Heineken Holding N.V. (AMS:HEIO)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 19, 2023

Operator

Hello, thank you for calling the live webcast. My name is Alex, I'll be coordinating the call today. If you'd like to ask a question at the end of the presentation, you can press Star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press Star 2. I'll now hand over to your host, Federico Castillo Martinez, Head of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.

Jose Federico Castillo Martinez
Director of Investor Relations, The HEINEKEN Company

Thank you, Alex, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for today's exceptional live webcast. Your host will be Harald van den Broek, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

The presentation includes forward-looking statements and expectations based on management's current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. It is possible that actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I'll now turn the call over to Harold.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. Thank you, Federico. Good morning, afternoon, evening, everyone. Whilst it is lovely to virtually connect to you all so soon after our year-end results, you are no doubt wondering why we have decided to hold, as Federico calls it, an exceptional and out of cycle call. May be good to explain that before we get used to this.

You all know that we work to build the business for the long term and do not want to manage 1/4 by 1/4. That would lead to short-termism that we don't believe in. I wanted to take you through some of the key performance highs and lows on the 1/4, because we've seen increasing volatility in some of the markets, driving positive and negative deviations from our expectations and some of the conversations that we had.

Second, we are on track to close the Distell transaction next week. I also wanted to take you through the expected impact of the consolidation. If you allow me, I'd like to start with a brief summary of the 1/4. At the start of the year, we reflected in our outlook on the context of our business environment. We said we anticipated a challenging global economic environment and inflationary pressures on consumer disposable income.

Against this backdrop, we start the year with strong revenue growth, driven by pricing and disciplined revenue management, while we materially increase investment behind our brands. Business performance in Europe and Americas is encouraging, albeit early to call, as the full extent of inflation needs to work its way into consumer spend and behavior.

Results in Asia and Pacific, Africa and Middle East and Eastern Europe regions were disappointing, hindered by temporary volatility in Vietnam and Nigeria that I will come back to later. Brand Heineken continued to perform strongly, with volume up 5.7% excluding Russia.

Heineken Silver grew 47% and was launched in the US, gaining distribution at pace. We continue to make consistent progress on EverGreen, investing towards building greater brands, our digital route to consumer, our strategic capabilities, and behind our Brew a Better World ambitions. Let us now look at the highlights of the number.

Group revenue was close to EUR 6.4 billion, an increase of 8.9% organically, with price mix on a constant geographic basis, increasing by 12.1%, driven by pricing to offset inflation across all regions, complemented by revenue and mix management initiatives, more than offsetting a beer volume decline of 3% organically. Some highlights for key markets, starting with Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe.

Net revenue BEIA grew 3.6% organically, with total consolidated volume declining 8.6%, and price mix on a constant geographic basis up 14.4%. Beer volume decreased organically by 8.3%, with a significant decline in Nigeria and South Africa, only partially offset by a strong performance in Ethiopia. The situation in Nigeria is quite extraordinary.

This is our largest market in the region. Total volume decline in the mid-20s was in line with the market. The economy suffered from a temporary lack of availability of local currency caused by an immediate withdrawal of all banknote denominations, impacting consumers' ability to purchase goods. Now, we expect the situation to progressively improve as the validity of the old banknotes have been restored until the end of 2023, alongside issuing redesigned banknotes.

Despite these challenges, the premium portfolio in Nigeria grew by a mid-single-digit, with Desperados more than doubling volume versus the same period last year. As we move on to the Americas, we continue to see good performance in our strongest markets. Net revenue BEIA grew 14.8% organically, with total consolidated volume up 3.1%.

Price mix on a constant geographic basis was also up 13.6%, led by pricing in Brazil and Mexico and continued premiumization of the portfolio. Beer volume increased organically by 3.4% in the 1/4, and our premium portfolio grew by a high single-digit, led by Heineken in Brazil and the U.S. Amstel accelerating in Brazil and Amstel Ultra in Mexico. Now on to Asia Pacific, where, as we said, we had a soft start to the year.

Net revenue BEIA declined 5%, 5.4% organically. Total consolidated volume declined by 10.5% impacted by the declines in Vietnam and Cambodia. Price mix on a constant geographic basis increased 4.7%. Whilst the premium volume portfolio declined in the low 20s driven by Vietnam, other markets contributed to an underlying mid-teens growth.

Let me address the situation in Vietnam. Net revenue BEIA declined in the low 20s, driven by lower volume due to the earlier Tet season and temporary economic pressures impacting the market. What happens is that given the steep post-COVID recovery last year, we have been building stock ahead of the Tet season, expecting this momentum to continue.

The momentum was halted early 2023 due to an economic slowdown, attributed in part to real estate and export centers. Market share, however, remains strong and encouragingly, Heineken Silver and Tiger Crystal grew in the high teens and by more than 30% respectively. Finally, some words on Europe. Net revenue BEIA grew 13.5% organically, with total consolidated volume down 1.3% performing ahead of our expectations as consumers remain resilient so far, despite continued pressure from inflation across consumer goods.

Price mix on a constant geographic basis was up 13.6%, driven by pricing earlier than the industry, more than offsetting a beer volume decline of 2.3% organically. Our premium portfolio was broadly flat, with continued momentum on our next generation brands such as Birra Moretti, Beavertown, Messina, El Águila, Texels and Gallia.

Let us now move on to discuss the Heineken brand performance in more detail. Overall premium beer volume declined, driven by the situation in Vietnam and the stopping of sales of Heineken in Russia. Strong underlying momentum in premiumization continued elsewhere, led by Heineken, which grew 2.3% in volume, significantly outperforming our portfolio. Excluding Russia, as I indicated before, Heineken grew 5.7% organically.

The growth continued to be very broad-based with more than 25% markets growing double digits, in particular, Brazil and China delivered strongly. Heineken 0.0 grew by 6.9% organically excluding Russia, with strong momentum in Brazil, U.S., U.K., Spain and the Netherlands. Notably, Heineken Silver continued its strong growth up 47%, including double-digit growth in Vietnam and China and its continued global expansion.

We're very pleased to have launched Heineken Silver in the USA and are encouraged by the speed and scale of nationwide distribution builds and the placements that we've achieved. As we commented before, we're gearing up for a big launch activation, which started in April, therefore it's a bit too early to comment on that and more to come in our first 1/2 update. I would like now to move to welcoming Distell to our portfolio.

After many months of effort and great collaboration, on March 9th, the South African Competition Tribunal approved Heineken's offer to acquire control of the Distell Group Holdings Limited, paving the way for the creation of a new Southern African beverage champion. The transaction with Distell and Namibia Breweries Limited is expected to be completed next week on April 26th.

We're very much looking forward to combining these 3 incredible, proud and independently successful companies and are welcoming over 5,000 Distell and NBL colleagues into Heineken. Let us move on to the next slide as a reminder of the compelling strategic rationale that sits behind this exciting combination. First and foremost, we see growth potential. Our ambition is to shape the future of beer and beyond by expanding our advantage footprint, scaling premiumization, pioneering low and no propositions, and exploring beyond beer.

With Distell, we can build on several of these areas. First, the transaction will significantly strengthen our number 2 position in South Africa with a unique multi-category portfolio of beer, ciders, wines and spirits, and 2 highly complementary route to consumer organizations. Secondly, it will allow us to consolidate our position in Namibia and benefit from greater access to local expertise while creating an opportunity to leverage our premium category building capabilities in this exciting market.

Third, the transaction brings into Heineken a diverse portfolio and innovation capabilities. We will explore opportunities to grow Savanna Cider, Windhoek Beer, but also the grape-based Bernini Sparkling Spritzer outside their home markets. The new operating company will be serving 10 export markets, where the combination will enable increased efficiency and potential growth, especially in attractive markets like Kenya and Tanzania.

We are impressed by the innovation capabilities of Distell and look forward to nurturing them and expanding them. Behind that, of course, there are also obvious synergies to be achieved from the creation of a new operating company, amounting to around 1.5 billion ZAR or EUR 75 million to the EBITDA of the combined group.

Moving on to share the main points for consideration on the consolidation. This is important to get right. We expect to consolidate Distell and NBL as of the 1st of May 2023. On March 27th, the threshold scheme conditions of the transaction have been fulfilled, which is a formal way of saying that we can now confirm that shareholding in NewCore is 65%. As a result, the consolidation of the newly acquired assets will imply the following.

On gross revenue, we will add EUR 1.6 billion or close to 5%. If we take into account the accounting treatment of excise duties that we apply at Heineken, this will convert to EUR 1.1 billion of incremental net revenue or close to 4%. Approximately EUR 160 million of operating profit will be added and a low single-digit net profit and diluted EPS contribution will come into play. Please note that these figures are backward-looking and illustrative only.

They are intended to give a directional impact of the consolidation using the information provided in the prospectus. They are not intended as guidance because, as said, we will expect consolidation to happen on May 1, 2023. With that, let me move on to the last slide. I would like to reiterate that our full-year expectations remain unchanged.

We continue to experience the effects of a global volatile economy and remain cautious about the impact that this has on consumer demand. At the same time, we are focused on strengthening our business in line with our EverGreen strategy, including investment behind our brands and innovations and delivering upon our growth savings ambitions.

Following the start of the year, we see signals of a more resilient Europe, and we also see risks of a slower economic growth in Asia Pacific. Therefore, performance across markets may be different than what we previously anticipated. All in all, our full-year outlook remains unchanged. We expect operating profit BEIA to grow organically mid to high single digit. We also expect that the growth in the operating profit BEIA will come mainly, if not fully, in the second 1/2 of the year.

A last point, we have submitted an application for approval regarding the transfer of ownership of our Russian business. I am limited in what I can say because that process is completed and is now with the authorities of the Russian Federation. With that in mind, I would like to open for Q&A on everything but Russia. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you can press Star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, you may press Star followed by 2. Please ensure you limit yourselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up question only. Thank you. Our first question for today comes from Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Mitch Collett
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi, Harold. I've got 1 question, please. In the release, you say that you have materially increased investment behind your brands. Can you perhaps comment on the quantum focus and the timing of that investment, please? Thank you.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. Thanks, Mitch. It's fully understood why you're asking that question. The reason I'm a little bit hesitant to give levels of quantification is that this is quite an unusual situation. We usually don't comment on the full flow of the P&L to net profit. This trading update is really meant as a trading update. On the other hand, what point is a Q&A session if I don't give you a little bit more context? You know, in a way I'm going to do that.

The reason that it is material is that this was on the basis of our volume performance, significantly higher than that. You should think about in line with revenue growth, not in line with volume growth. Let me not be more precise than that.

Mitch Collett
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you. Can you comment on the timing of that investment and perhaps where you focused it, presumably Heineken Silver has gained-

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. I think as you would expect, it's not yet Heineken Silver that much, I have to say. That's important to note. Most of that is still to come. It really is about the growth restoration that we saw on the back 1/2 of this year behind premium, behind our growth markets. It was also expected to take place in the first 1/2 of the year.

We want to make sure that we build consistency over time. Both in Europe as well as the Americas, the likely candidates like Mexico, Brazil, but also Vietnam, because clearly we assessed the situation wrongly there, were the key markets where also incremental brand support was taking place.

Mitch Collett
Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Got it. Thanks very much.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Thanks, Mitch.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Edward Mundy of Jefferies. Edward, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Edward Mundy
Managing Director, Beverages Research, Jefferies

Afternoon, Harold. Afternoon, Federico. I've got 1 question, 1 follow-up. Despite Pretty challenging start, you're reiterating your guidance for the year. Could you talk about what's behind this confidence and so far as it relates to EverGreen and what are the levers the business is gonna be leaning on to hit that guidance of mid-to-high single-digit organic EBIT?

On Vietnam, you know, quite a tough start to the year from a sell-in perspective, you know, given the reasons that you highlighted, but from a sell-out basis, your brand portfolio performed broadly in line with the market.

Can you share how you think the market performed in the first 1/4 to get a better understanding of the underlying sell-out trends and has the inventory unwind completed as at the end of the 1/4?

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. Thanks, Edward. Very relevant and good questions. Let me start at the beginning, why we are reiterating the guidance. We are actually quite confident in the EverGreen strategy that we've put together. What we have learned in the past couple of years also is to be focused on the controllables and be agile depending on conditions, yeah?

We've learned that through COVID, the reopening, the fast recovery in APAC that we saw in the second 1/2 of the year, the acceleration of momentum in Brazil, the adaptation in Mexico with the OXXO mixing. I think as a business, we're starting to learn not to work on fixed plans, but to be agile enough to redeploy and refocus depending on the market realities that we see.

1 of those market realities is indeed a slightly softer start in certain markets like Nigeria and Vietnam as the obvious call-outs. Therefore, we're really adjusting the portfolio, but we're also adjusting the model on where we see opportunities of success. I hope to share more of that in the 1/2 year update rather than go into that now.

What is important is that we found a way in our organization to start testing what is working and shifting resources accordingly while still being extremely focused on what we can control. What we also indicated, and I've been quite specific about this in the full year results, but also at the conference last week, is that year 1 in 2022, we were very dogmatic about pricing for inflation and euro for euro.

Already this year, we started to say we hope to recover most of the inflation. We take market conditions into account because we knew that we were not operating on a steady state that is the same across markets. We have to make sure that we stay relevant locally. Therefore, what you may want to see is that there is a little bit more brand investment behind premium brands or, you know, brands that are on fire. We may even adjust some of the pricing mechanics if the consumer is not following us or come with special packs, for example.

There is a little bit more of a degree of freedom that we give to the operating companies in order to make sure that we keep this balanced volume value equation that we've been talking about and not be single-minded following orders.

We do like the local entrepreneurialism. Having said all of that, it also means that with this challenging start, we really need to double down on our growth savings program in order to continue funding the journey of EverGreen. That's exactly what we do. We said before that we have good visibility. We therefore have also good visibility of where we accelerate and where we invest. That's why we're reiterating the guidance for this year.

It will also, by the way, Edward, not have escaped you the notice that some of this may lead to some timing phasing. Therefore, we said previously, you know, balance between 1/2 1, 1/2 2 operating profit delivery. It is now more likely. That's not a coincidence that sentence has crept in. It's likely to be more second 1/2 focused than indicated before.

On to your next question, Vietnam. I think it's an excellent question. The Q1, according to NielsenIQ, because this is an objective source that we also use, the beer market grew in Vietnam, according to NielsenIQ, by about 6%.

That 6% needs to be put in the context of last year, where COVID was still a factor and Vietnam was impacted and only then starting to open up. It's 6% in the context of a weak comparator. We indeed perform broadly in line with the market on a sell-out basis. According to NielsenIQ, this is also important. We clearly misread the signals in terms of the steep bounce back in Q4, anticipating that to be a record high debt and consumer demand to stay strong.

I've been quite explicit that therefore we overstocked in a way, at the end of last year. What I also get from NielsenIQ is that the whole industry, apparently, but I don't want to speak on be1/2 of others, but apparently, the whole industry read these consumer signals the way that we did, and therefore, there is a bit of an industry overhang in terms of stock into the, into the channels that we have to work through.

Concluding with how you asked the question, we are indeed, the market is growing 6% year-on-year because of COVID comparator, and we perform broadly in line on a sell-out basis. Hopefully, that gives you the wider context.

Edward Mundy
Managing Director, Beverages Research, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Thanks, Edward.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Richard Withagen from Kepler. Richard, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Richard Withagen
Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Good afternoon, Harold. Good afternoon, Federico. Two questions from me as well, please. First of all, on Distell NBL deal, maybe Harold, you can give some or some explanation, yeah, on the planned steps in integrating the businesses in South Africa. You know, what will Heineken focus on first, and by when should the integration be completed?

The second question on pricing in the various markets in 2023. What are your thoughts on additional pricing rounds later in the year given, you know, you know the cost pressure, you know, or at least have an indication of price elasticities in the first few months of the year. What are your thoughts on additional rounds of pricing?

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yep. Thanks, Richard. I now need to be a little bit careful on the Distell NBL integration priorities, because believe me, we have a lot of excitement to go there and to ask the team all kinds of questions. The first, second, and third priority is Richard, is to be careful on learning that business first.

Be absolutely focused on winning the season by getting the right people in the right place with the right governance structure. That is our first priority. We don't really want to come in. It is also a great get-together of really successful companies.

I really don't want us, as Heineken, to come in and basically saying, "Look, let me show the Heineken way." There is much to learn in Distell, NBL has been a successful company for a very long period of time. The way that we're thinking about integration priorities, first and foremost, we need to work on the people construct and appoint the right people in this organization.

Secondly, we need to be very, very clear about what winning the season means and how we're going to deploy our joint execution resources in order to really win, because nothing feeds the reunited culture as basically becoming part of a winning team. We also know, because of how long this process has taken, that some of our competitors in the market has ample time to prepare.

We really need to be good on the ground and very clear on our priorities. What we also are discussing already is obviously, I said that before as well, it's first and foremost growth. The commerce part of the organization is going to have a pretty deep look at portfolio strategy, but also looking at innovation capabilities from Distell for the Heineken markets that are interested in there.

What we also want to be clear about is that this in a way is also very attractive from a synergy point of view, and we will be discussing very shortly with management, the progress on the synergy path as well. That will all happen in the next couple of months.

The first priority is to welcome the 5,000 people and be cheering on winning in the marketplace with the right people appointed to the right roles. That's priority number 1. Hopefully, Richard, that was question number 1, at least sufficiently answered, but it also gives you a sense that we want to be precious about this deal and not urgent, for synergies only. The second 1 is pricing for markets 2023 later in the year. This is exceptionally difficult to navigate, Richard, because it really is a market by market reality that we're currently facing.

As I just said to Edward, we really want to make sure that we get the balance between price mix and volume growth right on a market by market basis, because our expectation in the year already is that our volume growth will be relatively minimum given the fact that we have so much pricing and inflationary pressure on the entire consumer base.

We really don't want to go into a too blunt assumption that pricing can carry on forever, and therefore it really is market by market. Having said that as a general statement, we are very happy with the pricing that we've been able to land in the first 1/4, and that is not yet fully reflected because this takes time to roll in as well, in our organization.

That means that we feel comfortable about the level of pricing that we've gotten, and we'll take a step-by-step approach to further pricing later in the year, depending on the realities on how volume and consumers are responding to this and the realities that we see in a competitive environment and with the evolution of commodity cost. Although most of that has been hedged already, as you know.

Richard Withagen
Equity Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Very clear. Thanks, Harold.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Thank you, Richard.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Olivier Nicolai from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Olivier Nicolai
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking question. Just 2 very quick 1. Just on the U.S., first of all, Heineken is back to growth in volumes terms. Could you give us an indication of what the core Heineken brand is doing? Also, do you have any feedback from distributors on the Silver launch? The second question is, just on Europe, it was much stronger than expected.

It seems to be driven a lot by the on-trade channel. Do you see any sign of weakness in the on-trade in March or April? Are you still confident about the consumer resilience in Europe this year? Thank you.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Thank you. Well, as you've indicated and rightly said, we continue to be very proud of the Heineken brand. Although we like growth to be higher, I think it's a testimony of its momentum that we're still growing mid-single digit and double digit growth in 25 markets. The key markets that you would expect, the Vietnam, the China, the Brazils, are continuing to play a very important part in that. The Heineken Silver launch in the U.S. is really at its early stages.

To your question, what we said yesterday is that the feeling is good. We are getting distribution at pace. The distributors are behind the launch and are actually quite excited about what this proposition could bring.

The, the TV commercial has got all kinds of green ratings in all of our testing, as well as the consumer taste profiles is clearly preferred above everything else that is in that market. From an input KPI, you know, everything ticks on green, including distribution, distributor engagement, follow-up on commercials, the budgets that have been made available. There's a lot of energy that goes behind this.

As we know, selling it in is something else than selling it out, and the consumer needs to embrace this product as well. That's why we say we're tracking this, you know, like there's no tomorrow, but it would be appropriate to wait until the 1/2 1 results to get a bit more of a, let's call it qualitative update from me, otherwise I would have been in marketing and not in finance.

On the question of Europe and the balance between on-trade and off-trade. We know that Q1 is, you know, a Q1 in Europe. It's winter season. Not a lot is happening there. What we do see is actually we're pretty pleased with the balance on both. It's still the case that on-trade is lower as compared to 2019, but has been delivering a pretty good performance in the 1/4.

It depends, of course, on what your comparable period is. We talked previously about on-trade not yet recovering to 2019. Compared to last year, we're also relatively happy with where on-trade is at this moment in time. Hey, let's get a brilliant Q2 with a lot of sunshine out of the way.

I think it'd be more meaningful to talk about this.

Olivier Nicolai
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Simon Hales of Citi. Simon, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Consumer Staples and Beverages Research, Citi

Thank you. Hi, Harold. A couple from me as well, please. Could I just come back to Vietnam? I just want to be clear on the situation there. A couple of things. The 6% depletion trend from NielsenIQ that you talked to, was that a volume or a value depletion trend you are flagging there? I may have missed it in your response to Ed's question, but, you know, are you saying that the destocking of the Q4 inventory load is complete at the end of the 1/4, or do you expect it to continue into Q2? That's the first question.

Then secondly, I wonder if you could just talk a little bit more about Nigeria. Clearly you expect things to, you know, sort of improve as we go forward.

I'm just trying to get a handle on, you know, perhaps what the exit run rate was for consumer depletions at the end of March. How we should think about modeling the return to perhaps previous volume trends on a go-forward basis.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. Thanks, Simon. I think these are again, good questions and the reason for the call. Let me first do the easy 1 first. The number that I was talking about depletion in Nielsen, was indeed 6% in terms of volume.

That's the answer to that question. The second part is the destocking at the end of 1/4 1. I wish my life was as simple as that I could really read into the, into the full fragmented trade of Vietnam what is going on. You remember last time that we talked about industry data, beer production, and how much of a double count there was in that.

That just gives you a signal that we're trying really hard, and we've got pretty decent data on our own organization, but it is not a full see-through in, in the market in its own right. It's difficult to read the stock in trade, with perfection.

I do believe that we're working through that overstock, but as I try to indicate as well, and again, according to NielsenIQ, I don't want to talk on be1/2 of competition, but there is a bit of a bubble of stock that everybody had to eat through, and therefore it's a bit difficult to see when that will be depleted and whether that was complete at the end of 1/4 1. Let me just stop there because I also don't want to give signals on 1/4 2 that I'm not supposed to. Yeah.

I think what is also important, based on the conversations that we have with Vietnam, we still have a lot of confidence in our operations in Vietnam, in the potential in Vietnam. There is also a little bit of a global reality currently in Vietnam, where global trade is softening and Vietnam is suffering from that a little bit. According to government, this should rebound in 1/2 2, and we'll be ready for that.

On Nigeria. What we're focusing on in Nigeria, because we are the market leader, it's difficult to say whether this is a temporary occasion with currency or not currency. There just has been presidential elections, and therefore, also here, we're very focused on control the controllables. The metrics that we want to be successful at is how do we retain market share?

This market is super strategic for the long term. Whether we build the right portfolio, and what you see also in our announcement is that this path to premiumization is still happening, and we are actually converting a lot of consumers to the part of the premium portfolio. Desperados is being a good example, but not the only 1.

That we really try to bring the right P&L structure in order to sustain investments and become part of a profitable business as a whole. At the time where Nigeria was no longer profitable for the industry, we really don't want to return to. We also want to be responsible in portfolio and pricing management so that this stays a healthy industry at large. That's what we're focusing on Nigeria.

As we all know, Africa is a market that has its sprints to success and then pauses with declines in order to sprint to success again, and we're used to that over a long period of time. We believe in Nigeria for the future.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Consumer Staples and Beverages Research, Citi

That's really helpful. I would just to bring it all together, obviously, you know, obviously the softer volume start to the year and what you're saying about the uncertainty and being able to read through on Vietnam, you know, what's happening in Nigeria, the pricing going in. I mean, overall, in terms of your full year guidance, am I right in just confirming that at this stage, you're not walking away from the previous guidance you gave on volumes, which was that they could still be flat to slightly up for this year?

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

That's correct, Simon.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Consumer Staples and Beverages Research, Citi

Got it. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sanjeet Aujla from Credit Suisse. Sanjit, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Sanjeet Aujla
Managing Director, European Beverages Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Hey, Harold. Thanks for the call. Just a couple of quick follow-ups from me, please. Firstly, you spoke about incremental pricing in Q1 to hit the shelves in Q2. Is that Q1 incremental pricing just in Europe, or which other markets have you implemented price increases through the 1/4? Can you just comment a little bit on how you see the competitive landscape vis-à-vis pricing? Are you seeing competitors follow suit with your assertive approach this year? Thank you.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. Sanjit, thanks very much. I'm glad you asked the question about 1/4 1 into 1/4 2, because what I meant to refer to is that we don't have a global pricing moment, and in some cases, you know, this is happening on the first of January with immediate effect. In some of the markets, like in Europe, this usually takes some negotiation and some implementation time, market by market.

What I was actually referring to, is that we've taken the pricing, the agreements have been in place, but market by market, the full implementation date may differ and sometimes go into 1/4 2, which is why the compounding effect, what you've seen in 1/4 1, sometimes may be a little bit understated because in January it was not in place, but it was in place in February or in March or in April.

That was what I was meant to have said. That also brings me to the reason why I said what I said in my script. In some cases, in some markets, the full effect of the total basket of consumer goods inflation is not yet felt.

We remain a little bit cautious about, is the consumer indeed as resilient as possible? Because not only we will have the impact of not fully landing the pricing on shelf yet, other categories in the FMCG space may have the same thing as well. Also there, I think we've been consistently talking about this. That's what I meant about the incremental pricing 1/4 1 to 1/4 2. The second point is also relevant, is about the competitive landscape.

By and large, we are happy with the pricing that we've been taking, and by and large, we believe that we are competitive in the pricing that we have been able to land. I was quite specific that in the case of

Europe, we, as market leader, went early and now see competition or retailing pricing moving. Obviously, that's a retailer discretion. We do believe that in many of the markets that we've priced, we have not been outpriced.

We remain, however, vigilant because in many cases we've been leading pricing and we just need to make sure that we're not outpricing ourselves at the expense of volume. If so, we will adjust. At the moment we're pretty pleased with where we've landed, including in the competitive landscape.

Sanjeet Aujla
Managing Director, European Beverages Equity Research, Credit Suisse

That's really helpful. Just a quick follow-up on South Africa, have the brewery issues there all been resolved and business back to normal?

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

The brewery issues have been resolved. We confirmed that today. Our supply chain is back to normal.

Sanjeet Aujla
Managing Director, European Beverages Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Stirling of Bernstein. Trevor, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Research Analyst and Managing Director, Bernstein

Hello, Harold. Apologies if these questions were asked before, as I got slightly late, delayed onto the call. First on Brazil, seem to be very, very strong in the 1/4, particularly on the Heineken and the Amstel brands.

I guess any color you can give on the continued success in Brazil would be great. The final 1, second 1 is concerning commodities. I appreciate we're still way long to go yet, and we haven't even had the harvest yet in Europe, but it does look like commodity prices continue to move in the right direction. Is that the right read for what you see as well?

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Yeah. In terms of Brazil, indeed we continue to be almost very excited about what we see in Brazil. I think the momentum of both Heineken was very strong. What we're really pleased with, and we touched about this in the full year result, is that now also Amstel is starting to become meaningful and actually is growing extremely nicely.

We're very pleased with what we see in Amstel. Also there, I just want to make sure that we're not getting ahead of ourselves, because look, the competitive environment is also very strong and we have been taking pricing quite significantly. At this moment in time, Brazil is absolutely continuing on the same momentum with the same brands. Amstel becoming a relevant, growing part of the business, so very pleased.

That's where I think we are at this moment in time. I just want to be cautioning us a little bit of thinking that Brazil will grow forever at this pace because it is now becoming a really quite big scale business, and we're very pleased also with a little much slower, as long as it's sustainable.

That's not meant to do any disrespect to Brazil, by the way. I just want to share that this is a big business now. Secondly, on commodities, we see the same issue. It's indeed too early to start thinking about 2024 guidance. We haven't even started the discussion with the operating companies yet. We do see that indeed, commodities continue to trend down.

As you know, our hedging policies, we are hedging 12-18 months out, so that season is starting now.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Research Analyst and Managing Director, Bernstein

Super. Thank you very much, Harold.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

Okay, Trevor, thanks.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Research Analyst and Managing Director, Bernstein

Thank you.

Harold van den Broek
CFO, Heineken N.V.

I think. Yeah, exactly. Look, this was indeed an exceptional, and please don't get used to 1/4ly updates too quickly, please. The meaning of this call was to make sure that we are giving you the opportunity to ask questions, because clearly some of the markets, some of the bigger markets were not performing in the way that we were meant to perform over a longer period of time.

I hope that through this Q&A, we could put some light into that, confirming still the full year outlook. The second reason was very important to us to welcome Distell to Heineken now. Next week it will be completed, and we just wanted to make sure that the key metrics were fully understood and how we consolidate the 65% of the ownership.

That was the purpose of this call. Thank you for your great engagement, really relevant questions, and hope to see you soon again at the 1/2 year. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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