though and we are competitive in that market and we maintain our competitive nature in that market. And sales, we try to balance sales growth and gross profit at the same time. We want both to grow.
Got it. Just lastly, just to follow-up on the comment. It sounds like most of the markets we're tracking in that 3% same store growth rate. Does that include Florida? And just any update on what's happening there and what the outlook is for Florida?
No, we're not going to answer geographic questions. We don't want to assist our competitors. As you've heard earlier today, it's a mature market, very competitive, and we don't want to give anybody an idea where they can do better against us.
All right. I'll pass it on. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, Josh.
Hi. This is Brandy on for Josh. Good morning. So just wanted to look at inventory. It looks like inventory is elevated relative to the amount of sales that were added from the deals or just general growth.
Can you talk about core Wasco inventory and if it's running higher than usual this season? And any observations you have in the industry?
That's a great question. I think any of these could answer that. But I think Paul, do you want to take a shot at that? Since you do all the money. Yes, it's all
fault. Inventory is up month over month from September from August through September and what we've seen is inventory has been increasing. 1, we had price increases compared to prior year comparisons in the equipment that we do carry and in the parts and supplies that we carry. Secondly, there was a small buildup that probably you'll see reflected across the industry with gas furnaces where we had a cutoff in July for furnace energy ratings changes. And so we built a little bit of inventory for that, but nothing that exciting that won't be sold out in the second half of the year.
Okay. That's helpful. And then just wanted to follow-up on the deals. Is there any do you see any potential for synergies that can be extracted on the SG and A level?
Yes. We haven't ready answer to that because we give this a lot of thought. The reason we buy these great independent distributors is because they're very successful and we don't want to take a risk and we will avoid taking a risk trying to do anything to change their culture and their record of success. We don't look for synergies. That's up to them, these businesses that have done so well.
But we think we can grow them faster by what we said in the press release. We can capitalize them better. We can ask them to take more risk if they wish to. But basically, our culture and acquisitions is support the entrepreneurship that was there before we got there. And we're not going to mess around with trying to take some cost out because that's not what we do.
We're in for growth. What we want to do is continue to build a network. And I don't we don't want the risk of trying to tell them how to operate as an independent business. So they're independent in terms of what they do, but they're part of Watsco, utilizing the resources of Watsco. That's a heck of a good combination, which has helped us become the largest in the world in what we do.
And so synergy is not a word we use, growth is the word we use.
Okay. I understand. Thank you.
Our next question comes from David Manthey of Baird. Please go ahead.
Hi, David. Thank you. Good morning, Al. First off, if you could talk about the breakdown of price mix versus volume in both equipment and resi equipment numbers you gave us that 46?
Barry?
Good morning, Dave. In the residential market, more unit growth in price in terms of if I dissect the 6% and for the commercial business, which makes up the rest to get to the 4% overall, that's not really a price cost conversation to have, just slightly less growth in the U. S. On the commercial side. And I don't think price mix really had any consequence.
So on the residential side though, it was probably better than expected unit growth.
Okay. So couple of points there. And then Paul implied that there was also some price benefits in parts and supplies. I would guess that's fairly nominal?
If I did, I did not mean to do that. I did not say that, no.
Okay. Maybe I misunderstood that. Okay. Then on overall organic equipment unit volume, so if you take price out of the equation, you just sort of think about the selling season in the second and third quarter. It looks somewhat flat this year with the 2nd quarter down and the 3rd quarter up.
And I know you talked about the cycle and you didn't really want to talk about it. Have you given any thought to just broadly nationally the HVAC cycle and any impact it might be having on the overall industry?
Paul?
Yes. We've been looking at this. We've got a couple of things that play into it. Obviously, we still have the $80,000,000 to $90,000,000 installed base on the residential side, which is going to be replaced over time. That hasn't changed.
It's been increased by probably an extra 1,000,000, 1,500,000 units this year. Secondly, as far as looking at it in total, it's kind of hard to come up with an exact number, but you're talking roughly 45% to 50% of those units that are out there are still R22 and obviously we'll have replacement coming up sooner than later. So the general replacement cycle nationwide is still a good market to be in and a good place to be positioned for Watsco.
Right. Okay. And one more if I could. When you mentioned industry unit shipments, you thought they'd be down for the full quarter. I'm just wondering why you think that given the quarter to date shipment data that we've seen that implies it's up sort of 3% plus right now?
I think I said flat to that. Okay. And I just don't see where there is going to be a robust cycle of shipments in the month of September. That's all. And it's an estimate.
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Blake Hirschman of Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. First off, did the hurricanes during the quarter, did they impact activity in the near term at all and or create any incremental repair work on the back end looking forward?
Paul? Yes. I don't think it had a material impact on the quarter for us. No.
All right. And then back to the gross margins, did the acquisitions that you guys have done year to date, did they create a drag at all? Or was it really just due to the tough comp and the price increases from last year?
Again, Paul.
Barry?
No, the acquisition gross margin is at par with Watsco, so there is no influence on gross profit from that perspective. EBIT margin is where there's opportunity to improve, but long term. The change in gross profit, if you look at it a year ago, was up 50 basis points. Last year's Q3 gross profit margin was up 50 basis points, strictly due to passing on relatively material OEM price increases midyear, which almost never occurs.
And so
a year later, that's the comp we're talking about. And again, as things have played through and we work through it, it becomes a more normal and stable circumstance going forward. So this is really just a quarter for that type of occurrence last year in terms of standing out.
All right. That makes sense. Thanks. I'll leave it there.
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for any closing remarks.
Well, once again, thanks for your interest in our company. I'm glad you're involved. I really wish you would come down here and get a better handle on what we're doing with our major technology effort. Think about the winter, that's a good time to come down to Miami. So thanks again and we'll speak to you at the end of this current quarter.
Bye bye now.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.