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Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference 2026

Mar 3, 2026

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yes.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Awesome. Thank you.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Let me dial back.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Sounds good. Okay. We are going to go ahead and kick off our first lunch keynote section here today. For those of you that don't know me, my name is Devin McDermott, and I head our North American energy research team here at Morgan Stanley. I am very happy to be joined by Jack Williams, Senior Vice President at ExxonMobil and one of the members of the management committee at the corporation as well. We are going to kick off with a few prepared remarks from Jack and then dive right into Q&A from there. Without any further cause, Jack, I'll turn it over to you.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Great. Thank you. Thank you, Devin. Appreciate it. Cautionary statement, I'll be making some forward-looking statements. Our strategy at ExxonMobil kinda starts out with this and equation that we've, you probably heard us talk about before, which is as the world's population grows and people are going into rising into the middle class, improving standards of life, there's a more of a need for energy and essential products, and we feel like we need to be increasing our production to meet those needs. At the same time, we need to be reducing emissions. That's kinda core to our strategy as a corporation. A key way we execute that strategy is through leveraging these competitive advantages that we have, that we built up over decades.

When talking about their scale, the integration of our businesses, technology, and then some deep functional capabilities around, like, project management, operations management, personnel and process safety, emissions reduction, those kinda key competencies, key capabilities that we have as a corporation, and all underpinned by our people and the significant time and effort we put into developing our workforce. These capabilities have kind of, you know, what we've been working on the last six, seven, eight years is making sure that our organization's structured to where we can really leverage these capabilities. We made some great strides in being able to do that. These competitive advantages, these capabilities have kind of unleashed lots of opportunities. We have this unmatched pipeline of opportunities that has been enabled by, and sometimes initiated by, these competitive advantages.

You know, like, for instance, the big project we just executed in Singapore, the Singapore Resid Upgrade Project, where it was leveraging two big proprietary ExxonMobil technology, so it's never been done before project. You know, like, the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, where we brought a technology toolkit that we enabled us to get more out of those resources, and therefore enabled deal space to allow that deal to happen. Like in Guyana, where we are leveraging our project management expertise to deliver more value from those resources for the Guyanese government people and for our shareholders. Like, new product lines, like a new graphite material that's gonna be put in battery anodes, lithium-ion battery anodes, that's gonna be able to deliver faster charging and longer life for the batteries.

Those capabilities are core to being able to open up opportunities. That's manifested in a plan that we've talked about going out to 2030, that generates a 13% CAGR earnings growth over that time period, $25 billion of earnings improvement, $35 billion of operating cash flow improvement. It's a plan. It's not an aspiration, it's not a target, it's a plan. That's on the back of continued growth in the Permian, continued growth in Guyana, in the upstream, in Product Solutions. It's continued growth in high-value products as we high-grade the yield of our product slates. It's structural cost reductions continuing on and gives us a really nice runway after 2030. We're looking beyond that as well. We see further runway beyond 2030.

Think about some LNG projects we're working on, progressing that have not been FID'd yet or are progressing along. Mozambique, Papua New Guinea. Think about these products, the graphite I just mentioned, Proxxima coming into the fold. Continuing to look at the things that will be providing that same level of earnings growth beyond 2030 as well. If you think about just between now and 2030, just, you know, real quick simple math here in terms of shareholder returns, the 13% earnings CAGR is that big bar that I just talked about, but that's in addition to, you know, pretty competitive annual dividend yield and then also the accretion via share buyback.

When you combine, you know, earnings growth, assuming we have a similar multiple and the dividend and share buybacks, you get with a pretty competitive overall total shareholder return over the coming years. That's the simple, quick ExxonMobil story.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

With that, we can turn on over to some Q&A.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Well, a lot that I wanna dive into there. Before we go into some of the specifics on the plan and the differentiating attributes of Exxon's portfolio, I just wanted to address upfront, given the situation in the Middle East at the moment, which I know is extremely fluid, could you just talk briefly about how Exxon is positioned to manage through these periods of volatility? Any operational or financial call-outs you wanna make, please feel free to add that in as well.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Sure. Well, it's a, as you said, very dynamic, very uncertain situation. Certainly, mourning those lost in this operation so far. A top priority concern for us is our people in the region. And we have folks in Saudi Arabia, in U.A.E., and in Qatar, and we're focused on their safety as our top priority. Coming into this, the crude markets were, and I'd say LNG markets as well, were very well supplied. There's a pretty large, good foundation to build off of. And clearly, this is a big disruption, and like others have, I'm sure, already said and everybody's already heard, it really comes down to how long the Strait of Hormuz is gonna be closed to tanker traffic.

For ExxonMobil, I mean, we, you know, we have some implications for operations in the region, but by and large, when you step back and look at our global footprint, you know, we have assets all over the world. We have upstream, downstream. We have a big trading operation that we operate a large long-term charter fleet, so we can move feed, and we can move products around the world to optimize and optimize around this situation. As you said, very fluid, a very dynamic, and we're optimizing around it like others are. I just think we have a few more tools to be able to optimize that.

You know, one observation I would make in terms of how things sit in the U.S. is clearly when you think about crude, it's a global market and we've priced accordingly and we'll bear the brunt of that as well. When you think about physical supply of crude and supply of products and supply of natural gas in the U.S., I mean, we are obviously very, very well-positioned because of the shale revolution that took place over the last decade, where we have a lot of natural gas production here in the U.S., a lot of crude production. It's positioned our refining and chemical industries very healthily too in terms of feed and energy costs.

You know, we have good physical access to what we need here, but the prices obviously are subject to the global market.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks. We'll need to monitor how it all unfolds. Let's dive in then to some of the differentiating attributes of Exxon portfolio, strategy, growth profile. It's notable that over the entirety of these last five years, this post-COVID recovery for the sector, Exxon has been an outperformer versus the broader industry and versus peers. Even this year with what's been kind of a beta rally in crude, Exxon has been one of the leaders in the sector, outperforming some of the higher oil core small cap E&Ps that I think is noteworthy and probably speaks to some of the differentiating attributes of your strategy and how that appeals to a broader investor universe. From your perspective, talk a little bit about some of the strengths of the Exxon portfolio, the strategy. What's delivered such good results? What's different than the peers are?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Devin. I mean, it really gets back to these competitive advantages that we talked about that we're leveraging. I do think, I've certainly been pleasantly surprised with the impact the organization changes we've made have really brought those advantages and allowed us to leverage those advantages more than we were able to before. The advantages are enduring and decades-long to build up when you think about building up, you know, technology expertise, project management expertise, so forth. Being able to fully leverage them was really unlocked by this organization structure where we have our businesses upstream Product Solutions and Low Carbon Solutions. Then we pulled out all these capabilities into these central organizations, technology, projects, operations, trading, supply chain, these big organizations that support all our businesses and allow us to really fully leverage that scale.

I really think that's really unlocked, I threw out a few examples in my opening remarks, and allowed us to have, you know, what I think is the bottom line of why we've outperformed is because we've been growing earnings and cash flow. We've been growing earnings and cash flow by continuing to invest in advantage opportunities. We haven't pulled back on investment. We've continued to lean in because we have really, really good opportunities, and I like to think those opportunities are largely because of what we bring, the advantages we bring, and we can extract more value from those discrete opportunities than our competitors can.

You know, I think the other thing I would point to, and again, it's related to this organization, is the structural cost reductions that we've had, $15 billion so far, and we've announced going up to $20 billion. The 2030 overall earnings growth that I mentioned earlier, I think there's some market credibility with that because we're doing a lot of the same things that we did over the last five years that have generated even higher than 13% CAGR on earnings growth. It's a lot of the same structural cost reductions and same projects, same areas where we think there's a lot more room to run.

As I said, I'd like to think that stuff we're talking about and that people see visibility to beyond 2030 is starting to impact some of how people think about terminal value for the corporation, and that we can continue that growth rate longer term. Of course, that's gonna have a impact on market value.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Right. Let, let's dive into what continues that growth rate and some of the pillars of this earnings uplift through 2030. It's notable that you increased earnings and increased the volume outlook for one of your key assets, the Permian in the U.S., without picking up capital spending, which speaks to efficiencies and technology. Can you just talk to some of the drivers of that increase in the Permian? You highlighted these stackable technologies, including advanced proppant alongside your corporate plan late last year. Give us some of those building blocks. What's changing? What's the technology evolution in the asset?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah. Well, I mean, that is a part of the story. We're going from, you know, 1.2 million bbl/ d- 2.5 million bbl/d in 2030. That's a lot of growth. We're not trying to just grow more volumes. We're trying to grow earnings and cash flow and focused on the quality of the earnings. That's where the technology has really helped us out. We're starting with an advantage position. You know, when you take the contiguous acreage position we had in the Delaware Basin, and we added in the Midland Basin with the Pioneer acquisition. You know, in both basins, we have a nice big core contiguous acreage position, which helps to set the foundation upon which to deploy these technologies.

It helps you have the ability to drill these longer laterals, to set up these Cube development that have and are continuing to add a lot of value in terms of our ultimate recovery and unit earnings. So that we start with that, and then you leverage in these technologies on top of that we're kind of in the midst of on the fly on deploying. Some have been deployed, some are yet to be deployed.

It's difficult to get good apples to apples, but we think we're getting, you know, you know, 20% uplift on the lightweight proppant, which was an interesting technology because it really did, you know, it points to this central technology organization and having upstream and downstream researchers sitting side by side and seeing the downstream folks understanding the proppant characteristics and how that could help in terms of a lightweight proppant that's gonna allow a bigger fracture and a larger effective wellbore to increase recovery. We're, you know, we deployed that in only, like, about 1/4 of the wells last year, about half the wells this year, and we're gonna continue to ramp that up. That's still kind of in deployment.

Really, I would say, we've talked about the synergies with Pioneer, and we had some reverse synergy as well, $4 billion a year of synergy capture, that certainly helps. Good acres positions to start with certainly helps, and then the technology is the big 800 lb gorilla that helps us to really drive that going forward. You know, we talked about the growth to 2030, we continue to see that growth beyond that as well. That is a big engine. The Permian's a big part of that story.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Right. Let's, let's stick with efficiencies, but a different bucket, cost reductions. Another big pillar in, in growth for y'all through 2030, is the cost reduction initiatives that you have in place. You've achieved $15 billion so far since 2019. $20 billion total targeted by 2030. Talk about where you see room from here for further cost reductions. What are some of the opportunities y'all are focused on delivering?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

They are important. I mean, when you think about growing the business, if you can grow the business, grow top line revenue without cost increases because you're offsetting the growth cost with re-efficiency reductions, that's a powerful formula for growing the business profitably. That's kinda what we've been doing the last several years. We've had these great growth opportunities, we've set ourselves up with tailwinds from these structural cost reductions that have helped essentially fund, if you will, the growth. That's again, largely come from this structure I talked about before, where you have these large organizations that are taking more of a focus on some of these areas than we were able to before.

The one I'll mention, because it reports into me and I know it a little better than some of the other ones is supply chain. We had supply chain set up in all our businesses before, but they were relatively siloed, and we weren't able to fully leverage the scale of the corporation. I think we had, you know, capable supply chain organizations before that were enabling us to get what we needed to manufacture our products and to get our products to market and so forth. When you pulled all that together and looked at the full corporation scope of supply chain, it allowed us to make investments in that to really step change, enhance our supply chain operations.

For instance, setting up twins, digital twins for all our marine fleet, and therefore we're getting, like, a 10% reduction in fuel usage. You know, being able to do a much better job of demand management, which is not something we've done as well a job in the upstream as we had done in, say, like, chemicals or lubricants. Setting up modeling for a lot of the logistics routes that we have and the warehouses we have to reduce the capital employed, working capital. You know, a lot of things like that just kind of but that when you're looking at across a large segment of the whole entire corporation add up to some significant impact.

That in of itself is looking to be, you know, $5 billion of reduction just in supply chain over the, over the time period. Lots and lots of opportunity. We saw that same thing. We're seeing that same thing in operations. We just set up the global operations organization. It's kind of the newest that we set up. When you think about maintenance operations across our entire fleet, turnaround that across our entire fleet, you know, there's more to come on that.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. What about the potential impacts of new technologies and AI specifically? Can you talk about how Exxon is focused on deploying that across your business, cost reductions or otherwise?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

How that might flow through? There's gonna be upside to the plan as you look out long term.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah, I think there is. I mean, I would say as we think about that 2030 plan, there's no material AI improvements built in. The extent that we can leverage AI and get benefits in a reasonably short term timeframe, that's clearly upside to our outlook. We're focused right now on. We know ultimately it's gonna help impact productivity. We're playing with that a bit, but I think there's more to go on that. The real focus we're making is on these step changes. Can we look at opportunities like seismic? You know, can you apply AI? We have the largest data set of anybody out there in terms of seismic data.

Can we deploy AI to see things that we missed before to have more of an objective lens in terms of what we're looking for in terms of seismic? Can we enhance our discovery rate? The other thing we're doing in terms of data, 'cause I mean, I'm not telling anybody any surprise here. I think data's gonna be really key obviously, in the whole AI space. We are going from We're in the process and pretty far along, you know, over halfway through this process of going from 10 ERPs that are highly customized, a lot of customized code and not all consistent across the corporation, to one instance, one SAP instance that is very that does not have much customization at all, kind of a clean core, if you will.

So doing that, we've been looking at all our processes across the corporation, making sure we're standard and structured and, where we can be kind of, you know, we can take a SAP, custom-- you know, right out of the box. Then, looking at all the data that goes along with that and having, you know, clean data sets across the corporation and bringing all that into one place. We're really setting ourselves up to have a really, really good, clean data structure and processes of enterprise-wide processes, you know, going forward to really leverage that opportunity.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Excellent. A lot unfolding there for sure. Let's shift over to one of your key growth assets or one of those points that you mentioned might be relevant, which is seismic and new technology there. Guyana is where I want to go next. You've had this very substantial 11 billion bbl of oil equivalent recoverable resource estimate out there for several years now. You think about emerging technology, the development opportunities from here, and also the fact that a large portion of the block has been in force majeure, and that may no longer be the case 12 months from now. How do you think about the opportunity set?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

What opportunities are you focused on capitalizing on as you monetize the asset going forward?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Well, look, that's a real pride point for us, the Guyana operation. As a matter of fact, I was just down there last week. Boy, it's just, that's one of the really fun things about this role is I get to go visit and see what our teams, our upstream project operations teams can do on the ground when you have a resource like that. It's incredibly impressive, what we've been able to, you know, with four FPSOs out there, over 900,000 bbl/d. Building an organization there, a lot of, you know, developing the Guyanese, interfacing with those folks. It's truly impressive. 11 billion bbl, 11 billion bbl of oil equivalent is a tremendous resource. It is a huge resource.

Back in 2018, that number was a little bit over 3 billion bbl. A lot of that was just success after success. As I mentioned earlier, our project management team have been able to extract even more value by getting these new FPSOs on under budget and faster than scheduled. It's just been a tremendous effort. Guyana will benefit from, you know, 4D seismic from day one, if you will. You know, we have base seismic over the whole thing. We're already shooting 4D. That will be a huge uplift in terms of the ability to optimize recovery across that asset. As you said, Devin, I mean, the block we have in Guyana is the size of Massachusetts. It's a large block.

A bit over 1/3 of it's been inaccessible because of border disputes. Hopefully, that will get cleared up, you know, within the next year or so and allow us to go in. It's prospective and allow us to go in and start gathering data and hopefully drilling some wells in that area of the block. You know, I do think there is upside going forward. I do think what we have is incredibly impressive, and Only half the boats are out there right now. We have four FPSOs producing. We have three more under construction right now and one more that's going through approval processes. A lot more growth in terms of actual earnings and cash flow, you know, to come.

We'll continue to work on if there's more than 11 billion bbl out there, we're gonna find it.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

All right. Good stuff. The border dispute and the force majeure is tied to Venezuela. Maybe we just address that quickly since it's been topical so far this year. Just talk about where Exxon stands on sending a team in to evaluate, as you all talked about in the past, and what would need to happen for Exxon to make investments in a country like that. How do you contrast return versus the other deep set of opportunities you have broadly across your portfolio?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

You know, we have an evaluation team that we've kind of put together. There's no OFAC license that would allow us to go in the country. We're working logistical and security arrangements right now. Within a few weeks, I'd say we're probably gonna have a team in country starting to look at, get boots on the ground. Obviously, we've been in Venezuela before. We've been expropriated twice. We know the assets. We know the resource pretty well. We had a very successful operation there. I recall it fondly. A really good operation before.

No doubt we can go in there and replicate that, and I would say even enhance that because you know, the heavy oil technologies we've continued to, through our, through our Canadian affiliate, through what we've been doing up there at Kearl and Cold Lake, we've continued to refine some of that heavy oil technology, and that would be applicable there as well in Venezuela. I think we can do even better than we were before in terms of technology toolkit that we can bring. You know, obviously, we would need to see some changes in terms of the physical regime there, and security arrangements to make sure that we would have something we can take comfort in terms of being able to have a long-term operation without getting kicked out.

I mean, we'll continue to look at that and work with the Venezuelan government to try to get the right terms in place. If we can get those terms in place and, you know, we would be interested in going back.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Makes a lot of sense. Let's stick on this theme of emerging opportunities and how that might translate to longer term growth. You mentioned one of the goals of the Exxon management team is to make sure you extend that growth runway beyond 2030. What are some of the opportunities that you all are focused on when you look at the next decade and what might facilitate or extend the attractive growth rate you all have delivered on in the past and into the future?

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah, good question. I think, like I said, I think a lot of the contours are coming into place. First thing I'll mention is we're working right now on some prospective LNG projects in Mozambique and in an expansion of our PNG LNG. Neither one of those would be ringing the cash register before 2030. Those would all be kind of 2030s projects. Where, as I mentioned before, Permian, we continue to see growth in the 2030s. Guyana, hopefully will continue to have at 2030, 2031 FPSO out there, so that will provide some growth.

In Product Solutions, you know, we have a large chemical franchise, large chemical business and a lot of growth and demand for our high-value products and that would be something we'd be growing in the 2030s for sure. Continuing to work on high-grading the yield at our integrated manufacturing facilities. Two areas where, you know, technology has really played a big role, these new products that we have. I mentioned the graphite that is basically a synthetic petroleum coke product that we have found a way to manipulate the molecules to generate the improved performance that I mentioned earlier. That looks really strong, and that would be largely be a 2030s type story.

May get a little bit in 2029, but mostly a 2030 story. You may have heard us talk about Proxxima, which is a new material that we'll be working on, and that's probably again a little bit before 2030, but most of the runway there is in the 2030s. That is a very versatile new material. Think about taking that into infrastructure. It's 75% lighter than steel and 2x as strong. Think about taking that into coatings, where it's corrosion resistant and some applications right now that would take three coats, we can do in one coat. When you think about, you know, marine vessels and recoating those and how, you know, how you could reduce a shipyard visit, think about tanks and so forth, getting us back in service.

A lot of upside on in that. It's gonna take a while to kind of get these into formulations and get that moving, but we're very excited about that product. It basically is both the graphite and Proxxima. Proxxima will ultimately be coming from a gasoline stream. A blending component in gasoline would be the feed into our Proxxima. We're taking, you know, basically converting gasoline into different high-value products. As I mentioned, graphite is a resid stream coming out of our refineries as well. Really optimistic on that as well. I think it just plays again to this technology theme, this central technology organization that has always been there.

We've always had tremendous technology capability, but focusing that, harnessing that, we've been able to really leverage and take it to the bottom line impact. Pretty excited about all that. All that's 2030 plus.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. I'm glad you mentioned Product Solutions and these new business opportunities. I personally think they're some of the more interesting and also underappreciated drivers of long-term growth for the Exxon portfolio and really differentiate you and your strategy versus the peer group. For Product Solutions specifically, it's also been a big year over the last 12 months of project starts for you all. Maybe just talk a little bit about the expected earnings contribution as everything ramps, specifically on some of the chemicals expansions you have come online, how that all fits in with the current macro picture for the chems market and asset base right now.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah, that's good. If you look at Product Solutions business, which is think about fuels, lubricants, and chemicals, you know, all together. We've talked about between now and 2030, that would be a $9 billion earnings improvement, and over that time period which is essentially kind of doubling earnings on this kind of mid-cycle basis. We're trying not to call the market on what we think the market's gonna do, but just take the average mid-cycle margins on those three. As you mentioned, you know, chemicals has been below that for the last year or two, and there's various projections on it staying low for, you know, several more years.

As you think about that margin across our energy products, our chemical products and specialty products, the fourth quarter 2025 total margin environment is about what we're expecting. About 2030. That 2030 number would be based on margins, they're consistent with what we had in aggregate in fourth quarter 2025. Energy products was above the average. Chemical products was below. Specialty products were somewhere about on par. Combined, it's kinda that same margin environment that we're bidding on. This is not, you know, our earnings projection is not counting on some big run-up in terms of margins. It's counting on, number one, the structural cost reductions we already talked about. Number two, the contribution from central organizations. I talked about supply chain earlier.

A lot of the benefit from supply chain is gonna manifest in Product Solutions, and some of that in operating expenses, but some of that in cost of goods sold, it'll accrue to margin and higher margin. We have the projects we brought on. You mentioned our chemical project we brought on in China. I mentioned the Singapore project that we had online. We had another big project in the U.K. at our Fawley refinery. We had a renewable diesel project online in Strathcona in Canada. All of those, we have not seen a full year of operation for those and a full year of production, so there's more coming with those. In the China asset, we still have not gotten that fully onto the performance products.

They're making some commodity products. We're in the process of getting the product slate that we want out of that facility. We're pretty optimistic once we get that up and running and on the right product slate that we'll be doing well there. A lot on the projects, and that's a big part of it, but we got a lot of other kinda oars in the water too.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

-on our solutions.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Excellent. Maybe we can spend a moment just on capital allocation priorities. Y'all have indicated a plan to buy back $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. Maybe two months ago, the debate would've been around lower oil prices. Now things are trending higher, at least for the time being. Just talk about your approach to shareholder distributions, especially buybacks, and how you think about buying back shares with Exxon stock close to all-time highs at the moment.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

It's a pretty easy question for us. I think we're pretty clear on our capital allocation. First and foremost, we're gonna invest in the business. It gets back to we have great opportunities. We have a deep pipeline of opportunities, and we're gonna invest in those opportunities. That has served us well. Again, it's those competitive advantages that it's a virtuous cycle. They're gonna generate more opportunities. We need to invest in those opportunities. It's gonna continue to grow cash flow. Second thing is we maintain a strong balance sheet because we want to continue to invest in the business throughout the cycle.

When you have, throughout the run-ups in prices or down in prices, we all know it's a pretty cyclical business, we want to steadily continue to invest in the business. To do that, we need that good, strong balance sheet. We wanna maintain that. We've done a really good job of that. We're 11%, net debt to capital right now, so we feel like we're in really good shape there. We wanna reward our shareholders. The first way we reward our shareholders is with the dividend, and we've grown our dividend for 43 consecutive years. We are very sensitive to the retailer shareholder base that really relies on that dividend and that dividend growth.

We continue to have conversations on the amount of dividend growth with the board and so forth, but we, you know, with a 43 year track record, you can assume that we're trying to maintain that strong record of growing dividends. The way we're thinking about, you know, buybacks is, you know, a couple of things is, one is staying to the extent we can, and it's the last, you know, leg on the stool, if you will, but as best we can, staying relatively ratable. We've, you know, we've, we talked about we were at $15 billion. We talked about $20 billion last year and this year.

If you stay relatively ratable there, then we're not trying to estimate where our stock price is gonna be, whether it's low or high. The other thing about that is it really does help with the... If you're increasing your dividend, then you're increasing the absolute dollars out the door. Having fewer shares outstanding does help with that, with that increase in dividend. We are the second-largest dividend payer in the S&P 500 right now, that is quite a bit of cash going out the door. That's kinda how we think about it. It all starts with investing in the business, maintaining the balance sheet, and then, and then rewarding our shareholders.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

It makes a lot of sense. In our last minute here, I'm gonna squeeze one more in for you. Having strong stock price and some of the technology advantages that you talked about before also could create opportunities for further consolidation. I was wondering, given the success of the Pioneer deal, how is Exxon looking at further M&A and the landscape more broadly? Please answer that not just upstream, but broadly across your portfolio.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity to squeeze that in. I may go a few seconds over. Look, we recognize.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Of course.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

As we're gonna be continuing to grow earnings and cash flow in the business. We have really good organic opportunities, but we wanna make sure we're looking at inorganic opportunities as well. To make that work, to make M&A work, you have to bring something to the, to the party. You have to bring something that opens up deal space, you know, beyond just G&A synergies. For the Pioneer deal, like I mentioned, the technology to have improved recovery in the Permian, and some of that being already deployed, some of that being us basically betting on ourselves, betting on our technology organization, opened up that opportunity.

I do think that is having technology, having something that others don't have in terms of not only just a set of opportunities that we have today, that we point to the 40 stack of technologies, but also an organization behind that that you know is continuing to innovate, coming up with other ways. It gives you the confidence to kinda step out on some of those things. I do think we're gonna continue to look. Obviously, you need a buyer and a seller. That's a, that's a, that's a space for us, not just in the upstream and the unconventional, but also across our portfolio. I mentioned a couple of these technologies that we came out with.

The Proxxima technology and also the graphite, there was three acquisitions in there that really kinda made those things work. We had a good bit of the technology equation. We needed a little bit more, and that full equation with the acquisitions kind of got all the puzzle pieces together. I would say it's across, you know, all our businesses, including, you know, Low Carbon and Product Solutions, but also across our technology. It's an important tool in the toolbox, and one that we're, you know, getting more and more, making sure we can, we can leverage.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

Great. We covered a lot of ground there. Really helpful update, great dialogue.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Thank you.

Devin McDermott
Managing Director and Head of North American Energy Research, Morgan Stanley

I appreciate the time, Jack. Thank you all for joining us here in the room and tuning in on the webcast. We will wrap it there.

Jack Williams
SVP, Exxon Mobil

Thank you.

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