Xylem Inc. (XYL)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 4, 2023

Operator

Please stand by. Your program is about to begin. If you need assistance during the conference today, please press * zero. Welcome to the Xylem First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at any time, please press * one on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing * two. Others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality. Lastly, if you should acquire operator assistance, please press * zero. I would now like to turn the call over to Andrea van der Berg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Andrea van der Berg
Vice President of Investor Relations, Xylem

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Xylem's first quarter 2023 earnings call. With me today are Chief Executive Officer, Patrick Decker, Chief Financial Officer, Sandy Rowland, and Chief Operating Officer, Matthew Pine. They will provide their perspectives on Xylem's first quarter 2023 results and discuss the second quarter and full year outlook. Following our prepared remarks, we will address questions related to the information covered on the call. I'll ask that you please keep to one question and a follow-up, and then return to the queue. As a reminder, this call and our webcast are accompanied by a slide presentation available in the Investors section of our website, www.xylem.com. A replay of today's call will be available until midnight, May 11th.

Please note the replay number, +1 800 925 9354 or +1 402 220 5384. Additionally, the call will be available for playback via the Investors section of our website under the heading Investor Events. Please turn to slide 2. We'll make some forward-looking statements on today's call, including references to future events or developments that we anticipate will or may occur in the future. These statements are subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as those factors described in Xylem's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC. Please note that the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements publicly to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, and actual events or results could differ materially from those anticipated. Please turn to slide 3.

We have provided you with a summary of our key performance metrics, including both GAAP and non-GAAP metrics. For purposes of today's call, all references will be on an organic and/or adjusted basis unless otherwise indicated. GAAP financials have been reconciled for you and are included in the appendix section of the presentation. Please turn to slide 4, and I will turn the call over to our CEO, Patrick Decker.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thanks, Andrea. Good morning, everyone. As we indicated in our press release this morning, the team delivered very strong operational performance in the first quarter, exceeding our expectations on our revenue, margin, and earnings per share. Revenue grew 17%, earnings per share was up 53%, we delivered significant EBITDA margin expansion driven by volume growth on modest supply chain improvements, productivity, and operating efficiency, as well as a healthy price-cost mix. We saw backlog growth of 8% alongside double-digit organic revenue growth in utilities, industrial, and commercial, growth across all regions, most notably the U.S., Western Europe, and key emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, and China. The team came into the year with good momentum, has capitalized on supply chain improvements and our competitive position to secure customer advantages and convert our backlog.

The results reflect resilient underlying demand as evidenced by sequential orders growth in each segment, our very healthy $3.7 billion backlog, and a book-to-bill ratio greater than one in each segment. Given the team's operating discipline, the continued demand for our solutions, and the intensifying long-term secular trends in water, we're confident about our momentum and growth outlook. Based on that, we're raising our full year organic revenue guidance to high single digits from mid single digits, and we're raising our EPS guide. Of course, we'll continue to monitor demand trends given some macro uncertainty in the broader economy, especially for the second half of the year. We remain confident in our position for the remainder of the year and beyond. Alongside this quarter's performance, we've also made great progress towards the combination of Xylem and Evoqua.

Integration planning is well advanced. All necessary approval processes are moving ahead as planned. We continue to expect the transaction to close by mid-year. We'll give more color on the Evoqua combination in a moment, as well as more detail on our outlook in markets and regions. First, let me now hand it over to Sandy to review the quarter's results.

Operator

Thanks, Patrick. Please turn to slide 5, I'll cover our first quarter results. As Patrick highlighted, the team built on our momentum coming into 2023 with another healthy quarter of growth and margin expansion. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, led by double-digit growth in the U.S. and Western Europe and high single-digit growth in emerging markets. In a moment, we'll look at detailed performance by segment, in short, each segment grew double digits and exceeded our expectations. Utilities, our largest end market, was up 23% with strength in the U.S. driven by continued chip supply improvements in M&CS, as well as price and robust OpEx demand in water infrastructure.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Industrial, which is approximately 35% of revenues, grew 13% with strong price realization and solid demand across all regions, particularly in Western Europe. Commercial, which is approximately 10% of our revenues, was up 16%, mainly due to continued backlog execution in the U.S. Residential, our smallest end market, with approximately 5% of revenues, was modestly down. Orders performance overall was better than expected and underlying demand remains resilient. M&CS was down 17% due to unusually high orders growth of 25% last year as a function of supply chain lead times. Water infrastructure orders were up 1% and AWS was down 1%. EBITDA margin was 16.3%, up 210 basis points from the prior year on higher volumes and favorable price cost dynamics.

Our EPS in the quarter was $0.72, up 53% year-over-year. Please turn to slide 6. I'll review the quarter's performance by segment in a bit more detail. M&CS revenue was up 32%, driven by better than expected recovery in chip supply. We saw double-digit growth, not only in metrology, but across our M&CS businesses, including test and measurement and pipeline assessment services. There was strong performance across all regions, led by U.S. growth of over 40%. As mentioned, M&CS orders were down in the quarter, but up sequentially. Demand for our AMI offerings remains healthy, and our $2.1 billion backlog in M&CS is up 8% versus the prior year. EBITDA margin for the segment was up 690 basis points versus the prior year on strong incrementals.

Robust volume conversion, price realization, and productivity drove the expansion, more than offsetting inflation and unfavorable mix. Now let's turn to slide 7 and I'll cover our water infrastructure business. Water infrastructure revenues were up 15% versus our guide of high single digits due to better price realization globally and stronger than expected demand in emerging markets. Growth exceeded our expectations across the portfolio, with revenues up double digits in all regions and end markets. Geographically, the U.S. was up 22%, with strong price realization on utilities OpEx demand and backlog execution. Western Europe grew 10% with robust demand in utilities and industrial. Emerging markets was also up low double digits, driven by strong OpEx demand in Latin America, Africa, and China. Orders in the quarter were up sequentially and up 1% year-over-year versus double-digit growth last year.

EBITDA margin for the segment was down 80 basis points, primarily due to unfavorable mix and strategic investments in digital and solution selling, partially offset by favorable price cost dynamics. Please turn to slide 8 for an overview of AWS. Applied Water revenues grew 10% on strong price realization and improved supply chain. Geographically, Western Europe was up 17% due to backlog execution and healthy industrial and commercial demand. The U.S. was up 10% driven by backlog execution and strong price realization, particularly in the commercial market. Emerging markets was down low single digits, primarily due to lapping double-digit growth last year in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. While orders were down 1% in the quarter, they were stronger than expected, and notably, book-to-bill was greater than 1.

Segment EBITDA margin was up 480 basis points in the quarter, driven by continued strong price realization and productivity, more than offsetting inflation. Now let's turn to slide 9 for an overview of cash flows and the company's financial position. Our financial position remains robust as we exit the quarter with over $800 million in cash and available liquidity of $1.8 billion. Net debt to EBITDA leverage is 1 time. Due to seasonality, free cash flow was negative in the quarter, but came in better than expected. While supply chain challenges are not yet behind us, we made significant progress on working capital, and we remain confident in our full year guidance of 100% conversion. Please turn to slide 10, and I'll hand it back to Patrick.

Thanks, Andi. It's still early in the year, we look forward with confidence. We have strong momentum coming out of the first quarter, thanks to the team's continued operating discipline and resilient market demand. We'll be even better positioned for growth as we combine Xylem's market-leading portfolio with Evoqua's capabilities and presence in very attractive industrial end markets. Global trends are continuing to drive increasing investment in addressing critical water challenges, reinforcing the foundation of our long-term strategy. While we've been ensuring our team remains focused on meeting customer needs, winning in the marketplace, and delivering on operational execution, we've also been preparing for our upcoming combination with Evoqua, which positions us even more favorably for the next phase of Xylem's growth.

As water risk rise in global importance, the combination of these two companies creates a transformative platform for solving customers and communities' most critical water challenges at scale. As we said in January, the deal economics prove out on cost synergies alone. More importantly, the combined company is positioned for very attractive growth, increasing recurring and resilient revenues, and significant margin expansion opportunities in addition to the foundational cost synergies. On top of this, the combination is supported by a robust financial position and an even stronger balance sheet, which preserves our optionality for the future. Since our January announcement of the transaction, an integration planning team comprising of senior staff from both companies has been working to set the company up for success. The integration is rooted in four simple principles. First, avoid distraction and deliver our 2023 plans.

Second, deliver on committed revenue and cost synergies. Third, retain, motivate, and develop key talent from each company. Lastly, bring the best of both cultures to the combined company. As we advance in the integration process, our confidence and excitement about the synergy potential of the combination continues to grow. I'm sure many of you have seen Evoqua's second quarter results announced just 2 days ago. Based on their earnings release, it's clear both Xylem and Evoqua have strong momentum, remaining focused on serving our customers and delivering on our respective plans for the year. In addition to a solid quarter and confident outlook for the year, we also continue to see evidence of the intensifying secular trends at the foundation of our strategy. In March, the United Nations held its first water conference in over 40 years.

It's one of many indicators of the global shift in attention to water and the focus on water's role in sustainable development. Xylem's delegation engaged with government leaders and development agencies from around the world, particularly on the role of technology and innovation in improving water security. Despite the different worlds the private sector, government, and NGOs often inhabit, sustainability is a powerful common language. For example, there was considerable discussion at the conference about water management and greenhouse gas emissions as water management drives roughly 10% of emissions globally. It's a particular focus in our work with customers, helping them reduce their emissions. As you'll see in our 2022 sustainability report, to be released this month, we've enabled customers to significantly reduce their CO2 footprint, achieving that specific Xylem 2025 sustainability goal well ahead of plan.

That's a meaningful step, but there's a long way to go in decarbonizing the water sector more broadly. Fortunately, we're in the privileged position of helping customers achieve their net zero carbon goals by deploying more efficient technologies that reduce emissions and their operating cost, ultimately making water more affordable for our communities. That is work that we're both purpose-driven and commercially motivated to do. Our sustainability report also details the progress we've made across the full suite of our 2025 sustainability goals, and I invite each and every one of you to give it your full attention when it's released in the coming days. Now with that, I'll turn it over to Matthew to provide a view on our end market outlook.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Thank you, Patrick. Before I dive into the end market outlook, I want to congratulate the team on a great quarter. We exceeded our expectations across the board and made great progress on productivity initiatives, leading to healthy margin expansion. Overall, we are well-positioned to continue building on this momentum through the rest of the year. Looking ahead, we have taken a balanced approach in our outlook, given the dynamics of the macroeconomic environment. Our backlogs are strong and underlying demand in our largest end markets continues to be resilient, providing confidence to raise our 2023 guide. That said, we are closely monitoring leading indicators in some of our more cyclical businesses, particularly in developed markets. We expect continued steady demand in emerging markets and are optimistic about a gradual recovery in China through the rest of the year.

Utilities, which makes up the largest end market, continues to be healthy. We now expect growth in low teens in 2023, up from high single digits. On the wastewater side, we expect high single-digit growth, up from mid-single digit growth. We expect OpEx strength in developed markets as well as continued CapEx spend in emerging markets will result in steady global demand. On the clean water side, we anticipate growth of high teens, up from low teens. This increase in our outlook is driven by continued robust demand for our AMI solutions and earlier improvements in chip supply through 2023 as seen in quarter one, allowing for backlog execution. We continue to foresee healthy momentum in our test and measurement and our pipeline assessment service businesses due to increasing focus on infrastructure and climate challenges.

We are also seeing early benefits from the unification of our commercial team in the Americas. The team has made great progress in solution selling to our utility customers, bringing the best of Xylem's offerings to bear, solving our customers' highest value challenges. Looking at the industrial end market, we expect to grow mid-single digits on steady demand for solutions globally. While U.S. industrial production estimates point to potential softening in the back half of 2023, we expect that to be offset by growth in emerging markets and we're supported by our backlog. Our dewatering business continues to see strong demand from mining in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, and is benefiting from strategic investments we've made in our fleet. Moving on to commercial, given Q1 outperformance, we now expect mid-single digit growth up from low single digits.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

We anticipate continued growth driven by solid replacement business and backlog execution, partially offset by new construction. We would expect the moderation to emerge in the second half results and are monitoring the Architecture Billings Index and other indicators closely. In residential, our smallest end market, we continue to expect a low single-digit decline due to normalizing demand in the U.S., partially offset by continued resilience in emerging markets. Overall, we feel confident about the resiliency of demand given our backlog and healthy orders momentum. Now I'll turn it over to Sandy to walk you through our updated guidance.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Thank you, Matthew. Turning to slide 12. As a reminder, our guidance is on a standalone basis and excludes the combination with Evoqua. As Patrick mentioned, we are increasing our full year guidance for organic revenue growth and adjusted EPS. We are raising our full year organic revenue growth to 8%-9%, up from 4%-6%. This increase is driven primarily by stronger price realization and earlier than expected supply chain improvements in the year. In addition, we are lifting our full year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.15-$3.35, up from $3.00-$3.25. The revised guidance breaks down by segment as follows. High teens growth in M&CS versus previous guidance of low teens.

High single-digit growth in water infrastructure up from mid-single-digit growth, with solid growth in both wastewater utilities and industrial. Mid-single-digit growth in applied water, up from low single digits, with growth in industrial and commercial, partially offset by residential. For 2023, our EBITDA guidance is 17.5%-18%. As mentioned, this yields an adjusted EPS range of $3.15-$3.35. We still expect free cash flow conversion to be 100% of net income. We've also provided you with a number of other full-year assumptions on the slide to supplement your model. Now drilling down on the second quarter, we anticipate total company revenues will be in the range of 10%-11% organic growth.

By segment, we expect high teens growth for M&CS and high single-digit growth in both water infrastructure and applied water. We expect second quarter EBITDA margin to be in the range of 17.5%-18%, which represents over 100 basis points of improvement versus the prior year, driven by higher volumes and continued price realization and productivity gains. With that, turn to slide 13, and I'll turn the call back over to Patrick for closing comments.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thanks, Sandy. I'm very proud of the team's performance, demonstrating continuing dedication to serving our customers and communities and delivering very strong results. Looking ahead, we're focused on continuing that momentum while also executing a successful integration of Evoqua once the deal closes. We look forward to updating you on that combination in our next earnings call when I anticipate we will be presenting the performance, outlook, and opportunity of our combined company. Operator, I'll turn the call back over to you for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press * one on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing * two. Again, we ask that you please pick up your handset when posing your question to provide optimal sound quality. Thank you. Our first question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Deane Dray
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Hey, good morning, Dean.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Good morning.

Deane Dray
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hey, these are impressive numbers on organic revenue growth and the margins, especially total company margins. That takes me to the first question on water infrastructure, and I know this is seasonally the lowest margin for that segment. You called out three factors: mix, timing of projects, and some investments like in digital. Just hoping if you could size these, and maybe give some additional color. Thanks.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Dean, you know, great question. I think you know, you highlighted some really important points. You know, first of all, Q1 is typically our lowest margin quarter for our water infrastructure business. You know, on an EBITDA basis, we were down about 80 basis points this quarter. You know, it's really essentially all in gross profit, and it really comes down to two or three items. One, you know, just product mix, a little bit of geographic mix. We had some larger scale projects this quarter that typically carry, you know, modestly lower margins. Then, you know, we have been continuing to make some investments in this segment. It talks to the, you know, our optimism about its long-term prospects. Those investments have been, you know, really focused on increasing our digital selling and solution selling capabilities.

You know, we're seeing proof of that investment come through in our orders momentum and growth. You know, I think, Dean, when you look forward to the rest of the year, you know, we think that water infrastructure margins are going to rebound in Q2 and the rest of the year, in line with our typical, you know, typical seasonality.

Deane Dray
Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

All right. That was exactly what I was looking for.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Yeah. Dean, hey, Dean, I would just offer up, sorry, this is Patrick, that those, you know, that margin improvement is also supported by what we have in backlog. These orders that are being won based on these investments support that continued improvement in margins.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

That's great. That kind of takes me to the next question, on M&CS and the chip supply. Patrick, I remember when the spur surfaced, and it was everywhere, that everyone was getting these chip supply shortages, and it just accentuated the point that Xylem is, you know, from a smart water standpoint, so dependent on semiconductors. At the time when it was most uncertain, you all said expectations for a gradual improvement in the supply, and that's exactly how it's been playing out. Where you stand today, how does the backlog look in terms of, like, past due of M&CS chips? Is just, you know, should we expect this consistent kind of gradual improvement for the balance of the year? Thanks.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Sure. Thanks for the question, Dean. I'll hand it over to Matthew to give more color on it.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Good morning, Dean. Yeah, we had for sure better than expected results in Q1 in metrology. You know, the chip supply continues to be lumpy, but it is continuing to move at a steady incremental pace, to your point. You know, our backlog continues to be 30% past due. That was last quarter as well. Because of the continued orders momentum that we've seen in this business, up 8%, in metrology in M&CS. We're gonna continue to expect modest improvement, and we're still managing the variation in supply. The one thing I would point out, as a lot of you probably remember, is the book-to-bill for automotive and industrial chips is still +1.

We're still kind of working through this problem, where on the consumer side you're seeing a little bit more relief. We're just gonna be steady as it goes over the coming quarters, and we'll see those modest improvements. With those modest improvements, we've taken up our guide from low teens to high teens for 2023 for M&CS.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

I would just offer that as well that, one, you know, we've continued to hold on to all of our deals and backlog. There have been no cancellations, and so that's continued to be a good sign as we, you know, we deliver as we say we're gonna deliver. Then certainly two, as Matthew pointed out, continue to see really strong demand and market wins, despite the chip supply challenges. I think the confidence has grown over the course of the past year and more.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Great. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Nathan Jones
Managing Director, Stifel

Good morning, everyone.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Hey, good morning, Nate.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Good morning, Nate.

Nathan Jones
Managing Director, Stifel

I'm gonna follow up on the, on the M&CS guidance, chip supply, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, the guidance going from mid-teens to high teens pretty much just considers the outperformance in the first quarter. If you muddle it out, the dollars of revenue each quarter doesn't really change for the remaining three quarters. I know you guys have talked about better chip supply. You have product redesigns to use more available chips that come in the back half. Is there still a little bit of maybe overly conservative approach to the guidance for M&CS just given the improvements that you're seeing, plus these product redesigns that start coming out, I think, probably in the third quarter?

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Yeah, Nate, let me give that a shot. You know, first of all, we're really pleased with what we saw from a delivery perspective in Q1. You know, got out of the gate with a fast start this year. You know, when we look at the next quarter for M&CS, we actually think it looks very similar to what we experienced in Q1. Good, strong business in metrology, but also the other businesses that we have in analytics and assessment services. When it all comes together, Q1 and Q2 look pretty similar. When we look at the back half of the year, you know, we've got embedded in our guide a modest ramp up in the back half. You know, we've got to continue to monitor the chip supply situation.

It is not perfect operationally yet.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Yeah. I would just add, we're just look, we're trying to be prudent with the guide. To Sandy's point, in the back half, we still don't have good visibility. We do, you know, it's, I call it the daily miracle. We're managing, you know, decommits and pushouts and come ins of chips and, you know, we're just trying to manage the guide and be prudent in the second half.

Nathan Jones
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay, that makes sense. Maybe, just following up on the 30% of backlog that's past due, I anticipate that at some point here, the chip supply is going to get significantly better, and you could probably manufacture more than your customers are gonna be ready to take with the backlog likely bottleneck likely becoming utility labor to go and install these things. How do you think about the progression of that 30% past due, working that down to, you know, whatever a normal level of past due is and actually burning some of this backlog down 2024, 2025 as we go along?

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Yeah. We'll progressively work the backlog down as the chips, you know, begin to be more fluid. You know, the bottleneck is not gonna be. Well, the bottleneck now is chip supply, but the next bottleneck will not be our capacity, to your point. It's gonna be really working with our customers to make sure they have the deployment capacity. That's something we're planning on right now and getting ahead and looking out and projecting with our customers through really the end of 2024 and lining up that capacity for deployment.

We're, you know, we're lockstep with our customers to make sure that we've got that set up as the chip supply continues to improve, that the deployment capacity does not become a throttle and a bottleneck as we move through the end of the, you know, through 2023 and through 2024.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

I'm gonna offer up, Nate, as well that-

Nathan Jones
Managing Director, Stifel

Okay. Thanks so much.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

As you probably know, Nate, the nature of these deployments at a utility level, you know, these are years in the development and the approval process. The main concern on the part of utilities is that once they begin to get chip supply, that there's a steady installation progress for them so that there's no concerns by regulators as to whether or not an approved deal is actually ever going to happen. As long as they're showing steady improvement and deployment, the, you know, the labor issue will not be a major bottleneck in terms of a major slowdown. There'll be a good steady progression.

Nathan Jones
Managing Director, Stifel

Great. I'll pass it on. Thanks for taking my questions.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thank you.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Thanks, Nate.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Joe Giordano
Managing Director, TD Cowen

Hey, good morning, guys.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Morning, Joe.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

Hey, Joe.

Joe Giordano
Managing Director, TD Cowen

I guess going through this earnings season, we've heard a lot of companies start talking about changing in customer buying patterns a little bit, and maybe April trends being worse than what the average of the first quarter was. Just curious if you have anything to say there. I mean, I'm probably talking more on, like, the industrial side than on the utility side there.

Sandy Rowland
Chief Financial Officer, Xylem

I mean, Joe, we saw nothing surprising coming out of our April results. You know, obviously we're in the process of closing the books there for that month, but nothing has jumped out to be, you know, out of the ordinary or a change from what we saw in Q1.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Joe, I think it's also safe to say that, you know, one of the things that we track not only in industrial but across the entire portfolio is our bidding pipeline. That bidding pipeline continues to be very healthy and growing consistently. Another good indicator, Matthew, you can probably talk to our channel partners and what you're hearing there in terms of the health of their inventory levels.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

From a channel inventory point of view, we do have really good visibility 'cause we have strong relationship with our channel partners. Overall, I'd say levels are healthy, and they're not sitting on excess inventory. On the industrial front, there's not a lot of inventory. It's configured to order, engineered to order. We have seen good demand in that area, specifically in emerging markets, in the first quarter was really strong and resilient in industrial. Utilities, specifically in wastewater OpEx, that's been really healthy and been really resilient through the past 18 months given our vertical integration in that segment.

On the commercial front, we're still not back to 2019 levels given the continued supply challenges and constraints that we feel in the commercial part of our business. Lastly, which is, resi is the smallest portion of our business. It's well stocked, and we're seeing a little bit of moderation there.

Joe Giordano
Managing Director, TD Cowen

Fair enough. Patrick, on Evoqua, I know you can't say a whole lot, but is there anything you can any updates at all on timing or, like, what's been what are you currently waiting on?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Sure.

Joe Giordano
Managing Director, TD Cowen

What can you say about what you've done internally, like, to kind of prepare for this coming in? I know you're not just sitting around waiting for approval. What are... Can you maybe give us a little insight?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Sure.

Joe Giordano
Managing Director, TD Cowen

How you're getting the organization prepped for this?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Sure. Yeah. No, thanks, Joe. Just on the transaction itself, as I said in our, in our comments, I mean, really pleased with the progress. Proud of the team. I mean, there's a ton of work that goes into this from both companies, while, you know, people doing their day jobs. A lot of great progress there. You know, there were several countries, obviously beyond the U.S., that required approval. We've achieved clearance in all of those countries. The only remaining country is China. In China, our filing has been accepted for what we call the short-form review, which typically takes no more than 30 days. We're moving well through that and don't expect any issues there.

We've got our shareholder vote coming up on May the 11th, both set of shareholders, so we will get through that next week. Again, for all those reasons, we continue to expect to close this by mid-year. That's on the transaction closure. You're right, you know, we've got a dedicated integration planning team. I've spent a considerable amount of time with Ron Keating, their CEO, and his leadership team. Matthew has spent considerable amount of time with them as well. We've had many integration planning meetings. On the cost side, you know, clear line of sight to what we committed to before, that being $140 million, you know, in 3 years. Very simple, straightforward areas.

I didn't say simple as easy, but they're simple. We're not going after rabbits here. We're going after big items, and deliver those as quickly as possible. Again, what we've always been most excited about is the growth synergy. You know, looking there, you're right there, we are somewhat limited on how much detail we can get into until we have final regulatory approvals from a competitive standpoint. As the teams have worked together, we're even more excited about the top-line growth synergies that are out there.

As we've mentioned before, you know, most excited about the opportunity to, you know, deepen our penetration within utilities of the combined portfolio, to expand both their integrated services and solutions business on the industrial side internationally, but also a number of their treatment products that we can take to our channels internationally. We both have efforts going on around digital services and solutions and opportunities to leverage our combined platform there to serve, you know, needs for different customer sets around the world. You know, there's gonna be opportunity in synergy in the areas of R&D and innovation, as well as some of our portfolio enhancements in that area. Obviously, Joe, as you know, some of these synergies are gonna materialize sooner than later.

You know, we'll be in a position that once we get the transaction closed, in an upcoming call to give you more clarity on that, in terms of how we're thinking about enhanced growth rates of the new company.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Thanks, guys.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Halloran with Baird. Your line is now open.

Michael Halloran
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Hey, morning, everyone.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Good morning.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Morning, Mike.

Michael Halloran
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Following up a little bit on, I think, Nate's first question. You think about this. You're expecting steady deployments here on the M&CS side over the next period of time here, call it a couple of years, which should give you some pretty good visibility. Doesn't sound like the lag in deployments and delays in deployments have impacted, call it that order cadence. You know, seems like the bottom was back half of the year, and first quarter saw some nice sequential improvement on that side.

I guess I'd like to understand a little bit about what that backfill looks like, what the conversations are looking like from a pipeline perspective on that side, and how you think about the visibility here over the next period of time when you put those two together, the deployment piece and then how that pipeline and thought process with the customers is going.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Yeah. Hey, Mike, it's Matthew. We feel really bullish on it. You can see our orders growth, you know, in Q1 was 8%. If you just take a step back and look at AMI adoption in total for the U.S., it's only at around 30% today. You know, there's a very strong value proposition for this offering for our utility partners to make them more productive and more efficient in their business. That's something, you know, coming through the pandemic, they've really gotten laser-focused on. I would say even, you know, with digital in general, have really latched on to and started to ramp up their capabilities. We're very bullish, you know, over the long term, there will be more and more adoption.

We're still kind of in the early innings, kind of 30% in. When you take a step back and look around the globe, other parts of the world are a decade behind the U.S. in adoption of AMI network. You know, as we not only work the U.S. marketplace and in the U.K., which is also very similar to the U.S., we're now starting to focus on the international front and how we can improve our opportunities there as funding for non-revenue water and smart metering really picks up through some of the subsidies that are coming out in Europe.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Mike, it'd be worth, Matthew, maybe if you wanna give an update. We haven't talked about the Idrica partnership that we announced last earnings call, 'cause that really speaks also to what utilities are doing around the digital side and what we're seeing there in terms of early wins.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Just to reframe it just for folks that were not on the last call. You know, it's exclusive commercial partnership worldwide. It is a SaaS business model. Idrica is headquartered in Valencia, Spain. They're a leader in what we call data management and analytics. As we're out talking to a lot of our utility customers, the biggest pain point we hear from these partners is the need to have a singular platform to integrate all of their applications and data. You know, they have multiple applications, passwords, logins, siloed information, and this really gives us the platform, much like a smartphone, like an iOS platform, to be able to integrate all these disparate systems. It's a proven platform. It's been deployed at over 300 plus utilities.

You know, what I like to say a lot, it's built by utility operator for utilities. They actually understand the utility workflows, which is really important, coupled with our application knowledge that we have as an OEM. You know, our teams are building strong commercial momentum. You know, Sandy talked about the investments that we're making around the globe, especially in Europe, on digital investments and solution selling to deploy this platform. We've built a significant funnel over the past three months, and it's really also gonna enable us to pull through a significant amount of Xylem content. I would say on the next call, we'll be in a much better position to kinda get into some detail on that as it matures over the next 90 days.

Michael Halloran
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Thanks for that. Maybe a similar conversation. Obviously, you don't have the deployment, component necessarily with the core utility pieces within your infrastructure business, but maybe a similar conversation about bidding pipeline thoughts, domestic versus international, and the ability to maintain the momentum on the pump and the treatment side there.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

You know, I'd say in water infrastructure, you know, the utility business, obviously the OpEx is very strong around the world. We haven't seen a really slow down in CapEx either. You know, if you think about Europe specifically, they're really, you know, wedded to making sure they spend their CapEx. Although, you know, I'm not gonna get in, you know, go down the rabbit hole of the infrastructure bill, but over time, that'll start to drip out and start to really provide long-term support and demand in the utility space with water infrastructure, both in the U.S. and around the world. There's other programs like the European Recovery and Resiliency Act.

You've got the AMP cycle in the UK, and all these are coming online in the next, you know, anywhere from 6 to 12 to 18 months, to really, really buoy and lift, the demand, signal for that sector.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Mike, the couple other proof points. The, you know, we look very much at the treatment bidding pipeline because that's a leading indicator for the health of the wastewater side of utilities, and that bidding pipeline continues to grow off of record levels to our backlog and water infrastructure itself was up 14% in the quarter. Really indicating strong health there in that part of the business.

Michael Halloran
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Great. Really appreciate it, everyone. Thanks.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thank you.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Scott Davis
Chairman and CEO, Melius Research

Good morning, team.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Good morning, Scott.

Operator

Scott?

Scott Davis
Chairman and CEO, Melius Research

I was just kind of curious on how you guys think about the kind of long-term growth algorithm of industrial versus industrial production indicators. Kind of when I think about the ebbs and flows, you know, there's so much of the installed base that's probably inefficient at this point could be pulled out. There's all these new projects, mega projects that we talk a lot about, including some pretty high intensity stuff like semi-fabs, I would imagine you guys have a lot of content on. Is there any way to kind of quantify or think about, you know, growing, you know, 2 times IP or 3 times or 1.5? Just kind of curious?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Sure.

Scott Davis
Chairman and CEO, Melius Research

how you guys think about in term.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Scott, great question. So I'll put a caveat up front and say, you know, once we close the transaction with Evoqua, we'll be able to talk much more around how we view their growth outlook and the growth outlook of the combined company, both standalone, but also through the revenue synergies that we're targeting. But as we just look at our respective participation in the industrial piece of the business, I would say for Xylem, you know, because of the nature of what we currently sell into the industrial base, tends to be more of a GDP kind of business. We're selling into the periphery of manufacturing facilities. So as long as the facilities are up and running, they're burning through various types of pumps that we sell replacement into.

It's a good business, good, steady, it's gonna typically be in that low single-digit, sometimes mid-single-digit, kind of growth. When you look at what Evoqua does, they're providing very different, water management services into, the so-called industrial users of water. What drives the growth there, which historically has been in that kind of at least mid-single-digit, if not even higher than that, depending upon where they are in the cycle, is, and this is where we do believe it will outpace, broader, you know, GDP, growth, is because of the increased demands coming in to those users around, one, making sure they have access to sustainable water supply to keep their operations up and running. The value of water to them is not the price they pay per gallon or liter. They don't...

You know, it's not a big number for them. The value of water to them is when they don't have it, and they're operating in water-stressed areas, and they have production stoppage, and it's lost revenue margin. The second is the increased regulatory pressure on them to manage their discharge of wastewater. You know, fines, penalties, but also reputational concerns they have in making sure they're seen as responsible citizens in the community. Those are the pressures that we see are really driving the demand right now, in that part of what we call the industrial sector of water, and we see that continuing.

Scott Davis
Chairman and CEO, Melius Research

Yeah, that's super helpful, Patrick. Am I correct to assume that a semiconductor fab is gonna have a pretty large TAM for you guys?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Yes. That is correct.

Scott Davis
Chairman and CEO, Melius Research

Oh. Okay, I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thank you, Scott.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Andy Kaplowitz
Managing Director, Citigroup

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Morning.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

Hey, Andy.

Andy Kaplowitz
Managing Director, Citigroup

Probably for Matthew. I know you've been working on a number of initiatives, to enhance Xylem's productivity. You know, obviously, Xylem raised revenue guidance nicely for 2023. I think you kept your margins. Maybe just more color into the progress you're making and, you know, what you, what you see going forward there.

Matthew Pine
Chief Operating Officer, Xylem

I mean, I'll start us off and then maybe turn it over to Sandy Rowland to kind of wrap this up. We see really good momentum, you know, in driving productivity, Andi, in the business. There are several different areas that we're addressing in doing that, whether it's across simplifying our portfolio, reducing SKUs, you know, making our factories more efficient in what we build and really moving the long tail out. You know, in terms of footprint, I mean, continued, you know, factory rationalizations, obviously another point that we're looking at.

you know, also within our M&CS business, as we continue to move that business forward, getting after productivity there has been a focus area of ours, is it's been kind of at 2.5% of spend, and we need to get that up around 3.5%, 4%, 4.5%, which is kind of typical of the other two segments. That's another big focus area as well. And also within M&CS too, if you kind of unpack the backlog, you know, the shift to water, the water mix will pick up over time and provide some nice drop through and high calorie margin.

It's a combination of things that we're looking at holistically across the business to make sure over time, we continue to build a sequential momentum in the margin line. Yeah. Yeah. What I, what I'd add on top of that, Andy, is, you know, obviously we're very focused on margin expansion and the goals we set for our organization for 2023 contemplated significant margin expansion. I think we've gotten out of the gate with a good start there. If we look at what we're thinking about the rest of the year, one of the items that we're focused on is, you know, what do the incremental margins look like?

You know, our guide contemplates 30% incremental margins, you know, at a period where we're continuing to make investments and, you know, a period of time where we don't have, you know, the most optimal mix as we work on the deployment. You know, I think we feel good about where we've landed, and we're gonna continue to be focused on productivity through the rest of the year. We're gonna be focused on making sure that our discretionary costs remain tight.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

We're not, Andy, we're by no means, you know, satisfied yet with even where we are saying margins are gonna be this year. Obviously, we're gonna continue to run hard to drive those up even more. Again, we feel it's a responsible, it's responsible, prudent guide at this point in time.

Andy Kaplowitz
Managing Director, Citigroup

Very helpful guys. Patrick, you talked a little bit about Europe and the U.S., in terms of regions, I think, you know, China's been a bit of a drag on your performance in the past. Seems to look a little better in Q1. What are you seeing out of that region, in the near term going forward?

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

No, thanks for the question, Andy. It's, you know, it has been talked about a lot, and it really is an emerging bright spot for us because, you know, we absorbed some pretty challenging numbers there last year. You know that I'm a long-term bull on China, just given where they are in the overall investment cycle from a water standpoint. Orders in Q1 and revenue were both up high single digit and outperformed there. You know, really encouraged by the reopening, you know, across China and, you know, what's happening from a GDP standpoint there. You know, it really sets us up for a pretty strong year.

I would say that we're seeing a faster recovery in the industrial and commercial piece of the market there than we are utilities. Utilities based upon our bidding pipeline and backlog, you know, are set to recover in the second half, so that's a further tailwind for us. Again, the funnel remains very healthy there. You know, encouraged by it. Still a long way to go, but we expect it to be a tailwind this year.

Andy Kaplowitz
Managing Director, Citigroup

Helpful color. Thank you.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Thank you.

Michael Halloran
Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Patrick Decker for any additional or closing remarks.

Patrick Decker
Chief Executive Officer, Xylem

Well, again, thanks everybody for your continued interest, and questions, and the support. Look forward to catching up with you on our next earnings call, and I'm sure we'll see many of you at various conferences between now and then. As always, stay safe, and I look forward to speaking to you again.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Xylem First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

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