Restore plc (AIM:RST)
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Mar 20, 2024

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Great. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Restore plc's 2023 results presentation. Our last comms were our Capital Markets Event in November, which I guess is four months ago. That was fairly numbers light, not least because Dan had only recently joined as our CFO. And so today we'll have an opportunity to talk more about the numbers within the business. So I will top and tail. I'll start off with the overview, hand over to Dan, and then I'll conclude with some words on the outlook. Great. So in fact, not on some of this page, not a lot has changed since November. So the key priorities really remain the same as they were now. What we're very keen to do is focus on operating margin across our individual business units and across the group.

To me, strong operating margins reflect the quality of the business, and also once good operating margins are established, it becomes a great platform to move on to further growth. Clearly, the importance of cash generation, this should be a key feature of our businesses, given the strength of their market positions and the fact that they're very well invested. And I think in the current markets, cash generation is something which everybody likes to see, so we're also focusing on that. And the third area, it's rather dramatic phrasing, the business units to unleash their potential. We have five related businesses, all of which have every opportunity to prove that they are high margin, cash generative, and have got great potential. So that's really been, that remains the priorities of the business.

You've probably heard these messages from Restore many times. We need to utilize the strengths of our business. We are market leader, so we are. Three of our businesses, we're comfortably the market leader, and the two where we're not the market leader, we're effective. There are really two main players in both of those markets. Clearly, an element of our business, which is very important, is that our revenues are recurring, and they're very strongly contracted. This is obviously most apparent in Records Management and also in Datashred , but increasingly, we're working to achieve that, both in Digital and also in our Technology businesses. We also have, it's, you know, there are no obvious disruptors in our markets, and all of our services will continue to be required at similar levels for the foreseeable future.

So all of this contributes to what should be high operating margins across the group. I've set a, I suppose, a stretch goal that across the business, we should be able to achieve operating margins of 20% over a certain period of time. And actually, over the last decade, Restore has historically delivered margins across the group in excess of, around or in excess of 20%. So that's the target. And we're also what our services are all about, it's about compliance, security, reliability, service delivery, and these are things which are particularly valued by blue chip customers and increasingly, government customers. So this is absolutely what our business is about and what we want to focus on. And also, when you have those conditions, price becomes an element, but not the key element.

Since last September, you'll be aware there have been structural changes. James Hopkins has moved up to be our chair. I came in as CEO in September, and Dan joined us November as CFO. We've changed the management in two of our five business units, and the, as part of, giving more responsibility back to the operations, most of our central departments have been disbanded or rationalized. So the management style is very much, what I think is the best way to run these businesses on a decentralized basis, let and reduce excess demand for information from our operations. We don't, I don't want to spend all day asking all of our operations, what are they doing? What are their numbers? So that I can make a decision for them.

What I need is short lines of communication, everybody to understand what they're being asked to do, and what I would call an eyes on, hands off policy. We have extremely good financial systems within the business. Dan and I can see what's going on, we can understand what's going on. We can let people take, have power and responsibility for their operations, but we can also step in when we feel that things are not going in the right, in the right direction. We enjoy doing that. Most people, it's quite enjoyable when you sort of go, "I don't think they quite got that right," and then talk to them about why we don't think that's the case.

So short lines of communication, don't have these swingeing charges, which the, where the business units sort of go, "Well, there's head office coming in again, whacking me with that hammer. I'm meant to hit my budget when they start doing that." None of those. And also, I think that, that we are comfortable with making acquisitions, but having been an acquisition-led business, that is not what we're about over the next 18 months. So that's the, the overview. Let me hand over to Dan.

Dan Baker
CFO, Restore PLC

Thank you, Charles, and good morning, everyone. So I should say, when I last met with all this group of people, it was day four. Yesterday, I completed month four. No card or anything, but feel like I've got my feet under the desk a lot more now. So I'm gonna talk to you about three things. One, I'll start with a summary of the, financials, give you an overview. Two, I'll take you through the primary statements and adjusted items. And then thirdly, I'll round off with some, modeling assumptions for next year and, capital allocation framework. So in summary and overview, solid revenues, for, for the year, broadly flat with last year. And a strong performance in Records Management, supported by price rises and strong growth in Harrow Green, our relocations business.

Weaker performances in Technology as we talked about, partly because of the ITAD, the depressed ITAD market. Also weak performance in Digital, and that was non-repeat contracts and less bulk scanning. And paper pricing in DataShred was depressed, and all of these as trailed at the half year by Jamie. Adjusted operating profit of GBP 44.3 million, so down 15%, declined 15% than last year, driven by those three headwinds I just mentioned. And then adjusted profit before tax of GBP 30.3. That's less the finance costs. Statutory loss of GBP 29 million, primarily because of the impairments, the non-cash impairments on DataShred, which was at the half year, and also a couple of smaller bits in the second half.

Final dividend of GBP 0.0335, so full year dividend of GBP 0.052, giving cover of 3.3 times, which is the same as last year, just with a rebase, rebased profit. And the net debt, GBP 97.8 million down, reduced by 6%. Good cash conversion, 110% cash conversion, and a leverage of 1.9. Revenues, this sort of split of revenues by nature, this hopefully is familiar to you from the half year, the donuts, as we referred to them in the half year that Jamie presented. And what it shows is a high degree of recurring revenues and really the quality ... I think I mentioned this at the Capital Markets Event, the quality of the revenues shine through here.

The numbers for the full year are reasonably consistent with the half year, so pretty much unchanged. So high degree of recurrence, particularly in the Digital information management segment, which, of course, has got the Records Management business in it. Then bridging revenue from 2022 to 2023. We've got a bit of a sandwich here. Records Management, strong performance, as I mentioned, and that's mainly driven by pricing. And then we've got the headwinds that the business faced during 2023. So Digital, Technology and Shred, Datashred in particular, depressed paper pricing, which drops straight through to the profit, which we'll talk about in a second. And then finishing off with a good performance from Harrow Green.

That included the delivery of a large pharmaceutical company into Cambridge during the year. So that was a strong performance from Harrow Green. So that ended up full year revenues of GBP 277.1 million. Then just looking at profits. So this is Adjusted Profit Before Tax. Pretty much a similar story. So good performance in Records Management, and that pricing dropped into the into profits. And then that was largely canceled out through headwinds and cost inflation. So people and property, there are our two biggest biggest costs. We had inflation on both of both of those, and also a little bit on on energy costs, electricity in particular. And then, as I said, the the paper price dropped through.

Just as a reminder, GBP 10 difference on paper price, given we've got 50,000 tons of paper, reduces profit or changes profit by GBP 0.5 million, so that drops straight through onto profit. And of course, finishing off, we've got interest, the bank rate was higher, higher in 2023 than it was in 2022, which dropped three point seven million of profit. So rounded the year of 30.3 adjusted profit before tax. So a little bit of detail on our two divisions, just starting off with Digital information management. So this is Records Management and Digital, those two businesses. Good performance, Records Management, so that's 70% of the income. They were up 9% on revenue.

Softening of the bulk scanning in Digital, combined with a strong comparative. In 2022, we had the Scottish census in Digital, so a strong non-recurring comparative. So that combined to give a 16% decline on Digital revenue. And then adjusted profit margins, operating margins reflect those lower profits in Digital following the strong 2022. Records Management broadly flat year-on-year, with pricing offsetting inflation. So Secure Lifecycle Services are the other divisions. So we've got three businesses in there: Technology, Datashred and Harrow Green. As I said, the ITAD, IT destruction sector, was depressed last year, reduced hardware investment by the customers. That was a market factor. Datashred did well on service income, but offset by the decline in paper pricing.

And as I said, a strong, strong growth in Harrow Green, which was helped by that life science contract I mentioned into moving into Cambridge. So touching on cash, strong free cash generation, 110% conversion. This continues to be a good, good quality of Restore and will endure in the future. Finance costs, GBP 12.8 million of those. Most of that is the interest on the facilities we have, so GBP 7.5 million. And we've also got some finance lease costs in there as well. So net debt reduction down to GBP 97.8 million and closing leverage of 1.9. And we'll, I'll come back to talk about leverage in our preferred range later on.

So at the end of the year, we had GBP 97 million of the RCF, the revolving credit facility, drawn, and we had the GBP 25 million US private placement. And of that, the US private placement is fixed rate, and GBP 25 million of the RCF is hedged. And moving on to the balance sheet, as we said at the half year, the non-cash impairment of Datashred on the goodwill is one of the big movements, and that, as we talked about the half year, is changing the cost of capital and also the s o reduced cash balance year-on-year, I'd like to point out. So about GBP 30 million, 2022, December 2022, down to almost GBP 23 million at the year end, and we'll continue to work on that.

I'll come back to that when I talk about the capital allocation and the guidance. But overall, strong balance sheet, key ratio is consistent with prior period. So adjusting items, and I'd like to just talk through a little bit of the detail, but also highlight what's cash and what's non-cash. And the reason I want to do that is a lot of it is non-cash. So largely as expected and trailed, hopefully no surprises here. The biggest is the asset impairment. That's, of course, non-cash. Datashred is the biggest part of that, so GBP 32.5 million. And then we also had a site closure in Digital and a business exit in Technology.

We then had some non-cash costs on property, and this is in relation to the portfolio of property that we've got. We did a review, and I'll touch on this again later of our portfolio, particularly in Records Management, and looked again at what properties we wanted to be in in the long term. And then a couple of cash costs, restructuring redundancy. So there's some group restructuring, and then there's also in management changes. And then finally, we had the IT restructuring program, GBP 1.6 million of that, which is a consolidation of finance systems. So just in summary, high proportion, vast majority, non-cash in the adjusted items.

So just looking forward a little bit, I trailed this at the, at the Capital Markets Event, and this is a build on, on what I think I said in my 2 or 3 minutes I had then. So, we'll, we'll work top to bottom, so targeting investments with the emphasis on organic growth and not inorganic, emphasis on organic growth. We'll work to pay down the, pay down the debt, and we've got quite a few of the, the bankers in the room, but we'll pay down that debt during the year. Keeping leverage in the range of, of 1.5 to 2x EBITDA, so at 1.9 at the end of the year. Maintain the dividends, increasing relative to our profit, but at a measured and sustainable rate.

And then lastly, a limited share purchase, but mainly to satisfy employee incentive schemes. So then we've done some good housekeeping since the year end in the last couple of months. We canceled GBP 75 million of the RCF, so it was GBP 200 million at the year end, it's now today GBP 125 million. And that's because we paid for the privilege of having facility we wouldn't use, so we're trying to help with the finance costs. We extended out the RCF another year through to the end of April 2027. And we also entered into a GBP 10 million facility with Barclays, and that's to help us work cash down. So previous year-end cash was about GBP 30 million. This year-end, it's GBP 23 million.

We're gonna be working harder on that to, to reduce it down to about 10 if we can. The overdraft isn't really on a day-to-day basis, but it's just to make sure we've got working capital looked after. So good housekeeping, I would—I'd describe that as. And then something for your models to help in 2024, touching on the three areas. So income statement, we'll continue to see inflationary cost headwinds. So national living wage, national minimum wage, up 10%, and that affects about 45% of our workforce. So that will come through during the year. And we've also got business rates, which will impact our property costs. So similar to last year, we'll have some inflation headwinds on people and property.

Finance costs, we're assuming a flat Bank of England base rate, 5.25 over the year, but hopefully we'll get some tailwinds from the rationalized borrowing facilities, and as we work through the debt and reduce excess cash on hand. We think moving on to cash flow, we think the high cash conversion rate will continue, so at least 80% in 2024. There'll be some incremental CapEx, probably between GBP 8 million and GBP 10 million. Almost all of that is Records Management, as part of our property strategy, particularly on two properties. We'll pay down the debt, we'll stay in the leverage range 1.5 to 2x EBITDA. And as I said on the previous page, we'll maintain the dividends.

Just on adjusting, adjusting items, there'll be some residual restructuring, and that's essentially as we work towards the, the margin targets that Charles, Charles touched on. We're finishing off the IT project, so it's probably about GBP 0.5 million to 1 million of that as we, as we work through that by the half year. Then just lastly, on property, so we've just signed a new lease on a Records Management facility, about 100,000 sq ft, in Markham Vale, so that's East, East Midlands. That's 1.4 million boxes, so it's, it's a big warehouse. We'll be moving into that over the next 12 months or so, decanting at least two properties into that. And that's essentially a rent arbitrage plan.

So we'll incur some costs on double running and logistics costs of moving the boxes, anticipate a payback under two years, hopefully less than that. That's part of a strategy we'll be coming back to you in the future. So we'll do that one this year in 2024. We'll probably do another one, if we can, in 2025 and 2026. So expect to see more of that. I think that's it from me, Charles. Back to you.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Great. Thanks, Dan. It's been, that's Dan's first role as a CFO of a PLC, but I've been very lucky to be delivered off the, the finished article already. It's been great fun working with Dan, and I think together, we're really on top of things. Anyway, so I'm gonna talk about the business outlook and the group outlook. So, we know that this business is very heavily underpinned by its recurring revenues. That's particularly true of the Records Management business, and I think we've done a good... Very recently, we've done a good job, particularly on pricing across the group, but particularly in Records Management, where probably real prices haven't increased for about 20 to 25 years.

So when I say real, I mean, you could store a box for the same price today as you could in 2000. So over the years, we've made significant cost savings for our customers, but weren't really prepared for, hadn't really thought through what inflation does to our business, particularly in terms of our people, which Dan noted, we're very much we have quite a lot of people towards the lower paid end of the scale in terms of National Living Wage.

So the impact of inflation, particularly on property and people, has been quite high, and we've now got to a point, I think, where certainly in Records Management, the pricing is now reflecting what our real costs are, and we found it, and our customers have understood that's what we need to do. So moving the pricing up, actually across the business, but particularly in Records Management, is helpful for our margins as we needed it to be. The ITAD market, basically, in 2020, particularly 2020, everybody sort of went, "We've got the wrong IT," chucked all their old stuff out, and in 2021 they did that.

So the impact of that was globally, new IT sales have been pretty hopeless for the last two years, and obviously, the impact of that is people aren't giving us their old equipment, so the volumes have been very low, but what we've seen is actually it's beginning to pick up in terms of the tailwind for that business. There are other very exciting things going on in that business, broadly around working with our blue chip customers, government, but also doing a lot more, lot what we call life cycle work, which is where you supply a service to people from the moment they receive their laptops, we'll load them up, we'll monitor them during the course of their lifetime, and then we'll take them back at the end.

And we view this as a very, very strong. It's called a channel, so you're dealing with the, your customers, quite often the value-added resellers, but, the end customer will, can be. We have a particularly big government contract at the moment, which has started kicking off. So we're excited about that business, and they've got a tailwind in terms of people are beginning to buy IT, which means they're beginning to send us good quality, so three or four year-old kit. So across both of our divisions, we've changed, we've changed the sales strategy, really to make sure that we're focusing on these high-quality customers and higher margin activities. So we've, if you take a business like Technology, without being disrespectful to some of the stuff we were doing, we were in the rag and bone market.

This is not what we're about. What we're about is charging really good prices to people who value our reliability, security, all the rest of that. And similarly, in our Digital business, where we've had these fantastic sort of Digital mail rooms, we do a lot of work for government agencies. We're also in, we've been in the bulk scanning market, which we will remain in, but you don't want to, but that's not really where the money is and where the excitement is. You need to provide that facility, but we're actually, we're more interested in the high quality, high margin work, which is what we're focusing on. I think we've been successful in cost optimization and rationalization across the group.

Dan's referred to Markham Vale, our new, and the impact of that, it's very interesting. We're coming out of two of our oldest sites, which are legacy sites, the original Restore site. And those have just become too expensive. And where we are in our cycle, it's very attractive to be able to say, "Okay, those leases are falling in," or, "We've decided to get out of those," and our storage costs will drop very, very dramatically by moving out of legacy sites, which tend to be inefficient and expensive. And I think that Dan referred to a sort of two-year payback, but also the long-term situation in rationalizing property along those lines is very, very exciting.

You'll also find there are other advantages, that if you're an independent, you've only got one building, these sort of cost rationalization is not available to you, and probably our main competitor is settled, has got the sites they're going to get. They're not gonna change, and you will find that their sites will be more expensive than where we're moving to over the coming years. So that's all very good. There's a few things, the paper pricing and Datashred as Dan referred to for every tenner on the paper price, the impact on us is GBP 500,000.

So if you look at 2022, when the price averaged GBP 230, and you look at today's price of GBP 140, that's quite a swing. Historically, so if you, if you imagine, that's GBP 4.5 million of profit, and that's something which we're aware of. And the paper price today is about 145. We've budgeted it for the full year at about 180. Will it come up? Will it not? That's something we can't do an awful lot about. And we've also seen softness in the bulk scanning market, particularly on NHS contracts, and slower commercial moves. I don't know whether it's because we're leading up to an election.

Harrow Green has got some great work on the books, but it keeps on moving to the right, and particularly a couple of big jobs will happen in 2025 rather than in 2024. But what I'd highlight about these things is these are all short term. Apart from in Digital, where I think, where we will engage in some self-help, the other two businesses, we can't do too much about that. However, were the price of paper to stay very low, the market will change to the effect that charges will go up, to reflect the fact that that's a lower paper price. So I'm really comfortable with our position in Datashred.

But if the paper price were to be stuck at GBP 140, which would be really weird, bearing in mind that it's been GBP 175 pretty consistently on average for seven or eight years, if that price were to stay low, we would be winners, because over time, the service charges will reflect the fact that people aren't making any money selling paper. So that's something we can't do something about. Short term, this year, would it be nice if the paper price was GBP 220, and we were delivered with several million GBP of funds? Yeah, it'd be great, but we're not expecting that, but we're not worried about those things at all. Similarly with Harrow Green, really good business.

Some of the stuff's moved forward, so I'm not, I'm really not. The short term, that's what business is like. You get the odd headwind. These headwinds are around, doesn't worry me. I'm comfortable with our forecast for this year, and I'm very comfortable with the longer term. I won't go into the business cases, although I've probably touched on them, of the business case for Restore and also for the growth areas, but they're in the appendices. There is the extract from the report and accounts, which will explain more about those particular things. So nearly finished. So the group outlook, we're trading in line, despite some of those headwinds.

We think we're going to improve, increase the margins in all of our business units this year, apart, probably apart from Harrow Green, who had a very good year in 2023. Some of these bigger jobs disappearing into 2025 doesn't help them much, so... But in Harrow Green, we've got a lot of, lot more longer term initiatives than we used to have, particularly in the life sciences sector, where we've now built, we have our first orders for our biobank in Cambridge. Our site in Oxford, again, with a life sciences bent, is beginning to trade. We're very optimistic about that, and actually, apparently, we might put a biobank in Oxford as well. Details on what a biobank is to follow. I didn't know what it was, but now I do, and I like them.

So, we're trading is fine. We really like our market position and recurring revenues. You know, this is a really strong business, great profitability, strong cash generation, even in a very difficult year like 2023, we still reduced the debt. As I say, the current focus is very much on improving operating margins and the sort of stretch goal, which everybody is aware of internally, that we're trying to get to 20% operating margins across the business. It is a stretch goal, but actually, in between sort of 2010 and 2020, that's what we were doing, and I've just checked the numbers to make sure that wasn't unfair. In 2018 and 2019, as a group, our operating margins were above 20%.

Actually, you would say, "Well, Records Management, that's pretty good business." Actually, it's Records Management is still 44% of our revenues today, as it was 5 years ago. So we're not asking an awful lot of our BUs, of our business units, to get us as a group to 20%. Yeah, it's that, don't put it in your models, but that's definitely where I would be pleased for us—what I would be pleased for us. That's what success looks like to me. Well, there are other things, but that's a particular thing which I've—which will, I would view as a success. As we've said, investment's restricted in the short term to margin-enhancing activities. So there's a 20%+ hurdle rate on things.

Certainly, that doesn't preclude us from doing things like the property rationalization, where the returns are fantastic and the long-term future of the business is greatly strengthened by them. Certainly, I've got a few small acquisitions on my desk, which, you know, we know how to do them. If we can get these sort of returns, fine, we're very happy to do them, but we're not out there pursuing what's a new leg or let's let's buy the biggest European competitor. None of that stuff, for the moment. Once we've established these decent operating margins, we will have a really good platform for growth, but we're give us time to get there, and we will do that. And then, as Dan has referred to, cash generation is gonna be good.

Net debt leverage, finance costs will come down. This is, there are one or two bankers in the room, as Dan referred to, this is a very leverage-friendly business. That. And I personally, you know, looking at things like weighted average cost of capital, not that anybody seems to really be able to work that out, you know that this, this business can carry some debt and should carry some debt. We're very comfortable with that. So, I would be personally, I would not want us to have leverage of less than 1.5x because that's debt is cheaper than equity, as we know. So anyway, thanks, everybody. I think I'm roughly on time, which is a surprise, because normally I waffle on. If there are any questions, Dan and I can take them.

Thanks very much. Front row.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Thanks, guys. Calum Battersby from Berenberg.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Yeah.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

I'll go for questions one at a time, if that's all right. I mean, the obvious one, for 20% operating margins, can you give us any sense of the route to get there? So how much would come from a market recovery in the sectors that are currently more depressed? How much comes from costs coming out of the business? Would there need to be any kind of change in divisional mix as you see it? Any more color there would be really helpful.

Dan Baker
CFO, Restore PLC

Yeah. Thanks, Calum. The key lever to get to that is for our—as Records Management we know is going to be comfortably above 20%. Harrow Green is a capital-light business. I hope one day they might get to 15%, particularly with a focus on life sciences. But that's a big ask in a business like that, which is labor intensive. So really, it's the other three divisions. And what we need is for those to show they're capable of delivering 15% operating margins. And within those businesses, I think we're doing all the right things to get there. Certainly, there's been a lot of cost-cutting. There's been a change of focus in the sales. We're looking at higher margin activities across all three, all three businesses.

So if I took DataShred, good business, strong recurring revenues, we've rationalized a lot of central costs there already. We're looking at different business streams, particularly around shredding other materials, which we have done in the past and seem to have been slightly forgotten about. We're looking at buying paper. We're looking at waste paper, rather than shredding things. There's a lot of initiatives there, and obviously, it would be a breeze if the paper price shot up for that business to achieve 15%, but we're not relying on that. So that's so I'm comfortable that we can drive that one towards 15%. Technology, who knows what the margins should be in that business?

I'm very confident that what we're doing there in terms of focusing on high-quality customers, and government, and also focusing on, we've currently switched the sales force. We now have for each of the big value-added resellers, so that's your Softcat, your CDW, but those people, we have a sales relationship, one-to-one, with those people. They want the services that we can give. I'm very, I think I'm confident that Technology can get there. And with Digital, yes, as we, you know, having surplus capacity hanging around for big bulk scanning projects, that's not an easy way to get high margins. There are, there are other ways, other ways to get that.

So that's broadly what it looks like, and all those three divisions have been charged with showing that they can plausibly get to 15% operating margins. And I think all of them have accepted the challenge and have got ideas of how they're gonna do it.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Got it. Great, Dan. I suppose a follow-up then, the kind of other route could be disposals of underperforming areas of the business. Clearly, kind of the ambition is to improve all the operations, but what would have to happen for you to look to sell one of the segments or kind of smaller parts within any of the businesses? Is that part of the current thinking? Is that, effectively, if the business can't get to 15% margins, that would be what you'd look to do?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

We would consider that. I wouldn't, I would not. We used to be very keen on cross-selling across the business with all the sales teams meeting regularly. What we found is that basically the divisional MDs and their sales directors absolutely see the benefits of the fact that this division is running the mailroom for HMRC. That division is storing their boxes. This division wants a shredding contract. So, that, you know, we've moved this pharmaceuticals business, and then they want other of our services. So they are pretty coherent. Second point being, they perform poorly. That is not the time to bang them out. You know, who's gonna buy it? What sort of value are you going to get?

So if it were the case that in a couple of years' time, we were looking at a business that was still producing single-digit margins, then there's probably a better home for it. But I hope that's not the outcome, but very happy to do that. Clearly, I would like. I think there are benefits of being a group, but that is less important to me than achieving operating margins, which I think are appropriate. So if somebody's gonna drag that down, if some business is gonna drag that down, I'd probably be pretty brutal.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Got it. Then last one for me. You talked to the price increases that you now think are kind of covering inflationary pressures in Records Management. What's been the customer reaction to those? Has there been any pickup in churn or kind of box destructions? What's been the response?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

You know, people understand what our costs are doing. It's. I mean, I'm sort of ambivalent when we heard in the budget that, whenever it was announced, that the National Minimum Wage was significantly increased. A lot of my division. Well, some of our divisions that I called, you know, we've misbudgeted because we thought it was going to be a 6% increase, and actually it's a 10% increase. I don't really mind that, because one can go to one's customers and say, "You know that we're a blue-collar business. I'm afraid, you know, this is reality." So, you know, in my ideal world, all of our people would be paid GBP 15 an hour.

That would be great, as long as nobody's cheating—none of our competitors are cheating. So I think you know, we have had very little pushback because people understand that we are doing that. We are good on cost. We pass on quite a lot to the customers, but you can't expect us to sit through this period of inflation and not put up the rates. I think we were slow across the business, putting up the rates, and our customers sort of go, "Yeah, okay, this time. Yeah, we get it." So we have had very little pushback on pricing, but probably for most of our businesses, we've sort of aligned ourselves to a point where, you know, CPI is fine.

We're not playing catch up anymore, which is a good place to be. But conversely, we do have some areas which we are underpriced, and we've been pretty ruthless at going... I mean, some of our, in a particular division for our smaller customers, we put up their prices by 20% blanket and had virtually no pushback. So it's about having the science to be able to say, "When, you know, why aren't we making enough money on that? Put the prices up, see what happens." Put the prices up, nobody complained. Fantastic. Actually, that's quite a good help towards achieving 15% margins in that business.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Got it. Very clear. Thank you.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Thanks, Callum.

Tom Callan
Equity Analyst of Support Services, Investec

Morning, Tom from Investec. I've got a couple. Just on the property rationalization, could you perhaps give us a bit of color on the sort of long-run expected margin enhancement that you might look to drive as a result of that once that's all complete? And then just on the, on the outlook slide, the 2024, of those caveats that you sort of touched on, which, if any, are sort of causing you the most concern with respect to attaining, consensus numbers for the 2024?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Why don't I take the second question while I remember it, and then why doesn't Dan deal with the property rationalization? Probably in the short term, in the very short term, it is a real pain for us to be selling paper at GBP 140 a ton, and it will take a while till we can adjust the service charges. And so probably we budgeted for a price of 180. So there's the... I'm pretty sure the paper price will move up, but there's a sort of GBP 2 million, 2 million hole in the short term there, which we'll be okay with that. But that's probably in the very short term, something which is a whack in the chops, which we can't do anything about.

But in the medium term, with all of those businesses, I'm wholly unfazed by what I consider to be the quirks of the market at a certain time. We will be smarter on understanding that we can't rely on very big bulk scanning contracts to come in, so there's self-help to be able to do there. The paper prices, as I say, over time, the market will readjust, and we're a really strong player in that space. Harrow Green's a star operator. You know, if some of our customers are going, "Actually, we're not going to move this year, it'll be next year," that doesn't faze me. So probably the very short-term thing is the paper price is a pain for us.

It's a pain for that division because they're doing all the right things, and it would be nice for them to just get them the... You know, even at GBP 160, you know, I would feel better for them. So that's probably the very short term. In the medium term, i.e., next year, none of those things faze me at all.

Dan Baker
CFO, Restore PLC

So just on the property, Tom, it's, it's a bit of an art, so you've got to try and align the, the expiry of some leases with, with the kind of number of boxes and where to move them into. Markham Vale, for instance, we want to fill it up with over 1 million boxes. That's probably a year, maybe 18 months worth of work just to shift the boxes. But once you've done that, annualized between £1 million and £2 million savings on that, which is why I said some of that, that sort of payback. It depends how many of the smaller ones we can, we can close, but we've got visibility now of at least £1 million, £1.5 million, hopefully £2 million. If you think about that per, we can do 3 consolidations over the next handful of years. That's ballpark.

I would also highlight in that it gives us a particular competitive advantage, that to be moving out of your legacy buildings now, which for us, are far too expensive. Our major competitor can't really do that because they've done all of this work before, and I look at some of their sites and go, "Blimey, I wouldn't want to be paying the rent on that these days," which might, you know. I remember we were at one stage out with renting space in Belvedere at GBP 3/sq ft, which was unbelievable, but now that space is GBP 25. Well, it's certainly GBP 20/sq ft. So our ability to flex, and I would also highlight there are some quite interesting independents who've got a single site.

It does that they cannot move to cheaper, you know, it would be a hell of probably, they own the freehold anyway. So in terms of our long-term competitive position, this really strengthens us. We will be the lowest cost producer, and I think we've got the highest level of service, and we're closest to our customers. So I think the future of Records Management is really robust. Sorry.

James Wood
Director of Equity Research of Business Services & Industrials, Cannacord

Yeah, hi. James Wood from Canaccord. One on the B2G pipeline, I guess. You know, some big contracts announced last year from BBC, HMRC, and Land Registry. Any more kind of sizable kind of bids out there that we could kind of see starting to come through?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Yes.

James Wood
Director of Equity Research of Business Services & Industrials, Cannacord

Okay.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

But yes, we're pretty active. Certainly, I think with government, it's interesting, the same old names come round and round for different of our divisions that they're pitching for, and it's very interesting. How something like HMRC, we seem to be in pole position for several elements with them. Always have to be a bit careful as to what I'm able to say at the moment, but we are a very natural partner for government and quite a lot of our businesses. That often the struggle with dealing with government is to get them to understand what they're getting. It's a bit like bulk scanning for the NHS.

You know, it is such a no-brainer that patients' records should be scanned, but the budgets all of a sudden disappear for no reason, because actually the, you know, the government of the day said, "Let's focus on maternity," and then all the bulk scanning disappears for two years. But all things like that. The sort of services we provide are absolutely logical for government to firstly outsource, and secondly to understand what value looks like. So I'm really excited about this space.

James Wood
Director of Equity Research of Business Services & Industrials, Cannacord

Okay, thanks. And then, a second question, I guess, the flip side to Tom's question on what's worrying you on the outlook. I think, I guess, where do you see the greatest scope for outcomes in the business this year?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

I think the Technology business. So 2021, I don't think we disclosed how much money it made, but let's say it had 20% operating margins as a for example. And I see that as having huge scope. Now, we've focused on the-- now we're... Now we know what we're trying to achieve in that space, and I'm very clear exactly what we're trying to achieve, which is twofold. One is to focus on our blue chip customers, our government, the people who understand that what they're getting is a will enable everybody to sleep really well.

And secondly, what we call the channel, which is the tin sellers, the Computacenter, although they do have an in-house facility to do this, but your Softcat, people like that, when they sell equipment to the end user, they really need our services to do all the stuff around looking after the kit over that period. So the biggest swing, and we're sort of finding our way there, but the, the, that's where, you know, you can get a really chunky swing coming through. Yeah.

James Wood
Director of Equity Research of Business Services & Industrials, Cannacord

Thank you.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Great.

Speaker 9

Hi, Andrew. In relation to the target investments, can you give us an indication of like, what sort of—how big they'll be? I know the first 18 months, you're saying they're gonna be quite small and add on. Is it possible to give the size of revenues that, you know, those businesses you're looking at at the moment, and what areas?

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Thanks, Andy. There are demographics of some of our businesses, like shredding, are such that people have been trying to sell those businesses for a long time, but they had the wrong price in mind. Certainly 10 years, 5, 10 years ago, they all thought their business was worth three times revenues, and now reality is beginning to strike, and also with the low paper price, when about 25% of our revenues come from paper sales, some of these people, 75% of their sales come from paper. And these are sort of GBP 1 million here, a couple of GBP 2 million there, and, you know, we have a pretty experienced team, and it's been my bread and butter for 25 years, sort of, with small bolt-on acquisitions like that.

So, I think it's unlikely we're gonna pay more than GBP 10 million for something, but if the right opportunity came along. And it's, you know, to be honest, it's, it, it, some of these deals, it's almost instead of having a sales team, you buy the business, and the, the returns tend to be, tend to be pretty easy in those. So, I don't expect us to do a. I'm not looking at things for much more than GBP 10 million, but those, those little sort of GBP 3 to GBP 4 million add-ons, which you know you're gonna get a 30% return on immediately, those are the sort of things.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Great. Thanks, Andy. Do we have any? No more questions in the, in the room. Do we have any online questions which, which anybody would like to ask?

Operator

Thank you. We will now take questions from the phone lines. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind at any time, please press star, then two. And as a reminder, it is star followed by one to ask any questions on the phone lines. We will pause for a moment while questions are registered. We have the first question from Christopher Bamberry of Peel Hunt. Your line is open.

Christopher Bamberry
Equity Research Analyst of U.K. Support Services, Peel Hunt

Morning, Charles and Dan. Just a couple of questions, if I may. Looking at the three businesses which faced challenges last year, which do you see as the most difficult to get to 15% margin? Secondly, where are you in terms of managing the bulk scanning capacity at Digital? Those two things.

Dan Baker
CFO, Restore PLC

Thanks, Chris. I think that both of those are quite sensitive questions. To be honest, in terms of getting those three businesses to 15%, I think possibly the toughest in the short term might be Datashred, because if the paper price stays where it is, it will take a while before the service charges reflect what the shredding industry needs to be paid for its services. So I would say that is probably the one structurally, which it might ... I like this business a lot, but it might take a while because if the paper price stays low, we need to increase our service charges. It suits us compared to our competitors, so it would long term be really good news for us.

But in the short term, I think that, that could do it. I think in terms of, we are continually looking at ways to drive up our margins towards 15% and clearly we need to. Where we have overcapacity, we need to address that. I'm not prepared to say more than that at the moment.

Christopher Bamberry
Equity Research Analyst of U.K. Support Services, Peel Hunt

Okay, thanks. Sorry, one follow-up question.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Thanks for the question.

Calum Battersby
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

You disclosed that Technology delivered a 20% margin in 2021. What are the factors that could prevent it from getting back there over the medium term? What's changed or, you know, and that sort of thing? Thank you.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

I think it would be what it would be if the expected increase in IT spend was reversed. That that's the. And the main reason why, if IT sales globally remain flat for a lot longer, one of the impacts is that the equipment which we get gets older, and at the moment we haven't got the right mechanisms in place to. If somebody's giving us poor quality, poor quality kit, it's difficult for us to make the sort of money out of it that we need to. So that would have, that would make, give Technology a bit of a challenge.

But I think what it is, it's very odd that in such a long-established business, the market is so fragmented and the financial models, the business models, are very different. And so, for example, a lot of our competitors won't charge the customer very much, or at all. They will, the kit that they get at the end of the day to sell is their reward. This is not a good business model, and we have some of that type of business, and it's up to us to move that business model towards charging people as we do services for them, like picking equipment up, like wiping it, like processing it. So, that is ...

So those are the two things there. One is what happens if nobody buys any IT equipment still, which all of our customers are telling us they are gonna buy IT equipment, so we're okay. And then the second thing is the business model which some of our competitors operate in technologies seems a really, really weird way to go, and we're gonna have to lead on making sure how that market organizes itself. But I think we're in a really good space in that business and have a pretty unique offering for big companies, blue chips and government.

Christopher Bamberry
Equity Research Analyst of U.K. Support Services, Peel Hunt

Thank you very much.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from James Tetley of Equity Development. Your line is now open.

James Tayler
Head of Research at Equity Development, Equity Development

Morning, Charles and Dan. I've actually submitted these by sort of online as well, so hopefully they don't get sort of repeated in a minute. I've got three questions, if that's okay. The first one is that the capital markets day, I think you said that the acquisitions made by the previous management team, you were broadly happy with, with kind of one notable exception. I just wanted to check if that was still the case, you know, several months on, that actually, the M&A strategy of the previous management, that you, you're pretty happy with what you've inherited from them. Secondly, again, on previous management, I'm afraid, but they, they led quite prominently with their invest messaging on ESG targets, with some sort of quite ambitious targets.

I just wondered, now you've had a chance to review those, well, particular change in strategy or approach there. And then finally, on the 20% target, margin target, again, following up on that, presumably you see that as achievable, with paper being a bit of a swing factor, but presumably 20% is achievable with paper pricing back in that kind of historic trend you talked about, 175 to 180, that kind of range. Thanks.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Great. Why don't I address the margin question and talk about historic acquisitions, and Dan can comment on where we are on the ESG targets? Yes, I mean, if, if, it would be very helpful for us in terms of our stretch goal of achieving 20% overall margins, if, if the paper price bounced dramatically. I don't really want to get there that way. You know, I would work on the basis that there's the paper price. And it was very interesting, it was very settled between 2017, 2018, 2019. It's sort of moving around with COVID, and I'm hoping it'll go back to be settled. So yes, I don't really want the paper price to shoot up.

I'd much rather it was stable, and that we could say, "Okay, on the back of GBP 175 a ton, can we make 15% out of this business?" Which I think I'm pretty sure we can. In terms of... I noted there was one poor acquisition made over the four or five years that I wasn't here. Yeah, definitely, there was one poor acquisition. There was one. There was particularly one which I would call unnecessary, and I don't think that's. I think I'm almost more irritated by an unnecessary acquisition than a poor one. You know, don't buy things which take you into a space which looks as though it might be relevant, but you doesn't really fit.

So I probably identified one as unnecessary, but overall, it's not. I'm not sitting here complaining that there was a whole load of... I am complaining there was a whole load of money chucked away, but not particularly chucked away on acquisitions.

James Tayler
Head of Research at Equity Development, Equity Development

Yeah.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

Dan, do you want me to take the ESG or you happy to?

Dan Baker
CFO, Restore PLC

No, I'll take the ESG. I'll take the ESG. Thank you, thank you for the question, James. So, I'd encourage you to have a look at the accounts, actually, which was published this morning. It's got what I think is a very good ESG section in it. I would say that. So what we said last year was Net Zero by 2035. Over the last 12 months, we've looked very hard in trying to get our arms around what Scope 3 is, and having done that, we've realized it's actually pretty hard to influence Scope 3 in sufficient time to get there by 2035, and I think we're not alone in realizing that. So what we're now saying is Scope 1 and 2 by 2035, Scope 3 by 2050.

And we are really starting to operationalize those, the levers we need to pull. So if you look at what's in our control, fleet's within our control, within Scope 1. Now, there is some technological issues around, you know, moving some of our larger vehicles to EVs, for instance, but we're starting now to embed that into our actions, and I think when we'll come back to you in a year's time, we'll have more concrete actions that we're taking. Scope 2, you know, electricity, for instance, is one of our biggest elements in there. We'll be Net Zero on electricity by the end of this year.

So you know, I'm confident now we're starting to get our arms around it properly, but having looked at Scope 3, that's the one where we've moved back to 2050. I focused on E, 'cause I'm guessing that's where most of your question is, but hopefully that

James Tayler
Head of Research at Equity Development, Equity Development

Yeah. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. Yeah, that's really helpful. Thanks, Dan.

Charles Bligh
CEO, Restore PLC

James, thanks very much, and thanks, everybody.

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