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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 20, 2021

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Watsco Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, CEO. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. First, I hope everyone is safe and healthy given the virus that's going on. This is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO, and with me is A.J. Nahmad, President, our two Executive Vice Presidents, Paul Johnston and Barry Logan, and Rick Gomez, Vice President. Before we start, our normal cautionary statement, this conference call has forward-looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of these various laws. Ultimate results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Now, I am pleased to share that Watsco delivered another record quarter. New records were achieved in virtually every performance metric. Earnings per share jumped 31% to a record $3.62 per share on a 32% increase in net income.

Sales grew 16%, or nearly $250 million during the quarter, to a record $1.78 billion. Gross profit increased 29%, with gross margins expanding 280 basis points. Operating income increased $50 million or 32% to a record $207 million. Operating margins expanded 100 basis points to a record 11.6%. Cash flow for the quarter was a record $238 million. Today's results are all the more positive when considered against last year's record results and in light of the industry-wide supply challenges that are still going on. Our teams throughout all of Watsco are doing an extraordinary job taking care of customers, and that has made a big difference. I want to say thanks to all of you. We also ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet with virtually no debt and cash of $137 million.

This financial strength provides us the flexibility to invest in most any size opportunity. Our press release summarizes important fundamentals that are critical to understand as we continue to invest and build further scale in what is a very fragmented $50 billion North American market. An important fundamental is Watsco's geographic coverage and our large number of locations across many markets. The diversity of markets we serve reduces volatility and provides stability during a difficult operating environment such as the one we are witnessing. Also, our large and growing customer base is increasingly equipped with our state-of-the-art technology that helps our customers grow their business and purchase more from us. Another advantage now and in the future is our offerings of the broadest variety of products and brands in the industry. The depth and diversity of our product offerings should continue to serve us well.

We're optimistic about current market conditions. Let me say that again. Optimistic about current market conditions and recent trends. End market demand remains strong, and we see signs of improvement in our OEM's ability to help us fulfill that demand. Looking ahead, the industry will experience more change in the years to come as minimum SEER standards rise. That's normally done by the federal government, by the way, and refrigerant changes that take shape in the coming years. With changes come opportunities. We believe that our long-term focus, our scale, speed to market, relationship with OEMs, technology offerings, position us better than anyone to capitalize on these upcoming changes. We are living in unusual times but could not be more positive and excited about the future of the industry and our role in it. Now let's go on to our Q&A.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Nigel.

Operator

Mr. Coe, your line is open on our end.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Nigel, how about you? Well.

Operator

Okay, moving on. Our first question is coming from Tommy Moll with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Tommy.

Tommy Moll
Analyst, Stephens

Morning, thanks for taking my questions.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Sure.

Tommy Moll
Analyst, Stephens

You referenced increasing engagement with some of your OEM partners and an increased ability to help you meet the robust underlying demand. At this point in the year, I wonder if you've started to talk to some of the initiatives for 2022 planning.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yeah.

Tommy Moll
Analyst, Stephens

If so, what, if any, insight can you give us on those relationships?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

I like that question because all of us in the industry are fighting just to get enough product to continue to meet the demand. 2022, best one for that, I think, is Paul Johnston's.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. First of all, I'd like to say that we're not increasing our conversation with the OEMs. We have been continually communicating with our OEMs and them with us. The relationship there, all during the pandemic and even before the pandemic, we were working with them on product planning and delivery planning and all that. Right now, what we're looking at in 2022 is we're trying to straighten the inventories out a bit. What we ended up with was some of our inventories ended up to be a little bit lopsided on indoor versus outdoor type units. We're working with them, trying to balance that out so we can sell complete systems.

We've been working with them on what the transition plans, obviously, are going to be, given that next year is a big year when we're going to be transitioning in 2022 and 2023 to the new SEER levels. It's a full agenda that we have with our OEM partners as far as communicating and planning. With most of them, as you recognize, we're one of their largest customers, if not their largest customer. We're important to each other.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well said.

Tommy Moll
Analyst, Stephens

That's helpful. Yeah. Thank you, both. If I could, I wanted to pivot to the customer side of the business for you. How receptive have they been of late to price increases? I ask that because clearly there's input inflation on the OEM side. Presumably, in this environment, your customers are going to be pretty receptive to your passing that through. It would occur to me that if you've got product available, there's less concern around pricing, which is going to be pretty well passed through to the end user anyway. Any context you can give us on that dynamic?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, I think your thought process is a good one, but let's see if Paul can fill in the holes there.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

We always talk about the equipment. Those are the most recognized price increases that we have, and the dealer contractors have been accepting of them, especially those who are in the replacement business. Perhaps a little more resistance from people who are on the new construction side. They are also experiencing upticks in commodity pricing with copper going up above $4.70 here recently, a pound. We're seeing flex duct go up double-digit pretty much every three to six months. A lot of the other products that go into actually installing a unit are going up at the same time. I think we're all a little bit numb to it, including our contractors, and accepting it, and trying to pass it on as best we can given the timing of how many price increases we've had here in the last 12-18 months.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

It doesn't seem to be slowing demand. Our demand is strong.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No.

Tommy Moll
Analyst, Stephens

Appreciate the context. I'll turn it back.

Operator

The next question is from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Steve.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning, guys. Just following up on that last one, Al, are you guys seeing any change in your mix relative to the type of equipment customers are willing to pay for at this point?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, that's a very enlightening question because there is a chip shortage, so we see high efficiency demand there, but we're unable to fulfill it given the supply of that product. Paul, you want to fill in?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. That's very true. It takes more hours for an OEM to make a high efficiency, to make an 18 or 20 SEER product. The focus has been pretty much on the 16 SEER, 15 SEER, 14 SEER, 13 SEER product. A little bit of a shift there where we're seeing a bump in 16 SEER sales and obviously 14- 13 SEER sales, and a small decline in 18- 20 SEER. Having said that, 18-20 SEER has never been a major portion of the market, and obviously is something we would like to have as a major portion of the market. Hopefully with the new energy standards, we'll be able to expand the very high efficiency products as a greater percentage of our sales.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Yeah, just to add a thought to that, just so it's clear on the data, what the data says, the high efficiency mix increased again this quarter. It's almost 11 straight years of quarters where it increased. That ultra high efficiency is where the missing link is and did not contribute. Overall, high efficiency grew at a faster rate than base efficiency.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

It almost sounds like as or if, maybe I should say if the supply chain issues ultimately normalize and we have these kind of SEER changes happening in 2023, we may actually see a better mix shift going forward.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

I would agree with that. Absolutely.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

We're definitely going to see a better mix change because of the efficiency going up to 14 here in the north and 15 in the south.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

Which is mandated by the federal government, yeah.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. We're going to see that regardless. Our focus is, we really want to make sure that that ultra-high efficiency that Barry refers to grows at a faster rate and becomes a more material piece of the market.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

Understood. Okay, thanks. Then a quick follow-up. I think you mentioned in your prepared release that SG&A spending was a little bit elevated, and you expected that to normalize as we go forward. Obviously, gross margin was also very good. Do you also expect gross margin to normalize going forward, or do you think you can kind of hold the rate that we have?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, that's a very perceptive question. Looking into the future.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

Theoretically, that's my job.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Who wants to take that on, Barry or Paul?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Barry, that sounds like your question.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

All right. Well, here we go. Let's go to SG&A first, because that's easier to think about. Obviously, everything we've said. I just want to say this also, so it's on the table for the rest of the call. Sales volume in the second quarter was up 29% on a same-store basis, I think, something like that. This has been an extraordinary summer, if you look at things as a combined last six months. Let's not just talk in quarters. Let's look at our seasonal realities of what we've dealt with. Extraordinary demand, SG&A that needed to deal with a lot of stuff going on in terms of supply chain to make it work. A lot of austerity that came off last year's comparison that is now in this year's numbers. Just, again, as I said, drinking through a fire hose over the last six months.

SG&A, we wanted to highlight some things very specific to SG&A that are big buckets. The word normalize usually means goes down or declines. Let's put it this way. There's a lot of variable costs that increased. Those costs remain variable and will adjust themselves to whatever the sales volume is over the next 12 months. As Al suggested in the remarks, we're not necessarily seeing a slack in demand as we get out of season right now. In fact, we're seeing increased demand as we're getting out of season from, let's say, recent days. SG&A will normalize, but again, time will tell and the variable cost should adjust over time. Gross profit is a more interesting question. Obviously, I've said this for a career, and we've said this in our comments over many years, inflation is something that we pass through and pass on.

It adds to a gross profit equation and makes more money for us. There's no question of that. We're also doing immense work with technology to improve pricing and margin and to optimize pricing. That doesn't necessarily mean just getting higher margins. That means improving our pricing profile across customers, competitors, products, and so on. There's a benefit this year in that equation, which is only just the beginning of a pricing discussion. I think mix also obviously has a benefit, and you heard Paul's comments earlier about mix maybe looking forward. That's a big crystal ball to look into, to be honest. Some of the undercurrent of inflation and mix and technology and incentives and the way we pay salespeople and commission our sales force, all those things are pulling in that direction still.

Next year, I'll tell you more when we know more, but that's what I would tell you today.

Stephen Volkmann
Analyst, Jefferies

All right. Fair enough. Thank you, guys.

Operator

The next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jeff Hammond
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, guys.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Morning, Jeff.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Hey, John.

Jeff Hammond
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, just a follow-on the gross margin. It looks like, if I do the math right, that the gross margins on the acquisitions are higher than your blended average, and the SG&A seems higher on a blended basis. Is there anything, I know TEC, I think, is the biggest acquisition contributor, but maybe just speak to those dynamics, those impacts?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, I got to say, Barry will answer that, but this is a $6 billion a year business, and what you're talking about are small, relative to the overall in revenue. I can't imagine that that's driving the overall numbers that you perceive. Barry, go ahead.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Yeah, Jeff, I mean, again, as we're isolated to what we've acquired lately, yes, the margin, and yes, the cost of doing business is higher. That's unique and eccentric to TEC, it's part of their legacy and profile of how they go to market. They've had an exceptional last six months as part of Watsco. They've had an exceptional year coming into this year, very proud and happy that they're part of Watsco.

Jeff Hammond
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thanks for all the color on the 2021 performance. That was really helpful. Just sticking to the price dynamic, I think you called out 6% increase in average selling price for the year to date. I'm just wondering if that number overall is higher within the context of 3Q, and then if there's any noticeable difference in that 6% between equipment versus the non-equipment. Thanks.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. I'll take a first stab at it. Barry, do you want to take the second half? Is there a difference between equipment and non-equipment? Yes. Anything that's commodity based has an external profile where the pricing fluctuates on a daily, weekly basis. As I mentioned earlier, things like copper, refrigerant, steel, have definitely been on the incline and have gone up faster than, for the last 18 months, have gone up faster than equipment. Equipment has a more slower cadence to it because there has to be an announced period of time before we have a recognized price increase. Normally we get anywhere from 60 - 90-day lead time on the announcement before it's implemented, so it gives us an opportunity to adjust ourselves. Timing is not unique to the third quarter or to 2021 so far.

Operator

The next question is from David Manthey with Baird. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Hi, David. Good morning.

David Manthey
Analyst, Baird

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. Just definitionally, when you're talking about the 6% year-to-date price increase on residential HVAC, is that the typical price mix definition that you've given us historically?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yes, it is, Jeff. Yes it is, David.

David Manthey
Analyst, Baird

Okay, thank you. As far as the increased investment that you outlined, and thanks for doing that, adding that clarity, is some of that incumbent on the gross margin being elevated here? Barry, you noted that some of the variable expenses will obviously naturally flex down if things moderate a bit next year. If gross margin moderates, and sales moderate, is this a fluid plan? Do you plan on modifying that investment plan if things moderate a bit next year?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Barry, that question was to you.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Yeah. The answer is, of course. This is 673 location managers managing P&Ls. It's 30- 35 superpower presidents running markets. It's a data platform suggesting and telling and reminding and monitoring margins and cost and profitability every single minute of the day. It's incentive systems that gear toward EBIT growth and cash flow production. Yeah. Culturally, the intent and the obvious culture is profitability growth, responsible ways is what the mission is. It may be different in Texas than in Massachusetts next year. It may be different in California than it is in Chicago. This decentralization and data flow that goes on in markets is how we operate. When I say, "Of course," it's because all those dynamics get measured and carried out in different ways in different markets. Clearly, all these moving pieces that are going on are different everywhere.

Culturally, every Friday morning, we spend a few hours together, go through it all together and act and react accordingly. The answer is, of course, there'll be actions and reactions going on as things change.

David Manthey
Analyst, Baird

Yeah. Got it. Okay. Just quickly, as it relates to technology investments or other sort of corporate level decisions, I know there's not that many of those, but what about those? Those are obviously not controlled by the markets individually. Are those subject, too, or are those set in stone at this point?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yeah, let me deal with that. I agree that's not controlled the way you stated, but let's have AJ respond to that.

Aaron J. Nahmad
President, Watsco

Yeah. Well, as you saw in our release, our investments in technology continue to grow. That's because we are maturing things that are already in flight, and we're taking on new projects and programs, all with the intent of continually improving and modernizing everything we do. All focused around helping our customers do business with us and helping them grow their businesses. As we see more and more opportunity, we're going to continue to invest.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

In other words-

David Manthey
Analyst, Baird

Okay

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

We are dedicated to the long term. AJ said it, but we don't see any reason not to continue to invest regardless of what's going on in fluctuations from season to season.

David Manthey
Analyst, Baird

Yep, got it. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Jeff.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the questions. I was wondering if you could give us your early thoughts on behavior around the potential for pre-buy next year. I ask the question kind of in the spirit that folks are programmed for prices to move up. Is there actually much logic or much to be gained from distributors wanting to pre-buy into that efficiency change?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, right now, the reality is a pre-buy doesn't help anything. We can't get what we want. Now, we don't see an end to that yet. We don't even face those pre-buy decisions. What we need now is enough product to meet the demand that we seem to be having, at record levels, going into the fourth quarter.

Will we adjust our pre-buys? Of course, we would. We have a lot of data and a lot of software that tells us how to manage our investment and inventory. Right now, it's a scramble.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

You would be interested in pre-buying along maybe historical patterns if the product was available to do so?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No. I don't think that would be the case. We just want what we have on order. We want to bring it in. Exactly, Al's spot on. I don't see a pre-buy. We don't see a pre-buy coming at us. We want to make sure we get the inventory that we need to meet current demands as well as early part demand. I don't think anybody is looking at carrying a huge amount of inventory into 2022 because there's going to be different government regulations which are going to have different requirements for where and how you can sell it. I don't think it's going to be an issue this year or next.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

Yeah. I was sort of meaning pre-buying in 2022, not right now, but it sounds like the answer is probably the same regardless.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yep.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

Yeah. Sort of related to that, what percent of your sales now is above the minimum efficiency standards across the platform?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, they all have to be.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

100% is above minimum.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

at or above.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

Yeah, I'm saying, you got 80% or 90%, I would think, at, right? I guess the question is, what's the percent above?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Above the minimum. That's a good question. Do we have that data available, Paul?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. It's quite a bit higher than you think. Higher than 50% is actually above the minimum.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

Interesting. That is higher than I would've guessed. All right. Thanks for the color. I appreciate it.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

You bet. You've got a lot of other rules that apply to it, such as EPA on new home construction. In order to get your sticker from the EPA, you have to have a higher efficiency product. There's an awful lot of the 14 SEER product that actually goes as 15.

Jeff Sprague
Analyst, Vertical Research

I see. Interesting. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Sure.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Dankert with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Chris.

Chris Dankert
Analyst, Loop Capital

Hey. Morning, Al. Morning, everyone. I guess maybe this one's a little more targeted at AJ. You did highlight some new projects. I guess anything specifically you're ready to discuss over at the Skunk Works Watsco yet? Just if there's anything new to talk about there?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

You got about a week.

Aaron J. Nahmad
President, Watsco

Yeah, exactly. No, you know that these are all long-term things. As you know, we're a long-term company, so we don't need to highlight things that are just in early-stage development. I will tell you some of the earlier things that are getting a little bit more mature, which I don't know if we include in this quarter's release, but our OnCall Air, which is our tool to help our contractors sell to their customers, and Credit for Comfort, which is the companion tool to help them sell the financing. They're both continuing to grow, and very exciting. Customers that are using those tools, and really our technology in general, continue to be better customers for us, meaning they are stickier, their attrition rates are much lower, and their growth rates with us are much higher.

All the data shows that these technology investments are paying off and having a nice return.

Chris Dankert
Analyst, Loop Capital

Got it. You've given us some of the numbers in the past. I guess, are you guys willing to comment on kind of what e-commerce growth was in the third quarter here?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yeah, we can give you that, sure. Who's got that number? Barry or Rick? Anybody?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

15%-16% was the growth in e-commerce for the quarter.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Damn, Rick, I was trying to get you in, but Barry cut you off.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Oh, sorry.

Chris Dankert
Analyst, Loop Capital

Good deal. Well, thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Always the quiet one listening.

Operator

The next question is from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Ryan.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Hey. Morning, everyone. I think it was Al, maybe, you mentioned that supply chain was going to get better in the fourth quarter. Is that all of your equipment OEMs, or are certain OEMs doing better than others?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Let me say that it's not got better just yet. When I say that, I'm talking about all of them. We're hoping it will get better in the fourth quarter. As I said earlier, the demand is so high now that it's not easy for them to catch up. It's all of them, and there's not one that's better than the other. As you know, we're probably the biggest customer for all of them, that we represent their brands. No, I would still say it's still catch up. I don't see any solutions to supply chain yet, but we're optimistic.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Okay. I don't know if you mentioned this, but did you leave revenue on the table, you think, this quarter?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Oh, sure.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Because you just didn't have, Okay, probably hard to quantify, but the material or?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Oh, yeah.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Okay.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Did we take a shot at that, Paul? I don't remember.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Let's not speculate. I'd rather not speculate.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah, it's pure speculation. If you listen to the salesman, it's a lot higher than it is when you listen to the data. It's a way.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yeah.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Ryan, I very.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

The OEMs are running flat out, and they're doing the best they can, and I'm talking about all of them that we buy from. I think we have, besides the three major equipment OEMs, we have numerous other OEMs, and they're doing the best they can. Have they caught up? Not even close. Will we see some improvement as the quarter proceeds? I think so.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Okay, that's helpful. I'm noticing there's more private equity interest in HVAC distribution lately, and I'm just curious, are you seeing multiples rise in the space? Is there more competition for deals?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, that question answers itself. Sure. When private equity gets involved, there is more competition. Is it affecting how we think about our strategy? We will not chase pricing because we're in for the long term. I don't know how long they're going to be in it, in terms of valuations for businesses. There are a large number of distributors. What's our latest count, Barry, more or less?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

In terms of acquisition, 65.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

No, no. Available independent distributors, how many are there?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

1,300, yeah.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

1,300. There's room for lots of stuff for us.

Ryan Merkel
Analyst, William Blair

Okay. Helpful. Thanks, guys.

Operator

The next question is from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Hello, Steve.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning, guys.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

How's your dad doing?

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

How's my dad doing?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Yeah, he's a Watsco shareholder you told me.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, that's since 2004. I guess he's doing fine.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Good.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

On price. You guys booked a 12% ASP in the second quarter, 2% in the first quarter. I think you're saying it's up 6% year-to-date. Can you just give us Given the seasonality, I guess we could kind of do the math, but what was the third quarter ASP for U.S. Resi year-over-year?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Very consistent, Steve, with the overall 6%.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Why did that decel? Am I missing something on the comps? Most guys are thinking things continue to accelerate with all these price increases coming through. Any particular reason why that decelerated quarter-to-quarter?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

I'm not sure in season things change very much in terms of pricing in the course of the season. There were some late quarter price increases that flow in, I think September, that will flow into the fourth quarter. In season, Steve, there was not much variation. With the kind of volatility that went on, I'm not going to surmise much over the last 90 days, just given what was going on.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

I would add that we sense that there will be more price increases in the near future.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

We know.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. That would suggest that your U.S. Resi volume was down a little bit in the quarter, right?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No, it was up slightly.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

You mean in unit, but no, yeah.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah, unit volume.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

It was not down, no. It was up slightly, yeah.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah, most of our major Resi suppliers, the price increase that they had in the third quarter was September.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Got it.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

We didn't get impacted.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Do you think you guys took market share in the quarter? If you guys took market share, that means the industry was down in the quarter, right?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

You really don't know for the quarter until all the data comes out. I think we said this on the last call, the shipment data versus movement data has been so out of sorts here for about the last 12 months that I think it's thrown all of our models off. Would I like to say we gained market share? Well, August shipments as you know, were down, what, 2.2%? July was down, what, 5.6%? We weren't down, so we must have gained market share, but I think that's a hollow statement.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yep. For these price increases that are coming through, should we expect price to accelerate here in the fourth quarter? Can you get back to that kind of high single double digit level for the fourth quarter?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No idea.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

No.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

We really can't predict that.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Then one last one.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Until we see what the actual demand is in the fourth quarter, and we don't know what that's going to be.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Got it. Then one last one just on inventories. They were flat quarter to quarter. Hard to tell what would be volume and what would be some sort of inflation there. Usually, it's down a bit seasonally. I'm trying to reconcile that with kind of the supply constraints that are out there, because you guys look like you're pretty good on inventory. How do you feel your own inventory situation is?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, Barry gave you a clue on that in terms of our having inventory, particularly in equipment, where-

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yep

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

We only have part of the system, not all of the system. We are carrying unusually high numbers of this item, but we don't have the matching part yet of the unit. Barry, you want to elaborate on that?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Yeah, just do some math. Our version of inventory turns, which we can calculate using monthly averages. It's hard for you all to do that, the monthly average inventory turn as of September 30th was identical to the prior 12 months. All the investment level, if you will, is the same. The mix of that investment is what we're talking about that needs to improve and so on. Steve, there's not a great story there. There's some inflation, yes. There's some shortages, yes. There's a lot of product being moved around, as we mentioned in the press release, in terms of our logistics to handle customer needs. All that balances out and should help the inventory position as we go into next year.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Okay.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Still dependent on normalcy, which means normal lead times or a normal feeling in terms of order flow, and we're not there yet.

Steve Tusa
Analyst, JPMorgan

Right. Well, congrats on executing continually here in a pretty challenging environment. Thanks for the info.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Thank you.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Thank you.

Operator

Please excuse any mispronunciation. The next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Good morning. Well, at least I know who I am. Good morning, guys.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

You should make him spell it without looking at the thing.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It was good. I knew to take myself off mute as soon as you started on the pronunciation comment. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess maybe first question on some of the availability stuff. I know we've kind of trodden this path a lot already, but, even though it's not a critical market to Watsco, we are transitioning into furnace season. You guys do have some exposure there in a few regions.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Of course.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Does that availability look any different than the AC market? Obviously, the lines aren't the same, the components aren't fungible. Any improvement just by virtue of turning on furnaces this year?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yeah. Furnaces are an important part of Watsco. Let's put it that way, especially with the acquisitions that we've made over the last several years, with Peirce-Phelps and TEC and N&S Supply and DASCO, et cetera. Furnaces right now, what we're seeing there is kind of an inversion a little bit to the air conditioning. We need more of the, what we call a standard furnace right now. There seems to be some shortage on standard furnaces where we're getting some of the high-end furnaces. Just got off a call with one of our groups on furnaces and a manufacturer, and we're trying to supplement that and make sure we get them in. They may be a little bit later than normal. Normally, we're able to do a preseason with the contractors to pre-sell furnaces into the marketplace.

This year, it looks like there may be a little bit of a delay coming up with the preseason program.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Then just on the refrigerants transition, or I guess the phase out on R22. I think some of the other OEMs have described it as sort of de facto $1,000 off a system because it's cost avoidance on having to recharge a system that's had work done or had a leak. I guess, maybe a couple questions off that. What is sort of the pricing on R22 today, and how does that work in the homeowner's advantage? I feel like, if we would've had this conversation, I don't know, 7- 8 years ago, recycling of refrigerant was something that was a little bit more of a topical moment in time. Isn't that helping at all? Just maybe speak to how much of these upgrades or replacement is driven by the refrigerant piece and maybe some of the numbers behind that, if you wouldn't mind.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Well, the number of R22 units is decreasing obviously every year. My best estimate is it's probably 20%- 25% of what it was when we did the transition. There's fewer units out there that we have to service. The other side of R22 is that there were drop-in replacements from both DuPont as well as from Arkema or Chemours and Arkema, that we're able to work around any sort of higher prices or shortages in R22. We continue to see 22 sales as just a raw gas, on the residential side, at least, continue to move down.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. The actual homeowner economics haven't changed that much because of these drop-ins.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No, it really hasn't. If you think back to how many years it's been since we went with the R-410A across the board. A lot of those units have become replacement vehicles, and as we move forward obviously into the phase down of the refrigerants that we currently are using, the 410s and such, I think there'll be a slight acceleration on the remaining balance of those 22 units coming forward to be replaced.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

That's just a guess. That's a hope.

Josh Pokrzywinski
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I got it. Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question is from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Morning, Nigel.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Good morning.

Hi, Al. Sorry about earlier. Don't know what happened there.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Not a problem.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Not a problem at all.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thank you for your patience. Of course, all my questions have been answered at this point, so let's see what's remaining. Just wanted to clarify the point on pricing. You mentioned you get 60-90 days notice from the OEM on price increases. Does that allow you a chance to maybe get ahead of that and therefore there's a bit of a mismatch between price you realize from your customers versus what you pay out?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, that's interesting.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

It's 60-90 days. It's not 69 days.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay. 60 - 90 days. That's right, yeah.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Answer the question though, Paul. That's more important.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Yes, of course. We can move ahead of that.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay. Just wanted to clear that up. On the commercial refrigeration, when you go through your sales, let's not spend too much time here, but it was up 27%, so I'd be curious what drove that extraordinary strength.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

All yours, Paul.

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

Oh, okay. Generally what drove that is a lot of it has to do with restaurants supply. Ice machines, reach-in coolers, that type of thing was really driving that progress.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

rebound as open.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay. That makes total sense. Just a quick one, if I may, on the other HVAC products outgrew HVAC equipment. Because of the availability issues, was there a slight shift towards repair versus replace in the quarter because you just couldn't get product out?

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

I don't know. Has anybody studied that mix ?

Paul Johnston
EVP, Watsco

No, I have not. Barry?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

I can take a quick look. First, it is about, I said this for a long time, too, there's over 100 product lines and 600 vendors in that bucket. Anything from duct tape to sunglasses, to refrigerant, to copper tubing, and so on. Replacement parts is a component of that. Replacement parts does not account for the increase because it's a single-digit increase in parts during the quarter. It's everything else and across again 100 different product lines. A measure of inflation going on, as Paul suggested, in some of the, what I'll call the building materials in there, which would be flex duct, copper tubing, and other products. It's also been a mission of our business units to grow that part of our business at as much higher margin. That's part of the consequence of the higher margin across Watsco as well in the quarter.

There's not one story there, Nigel, and the story is not repair versus replace.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Okay. I didn't know you sold sunglasses, so that's something I've learned today. Thanks for that.

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Hey, they're very stylish, Nigel. You should look at it.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, safety first.

Nigel Coe
Analyst, Wolfe Research

I'll pop in and have a look.

Thanks, Paul.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

It's safety glasses, so safety first, right?

Barry Logan
EVP and Secretary, Watsco

Right.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for any closing remarks.

Albert Nahmad
Chairman and CEO, Watsco

Well, thanks again for your interest in our company. We hope that you'll join us for more of these calls and follow us as we progress scaling the company. Thanks again.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.