Okay, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Banijay Group nine month 2025 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one, one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please use the Q&A box available on the webcast link anytime during the conference. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Marion Heudes, Investor Relations. Madam, please go ahead.
Good evening and welcome to Banijay Group 2025 first nine months result webcast. This is Marion Heudes, Investor Relations. Before we start, let me draw your attention to the disclaimer on Slide two. I also want to remind you that this presentation is now available on the company's website, and the recording of this call will be accessible in the coming days. Your speakers today are François Riahi, our CEO, and Sophie Kurinckx-Leclerc, our CFO. First, François will present our key financial and business highlights for the first nine months. Sophie will then cover the results in more detail before François provides some concluding remarks. We will then open the call for questions. Over to you, François.
Thank you, Marion. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During the first nine months of 2025, Banijay Group revenue reached EUR 3.2 billion, up 4% year-on-year. In content production and distribution, we delivered a strong slate of scripted shows to global streaming platforms and linear broadcasters, and are seeing the usual seasonality of show deliveries weighted to ask you for. In live event production, we delivered strong growth as we scaled up key immersive experience IP across our global network. While in sports betting and gaming, we delivered once again strong performance across all activities, even when considering the very high comparison base from 2024 and a number of adverse sports results in September. Adjusted EBITDA growth is up 9.8% for the first nine months, with both sides of the business delivering a margin improvement.
On the Banijay Entertainment and Live side, this was thanks to the positive timing of major scripted deliveries at higher margin rates, while at Banijay Gaming, this improvement was driven by good cost discipline, partially offset by French tax increases in Q3 and the adverse results already mentioned. As a result, adjusted net income was up 9.3% to EUR 271 million. We maintain a high level of cash conversion at 78%, and our leverage is stable versus the end of 2024 at 2.9 times. Let's move to business highlights now, starting with Banijay Entertainment, our content production and distribution business. As the number one European studio for scripted shows, we have once again delivered global hits this year for both streamers and linear broadcasters. During our Capital Markets Day, we highlighted how we are effectively leveraging our English-speaking footprint with streaming platforms to capture market share as they expand.
This is clearly demonstrated during this period. We delivered major global shows that connect global audiences, such as historical drama House of Guinness, which was the number three English-language series globally and the number one show in the U.K. and Ireland, with over 5 million views. We also delivered local hits that traveled globally, capitalizing on global streaming platform audiences. Swedish dramedy Diary of a Ditched Girl was also a huge success on Netflix, becoming a top 10 non-English-language title globally with 1.3 million views in the week of its release. We continue to deliver more high-quality local content that resonates with local audiences for linear broadcasters like TF1 here in France. This includes historical drama Montmartre, reaching over 4 million viewers with its first episode, and Rien Ne T'Efface, which secured an average of 4.3 million viewers across the week of its release.
Let's move to live experiences, digital, and sports, the strategic growth pillars highlighted at our Capital Markets Day, where we are now delivering concrete progress and scaling fast. First, on the live side, the first nine months saw the fast rollout of Luminescence, the immersive show from LOTCHI acquired in January. Since then, we have rapidly scaled this IP, leveraging our global footprint to move into four new markets: Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S., and there will be three more in 2026. The company is now producing more than three shows per day on average, and the number of tickets sold has tripled year-on-year to almost 500,000. This marks our first live IP acquisition and a rapid, fully organic rollout.
Looking ahead, we will continue to identify and scale high-potential live IPs across our global footprint, including our own IPs like Black Mirror, which will be in 2026. Second, on the digital and AI side, we continue to strengthen our innovation, talent, and technology infrastructure, forming partnerships with innovative tech platforms to accelerate catalog monetization and expanding our presence on YouTube, which is, of course, a key priority, through collaborations with content creators. A few examples: we partner with the French company MomentsLab to drive AI-driven solutions for smarter video indexing, discovery, and content accessibility, enabling us to repurpose and monetize our leading content catalog at scale across channels. Working with YouTube, we also launched Banijay Creator Studio, both in France and in the U.K., to tap into the fast-growing creator economy.
This initiative will bridge the gap between creators and creatives by inviting YouTubers to reinvent iconic television shows for digital audiences. Third, at the junction of sports and digital, we are actively developing multiple initiatives in this growing segment. A recent example is the launch of SCF in Benelux, the first ANVB-registered football club powered by leading digital creators. All these digital initiatives open new revenue streams, from sponsorships to digital advertising and content monetization, and we will continue to develop these pioneering initiatives across our markets. Moving now to Banijay Gaming, which saw a strong 23% increase in unique active players. As I say every quarter, this is the most important KPI to look at when you want to assess the commercial performance of the platform.
This UIP increase is especially impressive given the high comparison basis with last year's busy sports calendar, with Euro 2024 and the Olympics, and it's thanks to our proven proactive acquisition and retention strategy. Adverse sports results in September resulted in lower sports revenues. As you've seen in previous years, this temporary volatility is part of operating in this space, with sometimes unfavorable months followed by a natural catch-up in subsequent periods. In casino and poker, there was very strong performance: 16% revenue growth in casino and 33% in poker, so it's more in line with the increase in UIP, driven by the new poker platform introduced at the end of last year, which is, of course, very satisfactory as moving from an external platform to an internal platform has boosted the revenues.
Last week, we announced a transformational deal to combine Betclic and Tipico to create a European champion in sports betting and online gaming, and I'll come back to that later. In this context, strong technological foundations like our high-performing poker platform become even more strategic, with the opportunity to unlock easy synergy opportunities that have already been identified. That's all from me for now. I give the floor to Sophie.
Thank you, François. Let's start with group revenue for the first nine months, where we delivered 4% growth at constant exchange rates to reach EUR 3.2 billion. Q3 revenue was down very slightly at constant exchange rates. Thanks to this growth in revenues and our effective cost control, adjusted EBITDA grew 9.8% at constant exchange rates. We also saw our adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 18.5%. This was mainly driven by the greater contribution from Banijay Gaming, which has a higher margin. At Banijay Entertainment, EBITDA margin also increased due to a different timing of scripted deliveries at higher margin rates like Buccaneers or House of Guinness. At the group level, total external and personnel expense grows by just 2.2%, driven by effective cost management across all activities. Looking next at our P&L. LTP expenses were down as anticipated, reflecting the expected trajectory of vesting plans.
The increase in depreciation and amortization is driven by greater recoupment of third-party distribution advance in our content production and distribution business, as well as higher depreciation linked to IT capitalization at Banijay Gaming. The other finance costs mainly include the change in the fair value of financial instruments, including hedging, or mainly put and earn-out debt, and currency losses and gains. Income tax expense increased in line with activity growth, but looking at the effective tax rate, it has improved slightly year-on-year. Adjusted net income was up 9.3% to EUR 271 million. Let's go now to results by business, starting with content production, distribution, and live events. Revenues were up 1.7% to EUR 2.1 billion at constant exchange rates, which is a solid performance. As usual, there is an expected seasonality effect with an amplified volume of show deliveries and production of events weighted towards the end of the year.
Looking at revenue by activity, content production and distribution revenues were stable and reflect the phasing of deliveries at year-end. While underlying activity remains dynamic, with a strong slate of scripted shows delivered to both streamers and linear broadcasters. For live experience and other, the first nine months was a particularly strong period, as highlighted by François earlier. Growth of 15% reflects firstly the consolidation of LOTCHI since early 2025. Delivering notable success through its rollout across France and internationally. There was also a solid performance from Banijay Wonder Studios, with a seasonality effect resulting in increased show deliveries during Q4 2025. Let's look at content production and distribution earnings and cash flow next. Adjusted EBITDA was up 6.7% at constant exchange rates, a very good result supported by revenue growth, favorable timing effect on scripted deliveries at higher margins and cost savings.
Higher CapEx mainly reflects higher third-party distribution advances at Banijay Rights and higher investment in digitalization. The change in working capital and income tax paid mainly reflects the timing effect on scripted deliveries, with major scripted shows delivered before the end of September in 2025, compared to a high weighting of scripted show deliveries in Q4 last year. This reflects a return to a more normal seasonality compared to 2024, consistent with trends seen in 2022 and 2023. Adjusted free cash flow conversion was 63%. Next, let's look at online sports betting and gaming, where we saw solid growth of 8.5% at constant exchange rates, even when taking into consideration the high comparison basis with last year, as previously mentioned by François. Sportsbook revenues were up 5% despite the high comparison basis with last year, and the temporary impact of unfavorable football sports results in September 2025.
As already mentioned earlier, this business is naturally exposed to short-term volatility in sports results. We will see the catch-up of this one-off effect in the coming months, but conservatively, expect this to happen beyond the end of this financial year, given the sports results seen in October. In online casino, poker, and turf, performance was strong across all geographies, with revenue up 21%. Driven by the strong adoption of the new poker platform. Supported by high player engagement and continued positive momentum in online casino. Looking at earnings now, Banijay Gaming continues to deliver solid profitability and free cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA was up 12.9% at constant exchange rates, with a margin of 110 basis points, thanks to continued cost discipline, including lower marketing costs as a percentage of revenues. This was partially offset by higher betting tax in France, which came into effect in July 2025.
Adjusted free cash flow conversion remained high at 93%. Over the first nine months of 2025, adjusted operating free cash flow was temporarily impacted by one-off items and sports calendar effects. First, one-offs related to the exceptional 2024 performance, with cash outflows occurring in 2025. These affected both the change in working capital, notably due to 2024 performance-related payouts cashed out this year, and income tax paid, which includes an exceptional EUR 27 million payment linked to the strong results achieved in 2024. Second, the sports calendar and sports outcomes created timing effects on working capital, particularly on betting taxes, marketing spend, and other taxes. This is pure cut-off effects. Excluding the first element I mentioned relating to one-off, adjusted operating free cash flow would be up 1% compared to adjusted EBITDA growth of 13%, with the delta explained by the sports calendar and sports results outcomes in September.
These calendar effects are expected to gradually normalize towards year-end. Looking ahead, 2026 will benefit from the return of a major tournament cycle, including the FIFA World Cup. Looking at cash flow generation now. Adjusted free cash flow reached EUR 465 million. This resulted in a cash conversion rate after CapEx and lease payments of 78%. In line with our guidance for the year. Adjusted operating free cash flow was EUR 264 million. Given the normal seasonality effect, we expect strong cash collection in Q4. The group's net debt stands at just under EUR 2.8 billion. The increase in net debt mainly reflects the seasonality of the activity and cash payments, as well as the payment of the dividend during the period. Overall, we continue to have a strong cash position. And a significant unwritten secured credit line. That's all from me. I will now hand back to François for some concluding remarks.
Thank you, Sophie. As you can see, our performance in the first nine months of the year demonstrated that we are clearly delivering on our strategy. Overall, it was a strong first nine months performance for the group, with 10% earnings growth and a solid contribution from all activities. Banijay Entertainment saw stable growth, while Banijay Live demonstrated that it is an increasingly significant strategic growth driver, as explained during our CMD. This positive momentum is also expected to increase in the final quarter of the year, thanks to major shows in the pipeline at Banijay Wonder Studios. Banijay Gaming once again showed its profitability, delivering continued strong performance across all activities despite a high comparison basis with last year, tax increases in France, and unfavorable sports results in September, which should not mask the strong performance of our business once again.
We demonstrated our credentials as a natural consolidator in the entertainment industry with the acquisition of Tipico to create a European champion in sports betting and online gaming. I will come back on it in a minute. In terms of our outlook for 2025, we expect to deliver low single-digit organic revenue growth from Banijay Entertainment and Banijay Live, which reflects the postponement of some deliveries to Q1 at the Banijay Entertainment level. On the Banijay Gaming side, because of negative sports results in September, not reversed in October, as explained by Sophie, we expect to land around 10% organic revenue growth for this business, which is a strong result for 2025 compared to a very, very strong 2024. Despite these primarily timing effects, we confirm our guidance of mid to high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and about 80% of adjusted free cash flow conversion.
Overall, we foresee a strong full year for the group. Before we take your questions, a quick update on the largest acquisition made by the group so far. Tipico is the undisputed leader in sports betting and gaming in Germany and Austria. In 2024, it had revenues of EUR 1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA around EUR 480 million, meaning a similar scale to Betclic. With Tipico and Admiral in Austria, it has two major brands with strong customer loyalty ratings and brand awareness. Nine out of 10 sports bettors in Germany know Tipico, and on iOS and Android, Tipico is the best-rated app. This recognition as a sports betting leader has been built through a 360-degree offering, combining 2 million digital unique IT players with 1,250 betting shops across Germany and Austria. This means that Banijay Gaming will have a physical retail presence in these two countries.
Leveraging a market-leading proprietary tech platform, Tipico has a strong track record of market share growth and has significant room to grow further with a large untapped market in Germany and some potential new offerings in Austria. As a result, Banijay Gaming will be a leading European champion in sports betting and online gaming. It will have a combined presence in six countries with top two positions in all, including three out of the five largest countries in the European Union, and will be the fourth biggest European operator and the largest sports betting operator in continental Europe. There is a clear strategic fit between the two companies. Together, we will have an even more diversified geographical footprint, a multi-channel offering, a strong cultural alignment, and state-of-the-art technology platforms.
The deal is fully backed at Banijay Gaming level by a financing package for a principal amount worth EUR 3 billion and a return by Betclic's main financing partners, including the refinancing of Tipico Group's existing debt and the cash out from CVC and Tipico's managers relative to a majority of their stake in Tipico. It is also worth mentioning that we expect fast delivery driven by strong cash generation. Recent confirmation of Moody's rating on Betclic's existing Term Loan B is a clear signal of confidence in the Tipico acquisition. In terms of next steps, the proposed transaction is subject to customary conditions precedent, in particular, merger control and gambling regulator approvals. We also plan to divest our stake in Betatom. Given the fact that there's no overlapping between the two companies, the closing of the transaction is expected by mid-2026.
This financially accurate deal perfectly illustrates our position as a natural consolidator of the entertainment industry. We are acquiring a highly profitable and cash-generative company, allowing us to achieve our strategic ambitions and create value for Banijay Group shareholders. Post-transaction, the new Banijay Group will, on the basis of 2024 pro forma, deliver around EUR 6.4 billion, which is an increase of EUR 1.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in 2024 of the combined entity is EUR 1.4 billion pro forma, representing a 22% margin compared to 19% before transaction. Adjusted free cash flow is EUR 1.1 billion, and adjusted operating free cash flow is EUR 1 billion, representing strong conversion rates of 81% and 71%, respectively. Again, these are figures for 2024. It will be more in 2025 and 2026.
We will update our financial targets for 2028 in our full year 2025 results, but we can already tell you that we expect to generate approximately EUR 100 million of synergies on a yearly basis in 2028. This all adds up to a highly attractive value proposition, combining high margins, strong cash generation, and a leverage ratio below 2.5 times within three years. Excluding the exercise of call options to increase our stake in Banijay Gaming, the leveraging should be around 0.5 times each year. After years of organic development in the sports betting and gaming industry, focusing on building the best infrastructure platform and delivering the highest growth in the market, we are now reaching a major milestone with this consolidation, and it is a major step in the story of Banijay Group. That's all from me. Thank you for your attention, and back to you, Marion.
Thank you, François. It is now time for questions. Please state your name and company. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please use the Q&A box and click submit. We will take our first question. Your first question comes from the line of Silvia Cuneo from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good evening, everyone. I'd like to ask three questions from my side. The first, regarding the revised revenue outlook, what is the current level of visibility you have on Q4, particularly for Banijay Entertainment postponed deliveries and the gaming sports calendar? Are there any other risks to be aware of that could further impact the revenue performance relative to the updated guidance in Q4? Secondly, considering the commentary around the seasonality and postponement of certain content deliveries in entertainment impacting 2025.
Could you provide more color on the overall demand landscape for content heading into 2026, both from the global streamers and the traditional broadcasters as well? The third question is on the Q3 adjusted EBITDA margins. For both Banijay Entertainment and Live and Banijay Gaming, they were ahead of our expectations despite some revenue deceleration. Could you elaborate on the typical seasonal effects that influence the profitability in Q3? Looking ahead in Q4, what makes you confident you can still meet the unchanged guidance? Thank you.
Sorry. Thank you, Silvia. Sorry, I was on mute. I was saying, on the outlook for Q4, of course, we have very good visibility on Banijay Entertainment. On Banijay Gaming, we are always dependent on sports results. As Sophie was saying, we have chosen this time to be a little bit conservative because September was a very adverse month for sports results. October was not so good, so that is why we decided to be conservative. Actually, November is starting very well because there will be the catch-up. I think we are very confident on the gaming, but you can never predict the sports results. There are still a lot of Champions League games, and there is still some volatility. Again, we have taken a conservative approach on our outlook on Q4. On your question about the demand for content, I think. We have seen a good demand for content from streamers. Maybe a little bit less than what we expected on broadcasters, and with some, I would say, postponements at this level between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. On the margin, you want to elaborate?
On the margin, on Banijay Entertainment and Banijay Live, as we mentioned, we delivered during Q3 2025 high premium scripted shows like Buccaneers or House of Guinness with higher margin rates than—well, with higher margin rates. It was not the case last year as we delivered this kind of high premium scripted shows in Q4. That is why you have an increase of the EBITDA margin rate. On Banijay Gaming, as you know, this is a first fixed cost business, so we still had an increase of our business and revenue, etc., during the first nine months. That is why also the EBITDA margin is increasing. Also, we had less—well, we had a very strong cost control, and for example, less marketing cost. I remind you that last year, we had the Euro Cup plus the Olympic Games, and so we increased the marketing cost. Proportionally to the revenue in 2025, as we don't have such big sports events, we have not such important marketing costs. That's why also this margin rate is increasing.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Conor O'Shea from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, thank you. Good evening, everybody. Three questions from my side as well. First question. Just to make sure I'm understanding this right. For the full year, guidance on adjusted EBITDA at a group level, I think, is mid to high single digit versus almost around 10% for the nine months. Just wondering, is there anything explaining that? Is it seasonal marketing around the fourth quarter, maybe in the gaming business, that explains that sequential slowdown? Secondly, I think I saw something in the press about the Independents deal maybe being complicated by the slowdown in the luxury sector. Maybe you can comment on that. The last question, just in terms of some of the proposals in terms of the budget going through in France. Any impact that you see that you would call out for 2026, either on corporate tax or on betting tax or anything additional there would be very useful. Thank you.
Thank you, Conor. Maybe Sophie on the first question.
On the guidance of the EBITDA.
In fact, this guidance is maintained. It is what we expected. We maintain our guidance. It is true that we are higher today. I think Sophie was mentioning about a kind of different mix of delivery when it comes to premium scripted on Banijay Entertainment. There is also, on the gaming side, if you remember, unfortunately, a hefty increase in France, which happened in the second half. It has an impact, of course, on the EBITDA of the gaming for the second half only. A stronger impact on Q4 than on the first nine months. On your second question about The Independents, I think we always said we are going to decide on the exercise of the goal next year.
Nothing changed. Nothing changed also on the fact that we consider it as a very good business. I think, yes, the luxury sector has suffered. In 2025, but clearly, they have been very resilient, which is, I would say, a real testimony to their business model. Not everything that is written in the press is true. On your first question, I must say it's very difficult to follow the budget today. We cannot really say much about it. Now it's going to the Sena. We'll see what happens there. No, it's difficult to comment at this stage. Of course, I recall that I just said that on your first question, we are going for a strong tax increase in France already this year. I think it shouldn't be the case for next year.
Okay. No, this is very clear. Many thanks, François.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Two on Banijay Gaming, please. First, given the maximum player payout threshold in France, that seems like a pretty good mechanism to recoup within the year, Sophie, but your comment there is a bit more cautious. Is that around ability to capture volumes if you move the lines too far, or is that really relating to your business outside of France that would affect your ability to get back to where you need to be in the course of the year? Second of all, you mentioned the World Cup. I wonder if you could give us any outline thoughts about how material you expect that boost to be, given, obviously, it is a different format with more games, but also a time zone adjustment from your European market. If we think back in the history of what these tournaments have been, how do you think about the World Cup for next year? Thanks.
Thank you. On the first.
On the first question, you're right in France, but we are not only in France. The adverse results have been seen in our different countries. That is why we chose to be a little bit prudent on the expectations.
Yeah. On your second question. On the World Cup, of course, every two years, it's a big event for us, Euro or World Cup. I think when you look that we are targeting a double-digit growth on a year. Last year, we had the African Cup in Ivory Coast, where we are leader. We had the Euro. We had the Olympic Games in Paris, where we are leader. It was a very, very strong year for us in terms of sports calendar. Still, we managed to do a double-digit growth this year. It's a great achievement. Next year, of course, World Cup will be a very important element, both for Betclic and Tipico, by the way. We will benefit from it also on our acquisition. We believe that the time zone is a good one. Today, the time when.
The games will be played. Should be good for Europe. We see it as a major event and a revenue booster, as usual. We do not expect any. The fact that it is in the United States is not an issue for us, given the programming of the games. As you said, there will be more games. It is a positive, a little bit like the Champions League. The fact to have more games in Champions League has also been positive. We see it really positively. Of course, we will give our view on 2026 in next March. That is a very positive element for 2026.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Annik Maas from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi. Good evening. Apologies if I have to ask the same questions, but I've been partially cut from the call. On that note, the first one is, could you please comment on the fourth quarter? Is the weakness only going to come from the entertainment bids and Live is expected to perform as it has year to date, or is there also something that we should be aware of in Live? The second one is on The Independents. With the luxury downturn, you haven't really mentioned The Independents today, and you used to speak about it a lot. Just tell us how they performed over the last quarter, please. I guess with your Tipico acquisition, the financials of gaming, which are a bit more attractive necessarily than content. Could there be a scenario where you actually sell your content business and focus purely on gaming? Thank you.
Thank you. On your first question, Sophie, you want to elaborate on the Q4?
On the Q4, we will see a little bit more growth in content and distribution, but still a strong growth in the live business.
On your second question, yes. Also, I want to emphasize a little bit on the live because I think it's really positive. It's something we started like two years ago as a key growth driver, and we have built a lot of different things, and it pays off. It's really, for us, a very important key driver in the future. Next year, we will launch our immersive show on Black Mirror. It will be the first time we launch an immersive show on one of our IP. We have a lot of projects. We believe it's a very important development that it's moving so already this year. On your question of the independents, actually, I said it before, but maybe I understand you were disconnected. The luxury has been tough.
The luxury industry has g one through difficulties in 2025, but really, the independents are doing really well. They have been capable to really gain some market share thanks to their setup. It's really a testimony to the buildup they have been doing. The fact to have so many geographies and so many capabilities is a really important differentiator to the clients. They are really having a good performance given the circumstances. We have a really positive view on their performance. On the Tipico acquisition, it's a major event for us. We stick to our strategy that we presented during our Capital Markets Day, which is that we have very positive consolidation opportunities on all our activities. Here we are demonstrating it on the gaming side, but we believe that we can have also very good opportunities on the content side, and that our position. In the content side is also very good. No, we don't sell our business.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Anna Patrice from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Hello. Thank you for all the information. I missed some of the answers. If you could repeat a little bit, what was the impact of the increased taxes on the betting in France in Q4? The impact on the EBITDA, and what is the expected impact on the EBITDA in Q4? My impression is that the margin development was better than expected for you in Q3. You explained that partially this is due to lower marketing expenses in the betting. What are the expectations for Q4, and what was the development last year? Do you expect that, again, the market will be lower, so you will think you will have better margins in the, or supported margins in the betting? What about the independent and live margin development in Q4?
Again, it seems that the expectations are now a bit higher, given that the guidance for the EBITDA is not changed, despite the change for the top line. Thank you.
Thank you. You want to answer, Sophie, on the betting tax in France impact?
What we planned and what we gave during our last calls and communication was an impact of EUR 20 million for 2024. Given the adverse sports results that we had in September and not so good in October, we could expect a smaller impact in Q4. It depends, of course, on the results of the sports events. On the second one, in fact, we gave a guidance for 2025 on the global growth of EBITDA at group level. I will not provide you with a guidance on a specific EBITDA, but clearly, we should remain in the same level of profitability for the business.
Of course, we maintain our.
What I meant is— Yes. Sorry, I interrupted. What I meant is that you reiterated your EBITDA guidance for the full year, even though your top line guidance is slightly lower. That means that EBITDA margin is higher. I was wondering what is the reason for the expected higher EBITDA margin versus what you expected before? Is my question clear?
Yeah. Yeah. No, yeah. I think we are going to deliver a better margin than expected, yes.
What is the reason behind?
What is the reason behind the expectation? Yes. What we said is that, even here, we have a better margin than previous year. We will keep the same trend. Sorry, if I understood well, you want to know if the EBITDA margin will be better than expected in our guidance? Yes, mechanically speaking, of course. It will come from different items. The first may be a slightly different mix of the different businesses due to this growth, but also higher margin on some scripted shows in the production and entertainment business, as I already mentioned at the end of Q3. The cost control in the gaming business, as we mentioned also for Q3.
Yeah. I think for us, the EBITDA is really the main focus in terms of steering the company. In fact, when there's a little bit less of revenues for different reasons, we reduce the cost. I think it's a good demonstration of our flexibility, even if the adjustment we do on the growth is limited. It's a small adjustment.
Okay. That's all. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. There seems to be no further audio questions. I would like to hand back for webcast questions.
Yes. The first question on the webcast is, could you elaborate more on Banijay Gaming results? Backing out Q3 numbers, these were flat on EBITDA, down significantly. Should we expect the same for Q4? Finally, could you provide information on how you plan to finance the Tipico acquisition? Will this be a broadly syndicated loan?
Yeah. As we mentioned during the call, Q3, we are comparing a year with a Euro in 2024, and also with adverse sports results in September that we did not have last year. It is, to compare on the Q3, yes, there are reasons why our results in Q3 in Banijay Gaming are not progressing. All in all, I think I would like to underline once again, we are very happy with our development in sports betting and gaming. When you have an increase by 23% of your players, it is a very good result. When you have a double-digit growth compared to a year with a lot of events in sports, you also have to see that we are a company which is very much sports-driven compared to others. We are really connected to the sports events. On how we are going to finance the Tipico acquisition. As I mentioned earlier, today, this is financed by. This is secured. By existing banks. Of the group. Of course, we are going to go to the market. To finance it on the credit market.
Okay. Let's move now to the second question. Please, can you give more details on what is driving the show postponement in the entertainment revenue guidance? Are these delays in Q1 2026? Will this impact show orders for 2026 as a result?
In the current market environment, and more specifically maybe in the U.S., our clients prefer to recognize their content cost in 2026 instead of 2025. That's why we saw this slippage for a small number of shows that have been postponed in 2026.
The last question.
The same.
Okay. The same. If we do not have any other questions, I can close the call if you want to say your last word before.
No, thank you. We will give more updates on the full year. As mentioned, the full year will be the opportunity for us to update our guidance, including Tipico, on the midterm. Of course, thank you for attending this call.
Thank you. Bye.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Good evening and welcome to Banijay Group's 2025 first nine months result webcast. This is Marion Heudes Investor Relations. Before we start, let me draw your attention to the disclaimer on Slide two. I also want to remind you that this presentation is now available on the company's website, and the recording of this call will be accessible in the coming days. Your speakers today are François Riahi, our CEO, and Sophie Kurinckx-Leclerc, our CFO. First, François will present our key financial and business highlights for the first nine months. Sophie will then cover the results in more detail before François provides some concluding remarks. We will then open the call for questions. Over to you, François.
Thank you, Marion. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During the first nine months of 2025, Banijay Group revenue reached EUR 3.2 billion, up 4% year-on-year. In content production and distribution, we delivered a strong slate of scripted shows to global streaming platforms and linear broadcasters and are seeing the usual seasonality of show deliveries weighted towards Q4. In live event production, we delivered strong growth as we scaled up key immersive experience IP across our global network. While in sports betting and gaming, we delivered once again strong performance across all activities, even when considering the very high comparison base from 2024 and a number of adverse sports results in September. Adjusted EBITDA growth is up 9.8% for the first nine months, with both sides of the business delivering a margin improvement.
On the Banijay Entertainment and live side, this was thanks to the positive timing of major scripted deliveries at higher margin rates, while at Banijay Gaming, this improvement was driven by good cost discipline, partially offset by French tax increases in Q3 and the adverse results already mentioned. As a result, adjusted net income was up 9.3% to EUR 271 million. We maintain a high level of cash conversion at 78%, and our leverage is stable versus the end of 2024 at 2.9 times. Let's move to business highlights now, starting with Banijay Entertainment, our content production and distribution business. As the number one European studio for scripted shows, we have once again delivered global hits this year for both streamers and linear broadcasters. During our Capital Markets Day, we highlighted how we are effectively leveraging our English-speaking footprint with streaming platforms to capture market share as they expand.
This is clearly demonstrated during this period. We delivered major global shows that connect global audiences, such as the historical drama House of Guinness, which was the number three English-language series globally and the number one show in the U.K. and Ireland, with over 5 million views. We also delivered local hits that traveled globally, capitalizing on global streaming platform audiences. Swedish dramedy Diary of a Ditched Girl was also a huge success on Netflix, becoming a top 10 non-English-language title globally with 1.3 million views in the week of its release. We continue to deliver more high-quality local content that resonates with local agencies for linear broadcasters like TF1 here in France. This includes the historical drama Montmartre, reaching over 4 million viewers with its first episode, and Rien Ne T'efface, which secured an average of 4.3 million viewers across the week of its release.
Let's move to live experiences, digital, and sports, the strategic growth pillars highlighted at our Capital Markets Day, where we are now delivering concrete progress and scaling fast. First, on the live side, the first nine months saw the fast rollout of Luminescence, the immersive show from LOTCHI acquired in January. Since then, we have rapidly scaled this IP, leveraging our global footprint to move into four new markets: Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S., and there will be three more in 2026. The company is now producing more than three shows per day on average, and the number of tickets sold has tripled year-on-year to almost 500,000. This marks our first live IP acquisition and a rapid, fully organic rollout.
Looking ahead, we will continue to identify and scale high-potential live IPs across our global footprint, including our own IPs like Black Mirror, which will be in 2026. Second, on the digital and AI side, we continue to strengthen our innovation, talent, and technology infrastructure, forming partnerships with innovative tech platforms to accelerate catalog monetization and expanding our presence on YouTube, which is, of course, a key priority, through collaborations with content creators. A few examples: we partner with the French company MomentsLab to drive AI-driven solutions for smarter video indexing, discovery, and content accessibility, enabling us to repurpose and monetize our leading content catalog at scale across channels. Working with YouTube, we also launched Banijay Creator Studio, both in France and in the U.K., to tap into the fast-growing creator economy.
This initiative will bridge the gap between creators and creatives by inviting YouTubers to reinvent iconic television shows for digital audiences. Third, at the junction of sports and digital, we are actively developing multiple initiatives in this growing segment. A recent example is the launch of SCF in Benelux, the first ANVB-registered football club powered by leading digital creators. All these digital initiatives open new revenue streams, from sponsorships to digital advertising and content monetization, and we will continue to develop these pioneering initiatives across our markets. Moving now to Banijay Gaming, which saw a strong 23% increase in unique active players. As I say every quarter, this is the most important KPI to look at when you want to assess the commercial performance of the platform.
This UIP increase is especially impressive given the high comparison basis with last year's busy sports calendar, with Euro 2024 and the Olympics, and it's thanks to our proven proactive acquisition and retention strategy. Adverse sports results in September resulted in lower sports revenues. As you've seen in previous years, this temporary volatility is part of operating in this space, with sometimes unfavorable months followed by a natural catch-up in subsequent periods. In casino and poker, there was very strong performance: 16% revenue growth in casino and 33% in poker, so it's more in line with the increase in UIP, driven by the new poker platform introduced at the end of last year, which is, of course, very satisfactory as moving from an external platform to an internal platform has boosted the revenues.
Last week, we announced a transformational deal to combine Betclic and Tipico to create a European champion in sports betting and online gaming, and I'll come back to that later. In this context, strong technological foundations like our high-performing poker platform become even more strategic, with the opportunity to unlock easy synergy opportunities that have already been identified. That's all from me for now. I give the floor to Sophie.
Thank you, François. Let's start with group revenue for the first nine months, where we delivered 4% growth at constant exchange rates to reach EUR 3.2 billion. Q3 revenue was down very slightly at constant exchange rates. Thanks to this growth in revenues and our effective cost control, adjusted EBITDA grew 9.8% at constant exchange rates. We also saw our adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 18.5%. This was mainly driven by the greater contribution from Banijay Gaming, which has a higher margin. At Banijay Entertainment, EBITDA margin also increased due to a different timing of scripted deliveries at higher margin rates like The Buccaneers or House of Guinness. At the group level, total external and personnel expense rose by just 2.2%, driven by effective cost management across all activities. Looking next at our P&L. LTP expenses were down as anticipated, reflecting the expected trajectory of vesting plans.
The increase in depreciation and amortization is driven by greater recoupment of third-party distribution advance in our content production and distribution business. As well as higher depreciation linked to IT capitalization at Banijay Gaming. The other finance costs mainly include the change in the fair value of financial instruments, including hedging or mainly put and earn-out debt and currency losses and gains. Income tax expense increased in line with activity growth, but looking at the effective tax rate, it has improved slightly year-on-year. Adjusted net income was up 9.3% to EUR 271 million. Let's go now to results by business, starting with content production, distribution, and live events. Revenues were up 1.7% to EUR 2.1 billion at constant exchange rates, which is a solid performance. As usual.
There is an expected seasonality effect with an amplified volume of show deliveries and production of events weighted towards the end of the year. Looking at revenue by activity, content production and distribution revenues were stable and reflect the phasing of deliveries at year-end. While underlying activity remains dynamic, with a strong slate of scripted shows delivered to both streamers and linear broadcasters. For live experience and other, the first nine months was a particularly strong period, as highlighted by François earlier. Growth of 15% reflects firstly the consolidation of LOTCHI since early 2025. Delivering notable success through its rollout across France and internationally. There was also a solid performance from Banijay Wonder Studios, with a seasonality effect resulting in increased show deliveries during Q4 2025. Let's look at content production and distribution earnings and cash flow next.
Adjusted EBITDA was up 6.7% at constant exchange rates, a very good result supported by revenue growth, favorable timing effect on scripted deliveries at higher margins and cost savings. Higher CapEx mainly reflects higher third-party distribution advances at Banijay Rights and higher investment in digitalization. The change in working capital and income tax paid mainly reflects the timing effect on scripted deliveries, with major scripted shows delivered before the end of September in 2025, compared to a high weighting of scripted show deliveries in Q4 last year. This reflects a return to a more normal seasonality compared to 2024, consistent with trends seen in 2022 and 2023. Adjusted free cash flow conversion was 63%. Next, let's look at online sports betting and gaming, where we saw solid growth of 8.5%.
At constant exchange rates, even when taking into consideration the high comparison basis with last year, as previously mentioned by François. Sportsbook revenues were up 5% despite the high comparison basis with last year, and the temporary impact of unfavorable football sports results in September 2025. As already mentioned earlier, this business is naturally exposed to short-term volatility in sports results. We will see the catch-up of this one-off effect in the coming months, but conservatively, expect this to happen beyond the end of this financial year, given the sports results seen in October. In online casino, poker and turf performance was strong across all geographies, with revenue up 21%. Driven by the strong adoption of the new poker platform. Supported by high player engagement and continued positive momentum in online casino. Looking at earnings now, Banijay Gaming continues to deliver solid profitability and free cash flow.
Adjusted EBITDA was up 12.9% at constant exchange rates, with a margin of 110 basis points, thanks to continued cost discipline, including lower marketing costs as a percentage of revenues. This was partially offset by higher betting tax in France, which came into effect in July 2025. Adjusted free cash flow conversion remained high at 93%. Over the first nine months of 2025, adjusted operating free cash flow was temporarily impacted by one-off items and sports calendar effects. First, one-offs related to the exceptional 2024 performance, with cash outflows occurring in 2025. These affected both the change in working capital, notably due to 2024 performance-related payouts cashed out this year, and income tax paid, which includes an exceptional EUR 27 million payment linked to the strong results achieved in 2024.
Second, the sports calendar and sports outcomes created timing effects on working capital, particularly on betting taxes, marketing spend, and other taxes. This is pure cut-off effects. Excluding the first element I mentioned relating to one-off, adjusted operating free cash flow would be up 1%. Compared to adjusted EBITDA growth of 13%. The delta is explained by the sports calendar and sports results outcomes in September. These calendar effects are expected to gradually normalize towards year-end. Looking ahead, 2026 will benefit from the return of a major tournament cycle, including the FIFA World Cup. Looking at cash flow generation now.
Adjusted free cash flow reached EUR 465 million. This resulted in a cash conversion rate after capex and lease payments of 78%. In line with our guidance for the year. Adjusted operating free cash flow was EUR 264 million. Given the normal seasonality effect, we expect strong cash collection in Q4. The group's net debt stands at just under EUR 2.8 billion. The increase in net debt mainly reflects the seasonality of the activity and cash payments, as well as the payment of the dividend during the period. Overall, we continue to have a strong cash position. A significant unwritten secured credit line. That is all from me. I will now hand back to François for some concluding remarks.
Thank you, Sophie. As you can see, our performance in the first nine months of the year demonstrated that we are clearly delivering on our strategy. Overall, it was a strong first nine-month performance for the group, with 10% earnings growth and a solid contribution from all activities. Banijay Entertainment saw stable growth, while Banijay Live demonstrated that it is an increasingly significant strategic growth driver, as explained during our CMD. This positive momentum is also expected to increase in the final quarter of the year, thanks to major shows in the pipeline at Banijay Wonder Studios. Banijay Gaming once again showed its profitability, delivering continued strong performance across all activities, despite a high comparison basis with last year, tax increases in France, and unfavorable sports results in September, which should not mask the strong performance of our business once again.
We demonstrated our credentials as a natural consolidator in the entertainment industry, with the acquisition of Tipico to create a European champion in sports betting and online gaming. I will come back on it in a minute. In terms of our outlook for 2025, we expect to deliver low single-digit organic revenue growth from Banijay Entertainment and Banijay Live, which reflects the postponement of some deliveries to Q1 at Banijay Entertainment level. On the Banijay Gaming side, because of negative sports results in September, not reversed in October, as explained by Sophie, we expect to land around 10% organic revenue growth for this business, which is a strong result for 2025 compared to a very, very strong 2024. Despite these primarily timing effects, we confirm our guidance of mid to high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and about 80% of adjusted free cash flow conversion.
Overall, we foresee a strong full year for the group. Before we take your questions, a quick update on the largest acquisition made by the group so far. Tipico is the undisputed leader in sports betting and gaming in Germany and Austria. In 2024, it had revenues of EUR 1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA around EUR 480 million, meaning a similar scale to Betclic. With Tipico and Admiral in Austria, it has two major brands with strong customer loyalty ratings and brand awareness. Nine out of 10 sports bettors in Germany know Tipico, and on iOS and Android, Tipico is the best-rated app. This recognition as a sports betting leader has been built through a 360-degree offering, combining 2 million digitally unified players with 1,250 betting shops across Germany and Austria. This means that Banijay Gaming will have a physical retail presence in these two countries.
Leveraging a market-leading proprietary tech platform, Tipico has a strong track record of market share growth and has significant room to grow further with a large untapped market in Germany and some potential new offerings in Austria. As a result, Banijay Gaming will be a leading European champion in sports betting and online gaming. It will have a combined presence in six countries with top two positions in all, including three out of the five largest countries in the European Union, and will be the fourth biggest European operator and the largest sports betting operator in continental Europe. There is a clear strategic fit between the two companies. Together, we will have an even more diversified geographical footprint, a multi-channel offering, a strong cultural alignment, and a state-of-the-art technology platform.
The deal is fully backed at Banijay Gaming level by a financing package for a principal amount worth EUR 3 billion and a return by Betclic's main financing partners, including the refinancing of Tipico Group's existing debt and the cash out from CVC and Tipico's managers relative to a majority of their stake in Tipico. It is also worth mentioning that we expect fast delivery driven by strong cash generation. Recent confirmation of Moody's rating on Betclic's existing Term Loan B is a clear signal of confidence in the Tipico acquisition. In terms of next steps, the proposed transaction is subject to customary conditions precedent, in particular merger control and gambling regulator approvals. We also plan to divest our stake in Betatom. Given the fact that there's no overlapping between the two companies, the closing of the transaction is expected by mid-2026.
This financially accurate deal perfectly illustrates our position as a natural consolidator of the entertainment industry. We are acquiring a highly profitable and cash-generative company, allowing us to achieve our strategic ambitions and create value for Banijay Group shareholders. Post-transaction, the new Banijay Group will, on the basis of 2024 pro forma, deliver around EUR 6.4 billion, which is an increase of EUR 1.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in 2024 of the combined entity is EUR 1.4 billion pro forma, representing a 22% margin compared to 19% before transaction. Adjusted free cash flow is EUR 1.1 billion, and adjusted operating free cash flow is EUR 1 billion, representing strong conversion rates of 81% and 71%, respectively. Again, these are figures for 2024. It will be more in 2025 and 2026.
We will update our financial targets for 2028 in our full year 2025 results, but we can already tell you that we expect to generate approximately EUR 100 million of synergies on a yearly basis in 2028. This all adds up to a highly attractive value proposition, combining high margins, strong cash generation, and a leverage ratio below 2.5 times within three years. Excluding the exercise of call options to increase our stake in Banijay Gaming, the leveraging should be around 0.5 times each year. After years of organic development in the sports betting and gaming industry, focusing on building the best infrastructure platform and delivering the highest growth in the market, we are now reaching a major milestone with this consolidation, and it is a major step in the story of Banijay Group. That's all from me. Thank you for your attention, and back to you, Marion.
Thank you, François. It is now time for questions. Please state your name and company. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone, and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one, one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please use the Q&A box. Click submit. We will take our first question. Your first question comes from the line of Silvia Cuneo from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good evening, everyone. I'd like to ask three questions from my side. The first, regarding the revised revenue outlook, what is the current level of visibility you have on Q4, particularly for Banijay Entertainment postponed deliveries and the gaming sports calendar? Are there any other risks to be aware of that could further impact the revenue performance relative to the updated guidance in Q4? Secondly, considering the commentary around the seasonality and postponement of certain content deliveries in entertainment impacting 2025, could you provide more color on the overall demand landscape for content heading into 2026, both from the global streamers and the traditional broadcasters as well? The third question is on the Q3 adjusted EBITDA margins. For both Banijay Entertainment and Live and Banijay Gaming, they were ahead of our expectations despite some revenue deceleration. Could you elaborate on the typical seasonal effects that influence the profitability in Q3? Looking ahead in Q4, what makes you confident you can still meet the unchanged guidance? Thank you.
Sorry. Thank you, Silvia. Sorry, I was on mute. I was saying, on the outlook for Q4, of course, we have very good visibility on Banijay Entertainment. On Banijay Gaming, we are always dependent on sports results. As Sophie was saying, we have chosen this time to be a little bit conservative because September was a very adverse month for sports results. October was not so good. That is why we decided to be conservative. Actually, November is starting very well because there will be the catch-up. I think we are very confident on the gaming, but you can never predict the sports results.
There are still a lot of Champions League games and there is still some volatility. Again, we have taken a conservative approach on our outlook on Q4. On your question about the demand for content, I think w e have seen a good demand for content from streamers. Maybe a little bit less than what we expected on broadcasters, and with some, I would say, postponements at this level between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. On the margin, you want to elaborate?
Yes. On the margin, on Banijay Entertainment and Banijay Live, as we mentioned, we delivered during Q3 2025 high-premium scripted shows like Buccaneers or House of Guinness with higher margin rates than, well, with higher margin rates. It was not the case last year as we delivered this kind of high-premium scripted shows in Q4. That is why you have an increase of the EBITDA margin rate. On Banijay Gaming, as you know, this is a first fixed-cost business, so we still had an increase of our business and revenue, etc., during the first nine months. That is why also the EBITDA margin is increasing. Also, we had less, well, we had a very strong cost control, and for example, less marketing cost. I remind you that last year we had the Euro Cup plus the Olympic Games, and so we increased the marketing cost. Proportionally to the revenue in 2025, as we do not have such big sports events, we have not such important marketing costs. That is why also this margin rate is increasing.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Conor O'Shea from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes, thank you. Good evening, everybody. Three questions from my side as well. First question. Just to make sure I'm understanding this right. For the full year, guidance on adjusted EBITDA at a group level, I think, is mid to high single digit versus almost around 10% for the nine months. Just wondering, is there anything explaining that? Is it seasonal marketing around the fourth quarter, maybe in the gaming business, that explains that sequential slowdown? Secondly, I think I saw something in the press about The Independents deal maybe being complicated by a slowdown in the luxury sector. Maybe you can comment on that. The last question, just in terms of some of the proposals in terms of the budget going through in France. Any impact that you see that you would call out for 2026, either on corporate tax or on betting tax or anything additional there would be very useful. Thank you.
Thank you, Conor. Maybe Sophie on the first question.
On the guidance of the EBITDA.
In fact, this guidance is maintained. It's what we expected. We maintain our guidance. It's true that we are higher today. I think Sophie was mentioning a kind of different mix of delivery when it comes to premium scripted on Banijay Entertainment. There's also, on the gaming side, if you remember, unfortunately, the tax increase in France, which happened in the second half. It has an impact, of course, on the EBITDA of the gaming for the second half only. A stronger impact on Q4 than on the first nine months. On your second question about The Independents, I think we always said we are going to decide on the exercise of the goal next year. Nothing changed.
Nothing changed also on the fact that we consider it as a very good business. I think, yes, the luxury sector has suffered. In 2025, but clearly, they have been very resilient, which is, I would say, a real testimony to their business model. Not everything that is written in the press is true. On your first question, I must say it's very difficult to follow. The budget today. We cannot really say much about it. Now it's going to the [audio distortion]. We'll see what happens there. No, it's difficult to comment at this stage. Of course, I recall that. I just said that on your first question, we are going for a strong tax increase in France already this year. I think it shouldn't be the case for next year, hopefully.
Okay. Understood. Very clear. Many thanks, François.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Two on Banijay Gaming, please. First, given the maximum player payout threshold in France, that seems like a pretty good mechanism to recoup within the year, Sophie, but your comment there is a bit more cautious. Is that around ability to capture volumes if you move the lines too far, or is that really relating to your business outside of France that would affect your ability to get back to where you need to be in the course of the year? And then second of all, you mentioned the World Cup. I wonder if you could give us any outline thoughts about how material you expect that boost to be, given, obviously, it's a different format with more games, but also a time zone adjustment from your European market. If we think back in the history of what these tournaments have been, how do you think about the World Cup for next year? Thanks.
Thank you. On the first.
On the first question, you're right in France, but we are not only in France. The adverse results have been seen in our different countries. That's why we chose to be a little bit prudent on the expectations.
Yeah. On your second question. On the World Cup, of course, every two years, it's a big event for us, Euro or World Cup. I think when you look that we are targeting a double-digit growth on a year. Last year, we had the African Cup in Ivory Coast, where we are leader. We had the Euro. We had the Olympic Games in Paris, where we are leader. It was a very, very strong year for us in terms of sports calendar. Still, we managed to do a double-digit growth this year. It's a great achievement. Next year, of course, World Cup will be a very important element, both for Betclic and Tipico, by the way. We will benefit from it also on our acquisition. We believe that the time zone is a good one. Today, the time when.
The games will be played. Should be good for Europe. We see it as a major event and a revenue booster, as usual. We do not expect any. The fact that it is in the United States is not an issue for us, given the programming of the games. As you said, there will be more games. It is a positive, a little bit like the Champions League. The fact to have more games in Champions League has also been positive. We see it really positively. Of course, we will give our view on 2026 in next March. Yeah, that is a very positive element for 2026.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Annik Maas from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good evening. Apologies if I have to ask the same questions, but I've been partially cut from the call. On that note, the first one is, could you please comment on the fourth quarter? Is the weakness only going to come from the entertainment bit, and Live is expected to perform as it has year to date, or is there also something that we should be aware of in Live? The second one is on The Independents. With the luxury downturn, you haven't really mentioned The Independents today, and you used to speak about it a lot. Just tell us how they performed over the last quarter, please. I guess with your Tipico acquisition, and I guess the financials of gaming, which are a bit more attractive necessarily than content. Could there be a scenario where you actually sell your content business and focus purely on gaming? Thank you.
Thank you. On your first question, Sophie, you want to elaborate on the Q4?
On the Q. On the Q4. We will see a little bit more growth in content and distribution, but still a strong growth in the live business.
On your second question, yes. Also, I want to emphasize a little bit on the live because I think it's really positive. It's something we started like two years ago as a key growth driver, and we have been a lot of different things, and it pays off. It's really for us a very important key driver in the future. Next year, we will launch our immersive show on Black Mirror. It will be the first time we launch an immersive show on one of our IP. We have a lot of projects, so we believe it's a very important development, and it's moving so already this year. On your question of The Independents, actually, I said it before, but maybe I understand you were disconnected. The luxury has been tough.
The luxury i ndustry has gone through difficulties in 2025, but really, the independents are doing really well. They have been capable to really gain some market share thanks to their setup. It's really a testimony to the buildup they have been doing. The fact to have so many geographies and so many capabilities is a really important differentiator to the clients. They are really having a good performance given the circumstances. We have a really positive view on their performance. On the Tipico acquisition, it's a major event for us. We stick to our strategy that we presented during our Capital Markets Day, which is that we have very positive consolidation opportunities on all our activities. Here we are demonstrating it on the gaming side, but we believe that we can have also very good opportunities on the content side, and that. Our position in the content side is also very good. No, we don't sell our business.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take our next question. Your next question comes from the line of Anna Patrice from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you for all the information. I missed some of the answers. If you could repeat a little bit, what was the impact of the increased taxes on the betting in France in Q4? The impact on the EBITDA, and what is the expected impact on the EBITDA in Q4? My impression is that the margin development was better than expected for you in Q3. You explained that partially this is due to lower marketing expenses in the betting. What are the expectations for Q4, and what was development last year? Do you expect that, again, the market will be lower, so you will have better margins or supported margins in the betting? What about the entertainment and live margin development in Q4? Again, it seems that the expectations are now a bit higher, given that the guidance for the EBITDA is not changed, despite the change for the top line. Thank you.
Thank you. You want to answer, Sophie, on the betting tax in France, the impact?
What we planned and what we gave during our last calls and communication was an impact of EUR 20 million for 2024. Given the adverse sports results that we had in September and not so good in October, we could expect a smaller impact in Q4. It depends, of course, on the results of the sports events. On the second one, in fact, we gave a guidance for 2025 on the global growth of EBITDA at group level. I will not provide you with a guidance on a specific EBITDA, but clearly, we should remain in the same level of profitability for the business.
Of course, we maintain our.
What I meant is— Yes. Sorry to interrupt. What I meant is that you reiterated your EBITDA guidance for the full year, even though your top line guidance is slightly lower. That means that EBITDA margin is higher. I was wondering, what is the reason for the expected higher EBITDA margin versus what you expected before? Is my question clear?
Yeah. Yeah. No, yeah. I think we are going to deliver a better margin than expected, yes.
What is the reason behind?
It's a different one. It's like the thing—yes. What we said is that, even here, we have a better margin than previous year. We will keep the same trend. Sorry, if I understood well, you want to know if the EBITDA margin will be better than expected in our guidance? Yes, mechanically speaking, of course. It will come from different items. The first may be a slightly different mix of the different business due to this growth, but also higher margin on some scripted shows in the production and entertainment business, as I already mentioned at the end of Q3. A cost control in the gaming business, as we mentioned also for Q3.
Yeah. I think for us, EBITDA is really the main focus in terms of steering the company. In fact, when there's a little bit less of revenues for different reasons, we reduce the cost. I think it's a good demonstration of our flexibility. Even if the adjustment we do on the growth is limited, it's a small adjustment.
Okay. That's all. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. There seems to be no further audio questions. I would like to hand back for webcast questions.
Yes. The first question on the webcast is, could you elaborate more on Banijay Gaming results? Backing out Q3 numbers, these were flat on EBITDA, down significantly. Should we expect the same for Q4? Finally, could you provide information on how you plan to finance the Tipico acquisition? Will this be a broadly syndicated loan?
Yeah. As we mentioned during the call, Q3, we are comparing a year with a Euro in 2024, and also with adverse sports results in September that we did not have last year. It is to compare on the Q3. Yes, there are reasons why our results in Q3 in Banijay Gaming are not progressing. All in all, I think I would like to underline once again, we are very happy with our development in sports betting and gaming. When you have an increase by 23% of your players, it is a very good result. When you have a double-digit growth compared to a year with a lot of events in sport, you also have to see that we are a company which is very much sports-driven compared to others. We are really connected to the sports events. On how we are going to finance the Tipico acquisition. As I mentioned earlier, today, this is financed by. This is secured by existing banks of the group. Of course, we are going to go to the market to finance it on the credit market.
Okay. Let's move now to the second question. Please, can you give more details on what is driving the show postponement in the entertainment revenue guidance? Are these delays in Q1 2026, and will this impact show orders for 2026 as a result?
In the current market environment, and more specifically maybe in the U.S., our clients prefer to recognize their content cost in 2026 instead of 2025. That is why we saw this slippage for a small number of shows that have been postponed in 2026.
The last question.
The same.
Okay. The same. If we do not have any other questions, we can close the call if you want to say your last words.
No, thank you. We will give more updates on the full year. As mentioned, the full year will be the opportunity for us to update our guidance, including Tipico, on the midterm. Of course, thank you for attending this call.
Thank you. Bye.