Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to ASM Investor Day. Thanks for joining us today. It's great to see so many familiar faces today in the room. My name is Victor Bareño. I'm the Head of Investor Relations. Also, a warm welcome to everyone on the webcast. A few housekeeping items. In case of emergency, we will have emergency exits here on the left and in the back of the room, and in an emergency, please follow the instructions of the hotel staff. Kindly mute your phones, put them to silent, and let's now have a look at the program, so we will start with our CEO, Hichem M'Saad, who will talk about strategy and our priorities throughout 2030. Hichem will be followed by Vamsi Paruchuri, our Corporate VP of Technology Innovation and Market Research. He will talk about the market outlook and technology inflections.
Vamsi will be followed by Jason Foster, our Corporate VP of the Spares and Services Business Unit. He will talk about growth and innovation in our services. After the break, we will continue with Eric Shero. He will talk about ALD technologies and a number of exciting new applications. Next, Paul Verhagen, our CFO. He will provide a financial update and present the targets for 2030. Hichem M'Saad will wrap up the presentations, and then we will open the floor for Q&A for questions from the audience here in the room with all five presenters back on the stage. I have to show you the forward-looking statements. Very important because today's presentations will contain forward-looking information about future business and results. The event today will be webcast.
Recording of the webcast will be available shortly after the end of the program on the Investor Day website, as well as the presentations. With that, let's get started. Please join me in welcoming Hichem M'Saad to the stage.
Thank you very much, Victor. And I would like to welcome each one of you in our third Investor Day meeting. We had our first one during COVID in Amsterdam in 2021. And the second one we had in just a very beautiful setting. Today, we have a very full agenda. We're going to talk technology. We're going to talk marketing. We're going to talk sustainability. And we're going to talk about our projection, business projection, and also all the cool stuff we've been developing in ALD, Epitaxy, and other products. And we'll show you how our growth through innovation fits in all of this. At the end, after my presentation, also, you're going to see a presentation of my colleagues. And at the end of my colleagues' presentation, we're going to have our CFO, Paul Verhagen, to talk about our projection for 2030.
But before we get started, I would like to show you a video highlighting the life-changing impact our technology has on the world. So where's the video?
Atoms. Most people don't give them a second thought. They're small. They're everywhere. You can't even see them. Yet they're all we think about. We spend our days bending reality at the atomic scale. And our nights, dreaming up the self-limiting deposition technologies to crack the materials of the future. Like pioneers of the elemental frontier, we work with the materials the universe keeps its biggest secret, stacking layers of atoms so thin they barely exist, yet power our entire world. A few hundred of our layers, and voilà, you can surprise a faraway friend millions of miles away. Call us scientists. Call us engineers. Call us connectors. As long as you call us when you need the smallest matter to make the biggest difference. This is the art of atomic layering. And it's how we stay ahead of what's next.
OK, so I hope that you guys loved the video. I'm going to start my presentation. And the title of my presentation is Growth Strategy to 2030. The key takeaways of my presentation today is that we have delivered on our strategic objectives that we have set in 2021 and 2023. We have outgrew the WFE market. We have maintained, and also, we have expanded our ALD and Epi share in the transition from FinFET to Gate-A ll-A round. We also grew our spares and s ervice business. We have developed many ALD applications, including clustered multi-process applications like area selective deposition. And some of it are actually in production at the 2-nanometer technology node. We are very well positioned in ALD and Epi for the upcoming transition in both logic and in memory. In logic, we're going to have second-generation Gate-All-Around , third-generation Gate-All-Around , and CFET.
And in memory, we're going to transition to 4F² , or the vertical channel transistor, and 3D DRAM. We also have developed AI and ML technology on our common platform. And this AI/ML is becoming very important. And we use it for two applications. One, to speed up the innovation for our customer. And two, to help in addressing HVM concerns. Another thing that we're really very excited about is advanced packaging. We think advanced packaging is another midterm growth area for ASM. Application in advanced packaging will benefit from the chemistry know-how, the interface know-how, and the surface know-how that we have developed for the past few years. To scale our company, as you guys know, we've been growing, doubling growth every four to five years. To scale our company, we actually focus on talent development. We try to develop talent for our new products.
We also focus on product commonality to make sure that all our products can have the same platform, and also on flexible manufacturing footprint, especially in this day and age where tariffs are a concern, and also we have upgraded our ERP and PLM systems for improved operational efficiency so that we can become much more profitable. Sustainability is also a very key part of our DNA, and we use sustainability. It's actually integrated in our way of doing things. That's in a way of working, and actually sustainability is very important for two reasons. It's good for the environment, but most importantly, sustainability is good business sense because with sustainability, you actually reduce the total cost of ownership for our customer.
Last but not least, because we're really excited about the opportunity that we have in the future, we're targeting 2030 revenue of greater than EUR 5.7 billion with an operating margin of 30% and free cash flow of greater than EUR 1 billion. So let's go and see our journey from 2021 to now. In the previous strategic objective that we have talked about in both our 2021 and 2023 Investor Day meeting, we have these six strategic objectives: maintain leading share in ALD and expand in memory, increase share in Epi, grow selectively in vertical furnace and PECVD, grow Spares & Services revenue, accelerate progress in sustainability, and then also drive continuous operational performance. So how did we do in each one of these? Let's first start about ALD, where we will need to maintain our leading ALD share in logic and foundry and expand in memory.
We are very pleased to share with you that we actually have increased our share in ALD to greater than 55%. The transition from FinFET to Gate-All-Around really helped us increase our market share, and here we can show you that our market share is actually greater than 55%. You can see on the right axis the number of ALD tools at customer sites, and you see from 2016 to 2020, we actually have doubled the number of our installed base, and from 2020 to 2024, we have doubled again, so every four years, we're actually doubling our ALD installed base at our customer sites. Second, Epi market share. In Epi, we have increased our market share to 25% in 2024 for leading-edge epitaxy. In 2020, our market share was 12%. And in 2024, our market share in leading-edge Epi is 25%.
On the right axis, we actually took our share of layers, ASM layers in leading edge logic and foundry. In leading edge logic and foundry, this is taking all the four customers that are working on 2-nanometer technology node. We count all their layers. This is really the layers that we have at the 2-nanometer node. As you can see, at the 2-nanometer node, we actually have increased the layers that we have business in to 33% from FinFET, where we are at 22%. Third, we want to grow selectively in furnace and PECVD niche application. Here, our performance was average. If you look into the vertical furnace, we're showing you the revenue from 2020 to 2024. You see the revenue has increased up to 2023 and came down in 2024. Our vertical furnace business depends a lot on wafer analog business.
So really, that's the memory business. And memory has grown to 2023. And in 2024, we came into downturn. That's why our revenue came down. But as you can see, when the market was growing to 2023, our revenue has grown because of the new products that we have in furnace, like the Sonora and the Duo. In PECVD, our performance was worse than vertical furnace. Our revenue did not increase the past few years. Why? Because we didn't have any new products in PECVD. But in PECVD, we actually are more optimistic about the future. And we've been using our chemistry knowledge, where we have developed, I'm showing you here, a new technology called flowable carbon. This flowable carbon film is a film that is actually used in patterning application in high aspect ratio, both vertical, as you can see, and actually lateral structure.
We are very excited about this technology that's actually being implemented for the Gate-All-Around technology node. But we think that this technology has even more application in advanced packaging in the wafer-to-wafer and die-to-wafer bonding. We have said we want to increase our Spares & Services business. And here shows that we actually have doubled our spares revenue from 2020 to 2024, from EUR 277 million in 2020 to EUR 547 million in 2020. So EUR 277 million to EUR 547 million, which really corresponds to a 19% CAGR growth in our business. And the reason we've actually been growing this high in spares is because of the outcome-based product that we have. So what's the outcome-based product? The outcome-based product is a product that actually we guarantee performance to the customer. We tell the customer, we're going to give you this kind of products, spares products. But we guarantee uptime.
We guarantee availability for you. And that's becoming a very important part of our business as equipment becomes much more complicated because the device structure is getting also much more complicated. So I'm going to show you two examples on spares, whereby actually we have reduced cost and we actually improved performance. Our vision for the spares and for the spares business is actually to increase the availability and uptime out with our tool using renewable and actually sustainability. And that's really what we're looking at. So on the left axis, you see how we've been able to use dry processing as an alternative to wet processing. So in spares business, if you have once you want to refurbish a part, actually you refurbish it with water and use lots of nasty chemicals like acids, sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, very corrosive.
We said, OK, let's get away from these nasty wet processes and do dry processing. So actually, we're refurbishing right now our tools with dry processing. And as you can see here, using dry processing, we actually can reduce 95% of CO2 emission. With the wet processing, you can achieve 85% reduction. So it's more reduction. But most importantly, because dry processing gives you better selectivity, the parts that you refurbish actually last longer. And that's how you can reduce the cost to your customer. On the right side, we show how we can use dry texturing of the parts. So what does dry texturing mean? It means you want to put roughness on the parts. Because when you put the roughness, then you have better adhesion of your deposition and it doesn't fall. And once you have better adhesion, then you don't have particles going down on your wafer.
Before, the way you get texturing is through bead blasting of the parts. But once you do bead blasting, you have many issues with defectivity because then you need to clean them. So you use lots of wet processing. With dry texturing, you don't do that. And with it, as you can see, you can actually extend the lifetime of your part. The other thing we want to do is accelerate progress in sustainability, our number five objective. And here, we show you recognition by many parts of the business to our sustainability effort. We're really very excited that we are one of the leaders in sustainability in the semiconductor industry. We got double A from CDP. We also got the lowest risk rating in Sustainalytics. And we're actually number one in the semiconductor industry from that in Sustainalytics.
And then if you look into the RE100, or the Renewable Energy 100, we joined this consortium in 2023. And in 2024, we've actually been able to generate 100% of our electricity with renewable. So in 2024, all our sites work on renewable energy. And that's why we have achieved the Best Newcomer Award. And this year, TIME magazine has recognized ASM as being one of the world's most sustainable companies. Number six, we need to drive better financial performance. And here, on the left axis, you see that we actually have outgrown the industry from 2020 to 2024. So this is really looking into the equipment part, not service, but only equipment. We grew about 20% in our equipment business, while the industry grew by 13%. And because of this growth, we've been able to generate much higher profit. And our operating margin hovers between 26%-28%.
This is not world-class. But I want you to know that during these years, we have spent lots of money into building our infrastructure, especially in our manufacturing infrastructure. So I get many questions from the analysts like yourself. How come you guys have been able to compete to be successful in this business when you have very many strong competitors? And here, I would like to address some of the concerns that you guys have. Number one, we have great technology. And everybody knows technology. We're a technology company. But technology is not enough. Technology is necessary to be successful, but it's not sufficient. And there are many other reasons why we are successful, which I'm going to try to address in the next few slides. So first one, we need to talk about technology. And when you talk of technology, you need to talk about patents.
This one shows our patent portfolio by LexisNexis, where LexisNexis compares our patent portfolio, our strength in our patent, versus our competitor, so competitor A to competitor D. So on the x-axis, you see the portfolio size. And on the y-axis, you have the comparative impact. And the size of each dot, that's really an indication of your patent strength. And it's actually the product of the comparative impact by the portfolio size. Second, we have actually a very global footprint. We are everywhere. We are in the Americas. We are in Europe. And we are in Asia. Wherever our customers are, we as a company, we are actually very close to our customers. Second, we actually have been investing a lot the past few years. And we've been actually continuing investment. And this investment here is actually investing in Dongtan in Korea.
As you can see, there are two buildings here. The one, which is the new building, we call Dongtan 2, but next to it, that's our first Korea building. And this is the new manufacturing expansion that we have, and in Q4 of this year, in December of this year, we're going to have our grand opening of this newest manufacturing facility in Korea. And with this opening of this manufacturing facility, actually, we will be able to cover our production up to 2030 or beyond. Second, we're actually investing in R&D, and here, the investment in R&D is a new site in Arizona. ASM is actually one of the first semiconductor companies in Arizona. We've been there over 50 years.
We're very happy to welcome some of you guys next few weeks in the SEMICON West, which is for the first time going to happen in our neck of the woods. We are very excited to expand our R&D capability in our premier site in Arizona and especially in Scottsdale. We're going to have our opening in Q1 of 2027. We're very excited to do that. I'm personally excited because it's not very far from where I live. The third thing that really we have done the past few years is really to make sure that we take our product strategy in place and to especially harmonize our product strategy. Because we had our products on different platforms. But here, since 2010, we have shipped our flagship XP8 platform. This XP8 platform has been running ALD wafers at customer fabs since 2010.
And we have thousands of these XP8 platforms at customer sites. But we need to get XP8 platform ready for the future. And what's the future? The future is really making sure that your platform is ready for ML and AI. It needs to be compatible to that. So to do that, we had to do a couple of things. We need to make it more modular. We have to put new software in the platform. But also, we need to make sure that the data transfer is actually very fast. So we have to change also our data transfer and so on. And we make it compatible with that. But also, we need to make it compatible for the advanced ALD and CVD processes. These advanced ALD and CVD processes need integration with surface clean, with surface modification, with selective etch, with treatment.
So that's why we took our best platform and we expanded to the XP8E, which has six chambers. So XP8E, E stands for extendability. And I'm going to show you right now how we're using this platform in, for example, area selective deposition, which is an advanced ALD process. So let's take an example whereby we want to deposit dielectric film on dielectric. So we call it DOD. And here, our XP8 platform has three different reactors: Al2O3, that's the dielectric inhibitor reactor, and a clean trim reactor. So here, we want to deposit ALD. But to deposit selective ALD, you have to have different reactors. Here, you need to have an inhibition reactor. You have to have a clean and trim in the same reactor from that point of view. So this is just an explanation about what we do.
So when the wafer comes in, the wafer is very dirty. And as you can see the dots there, that's very dirty. So what we do, we take the wafer in the clean reactor to remove the dirt. And then we do inhibition. Because we want to deposit on dielectric. And we do the inhibition, which really, this is a carbon film, which we want to make sure that gets deposited on the metal. So what's orange is metal. But also, a little bit of it gets deposited on the dielectric. So what you do, you actually trim it. You do trimming. And you remove the inhibitor from dielectric. And right now, you can deposit your ALD, aluminum oxide, on dielectric. You have the inhibitor. What you do, you take it to your trim reactor. You put hydrogen plasma through it. You have carbon, hydrogen plasma. It forms CH4.
And you take it out. And voilà, you have dielectric film on dielectric film, DOD. So this way, and you can see the yellow on the TEM micrograph, SEM micrograph below the yellow, that's the aluminum oxide on top of silicon oxide. So this is really how these kind of, what we call them, advanced processes are happening. The other thing that we talk about is really AI and ML. And we have a very strong program in using artificial intelligence and machine learning in our products. And we use them for two reasons. How can we speed up innovation at our customers, so for R&D? But also, we use them for HVM. How can we keep our tool up and available to the customer as much as possible? And here, I'm going to give you an example in HVM whereby we look for anomaly detection.
When you're in a fab, what the customer cares about is they want to make sure that your process is very repeatable. And every deviation is a problem. We don't want to have any deviation. For these AI guys, they don't talk about deviation. For them, deviation is anomaly. So that's why the terminology of anomaly is here. And if you have an anomaly of zero, that means everything is great. And an anomaly of greater than zero, then there's a problem. On the left axis, as you can see, we actually have been running wafers, like 50 wafers. And on the y-axis, you look into the anomaly score. So as you can see, the dots in the bottom, you see an anomaly score of zero. That means everything is good. And then at wafer 30 up, there's an anomaly happening, which is like 0.4.
And then at wafer 39 or something, there's another anomaly. And wafer 46, 47, you see anomalies happening there. So there's some deviation. And it's really the customer who will set up the threshold in anomaly. For example, the customer said, OK, everything above 0.4 is a problem. It's a big problem. I need to stop the tool. But if the anomaly is less than 0.4, this is just an example, then the tool is OK. The yield is still OK. So the way our software works is that you can really choose any of these anomalies in the data. And you want to find out what gives rise to these anomalies. And here, we're showing you the five top contributors to the anomaly. That means you really immediately in the software, you just press the button.
It tells you, whoa, sensor number one is the problem that has the highest problem. The sensors here are actually the process parameter. In a reactor like ourselves, running ALD, the process parameter can be temperature, can be pressure, can be RF power, can be flows, and so on. We can have actually as many as 100 of these sensors. If you take sensor one and you look what's going on in sensor one, you can see actually the anomaly there. We can detect very small anomalies. We showed it here for sensor one and also sensor five. With this, you actually are able to help the customer find out the problem immediately and fix it as soon as possible.
So this is like once you run the tool, you can actually immediately find the problem instead of running your wafers, very expensive wafer, and find out later on what the issue is. So we're really excited about this capability. And as I'm telling you here, we're using it for HVM. But also, we can use it for, we actually use it for R&D to speed up R&D. Our success does not depend on only us. It really depends on also our partnership with university, with also research institutions. And we are very happy and very pleased to have a very strong relationship with imec in Leuven, Belgium, with TU Eindhoven in the Netherlands, and also with the University of Helsinki in Finland. Lots of collaboration between them on ALD development. But to win, you really need to win customer trust. Everything else is secondary.
To win is really winning customer trust. And here, we're showing you many of the awards that we have received from our logic, foundry, and memory customer. So let's stop talking about the past. And let's talk right now about the future. What's going to happen in the next five years? And here, I'm going to show you what are the things that really the trends that's of concern, not concern to us, the trends that we are very much interested in. Number one, the market. The market is actually moving to high-performance computing in logic and memory, which is driven by AI. That's really the number one thing. And with that, we see also some changes in the technology. We see things moving more and more into 3D. We started from FinFET going to Gate-All-Around.
But now Gate-All-Around going to second generation Gate-All-Around, third generation Gate-All-Around, and CFET, which is going to happen after 2031. And also in memory, as I talked about, we see 4F² is going to be in production in 2028. And then the move to 3D DRAM is going to happen. But it's going to happen later on in 2032 and beyond. We also see device scaling and DTCO happening. So the device scaling with channel Epi, with the dipoles for multi-VT, which is actually significant business. New metal interconnect, for example, using molybdenum. Contacts are becoming a big deal. Before, contacts were not a big deal. But right now, since you have 3D structure, to make a contact, it becomes much more difficult. So there's lots of contact business happening in ALD. And DTCO, or design technology for optimization. And that's backside power that you guys heard about.
And MIM cap are becoming really key drivers in our devices. The other thing that we have seen is advanced packaging. And advanced packaging, we see the conversions between back-end processing with front-end processing. And actually, back-end processing is moving to front-end. So advanced packaging is coming to us. And we think there is an opportunity for us to grow into this business, which I'm going to talk about in a few minutes. So let's first talk about the technology landscape. This pie chart is a pie chart that was presented by TSMC in April of this year during the North America Technology Symposium. It shows that by 2030, 45% of the semiconductor business is in high-performance computing and AI. And 25% is in smartphone. Adding these two, that means you're going to have 70% of the $1 trillion semiconductor business market in 2030 driven by leading-edge logic and memory technology.
That's really what's important, so let's look here into the logic technology. I'm going to let my colleague Vamsi talk more about both logic, but also talk about memory, so in the logic technology, here we're showing you the structure of the different Gate-All-Around technology nodes. We start with the Gate-All-Around first generation. Production. That's 2 nm. Production this year, 2025. As you can see, there's the GAA area in the bottom, and the interconnect, and you see the MIM cap, so the GAA is very small, and we love the small. Because when something is very small, you need to use something thin. That's where you need the ALD, so don't really get confused with those interconnects that you're going to have lots of ALD. It's mainly CVD and PVD. But some of it is actually moving into molybdenum ALD deposition. But not the top ones, actually the bottom ones.
Because as you go down, this device structure is smaller and smaller, so in metal zero, that's where you see some of the metallization happening, so we love the Gate-All-Around. That's where everything is happening, and then you see on the top the MIM cap for signal. And the MIM cap, you have lots of ALD, two hafnium oxide. And the metal is titanium nitride. And then you move to the second generation Gate-All-Around with the 1.4-nanometer node. And this generation will be in production in 2027. And with it, you see backside power distribution happening. With the backside power distribution, there's also some ALD layers. And then in 2029, we're actually going to move to the 1.0-nanometer technology node. And with it, in addition to the backside power distribution, we're going to have MIM cap at the bottom, so you're going to have MIM cap at the top and the bottom.
Much better performance. And CFET was going to happen at the 0.7- nanometer node in the year 2031. And in the CFET, you're going to have more shrinking. Because the PMOS and NMOS, which in the Gate-All-Around are separate, are going to be together. So you're going to have the PMOS and NMOS on top of each other. That's going to have even makes it much more complicated, which we're going to make it you need much more ALD in the future. So I want to just show you this. And this view graph shows you that ALD intensity is going to increase from one Gate-All-Around generation to the other. Let's give you a little bit more detail on this. Here, we're looking into an internal emulation of the Gate-All-Around structure with backside power. And as you can see, we have the back end of line. We have the contacts.
We have the transistor and we have the backside power. One thing that really comes to mind very easily, look under the transistor. That's the number of ALD films that you have. You have the most. You have high-k dielectric, hafnium oxide. You have dipoles and dipoles, P dipoles, that's lots of ALD. You have the work function metal. You have the patterning films in those, which you don't see. But you need patterning. Because why is lots of patterning there? Because the device structure is very tough. To deposit your film, you have to do lots of patterning to get them there because of all the Gate-All-Around happening there. And also, you have dielectric gap fill, like silicon nitride, ALD, and so on. In back end of line, you see PVD, CVD moving to ALD gap fill and in contact, you have ALD silicides.
And also, you're going to have area selective deposition. I talked to you guys about area selective deposition earlier. And backside power, you have ALD liners. But also, you're going to have ALD metal gap fill. That's ALD moly gap fill. So the message here, there's lots of ALD in the transistor area. And we see in the transition from actually the two nanometer node to the 1.4 nm Gate-All-Around node that the number of ALD layers are increasing. From three nanometer to two nanometer, they increase about 20%. And the same thing is happening from the two nanometer to the 1.4 nm. The number of ALD layers is increasing over 20%. But most importantly is really the view graph you see on the right-hand side. Here, we're looking into the mix in ALD layer.
We took the front end of line by itself, which is the transistor. And the rest, that's middle end of line, back end of line. And BS means backside power distribution. At the 2- nanometer node, 50% of the ALD mix is in front end of line. And when you go to the 1.4- nanometer node, 60% of the ALD is happening in front end of line. We love it because that's where we are the strongest. So when we go from 2- nanometer to 1.4- nanometer technology node, our ALD market share does increase because the increase is happening in our neck of the woods. Let's now talk about advanced packaging. In advanced packaging, as I mentioned earlier, there's a convergence between back end of line, back end processing, and front end processing. Not back end processing. Back end processing and front end processing.
Here, we look into the wafer fab equipment for advanced packaging from 2025 to 2030. As you can see, the market doubles from EUR 5.6 billion to about EUR 11.5 billion in 2030. Significant growth of about 15% CAGR. Let's look into the 2030 market segmentation. This actually data for the market segmentation is data from both TechInsights and also our analyst. When we talk about advanced packaging, everybody talks about bonding. But maybe we're missing it. The biggest business in advanced packaging is PVD. The second biggest is ECP. ECP and PVD, what do they do? They deposit metal. That's really why you need to have packaging. You need to get the signal going from the CPU to the GPU to the DRAM. The signal needs to go to the metal. It goes with electron.
The electron becomes hot when you have electron movement. You have collision. It becomes very hot. That's why in advanced packaging, we talk about heat dissipation. Because electrons are moving into the metal. So 40% of material or 40% of the market in advanced packaging is actually metal deposition. Then you see next etch. You see CVD. You see lift-off. You also see wafer-to-wafer bonding and die-to-wafer bonding. We, as a company, play in the CVD because we have PECVD. We play in ALD 3%. We also play in the surface preparation, which we have knowledge about. We have product in that area. Because in surface preparation, you need to make the surface clean. You need to modify the hydrophobicity, the hydrophilicity of the surface so that you can have much better bonding, pretty much. So much better adhesion. So 15%.
If you add 3 of 3 and 9, that's 15%. So right now, actually, we cover 15% of the SAM for advanced packaging. And we're looking to extend our SAM to greater than 30% of the TAM by 2030. So looking ahead to what's next for us for 2030. I showed you that the technology is moving. I showed you what we've been doing. And what's our new strategic objective for 2030? Number one in our strategic objective is to grow our ALD business. We need to maintain our leading share in ALD for logic and grow share in DRAM and HVM. ALD intensity is expanding. We are an ALD company. And our number one focus is really ALD. How are we going to be able to achieve that? We still need to continue our innovation in new materials, in new chemistry.
But also having AI and ML to help our customer speed up innovation and also make sure that the tools in manufacturing are working very well. Second objective is we want to continue to grow in Epitaxy. And the way we need to grow there is to capture new Epi layers in both logic and also in DRAM, especially high-performance DRAM. Third, we want to grow our application into advanced packaging, like I talked right now. We have PECVD. We're working on PECVD films, TEOS, SiCN, high-k films, et cetera, et cetera, ALD, and surface prep. Number four priority for us is to grow high-value outcome-based services. You're going to have a very cool presentation later on by my colleague Jason Foster about our service business. Service business is becoming very important for ASM. As you have seen, we have actually doubled our revenue in the last two years.
But we have many more products in this part of the business. Why? The reason? Because as the technology becomes more complicated by going to 3D, as our ALD layers become thinner and thinner, every monolayer matters. So we're actually going into the angstrom-level accuracy in deposition. With the angstrom-level accuracy, you need micron accuracy into your tool. Before, in the tool, you can actually put something. You can put a part. And with your eye, you can position it with your part. That's what we call with the eye, you get millimeter-level accuracy in part placement. When you go to angstrom, when you need to have angstrom-level precision into your ALD film, that doesn't work anymore. You need to go to micron-level accuracy. And you can only achieve micron-level accuracy with automation. So there's lots of automation in the service business, among others.
Our fifth priority is to accelerate progress in sustainability. As you have seen, we have a very good program in sustainability that we have achieved the last five years. But it's not enough. The most important part of sustainability is actually in the product sustainability. And as we go into 3D devices, we're using much more deposition. When you use much more deposition, it means you're using much more chemicals. We need to reduce these chemical usage. We need to make our processes much more efficient. And we need to recycle those chemicals. It's good for the environment. But most importantly, it's actually good business sense because it reduces the cost to your customer and makes you much more competitive. Last but not least, we need to continue in our operational efficiency, our operational excellence. We need to be flexible in our footprint, both on manufacturing and also on R&D.
And it's very important right now because of all the geopolitical issues that's happening. We need to be flexible. We need to be ready to move anywhere. And that's really what we have done the past few years in our infrastructure. But also with this, we need to achieve a very strong financial performance to our customer. Yes, we have 28% operating profit right now. But that's not enough. That's why our target in 2030 is actually to achieve 30% operating profit. And because we are so excited about all the opportunity there is in both ALD and Epitaxy, we are willing to say that we can achieve over EUR 5.7 billion in revenue by 2030. Thank you very much for your time. So let's go right now and have Dr. Vamsi Paruchuri talk to you about all the opportunity and growth area that we will have. Thank you, guys.
Thanks, Hichem. So today, my name is Vamsi Paruchuri. I'm the Corporate Vice President for Technology Innovation and Market Research at ASM. So Hichem slightly touched on the shifting landscape in the semiconductors. So today, in my presentation, or the next 20 minutes or so, I will show you how technology inflections are transforming the semiconductor landscape, creating new opportunities for innovation and growth. And most importantly, of course, how ASM is positioned to lead these changes going forward. So first, the key takeaways, essentially secular growth trends. The semiconductor market is facing very strong growth trends with indications to reach $1 trillion by 2030. I think this is not new news. Everybody in this room should be aware of that, more or less, with the news cycle that's going on every day surrounding AI and other technologies.
But the most important thing here is that this market growth is essentially driven by leading-edge logic and DRAM technologies. So that's the important point where it comes to for ASM. Secondly, this logic and DRAM technology scaling is increasingly dependent on materials and adoption of more complex 3D structures. So dimensional scaling has slowed down. So essentially, any performance you want to get, you have to go either 3D or you need new materials to drive the performance of these technologies, both in logic as well as increasingly in DRAM as well. And then the third is, so based on these trends, we expect the ALD to outgrow the WFE market, wafer fab equipment market. It has been outgrowing the WFE market. And it will continue to outgrow the WFE market within the time frame that we are talking about.
The ALD single wafer market will reach $5.1 billion-$6.1 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 9%-13%. Similarly, Epi is going to play a very strong role as well in these leading-edge technologies. Used to be predominantly in logic foundry. But going forward, we see Epi playing a very critical role in DRAM scaling as well, as we see some of the new inflections coming into play in the very near future. And it will also drive a very strong growth in the market of single wafer Epi to $2.5 billion-$3.2 billion by 2030. Also, coincidentally, a CAGR of 9%-13%. But most importantly, it will have a higher CAGR in the leading-edge Epi segments, essentially.
So putting all that together, from being an ALD company focused on logic foundry, we are very excited as we see the opportunities going forward to see that we are now having ALD and Epi growth driving both in logic foundry as well as in DRAM going forward. And that presents us a very significant SAM increase, combining the ALD and Epi opportunities. We see from 2-nanometer Gate-All-Around to the second generation or the 1.4-nanometer Gate-All-Around , we see an opportunity of $450 million-$500 million SAM. That's the nodal revenue increase. So that's for every 100 wafer starts per month that we'll see. And also, the second and most also very important is the growth in DRAM. DRAM, as it transitions from 6F² to 4F² cell architecture.
Also, importantly, the planar CMOS, which used to be planar high-k gate, will transition to FinFET high-k gate. That will drive a huge opportunity in SAM increase. Combining both those transitions or the inflections in DRAM technologies, 6F² to 4F², as well as planar transition from CMOS planar to CMOS FinFET, we see a total SAM increase of $ 400 million-$ 450 million opportunity for us as nodal revenue growth. This will be over multiple nodes from D1b to D0b as the different companies transition over the time frame. That's the opportunity that we see in front of us. Also, Hichem talked about advanced packaging. Advanced packaging is another growth area for us that we are targeting, especially because we see with the advanced packaging roadmap moving to finer features in the TSV and finer structures.
We see a lot of opportunity where chemistry innovation and surface preparation, where ASM has excelled at in the past in the leading-edge technologies of logic foundry, they come into play in the advanced packaging as well going forward. And with that, where we excel, we intend to fully utilize those opportunities and go after those opportunities with advanced packaging as well. So now let's take a look at industry. So let's dive deep into how the semiconductor industry is being driven in the next few nodes. So we all know about the AI transformation that is happening, the growth of AI, how the market is developing for that. But if you look at the underlying technologies of the data centers that AI is building and all, it's essentially the leading-edge logic foundry technologies and the memory technologies that go into these data centers.
And if you look further, zoom into what is driving those things, it's the logic technologies and the memory, especially DRAM technologies, that drive these markets going forward. So if we zoom further, these technologies have now, so what is the building block? The smallest building block that is driving the biggest AI revolution is essentially the monolayers that comprise of these gate -all-around devices, the DRAM transistors that is going to be the driver behind all these markets. And that's where leading-edge logic foundry and DRAM technologies are becoming very important to fuel this growth going into 2030. So with that in perspective, Hichem touched on this again. The market is essentially focused on 70% of the market is focused on leading-edge logic foundry and memory technologies.
And by focusing on these areas, which are in line with where ASM has been predominant, is essentially placing us for growth in the highest growth areas of the market as well. So we are well aligned from that perspective to march down the growth path. So now let's look at briefly the logic technology roadmap. So I'll briefly spend some time on the logic technology and the DRAM technology before going into the opportunities. So in logic, FinFET was introduced in 2012 into high-volume manufacturing. And then it has given a few generations of it for the last 12, 13 years, which means that there was some dimensional scaling going on, which helped with the technology forward. And now we are in the Gate-A ll-Around device being introduced this year, 2025, in high-volume manufacturing.
And Gate-A ll-Around provides better scalability as well as better performance, hence the transition to Gate-A ll-Around. We see a few more generations of that happening from 2-nanometer to 1.4-nanometer to 1-nanometer entering into the sub-nanometer or the angstrom era of technologies going forward. And then the last part is the CFET, where the horizontal scaling completely is hitting a plateau. And then we go vertical with respect to the CMOS structures being placed on top of each other. And that is called the complementary FET or the CFET, which will happen in early 2030s. So if you look at these transitions from FinFET to Gate-A ll-Around to CFET, these are not just small transitions in geometry. They present a leap of complexity in process integration, a leap in materials that needs to drive this, as well as geometries.
All these transitions present big inflection points for opportunities, especially when you are focused on atomic scale process where every monolayer matters. Similarly, in DRAM technology, 6F² architecture is the current architecture. It's more planar architecture with capacitor built on top of it. Bit line and word line are more in the planar dimensions with capacitor on top of it. And also, most importantly shown is the top part is the DRAM transistor with the capacitor. The bottom part is the periphery. They are not on top of each other. That's why it's intentionally shown there, them not being connected. They are next to each other on the same plane. Going forward, we'll transition to 4F² architecture. Also, at the same time, these two DRAM transistor and the CMOS periphery being next to each other will come on top of each other.
And that drives a lot of new opportunities for us. And that also enables the transition from, in the periphery, the transition from planar to FinFET devices going forward. And that will continue for a few generations before 3D DRAM, which is equally exciting opportunity from a deposition point of view when the 3D DRAM comes into picture. And that's more like a 3D NAND where deposition will play a huge role going forward when that happens in the 2030s. So with that said, now let's move into the markets. So this is a graph sourced from TechInsights. And this is the basis of our modeling that we have going forward for the numbers that I will show in the rest of my presentation. So the most important thing to take away is $155 billion market in 2030 for wafer fab equipment.
The wafer fab equipment revenues or wafer fab equipment spent by segment is shown here. Again, logic foundry showing the largest growth and with sustained growth in DRAM as well. Before I go into the future, let's see where we are baselining ourselves right now with respect to the ALD market as well as leading-edge Epi market. Hichem touched on this. We are at greater than 55% of ALD single wafer ALD market share now. The total single wafer ALD market share, we have more than 55% of it in 2024. We have more than 25% of leading-edge Epi market. That's leading-edge logic foundry as well as DRAM. The most important part here is essentially we have maintained, and this is very important, we have maintained our leading ALD market share in transition from FinFET to Gate-A ll-Around.
That's a step function increase in ALD. We have maintained our lead in the ALD transition from FinFET to Gate-All-Around. We also grew Epi market share. Then key point there is that we are now the DTOR or PTOR for all GAA channel layers, whereas only one company was using it previously in FinFET. Now every company uses channel layers. We are the PTOR for one of those layers. Now leaping forward, let's dive a bit more into the technology inflections that drive the single wafer ALD and Epi markets. The market we see as growing from $3 billion to $5.1 billion-$6.1 billion in 2030 with a CAGR of between 9%-13% against a WFE CAGR of 6%, as I have shown in the previous slide. The growth drivers are one, increased number of layers in the technology.
So as you go from 2-nanometer to 1.4-nanometer, the number of layers increases. And similarly, from 1.4 to 1-nanometer, the number of layers increases. Same for DRAM inflections that I talked about and will touch on subsequently as well in the next few slides. But also, most importantly, as the geometries become more complex, the deposition complexity also goes up. So now it's a compounding effect between the number of layers going up and the complexity of deposition going up. So it means there's more opportunity, basically, for every single layer. And by 2030, our outlook is to our target is to maintain, still maintain a market share of greater than 55% in the single wafer ALD market while maintaining leading share in logic foundry, but also, more importantly, going forward, gaining share in memory, specifically DRAM.
Now looking at the Epi market, essentially the market is going to be $2.5 billion-$3.2 billion per our estimate, going up from $1.5 billion in 2024. Similar CAGR, 9%-13%. But the growth now is also coming from not just GAA applications, but also in DRAM going forward. So DRAM from 6F² to 4F² , there are opportunities from planar to FinFET. There are opportunities for Epi. So those are the things that will drive the market expansion for Epi. So if we look deeper into the logic foundry segment, we have, first of all, I want to baseline going from FinFET to Gate-A ll-Around 2-nanometer device. We have forecasted back in 2023 that we'll have a SAM increase of $400 million.
And we can now confirm that with 2-nanometer GAA ramping across all customers, we can now confirm that our nodal SAM increase is within that range. So positively delivered on our forecast from back in 2023. And I would like to reemphasize, we at least maintain share in ALD and gain share in Epi through this transition. So we have, with the opportunities increasing, we are also increasing our market share, maintaining the share in ALD and gaining share in Epi through this transition. And if we look at the forward-looking from GAA to 2-nanometers to 1.4-nanometers, we are forecasting from our analysis an additional $450 million-$500 million nodal SAM increase. So it's incremental to the $400 million SAM increase that we saw from FinFET to GAA. And we see the continuous transition, continuous growth of opportunity in the transition from 2-nanometer to 1.4-nanometers going forward.
These are the number of all the layers that are included in this analysis. It's either a higher number of layers, it's more complexity included, or it's the same layers that are included here. Also processing on the wafer front side as well as wafer back side. If you look at what this means and where the growth is coming from, let's just look at the 2-nanometer is on the left side. The 1.4-nanometer fabrication steps are shown on the right side. This is the GAA process that we are seeing right now. That is the most complex, as Hichem said. The smaller the feature sizes, the greater the opportunity for us. Once that is in front end of line, there is a lot more complexity there, more ALD layers being added.
Once you proceed beyond the contacts and the first-level interconnects, it's spacious, wide features. The same things get ported over from the previous technologies and goes on. The action really happens at the transistor level where there is no space and you need more complexity introduced to make the things work. You just saw that the wafer got flipped after the front side processing is done. Then the back side power is put in place. Now the wafer is flipped again for the back side contact. That's the final structure. This shows how the 1.4-nanometers is. I have all the layers listed for what's changing from 2-nanometers to 1.4-nanometers. Again, not everything is new. It's increased, more complex, or new layers. Everything is included in this analysis.
So if we look at the ALD layer count by node, just to give you guys what is in this analysis. From 2-nanometer to 1.4-nanometer, we still see equivalent growth of ALD layers. Just layers count, this is. And the mix of layers is essentially 60% still happening in front end of line. Front end of line is basically from silicon wafer all the way to the first contacts. And then everything else is either middle of the line, back end of line, or back side. And that's about 40% of the total layers. Then again, when we go into the third generation and CFET, we see continued growth in ALD and Epi intensity. I'm not going into specific details right now, sticking to the time horizon that we have till 2030. Similarly, we see DRAM, a lot of opportunities, accelerated opportunities in leading-edge DRAM.
And that's essentially driven by what's happening with the inflection. So this is the 6F² , as I mentioned before. The top part is the cell DRAM cell and the capacitor. The bottom part is the CMOS periphery. And if we just focus on what will happen, the first inflection that is going to happen is essentially the transistor part is going to change from the 6F² to 4F² . That is essentially going vertical in DRAM cell, essentially, the DRAM transistor. So which means you will have to create a channel that is conducting, which can be grown Epi channel. And then you will also have ALD layers for the bit line and word line deposition.
And essentially additional processes for channel Epi, contact Epi, ALD oxides for low temperature because now we are doing capacitor first, ALD directly gap fill to make the structure stand in the vertical fashion that they need to. And also new metals that will come into play in back gate and front gate devices. So the DRAM transistor is fundamentally changing as you go from 6F² to 4F². And the next set of transition happens from planar to CMOS. This is something that we have lived before in the logic technology. And that was when actually ASM started to gain a lot of market when that happened in the logic technology. And those are the same opportunities that are now coming back in the DRAM with the transition from planar to FinFET CMOS in the periphery.
If we put all that together for just the FinFET planar to FinFET, these are the opportunities, same material, same set of materials where we have a large market share with high-k dipoles work function metals, patterning materials. And also Epi comes into picture. If we put all that together, what is happening? If we take the 6F² with planar last node, and if we put the opportunities together for both the 4F² transition as well as the planar to FinFET transition in the periphery, we see that we go from where we are in D1d to about adding another $400 million-$450 million in nodal SAM. That's where the number comes from that I shared earlier.
Then in the longer term, as we go to 3D DRAM, this takes another step function increase in the ALD and Epi intensity to make these structures going forward. We see again a large increase of opportunities for ALD and Epi intensity moving from 6F² to 4F² and even larger in the future past 2030 when we transition to 3D DRAM. Last but not least, advanced packaging. This is something that we have set our strategic objective for midterm growth. Hichem touched on this. We have our current SAM of, if you mix all the CVD surface prep and ALD layers, it's about 15%. Why are we so excited about it? If you see the, this is a typical application of advanced packaging for a system on integrated circuit. This is a typical, there are many different flavors of this application.
I chose one typical thing to show you where the opportunities are. So it's essentially the bonding layers, gap fill, die edge fill, which is where some of the flowable carbon applications that Hichem talked about could have an impact. TSV liners as the TSV scale, ALD is what is needed to make those structures happen. So based on the roadmap of advanced packaging, which used to be very large features, not so easy to do structures, but to more narrow structures and difficult aspect ratios, et cetera, and also needing some functional materials to make this happen going forward, we feel very excited about the opportunities here. The surface preparation, the materials innovation, they all come into picture in the advanced packaging as well.
And putting that together, the growth in our current SAM as well as the new opportunities that we are looking at, we intend to double our SAM to greater than 30% by 2030. So that's our objective. And then I just leave you with the key takeaways again. Very excited about what is in front of us, both from a circular big picture and market semiconductors-wise, the growth is going to be there. And also for ASM, where we are leading in the leading-edge logic foundry and the new opportunities that are coming from DRAM side, which plays into our strengths more or less, it drives us towards a good growth area and a lot of continued opportunities as we look forward to 2030 and even beyond. It's even better. So that's all I would leave with here.
I will hand over to my colleague Jason Foster to talk about our innovations in services.
Thank you, Vamsi. Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to meet you. My name is Jason Foster. I'm the Corporate Vice President and Head of our Spares and Service Organization. I'm also responsible for the Global Quality Organization at ASM, as well as the Technical Training Center at ASM. I'm very pleased to speak today to you about how we're enabling our customers with angstrom precision through service innovation and automation. Let me start off with our key takeaways. So if there's one thing that I want you to take away from our key takeaways is innovation. Innovation is absolutely required for supporting our products in high-volume production in the latest generation technology nodes that our customers are putting into production today.
So we're bringing innovation to the spares and service business, such as outcome-based services. And these solutions are creating measurable value to our customers and bringing, which drives growth to ASM. How are we doing this? We're leveraging our core competencies in chemistry and surface engineering. So ASM is widely known throughout this industry as being a leader in ALD. We didn't get to that position in leadership in ALD without having core competencies in chemistry and surface technologies and surface engineering. Those are key factors in developing those products. We have a long history in that area. We're now leveraging that capabilities and that know-how in developing our solutions that are used for outcome-based services in the spares and service business. So these outcome-based services, as Hichem mentioned, really our focus is guaranteeing tool performance to our customers.
We have the know-how on how to keep those products into production. We have the know-how of how to deposit those films on wafer in high quality, and we're using that know-how to guarantee our performance going forward. Key performance metrics, such as tool availability and uptime. We're improving on wafer performance, and all that through driving innovative, environmentally friendly solutions. There are two key products that I want to introduce to you today. One is a new dry cleaning solution. This new technology enables 10x the selectivity compared to typical sandblasting and wet cleaning solutions that are used in the industry today, all while driving a sustainable manufacturing solution. And automation. Automation is becoming more and more critical as we drive towards serving the technology nodes that Vamsi and Hichem just introduced, right?
As the complexity of these applications become more and more critical to achieve angstrom-level control in ALD and epitaxy, it requires micron-level precision in part placement within our reactor, and automation is the key to that, so I want to touch on our vision that drives the way of working within my organization, so we're empowering our customers with innovative, environmentally friendly solutions that deliver high tool availability and better performance to our customers. This is really what guides the guiding principles that guides the way we work on a daily basis. Why is innovation required? So as Vamsi and Hichem had indicated, our customers are putting more and more complex devices into production on a regular basis. Very complex architectures such as Gate-All-Around of the two-nanometer technology node plays very stringent hardware requirements on our reactors.
Parameters such as surface roughness, parallelism, planarity, hole dimensions, all of those are critical parameters on our parts that deliver the performance that's required on the wafer to meet the requirements in Gate-All-Around . Simply put, our customers cannot run high-volume production without having a sustainable solution for maintaining those parts throughout the life of the part. We have two key areas of innovation that I want to introduce that we'll touch on in this presentation. Dry cleaning solutions. We're implementing a new technology for cleaning. Hichem touched on it, right? The new technology is a dry cleaning solution that is eliminating the need for blasting, sandblasting, and wet cleaning solutions. So we're going to deliver superior defectivity performance, improve selectivity, and better sustainability by enabling extending the life of our critical process kit parts to much longer. Then automation.
We're leveraging advancements in automation to enable the precision that's necessary to operate in these advanced technology nodes. I want to introduce next the two areas of our business in the Spares and Services Organization. For the history of our company, we've been focused on transactional-based products. This is having the right parts at the right place at the right time to support our customers in high-volume production. Also having the right service engineers in the field to support and sustain our products. That's our transactional-based product lines. That's been the foundation of our business for many years. However, as mentioned, we are transitioning more and more of our business towards outcome-based business. This is where we're introducing guaranteed performance. Again, we're guaranteeing the output of our products by reducing or committing to reduced variation and predictable output to our customers.
And it's where we're introducing the sustainability concepts of reduce, reuse, and recycle in our business. So let me talk next about innovations in outcome-based services. So I have an example here of how we're creating value through surface technologies. Typically, in an ALD reactor, we're depositing film, an ALD film on the wafer. That is the value add that we bring with our reactor. But in doing so, we're also depositing a film on, there we go. We're also depositing film on the walls of the reactor. So I show here a cross-section of an ALD reactor from the life cycle of this reactor when we have new parts. Parts are pristine. There's no deposition on the walls. But as we process thousands of wafers, we build up accumulation on the walls of the reactor. And that degrades performance over time.
I show here an example of defect performance. Defect is a critical process parameter that impacts device yield for our customers. As the life cycle of the reactor goes, defect performance starts out very stable. But then we typically run an in-situ-based clean that restores defect level back to baseline performance. But gradually over time, this performance degrades to a point where we can no longer meet specs. And at that point, that's where the outcome-based services comes to play. This is where our customers go into a maintenance event. We take the chamber down out of production. And we take the dirty parts, the dirty process kit parts out of the reactor. We implement our cleaning solutions, our kitting and testing of those parts to bring them back to as-new conditions.
So we have the benefits of outcome-based services is we have improved on-wafer performance. We're improving the defect control, defect control, thickness uniformity control. Not only that, we provide better tool availability. So our customers benefit from higher operational efficiency within their fab by implementing outcomes-based services. And it improves sustainability. We're able to use the parts longer and reuse them over and over again. Overall, this lowers the cost of ownership for our customers by enabling the reuse of these components over and over again. Let me talk about new innovations in our service technology area. So I'll talk about dry cleaning more in the coming slides. But I also want to indicate that ALD coatings. ALD coatings is a, we are the leader in ALD deposition on wafer.
We're taking that know-how and developing ALD coatings that can be placed on our process kit parts to extend the life and to enhance the performance of those parts. So we're taking that leadership in ALD wafer deposition and enhancing our capabilities of depositing ALD films on parts. Surface modifications. So it's very critical that our parts maintain pristine surfaces to improve the performance on wafer. Adhesion control is very critical. Hichem touched on it in his presentation briefly that how well the surface roughness of our parts are maintained controls the defect performance on wafer. So we've developed a new dry surface modification technique that allows for very uniform surface roughness modifications of parts that is much better than bead blasting and blast technology today. Thermal uniformity control or thermal control is also critical.
In an ALD reactor, thermal uniformity on the wafer drives the performance of the film that's deposited. Our new surface modification techniques can greatly improve our ability to maintain the emissivity uniformity within our parts. So these are two key areas: adhesion control and thermal control through surface roughness control and emissivity control of our parts that's being implemented. Not only that, we have to guarantee the performance of these parts after we've cleaned and modified the surfaces. We've developed novel metrology techniques such as measuring the flow uniformity or thermal uniformity on these parts that allows us to guarantee the performance going forward. So again, our outcome-based services is minimizing part-to-part variability, preserving process integrity, and extending the life of these components.
Let me give an example here of our new dry cleaning solution that is bringing significant business benefits as well as sustainability benefits to our customers and to ASM. I have an example here of the environmental impact. If we simply take a dirty part out of a reactor and replace it with a new part, we're not recycling it. It's equivalent to 1,700 tons of CO2 emissions on an annualized basis in a 500-kit example. If we look at implementing wet clean, we drop that down to 85% simply by recycling the part. Then our new novel dry cleaning solution is, again, it's eliminating blast media and cleaning solutions that are necessary. We're able to drop that down 67% further from our wet clean by utilizing our dry cleaning solution. It's a huge improvement from a sustainability perspective. Not only sustainability.
Really, the big improvement here with our dry cleaning is on selectivity. Selectivity is important. If we take this example, it's a titanium process kit part. In many of our ALD reactors, we're depositing a titanium nitride or titanium oxide type film. Selectivity refers to how we remove that film while maintaining the base material without impacting the base material. So we want to just remove that film without removing any of the base material. If we remove the base material, we degrade those critical parameters of the part. So we degrade the performance of the part if we impact the base material. Selectivity allows us just to remove the material we want to remove and not touch the base material. So we're greatly enhancing the selectivity by utilizing our novel dry cleaning solution, which allows us to extend the lifetime of the parts by 5x .
We have better dimensional control of the parts. And there are no hazardous chemicals that are used by implementing this dry cleaning solution. Again, the sustainability impact is greater than 95% compared to non. And we have a great improvement in business impact by we're lowering the cost of ownership to our customers by more than double. We look at another example here of where the dry cleaning improves. On the top, I'm showing a video of sandblasting. This is where we use sandblasting to remove the byproducts from parts. Following up on sandblasting, we need to wet clean using acids and DI water to clean the part. The graph on the right here shows how using blasting media and wet clean, we still have micro-level contamination. Sodium is shown here in the graph, which impacts the part performance.
So we have to spend a lot of time cleaning and re-cleaning these parts after blasting them clean. With our new dry cleaning solution, which is shown on the video on the lower right, we're able to achieve very clean surfaces after removing the material and not requiring a wet clean afterwards. So it's a very effective cleaning solution that delivers a very pristine part post-cleaning. So our new dry cleaning, the main thing is we're enabling precision selectivity, extending the useful part lifetime by maintaining the critical dimensions clean after clean. I want to touch on the reason why selectivity is even becoming more and more critical as we transition to more complicated ALD films. Today, we're using single-element ALD films. We're transitioning to four, five, or even six-element films in the future.
Simply put, wet chemistries cannot deliver the selectivity that's necessary to remove those types of films. That is where this dry cleaning technique is becoming absolutely critical for our future ALD films. Of course, the sustainability impact by extending the life of these parts. Highlighting a little bit more on how we're accelerating the sustainability impact by implementing reduced, reused, and recycled concepts. As I mentioned many times in my presentation, we are reusing parts by implementing our novel cleaning solutions. Also the byproducts that's removed from those parts can be reused. An example is silicon carbide. We have a silicon carbide reactor. We have to remove silicon carbide from the parts on the reactor. That silicon carbide material can be reused in the industry. Silicon carbide is an abrasive that's widely used in industry.
That's an example where we can reuse those byproducts that come off of our parts. Recycling, of course, recycling parts, recycling the scrap that happens during the machining of parts, et cetera. Reduce chemicals, DI water, blast media, and bulk material. All of this is made possible through our dry cleaning solution, our high-quality coatings, and our high-selectivity cleans and advanced metrology. Next, I want to talk about automation. How and why is automation important? I touched on it earlier. Automation and maintenance is needed to deliver micro-level part placement control. And why is that necessary? It's necessary because of the advanced generation devices that our customers are using. We can no longer support that through our highly experienced field service engineers that place these parts by hand. They cannot get the accuracy that's necessary to drive the angstrom-level precision that's required by our customers.
I show here in the video an example of an Epitaxy reactor where we're using a PM service bot. This is a robot using a closed-loop vision system to place parts precisely in the reactor. Again, we're looking at driving efficiency in the fab. But not only in the efficiency, we're looking at how do we improve the performance of the reactor by better precision in part placement. So again, achieving micro-level placement precision is required for the angstrom-level control that's required for the processes that we serve. Next, I want to touch on our revenue growth in spares and service sales. And it's coming from outcome-based services. So we're targeting continued growth in spares and s ervice business, greater than 12% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2030. And that, of course, we have a growth of our install base that's going to help us get there.
but that growth of our install base is coming from our newer products. As we're selling more and more products to serve the advanced technology nodes, those require more and more of our outcomes-based services. So we have higher market share of outcomes-based services for our newer products that's going to be sold in the future. And by 2030, we're expecting more than 50% of our business in the spares and service organization to come from outcomes-based services. So that's a summary of my presentation today. If you come away from anything, I really want to emphasize the importance of innovation in the spares and service organization to bring the solutions that are necessary to allow our customers to operate in high-volume production. We're leveraging our core competencies in chemistry and surface technology to create outcomes-based services.
We have two key areas of focus for new products that we've developed, our new dry cleaning solution and advancements in automation. Thank you very much.
Welcome back, everyone. We will now continue with the second part of our program.
The next speaker will be Eric Shero. Eric. Victor. Good afternoon. Welcome to the Art of Atomic Layering. My name is Eric Shero. I'm the Vice President and ALD Key Product Unit Head for MX Films. With the short time we have together today, these are the key takeaways I want you to leave with. One, ALD is an essential technology for advanced 3D structures. You really can't grow these; you really can't make these devices without ALD. In growth, as we've already mentioned, ALD is growing at a tremendous rate. And we expect it to grow over the next five years at double the WFE broader market.
ASM has always been a leader in logic foundry inflections, and we plan to expand our presence into memory. Legacy of ALD at ASM is strong. Basically, we can trace back our roots almost 50 years to the invention of ALD and we continue to innovate and keep our ALD technology ahead and staying ahead of what's next and our competitors. We have a new common platform, which has been mentioned, which drives enhanced clustering and productivity. It allows us to couple our surface clean technology and deposition solutions and last, ALD +. ALD + means advanced materials, new chemistries that are differentiated and unique, and technology solutions to tackle our customers' most high-value problems. Okay, so as we look at logic and memory roadmaps, the one thing that you'll see is that the complexity of the device is increasing tremendously.
Everything is exploding up into the third dimension with increasing aspect ratios, increasing surface area enhancement, all while making the CDs smaller, which makes it much more difficult to get chemistry in and out of these structures to satisfy that enhanced surface area. ALD is becoming even more important. Also, there's a narrowing process windows. Our customers are requiring tighter thickness uniformity, tighter composition control, and of course, node over node, the electrical specifications get much more challenging. All of these things are trending toward ALD. ALD is what's going to be needed to move technology forward. Of course, we think our brand of ALD is superior. As has been mentioned, ALD adoption is increasing. For a real-world illustration of this growth, I think we can look at a familiar leading-edge consumer product in Apple's iPhone.
We all kind of generally know from iPhone generation from one to the next what the capabilities are, how it's improving node over node or generation over generation. And one thing you can see is that the ALD content packed into that phone is increasing as well at actually a very tremendous rate. If we look at what happened between the iPhone 13 and the iPhone 15, we packed about a 50% increase in ALD films inside of those two devices. And as we move toward the newly released iPhone 17, we expect it will also have double-digit growth in terms of ALD content. So I want to make sure everybody's on the same page when we start here. So what are the key steps in a prototypical ALD cycle?
First of all, just remember, ALD is a surface-controlled layer-by-layer process that deposits thin films, basically one atomic layer at a time. So interfaces are very important. Surfaces are very important. So what we need to do is we need to start with a controlled surface. So in step zero, really before we even begin, we want to make sure that the substrate is properly functionalized so it has the right groups on the surface for ALD to basically nucleate and grow properly. Now we start with kind of the normal steps. So step one, we expose the substrate to a first precursor or to a first precursor pulse. That precursor reacts with the surface, chemisorbs, so it binds through chemical bonds, and then it releases byproducts. Step two is repeated twice. It's very important. It's the purge step. Now, why is this important? Everything's occurring on the surface.
So why is the gas phase important? Well, the gas phase is important because the way we inject the precursors in the reactor, we need to keep them separated spatially and temporally to make sure they do not react with each other in the gas phase and cause parasitic CVD. So that parasitic CVD is bad. It takes you away from ideal ALD character. So we want to make sure that when we design our reaction chambers, they're designed to have a very efficient purge and turnover of these gases. If you go to step three, we expose the substrate to a second precursor. This is also called the co-reactant, and we convert the surface through this step. I want to note here that this is where thermal ALD and plasma-enhanced ALD can differ from one another.
If we use plasma energy, whether it be radical or direct plasma form, and the reason you do that is to lower the overall deposition temperature or improve the quality of the film by using plasma. So step four is, again, another reactor purge step. We want to make sure that we get rid of the second precursor and any of its byproducts. And that completes the first ALD cycle. So what we do is we just cycle this over and over again to grow a thick film, essentially one monolayer at a time. Okay, so ALD is geared for a 3D world. Now, why do I say that? To understand that better, we need to look at kind of the competitive thin film deposition techniques. The first is PVD. PVD is highly directional. It's like when you play billiards.
You hit a ball. It goes in a straight line until it interacts with something else. That's what PVD is like. So PVD, the material from the target travels to the wafer, and it tends to be deposited thicker on horizontal surfaces to the direction of motion. So the top of a structure, that U-shaped structure, they tend to get thick and then the very bottom, and so it's not what we call a conformal film. It's not covering the surface everywhere 100% uniformly. Next up is chemical vapor deposition. So this is less directional than PVD, which is good. It's fast. But the problem is there's kind of a chemical cloud over the wafer, and your film is essentially dropping out of that chemical cloud and depositing on your substrate. So in this case, we do get some film everywhere. We get it on the sides.
We get it on the bottom, but again, the surfaces that are closer to this chemical cloud tend to get thicker, and we still have what we would call non-conformal growth, so it's like frost on a leaf. It tends to kind of condense everywhere the frost, but it's much more heavy on the top side of the leaf, and last, that brings us to ALD, so it's sequential. It's self-limited. It's non-directional, and it's very conformal, so really, we're basically creating a wall, one brick layer at a time. We're stacking it to create our overall film, so you can see why ALD is really geared toward these advanced 3D structures. Okay, so ALD is an indispensable 3D technique, and to be honest, it's becoming so ubiquitous that we kind of lose track of how amazing it is as a process.
It's not atypical for us to deposit a one nanometer ALD film completely uniform across the 300 mm wafer to within 0.1 angstroms thickness uniformity. And we do that not only on the wafer surface itself, but on billions and trillions of high-aspect ratio structures that you can't even see with the human eye. For some people, it's like, I don't understand what one nanometer is or 0.1 angstroms. I don't really know what these things look like. It's not that impressive. For context, we put it in everyday dimensions. That's equivalent to covering a modern city like Dubai with a five millimeter coating over everything, every structure you can see, including the Burj Khalifa, the tallest structure in the world, manmade, or a city even full of them. We can do that five millimeter coating to within the accuracy of a human hair.
So basically, what that means is perfect conformality citywide over all the structures. I think that's amazing. In three years' time, if that's not impressive enough, the device aspect ratio will exceed stacking the equivalent of 50 Burj Khalifa towers on top of one another, going from ground level all the way into the stratosphere. ALD will allow us to deposit that five-millimeter film all the way conformally. As Hichem said earlier, a lot of people ask, "ASM, why are you the market leader in ALD? What makes you stay ahead? How are you going to stay ahead of your competition?" It really comes down to five things, five takeaways.
First of all, we have a 50-year legacy in ALD, starting from 1974 with the invention of ALD by Dr. Suntola through our key acquisitions of Microchemistry and the Pulsar reactor, through other technology acquisitions in the plasma-enhanced ALD space, all the way through to today where we're introducing DCM and QCM chambers like the ProMinus and integrating those onto our advanced XP8E platform. So five decades of innovation in the ALD space. Second, although theoretically ALD is very straightforward, I just explained it to you in maybe a minute, it has challenges like any technology. And those challenges can be divided in kind of three sections. So first are reactor challenges, basically how we design our product, how we design our reactor. There are a lot of things that can go right, and there's a lot of things that can go wrong. You have to be very cognizant of what's going on and make sure that you design things properly. Precursors.
The precursors have to work in collaboration with the reactor to deposit these ultra-pure, high-precision films. And then the surfaces we deposit on, these are somewhat outside of our control, so we have to take what the customer gives us, and we have to turn it into something that we can control and do very good ALD film deposition. So how are we different? Well, first of all, our reactors are conceived for ALD. We're not repurposing a CVD reactor and trying to make it an ALD tool. Second, our reactors have very small volume, and we have different types of reactors, cross-flow reactors like the Pulsar and showerhead-type reactors. Third, we integrate our pulsing valves directly proximal into the reactor space. Now, why is that a big deal? Because that's just extra volume. You want to minimize that.
You want the valves as close to the deposition space as possible. And then last but not least, we have Tikon EVC plasma control, which we got from our acquisition with Reno Sub-Systems. And that has ultra-fast impedance matching, which gives you less variation and less damage to the surfaces that you're trying to deposit on and around. If you look at next, our precursor innovation sphere has been very well established. That means we have the best network of in-house and external partnerships in terms of chemical scientists, and they develop on real-world equipment. So when they're developing a process with new chemistries, they don't develop it on a lab-scale reactor or a benchtop reactor. They develop it on our actual HVM hardware, which is co-located with these scientists. On the tools, in terms of precursor delivery, we offer the best temperature uniformity.
So you have to make sure that you don't get the gas lines too hot because you'll start to decompose your precursor, which leads to parasitic CVD. Or if it's too cold, it'll condense, and that also causes issues. So you have to be in that Goldilocks zone where you have a very tight temperature uniformity. And then last, in our equipment, we have the highest number of chemical sources. So that enables our customers to develop unique multi-component processes. So some of our competitors have one or two. We have three or four chemistries, which is really necessary for some of these advanced DRAM capacitor dielectrics and oxide semiconductor materials. Last, in terms of integrated solutions, we need to condition the wafer surface, and we need to control the environment around it.
The way we do that is through a suite of cleans, treatment, and deposition products, all integrated on the XP8E platform, which is our newest and most advanced. ASM has the largest and broadest ALD product portfolio in the industry. We cover plasma and thermal deposition in single, dual, and quad form factors, addressing a range of applications across various fab volumes. Our new XP8E platforms are built on a foundation of AI and machine learning, and that allows our customers to accelerate their R&D development times and then also deliver HVM operation, which is key. It's not just getting customers, but it's maintaining those relationships through the quality HVM system that they can rely on. Next. Okay, there's been tremendous growth in the materials and elements that can be accessed by ALD.
There's essentially no limitations now versus in the past where PVD could deposit metals that ALD couldn't or CVD could access certain materials that ALD couldn't. There's no limitations anymore. Also, ASM has developed reference processes for 70% of the elements cited in the literature to date in the ALD literature. So we have these BKMs that we can offer to our customer at any time. And the way we've achieved this is through strong R&D collaboration with the University of Helsinki and our chemical innovation network worldwide, with, again, co-located with our HVM equipment. As Hichem mentioned earlier, we have a very prolific and impactful IP portfolio. That's not per us. That's per LexisNexis. And one of the other things that we have to mention is that when IP ages out, we have one and a half to two patents ready to take their place.
So we're continuing to innovate, and our patent portfolio is growing in size and impact. Okay, so we've heard a lot today about how sophisticated the Gate-All-Around transistor is. And these are very challenging. And with each generation, it gets more challenging, not only geometrically in terms of the space, the spacing that we have accessible for our chemistries to enter the structure, but also in terms of more stringent electrical requirements. So this trend is going to lead to a few things. First, it increases the complexity of our existing ALD films in the Gate-All-Around structure. So as Vamsi said earlier, we have high-k films. We've had that in FinFET. Those are transitioning into the Gate-All-Around structure, but they're getting more challenging because of these physical constraints.
But more importantly, it's spurring the growth of new ALD functional materials and also more passes of sacrificial ALD materials that are needed to pattern those and place those directly where you want. So it's just an explosion of growth in terms of ALD opportunities. And of course, we're innovating our products to go after the technical needs of our customers in certain key areas, that being MIM cap, as Hichem mentioned, where you have metal electrodes and high-k dielectric deposition in the Gate-All-Around transistor area with higher-k gate oxides, VT tuning materials like dipoles and work function metals. We're also going into molybdenum metallization, silicides, hardmask, edge top layers. And more importantly, in these structures, gap fill materials are becoming even more critical.
Last but not least, area-selected deposition processes, which can simplify the integration of our customers and also deliver some technical differentiation that they could not otherwise get with traditional patterning schemes. So more ALD materials, more new materials, more passes needed with Gate-All-Around scaling. In memory, the transitions are also driving ALD adoption. So as Vamsi mentioned, DRAM is scaling from 6F² to 4F² to a much more compact design. In the 4F² cell, the capacitor, high-k, and the liner are very critical layers that must absolutely be deposited by ALD because they're high aspect ratio. They need to be very pure and conformal, and they need to deliver very low leakage and high capacitance density. Also, the capacitor metal electrodes, those will transition over. But interesting, back gate and front gate will require metal, more than likely molybdenum.
And then dielectric gap fill, again, is important. There's an opportunity in 4F² or DTC for new channel materials deposited by ALD. Those are oxide semiconductors. And of course, those oxide semiconductors need new gate oxide materials as well. So a lot of opportunities in the cell. In the CMOS area, for 4F² , they're transitioning to FinFET, which is obviously one of ASM's great strengths. We're the leader in FinFET technology and logic foundry, and we expect to enable our DRAM customers similarly with high-k dipoles, work function metals, and then, again, patterning materials and spacers. In 3D NAND, stacking is continuing vertically. So of course, that means there's even more of a need now for gap fill materials, and I'll speak to that in a minute. They're even more critical. And then the pass transistor in 3D NAND will be transitioning from 2D SiO2 to high-k hafnium oxide.
Of course, ASM will be there to support the customer's transitions in NAND. A lot of opportunity in the peripheral circuitry as we go to 4F² and also 3D NAND. ALD is essential for 3D scaling, both functional and gap fill materials. We feel like we excel in solving a lot of these high-value problems along with our customers. Unfortunately, today, I don't have enough time to go into every film and every application where ALD would be required, but I do want to kind of cherry-pick a few to kind of do a deeper dive and showcase them. Okay. As we mentioned, Gate-All-Around complexity is increasing, and it's only going to be met with cutting-edge ALD. Our customers want to access more VTs. You can see from 2016 to 2027, the number of VTs is increasing.
Now, why do they want to access more VTs? VT stands for threshold voltages of the transistor. Basically, it means at what voltage will the transistor channel open and the device turn on? And the reason why customers want as many VT levels as they can possibly pack is they want to be able to optimize power consumption versus performance. So low VT is for increased performance, and high VT is for reduced power consumption. So they want to be able to target basically every transistor on the device and make sure it's optimized best blend of performance versus power consumption. So how do they do that? The best way to do that, the most efficient way to do that due to the density and the limited space in the Gate-All-Around structure is through Dipole technology. And dipoles are what we call a zero-volume solution.
So, first of all, they're only one or two or three angstroms thick as deposited. But after all the integration is done and the dipoles are driven in, they basically disappear. They don't occupy any space. So it's a really nice solution as we shrink the nanosheet spacing and we pack more density in. Dipoles are really invaluable, and that's why they're picking up in terms of the number of passes, both P and N. But the challenge that comes up is we only have a certain band gap in silicon. And if customers want more VTs, that means the VT levels get very close together. So we need to develop new dipole materials that can span that entire VT range from band edge to band edge.
But then also, we need to be able to control the dipole films very precisely because ultimately, the VT levels are only separated by one or two ALD layers. So we need these new dipole materials, and we need atomic scale precision by ALD in order to shift and have the requisite amount of distance between VT levels because obviously, if two devices have the same VT, that's a fail. Now, along with these dipole layers, there's multiple ALD pattern assist layers that are needed to properly place these dipoles. So for every dipole pass, there could be two or three more ALD passes, which is, again, great for ASM since we're a market leader. So we're advancing our multi-VT solutions with products specifically designed to control these dipole layers very thin and very uniform and conformal over these complex devices.
So if you want to continue device scaling, the BEOL and trench lines, the resistivity of BEOL and trench lines has to be reduced. And customers have already made the decision to transition to Mo in most cases. So our solution is very flexible. We have two different types of deposition: PEALD molybdenum and thermal ALD molybdenum. And basically, when we couple these chambers on our powerful XP8E platform, it enables low temperature, bottom-up, seam-free, and highly productive solutions, non-damaging to the areas around. So that flexibility in deposition technology, combined with our pre-clean chamber, formats depending on whether it's ion or thermal-based, basically gives the customers everything they need and one platform to address not only logic applications, but memory applications with very high productivity and very low resistivity as a result.
Okay, kind of the last key challenge I want to talk about is applicable to both logic and memory customers. It's filling structures with materials such as SiO2 without seams or voids and very challenging geometries. So you can see here, in this case, we're looking at filling a lateral cavity. And of course, the customer wants to have essentially no seams or voids. Now, why do they want to get rid of seams and voids? These are weak points in the film. There's a lot of downstream processing that's not shown here, obviously. So when a seam is exposed to a dry edge or a wet edge, it can open up. And when it unzips, it basically exposes the rest of the device to that chemistry, and it can destroy the overall device. So it's very important to limit the number of seams and voids.
And the way we've done that up till now is using what we call a kind of more conventional gap fill process. It goes through an ALD deposition, then a gas exchange, and then there's a plasma inhibition step, and then another gas exchange. And basically, what that does is it kind of inhibits the growth around the openings of the structure so that the chemistries can get further in and kind of start filling from the inside out or the bottom up. And that's ideally what you want to have. Well, our solution to that conventional gap fill problem is basically to leverage our scientific community, our worldwide innovation network of chemists. And they've come up with a very innovative novel molecule that has self-inhibition properties. And what that allows us to do is basically to curtail or to shorten the overall ALD deposition process.
We don't need that inhibition step anymore because it's self-inhibited. And this molecule is amazing. As you can see, lateral gap fill, we eliminate all seams and voids. This is SiO2. You can see in the lateral fill is great, seamless. And then even in vertical gap fill applications, like for example, re-entrant structures with narrow CDs or very tall 3D NAND stacks, we can get that same level of gap fill with no voids or seams. This is tremendously enabling for our customers. And the great thing is it's done on a very productive HVM-proven toolset, our ARIAS deposition system. Okay, so that brings me to the key takeaways. I don't want to spend too much time on this, but just real quickly, ALD is essential. You can't go anywhere without it. You cannot innovate. Every customer needs ALD. That's why it's growing so fast.
ASM's legacy is really unparalleled. We're not a Johnny-come-lately. We've been engaged and bought into ALD from the very beginning, from its inception. We can trace our roots all the way back to Dr. Suntola's invention of ALD. We continue to innovate. That's how we stay ahead of what's next, clustering. We have a new common platform that allows us to put all of our products together and give one solution overall to the customer. And then ALD+ , it means advanced materials, unique chemistries and technology solutions, and tackling the highest value problems of our customers. Thank you.
Thank you, Eric. It truly is the art of atomic layering. It's not always easy to follow, but it's incredibly interesting, at least from my point of view. I think this one is maybe more easy for you to follow.
So what I'm trying to do here is to tell you what you've heard this afternoon, what it means in terms of financial terms. It's all about delivering long-term value and investing for growth. A few key takeaways. First and above all, we believe our growth innovation strategy is delivering value for all stakeholders. We have updated our 2027 guidance, adjusted revenue for currencies, and improved margins. You've seen that. We also introduced new guidance for 2030. Revenue more than EUR 5.7 billion, outgrowing WFE with a CAGR of 12%, at least 12%, improved gross margin range by approximately 100 basis points compared to what it was, and operating margin points increased or improved from 26% to 31% to 28% to 32%, and from 2030 onwards, more than 30%.
Operating expenses, so as we've always said, you will see quite some operating leverage and also efficiency and digitization initiatives in the SG&A line. We expect that to be below 7% by the end of 2030. And you've seen a lot of technology this afternoon, so that's why the R&D part, the net R&D part, will be low double digit. It used to be high single to low double. We changed that to low double. It's incredibly important that we continue to invest in R&D, which we consider to be our lifeline. And I hope with all the presentation you've seen this afternoon that we have been able to also give you some comfort that it really is. Capital allocation policy unchanged.
As we've seen, I think in particular in the Spares & Services presentation of Jason, sustainability is not only a license to operate, but there's also clear business sense. In 2021, ASM had its first investor day ever. And that was in the back of 2020. So I want to give you a few data points. What we've been doing in the last four years. So we returned cash to you, to shareholders, of EUR 1 billion. The accumulated free cash flow was EUR 1.6 billion. Average return on capital was 36.5%. The CAGR was 22%, basically strongly outgrowing WFE. We had an average gross margin of close to 49%, operating margin 27%. Since almost two years now, 100% renewable electricity, which is a big thing.
And that, of course, has contributed a lot to the reduction in Scope 1 and 2, which has been reduced by 85% in 2025. Unfortunately, not every growth journey is one, let's say, linear line up. There will be some bumps along the way. And of course, we also have experienced a small bump, so we had to communicate this. So I think the key points of what we communicated this morning are as follows. Q3, still very much in line as we updated you with Q2 earnings updates. Q4, unfortunately, is lower than what we expected when we did the Q2 earnings update for a few reasons. One is that the overall leading edge revenue will come in somewhat lower than we thought, in particular because we see a very mixed picture. The customer, some do really well, others struggle a little bit more.
Of course, we had taken that into account, but what we see is just even more of that, which has resulted in a lower than expected revenue for Q4. In addition, power wave for analog. We saw some encouraging signs in the end markets by the end of Q2. We did not plan for recovery, but we assumed a slightly better picture in H2, but based on what we see today, based on everything, orders, et cetera, also that is not yet happening. It will come at a certain moment in time. This market is already seven quarters in a cyclical downturn. When it will come back, we don't know yet, but at least not yet in this year, and for that reason, second half revenue will not be flat. Based on constant currencies, like we communicated, it will be down 5%-10% compared to the first half.
And that has also translated into lower bookings. So also for the second half in total, so Q3 and Q4, we expect book to bill below one. That's what's basically communicated by the bottom statement on this slide. That means for the full year, we will still grow, but not at the midpoint of the 10%-20%, but at the low end of that range. That is our current expectation. And I want to repeat that also in 2025, demand for leading edge logic foundry is very strong. We've seen significant growth in leading edge logic foundry. We also communicated orders actually would increase in Q3, Q4 compared to Q2. That's also happening. So that's all still very much in place. But adding everything together what I just said, you get to this picture. As you know, capital allocation, excess cash returned to shareholders.
On the left side, you see the dividend. You all are aware of that. Basically an annual increase with one pause in 2022 when we did two acquisitions, again, prioritizing growth over returning capital. But since then, again, further increase. And if you look back 10 years, most of the cash returned to shareholders was through share buybacks, more than EUR 1 billion, close to EUR 1 billion dividends, and EUR 200 million through reduction in paid-in capital. This is how the share price developed. In this year, not so good, unfortunately. But still, if you look since January 2020, over a four and a half year period, we're still seeing a total shareholder return in excess of the semiconductor index, but also in excess of the main cap index in Amsterdam, where we are listed.
Maybe the 2027 guidance update, again, it's only an update for currency, nothing else. That brings, based on the U.S. dollar year, you see it in the bottom of the slide, been very explicit this time of 1.17. That brings the top line from 4.5 to 3.7 to 4.6. We've increased the margin a little bit, 100 basis points to 47% to 51%. SG&A high single digit, no change. R&D, you've seen where you want to invest, and it's paying off in a pretty decent return on capital. You've seen that over the last four years. Effective tax rate basically will stabilize around the low 20s. I think more important now, because this gives you a longer, let's say, view on what we think where we are heading, is the targets which are new for 2030.
First, revenue, a CAGR of 12%, which compares to, in our view at least, a CAGR of WFE of 6%. We believe we should at least grow 12%. For this time, we did not do a range, because what happens if you give a range, you guys go to the midpoint. So we thought, let's not do that. Let's make your life easier. So as a minimum, 12%. What is driving that growth? That's actually very important. Then you can also form your own assumptions, of course. First and above all, as we always say, growth for end markets. If end markets don't grow, it's hard for our customers to grow and also for us. If end markets do grow, and I believe the trends are in place to grow, we will grow with it.
The second one is the growth and the composition of the WFE market. So where is the growth? So a $ 155 billion WFE market, if that's 100%, let's say, trailing edge, that's not so good for us. If it would be 100% logic foundry leading edge, it would be super for us. And then everything in between. So composition of the market is very important. You've seen in all the presentations increased ALD and Epi intensity going forward based on all the trends that we see, which is positive because it plays to our strengths. We've added this time growth in advanced packaging. We do believe that there's great opportunities based on, let's say, the strengths that we have and also based on some other things that we're looking at to further expand our SAM.
Jason, I think, has given you a very good view on all the innovation that is going on in our S pares & S ervices business and automation. As a result, we also believe we will continue to see as a minimum 12% growth in Spares & Services. This is, let's say, the revenue in the last four years, equipment revenue. So 60% in the last four years was logic foundry, so the majority. Memory, 19%, relatively small, but we've seen in Vamsi's presentation that that's one of our growth areas. We want to improve our share in memory, in particular in DRAM. It's very important given the growth that we see happening there. Others is basically PECVD, vertical furnace, flowable carbon, et cetera. Where in vertical furnace, you've seen a nice growth of the market coming down, of course, with the cyclical downturn. PECVD, we have not done well.
We didn't grow, but with flowable carbon, we believe that we have a great opportunity to hopefully also start growing that business. In terms of technology, 68% of our revenue over the last four years was in single wafer for ALD. I guess known to you, 13% in Epi and 19% in others. Gross margin. Now we've increased the range to 47%-51%. When you see this trend, it's not so hard to imagine why we did that. We've not been below 47% in the last four years. Also this year, we will not be below 40%. I can safely say that for five years in a row, we've been north of 47%. We have increased it from 47%- 51%. You see the drivers here of margin. Of course, sales price is a critical one.
That goes one-to-one to your margin, improvement or reduction. It's one-to-one margin application and customer mix that also includes China, and as you know, China is accretive to our margin, but we believe in the years to come, China will gradually come down, so the relative share of China in the business is coming down because you've seen two super strong years, let's say, for China, and we don't think that that is the new normal. It will normalize more. Cost efficiencies, I will come back to that. We have quite a few initiatives to improve our cost base. Operating leverage, cost growth in itself will help to improve margin, but gross margin not a lot because the vast majority of our cost of goods is variable. It's purchased material, systems, subsystems, et cetera. U.S. dollar euro, it doesn't help our margin.
So a 5% decline of the dollar relative to the euro, measured in euros, will, let's say, reduce our margin by whatever, 0.1%-0.2% by a little bit. So it's not helping. But the moment when the dollar comes back, of course, that should be a benefit. Maybe to remind you, when we did our first investor day in 2021, guess what the U.S. dollar euro rate was? You're all right, 1.17, same as today. So the dollar goes up and down, as we know. So it's nothing new. What is not included, I also want to mention that, is all the uncertainty around, let's say, tariffs. At this moment in time, we cannot tell what will happen. Today, we're still exempted. Maybe it remains exempted, maybe not. Maybe the impact is big, small. Obviously, any impact we will try to pass on in the value chain.
But of course, that also depends on what the competition is doing. But that's for now not included because, yeah, we just don't know what will happen. Back. SG&A, here we see a steep decline. Already in 2021, we communicated our target for 2025 is high single digits, which will happen. This year will be below 10%, which is good. And we believe we can go to below 7% in 2030 based on the growth that we see, but also based on a number of the initiatives that we're taking to actually reduce cost and improve productivity. R&D, you see here, we made quite some investments in R&D. Again, that's our number one priority to fund. I would almost say the higher it is, the better it is. Given the ROIC we make on these investments, we need to invest to stay ahead.
It's critical both in our equipment business and our spares and service business. We allocate a lot of money to that, yeah, to technology. And so far, it is delivering great returns and great growth. So as long as we do that, we should continue to do that. So we changed our target, as I mentioned already, to low teens in the years to come. And given all the opportunities that we see, all the inflections that are happening in, let's say, the coming decade, I firmly believe it's the right thing to do from a, yeah, ROIC point of view. Yes. Then this is a summary of the financial performance. You've seen the revenue growth from EUR 1.3 billion in 2020 to, yeah, EUR 2.9 billion in 2024. A margin improvement of 25% to, let's say, 28%.
And going forward, our target will be to stay north of 28 and from 2030 onwards north of 30%. Tax rate, yeah, we believe that we'll stabilize around the low 20s. Already last year, I should say, we have seen some impact from this global pillar two at the global minimum tax, the 15%. It has impacted some of the incentives that we get in certain geographies through a top-up tax. That's just a new reality we will have to deal with. In addition, it is also dependent on the relative result development on a country-by-country basis because, yeah, each country has a different corporate income tax rate. So depending on where we make the money, which is substance-based, you will see a different impact to the global ETR, the global effective tax rate. Obviously, we monitor this properly. We manage this as good as we can.
We see tax as a business partner. At the same time, tax, of course, is also contributing to society. So we pay our fair share of taxes based on substance. And yeah, we follow, yeah, arm's length transfer pricing rules. We do all the right things, we believe. And that results in a tax rate of low 20s that you can use in your models. Working capital, we used to have a guidance of 55 days to 75 days. We improved that slightly to 50 to 70 days. 24 is actually, I would say, exceptionally low. And why is that? You will have seen in our balance sheet that there's a huge amount of deferred revenue. And that is, of course, benefiting working capital. But that amount, I expect at least over time, will come down somewhat. It's a large chunk related to China.
In China, there is, for a number of reasons that we can separately talk about, they, let's say, when they put in orders, they only order what they need. They pay for more than what they need, and they keep the credits for spare parts or for a second tool or for other reasons to be able to order that by the time when they need these products. And in that time, there might be no budget for them, but now they have the budgets, and now they want to use these budgets. So there's a big chunk of deferred revenue in our balance sheet. That's the last point on the slide. It's called the higher contract liabilities, which basically means we have received the cash, but not yet fully, let's say, delivered on all performance obligations under the contract that we had with the customer.
CapEx, yeah, a lot has happened here. You see quite a steep increase. So basically, the new guidance that we have is that in the years with infrastructure expansion, CapEx will be around EUR 150 million-EUR 250 million, somewhere in that range. And in the years without infrastructure expansion, between EUR 100 million-EUR 200 million. Of course, in the last few years, we had quite some infrastructure expansion to actually get ready for the growth that we see. We completed Singapore in 2023. Korea, I think Hichem showed some nice photos. We completed that this year, actually. The grand opening is by the end of this year. Phoenix, Scottsdale, we expect to finish that, complete that in Q1 2027. We also still have plans for expansion in Europe, which that will also happen, starting most likely in 2028.
Once that all is done, then we can have quite a few years without the infrastructure expansion, I believe. Then we should go back to a level of EUR 100 million-EUR 200 million. So in the years with infrastructure expansion, it will be potentially EUR 50 million more. Cash flow, you see here the growth in the cash flow from year to year. We expect to be north of one billion. So it's a minimum of one billion that we target, again, based on the revenue and profitability targets that we have given and the working capital targets and the CapEx targets. So you can all model that, including tax. Of course, we need to grow as planned to be able to deliver this. We will continuously manage working capital very strict. We're really very much on top of that with our customers to make sure they pay on time.
We have our inventory to make sure that we don't keep inventory that we don't need, and of course, also for CapEx, we try to manage tight CapEx budgets, but we need to go through this phase of expansion, and we need to put all this infrastructure in place to enable the growth that we see ahead of us, and then this is a summary of our 2030 targets. I think I covered all of them, so no need to repeat them, then maybe just on a few, let's say, capacity and margin improvement initiatives also give some more comfort on the margin development, but also on the CapEx, I think. In 2023, as you know, we completed the second floor of the Singapore expansion, which was a big thing in terms of capacity growth, more or less doubling the capacity that we had in place.
In 2025, we expand further with Korea, which is a mix of manufacturing and an R&D lab. And then going forward, we believe that we have more than sufficient capacity to get to our 2030 target and beyond even through, yeah, let's say, yeah, productivity initiatives, efficiency initiatives, but also through, yeah, supply chain innovation. And particularly MIT, Merge-in-Transit will contribute to that because what does Merge-in-Transit do? It simply means that we don't assemble all products that we ship to our customers in one of our sites. Yeah, we only, let's say, produce, let's say, the chamber, which is also most sensitive from a competitive point of view in our sites. The hardware, the platform is basically manufactured at our contract manufacturer and tested, and the chamber and the platform go straight to the customer. There it's basically assembled, tested, installed, and working.
Today, this all goes first to one of our sites. We unpack the platform, we bring it into our factory, we assemble the whole product, we test the whole product. We then have to, yeah, basically disassemble it again, pack it again, and ship to the customer. So with that, not all products, we cannot do that for all products, but for the products that we can do it, it saves actually quite some, let's say, capacity that we have internally, which, of course, frees up capacity for the products for which we cannot do that, so we have more than enough internal capacity in place to deliver on our growth plans, then some other initiatives. Actually, just two months ago, a little bit more than two months ago, it was a big thing.
We went live, a global big bang with a new global ERP system successfully, but also with a new global product lifecycle management system, so we had two big bangs on one day globally. It's a big thing, but it's working well, so very good to see that since two months now. And that, of course, provides and is a good foundation for subsequent initiatives to further drive improvement, to further drive real-time analytics, and to do a number of things that we believe are important. We've talked quite a lot about platforms, so the drive towards common platforms has quite some benefits in terms of cost, in terms of inventory, in terms of lead times. Unfortunately, we cannot immediately switch every product to a new platform. That would be the best for us, but our dear customers cannot enable that.
It will be a gradual transition to the new platforms. But with that gradual transition, it will also gradually, of course, and structurally contribute to improve margins. I just talked about the manufacturing model, how it, but also further efficiency and productivity improvements that we can do in our sites will contribute further. And all of that will structurally and gradually contribute to 200-300 basis points in the margin, which is reflected in our guidance. So please don't add it to the guidance. It is in. But anyway, so there's a lot of work going on in the background to actually, yeah, try to further improve margins. Capital allocation, no change. At least the capital allocation strategy is no change. There's one small change. Yeah, the cash number that you see is around EUR 800 million. It used to be EUR 600 million.
We just increased it a little bit in line with revenue growth and the business growth that we have. But in principle, all the priorities are still the same, and the priority number one remains investing in growth, R&D and CapEx, but also M&A. If we have opportunities, if we see opportunities like we've done in 2022, we will definitely go for it. And priority four is still, if we have excess cash, we will return it to shareholders. Just to show it maybe also more visually, the purple bar is the free cash flow before allocating cash to R&D and before allocating cash to M&A and CapEx. So you see that, yeah, the bulk of our money that we earn is reinvested into the business.
Basically, in all years, you see it here clearly presented, and that's a very deliberate choice to allocate that cash that we earn back into the business, and to the bottom part, you see the dividends and the share buybacks, which, by the way, also have grown nicely, and then last but not least, sustainability. We have five pillars: innovation, people, planet, supply chain, and governance. Innovation is in the product. It's part really integrated into our product development process now. We want to make our products more sustainable from a thermal point of view, from a chemistry point of view. And of course, we want to make our products safe. That's absolutely critical. For people, we have a number of initiatives going on, one making sure that we offer them a safe working environment, but also we want to engage our peoples.
We want to contribute to society and to the local communities in which we operate. We have a net zero target by 2035, as you know. We work closely together with our suppliers to also drive sustainability initiatives with them. Yeah, one, because it improves, we believe, still planet Earth, but also it makes a hell of a lot of business sense, and I think you've clearly seen that in Jason's presentation. Of course, we try to apply the right ethical and proper governance to our company. Under CSRD, we actually disclose a lot of, let's say, non-financial information, so what do we disclose? What we disclose is based on this, what you call double materiality assessment. What is our impact as a company on people and planet? On the other hand, what is the impact of potential climate change on the financials of our business?
That's called a double materiality assessment. Now, we've done the analysis. We've reached out to multiple stakeholders, including investors. This came out of it. I'm not going to read through it in view of time, but these are the key focus areas that we will report on going forward, and I actually already did in the year 2024. Then some examples, because yeah, the biggest challenge that we have is Scope 3. I mean, Scope 1 and 2, you just saw an 85% reduction. There we're moving in the right direction. Scope 3 is more complex. A big chunk will come from renewable electricity with our customers and with our suppliers. But in addition, we have quite some initiatives on sustainable chemistry, on energy efficiency, and on greenhouse gas emission reduction. Again, it's fully integrated. I'm not going to take you through the examples here.
We can do it separately if you wish. But I think it's important to note that this is a key focus area. It's one of our strategic objectives: accelerate sustainability. And we focus more and more now on the product because also that is required from a Scope 3 point of view. And it makes a lot of business sense to do that. My key takeaways are clear. Thank you very much for being here again. And I think I hand the floor back to Hichem now for the final wrap-up. Thank you.
Okay. I hope that we did not overload you too much today with the 164 slides that we showed you. Okay? But I think what you can gauge from today's presentation is that we are very bullish about our industry, even though there is short-term uncertainty right now.
I think the trend going into high-performance computing means that you need to have more performance. And with more performance, you need to have more ALD and more epitaxy. The industry is moving to 3D, as we showed today. That means you need more deposition. And we are a deposition company. And also, you've seen today the structure in the Gate-All-Around, in the CFET, into DRAM going from 6F² to 4F² to 3D DRAM. You've seen the structure becoming more and more complex. And with that complexity, you need more and more ALD. So we actually feel very good about our position in the market in ALD and what's shown today. And not only in ALD, but on epitaxy and other parts of our industry. You saw today the cool stuff that was presented by our colleague Eric Shero about where every monolayer matters.
We actually can control angstrom level in ALD. That shows really the prowess and the technology, our ALD technology that we have and that we're actually providing to our customer. To achieve this angstrom level control on the wafer, you need to have micro-control on your equipment. And for that, you need to have automation. And you saw that Jason Foster talked about the automation as part of our many outcome-based services. Service is becoming a very important part of our growth in the future because products and equipment are becoming more and more complex. The other thing that we saw today is that we are actually providing our customer with AI and ML opportunity on our equipment. Why we're doing this? Because for two things. AI and ML make sense because it can speed up the innovation for our customer.
It also makes sense because it allows them to keep the product availability and uptime much better. Because with AI and ML, you actually can pinpoint and find out any deviation in your product much faster and much easier so that you can fix it. We also have talked about sustainability and how sustainability is part of our DNA, and sustainability is very important because not only is it good for the environment, but also makes really good business sense because it lowers the cost to the customer, and as deposition becomes a much higher intensity in semiconductor wafer equipment, really reducing deposition precursor flows and chemical intensity is really very important because by reducing that, you reduce the cost to your customer, and that makes you also much more competitive. We also talked about advanced packaging.
We think that advanced packaging is a new growth area for us, and we think that we are confident to really increase our available market in this part of the technology to over 30% by 2030. We are very excited about the future, and I speak on behalf of all my colleagues here today that we're very excited about what's coming, so with that, I'm going to leave the floor right now to Victor to go to the Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Hichem. Thank you. Now it's Q&A time, and we need a couple of minutes to prepare the stage. So one moment, please. In the meantime, we will show our latest brand video to keep you entertained. One moment, please.
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Your questions. When you have a question, please introduce yourself and please limit your questions to not more than two at a time. First question, Tammy.
Thank you. Thank you, Victor. Thank you for taking my question. So firstly, Paul, may I ask you what has changed over the past two months since you updated us on Q2? i.e., did you notice that volume logic spending recovery was lower than expected, or it was because of something incremental to what you heard in 2022 that made you change your guidance? And also, what is the situation today? i.e., is it still not improving?
I.e., are we going back to acceleration control? And the second question is for Hichem, please. So you talked about all the time expansion story, which is amazing. And also at the same time, your market share remains at 55% and above level. Is there anything we should be aware of from your competition perspective? I.e., your market share gaining pace can be slowed down than where you were before because over the past 10 years, you have been gaining market share purely because of you being getting market share from the incremental new layers. Is that changing, or the competition potential within the ALD market or Epi market will be more competitive going forward? Thank you.
Let me start with the first question. So what changed? So when we came out with the Q2 earnings, we, of course, have certain assumptions on Q3, Q4, and the remaining of the year.
Based on where we are today, we've seen a number of changes. One is that, let's say, for leading-edge logic foundry, as you know, there's a pretty mixed picture per customer. Let's say for certain customers, we've seen actually things coming down even more than we anticipated. For another customer, which is still doing very well, let's say the acceleration we're planning is maybe slightly below what we were actually assuming at that moment in time. As I just mentioned as well, we also guided with Q2 earnings that bookings for leading-edge logic foundry would increase in Q3 and Q4 compared to the low level that we saw in Q2. That's also happening. That's still good, but maybe slightly lower than we thought, but still very good and very strong, but slightly different.
The other one, I think you referred to that, Tammy, is the power semi-analog. We have not planned for recovery because although there were some encouraging signs, I think it was reasonable to assume that, let's say, the load that we had in the first half would improve somewhat. We don't see that happening now. Based on where we are today, we can, I think, almost conclude that that's not happening in this year. This market will come back at a certain moment in time, but we don't see it happening yet. And thirdly, although we didn't mention that because it's not that big, but still, it contributes to Silicon Carbide, which is really very low, still low, and it's likely to remain low also in 2025, but was even lower than we already thought. And we had already put it pretty low, to be honest.
So just quite a few changes. So nothing big, I would say. The structural trends that we talked about today are still in place. No change. And yeah, that's really what it is.
Okay. And to answer your question about why 55%, I think we say it's greater than 55% and can be any number greater than 55%. I think it's something that we have talked about before. And to be honest with you, I mean, as you can see and I showed you today, we have gained share in ALD with the transition to Gate-All-Around. And also, we're going from the 2 -nanometer to 1.4-nanometer technology node. But we're not going to say exactly the number. I think I look into the number, maybe see what TechInsights and so on talked about. I mean, they have higher numbers than we have right now.
But I think what we're going to say in the future, always greater than 55%. And we're not going to change it. If we go to 60% or 70%, we're just going to keep it greater than 55%. Because there's fluctuation from one quarter to the other and from one year to the other. But as long as we keep that, I think we're in good shape.
Thanks, Jakob Bluestone BNP Paribas . Two questions as well. Firstly, on China, can you just help us understand what's embedded in your guidance? Are you worried about domestic suppliers taking market share and the sort of impact of restrictions? Just to sort of help us think, what are you assuming longer term?
And then secondly, just staying with the market share, you talked about how for two nanometers, you said 50% of layers would be front-end of the line, and that would rise to 60%, 1.4. And that would sort of play to your strengths given you're stronger in front-end of the line. I wonder if you can maybe elaborate what are the dynamics between front and back-end of the line? So you can actually taking share in front-end of the line and losing share in back-end of the line, or any sort of color you can give us on how that breaks down.
Okay. Sorry, that's fine. I'll take the China one. So what have we assumed? So one that I'm not sure it's a trend, but at least what we saw this year happening is, let's say, still a strong year in China, but below last year.
And that's actually a trend that we have continued in our assumptions. So we expect China to gradually come down. And at the same time, don't expect it to fall off a cliff, let me say it like that. In addition, you're right. Local competition is definitely getting stronger. We see steep growth in revenue of local competition. They're benefiting a lot from the vacuum that is being created by the export controls, where we cannot participate. And it's for them the best way and the quickest way to learn. Because once you get a tool in the fab, that's how you learn. That's how you get uptime improved. That's how you get your product further improved, et cetera, et cetera. So we see that also in China.
There, where we can compete head-on, we still believe we have the better product and even a lower total cost of ownership given the performance of our tools that we have. But we also recognize that Chinese competition will get stronger. So in the assumptions that we have is that we see a gradual decline of China. That's basically the assumption. And then the other one was on share back-end of line versus front-end of line.
Yeah, I can talk about that. I think, as we mentioned, that when you go to 1.4- nanometer node, you're 60% of the ALD is actually in the front-end of line. That's where we have most of our strength. And that's where all the ALD was. In back-end of line, there is no ALD whatsoever right now. So there's no ALD being run in back-end of line.
I think the ALD that you hear about being in the back-end of line, mostly right now, it's happening in the middle end of line in the M0. But eventually, you go into the next generation, the 1.4 and 1.0, then the metal zero and metal one becomes also smaller. Metal two becomes more sparse. And you see more and more of the metal deposition or molybdenum deposition going into the top levels. But right now, in logic and memory, there's no metal, there's no ALD deposition in the back-end of line.
Andrew Hayman from Independent Minds . I was just wondering how you see your relationship with ASM PT developing as you move into packaging, as my first question. And then a second question, has there been a considerable learning curve as you move to outcome-based services?
It's clear that the move to dry maintenance or dry servicing has been beneficial, but has there been some areas or equipment where it's been more costly to keep those machines running to the desired level than you anticipated? Thank you.
Yeah, ASM PT.
So ASM PT is a financial investment for us, and it will stay a financial investment for us for now. You've seen, I think, the pie that I think Hichem and also Vamsi showed in their presentation, where we saw an overview of the total advanced packaging market. Then you also see that, let's say, bonding, hybrid bonding is not the biggest chunk of the whole addressable market over time. Actually, at this moment in time, PVD and ECP, I believe, was largest. So today, our addressable market share is relatively small, only 15%. We want to double that.
We have some ideas how to do that, and for that, we don't need ASM PT. So we hope, of course, that ASM PT will do very well, but it's for us a financial investment, and for now, it will stay a financial investment.
Vamsi, you want to take the second one? What was the second one?
I got the second one. The second one is on outcome-based services, and have we gone through learnings and are we potentially taking lower margins in certain areas as we go through? Yes, we have gone through learnings, right? When we approach a customer with outcomes-based services, many times it's in the tool selection phase where we don't know what it takes to run that tool in high-volume production. So we do have to make commitments.
And those commitments are really towards how do we expect that tool to run in a high-volume production fab environment. In many cases, it takes us some cycles of learning to get there to achieve better performance. So yes, we do have cycles of learning that we go through as we engage with outcome-based services with our customers.
Thank you, Sandeep Deshpande at JPMorgan . Two questions for me. Firstly, on your guidance in 2027, is this a top-down guidance based on WFE view, your WFE view in 2027, or have you done a bottom-up survey of your customers and based on how they have given pre-indications on how their ramp-up will be? In particular, given that you talked about these market share gains, potentially in DRAM, will that be helping that in 2027?
Then secondly, the issue you had in 2025 associated with the foundry, I mean, whether that foundry will be ordered, a foundry/logic customer will be ordering in 2027 or not has been taken into account. My second question is on advanced packaging. You've talked about an opportunity in advanced packaging, but many of your peers in the semiconductor equipment space have already gone and staked out their positions in that market. Where is it that you're going to stake your position? Is it ALD in advanced packaging, or is it Epi? Where are you going to stake that position? Is this going to be a significant portion of your 2030 revenue? Thank you.
Yeah, so for 2027, the DRAM transitions I talked about are essentially D1, D2 onwards. We do expect some initial investments on the D0a, the inflections that I mentioned about it, but most of the ramp is counted from 2028 and beyond in that sense. 2027, we see ramp of 1.4 nm happening and may not be so 2 nm will be a long node as well. 1.4 nm will get started in 2027. Those are the two assumptions that, but it's not going to be in very high ramp. It's going to be getting started out of the gate in 2027.
From the foundry point of view, we don't see it whether it's going to go to customer A or B or C. That's really agnostic to customer A, B, and C. Because at that time, it's really the demand of the market that's really most important. I think really demand is mostly important.
And I think customers right now, with the expansion they have in manufacturing, they will be able to get that demand independently of which customer is more successful than the other one. And then the second question you talked about advanced packaging. I think in advanced packaging, yes, there are many customers that are there. They have many competitors that are in those businesses. We think that we can offer something. I think we can disrupt some of that business. First, okay, in PECVD, we have PECVD offering. And there are many, many new things that really need to happen there. For example, you need to develop films that conduct electricity, conduct heat much better. So a dielectric film that conducts heat. So we're looking into new films, new chemistry, new precursors that actually can do chemistry pretty much. And let's say we understand a little bit of the chemistry.
So we're actually developing those films that can really dissipate the heat that's generated. And the heat, as you guys know, in advanced packaging, heat is a big deal. There's also many films that, where customers, you want to make sure that, okay, you can seal some of the better sealing in the bonding. Also, the films need to be compatible with CMP and so on. So really, customers actually are learning with us right now. And there's lots of; every day you hear, okay, this is a problem statement and so on and so forth. So they go to our competitor, and also they go to us, and we try to fix some of the solution. In some of them, we have been successful, and we got the business from that point of view. Yes, we have ALD, so we're working on ALD for advanced packaging, surface treatment.
That I talk about, that's one other area that we're working on. And as I mentioned, we would like to achieve greater than 30% of the TAM of that business. There are areas that we are also looking at. We're not saying that, okay, we're going to gain huge market share in that part of the business. But I think if we do well, we should be able to, if we execute well, I think we should be able to achieve good market penetration in advanced packaging.
Hi, Eric. Maybe switching to a question about the integrated solutions. One of your competitors has sort of talked about this for a couple of years. How big is it as a percentage of revenue now, and where do you see that end up? And what will be driving those type of integrated tools versus the single setup?
I can't really speak to the revenue, but integrated solutions are picking up steam, especially in the metallization space, where you have to have pre-clean. Also, in the ASD space that Hichem spoke about, it's really important that everything be clustered together in those steps. We have to pre-treat the surface in order to enable ASD or metallization, Moly. Those are where I would say the most clustering is really critical. A lot of technology does not require clustering. The XP8E is not just for clustering. It's also for throughput as well, high throughput processes. Parallel processing that don't necessarily have to be clustered. I would say I can't really speak to the percentage, but it's a small percentage. Yeah. Most important in the metallization space and area selective deposition.
All right. Nick, Paul, you presented the slide where operating margin would stay above 28% from 26th quarter. It would stay above 28%. But given uncertainty next year and we start the year with a quite lower backlog than usual, what gives you the confidence that that's a lower threshold you can definitely beat?
So you're right. So backlog, and based on the guidance you've given, it will come down in the coming two quarters. So the year will start soft. At the same time, given all the trends that we talked about, we do believe that somewhere in the year, things will pick up and improve. And based on that, we have a view, of course, on 26. That in combination with some of the initiatives we're taking on efficiency, on productivity, on platform, and all the things that I mentioned, make it still possible to stay north of 28%.
But you're right. We need a certain revenue level, of course, to be able to achieve that. We think that we're still in the money to be able to do that. But at the end of the day, it's still relatively early, too early to tell. But yeah, we know the year will start weak. That has been taken into account. But we also expect that to improve in the course of 2026. And it's really too early to tell how that will develop. Everything that's going on with one specific customer, we'll see how that will develop. PowerWave Analog is still early days to see how that will develop. Even China is a little bit early days, or we think it will come down. But again, precisely how much is also difficult. So it's really hard to say precisely how much.
But yeah, we've made some assumptions that make sense, I believe. And based on that, we have said what we said.
Thank you. Didier Scemama from Bank of America Securities. A couple of questions. Just wanted to go back to the booking thing. So I think at the time of Q2, Paul, you said Q3 bookings will go up. And now I think what you said earlier is that leading-edge logic orders are up Q3, Q4. So implicitly, that means the rest is down. Is that fair? That's my first question. And then the second question, sorry, about bookings. We're the financial analysts at the end of the day. For 2027, to see the snapback that you're sort of guiding for, given your lead times, would it be fair to say that your bookings have to materially accelerate, probably at the latest Q2, Q3 next year? Is that the right ballpark?
Yes. So first on Q3, what we said at Q2 was that because Q2 bookings were relatively low compared to consensus. And of course, you want to know why. Now, one of the reasons was because leading logic foundry was relatively low after five or six quarters of pretty strong bookings. At that moment in time, we said leading logic foundry will come back in Q3 and Q4, will be strong again. That's still happening. We didn't say that our overall bookings would be strong because we also guided for a book-to-bill below one for Q3. Why is that? Because China is coming down a lot. So bookings in China will come down a lot, at least as the current view that we have in Q3, but even more so in Q4.
So the net of everything we said was still not very strong bookings in Q3, just to clarify that. Then on 2027, yeah, of course, at a certain moment in time, these bookings should come in. I'm not going to say it should be Q2 or Q3. We have the capacity in place. We showed that. So we can actually turn around the product pretty quickly. We can even deliver if needed. If you get a booking in the quarter, and if you have some material for which we can plan, we can even ship an invoice in the same quarter, so within three months. Most of it, what we do is, let's say, within six months, also because that's what we want. That gives us more time and better time to plan for material, for everything we need. But it's not impossible to do that.
At the end of the day, it will all depend on customer forecasts. We work with forecasts, especially for the larger customers. There we get a pretty good indication of what we want. That does not always one-on-one, let's say, convert into a PO, so into a booking that you see. But we already have more visibility, of course, in the pipeline than what actually you guys see in our order book. But you're right. It will have to come back. If it doesn't come back, it will get more complicated. But we believe it will.
Just the final one, very simple one. The EUR 5.7 billion target 2027, what sort of WFE is it based on? $ 155 billion. That's 2030 or that's the. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry. Excuse me. The new 2027 targets, sorry, the 2030 is on $155 billion. So what's the 2027 WFE assumption?
I think it's still the $120 billion that we used to have. I don't think that we made any change there. Yeah.
Thank you, guys. I'm Adithya Metuku from HSBC. Firstly, I just wanted to ask a bit about NAND. Your main competitor in ALD is talking a lot about share gains in NAND, and you spend very little time on NAND today. So I just wondered, how do you see your market share in NAND, ALD, and any color you can provide around that market? Would be helpful and a good follow-up.
Yeah, so today we focused on what we see as the areas of growth and potential for us going forward, depending on the end markets, as well as where we see the huge intensity for areas of our strength going forward. So ALD, Moly is an opportunity that we are after.
We are an ALD innovation company, and Moly is in different technologies. Moly is replacing ALD Tungsten, which was already in NAND. So we are focused on logic applications as well as other memory spaces as well. So we are going to have ALD, Moly, PTOR in the first-generation GAA. So that's a significant gain for us. So any Moly win PTOR win we gain is a new business, new growth opportunity, and a new addition of SAM to us going forward. So we are doing, in that sense, pretty well in the ALD, Molybdenum business. And we see also the ALD, Molybdenum continuing, and it's reflected in what we showed as the ALD layers going forward, especially in leading-edge logic foundry. Most of the growth is still happening in front-end of line, which is a place of strength for us.
And we are focused on looking everywhere, but also looking at the same time maintaining share or gaining share going forward in all the space. So any gains we have in ALD, Molybdenum are an incremental and new SAM for us and growth for us.
Sorry. And maybe just to follow up, on Epi, I noticed you didn't give any market share targets. I don't know if I missed it, but previously, you had given a target of 30% in 2027 and 2030. So I just wondered if you have any targets to share.
Yeah, I can give. I will take that. We have, of course, a target is to grow share, but for a number of reasons, we didn't want to be too explicit on the internal target that we have. But the target is to further grow share in leading edge for our Epi business.
For the next question, let's go back to the phones.
Thank you, François-Xavier Bouvignies, UBS. My first question is on, I mean, this outperformance of the WFE you showed for 2027 and 2030 is well supported by the ALD layers you mentioned. So it's going to be 2027, all the DRAM opportunities in 2028 and beyond. Is there any opportunities on the logic that you see in 2026 as well? I mean, do you still think you can outperform the WFE also in 2026 in that round? Because it seems that all the logic and memory are coming in 2027 and beyond with all the things you described. And I was wondering if I'm missing something on 2026 that could happen before.
I mean, I can take that question. I think if leading edge goes very well in 2026, based on what we showed today, that we have good market share and increased market share in ALD in the high-end logic part of the business. I think we should be able to continue growing and outgrow the market from that point of view. So it really depends on how the market will go in 2026. I think that there's still continuous bias from our customer for the 2-nanometer technology node. I think it's going to be still strong in 2026. We also see pilot production starting in the 1.4-nanometer technology node. And with that, we have good position in that technology. So we're confident. As long as the high-end goes well, I think we should be able to do very well.
Thank you. My second question is on 2030. Did you make any assumptions on High-NA adoption at all?
I mean, how it could impact your business if you move to double pattern into single? I guess it could have a very different impact as well. So is it because of the range? The range is high-end? I guess it's important. So any impact on that?
Can you take it, Vamsi?
So just to reset, 2030, we are looking at 1.4-nanometer ramp, heavy ramp, and 1.0 initial production, as well as memory 4F² ramp going on at that time with FinFET coming in at the same time in that year. Not full adoption, but leading adopters will have that.
So within all these assumptions, what we showed about 1.4-nanometer front-end layers being higher than others as well, the impact of high-end AI is in there implicitly, which is to say that it's not going to make that much of a difference for our assumptions and modeling in that sense.
Hi, it's Timm Schulze-Melander , Rothschild & Co Redburn . Maybe one question for Paul in the follow-up for HSBC. Paul, on the 2027 margin guidance, you talked about some of the efficiency gains that are going to help the headwind from FX. But maybe could you be a little bit specific which one of those are new and maybe which one of those are sort of the most sizable and kind of when can investors start to see them come through in their models?
So operating margin or gross margin?
Ideally, both.
Okay. So let's start with the gross margin then.
So, one is revenue growth costs. There will be continued benefits from operating leverage. There's some fixed costs that we simply will come down as a percentage of revenue. MIT will start to contribute. We started this year already with some pilot products, so that will grow over time, and that's actually quite a reasonable contribution. Platform is, I think, more gradual. It's something that we would like very much, and believe me, I would like it maybe the most, but not all our customers want to, for good reasons at their end, immediately change, so that will go gradual, but there will be some benefit of that as well. Commercial negotiations, of course, with suppliers will continue because also with going to more common and more commonality in our platforms, you get better, of course, commercial negotiation positions, which for sure will help.
And then on top of that, if you go to the operating margin, you have seen our target in 2030 for the 7%. I mean, that will continue, of course, from the 9 point something where we will be this year, 5.7. So there you will see also further contribution in the operating margin. So that's, yeah.
That's helpful. Obviously, appreciate if you can give any color into the courses when it does arrive. HSBC, as you look forward to 2027, 2030, I just want to think about the way that this group is organized and where you have your centers of excellence. We've talked a lot today about ALD. We've talked a bit about Epi. And then we have an initiative in advanced packaging.
Can you maybe just talk about how those regions are going to be represented, and particularly whether it's Europe, USA, what you do in Asia, and where most likely is your advanced packaging sort of center of excellence going to be? That'd be really helpful. Thank you.
I think that, as I mentioned earlier, as you can see, we are actually present everywhere. We are present in Europe, and we're present in Asia, and we're present also in the U.S., all of them are doing ALD for us. Okay? From that point of view, everybody has his own thing on the ALD point of view, so when we say ALD, we're actually developing ALD worldwide, and that's really the strength. We take leverage of strength of each region to make our products better. The same thing is also happening in Epi.
I think Epi is mainly between the U.S. and Europe more than anything else. I think for ALD, it's all over the world and for Epitaxy, it's really working both in the U.S. and in Europe. Right now, as far as the new application for advanced packaging, so since we have ALD, so that's going to be all over the world, since we have Epi, that's between the U.S. and Europe. And we're looking into other opportunities and those opportunities, we haven't made a decision where they're going to be. But I think you're going to hear in the next few months some of that and it's going to be very clear where we're going to be then.
Okay. Yeah, hi. Janardan Menon from Jefferies. I just want to go back to your visibility on 2027.
I'm just contrasting that with the, say, your point in 2023, where you were talking about 2025. And when I look at when you were obviously very bullish about the GAA, DRAM, et cetera, and your growth based on current expectations is probably going to be in the region of the sort of low 20% kind of range between 2023 and 2025. So you currently seem to be more bullish on 2027 than you were on 2025 at the same stage. So my question is, do you have so much visibility on 2025, I mean, on 2027, to be giving this kind of guidance? And secondly, what is the assumption you're making on China for 2027? Would you expect it to be flat or up or down at this point in time?
I thought about because one of your competitors has been talking about gaining moly metallization design wins in advanced logic as well. Just any comment on, do you see any share losses on that front?
You can take the first one.
That's fine. Yeah. So you have a better memory than I have, Jonardan, because I don't know how upbeat we were in 2023, about 2025. And a little bit surprised here that we are more upbeat today than we were then. I mean, I think if you see where we are today and if we see how we will start 2026, which will be relatively soft given the backlog developments, it's definitely not a slam dunk, just to be clear. So if we sounded too upbeat, then let's bring it down a little bit. Having said that, there's quite a few trends that work in our favor.
We have modeled that very detailed. We have made assumptions around that. As we said a few times, at the end of the day, it will very much depend on end markets. So far, end markets, especially for leading-edge logic foundry, look actually quite good, quite promising. To us, it doesn't make a hell of a difference if customer A or customer B or customer C or customer D will be successful. As long as, let's say, there's enough visibility that these trends will continue, someone will very likely invest, or all of them. Because for some customers, it's more uncertain what will happen than for others, as you know. That's, especially if you look out two years, is not super relevant for us as long as, let's say, the macroeconomic uncertainty does not pause investments, pause trends that we see.
If that doesn't happen, we're actually, yeah, I think we will be in the money very likely. But there is, of course, this economic uncertainty going on. There's a lot of geopolitical stuff going on. This whole tariff discussion is happening. To what extent will that impact the economy? I mentioned clearly on the slide, yeah, we have not been able to take that into account because that's really, yeah, we just don't know. But if the trends that we see today, every day when you read, when you open, when you wake up, when you open a newspaper, there's again $100 billion AI investments. So if these trends continue, yeah, there is a good reason for us to stick to that target, given, again, the incremental SAM that we see for 1.4-nanometer .
Then in 2027, hopefully, we will also see the first products or orders coming in for 4F², where we target to improve our share. So there's a number of things that can happen. But yeah, at the end of the day, we don't have a crystal ball. But yeah, we were not intending to sound more bullish than 2025. Then in 2023, sorry, let me say that upfront. And then the other one was a Moly.
Yeah, I think to ask, and then your second question is about metallization and molybdenum in logic. I think the way I'll answer your question is that for us, metallization is a new market. We have been an ALD company, mainly in the dielectric, which is really mainly in dielectric market and also in metal nitride and metal oxide. So metallization is a new thing for us.
What I can tell you there is that if you look into the metallization part of moving from in ALD, anything we win in metallization for us is additional, and we'll be really very excited about that. The other thing I can tell you that for what's happening in metallization, it's still a very small part of the whole ALD pie, as I talked about earlier. I think metallization in the back end of line ALD will become more predominant in the 1-nanometer technology node and below. That's really where the size will increase. We are there. We're very excited that we have won some wins at our customer for the 2-nanometer win. I'm 100% sure that also our competitor has won some of those layers, but for us, it's new additional market.
For our competitor who have been in the metal market, it's really moving from tungsten to a different material. So as also mentioned to you earlier, we presented earlier that by myself and also by Vamsi that when we go from 2-nanometer to 1.4-nanometer, most of the ALD growth is happening in the front end of line. Most of the things really are happening there, many more ALD layer that's happening there than what's happening in the metallization. And that's why our growth of market share in the higher-end 1.4-nanometer node is actually better than at the nanometer because most of those ALD layer are actually happening in the front end of line. I hope that answered your question.
Thank you, Andrew Gardiner from Citi.
Just another one on the visibility you've got in terms of the market share gains, particularly as you look at the next Gate-All-Around node. Hichem, you just mentioned that we'll start to see pilot line build-outs next year for 1.4-nanometer. Can you sort of describe how well you are doing in terms of the layers there? And I suppose specifically, what is the advantage that you've got in terms of your incumbency? Have you lost any layers that you had in the prior 2-nanometer nodes or the equivalent? And in terms of the gains you might have in the newer structures or newer layers for ALD, are you gaining more than your fair share so we can look forward to that share gain? Thank you.
One answer.
Yeah, so 1.4-nanometer, again, on a blended level, there's going to be more growth in front-end of line blended across customers.
There's going to be more growth in front-end of line, as Hichem said multiple times, compared to the middle of line and back-end of line. The current analysis that we have is that we have at least maintained our share going from 2-nanometers to 1.4-nanometers overall blended share for single wafer for ALD.
Michael Roeg. Sorry. Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam. Mr. Bahar has said that by 2030, everything stands or falls with the size and the mix of the wafer fab equipment market, $155 billion. Your most successful customer in leading-edge logic is TSMC. Yet for every new node they introduce, they're cannibalizing their older nodes in leading-edge logic. You clearly see that the 7-nanometer utilization is below average. If there's a huge build-out in 2-nanometer, it will cannibalize the older fabs. Tools will become obsolete.
In the Q2 call, they clearly said they're converting 7-nanometer to 5-nanometer, 5 to 3. They will continue. So now my question is, how do you see the risk that a $155 billion market in 2030 will be $20 billion from converting existing tools, which leaves only $135 billion for new equipment sales?
I can take that. So I'll get to your question, but again, 2030 scenario, if you look back at our presentations and forecasts, it's essentially coming from an ALD logic foundry-focused company to now growth engines on ALD and AP, as well as logic foundry and leading-edge DRAM as well. So it's more spread out in that sense of where we see the forecast coming from for 2030. But also coming back to your question, yes, we do the signals. We do see the signals of what you just mentioned.
And that has been somewhat factored into our analysis. Of course, the reuse is a much bigger factor in DRAM than it used to be in logic foundry. But we do see that decisions are being made for at least two nodes, if not more, going forward. And that's part of our model.
I mean, if I can also help in answering this question, I think we have demonstrated to you today that the device architecture is changing when we go from the 2-nanometer to the 1.4 to 1.0. And what does it mean? It means that you need new material and you need new equipment. So the reuse part really becomes not you cannot reuse many of those equipment from one generation.
It's not as easy to use some of the equipment from one generation to the other because the complexity is there, which means you need to have new reactor. For example, plasma needs to be a different type of plasma. You need to get this certain capability. You need to have a new material. So that's a new precursor. And with a new precursor, you need to change the reactor. So it's really not something that you can just repeat over and over from that point of view. What's important there is really the device structure is changing. I mean, we showed you guys from 2-nanometer to 1.4, you're going to have backside distribution. And then you're going to have more of these MIM cap layers. And there's also more of channel films on the top. There are many things that are really changing.
With that, you need to have more equipment. Okay. We really like to thank you all for joining us today in our third investor meeting. We thank you very much for being here and for your question. We are very confident. I think we hope that we really provided you with a summary of where we think the market is going and where we think that the role we can play. We feel confident about the future. It's really one of the greatest times to be in this industry. From someone who's been in the industry for the last 31 years being in this industry, I can tell you what we are developing right now in ALD is just amazing. I mean, this angstrom-level control that we are doing is, I mean, it really blows my mind.
For a person who's been developing films in the micron range, right now we're developing film in the angstrom range. And we can control the thickness to 0.1 angstrom. If you asked me a few years ago, I said this is science fiction. But actually, it's reality, and what I see right now, this industry is actually going to grow even further. I mean, right now, it's like every monolayer matters, but what we were thinking right now about just one monolayer, which is actually 2D material, and we're actually thinking about the next, where you need to develop a new film for quantum computing, and for that, really, when we talk about quantum computing, we talk about, it's really the problem in quantum computing is not quantum computing. It's really material. How can you make those materials that can really do the qubits at room temperature?
So there's lots of development from that point of view. But what I can tell you, we are very excited about this industry. It plays on our strength in material, in innovation. And I hope that you have seen today that we are very confident about the future to the 2030 and beyond. Thank you very much for your time.