Okay, good afternoon to everyone here in the room, and to those on the webcast. It's my pleasure to host Harold van den Broek, CFO of Heineken. Really appreciate you taking the time being here today with us. Let's get right into it. On the outlook for 2025, you recently guided 4%-8% for the year. Can you just walk us through the plus and takes towards the upper end and lower end of that range?
Yeah. First of all, Sanjeet, and whole audience, thank you for having me. Coming to your question, the 4%-8% range is consistent with what we guided in 2024 as well. I think it's important that in a world which is, throwing its challenges at many of us, that consistency is something that we wanted to signal. That's where 4%-8% was an important factor in that. We also know that we are operating in a world which continues to bring surprises. For example, we were not very sure about the consumer sentiment in Europe. This was an important swing factor for us. We also saw continued volatility in Africa, for example.
Last but not least, we had a period where our Vietnam business, which is one of our top three businesses, really went into, let's call it, a more depressed economic scenario, and that had its impact on our portfolio, but also the on- and the off-trade. Therefore, of course, there is the tariff discussion that is live and kicking every single day at this moment in time. We really looked at what are some of the scenarios that we should bake into the forecast and into our outlook guidance. Therefore, both the upper end of the range as well as the lower end of the range are real possibilities, but that's where we ended up.
Got it. I think so far several consumer staples companies and yourselves have already cautioned on a relatively soft start to the year.
Yeah.
Can you just talk a little bit about some of the volume headwinds you're facing near term? How broad-based is that, is that across your footprint?
Yeah. Important to connect the two questions, right? We started with the full-year outlook, knowing that quarter one was going to be one of our weaker quarters. So it should not be a surprise that, that 4%-8% bakes that in. It is really because there are a number of what we call now technical factors, right? We have one less selling day. We had an earlier Tet. We have Easter that is now 17 days later. All of this actually makes a significant difference across businesses across the world. This is Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Europe, Vietnam, all big markets that are impacted by that technical adjustment.
Maybe it is also good to give some more color to it because we also, just in Europe, ended up with quite significant discussions about price and price negotiations. Now, this is always the case, so I don't want to make a bigger play out of it than it deserves. Yeah, there were some very hefty discussions with retailers in Europe, and that had a little bit of a knock-on impact as well. Maybe just to give that message here as well.
Got it. Just taking a little bit more high- level, Heineken and the beer category have had a lot of external shocks in recent years. As you reflect on the volatility you've seen in markets like Vietnam, Nigeria, the inflation shock in Europe, what changes have been made in the organization to be able to better manage through these external shocks, which seems to be normal course of business these days?
Yeah. Indeed. I really appreciate the question. Allow me to give a bit more full perspective on this question. Let's decompose. When we went into COVID and came out of COVID, internally in Heineken, we had this statement that says, "We're navigating the crisis whilst building the future." We did. We were very response and responsive and agile in how we navigated market opening, market closing, and all of the, and we felt good about that because we dealt with that reality almost on a day-to-day basis. We also realized that we're a very operating company-centric company. The frontline enablement in our business is very big. Therefore, what we now start to learn is that it's great to be responsive and agile when a risk hits a particular market.
When you see macro trends starting to come into play, higher energy costs, interest rates for volatility, fluctuations in exchange rate, you need a different risk management around that. One of the things that we really have now learned the hard way, I would say, and want to thank investors for their patience, is that, that macro risk management is now a part of how we do business. When we have our annual planning, when we have our re- strategic planning, we much more deeply look at macroeconomic drivers and what we now call outlier events.
This may sound relatively basic, but it is quite an important cultural change. Also, because we say the world is just a bit more unpredictable, there are more macro risks. It's our job to manage that across our whole portfolio. Early identification and scenario planning have become really much more part of how we plan and conduct our business.
Got it. It's been four years or so since the Evergreen strategy was implemented, and the cost productivity agenda seems to be well embedded now in the organization. Where are the future cost opportunities coming from?
Yeah. So indeed. First, thanks for saying that. It's also something that is another reflection of the change in Heineken. One of the early indicators when I joined four years ago is, like, Heineken know how to grow, but productivity from that growth was substandard. We really intentionally built a cost performance muscle in the organization, and that's now four years in a row. I've explained it many times. I have really got pretty good forward visibility about where cost productivity is taking hold. Where do I see the next iteration? Because after four years, some of the, let's call it the low-hanging fruits in the markets, they are gone. We really have now got good performance management on cost across the majority of our organizations.
We want to continue that because, to be honest, every market, every operating company always finds new opportunities. That is one muscle that we're training and we'll continue to train. The second one is much more about what are the next stage interventions. We see, for example, that we're only halfway through to productivity optimization in the supply chain in Europe. This is a local market by local market decision, and it takes time because we have to first build capability in a brewery before we can take a brewery out. Halfway there, more opportunity to go. The second thing is that with an increased digital landscape, more harmonized processes, we really see opportunities to go above operating company so that not everyone has to do the same purchase-to-pay process. We can do that for multiple markets.
It sounds basic, shared services, and part of it is we're there, but it also comes with advanced logistics planning, advanced planning capabilities. It is not just your mundane transactions. It is also more sophisticated end-to-end processes where I see still quite significant opportunity ahead of us. We are already doing that in parts, but not at scale.
Got it. Another big part of Evergreen was the pivot towards value growth. From a volume growth mindset. There's been a big focus on pricing and getting your fair share of pricing in the markets. Has this potentially gone too far given the weak volumes we've seen in recent years? As cost inflation is now subsiding, what are you doing differently to drive consistent volume growth, which hasn't been part of the algorithm in recent years?
Let me first reconfirm what you said at the beginning. We'd like to be a growth company. That's really our ambition, our aspiration, our reason to be for the last 160 years. This is also very much top of mind in how we look forward. The healthy balance between volume and value is what matters because ultimately, more consumers consuming more occasions and being happy with the products that we serve, this is really the backbone of what we believe is healthy growth. Volume growth really matters. It's also a reality that in the past four, five years, we see two events, one deliberate and intentional, the other one not, that has not helped us in our volume growth ambition. The first, which was very intentional, is we let go, as we did our portfolio transformation of low-margin businesses. This was significant.
This was about 3%-4% of our total volume base that we just let go because we really wanted to convert to a more premium portfolio. You know, Sanjeet, that every quarter we're now showing beer growth, total growth, premium growth, Heineken growth. Heineken has grown 75% in the past five years. That's not by accident. It's by design. That was intentional. The second thing is the fallout from COVID is that we still have an on-trade estate that is 10% lower than what we had before COVID. This is not only because it was not there. People have to pay taxes. Energy costs have gone up. Labor costs have gone up. Availability of labor. That has been a bit of a headwind. It will take time to build that back, but rest assured that volume growth is very important for us.
Now, on your point on price mix, we believe that great brands can carry pricing. We think about that as CPI-led pricing, anywhere between 80%-90% is what we believe. Market by market, there are differences. To ensure affordability, that is a real big part of it. The premiumization comes on top.
Got it. Some of your competitors have made some big moves outside of beer recently. What is Heineken doing in Beyond Beer , across Europe? Is the organization, you think, making bold enough moves here? I guess tied to that, you do have a multi-beverage model in several parts of the world. Can this also work in developed markets?
Yeah. No, our philosophy is slightly different, for now. We believe that when we go beyond the beer and cider, which is the core of our portfolio franchise, and we believe that there's a lot of mileage still in beer and cider, also for growth for the future, that we, in many markets, as you rightly say, do have a Beyond Beer portfolio because it addresses certain user consumer occasions. First, in Africa, we have stout, we have malts, we have energy drinks in some of the places, but we also have a platform of water business or Coca-Cola bottling. They do need to fit our route to market and our asset model. We see this as complementary to our portfolio, not as a broader portfolio that we want to build out over time.
As you rightly say, in some of the markets, we also have partnerships with spirits. Why? Same point. We leverage our asset base as a result of that. It does not mean that it is part of our core growth franchise as we think about it going forward. We innovate in other spaces. We have, for example, innovated in Asia with the Heineken Silver. Fantastic success, really, really converting an uptrading consumer because of a better food pairing. We also see the growth of Heineken 0.0 continuing. We are now in 150 markets, and it continues to be double, triple the growth of the average beer category. We think we should focus there.
Got it. I'd like to move a little bit back to Europe. Volumes are around 5%-6% below 2019 levels. Clearly, inflation's played a part in that. There's a lot of noise out there on what's structural, what is Gen Z moderating. How are you thinking about the separation of what's cyclical and structural across Europe in particular?
It links a little bit to the previous comment when I was talking about the volume and value growth. The biggest reason why the volume indeed is about 5% lower, as you rightly called out, is the fact that on-trade has not fully recovered. This is important because there are simply 10% less outlets, and this is where we were very much represented. It will, at least if we look at the learnings from the financial crisis, take time, but people still enjoy going out to bars. When they consume and when they have an experience, they look for a premium occasion and a premium, premium and experience. For me, that volume and value balance is always important to get right.
We also were very intentional in pricing for inflation, about a year, a year and a half ago, but also said that it's super important in 2024 to see whether pricing sticks, but also that volume returns. Beer volume was actually positive in 2024, and therefore we will be very moderate in our pricing in order to make sure that we bring the joy of, of having a good beer back to the equation. Important last point, Sanjeet, if you allow me, is we want to invest in this category. Innovation, consumer occasions, consumer experiences, this is what makes people love their beer. That is why we really believe that investment to create category growth and strong brand appeal is something we do, and we also do it in Europe.
Got it. Can we touch upon zero alcohol? It was up strongly in Europe last year. You've had a lot of innovations, brand line extensions there. How big is this now with the percentage of your European beer volumes, and where do you think it can get to over the next 5, 10 years?
Let me first dimensionalize it. We call it a Low and No alcohol category , and it's about 8% of our total beer sales in Europe at the moment. It is already a meaningful part of our business. Now, specifically on Zero Zero, we had many of the conversations also today. This is a category that we think should be built over time. We do not want this to just be, let's call it a push strategy because it needs to come into a repertoire, and it has the Heineken logo on it as well. We really see this as a sustainable growth engine of the total Heineken franchise. In markets like Spain and the Netherlands, you really see that it starts taking off, and then it pivots, and it could be about 10%, only Zero Zero, not Low and No , Zero Zero of the total franchise.
On average, this category is growing 3-4x the rate of the average beer industry. With the right branding, the right activation, like a Formula 1 sponsorship, we believe that there's certainly for the next couple of years a lot of growth to be had from this. We will not, we will not accelerate it for the sake of it. This needs to be built over time systematically.
Got it. There's also been a big focus on premiumization and the portfolio in Europe. However, you know, we see anecdotes in many mature markets of the mainstream segment getting into secular decline, and clearly that's what's paying the bills, in the developed markets. Can you just talk a little bit about how you're getting the balance right between premium and mainstream, particularly across Europe?
Yeah. Also, I really think that this is a very important question, so thanks for asking it. Sometimes we become a little bit too literal in our prioritization. When we're talking about Heineken as the one beer company that has the highest share of premium, the implicit notion is that premium is all that matters. It's not. Mainstream is a super important part of our portfolio, and many loyal beer consumers that we cherish and love actually have their favorite mainstream brand. Indeed, we made one adjustment, very important adjustment to how we talk about portfolio management with our local operating companies, and that is first, consumer segmentation. Secondly, please tell us where mainstream plays a role. Local brands, very important, play a role, and then where premium is starting to come into the equation.
It is a much more complete discussion that we now have with the operating companies, and we still love it. We have now the Darts sponsorship with Foster's. In the U.K., we've introduced Cruzcampo to great success. Grupa Żywiec is growing in their mainstream part of the portfolio. Also there, growth is possible, but you need to have the right portfolio. I think it's a really great call out.
Got it. On margins in Europe, I think we're around 200 basis points below pre-pandemic levels. Clearly, you've highlighted further areas of cost productivity. You're also being a little bit more moderate, perhaps on pricing, but is it realistic for Heineken to recover back to those pre-pandemic margins, or should you be aspiring for even higher margin levels?
I like your ambition. First, let's do the math, right? Because of pricing and premiumization in Europe, on a 5% lower, we have a higher revenue. The percentage is now on a higher base. I just want to call that out. It does not take away anything on your question, but mathematics do matter here. The second thing is, as I just indicated earlier about our cost and savings programs, things take time in Europe.
If you look at opportunities to operationalize a network of breweries, and Magne would say, our supply chain director would say, we shifted from brewery optimization to network optimization. That is easier said because it needs ingredient platforming, innovation platforming, SKU platforming. All of that needs to be put in place in order to run efficient operations in what is now a brewery servicing multiple, multiple markets. We are about halfway through that journey, and there is much more to go after.
Second, as we start putting more harmonized processes in place in Europe, there is a lot still that we can do that does not need to be done in every single market. We see pretty good opportunities to get that margin back to that level that you were aspiring to. Even higher than that, we will talk when we got there first.
Okay. Got it. Pivoting to the Americas region, on Mexico, there's been some contrasting anecdotes from different consumer companies around the current state of the consumer there. Can you just give us your take on how you're seeing the consumer environment in Mexico, and how you're seeing your ability to recover some of the share losses post the Oxxo mixing as well?
Yeah. Let's do this question a bit of justice. We were quite happy with what we saw in 2024. Let's first look back, in Mexico. First, our business did fantastically well financially. There was also good growth in the beer category, solid, low single- digit. It was, I think, a relatively healthy competitive environment. All of us were really focusing hard on building a good quality portfolio of brands, activating route to markets. Very good, robust business to be in and market to be in. As we now look forward to 2025, it's difficult to read what is currently going on in the market. Why?
Because we have the Easter phasing that is different. We have got the GDP growth that is being downgraded by the Mexican Bank. We have got anxiety about tariffs. It's very difficult to see in the short term. When we do the proper consumer panel research and we talk to our customer base, we believe that consumers and customers are pretty resilient. In the short term, whether there will be some knock-on effect from everything that we said, it's a bit difficult for me to assess because of that timing and phasing. Maybe longer term, I would be more confident. In the short term, let's not blink too quickly.
Yeah. If there is a month-on-month less, more or less. That's how I would answer that. Now, on your market share point, we were very happy with the financial performance of the Americas in 2024, as you know. I think the Oxxo mixing brought with us two things. Firstly, a sixth estate, which is now the second- largest retailer in Mexico. Secondly, much more profitability because exclusivity in Oxxo was great from a share perspective. It wasn't great from a profit perspective. We have been successfully able to rebalance that. What we have not been able to do is recover that market share. We believe that it will take many, many steps because we want to do it the right way, with the right brands, the right portfolio, the right route to market. It will take time to recover that, but step by step.
Got it. Brazil, the competitive environment there has been up and down over the last 12 months. How are you seeing the pricing environment at the moment in Brazil this year? I guess, more strategically, you've been proactive in letting go of low- margin volume, but is there a point in time where you need a certain level of stabilization in the economy segment? What are you doing about that?
Yeah. It is important to look at the market context in Brazil. The market is in growth. Also here, a bit like what I said in Mexico, you have, if you look at production data, some months with a plus and some months with a minus, averaging out over a long term, this is a low single- digit growth market. Here is the point about quality of growth that is becoming relevant. When you decompose it in segments, the acceleration of growth is really happening in the premium segment. We also now see mainstream and notably upper mainstream really accelerating. Those are the growth drivers in the market. The economy segment is actually in decline. We see that as underlying healthy uptrading dynamics of good brands in a conducive market, which we like. We do not want to disrupt that.
Our strategy of how we create the right portfolio has been very intentional, and for Heineken, has brought a lot of financial rewards. You and I often had the conversation about when is Brazil going to contribute to the profitability of Heineken. I tell you, over the past three years, it's close to company average profitability now, and we're very proud of the local team who have been able to pull that in place. We don't want this portfolio to be dragged down because we now got, I think, momentum behind our business. To your point, you're also right that the pricing environment has been relatively stable and I think okay-ish, but was dragged down by one competitor, particularly at the low end of the market. We will see how that plays out. We follow our own strategy in that one.
It is true that we really need to look at now we have let go of a lot of low economy businesses. We look at it state by state, customer by customer, because of consumer relevance, what we need to do to get the right portfolio there. I also hope that, that letting go of the economy segment will bottom out not too far away and that we start to see volume also picking up.
Got it. Can you just remind us how much capacity you're bringing online in Brazil over the next few years? You've had phenomenal growth with Heineken and Amstel. Still feels like there's a lot of runway there, but at what point do you feel the need to broaden the portfolio?
Yeah. It is a very active discussion. First question first, Passos, which is becoming operational later this year, is a 5 million capacity that we are going to put into the market, but it is modular. We can actually extend it quite easily to 10 million-12 million hectoliter, but we are going to do that in stages. As you know, a premium portfolio also needs more capacity because the brewing time is longer. That's why it's important that we also balance that.
That's what's going in. We think, I've been in Brazil not so long ago, there's still quite a lot of potential between the premium end of the portfolio. Heineken still has more consumer pull than market share. Amstel, now also an 11 million hectoliter brand, has more consumer pull than what we got market share. There is still mileage there. Of course, we're also looking at what's next, but that's something that we'll tell you in due course.
Got it. Okay. Moving to Asia, it feels like Vietnam is beyond the worst. Can you give us a sense of how the market is performing post the Tet Festival? Do you have a better read of underlying consumer demand? Is Heineken's portfolio in a position yet to start holding or even recouping market share?
Let's start with the first part of your question because it's an important one. Tet seems to be a moderate Tet. The way that we classify it just for the audience is, is it a poor season of Tet? Is it a wonderful one? Or is it a moderate one? It doesn't get more sophisticated than that. It's basically the middle one. It's a moderate Tet. What was important for us is, is it still a premium occasion? Because over the past years, we've seen that mainstream brands have become socially completely acceptable. The good news that we currently see is that, it takes time to see customer and, and therefore consumer replenishment, is that it has still been a premium occasion. Our market share, therefore, has done very well.
During the early part of this year. Now, that matters because the underlying shifts we don't think is going to come back, right? It is really, it was a disproportionately premium market. We believe that that is now sort of settling. The consumer is happier. GDP is ticking up. There is more stability in that market. We believe that the environment, the macro environment, also is actually more positive than what it was a year ago. Yeah, we're cautiously optimistic on Vietnam.
Got it. Your share position, I think the over-indexation to the on-trade the last couple of years was a source of headwind.
Yeah.
You see that stabilizing?
Yeah. We had to change our mind on that. Looking at an aggregate share made no sense a nymore because the market was moving away from us, and we had 90%+ share in premium and 15% share in the mainstream. If the market is moving, it's almost impossible to get your total average share together and to grow that. We really look at it in component parts. The component parts are, we held on to our share in premium where Tiger was substituted by Heineken, growing high 50% and continuing, super, super well done by the local team. In mainstream, we're actually gaining share. How that now balances out, it will take a little bit more time, but we're actually seeing the component parts starting to work. Over time, that will also lead to overall share gain.
Got it. Moving to India, big strategic focus in recent years. How have you seen the market evolution? I think you've had maybe some pricing skirmishing, skirmishes in a couple of states. Just love to get an update on that and what that means for profitability going forward.
Yeah. I think we would call that a good dialogue indeed, but we believe that the Indian market is actually very, very healthy at this moment in time. We see also all the international brewers really trying to play a role in premiumizing and normalizing the category. This is, I think, very good for beer consumption and alcohol acceptance throughout. We're a responsible business throughout as an industry, and we'd like that to be felt also in India. Markets are growing between 6% and 7%. We believe that that's actually pretty healthy from a volume point of view.
Particularly when you're talking to, let's call it government officials, but also to younger audiences, you really see that there is more normalization coming from a-- let's call it authorities perspective, but you also see that younger consumers are actually attracted to the category. This is good because there is a lot of people that are looking for normalized alcohol occasions in order to socialize and to enjoy a beer. We believe that this is actually important for us. To your second point, it does need further work. There is a state-by-state negotiation always on excise, on pricing. Many of the states do not have free trading arrangements. That is something that we will just do one step at a time, and sometimes that needs a good dialogue.
Got it. I think margins are well below group levels at the moment. I think you're rebuilding back, but is this a market you think can get to group level margins in the foreseeable future? Oh, that will take a long, long time, sir.
Indeed. The way that we define success is let's grow the category, let's normalize the category. Normalize also means that pricing and right portfolio mix need to come into the equation. And then slowly but surely, we will make further margin expansion. That's our definition of success.
Got it.
Group average is not on my mind.
I see. Moving to Africa, and South Africa in particular, it's been a couple of years since you've had Distell under your belt. How do you assess progress now, following the acquisition and the integration, which was quite challenging? Ultimately, is the multi-beverage model working for you in South Africa?
Yeah. Indeed, first and foremost thing to say, we are not yet fully satisfied with the financials and our market share ambition, I'll be the first to acknowledge that. I also believe that this was the right acquisition to do. The beauty of Heineken is that we have long tenures, right? We are a company that is 160 years old and, hopefully, will be the next 160 years still a relevant player in the beverage category. That means that when we make these moves, we're not going in naive. We knew that there was a formidable player that basically we had to compete against. It also did not help that all the approvals were taking more than two years. There was ample time for people to prepare, and that's what we felt. To your point, are we happy with the portfolio?
We're very happy with the portfolio. The Distell part of the portfolio is doing very well. We have now got access to Bernini. Savanna Cider brand is an absolute amazing brand continuing to do well. We see stability in the wine portfolio and in different places in Africa, for example, in Nigeria, we're now starting to experiment at scale with these different parts of the portfolio, and we like what we see. We believe multi-beverage is a place for us to learn, and the Distell acquisition helps us to do that. Very important, the fight is in beer. We also have now introduced the Heineken returnable bottle, and that was an important one because it was a returnable market, but we didn't go there. That basically meant that we were not having the profitability and the right price point, and we're course correcting all of that.
Hard work for the team, but I'm actually quite pleased with the progress that we're making. We also now see some level of stabilization in the financials, and upward we go.
Got it. Outside of South Africa, the region's been negatively impacted by sharp currency devaluations. In several parts. Many markets are now making returns, well below the cost of capital. How are you thinking about balancing volumes versus margin and hard currency profit growth?
Yeah. No, I'm happy that you asked that question also. We've really brought much more to the forefront, particularly in Africa, this notion about are we just growing volumes or are we actually growing volumes that are basically ahead of cost of capital? Because otherwise, you're actually destroying shareholder value. This has become much more actually an incentive for the Africa business team where we're looking at balance sheet health, we're looking at portfolio health, but we're also looking at structure of the P&L in order to make sure that what we grow actually is above the cost of capital.
This has become really a new dimension of how we define success in Africa. For example, the learnings that we had in Nigeria have been in time transferred to Ethiopia. There are a lot of things that are different when you put that lens on the business, but that's what we've done, and we will continue to do so.
How is the management in the region incentivized? It's a, an element of hard currency profit targets there, or is it constant currency or?
Yeah.
How has that evolved?
Yeah. We've made a very significant shift. In the past, it was really market share, volume, operating profit, organic, to your point, right? So currency effects taken out. This has now completely changed.
Yeah.
In the case of Nigeria, Ethiopia, other susceptible markets like Egypt, we really have three different lenses. The first one is let's really do all the way down to the bottom, which is net profit including financing cost. Second, currency matters. We want to see reported as well as organic currency because both are relevant. Thirdly, health of your balance sheet and balance sheet exposures. They have become financially extremely astute in a very short space because the business needs to operate in that, in these conditions. A very big shift in some of those markets.
Got it. Just taking it back to the group level. You've highlighted a sharper focus on return on invested capital across the organization. How is that translating to how you think about CapEx? CapEx has been on quite an elevated base the last few years. It's come down to around 8% of sales, but still feels there's a lot of investments going into the business. Could you just decompose that for us?
Yeah, for sure. First, maybe good for the audience to know, we also have a big part of returnable bottles investment. Because they rotate, in that CapEx number. This is not just machineries and installations that you have across the world. Secondly, indeed, we have had to ramp up because there was a lot of investment needed in growth markets. We expanded capacity in Vietnam.
We expanded capacity in Brazil to cater for that growth that we had. These were markets that we are now operating at scale. As we just discussed, both in Brazil and Mexico, we still have two big breweries to build. There is India where lots of growth is happening, but also that needs an infrastructure. That is a little bit the lay of the land on how we think about it. We also want to make the envelope smaller. We already navigated from nine to eight already for 2024. We did that in 2025. We are again navigating to eight.
Going forward, we will first have to, let's call it, absorb the two new big breweries. After that, we really are looking at how we can bring that down further. Important is footprint matters. We do not consolidate China, as you know. I know that capital efficiency in markets like Vietnam and China is of a different order of magnitude. To have the real comparison, you really need to look at brewery footprint and region by region, you know, optimizations.
Got it. You had a big improvement on working capital last year. However, there still feels like there's room to do more there, and your ratios are inferior to a lot of your competitors. How much of that is structural, and how much can you really go after? Working capital?
First, thanks for the compliment on 2024. I also was very happy with the free operating cash flow generation. It was part a rebound from a relatively poor 2023, as we also said. There is something really structural going on. To your point, I really think that there's more mileage to go after in working capital optimization. We're not yet doing that at scale. We have, because I said in the CME two years, four years ago, what is it, 2022, three years ago, that let's tackle cost first and really build cost discipline in the organization, and then we move to capital and capital discipline. The time is now. We really started to put proper practices in place, but in some of the markets. Mexico is now in negative working capital. Brazil is in negative working capital.
We're now starting to scale that across more markets because we know what to do. There is more to come, but we'll do that step by step also.
Where do you see the levers across inventory management, receivables, payables?
Yeah.
Is that broad-based or?
I'm hoping to double-click more on this at the capital market event that we will have later this year. Indeed, AI-enabled debtor and inventory management will play its part. We see that already coming through. Payables management and supplier coordination, I think, is another source of growth. For us, there is plenty of opportunity to go after.
Got it. When we put it all together, you know, I see most consumer staples companies operate with cash conversion levels around 85%-90%. Is that a realistic aspiration for Heineken?
I think it's a perfect question to start addressing at the CME. Otherwise, I give all the goodies away. I've given you the components, but let's talk numbers.
Fair enough. Just wrapping up maybe on the, on the balance sheet, you're, you're at a pretty comfortable net debt/EBITDA position. You surprised the market with a share buyback announcement at the full year results. Can you just give us a bit of a feel for how capital allocation thinking in the organization has evolved over the last 12 months and how you're thinking about the balance of buybacks versus M&A, which is a big focus.
Yeah.
Over the last 10, 15 years?
No. First of all, this has for Heineken, this has been a bit of a journey, because we were always very, very focused on we want to be a growth company and capital needs to be deployed behind growth, and it's organic growth first. All of that is still true, to your opening question about quality of, of volume and value growth. What we also started to realize is that actually, in order to deliver shareholder returns, we need to look at a very disciplined way of where your capital priorities are. Over the past five, six months, we did a proper diligence to say what is our optimal capital structure and what is the outlook for that capital structure. When we just had a factual conversation linked to your earlier comments about cash flow generation, how do you think about CapEx?
Where are your dividend policy, which we find is very important to be consistent and predictable there? We ended up in a situation where saying cash generation is healthy, organic needs are being fulfilled, $300 million more in ABTL, sorry, in marketing and selling expenses is part of the equation. We now have to have the discipline that if our capital structure is anywhere between 2.1-3.0, and we have excess cash, let's return it to shareholders. I make a deliberate long answer because this was quite a journey in our thinking, but I think we are firmly there. It's now part of the consideration set.
Got it. What you've quantified still gives you some room to be agile in case there is any M&A opportunities out there?
Of course. Inorganic opportunities will always be part of our DNA. We will always look at that. Therefore, we also did the share buyback in a two-year time horizon. I want to convey a message that, look, it's a normal capital allocation procedure now. We crossed that bridge. At the same time, if inorganic opportunities arise, we will not hesitate.
Okay. Very good. I think we leave it there. Harold, thank you for your time.
Thank you very much.
Very much.