UBS consumer team, I wanna welcome you to the 13th Annual UBS Consumer Conference. We are so excited. We've been looking forward to this for a long time. While this is the first year for our event to be in New York after it being in Boston for a long time, it's gonna have the same experience of rich content, engaging people, and wonderful, wonderful interactions. It's truly each and every one of you that make this such a great event. To put perspective around our team and this event, we draw on this conference, our group of research analysts from around the world, who cover $ trillions of market capitalization. The international franchise and global perspective of UBS allows us to sponsor a truly worldwide event that will take place over the next couple of days.
During the event, you'll hear updates from many of the leading consumer companies around the world, ranging from Estée Lauder to AutoZone. We'll get updates on relevant topics across the consumer sector. This conference is gonna feature presentations and meetings with more than almost 70 companies. While it's been quite a few years for the global environment, there's been so many crosscurrents to really try and process. This ranges from inflation to geopolitics, structural changes in behavior, to macro unknowns. All of these topics are gonna be covered in our conversations for the next couple of days. One thing to keep in mind is that none of us really have any answers. We all have individual pieces of a bigger picture that we're trying to put together, and we're gonna do this together.
Our aim is to provide views of consumers around the world, and what is happening, and how the consumer is changing, and how companies can prevail in this environment. We're gonna marry the macro and the micro in these conversations, and uncertainty does bring opportunities, so there truly will be great ideas come out of this event. This is one of the most dynamic sectors of the economy, and it's a critical engine to both emerging and developed markets. From a logistical perspective, we're using technology that allows you to ask questions on the screen. You're gonna find QR codes that you just shoot, and you'll see the agenda. Click on whatever presentation you're in; it will allow you to ask a question. All the moderators have iPads, so feel free to make this interactive as you wish.
From the outset, I want to say that your safety and comfort is of our utmost priority, so if there's anything we can do to enhance your experience, you please let us know. With all that being said, we're gonna be starting off with my friends, Nick and Flower, and the team from HEINEKEN. Great way to kick off our conference. Our lawyer friends at UBS asked us to let you know that as research analysts, we're required to provide certain information to ensure our own relationship with any business, with any company which you on this event over the next couple of days, disclosures of UBS. With that being said, enjoy the experience over the next couple of days. Let us know how we can help, and thank you for being here. With that, HEINEKEN.
I think Joseph is here.
Thank you.
Great! Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us again for the UBS Consumer and Retail Conference. It is a pleasure to be here again with Heineken. It is a pleasure to be here with Harold van den Broek, the CFO, and we're gonna go through some, and you're my panelist. Harold, I think we just start the transformation that Heineken has been undergoing in the last two years. Very significant. So I would like to ask, what are the changes that you are most proud of, and also the two most things that you have now planned for the, for the next phase?
Yeah. Thank you for the question, and great to be here, Nick. And great to see you all here at 8:00 A.M. This beat my expectations, I have to say. So, thanks for taking the time. And coming to your question, it's a funny thing how time flies, and only in February 2021 did we sign a deal for what we thought was the next strategic chapter for this 158-year-old company, which was called EverGreen. And here we are, two years later, and I think throughout that period, we've experienced a lot of turbulence in the world and a lot of changes in our own company. So if you ask me, what has been the most important factors of change throughout this period of time? It really is the embedding of the new strategy.
As Heineken, we said, we are here to shape the future of beer and beyond. This is first and foremost what we set out to do because we also realized the consumer landscape is changing. I was in the U.S. market yesterday, and you do see an enormous amount of choice available for the consumer. And if we're only focused on our Heineken brands or the Heineken products, we probably are not tapping into the full potential of what we see is possible out there. And therefore, this EverGreen strategy starts with, we want to be a growth company, and we want to be consumer-centric. And we have made significant progress during that period of time. So over the past two years, if you look at what has changed in our portfolio, I'll just give you some statistics.
But compared to 2019, in 2022, our total volume in our business are increased. Our beer volume grew 2.7%. Our premium volume grew 15%. Our Heineken volume grew 1.5% over that time period. So you will see that within our portfolio, there are some significant changes that are taking place. Now, add to that two other factors. The first one is that we've become a much more digital company, and this is important because this is also where the customer base are going, is going into. And the growth merchandise value that we've been able to achieve in 2022, was EUR 9.2 billion, is a significant number. And already, you know, we see growth rates in excess of 50% year-over-year, continuing to take shape.
Last but not least, one thing that we wanted to do is to make sure that as we expand the growth profile, that we capture the value from this growth. Because in the previous 15 years, we were always known to be a growth company, but the value captured was not always as obvious, and this is something that we want to address. So also there, over that same time period, 2019 to 2022, on no volume growth, we've been able to deliver EUR 500 million more profit because of the cost programs that we now initiated, and that is taking shape.
So these are the things that we really believe are starting to turn the flywheel of growth, if you like. Now, what are the key things that we need to do, to your, ask your question? This is a longer-term journey.
We're not there yet. We need to make sure that we continue to innovate, continue to premiumize, and get this balance right between volume-led growth, because ultimately, consumer penetration and price mix-led growth, so that we've got a good, healthy balance in revenue. Secondly, what we do is make sure that we continue the productivity drive in profitability, but also, for example, in capital, that progressively you will see us talking about. The combination of this, we believe, is a very attractive proposition to the consumer, but also for shareholders.
Thank you, Harry. Follow up on that growth point. Historically, Heineken growth was very well balanced with price mix. Based on your comments, it sounds like the model might tip a bit more to price mix. Is that what is the best way to think about it?
Yeah, and I think what you are referring to is if you look over a historic period of time, indeed, it was true that there was volume growth and price mix growth. But also, when we did the proper look back, we talked about this in the capital markets last year, we didn't consciously hit both metrics consistently. If you take, for example, the consumer price index inflation, did we really price for inflation to a significant extent? This was not always the case. So the price mix was much more driven by the mix element in the portfolio and the geography that we had, rather than a conscious decision to invest in brand power, and with high brand power, comes the opportunity to premiumize and to price. And this is the shift that we want to make.
So indeed, ideally, I would like to have a healthy balance. Now, in some years, like in 2022, when inflation is high, you will see price mix going up. In some other years, we will really focus on acquiring more focus.
I guess short term, the big headwind has been commodity, and Heineken is talking about potentially the input cost inflation, 19% for this year. But we have seen spot prices begin to roll over. Maybe just talk through the hedging cycle to understand-
Yeah.
when those low prices might begin to benefit the ML.
Yeah. Yeah, thanks, Nick. This is one that you can never get right, because when prices are going up, saying, "Oh, why didn't you hedge me longer?" And when prices are coming down, say, "Ah, what are you doing with your hedging policy?" And the best way to think about this is, look, we're in the business for the longer term, and it's really important that we give clarity to our own organization, external about the consistency of how we think about this. We're not, we're not a commodity trading business. We're a beer brewing business. And therefore, our hedging strategy has remained relatively consistent over this period of time, which basically means that for commodities, we enter into 12-18 months contracts, and that is what we hedge out. And for foreign exchange exposures, we're hedging around 12 months out.
So we have got a pretty good visibility. Obviously, the cost base, this is where the high that you referred to came in about, because basically, the year is done. Now, what we also observe is that indeed, prices are coming off high. This is true for electricity in Europe, this is true for aluminum, for example, but that will only take its progressively into 2024, and I would really also like to say, I'd rather be a little bit cautious than over celebratory at this point in time. Because I don't believe that era of inflation is over yet.
Yeah.
I see the same as you do in oil prices, but I'd rather be surprised on positive than cheer too soon.
Okay, thanks. Given that, I guess that leads to quite large price increases this year. We've had some comments from retailers in countries like France limiting inflation. Any thoughts you can give us on how negotiations went so far? Any markets that have been harder to price this year than, say, in 2022?
Well, let me first say that, you know, price is a necessity. It's not something that we like it per se, right? We like affordability in our consumer base, first and foremost. But we also believe it's responsible to take pricing when there is a high degree of inflation, like we've experienced so far. So of course, the discussion with the retailers are not going to be easy. But to make the question, the answer a little bit shorter to your question, we are pretty pleased with where we are at this moment in time in Europe. Many of the contracts, if almost all, are currently being closed in line with our expectations.
But the only thing that we need to watch out for, I think we said this also in our full year report, is that what we can do is influence the pricing, and, and give clear demand signals of what it takes in order to operate a healthy business. What we cannot predict is the impact on customer volume on these prices. So whilst at the same time, I'm sitting here saying we're pretty happy with the pricing we've taken, I also need to say, look, it's early days. We look at the consumer response or the competitor response to the pricing, and we will just have to see. Okay.
And following up, on that, we have very different consumer behaviors from the different regions and very different elasticities. So what are your assumptions in terms of elasticity for the volumes when we look at Europe? Not so great, but maybe other developing markets or Vietnam doing very well.
Yeah, exactly. Now, I'm happy that you're asking me that question, because indeed, sitting behind your desk in Amsterdam, it's easy to look at all the spreadsheets, but the realities in the market are very different. So we, we also said that in our full year results announcement, we continue to see the world as not stable. We do believe that there will be surprises popping up, and therefore it's better to be cautious and agile, rather than being too rigid and fixed into your, in your plans. And I want to repeat that that is actually how we behave and operate our business here today.
So let me be a bit specific here. So in Europe, what we currently see is that there is a high degree of pricing necessary because of the energy crisis that we had and the pass-through of inflation.
So far, the consumer has been relatively resilient. Now, let's see whether that indeed holds, huh? There is not a huge difference market by market. Some markets are a little bit softer, like the UK. Some markets are a little bit more buoyant, like the southern economies. But by and large, we believe that we're on a good track in the European business. So that actually has beaten our expectations so far, but it's too early to call it for the year. Conversely, Vietnam, as you call out, indeed, was the star performer of our portfolio in 2022, and there we have seen of late a little bit of a political situation that had a knock-on impact, for example, on real estate. For example, in politics, there has been, you know, changes in government that has taken place.
And we have seen a lower level of economic activity in the country than we would have assumed at the quarter four last year. So we do see a softer part in Vietnam. And just to put a dimension to it, because this is always difficult to do, there is this big Tet season that is super important as a celebratory moment of the year. And you will only know when you replenish afterwards, how good the Tet season was, because everybody is stocking up for the big festive season. So it takes about two months to figure out what is great, good, or okay. And I think what we currently can conclude, because of all of these circumstances, is that it has been a good, but not a great Tet season.
And that means that about 800,000 hectoliters were actually shipped in quarter four that are not being replenished to the same extent than we anticipated. So Vietnam is a little bit of a. Yeah, the one we don't worry about long term, but it's not as buoyant as we saw at the ending of this year.
In terms of parts of Vietnam and that slowdown, hopefully that's sorry. Are there other markets that you are worried now in 2023?
So Nigeria is another big market for us. And this has been through a bit of a rollercoaster ride with the presidential elections, and I'm not sure to what extent you follow the news, but there was this abrupt ending of old denomination, which basically put the market on, on no cash available. Now, clearly, if there is no cash available, it's very difficult to do business in, in Nigeria. And only two days ago, due to a high court ruling, this old denomination notes are being put back into circulation until the end of this year. So also there, it's been, you know, up and down, and, and, you know, our business has to navigate through this, complexity. We hope that Nigeria, by the way, is now in a more steady state.
The early indications be there, but, hey, this is Africa, so we'll, we'll have to just hold our time.
We kind of are used to it, right?
We're used to it.
Now we move to the Heineken brand. The growth has been, you know, magnificent, over 28%, and it's much, it's much higher than pre-pandemic. You had the launch of Heineken Silver, which is very successful. Can you tell us more about your thoughts on how you're driving the Heineken brand globally and in Latin America?
Well, yes, indeed. So, first, we're extremely proud of how the Heineken brand is continuing to perform. This is not a flash in the pan. We've seen consistent double-digit growth in more than 50 markets now for a period of time, like 3 years in a row or so. And as I just said at the opening, the Heineken brand, in aggregate, is now a third bigger than what it was in 2019. So this is pretty nice. But this does not come from just the Heineken original that is traveling across the globe, and consumers suddenly discover it. There is innovation behind it as well. And what started in Vietnam with a pairing of youth with a less bitter beer, this was how Heineken Silver originated and became a really big success.
Actually, after a period of time where it was cannibalized on the main Heineken franchise, we saw actually the two growing. China is doing extremely well, and based on that insight, that less bitter taste, lower calorie, and a new target audience, much more tailored to the younger consumer, we decided to roll it out in 2022, 22 markets in Europe. This was the biggest launch in FMCG in Europe. In terms of launch effort and impact, this was really very well done by our European teams. And the early signs, and let's not celebrate, you know, I'm a finance, pretty cautious person, as you will learn to know me.
I don't wanna over celebrate too soon, but the fact that it was a big launch, the biggest in FMCG, the fact that we see a lot of new consumers entering the Heineken brand, so the cannibalization rate on the Heineken brand is relatively low. We're attracting also outside of category into the beer category, which is also a very important part of how to unlock category growth, not just Heineken growth.
These are all important indicators, and that gave us the confidence to also go big here in the U.S. And, I've seen it yesterday in the trade. Early launches, you will not see it everywhere yet, but in the next couple of weeks, this will be ramping up. And, you know, the test results are absolutely phenomenal. The execution and the distributor excitement is very high. So we're both cautious and optimistic-
So if we move to beyond beer, obviously we have the huge boom of seltzers that also have been. I mean, how are you thinking at beyond beer, and which category you think would be more important for Heineken?
So I really need to say that first and foremost, our priority is to make sure that beer is healthy. So not for nothing is our strategy called Shape the Future of Beer, both and beyond. So we really want to make sure that we are not suddenly changing that strategy. And as I just articulated, for example, with lower bitterness, the more accessible, Heineken Silver beverages, there is plenty to innovate still in the beer category space. Now, having said that, we were very. After a long period of patience, we got final approval from the tribunal in South Africa, so that the Distell acquisition can now really hopefully get more in the next 5-6.
That is for us also a fantastic opportunity to think about beyond beer space, because what is a fact is that the consumer profiles are shifting. If you look, for example, at the seltzers that you quote, it was a phenomenon here in the U.S., but it really didn't travel that much to Europe. In fact, our Strongbow Ultra, ultra black cider, lower calories, is doing 80% of the total cider category in the U.K., for instance. So it really means that beyond beer is different consumer offerings for different parts.
Now, coming back to Distell, I think Distell has understood this phenomenally well, because one of the reasons that it's making us very excited, not only for South Africa, because that's the business that we acquired, but it sees potential to travel, is, for example, the 4th Street wines, which is reinventing wine in a much more accessible format, or the slightly flavored drinks like Bernini that Nigeria can't wait to get their hands on. Because consumers' profiles are changing, and we do therefore see quite also in beyond beer, whether it is ciders, flavored drinks or, for example, what Distell has done to scale and amplify that growth. Time will tell. We'll get it right, first, based on consumer insight before we go big, because this is precious to do right, but we do believe that there's a high.
Where do you think you could expand those portfolio areas and in-
So we really do believe that-
Other regions?
So yeah. So we really do believe that there's potential here in the U.S., which, which grow. And I'm not talking about the Distell portfolio, but about the Beyond Beer portfolio. But first and foremost, this will happen in Africa, and we're in there, and that's where it will go.
I come back to the full-year guidance, so the mid- to high-single growth in FPL organically, which the market seems to like being reiterated back in February. But as we look forward, you talked in opening remarks about operational leverage. Just talk about some of the tools that can provide that over the medium term.
Yeah. So first, I think what is important is that we get the balance right between volume growth and price mix led growth, right? It's very difficult to create operating organic growth if you don't really get the leverage at the top line also. So portfolio design, price, mix management, are going to be absolutely critical. And we talked about the fact that revenue and margin growth capability is starting to be embedded in our organization. So this is important. Quality of growth over quantity of growth, that balance needs to be right. The second thing is that we really are on a journey to become much more cost focused and cost conscious as an organization.
Fact of the matter is that the ambition that we set ourselves in 2020, to deliver EUR 2 billion of growth savings by 2023, is firmly on track, and we will certainly hit and likely exceed that number in 2023. But what is important is that it doesn't stop there. Many, including us, have done in the past, big off reset sprints, and then you turn back to normal, and 5, 7, 8, 10 years from now, you have to go through the whole motion again.
This is not what we want to ambition. We want to make sure that we retain this cost-conscious culture and performance management, and really embed it in the business. That's why we also set out that beyond 2023, we see an annual savings rate of about EUR 400 million that really has to come into play.
Now, all of this is still growth, because if we have great investment opportunities, we will continue to invest in the accelerated growth of this business. And that is what we call the virtuous circle. It's quality growth. Growth gives an opportunity for productivity improvement. Productivity improvement gives an opportunity to invest. And that cycle of growth, we really are
Do you think the best way to think medium term is a sort of EBIT growth algorithm in euro terms, or longer term, could you go back to a margin focus, the-
Yeah.
Mid organization to focus on cost?
So I'm speaking personally now, I'd love both, because I ultimately believe that a quality business that has a long tenure of success is able to create absolute profit mass. But at the same time, because of top line growth and cost discipline, there is a degree of leverage that needs to come through. So if you ask me, "What is your ideal scenario?" My ideal scenario, we consciously stepped away from the 17% margin, and I'm very happy that we did, because it was just not feasible in the current circumstances. But over time, I think operating profit organic growth is the lead metric, but I would expect to see operating leverage come back into the equation over time.
Okay, perfect. A few questions on the markets. On Brazil, that's been a big source of CapEx investment, in recent years and going forward. Can you walk through your CapEx plans for the next 12-24 months? Are we now at a point where the business is no longer CapEx or growth constrained?
Well, I'm happy to inform you that the growth is still CapEx well spread. So it is the case that we continue to see a fairly high sense of demand for the Heineken brand, and we're very happy with that, right? The fact that our brand power is greater than our ability to serve the market means that there is consumer pull. And this, in turn, has led to brand Heineken being the most desired brand in Brazil, and brand Heineken also being the brand that has taken time and again, the necessary pricing in order to create the portfolio that we want. So we're extremely happy with the brand Heineken. We're also investing significantly in fueling that brand Heineken, also from a marketing and sales expense point of view.
But the second part of the business that is starting to take shape is the upper mainstream segment. So our portfolio is starting to create scale-
Mm.
and is accelerating quite significantly, where we've seen growth very much in the double digits, the 40%, 50%, and that is now starting to become a business that is also meaningful. So the total portfolio in upper mainstream to really premium is in very healthy shape. The capital investment we have planned out for the next five years, three years, 2025. So we have announced the building of a new, a new greenfield site that is becoming operational in 2025. 5 million hectoliter, but easy to go to 10 million hectoliter before. And in the medium term, in tranches of about 1.5 million hectoliter, we're expanding the existing breweries, so that over that period of time, we then operate with 50 breweries across Brazil.
So we do believe that we're holding the right balance between the demand for our products out there, but also making sure that in time, capacity becomes available in the market, both for Heineken as well as for AmBev.
Great, thank you. At the CMD, you talked about the big progress in Brazil on margin per unit.
Yeah.
Could you talk a bit about the aspiration for margin at the EBIT level over the medium term? I know back in the past, we talked about converging with group average.
Yeah.
A lot of things happened along the way, but-
Yeah. Well, a lot of things happened on the way, but I'm also not dissatisfied with the progress that I see. Because indeed, the portfolio has completely shifted from 70% economy to now, at the end of the year, about 80% mainstream, upper mainstream, and premium. So the shape of the portfolio and the margin that that generates, I think, is now really very good. The team in Brazil have done an outstanding job at pace to create that portfolio that is ready to sustain it. At the same time, we're still investing because we see there is more demand for our products. So to answer your question, we have made firm steps into getting to profitability.
We are now profitable in Brazil and have actually grown profit and profitability in Brazil over that time period, despite high foreign exchange and high inflation. I use this anecdote also, that we are importing more than 1 billion bottles. These are significantly more expensive than local. All of that is in the pipeline in the making. I do believe that by 2025, we'll see a much closer and a much better profitability profile in Brazil. I'm not going to give you numbers out of competitive reasons, but we will be there. And a little bit later, we still believe that coming to the Heineken average is very much possible.
Okay, perfect. Now moving on to Mexico. Also, at the CMD, you talked about progress of the retail chain, OXXO, which I think is now at 16,000 stores. Can you talk a bit about, you know, what advantages that gives you, what that means for margins over the medium term?
Yeah. So we're very happy with the transition out of OXXO because, you know, that was part of the agreement. Just as a reminder for the audience, it will take one more full year before all
So we do unfortunately still suffer from the mixing impact in terms of our market share, mostly explained by this in OXXO that is going on. But at the same time, we built that indeed, 16,000 store in six. And the dynamics are very good because we can influence the portfolio to our own liking, so all in Mexico, as you know, the premiumization is still relatively modest, so there is still a lot of leeway to go. The scaling of innovation, like for example, Amparo, our Heineken Silver, is happening also through our six store, and the levels of profitability are significantly better than the agreement that we had with OXXO. So you actually see that whilst growth is relatively constrained because of the OXXO mixing in Mexico, our levels of profitability have actually increased quite significantly.
Perfect. And then one more market before I come back to Pilar. You touched on Vietnam earlier, you know, some short-term pressures, but positive, medium term. Thinking at the margin level, you know, that that used to be one of the highest margin markets in the Heineken group. I guess that dipped slightly during the COVID period. But as you look forward, is the main focus just growing the top line, especially with the two tier three cities, getting margins back to that previous, which I think about 40%? Is, is that focused it?
Yeah. No, I'm very. Usually, I'm pretty much focused on operating profit growth, margin, costs, and right of portfolio, the conversation we had in this fireside chat, today. But you also have to be realistic. If you are occupying 95% of the premium market in Vietnam, like what we do, and there is still so much potential because, you know, per capita consumption is still relatively low, but people just have affordability issues at the premium. We would be foolish not to use the muscle of Vietnam and expand the portfolio to mainstream and to the north of the markets where we're not traditionally the stronger. So I do fully expect Vietnam to be running a very tight ship on portfolio and cost in order to maximize value creation.
But at the same time, I'm going to give them a lot of leeway to continue to grow, because this is, this is the heartland of what we want to do. And also, their profitability is still relatively high compared to the company average. So you would be, I think, stealing from your own wallet if you would not capture the opportunity and leave that open to competition. We would not want to do that.
Just one final one on Vietnam, just the competitive dynamic. I guess we've seen both machine growth, north, south, and SABECO doing that. Has that market got more competitive, do you think, over the past five years?
Yeah. Well, I don't know, because I wasn't there five years ago, but I do believe that it is a competitive market. And I don't think. I was in Vietnam three months ago. It's always dangerous to be complacent, and I was very happy to find all our operations. They are really, really working very hard to make their business better every time. So do we have strong competition there with SABECO and Carlsberg? Yes, we do. Are we ready for that fight? Absolutely, we are. And that's why I also believe that we should give the investment, for example, in digital, but also in a richer brand portfolio with Bia Viet, Lar ue, now tailored to the local needs of the consumer in different, because Vietnam is a big market also. It's a big country.
We just need to be ready to continue to invest to capture the maximum of the opportunities that we see. Thank you.
All right, now we move to ESG. You have very ambitious targets. You wanna reach net zero on your own production by 2030, and your suppliers by next year. What are the major challenges that you are finding along the way?
So, so first, we set out the Brew a Better World vision. Also this, in 2021, where we committed to sustainability targets, to fair targets, to good governance targets. I think that the whole carbon neutrality that we are currently, together with water, are probably the two very difficult things to do. But nothing is impossible. And I do believe that we've made significant progress. So versus 2018, which is the reference here, we have already reduced the carbon footprint in our own production by 18%. Now, you would say, "Hey, eighteen, and then by 2030, we need to get to a 100%." But that also means that there are learning curves in there. Now, we've started to really work through our planning processes.
For about 80%-90%, we know what it takes, and we have to work successively over the next couple of years on how to achieve carbon neutrality in our brewing footprint. Now, this comes with building the biggest solar panels, like we did in South Africa, to heat pumps that we're now installing. All of these things have a role to play. We've allocated the capital, we know what it takes. We're working with partners, which perhaps I should not name, because I will exclude others, that we're also working here as well. But we've got a very clear roadmap of how to carbon neutrality by 2030.
Although this is hard work, because, you know, we have a lot of moving of the world, we know what it takes, we know what it costs, and we know what to do. This is now in progress.
Today, in recent, I mean, you took EUR 1 billion on the placing, which it was a bit more than some people thought. There could be, you don't go shares, there could be another placing. Do you think you could maybe get another EUR 1 billion, and maybe go up beyond your 2.5x EBITDA?
So, we really saw this as a unique opportunity, and therefore, I would not read suddenly too much into the transaction that we did just now. And the reason why this was a unique opportunity, and now over a, you know, over a period, or a relatively limited period of time, that they would actually completely combination. We really wanted to make sure that we gave the signal that we have confidence in our own strategy, and remove significant part of the overhang that that statement created, whilst respecting fully of all, respecting the center now on. So in that crucial moment, we felt it was important to give that signal. Our capital allocation principles remain completely unchanged, which is, first and foremost, we want to invest in the organic business of Heineken.
Secondly, we indeed will get to the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5. Third, we like predictable business. We like M&A opportunities and all of the above, if they have been fulfilled, then we can decide what to do with any remaining cash or financial flexibility that we have. Now, all of these metrics were being met at that projection a month ago. We don't know how that will pan out in the future. So we'll take one opportunity at a time and make that complete with your energy.
Thank you. Then in terms of digitalization, you've been investing a lot in a new way to reach the consumer. How are you thinking about it going forward, and which areas you're gonna focus the most?
So the digitalization for us falls into two separate buckets. The first one is, we see digitizing the go-to-market as a key thing that is currently happening across the world. And this is particularly true of the app that we are tapping now, more and more, also with Nigeria, also in Vietnam. And why? Because small number of stores, whether you are direct delivery or indirect delivery, the world is moving to digital, order taking, recommendation management. And there is a lot of efficiency that this can have if you start to digitize your whole, go-to-market, model. So that part, I think, is super important and will continue to evolve. And we're very happy with the progress that we're making, both in terms of net promoter scores, as well as absolute size of business.
go through the digital ecosystem, we believe that we've got the offerings that make, create loyal customer bases. And this is extremely important, and we'll continue to invest behind this because the race is on, and we really do not want to be left behind, and we don't think we are. So that's, let's call it, the front end part of the business. That's where the value mostly sits, because we don't want to lose customers because we don't have the offerings that they need. On the back end, we still have a long way to go because Heineken, because of its operating-centric model, every operating company was, you know, in full discretion, running their own office. We have a legacy system landscape that we need to tackle, and also that is in full swing.
So the two combined, of course, is our digital transformation, because we only don't want to do optimization in the front end without actually having seamless transactions at the back end as well. Now, this is a 5-8-year journey. We'll diligently work our way through it, and as long as we are servicing our customers and consumers the way that they want, and are diligently getting value from eradicating, let's call it, manual work or, you know, opportunities that we see to simplify our system landscape in the back end, I think this is working. But we'll take our time.
Then, if we move to capital efficiency. Capital efficiency, productivity gains are all key parts of the EverGreen strategy, but also the working capital. What are you doing to try to get the working capital to a level that is maybe closer to other peers?
Yeah. So indeed, I think, the reality is that, when we did the competitive analysis, there is an opportunity out there to drive return on that asset, return on capital, faster and bigger. I've always been clear also to audiences like this, that we cannot do all the transformations at once. If you currently see the level of change that is happening in Heineken, I don't want to disrupt even more than what we currently do. And ultimately, first and foremost, we want to make sure that we're a growth company, and that's where a lot of the organizational energy needs to go, because that ultimately creates our future. Now, having said that, because your question is very specific, what you're going to do, the first indication, therefore, is we're going to take time.
At this moment in time, there are a group of selective teams who are looking at inventory management, are looking at the payable structure, are looking at data collection, are looking at investments that we potentially could not make ourselves, but are doing this as a service. All of these elements are coming into the equation in order to address how we can work in a more efficient capital base. The reason why I say, look, all of these groups are working, is that I really want to make sure that this is structural and right for the business. We do believe that there are opportunities, and we'll go after them, and you will see this progress as we come in.
It also means that, for example, our capital efficiency, the amount of CapEx that we put in the business, also there we will scrutinize and see. For example, what we're doing in Europe with platforming, making sure that we have the ability to service multiple markets from a multiple set of breweries, this basically can increase throughput to our breweries and at the same time reduce the need for inventories. These are more systematic examples that we believe are improving our capital base, and that's what we'll also be focusing on.
Great. Thank you, Harold. Thank you so much, Harold and Federico, for joining again the UBS Consumer Conference, Nick and I and UBS. Really, thank you for being with us another year.
Thank you for the opportunity, and great to see you. Thank you.
Thank you.