Borouge plc (ADX:BOROUGE)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 28, 2023

Samar Khan
VP of Investor Relations, Borouge

A warm welcome to everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Samar Khan, and I'm the vice president of Investor Relations at Borouge. With me today, I have Hazeem Al Suwaidi, our CEO, Rainer Hoefling, Chief Marketing Officer, Jan-Martin Nufer, Chief Financial Officer, and Louis Desal, Chief Operating Officer. We will begin with a short presentation by the management team in respect to performance for the period as well as our outlook for 2023. We will then open the call to your questions. I will now hand over to our CEO, Hazeem, to discuss highlights from Q1.

Hazeem Al Suwaidi
CEO, Borouge

Thank you, Samar, and thank you all for joining us today. While Q1 was a challenging quarter, it was also marked by several important strategic and operational initiatives. I am pleased to report that the planned Borouge 2 turnaround was executed on time and on budget. On 17th March, the facility came back online. This retains 200 kilotons of capacity to our platform, supporting full production volumes going forward. Revenue declined by 13% versus the prior quarter, primarily impacted by lower sales volumes resulting from the planned turnaround and partially offset by higher polyolefin selling prices over the period. EBITDA and net profit consequently declined, but margins remained stable versus the previous quarter, supported by cost savings. We would note that the early success of our Value Enhancement Program, which has already delivered over $100 million in cost savings and revenue optimizations at quarter end.

We will touch on this in more details later. We are also looking forward to further positive impacts from the program later this year. Strong cash conversions remains an important differentiator for our business, supporting our commitment to pay at least $1.3 billion in dividends for 2023. I'll now hand over to Rainer to talk about our market, the opportunities it presents, and to provide an update on improving pricing and premium.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Thank you, Hazeem, and good afternoon, everyone. As you will already be aware, Q4 2022 was characterized by challenging operating conditions driven by a global inflationary environment, industry-wide softening of prices, and volatility in oil and gas markets. Much of this has carried into 2023. As a business, we are in a strong position, proactively addressing market needs and with the ability to place volumes and be tactical about the markets we serve in response to changes in demand. We offer a highly diversified portfolio of premium products that is purpose-built to address global trends, such as growing demand for energy transition infrastructure, the rising popularity of electrical vehicles, and the critical need for water access and sanitation. Borouge is serving high growth markets with 68% of global polyolefin demand coming from our core geographies.

These markets are expected to drive global demand, representing 86% of forecasted growth from 2022 to 2026. It is also important to note that the long-term industry environment for polyethylene continues to be robust, with the new demand expected to significantly outpace newly supply during the coming years. Moving on to polyolefin pricing and premium. Polyolefin average selling prices improved in Q1, driven by improved market demand and constrained supply due to plant and unplanned production shutdowns, resulting in improved product benchmark prices and premium expansion. Average selling prices for PE and PP improved by 8% and 6% respectively versus Q4 2022. In Q1, we recorded polyethylene premia of $264 per ton and polypropylene premia of $137 per ton.

Market outlook remains cautious and market analysts anticipate a narrow band price volatility in 2023. Market analysts also expecting stable demand growth in Borouge target markets. Statistics for in-country consumption in China are positive as indicated by PMI indices, though export remain lower, reflecting macro dynamics in developed markets. We are therefore able to reaffirm our over the cycle guidance for premia of $200 per ton for polyethylene and $140 per ton for polypropylene, which is made possible by our differentiated product mix and our ability to capture tactical and regional pricing opportunities. I will now hand over to Louis to take us through some operational highlights from the first quarter.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

Thank you, Rainer. We'll now look at the production volumes and operational upgrades, before I ask Rainer to discuss sales. The major operational event of the quarter was the planned Borouge 2 turnaround, impacting production volumes, which declined by almost 19% versus the prior quarter. As this slide shows, there was a significant capacity utilization impact during this quarter for both polyethylene and polypropylene, which had previously averaged more than 100% utilization.

With the turnaround successfully executed on time and on budget, we have since returned 200 kilotons of capacity to the total production volume. It is worth noting that during the Borouge 2 turnaround, we were not able to utilize our Olefins Conversion Unit to produce cost-advantaged internal propylene. With the restart of the facility, this is now back online. Overall utilization for the Olefins Conversion Unit in the quarter averaged 44%. During the period, we also completed the successful and safe reinstatement of our LDPE unit, allowing the XLPE to restart using own produced LDPE-based resin. Meanwhile, at PP5, we delivered a successful test run of the further differentiated grades as part of our initiative to extend the product portfolio. We look forward to provide further updates on this in due course.

Coming back to the successful execution of the Borouge 2 turnaround, I would like to take a moment to highlight the importance of regular maintenance works at our facilities. The quality and operational excellence of our plants is a key competitive advantage for us. Therefore, we make regular investments to keep our assets highly reliable, and our plant turnarounds are scheduled with a five-yearly cycle. Our plants are young, well-maintained, and highly reliable. 90% of our capacity is less than 12 years old and run year-round with limited to no downtime. In 2022, we reached an overall asset reliability run rate of 92% and achieved a record quality performance measured as first-time- right production rate of 97%. As a result, we are both dynamic with our assets and flexible in our operations, thus fulfilling highest levels of customer expectations. Back to you, Rainer.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Thanks, Louis. Let's briefly touch on sales volumes. As mentioned earlier, volumes were materially lower versus the previous quarter, mainly linked to reduced production capacity due to the plant turnaround. They were up more than 5% on a year-on-year basis. Olefin prices improved in Q1 , hence, these lower volumes were partially offset by higher average selling prices. Our sales volumes for Energy and Infrastructure Solutions were particularly strong at 46% of the total polyolefin sales. Asia Pacific remains a key region, with 61% of total polyolefin sales volumes, followed by Middle East and Africa with 31% of total polyolefin sales volumes. I will now hand over to Jan- Martin to discuss our financials.

Jan-Martin Nufer
CFO, Borouge

Thank you, Louis and Rainer. I'll be fairly brief on this slide because we have already covered the main reasons for the negative impact on our income statement metrics. The quarterly revenue decline was the direct result of the plant Borouge 2 turnaround, and this also impacted EBITDA and net profit. It is important to note that our EBITDA margin of over 33% remains strong and stable. Thanks to the cost savings and revenue optimization achieved by our Value Enhancement Program, on which we will speak more later, as well as the revenues from superior product mix and differentiation. While net profit was down 19% from the previous quarter, the impact of lower production volumes was partially offset by improved pricing in addition to the mentioned impact of the Value Enhancement Program. Onto the next slide.

We will now look at cost, an area where we made already important and material progress in the first quarter. Our overall cost base declined by 12% as compared to Q4. A significant achievement in an operating environment that has been characterized by elevated costs, particularly for feedstock and logistics. We have been successful in reducing our selling and distribution expenses by almost 43% year-on-year, respectively by 33% quarter-on-quarter, and have reduced our cost of sales by more than 9% as compared to quarter four. Meanwhile, other variable and fixed production costs declined by 23% and G&A costs by 22% as compared to the previous quarter.

Feedstock costs increased due to the higher market price of externally sourced propylene and also due to the Borouge 2 turnaround, which meant we were temporarily not able to internally source propylene from cost-advantaged production by our Olefins Conversion Unit. Borouge's strong position on the cost curve is an important component that, when combined with improved premia against benchmarks, supports a strong margin profile. Going forward, our objective is to continue managing down our cost and maintaining them sustainably at lower levels, thereby taking advantage of the opportunity that will be provided by a return to full production capacity. Sticking with efficiencies, we'll now look at our ambitious Value Enhancement Program in more detail. As we had announced during our last earnings cycle, we have introduced a very significant Value Enhancement Program to support future growth opportunities and enhance our competitive positioning.

In light of challenging market conditions, our focus is on managing conversion, logistics, and fixed costs, as well as revenue optimization. We expect the program to result in a net positive $400 million impact to be realized at EBITDA level for 2023, targeted to offset the impact of macroeconomic challenges and pricing pressures. Looking further ahead, we expect to sustain a 15% net positive EBITDA impact from 2024 onwards versus our 2022 baseline. I'm pleased to report that at the end of Q1, we have already realized a total program impact over cost and revenue elements in excess of $100 million. We consider this a major achievement this early in our Value Enhancement Program, as implementation of improvement programs usually is ramping up gradually.

In terms of where this has been realized, while over half has been realized as expected through the reduction of logistics variable cost, almost a third from revenue optimization and the remaining from reduction of fixed cost and conversion variable cost. Particularly in the fixed cost area, the immediate measures that have been taken early in the preparation have shown the positive effects. This has been an excellent start to our highly ambitious program, and we look forward to providing you with further updates on progress during the coming quarters. I'll finish by discussing CapEx and cash flow before handing over to Hazeem to conclude the presentation. Cash conversion in the quarter was at 82% versus 86% in the previous quarter. This due to operations expenses related to the Borouge 2 turnaround. Our net debt stood at $3.277 million.

In January, we took the opportunity to repay $500 million of our Commercial Term Facility from the excess cash at hand. This resulted in interest cost savings. We intend to further actively manage our debt portfolio and very strong balance sheet going forward. I now hand back to Hazeem to summarize and wrap up the presentation.

Hazeem Al Suwaidi
CEO, Borouge

Thank you, Jan-Martin. Activity in our core markets remains stronger than in developed economies. In- country demand in China, an important geography for us is looking healthier. We continue to focus on differentiated products and markets, in particular on our Energy and Infrastructure Solutions segments, which is demonstrating relatively more resilient pricing. We reiterate our over the cycle guidance of $200 per ton for PE and $140 per ton for PP, and we expect strong results from our Value Enhancement Program to continue for the remainder of the year. From Q2 onwards, as we will return to full production capacity and maximum asset utilization, we expect to return to full production. Before closing, I would like to take the opportunity to reiterate our business highlights, which position Borouge favorably through the cycle.

We own and operate a young, well-maintained, and highly reliable asset base, one of the largest single- site, fully integrated polyolefin production platforms in the world with an in-play production capacity of 5 million tonnes per year. Our core markets are the largest and fastest growing markets globally, with robust long-term demand growth. We have a strong foothold in these markets, thanks to the strength of our commercial platform and distribution network. We continue to provide high-value differentiated products, leveraging our direct sales network. Our technology and commercial excellence have allowed us to produce superior products which yield premium prices. We are also focused on R&D, as seen in our dedicated state-of-the-art Abu Dhabi Innovation Center. Our feedstock contracts are priced competitively in the first quartile of the cost curve and run for long-term, thereby ensuring security of supply.

We have demonstrated an ability to realize premiums over benchmark prices consistently, a key differentiator of our business. We maintain a strong cash conversion, which is supported by resilient through the cycle margins. Before we move to the Q&A, I would like to say a few words about today's COO, our Chief Operating Officer announcement. I would like to thank Louis for his many contributions to Borouge and for his strong leadership and commitment towards always driving operational excellence and transformation with a 100% HSE mindset. Louis will assist Hasan in a transitional capacity to ensure business continuity and a seamless transition before returning to take a role in Borealis. With this, I would like to also with the pleasure to welcome Dr. Hasan Karam, who has been confirmed as a Borouge COO, effective from the first of May, 2023.

Hasan comes with 29 years of experience in senior operations, roles within ADNOC, and most recently managing the operations at ADNOC Refining. With that, we'll move to the Q&A session, please.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your line is unmuted locally. Again, that's star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Our first question come from Ricardo Rezende from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ricardo Rezende
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Two questions on my side. The first one, if we look at the improvement on the benchmark prices for PE and for PP during the quarter, it was a lot lower than the improvement in your premium for the product. If you could just give us a little bit some more color on what are the major drivers for such a relevant improvement on the premium for the first quarter? On the second question, you mentioned the impact from the lower utilization on the OCU during the quarter and how that impacted costs. Would you be able to provide any color on the financial impact from the lower utilization? Thank you.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

I will take up the question on pricing and then premium. What we have seen already in the quarter four in December was that due to the fact that China was opening up, the overall fundamental sentiment in the market got better, so demand went up. Also, we have seen this in China with PMI index went up from 47 to 52. Which means we were facing a good demand growth in the first quarter in China and Southeast Asia, and in the GCC region it was always a good stable growth. In a combination, right, where we had a number of shutdowns seen in the Middle East regions, right, and some unplanned shutdowns.

The supply got constrained and there we could use then the momentum of course, in a combination to move the prices up significantly. Due to the fact that we always said we are not a commodity player, we are a differentiated player, right? We are able to be also tactical when it comes to our volume allocation. Right? We took also this momentum, right, to increasing the prices specifically on the infrastructure segment stronger than the commodity prices went up. We were also able to do the fact that we were ourselves to turn around a bit constrained on the volumes. Right? We tactically moved the volumes also more into regions with the higher netbacks, so Asia South and then the Middle East regions.

This is how we brought then the premiums higher up than the market went up. Premium went up in polyethylene then 8% and in polypropylene, 6%. Overall, I think a good achievement in quarter one in terms of prices and premium.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

Thank you, Rainer. I will take the question on the Olefins Conversion Unit. As mentioned earlier in the call here, our Borouge 2 turnaround was one of the key activities in the first quarter. Our Olefins Conversion Unit is part of the turnaround scope. It's belonging to the Borouge 2 complex, and therefore it was not in operation during the turnaround. That brought the total utilization in the quarter to 44%. The unit is of course restarted together with the other units after the turnaround. Looking forward, we are looking at a utilization rate which will be 100% because we are maximizing the flexibility we have to 100% at, and running propylene production based on advantaged feedstock. That is the outlook for the rest of the year. We are back, on track with, maximizing, propylene from olefins. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Prateek Bhatnagar from HSBC. Prateek, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Prateek Bhatnagar
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Thanks a lot for taking my question. I have two. The first one is basically a follow-up of the previous one. You said that the LDPE plant has started back, and you've also guided to OCU unit operating at a higher elevated operating rate. How do you get additional ethylene from it? Have you got additional ethane allocation through which you can operate your ethylene cracker at a higher operating rate and supply both the LDPE unit and OCU? That's my first question. How do you operate both at elevated operating rates? The second question is on the China demand. You've guided to higher PMI and better margins in Q1. At present, what kind of demand improvement are you seeing from China reopening, in terms of order book, any uptick from infrastructure or real estate segment? Thanks. These are my two questions.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

I'm not 100% sure if I all captured. I think the first part was a bit about the supply, demand and operating rates in the market. The second question about how China is developing as such on the demand side and also in relation to PMI. Is that what I captured?

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

Yeah. The first one was also on LDPE, OCU.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Okay. That, I think, Louis can take on the.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

Just if the person can repeat the questions again, please. Just in short and in a slow manner, please.

Prateek Bhatnagar
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Sure. Sure. I'll repeat. You've guided that OCU, your Olefins Conversion Unit, will run at an elevated operating rate, and your LDPE unit has also started back. How do you get additional ethylene to supply both of them? Because earlier your guidance for OCU was that it will run at around 50% to 60%. How do you get additional ethylene to supply both the.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Okay.

Prateek Bhatnagar
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

After the LDPE.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Second one, please. Second one.

Prateek Bhatnagar
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

China. Is on China. Any demand uptick do you see after China reopening, at present?

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

China demand. Yes, go ahead, Louis.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

I can take the first part. As you know, if I start with the Olefins Conversion Unit, the Olefins Conversion Unit is one of our key assets, which gives us a lot of flexibility anticipating. Okay. If, is this better?

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Yeah.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

Okay. On the Olefins Conversion Unit, our Olefins Conversion Unit is one of the key strategic assets that we have that gives us the flexibility to look at optimized utilization depending on what the pricing is of feedstock and how the market looks like. The current view is that maximizing utilization of OCU gives us the best net profit. That's also why currently we are looking at maximizing utilization. Of course, this is driven by the fact that we have excellent production of our olefin units.

We have maximized production of ethylene, which gives us the opportunity to also maximize utilization of the Olefins Conversion Unit. Given that our PP5 plant is also performing excellent after the start of last year, our ramping up to maximum capacity is also demanding this extra propylene. That's one of the areas also why we are using our Olefins Conversion Unit maximum. When I go back to LDPE was restarted in the first quarter indeed, was restarted in the month of March and is operating at excellent rates, giving us the, yeah, the required base resin for XLPE production unit, which is our, yeah, most profitable wire and cable product that we have. We are back fully on track with our LDPE/XLPE combination, which gives us, of course, yeah, a very good outlook for the rest of the year.

Rainer Hoefling
CMO, Borouge

Let me quickly elaborate a bit on China. After China opening up and also welcoming international companies, they have seen that the PMI index or manufacturing index went up to around 52, coming from a very low number. You also see that the private consumer index went up to 50, 56, 57, also from a lower number. There's a following going on, right? In China, they stimulate the consumer behavior, consumer spending. What you see, I was myself in China for one and a half week now. I talked to a number of people. What you see in China is that they start consuming again.

They don't spend yet the money for luxury goods and big goods, don't buy big cars but this will come stepwise when they gain back the confidence. What the government is doing, they stimulate the infrastructure projects and also projects towards energy transition. We ourself had finalized some projects in China recently, where we were supplying material for pipes in a nuclear power plant, or we were supplying a material where more than 100 km of one cable was produced for a offshore park in China, right, for submarine cable. There's a number of things going on there, right? There will be a stable growth.

What is still a bit cautious on China, of course, is the export side, right? Also in-country growth will come. The export side, they are depending a bit also on growth opportunities in Europe and in the U.S. This will take a little bit more time. There is a positive momentum in. We had the China plas for one week. When three years ago, right before the pandemic China plas you have seen 130,000 visitors. This time it was 250,000. The industry, they invited international companies. There is a momentum in it, we need to be a bit patient that takes off. A 3-5% ambition on GDP growth and polyolefin growth being hand in hand with GDP, right. With factor 1.2, 1.4 in infrastructure, we will see a good growth, and this will have also an impact on Southeast Asia and the rest of our territories.

Prateek Bhatnagar
Associate Director and Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Thanks a lot. Very helpful.

Operator

Our next question come from Basil Al Azmeh from Goldman Sachs. Basil, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for the presentation. This is Wim Jamar from Goldman Sachs, asking on behalf of Basil Azmeh. We just have a couple of questions from our end. First of all, on the company's Value Enhancement Program, you've already mentioned that the company realized around $100 million in the first quarter. I was wondering if you could just give us some guidance on how should we think about this, the phasing of the remaining target or for the second through fourth quarter of the year. That's my first question. On the second question is on the international expansion slash M&A front. Could you provide us with some updates on the area slash product that you're considering growing? That's it from my end.

Siegfried Wengler
SVP of Finance, Borouge

Hello, this is Siegfried Wengler, the Vice President for Finance. Thank you for the question. I will take the first one on the Value Enhancement Program. As you have stated, we have communicated the delivery of the first $100 million in the first quarter. We also reconfirmed the delivery of the full $400 million over the course of the year 2023. That means up to date, we are on track with the execution and the delivery of the benefits committed. We expect the delivery now specifically on quarter two, quarter three, and quarter four. As you can see, we are around at 25%. From that angle, the expectation is that similar benefits are contributed over the upcoming quarters to achieve the $400 million over the year. With that, I hand over to Hazeem for the second question.

Hazeem Al Suwaidi
CEO, Borouge

Thank you, Siegfried. I can take the second question on the international expansion. As we have communicated last time, we of course, we in Borouge, we continue to focus on our organic growth. For example, the landmark Borouge 4 project, which is truly going in the right directions. The project execution is progressing quite well. Just to remind everybody, this is 1.4 million tons of additional capacity, which is a 30% additional capacity will be added to Borouge by 2025, as we have communicated. We also, as was also communicated as well, that our board has mandated us, the management, that we continue to seek and explore growth opportunities through international expansion.

We are of course, we are always open to the right opportunities provided by the value created to the business that has to fit within our disciplines approach to capital allocation. It has to be also, it has to complement our organic growth program. Of course, any expansions that would come, has to come through a new or existing assets, will be focused on geographies and markets that support company's existing strategy, strategic priorities. For now, we cannot disclose the level of investments we will be committing to these activities at the present time. Our very strong cash flows and robust balance sheet both contribute to our ability to invest in growth while paying highly competitive dividends to our shareholders.

Speaker 10

Clear. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Our next question comes from René Selvin from Jadwa Investment. Rene, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi. Thank you for the call and the presentation. Very useful. I wanted to ask about the cost of the turnaround. How much cost was incurred at the B2 turnaround? Second, as of April, you're saying you're operating at 100%. Is there any enhancement in this turnaround where we can assume higher volumes post turnaround? What are the planned turnarounds for 2023 other than this one or 2024?

Hazeem Al Suwaidi
CEO, Borouge

This can be answered by Siegfried.

Siegfried Wengler
SVP of Finance, Borouge

Thank you for the questions on the Borouge 2 turnaround. I'm happy to confirm that we have completed the Borouge 2 turnaround on time, and within budget. From that part, the production has now resumed. On the operating rates, I hand over to Louis.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

On the enhancements question, have we done any enhancements? We have, I mean, the turnaround scope is, of course, always there to ensure that the reliability of the assets between the turnaround cycles is maximized. That means that we have done several enhancements such as lifetime extension of systems, upgrading of systems to secure this reliability. We have a continuous program of reliability uplift, and that is where you can see the enhancements.

In addition to that, as part of the preparation for Borouge 4, there have been also tie-ins, so connections, future connections between the assets installed in the Borouge 2 complex to make sure that when Borouge 4 is ready for starting, that those connections are available and that we don't need to have additional stops on the assets. If you look at the totality of the turnaround activity, you have the specific turnaround scope, and then next to that, we have some specific projects which enable us to start Borouge 4 later with connecting systems between the assets. That is where the additional enhancements have been done with the focus on our growth based on Borouge 4.

Speaker 11

Okay, thanks. Would you mind sharing the cost of this turnaround?

Siegfried Wengler
SVP of Finance, Borouge

We are not disclosing the CapEx for the Borouge turnaround standalone, but, as alluded by Martin earlier in the presentation on the overall capital expenditure, the costs have been fully captured in those numbers disclosed.

Speaker 11

Okay, thank you. Sorry, I was asking about the future turnarounds, if possible, in 2023 and 2024.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

The future turnaround today is looking such that in 2024, we have the Borouge 3 turnaround.

Speaker 11

Yeah.

Louis Desal
COO, Borouge

That is the, at this was announced earlier that the Borouge 3 turnaround is in 2024. As we had the Borouge 1 turnaround last year, in 2022, that would mean that the next turnaround is 2026 for Borouge 1 again. Sorry, 2027. It's a five-year cycle. The Borouge 1 was last year in 2022, so the next Borouge 1 is in 2027, and next year we have Borouge 3 to complete the turnaround of 1, 2, and 3.

Speaker 11

Okay, very clear. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions, so I'll hand the call back to the management team for any closing remarks.

Hazeem Al Suwaidi
CEO, Borouge

I would like to thank everybody for participating with us today, and we are always happy to take your inquiries. Looking forward to interacting, engage with you next time, Inshallah. Thank you, everyone.

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