Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN)
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Jan 31, 2024

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Yes. Good afternoon, or good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we discuss Zegna Group's preliminary and unaudited revenues for the fourth quarter of 2023 and for the full year. Please note that today's presentation materials and press release are available under the Investors page of the Zegna Group website. Joining us today are members of the Zegna Group leadership team, including Gildo Zegna, Chairman and CEO, Gianluca Tagliabue, COO and CFO , Rodrigo Bazan, CEO of Thom Browne, and Lelio Gavazza, CEO of Tom Ford Fashion . Before we begin, I need to point out that we may make certain forward-looking statements during today's call. Our actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. All such statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in our SEC filings.

I refer you to the safe harbor statement, which is included on page two of today's presentation, and of course, this call will be governed by that language. I will now hand over to Gildo Zegna.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

Thank you, Francesca. Hello to everybody. Let me start by giving you all a warm welcome, and thank you for joining us today. Just a few weeks ago, we had our second-ever Capital Markets Day in New York Stock Exchange, where on that day, we shared our updated medium-term financial ambitions and a very detailed look at our strategy for the group and our brands, which obviously remains the backbone of our execution. As we did highlight then, we are moving beyond just being the undisputed number one player in luxury menswear to tap into the men's opportunity in other soft luxury category. As a multi-brand luxury group, our total addressable market is now three times bigger than before. Our brands perfectly complement each other, fostering a harmonious blend across geographies, categories, and gender.

They have significant untapped potential and opportunities for growth in various markets, categories, customer segments, and channels. As we said during our Capital Market Day, we are very happy with the momentum of our brand, and we're very happy to share that we recorded yet another strong quarter with organic growth of about 20% for both the quarter and the year, and consolidated revenue just short of EUR 2 billion. As we continue to execute the group strategy, we saw growth across all geographies and the continued strength in the U.S., in particular, despite the challenging environment, coupled with the rebound of Greater China region, has been quite encouraging. We are very pleased with the performance of our three brands in 2023. We are a stronger player today, and thanks to our management team, we have been further sharpening our execution.

The resonance of our brands have with customers around the world, supported by our sophisticated clienteling and CRM capabilities, is driving market share gains. We are particularly proud of the progress that ZEGNA has made since rebranding. Our exposure to womenswear, initially through Thom Browne and now also with Tom Ford, is also contributing to these gains. The growth in DTC revenue, in particular, reflects the success of our strategy to continue to increase the desirability of our brands and solidify the leadership position in the luxury market. As you have already heard me say many times, increasing productivity, particularly at ZEGNA, has been an area of focus. We saw the fruit of that in 2023, with a growth of over 50% compared to 2021, well ahead of the plans we had presented in May 2022.

I will never be tired of repeating that this remains a priority, supported by our success of merchandising and by the deployment of new technologies, including ZEGNA X, to further enhance the sophistication of our clienteling. None of that is possible without the support and endorsement of the entire organization and our great sales force, who I had the pleasure of spending time with during an exciting global retail convention, which took place at our headquarters in Milan two weeks ago, which I will share more about shortly. Also, at our Capital Markets Day, we shared our updated medium-term goals, namely to deliver over 10% compounded annual revenue growth and Adjusted EBIT compounded average growth rate of over 20% and solid cash generation, all compared with 2023 as the base year.

Our performance in 2023 strengthened the foundation on which we are building to achieve these goals. This is possible thanks to our strong management team, as well as the tireless effort of our employees across the board. We are aware of the challenges facing our operating environment around the world and of the changes affecting our clients, but we are stronger, more resilient player today, set up with greater diversity in terms of brands and geographies, and generating meaningful market share growth opportunity. We are starting the new year from a position of strength and look forward of the continued success of ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and Tom Ford Fashion under the umbrella of our made in Italy, vertical integrated supply chain and the stewardship of our great team.

We will remain flexible and visible with an eye on cost control and cash protection, but at the same time, we'll continue to invest in the desirability of our brands... power our marketing, as well as strengthening our network of directly operated stores for our sustainable long-term growth. Please turn to page 4 for some key financial highlights from the fourth quarter and all of 2023. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 came in at EUR 570 million, an impressive 40.1% increase from the fourth quarter of 2022. Organic growth for the period was at 19.6%, accelerating from 11.3% in the previous quarter. Total revenue for 2023 were EUR 1.9 billion, a 27.6% increase from 2022, 19.3% of that growth was organic.

In terms of outlook, our revenue confirmed the group is on track to the medium-term financial goals we shared at our Capital Markets Day in December, including over 10% compounded annual revenue growth and Adjusted EBIT compounded average growth rate of around 20%. As a reminder, this growth should be driven by sustained by a number of factors. First, market share gains for ZEGNA and store productivity gains of over 10% per year on top of the 50% increase we did record in 2023. Second, by Thom Browne doubling revenue over the medium term compared to 2021 starting base driven by retail growth. And finally, by Tom Ford Fashion growing by over 10% compound in the medium term, with ambitions of making it one of the 10 largest luxury fashion brands in long-term.

Gianluca will dive into the numbers shortly, but allow me to share still, a few highlights on slide number five. The last quarter of last year and the beginning of this year have been busy for ZEGNA in particular. We recently renewed our eyewear partnership with Marcolin, which started in 2015 and will now extend to 2030. We also kicked off a long-term licensing agreement with Give Back Beauty for the brand's fragrances and cosmetics. And as you may recall, during the Capital Markets Day in New York, Edoardo, Head of Marketing, identified licensing as one of the building blocks for the future growth in the ZEGNA brand, expected to expand by four times in the medium term.

Second, as of the beginning of the year, Zegna took over operations of our business in Korea, South Korea, converting 16 stores into direct-to-consumer point of sales. The internationalization of the South Korean business is in line with our strategy to increase direct control of our brand and mirrors what we did for Thom Browne last year. We also had our Zegna Global Retail Convention in Milan two weeks ago. This brought together about 500 people from all over the world to our headquarters, including our store managers and many style advisors. It was the first time we've held an event like this on a global scale. And what a joy to see these colleagues gather together for the same first time after many years of long distance.

It was exciting to see them fully dive into the totalizing ZEGNA experience, from a visit to the snow-capped peaks in Oasi, the home of our values, to several workshops focused on product, clienteling, styling, technology, and storytelling. I was particularly touched to witness the emotional power of our brand, of our product, and of our industrial roots and Made in Italy platform. We also spent a lot of time setting the priorities and KPI for the next few years. Our focus is on UPT, units per transaction, where we see significant upside and room for expansion. Our technological tools, starting from ZEGNA X, and our styling credentials and capabilities, thanks to our superior product, supply chain, and service, present a fantastic opportunity for growth in units per transaction, in addition to our ongoing productivity improvement.

Of course, this is all in service of our fashion and our product, which Alessandro Sartori showcased his spectacular fashion show at ZEGNA's 2024 Milan Men's Fashion Week show. He fully transformed a large industrial space into an Oasi of cashmere, highlighting this incredible fabric and raw material by creating elements our customers can use to reflect their own sense of style in the most luxurious material. And speaking of fashion show, both Thom Browne and Tom Ford Fashion will be holding their show next month, with Thom Browne showing his latest collection on February 14 in New York, and Peter Hawkings showing the new Tom Ford Fashion collection in Milan on February 22. And with that, let me turn to Gianluca to talk about our performance in the last quarter and year. Thank you.

Gianluca Tagliabue
CFO and COO, Zegna Group

Thank you, Gildo, and I take it from page six of the presentation, if you are following it, and I will be discussing revenues for the fourth quarter and the full year in more detail. As Gildo anticipated, in the full year 2023, total group revenues came in slightly north of EUR 1.9 billion, 27.6% increase from 2022 on a reported actual currency basis, and an increase of 29.7 on a constant currency basis, and an organic growth of 19.3. I recall what organic growth means.

It is the revenue growth versus prior year in constant currency, and neutralizing the effect of that scope coming from an M&A and changes in license agreements where ZEGNA is licensee, which basically means, it means neutralizing the delta coming from the Tom Ford Fashion deal and the South Korea acquisition by Thom Browne that occurred mid-2023. Fourth quarter revenues came in at EUR 570 million, +40% year-over-year, with an increase of 42.9 in constant currency and 19.6 in organic terms. ZEGNA segment revenues for the fourth quarter came in at EUR 385 million, +15.2% reported growth, +18.2 organic increase compared to the same quarter of last year.

Thom Browne segment revenues came in at EUR 999 million, +30% reported growth, +24% in organic terms compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The new Tom Ford Fashion segment was officially consolidated as of April 29th of last year. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenues for Tom Ford Fashion came in at EUR 97 million. As I go through the analysis of the 2023 revenues by, segment, product, geography and channel, I will mainly focus on organic growth as it more appropriately represent the business trend, given the significant impact of changes perimeter, from the TFF consolidation and the acquisition of Thom Browne Korea business from July 1, which moved from wholesale to retail. But you can find all the data in actual and constant currency, in the published documents.

So moving to page eight, jumping into the segment, both ZEGNA and Thom Browne continue to show solid double-digit revenue growth for the quarter and for the full year. In 2023, ZEGNA segment revenues reached over EUR 1.3 billion, with a 19.5% organic growth versus full year 2022. This was thanks to the execution of our direct-to-consumer strategy for the brand, as well as the ongoing improvements to our technological stack, including our CRM systems, that are the basis for our clienteling unique approach. As you noted, we continue to improve productivity for the brand. As a reminder, we disclosed in the capital markets day that sales per square meter has increased by over 50% since 2021.

We pride ourselves on remaining close to the customers, knowing their needs, sometimes even before they recognize them, and providing them with the right products at the right time. We are using technology in addition to the experience and incredible retail teams to make that more true every day, and the result that we show today reflect that. One thing to note here is that we are strengthening our luxury retail business model. We have implemented a new drop-based merchandising strategy. We are moving away from a standard seasonal deliveries model and replacing it with a more spread out cadence of deliveries, approximately on a monthly basis, to make sure that the stores are always properly animated. As a result of this decision, some spring/summer 2024 deliveries were intentionally shifted from Q4 2023 to the first quarter of this year.

This affected some Zegna wholesale numbers for the last quarter of 2023, as I will explain later. As for Thom Browne segment, we saw 2023 revenues reaching EUR 380 million, up 14.9% over the prior year, with 17.8% organic growth on a full year basis. The growth of Thom Browne reflects the consistent demand from consumers, as well as the ongoing DTC expansions that the team is carrying out. The internationalization of Thom Browne South Korea store network, which kicked in on the first of July 2023, is reflected in the shift of some revenues from wholesale to DTC. As for Tom Ford Fashion segment, the brand revenues since its acquisition on April the twenty-ninth through the end of the year came in at EUR 236 million.

We are in the process of setting up the full Tom Ford Fashion organization, taking full advantage of the synergies within the group. The integration of Tom Ford Fashion made-to-measure offering with the group has already contributed to enhanced services for the consumers, and we are building on this momentum by focusing on more made-to-measure events, especially starting from Asia. Moving to pages nine and 10, actually. I will now comment on the geography. Commenting together, pages 10 and 11. Throughout 2023, our performance has confirmed the benefit of a diversified geographical mix, which makes us more resilient through the dynamic global environment. Let's start from Asia. In the fourth quarter, revenues for Asia were EUR 241 million, +39% over the fourth quarter of 2022, and 32% organic growth....

This led to total revenues for the year in the APAC region to EUR 788 million, for an increase of 22% over 2022, and 23.7% organic growth. In the fourth quarter, organic sales growth was faster, thanks to the rebound in Greater China region, coupled with the strength also in Japan and in the rest of Asia. Our rebound in Greater China region led to revenues of EUR 176 million in the fourth quarter, with an increase of 35% year-over-year on a reported basis, and about 36 organic growth, with ZEGNA DTC revenues up almost 40% versus Q4 of last year, thanks to the ZEGNA One Brand strategy execution, and of course, helped also by a low base of comparison, last year, which was affected by COVID-19 closure and restrictions.

Looking at Europe, Middle East and Africa, for all of 2023, revenues from EMEA region were up 26.6% over 2022, and about 19% in organic terms, reaching EUR 659 million, with EUR 69 million coming from the United Arab Emirates, that were up 35% on a yearly basis and about 31% organically. In the fourth quarter, revenues from total EMEA came in at EUR 184 million, growing 30.9% on a reported actual currency basis, compared to the same period of last year, and over 14% in organic terms. Organic growth was supported by the strong performance of the Zegna branded products in the DTC channel, slightly offset by more muted wholesale business, reflecting also the new merchandising strategy mentioned before.

Activity in Europe remained dynamic throughout the year, reflecting strong activity for both domestic and for foreign consumers. In the fourth quarter, the Emirates continued to keep their strong momentum and outperforms the region with revenues of EUR 24 million, up 22% over the fourth quarter of last year and over 20% organic. Next, North America. In full year, revenues of North America reached over EUR 400 million, namely EUR 417 million, with a 41.6% increase over 2022, supported of course, also by the Tom Ford Fashion addition, which is strong in that region, and +11.4% organic. Of this EUR 417 million North America, EUR 385 million come from the United States. North America, fourth quarter revenues came in at EUR 132 million, 60% over last year and +3.2% organic growth.

The US made up a significant portion of these revenues in the fourth quarter, namely EUR 125 million, with a robust 63% increase over the year and 4.4% organic growth. The organic performance in North America needs to be read, taking into account various factors. The organic growth rate was in the high teens for Zegna brand in the DTC channel. This remarkable performance of Zegna retail was partially offset by lower wholesale in Q4 2023, as a result of the impact of the shift in wholesale delivery schedules, which I have previously described, and the conversion of wholesale into retail of the meaningful Saks Fifth Avenue store in New York.

We continue to be encouraged by the growth in the U.S. despite the volatile consumer environment there, and we believe that our unique luxury offering resonates with consumer base, as seen in the strength we exhibited last year. Incidentally, we saw spending on ZEGNA almost doubling among U.S. consumers around the world compared to pre-pandemic levels. Finally, revenues from Latin America grew 29.6% in the quarter and almost 21% in organic terms over the same period to reach EUR 13 million. This brought LatAm revenues to EUR 38 million in the full year, with an increase of 25% over the year and 60% organic. Quickly going through page eleven here, all the comments have already been raised so far. I just remark a few aspects.

The well-balanced incidence at this point between different regions, for instance, GCR representing 31% of group revenues in 2023 and also in Q4, and the fact that we have seen double-digit organic growth across all regions, both for the full year and for the last quarter, with the exception of North America, for the reason already described, remarking the fact that ZEGNA retail in U.S. in Q4 has trailed in the high teens range of growth. Now, going to page 13, product line. ZEGNA branded products contributed 58% of group revenues, with a total of EUR 1.1 billion for the full year. This was a +20% increase in actual currency and a remarkable 22% organic growth for the year.

Revenue for ZEGNA branded products for the fourth quarter came in at EUR 326 million, an 18.8% increase over the quarter. In organic terms, about 21 %, therefore, a pretty steady performance across the quarters along the year. Revenue were boosted by both luxury leisurewear and footwear, which, as you know, are two strategic product areas for the brand. Luxury leisurewear continues to gradually increasing its contribution to the mix, and now makes up about 50 % of the revenues for the ZEGNA brand, as we continue to focus on meeting our customers' desire for this product at the very highest level of quality. Shoes also continue to outperform, growing high double digits last year and now making up 13 % of the ZEGNA product mix versus 8 % last year.

I would just like to recall that at our capital market day, we emphasized the significant opportunity that we still see in this category. As you can understand from this data, the growth of Zegna brand is not only linked to the Triple Stitch success, but in absolute terms, it is mostly driven by the increase in sales from apparel, namely leisure, luxury leisurewear. In this regard, I call out within apparel also our made-to-measure offering, which has been very dynamic, both in formal as well as in casual categories, such as, for instance, knitwear. In made-to-measure, we are investing to elevate customization through technologies such as Zegna X, positioning us even better to cater at our customers and their wardrobe needs.

Thom Browne product line made up 20% of revenues in 2023, as an incidence to the group revenues, contributing EUR 378 million, +14.7% and 17.5% in organic terms. While the brand as a whole continues to grow, womenswear in Thom Browne in particular, continues to outperform, making up 30% of the brand revenues in line with our strategy to increase our offering there. Tom Ford Fashion, whose revenues are, remember, consolidated as of April, contributed EUR 136 million, with the same growth that I mentioned before in when presenting the segment. Our textile products contributed 8% of revenues, EUR 151 million, a 10% increase over 2022 and 9.5% in organic terms.

In the fourth quarter, the textile revenues came in at EUR 42, up 13% versus last year, and 12% in organic terms. Textile business has continued to perform strongly, in particular, thanks to strong deliveries from our Lanificio Ermenegildo Zegna. Finally, third-party brands were down 74% due to the end of the Tom Ford supply agreement and the integration of Tom Ford Fashion into the group. As we have previously noted, sales to the Tom Ford Fashion have been shifted to that segment and are reflected in the intercompany eliminations. Finally, we, we'll take a look at the cut of revenues by channel, page 15, starting from the DTC channel. Our DTC channel saw dynamic organic growth increases across Zegna and Thom Browne.

DTC revenues came in at EUR 1,265 million for the year, with a robust 37% increase over 2022 in actual currency, 24.5% organic growth. DTC makes up, at this point, 66% of revenues in 2023, up 4 percentage points from the 62% of last year. Zegna was again the leading contributor by revenue to our DTC channel, with EUR 945 million in DTC revenues for the year, up 22% and a remarkable +25% in organic growth. This reflects strong double-digit growth across all markets, thanks to significant productivity gains and to 14 net openings from 239 directly operated door-stores at end 2022 to 253 doors at end 2023.

Still, with regard to ZEGNA DTC, compared to 14% organic growth in the third quarter of 2023, the fourth quarter organic growth at 26% represents an interesting acceleration, with most geographies experiencing double-digit same-store sales growth, including a nearly 40% uptick in the Greater China region, albeit against a low comparison base last year. Thom Browne DTC saw fourth quarter revenues of EUR 57 million, up 33% over the same period in 2022, with 13% organic growth. This brought DTC revenues for Thom Browne at EUR 183 million for the full year, up a total of 25.9% over 2022, with an organic growth of almost 20%. Thom Browne DTC revenues reflect the internalization of 17 stores in South Korea from July 1.

This addition, I recall, is excluded from the organic growth metric and reflects also six net openings throughout the year, which brings the DTC network of Thom Browne to a number of 86 doors at end of 2023. Finally, Thom Browne DTC revenue came in at EUR 136 million since the consolidation at end of April, with EUR 59 million in the last quarter of the year. Moving to page seventeen? At 16, sorry. Turning over to wholesale, as a reminder, revenues in this channel can be subject to some volatility, which depends on the delivery schedules and also on the pace of wholesale to retail conversions as per our strategy to increase brand control. This is in addition, of course, to how we look at this channel strategically for the three brands.

Overall, we saw solid growth, both for the quarter, with revenues of EUR 169 million across all brands, up 27.6% in the quarter and about 9% in organic terms. For the full years, with revenues of EUR 635 million, up 11% in actual currency and about 10% organic. This is despite the impact of shifted deliveries mentioned before, and the conversion of wholesale doors to DTC at both ZEGNA and Thom Browne. ZEGNA wholesale came in at EUR42 million in the last quarter, down five points over the same period of last year, and down 6% in organic terms due to the planned shift in deliveries and the conversion into DTC of the important Saks Fifth Avenue location.

For the whole year, ZEGNA wholesale revenues were up 8% in actual currency to reach EUR 164 million, and up 7% in organic growth. Browne contributed EUR 41 million in revenues, wholesale revenues for the last quarter, + 25.8% increase over the year and about 40% organic from a low base of comparison in the fourth quarter of last year, which reflects a different cadence in the deliveries of 2023 compared to 2022. For the year, Thom Browne wholesale revenues landed at EUR 195 million, + 5.8% increase in actual currency, +1 6.7% in organic terms. The lower growth in reported numbers vis-a-vis organic ones, reflects the effect of the internalization of Thom Browne's business in Korea from being a wholesale franchisee to being a DTC business.

Tom Ford Fashion wholesale revenues came in at EUR 38 million in the last quarter, reaching a total of EUR 99 million in wholesale revenues since the consolidation as of April 29th. Third party brands and textile came in at EUR 148 million for the quarter, down 14% in reported numbers, but up 4% organic when we take into consideration the neutralization of the Tom Ford Fashion deal effect. Moving to page 17, quickly an update on our monobrand store network. As of December, Zegna brand has a total of 253 directly operated stores, with 149 net openings during the year. As of the end of the year, the brand is also 151, 151 wholesale locations, which was reduced by five, five through 2023.

Notable changes to the Zegna network include already mentioned Saks Fifth Avenue store shifted to retail from wholesale, openings in some key resort locations, like recently, Saint Moritz and Courchevel. Some other significant additions like East Hampton, Kuwait City, Copenhagen, Jinan, Wuhan, and several relocation or refurbishments. Notably, I would like to mention three outlet store closures in line with our brand elevation strategy, which includes the streamlining, gradual streamlining of that channel, and this trend will continue also in 2024. Thom Browne saw a significant change with the move of 17 doors from wholesale to the retail in Korea. For, on top of this, there has been also other six directly operated stores net openings, especially across the Asia Pacific region.

There have been no notable changes to the Tom Ford Fashion store network, which stands at 121 monobrand stores, with 51 directly operated and 70 wholesale monobrand locations. Finishing before your questions with page 19. As for our outlook, the momentum we have seen across all quarters and the strong exit rates in 2023 underscore our trajectory to meet the medium-term goals we outlined in New York at the Capital Markets Day at the beginning of December. Over the medium term, and with 2023 as the base year, we expect to deliver over 10% compounded annual revenue growth and an Adjusted EBIT to grow by approximately 20% compounded.

We refer to the Capital Markets Day presentation for a full analysis of the drivers of this expected top line and bottom line growth, but as a summary, we expect revenues growth to be driven by the DTC channel, which is expected to land at 75% of group revenues in the medium term, partially driven by store openings, with the DOS network to reach about 500 stores in the midterm, and partially through further productivity gains by over 10% on a compound basis. Then a further gradual rebalancing in the mix of geographies, which is, I explained before, already quite balanced, but we are expecting to have further increase, for instance, in North America. As for Adjusted EBIT growth, we expect the growth to be driven by gross margin expansion.

OpEx leverage despite higher marketing and despite the royalties pertaining to the TSF, Tom Ford Fashion licensing agreement. The latter, this, agreement expected to have about a 1 percentage point negative impact on the group Adjusted EBIT margin percentage. Over the same time frame, we are also expecting solid cash generation, even while taking into consideration higher investments in marketing and CapEx to enhance brand desirability and drive growth. As a reminder, at our Capital Markets Day, we indicated a ratio of CapEx in average of 5%, but with 2024 and 2025 to be slightly in excess of this rate. And now I turn to Francesca to end the session before the Q&A.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Thank you very much, Gianluca and Gildo. Operator, I think we are ready for the Q&A. You can give the instructions for the questions, and we can move it right to that. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question today, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now to enter the queue. When preparing to ask a question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. The first question today comes from Chris Huang from UBS. Chris, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Hi, Chris.

Operator

It appears Chris has disconnected. We'll move on to the next question. The next question comes from Anthony Charchafji from BNP Paribas. Anthony, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Anthony Charchafji
Equity Research Analyst, Luxury Goods, BNP Paribas

Yeah. Thank you.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Hi, Anthony.

Anthony Charchafji
Equity Research Analyst, Luxury Goods, BNP Paribas

Yeah. Hi, Francesca. Good morning. It's Anthony. I have three questions, please. So the first one is on the organic growth, + 20% in Q4. Could you share some details specifically for December? If you're wondering if you have seen an acceleration throughout the quarter. My second question would be on Greater China. The region was up 40% for the ZEGNA branded products in DTC. Now that you have full price policy with no discount, I think in the base, you in Q4 2022 in China, you still have some promotion. So could you share with us the...

I would say, the new profile of your Chinese clientele in the mainland? I mean, if you see, maybe a consumer wealthier and if it has any impact on volume. Last question would be on Thom Browne in the wholesale. So you... It's just a clarification. In the press release, it's mentioned the strong wholesale deliveries due to a low base in Q4 2022, which was up by 60%. So, yeah, it's just trying to understand if the Q4 2023 performance of +40% is a shift from Q3 to Q4 2023 or if it's early deliveries from Q1 2024. Thanks a lot.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Thank you, Anthony. So I'll let Gianluca.

Gianluca Tagliabue
CFO and COO, Zegna Group

I take the first one, Anthony. Hi, Gianluca. So organic, I think, of course, we don't report on a monthly basis. Quarterly is enough. But, to give you a sense, we are—we were happy with our December finish. So to give you a flavor, December was better than October. October was slightly softer, and then November and December were good performance. So, I... We finished on a positive, on a positive note, the year in December. We were happy with our December ending.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

Yeah. Gildo. Hi, Anthony. China, in particular, you're focusing in December or quarter four. I think we were pleased with the performance compared to quarter three, and I must say that we gained a good traction thanks to the iconic Triple Stitch. Because what happened in the States previously is now happening in China. We did anticipate that China was coming in a little bit slow on hitting record numbers in Triple Stitch. And we saw the flow improving, in particular in quarter four, and I think that we think that it could happen again in the current year.

So, I think this iconic product was at the helm of putting new customer in and having loyal customer purchasing. I would say the other thing that we saw is the outreach. I mean, we had a nice increase of outreach, similar to what happened the year before in the United States. And I think that, as the staff is getting more accustomed, the Chinese staff is getting more accustomed, I mean, to this acceleration of new means to reach out new customer and to increase the UPT and to increase the productivity of the store, I think that we remain very positive. We had a slight increase in traffic as well, that helped.

And so I think that's what we realized in particular in December in China. In terms of Thom Browne, I leave it to Rodrigo Bazan to explain the wholesale question.

Rodrigo Bazan
CEO of Thom Browne, Zegna Group

Yes, thank you for the question. In Q4, 2022, we saw an impact of early spring 2023 deliveries from production. Remember, 2022 was extremely busy in factories across the board, and we did see an impact there, so we shipped better in Q1, 2023. What we had is a really good performance of production in 2024, therefore, the product that we had ready with clients that had prepaid and everything, we shipped in 2024, Q4. We are forecasting spring 2024, sorry, in Q4, 2023. We are forecasting a similar percentage of deliveries of early spring 2025 going forward.

So we expect the percentage shipped of the early collection the following year, always to be in that percentage, even though we're looking into a tightening up of wholesale across the board, as we announced in the capital markets.

Gianluca Tagliabue
CFO and COO, Zegna Group

If I may add a mathematical angle, you can follow because all these are all public data. If you look at the weight of Q4 for Thom Browne wholesale, in 2021, it was 16%, in 2022, it was 18%, and now it's 21%. This is consistent with the fact that, as Rodrigo was mentioning, little by little, Q4 is starting to have earlier deliveries on spring, and this has been also part of the good delivery from the supply side and the good appreciation of wholesale accounts that were receptive to the product.

If you look, the incidence was very low in the prior years, and now it's becoming more balanced between the different quarters.

Anthony Charchafji
Equity Research Analyst, Luxury Goods, BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you. Very helpful.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Thank you. Next, question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Huang at UBS. Chris, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Chris Huang
Analyst, UBS

Hello. Hi, I'm Chris Huang from UBS. Congratulations on the results. I have three questions. Firstly, on the Chinese consumer, can you just give us an update on the growth of the Chinese consumer on a two-year stack? I remember it was previously commented out to be flat versus 2021. Do you see any change in that number in Q4? And also related to the Chinese, are you seeing any changes you want to call out in Chinese tourism demand? Secondly, on Tom Ford, at the CMD in December, you provided very helpful thoughts on the brand's strategy and priorities. With the brand now nine months in since its integration, can you share some initial key learnings so far in the journey?

Very quickly, lastly, on price increases, can you comment on how much price increase you plan to do in 2024? Thank you very much.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Okay.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

I will start with the Tom Ford. Of course, after nine months of operation, we established the organization, the structure, and we start moving with the retail expansion. We basically don't see any major change for what we thought we present in the Capital Markets Day in New York in the spring. So we keep on track versus the plan, and we are particularly happy with the retail expansion because in the last few months, we had good feedback from all the major landlord across the world, and of course, finding the space that will allow us to maintain the plan that we presented in December.

Of course, we have, in term of product, we are—we just seen the first few results of the new collection that will be delivered, that will be then reinforced with the fashion show that we will have—we will held in February next year to strain the position of the woman business with a strong accent on the accessory. So basically, no change versus the plan. We are running on track, and we maintain what we say in the Capital Markets Day.

Gianluca Tagliabue
CFO and COO, Zegna Group

Hi, Chris, this is Gianluca. I take the first question about the Chinese cluster growth. We said on December the fifth that we were seeing flat trend of Chinese globally, and we confirm that that has been also in the other 25 days.

So we see Q4 flattish in terms of Chinese, globally for the brand Zegna. What is important to remember, I think we have already discussed this. In 2021, there was an important weight in Greater China of the Z Zegna product line, so the entry product line, which was about above EUR 60 million. So the fact that we are flat is like saying that we left behind, we canceled that line that was overrepresented in Greater China, and we invited into the brand, consumers into the new luxury price point. It's like saying that the luxury business of Zegna has grown more than 15% because Z Zegna was, representing a roughly 16% of Zegna, business in Greater China. So, of course......

Overall number is flattish, but with this important mix that is not seen in any other region because ZEGNA was not as relevant elsewhere.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

On the second question, Gildo, on the second question on tourists and stores, we have not seen a special increment, I must say, also in the fourth quarter. I must say that we have seen some increment of Chinese traveling into Japan and Southeast Asia, but not as far as Europe and America is concerned. So there could be an upside for us this year, maybe in the second half. But we remain cautious on the Chinese tourists still for 2024.

Gianluca Tagliabue
CFO and COO, Zegna Group

I add one point, Gildo. I remember that our brand, in terms of Chinese spending, most of the Chinese spending occur in Greater China. It's more than 90% of Chinese spending occur in Greater China and more than 80% in mainland China. So we are not a brand where spending abroad is big as for other French luxury conglomerates, because consumers tend to buy more, on a domestic, also for service, also for, for sales, also for styling.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

But I think that from the information we have, Chinese abroad tend to spend more on women and on leather accessories than on men's and luxury ready-to-wear. So that could be, you know, a trend, but surely we are looking into that matter, and we are trying to take more advantage of whenever the Chinese will start traveling again.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

There was a question on pricing for 2024. Pricing.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

Pricing. Now, pricing, I think that we have a moderate price increase. As you can recall, so far the pricing, there has not been no price resistance in 2023. Don't forget that for the Zegna brand, we did not go on sale, and so we really have done a very good job on selling product regular price and the full margin. As I said, 2024 is a moderate price increase across the board and across the world.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Does that answer? If this is the case, I can turn the line to the operator, please.

Operator

As a reminder, that's Star followed by one to ask a question today. That's Star one.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

Mm-hmm.

Operator

We have a question from Louise Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs. Louise, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director, Head of European Luxury Goods Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I wondered, thank you for all the detail on the Chinese consumer. I just wondered on the U.S., we've seen a little bit of an improvement across the peers in terms of appetite and spending, domestically within the U.S., and obviously you are predominantly domestic. I wonder if there's any change or anything you can tell us about the characteristics of the U.S. consumer, into Q4. Thank you.

Gildo Zegna
Chairman and CEO, Zegna Group

Listen, we remain talking about the, in particular, we remain positive on the American consumer. You've seen the numbers, which are quite stunning, in the after covers. And I think that this rebranding and this new policy to go up in terms of quality of the product, in terms of personalized service, paid out. And so, we don't see any slowdown in this trend. And the other positive things is that we become more and more a retailing brand in the States. We've turned several wholesale doors into concession. I think that probably the most important one after Nordstrom has been the top door at Saks in New York, and more will come in 2024.

So we control our destiny, we serve our customer directly, we control our merchandising and assortment, and, and we personalize more and more our service. So I think that America has been the first country to go beyond 50% outreach in our retail sales, and, and, and I think that this is very important. Plus, we opened a few, a few doors that are giving good results. And, and so we, we remain positive overall on the American consumer, not only in the States, but also abroad. Because I recall that last summer, we had a, a increase of business thanks to American consumer spending, you know, the holidays in Europe, and we hope that this can continue.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director, Head of European Luxury Goods Research, Goldman Sachs

Super. Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions from the telephone lines, so I'll hand it back to Francesca for webcast questions.

Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Director of Investor Relations, Zegna Group

Thank you very much, operator. I think we are running out of time, actually, and I will thank for. Thank you everyone for participating to our call. And as a reminder, the next set of results is going to be the full year 2023 results, which we will publish on sixth of April, and there will be a conference call dedicated to that then. Thank you very much, everyone, and have a good rest of the day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

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