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Earnings Call: Q4 2015

Feb 18, 2016

Operator

Good morning, welcome to the Randstad fourth quarter and annual results 2015. My name is Tyler, I will be the coordinator for your call today. I will now hand over to this morning's host, Robert Jan van de Kraats, to begin.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Thank you so much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the discussion on our Q4 2015 and full year 2015 results. I'm here together with both Jacques van den Broek and Arun Rambocus. Given the fact that we have very nice results, the rest of the board is also participating here. We have here Chris Heutink, Linda Galipeau, and François Béharel next to some other staff supporting us. Today, we have also published our 2015 integrated annual report, which includes the 2015 audited annual accounts. The title of this annual report is "Tech & Touch," you can find it on our website. Also today, in the press release, we have included a paragraph on the updated arrangement with our founder, which has been strengthened further and is now future-proof. It confirms the existing long-term relationship and the focus on continuity.

Another point is during our Capital Markets Day in November, we have discussed the longer-term issues such as strategy, progress on strategy, including innovation, M&A, productivity, and efficiencies. Today, we will focus on a discussion of the results. I'm taking you through the presentation now, we'll follow with Q&A. I'm moving right away to slide five, which summarizes our Q4 quarter, which showed profitable growth. In our book, this was a good quarter. The key items of this quarter were revenue growth at 6.6 per working day. That compares to 5.4 in the third quarter. What we have seen in this quarter is that France has accelerated, while at the same time, growth remains stable in North America. Next to the Netherlands, Southern Europe, we also have France running in the European zone.

The gross margin improved by 20 basis points, which was partly the result of the perm fees going up, which is now 9.7% of gross profit. Our underlying EBITDA arrives at EUR 245 million, which is a 4.9% EBITDA margin. An organic full-year ICR, Incremental Conversion Ratio, or drop through of new gross profit into EBITDA of 52%, which gels well with our ambition of being around 50. Our adjusted net income arrived at EUR 193 million and an ROIC of 18.8, which is even higher than last year's. DSO, the key element of our balance sheet, arrived at 50.7 days, which also was an improvement compared to last year. The leverage ratio of the company stands at 0.2 at the end of last year. The proposed cash-only dividend has arrived at €1.68, that is a record high payout.

It is in line with the announcements made at the Capital Markets Day. The month of January showed us growth of 6.6%, and I'll get back to that when discussing the outlook. The full-year EBITDA margin arrives at 4.5%, which is in line with the guided range. Moving to slide six. Again, the margin is improving. We're on track. A few elements to mention on this slide. Full-year perm growth arrives at 14%. Again, the ICR, 52%, which was maintained throughout the year above 50%, which we consider to be in line with our ambitions. Moving to slide seven. This reflects the Randstad world in the various regional zones. The top line remains stable in most countries. If you look at the developments in Europe, France accelerated ahead of market and strong growth continues in the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain.

The stable growth in North America and certainly staffing performance in the U.S. is excellent, but also Canada is ahead of markets in a very challenging environment. In the emerging markets, we see growth held back somewhat because of challenging market circumstances, the green line looks like it's reducing. A big contributor here is the midst of Japanese elections, which happened in 2014 Q4. North America on slide eight. Stable growth in U.S. staffing. The revenue improvement arrived at 4%, in line with Q3. Perm was up again, and GP grew by 9%, also in line with Q3. The staffing business was up 7%, just a little better than Q3. U.S. professionals, the revenue development was flat year-on-year, and we have an ambition here to get closer to market. Also SourceRight continued to show significant growth at 16%. Canada was mentioned.

I'm very happy to see the EBITDA margin for North America arrive at 5.6% compared to 30 basis points lower the previous year. In the Netherlands, on slide nine, we see solid growth continuing. Revenue again at 9%, close to the previous quarter. Perm growth at plus 3% this quarter. Our combined staffing business grew at 7%. If one would exclude the payrolling business, which shows a different trend, the growth in this segment would even arrive at 13%. Professionals, very successful. Growth at 21%, even a bit higher than Q3. The vertical approach we are applying here is clearly paying off. The EBITA margin slightly lower, mainly the result of investments made in our SourceRight business, which serves the RPO and MSP clients. In France, on slide 10, we see accelerated growth ahead of market, even when adjusting for the relatively easy comparables of the previous year.

The revenue up 10%, our combined staffing and in-house business up 10%. If you look at the construction segment, that has started to show growth as well now, finally. Professionals growing significantly, 10%, and also perm continues nicely. That results in a sizable gross profit growth of 6%, our EBITA margin at 5.2%, which effectively, compared to last year, is a little lower, but the underlying trend is stable. Last year benefited from some subsidy-related releases. Germany on slide 11, it's improving. It shows improving profitability trends. Revenue roughly at the same level as the previous quarter. Gross profit up 13%, however. SMEs shows growth that outgrows the large client segment, which is in line with our strategy as communicated. Last year was impacted by the complications of the 13-week rule.

The EBITA margin improved significantly, and this is also resulting from the fact that last year we had to catch up at the end of the year because we were calibrating the impact of the 13-week rule. This year, this was better managed and distributed across the year. On slide 12, Belgium, a very nice level of profitability, a record profitability. We see growth moving to 6%, staffing and in-house even at 8%. Our gross profit was also up by 8%, but we continue to focus here on client profitability, and there are a few deals out there in the Belgium market that we have rejected and will continue to be very selective here. Iberia on slide 13. Strong growth continues on better margins even, 11% for the region. In Spain, 16% revenue growth.

Professionals continue to grow very high pace, 61%, and it's by now compared to more tough comparables. Our firm strategy works out quite well, but we continue to invest in growth in Spain. In Portugal, this term was a year of adjustment in the client portfolio, but now revenue is up 1%. Our contact center business continues to show good growth, and that results in improved gross profitability. If one looks at the details, for example, DSO, that's also improving as a result of client portfolio selections. EBITA margin of 5.2, a good 5.2. In the U.K., on slide 14, we see improvements step by step. The revenue is down this time by 4%. Gross profit was flat, but our specialties business is doing well despite a challenging market situation. Firm fees 11% up, EBITA margin now at 3.6. Slide 15.

The other European countries, we do see strong growth continuing across the board, more or less. In Italy, quite nicely, 19%, and our focus on specialties and firm is effective here. Also in Switzerland, we continue to see some improvements now back to growth of 3% ahead of a difficult market. Also, Poland accelerated again. In the Nordics, we are going to consolidate profits as from February 2016 onwards. We're very happy to have strengthened our position in the Nordics market, making us third largest player now with significant presence both in Sweden and also in Norway. Revenue growth at 7% of the year. This is the [Randstad book], clearly. Our EBITA margin is slightly lower than the previous year because of our investment in growth, but also we did have a specific impact in the last quarter of last year due to a release of the provision.

The rest of the world. Growth in challenging markets. I already mentioned the specific comparables in Japan, but Australia and New Zealand grew 5%. ACIA is now up 5%. Latin America continues to show growth at 15%. Our EBITA margin is reflecting our focus that has shifted from growth to profitability now at 1.5%. Slide 18 on the financials. The P&L was more or less discussed. One element were addressed with regards to gross profit. If you look at our GP over FTEs, so our productivity indicator is improved by 3.1%, which is slightly above the previous quarter. Just below the line, amortization and impairment, it now includes our RiseSmart acquisition. In Q4, this was included.

Our net finance and associates reflect a positive amount that is the result, not just of the fact that we have a very low net debt and that we pay very low floating interest rates, but also the fact that we have sold a position under associates disposal, and that was a positive one next to some foreign exchange effects here. Our tax rate comes in at 25.5%, a bit lower than expected in the earlier point in time, mostly the result of a revaluation of net operating losses. The foreign exchange impact in this P&L for the quarter, EUR 9 million at the EBITA level. For the full year, EUR 36 million at the EBITA. On slide 19, performance by revenue category.

The comments, I think to explain it, we continue to make investments in staffing. We have a pretty good level of profitability now in the quarter, 5.3% for the full year, 4.6%. Still room to improve here. In-house continues to do excellent with good growth, 12%. If you look at professionals, 5.8% now. It's leading the troops in terms of the returns, and that's the way it should be. We do see the IT vertical performing well, but also the Dutch professionals business is clearly contributing here. Our gross margin bridge confirms what I've said before, the permanent placement contribution here. We do see pricing pressure continuing in markets like the Netherlands, but it's offset by price improvements in other markets, amongst which is the American market. Operating expenses. This is a sequential comparison.

From Q3 to Q4, it went up sequentially with a marginally negative foreign exchange impact. We continue to make investments in the countries where we do see growth, especially in FTEs, and we had somewhat lower commission than expected in the emerging markets. Slide 22, the balance sheet. Net debt at EUR 173 million. The leverage ratio, I'm very proud to see our DSO arriving at 50.7, which is due to successful management of overdues, because we continue to see pressure in the markets on our agreed payment terms. Our working capital now more normalized at 3.2%. Last year was a very low point, 3.2%, that means if we grow, only 3.2% of revenues needed to grow. Return on invested capital, again, I'm very proud, 18.8%. Free cash flow on slide 23. Q4 showed a growth of free cash flow by 28%. That's a pretty good result.

You see purchase of ordinary shares there. That is the result of us repairing the dilution in the performance share plan. For the full year free cash flow, you see a moderate increase, but one needs to include here the fact that our provisions, a few lines above, have been used in 2015. They had been formed at the end of Q4 2014. They have been used in 2015. Next to that, we now have a more normalized use, as I mentioned, of working capital as a percentage of revenues going from 2.8% to 3.2%. If adjusting for that, a very normal picture. Our outlook on slide 24. Organic revenue growth came in at 6.6% in the quarter. January growth showed a level of 6.6%. If you look at the month of January, the Q1 comparison base is going to be 2.2% tougher.

I'm going to give you some indications on the revenue trend in the month of January due to working day calculation effects. We have, again, looked at this. We think that providing you with indications is more helpful than to give you precise rates. The implied exit rates in the Netherlands is high single digits. In France, also high single digits. In Germany, it's mid-single digits, clearly improving from the level in the previous quarter, mainly as a result of pricing. In Belgium, low single digits. In the U.K., it continues flat. Iberia, low double digits. North America, mid-single digits. The rest of Europe, high single digits, the rest of the world, mid-single digits, arriving at 6.6. Our volumes in the month of February, early February, because the month is only 18 days old, they indicate a continuation of the trend.

These are only the volumes that we measure weekly. That is what we believe we see up until today. Our forward visibility into March or into the second quarter is effectively absent. We have no recurring revenues that we can build any expectations on. This is what we know. Sequentially, the gross margin is expected to be seasonally lower. We do not expect a relaxation of the pricing pressure as mentioned for certain markets. There is no significant working day impact. That is because Easter falls in March this year versus April last year. Of course, February has an extra day. For Q1, we expect a moderate seasonal decrease in the underlying operating expenses sequentially, which is a typical trend. A final point to make is that we'll have our annual general meeting of shareholders.

We're inviting you on March 31st in Diemen in the Netherlands. On slide 25, a record high dividend proposal in line with our discussion at the Capital Markets Day. We have used the standardized formula. We adjust net profit for the dividend paid to preferred shareholders and the amortization of other intangibles. We have agreed that because of the strong financial position, the payout should be to the high end of the range, 50%, full cash, arriving at EUR 1.68. In terms of our strategic progress and our ranges, I'm not going to discuss this extensively with you because we did so at the Capital Markets Day. Just want to point out that our 5%-6%, in order to get there, I want to refer to the scenarios that we discussed at the Capital Markets Day.

In order to get there, we discussed a scenario with higher growth than we see today. At the same time, we have to make sure that our gross profit development and our mix development support this as well. Summarizing on slide 27, again, the key elements that I discussed with you at the beginning of this presentation, we now move to Q&A.

Arun Rambocus
Director of Investor Relations, Randstad

Operator, please.

To ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and star two to remove. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your phones are unmuted locally. The first question today comes from David Tailleur from Rabobank. David, please go ahead.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. Two questions. First of all, on the U.S., could you maybe give a breakdown between your blue collar and your white collar segment in terms of organic sales growth? I know it's not in the press release, but maybe you can shed a little bit more color on that. Then, secondly, on your dividend, the EUR 1.68, could we use that as kind of a floor for the coming years, or do you really believe that in sync with earnings trends, the payout could decrease and the EUR 1.68 could easily fall in sync with earnings declines potentially? Thanks.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

That's a challenging one there, David, the last one there. We're happy with the record dividend, then you ask us if this is continued going forward. We also made clear that given the balance sheet, we have now not given the option for stock dividend. If we see growth continuing long term, for sure our dividend will grow as well. As I mentioned, we have no clue what the growth rate will be going forward. Dividend will be a function of the success of the company.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

If I may, a quick follow-up on that there, because if you look at your balance sheet, you would have sufficient room to keep it stable, even if earnings would grow by, let's say, 10%, 20%. It will be a function of earnings.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

A function, of course, of M&A.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

Yeah.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

We made that also clear at the Capital Markets Day. We have a pipeline. You've seen Proffice coming through now. We continue to look at targets, but they need to fit our requirements, and that's challenging. We expect to be successful in some cases, but we'll see again at the end of the year.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

That's very clear. Thanks. Maybe the first question.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yep. Linda.

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah. On the U.S., I'll speak directionally. Certainly, blue collar was the fastest-growing segment and continued strong and started strong, good trends on the blue collar side. If we are thinking about the net fee line on the white collar and professional side, permanent continues very strong. It's all kind of how it washes out on the gross margin line. I would say no clear weakness in any segment and no significant change in any of the trends, though certainly blue collar remains our strongest growth area.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

Does it mean you're taking share, or do you believe the market in itself is also stable? Some of your competitors are actually not as bullish as you are.

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah. It's clearly both. We judge market by growth in existing customers, that remains strong. We judge share by winning new customers and new programs, it's about 60% new. 60% of the growth is coming from new wins, 40% from the market. I think we are picking up share and the market's fine.

David Tailleur
Analyst, Rabobank

Yeah. That's very clear. Thanks a lot to all.

Operator

The next question today comes from Chris Gallagher from JP Morgan. Please go ahead, Chris.

Chris Gallagher
Analyst, JP Morgan

Good morning. Couple of questions. The first, just if you talk a little bit about some of the pricing pressure you're seeing in Netherlands and France, whether that's intensifying. Secondly, just on healthcare costs in France for this quarter, can we get some guidance on how much that could impact the margin? Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah. Pricing pressure is continuing, and you see it in tenders. Certainly our French and our Dutch business, they do have quite a lot of big clients there for big tenders. In these markets, there are competitors who are underperforming their market. Apparently, that's the reason for some price aggressivity. We do see the same names, and I'm not quoting these names, of course, that's not elegant. Certainly in the Netherlands, we take our role as a market leader, by the way, also in Belgium, where we are selective. We do like to outperform markets. Well, time will tell because it's a trade-off. In France, yeah, we're outperforming. We're taking a lot of market share through our in-house business. Again, some parts are growing less, and we see them as aggressive players.

We try to offset this with our delivery models to get a higher productivity, it's definitely a trend. We cannot deny it. The only thing I can say is we are not initiating it.

Chris Gallagher
Analyst, JP Morgan

Just on that, sorry. Given one of your biggest competitors has mentioned they want to grow upmarket and they might not have been doing so recently, do you think there is a chance it gets worse?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah. Well, I don't know. I always find it a stunning lack of creativity to compete on price. I think it's very bad for the long-term outlook of the market. I also think there's different reasons to compete or different ways to compete, I cannot influence my competition. That's up to them. We'll see. Your question on the impact of the healthcare cost in France, we expect a small impact from that given the market situation, which was just discussed. Offsetting this with price increases is a bit more complicated, that's why we expect to see some impact of that in our P&L of the French business.

Chris Gallagher
Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Thanks for asking two questions. If others could stick to that as well. Thank you.

Operator

The next question today comes from Toby Reeks from Morgan Stanley. Toby, please go ahead.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi there. I'll stick to my two. You've given a level of global MSP revenue under management up 14%. Is that a strong level? Could you give us an idea of what that's been growing at? Could you, as part of the same question, give the level of actual revenue from you guys attached to that? The second question would be, you've indicated that your U.K. specialty business is performing well in an increasingly challenging environment. Could you talk a bit about which specialties, what you're sort of talking mean about the increasing challenging environment than maybe an outlook for the U.K., particularly as we head towards the referendum? Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah. If I understand you correctly, you are referring to the total volume of our business in MSP or RPO.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

You gave global MSP spend under management was up 14% in the quarter.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah. That's true.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Is that a particularly strong number? Is that an acceleration, a deceleration? Then could you give what that actually means for you in terms of revenue or gross profit? Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Of course, the revenue in MSP is always low because we just get the fee. The trend of the spend under management is, of course, 14% growth. Is that good or not? Depending on who you ask. When I talk internally, I always say it's not good enough. We do think it's an okay number. Maybe more telling is the RPO revenue, which is 22% up, and that's really fee-based profitable business. The business model in MSP is also, for us, far more important to deliver into these MSPs, which is a different number, and that revenue is just collected in the revenue of our businesses.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Is that 14% an acceleration, a deceleration? Could you give us an idea of how that sort of trended over the last four quarters?

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah. Well, a large chunk of our MSP spend under management is in the U.S. where the acceleration is even at a higher level. I would say that the MSP market in the U.S. is probably more mature in terms of new product adoption. We have definitely won a record number of new clients. I think the other thing to read into that number is that MSP in the U.S., which was traditionally more of a vendor neutral environment, there is an increased pressure or drive from the client to have a vendor positive environment, meaning they want to do business with a company that is doing more than just vendor management, that's providing a little bit more on the supply side and the solution design and what we've talked about for some time, the total talent architecture within the MSP program.

We're definitely seeing an increasing demand for that, and we are a first mover in that space in the U.S. and globally. I would interpret the 14% to be both a strong demand in Europe, a growing demand in Europe, and us picking up share globally, most particularly in the U.S.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

It's not significantly different from the rest of the year. It's clearly ahead of the growth of the company itself. Toby, we don't disclose the underlying revenues. We have a very high level of disclosure, and that's what we'd like to stick to.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, sure. On the U.K.?

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah, on the U.K. The U.K. had a disappointing second half of the year. Where we're definitely seeing improvements in the specialty business is in some of our alternative delivery. There, our SourceRight business performed particularly well. They were definitely the shining star in the fourth quarter. Underlying our CP&E business is still very healthy. Our education and care business is still very healthy. Some of our other segments, it is a tougher market, but we also have a performance gap to market that we're working hard to close. A lot of the alternative delivery, direct deliveries through the MSP and RPO programs is what's supporting the growth at the moment.

Toby Reeks
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

The next question today comes from Paul Sullivan from Barclays. Paul, please go ahead.

Paul Sullivan
Analyst, Barclays

Yeah. Good morning, everybody. Just some color on the German market situation from a volume standpoint. It sounds like it's still pretty flat. Is that the way we should think about it currently? What's going on in auto in particular? That's the first question. Just coming back on the U.S. It's interesting that you're doing so well on the blue collar side of things. The backdrop in manufacturing and light industrial seems to be pretty challenging. Everybody's talking about sort of industrial recession. Where do you see the disconnect there?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Well, let me do the German one. Linda will pick up on the U.S. We do see, throughout the year in Germany, a quite consistent improvement in volume. Indeed, also pricing is improving. We see Germany improving throughout the fourth quarter also and then into this year. I've got a feeling, of course, a lot of the volume, while less volume development in Germany compared to the rest of Europe, was due to the regulation change, which put a bit of a damper on the volume development for the last two years. It seems to be easing out, and we do see this steady volume increase. On auto, there are a few auto clients who not so much complain about volume development. Underlying, we see slightly less development in volume, but that's, again, due to regulation.

There is a regulation in Germany that if a temp has been working for two years

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Something needs to happen. We do see with some of our big auto suppliers that there is some increased hiring of our temps, which of course is good for the temps in general, but we have slightly less development. Overall, we're quite happy with the developments in Germany currently.

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

On the blue-collar side, logistics is definitely driving the growth more than manufacturing. I would also say, when you dig into our numbers, and this is true actually in all of our business lines in the U.S. The branch business today is not what's driving the growth on the contingent side, on the temporary side. The branch business remains very strong on the permanent placement side, but we see the demand in temporary is being driven by our solutions, in blue collar, that's RIS. This remains a very unique product offering in the U.S., and it is definitely the locomotive on our growth thing. There's no question about that. That's true across all of the sectors. It is the solutions, the more strategic business offerings that are driving growth far more than the traditional branch offerings.

I think we've just gotten ahead of the market in that regard, and it's helping us right now.

Paul Sullivan
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question today comes from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Tom, please go ahead.

Tom Sykes
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Morning, everybody. Sorry, another question on the U.S. first. The outlook for profitability improvement in the first half. What are your headcount ambitions? Also what indications or clarity can you give us on movement in non-wage labor costs? SUI and workers comp, please. On the Inhouse business. Obviously your organic growth overall for the group for the Inhouse business seemed to be about 12%, organic profits up 5%. Is that a function of pricing pressure? Is it a function of investment to drive the top-line growth? Could you just be a bit clearer about the profit outlook for the Inhouse business, please?

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

These are three questions there, Tom.

Tom Sykes
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I know.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

I'll help. You're naughty. I'll take the first and last one. In the returns, the Randstad Inhouse, there is a one-off case that we have settled, which has an impact specifically on the returns here. You should adjust for that, and then the pattern is normal. Your first question on future growth in FTEs in the U.S., it's the ICR that we are following here. The drop-through rate of new gross profit into EBITDA. That's where the U.S. staffing business has been growing for quite a few years now. That means the 50% is at the high end of the range. As they are in the fourth quarter, going forward, they'll be a little lower, but that's the way we measure the business.

Professionals is earlier stage of growth, but it is professional business where it always starts at a lower level, I mean the ICR, and that also steers us. Everything will be dependent on the rate of growth. Second question is?

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah. Workers' comp costs are now stable in the U.S. A couple of years ago, we did a lot of work on that, and I think we've grown them. I think on a percentage basis, they'll vary based on our mix. Obviously, blue collar is higher than white collar. I think that within each of the segments, they'll remain stable at this point. We don't see additional upside there. In terms of SUI, indeed, the SUI environment going into this year is slightly better. That is far more impactful on the commercial staffing side than on the professional side, certainly. We are also seeing a little bit of wage inflation. We want to make sure that our flexible workforce is appropriately paid in line with the outside market. We are reviewing pay rates and certainly passing those increases along to the clients.

The clients participate as we react to the market on the wage levels. SUI, yes, it is a favorable environment. It's not fully quantified yet because we're still hearing from some of the states. Maybe at the end of the first quarter, we can provide more guidance, but that will be a small upside there.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Okay. Finally, on the ICR in North America, if you again, just for this in-house case that I mentioned, the ICR over the last quarter was just north of 30%.

Tom Sykes
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you very much.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Sure.

Operator

The next question today comes from Marc Zwartsenburg from ING. Marc, please go ahead.

Marc Zwartsenburg
Analyst, ING

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Robert, you mentioned that you still have an active pipeline on M&A. Is there any change in your view, or are you becoming a bit more hesitant to do acquisitions due to the increased macro uncertainty? That's my first question. The other one is on your slide on track. One of the assumptions says mid-single digit sales growth in 2015 and 2016. I know what you said at the Capital Markets Day, does it mean that with the increase of certainty that perhaps you do less investments or less spend on marketing, just out of caution, and therefore that the ICR might come in a bit higher for 2016 than you initially thought in a growth scenario? Is that what I should read into mid-single digit sales growth, that is, say, around 5% is already enough? Those were my two questions.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Yeah. Marc, in these scenarios, we will respond to whatever happens in the market. Our outlook into March and Q2 is effectively nonexistent. It will very much depend on what's happening there, and then we will, at every day, reconsider our position, and in that context, look at whatever investments we want to make. I think the assumption you're showing is not the one that we have on the table. On M&A, the increased uncertainty in the financial markets, we also have noted clearly. When we prepare for M&A, we do extensive DCFs, and these DCFs always include peak and trough calculations. Timing of the peak and timing of the trough, that's where we have sensitivity. This is how we try to prepare.

If we see growth trends changing in the market, we probably will change those data points in our DCF calculation to other moments in the timing. That will have an effect on our valuation, and that then will have an effect on our willingness to pay a certain price. This is how we try to drive ourselves.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Marc, good morning. Jacques, here.

Marc Zwartsenburg
Analyst, ING

Good morning.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

We don't time M&A on where we are in the cycle. We time M&A because we want to create better positions, either in regions such as Proffice or in professionals portfolio, whatever. Then if everything works from the DCF point of view, but also from a, is the target willing to be acquired, then we're going to do it. If the market is then at minus five, well, then too bad. That, of course, also has some upside on price. We want to stay within the bandwidth of our financing so that the overall cost burden or how do you call it, investment burden doesn't really give us a lot of heartache. It's more of a long-term vision than just where the cycle is currently.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

In Jacques's example, if we have a negative market, then that has a direct impact on our DCF, and as such, on our willingness to pay a price. We have been rather, I would say, disciplined. If you look at our most recent acquisitions over the last couple of years, we have been rather disciplined, and we intend to continue doing that. If you look at our pipeline, the fact that we haven't announced too many deals is very much the result of that.

Marc Zwartsenburg
Analyst, ING

Okay. No, that's very clear. I just want to get a feel for whether the financial markets indeed and what's going on around in terms of PMIs is affecting your view on this year and perhaps on the cycle or in terms of M&A. That's a clear answer. Thank you.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Next.

Operator

The next question today comes from Hans Pluijgers from Kepler Cheuvreux. Hans, please go ahead.

Hans Pluijgers
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Question and Linda, of course. Sorry. Question first of all on the pricing, going back on that. A little bit of feeling is that there's a shift, let's say, from the pressure from the clients, more that now the pressure is coming, let's say, from the competitors on pricing. Could you a little bit elaborate on that, what you see there? See there a clear shift. Secondly, on the outlook for the Netherlands and investments, because over the last few years you have been, or the last year, have been growing quite significantly, are you then now close to, let's say, to maximum capacity? Do you plan to put in some additional headcount there? If you could elaborate a little bit on what you're seeing there.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

It's always a bit of a difficult question, where the pressure comes from. Clients, certainly when you talk to purchasing, which with large tenders in France and the Netherlands is the case, it's of course their objective to lower the price. That's where it starts. Then someone gives in or someone doesn't give in. We don't really know, and quite frankly, we don't really care where the pressure is coming from. I've got nothing to add to what I mentioned earlier. We do see some funny deals. Sometimes there's also, I didn't mention that, but sometimes clients get bought by private equity and they want to manage cash, and then you get some very funny requirements on payment terms. That's also sometimes for us a reason to walk away.

Again, we do see this as our role to keep a healthy environment going forward, sometimes at the expense of sacrificing revenue. We'll see how that continues into 2016.

Hans Pluijgers
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Maybe one follow up on that, because over the last few quarters, Belgium had not been really mentioned as where you see some additional pressure.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

No.

Hans Pluijgers
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Now you mentioned it. Is there something changing?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Well, it goes up and down. Belgium as a market is less a large client market, but we have seen, I can mention that again in the fourth quarter, a few large tenders coming in where we declined. On the one hand, we're getting in fourth quarter on the back of better field steering closer to market. Given the sacrifice of these clients, probably will go down a bit in growth in the first quarter. That's too bad. At the same time, we want to have a healthy book. That's happening. Belgium is then now on the radar screen again. On the Dutch business, we have been investing because on the one hand, we took out costs in the back office, but we have been investing. We've been in the front end in our businesses, in our staffing businesses.

If we see continued growth, we will continue to do so. Although in the Netherlands, it's less of a straight investment as in putting people in branches like we used to do, where we've mentioned at the Capital Markets Day that more and more of our business currently, a little over 60%, is not generated through the branches anymore. Investments in the Netherlands are far more into technology and different delivery models and therefore different profiles in people. It makes it a slightly different way to look at it.

Hans Pluijgers
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, thanks.

Operator

The next question today comes from Konrad Zomer from ABN AMRO Bank. Konrad, please go ahead.

Konrad Zomer
Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. My first question is on the assumptions to get to your margin guidance of 5%-6% in 2016. I refer to the slide where you mentioned mid-single-digit sales growth. I think that is what you've achieved, and I think you're currently growing a bit faster. Did I misunderstand it when I thought I heard Robert-Jan say during the prepared remarks that you need higher growth than what you currently achieve? Because I think mid-single digit is like 5 and you're doing 6.6. Are you not on track to get to that margin? My second question is on the U.S. professionals business, which produced no growth in the fourth quarter.

If we assume that the U.S. economy will continue to grow but maybe not accelerate, you've had 5 years of good growth, is it fair to say that it looks less likely that that business will start to grow for you going forward? I guess it would have happened by now if that business could grow in a healthy economic environment. Thank you.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Konrad, on the assumption, as you call it, for margin guidance, I think the wording is wrong here. It was something we discussed at the Capital Markets Day in November. At that point in time, we said it's not the guidance, it's the scenarios. We want to be very clear about that, explicit. These are scenarios. We also addressed the point you were now raising, and that is that in the meantime, between the first time showing this overview that you were referring to in 2014 and November 2015, something changed in the underlying development.

The statement we made in November was that if growth would continue at the level that we saw at that point in time, which was close to 8%, just below 8%, then assuming a certain development in Gross Profit and mix changes, which typically come with further growth, it should be feasible to arrive at the low end of that range. That's what we said at the moment. I was also very clear in the remarks during the presentation, the current growth rate is not enough to get there, clearly. The things you should keep in mind is our focus is on market share whenever appropriate, but at the same time, we need to make sure that we get decent returns here. The second point is that we look at ICRs.

That's where we gave you some guidance also at the Capital Markets Day, that sort of in every scenario should help you to get to a certain outcome. I hope this clarifies.

Konrad Zomer
Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Yeah, I misunderstood, and I was slightly wrong-footed by the fact that the slide in your pack today still talks about the mid-single digit sales growth. I understand now.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

No, thanks for asking, Konrad, because this helps us to make sure that people understand this. Thanks.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Just to clarify also a bit on how we manage the company. You saw with a competitor of ours what happens if you focus just on the percentage return. We're not managing the business on the percentage return, we're managing the business on growth and the investments in growth. Yeah, profit is a result of that. Please keep it in that order.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

U.S., Linda, the U.S. prof?

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah, U.S. prof, the market is healthy. The IT market, which is half of our business, remains very healthy. We have an underperformance due to our failure to aggressively evolve delivery models on the professional side, but the way we have on the staffing side. We continue to address that. We have new leadership on the F&A business, which is a very strong business. That's already yielding dividends. In the IT business, we are moving aggressively to accelerate the evolution of their delivery model. The market is strong. We're underperforming. I find that heartening because it's much easier for us to address our performance in the market. I still think that remains quite an opportunity for us going forward.

Even if other segments were to soften, which we have not yet seen, but even if they were closing the gap to IT, it's certainly a lot of us.

Konrad Zomer
Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Okay. Thank you.

Robert Jan van de Kraats
CFO, Randstad

Thanks.

Operator

The next question today comes from Laurent Brunelle from Exane BNP Paribas. Laurent, please go ahead.

Laurent Brunelle
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Yes, good morning. Two quick ones for me, please. First, in France, could you maybe give us more color about the trends by your segment? You've been saying that the construction business was backed growth. Is it correct? Could you comment a bit on the manufacturing sector as well, please? Second, is there any new elements regarding your cost-saving target for 2016, please? Thank you.

François Béharel
President, Randstad France Group

Okay. Your first question regarding every sector. In 2015, François Béharel speaking, sorry. In 2015, all sector have improved the pace. Clearly excluding the construction sector of minus 2% through the year. The good news come from Q4 because double-digit growth in construction. It will help the total staffing market in 2016. The automotive sector is doing very well, also manufacturing, also aeronautics on logistics. As you mentioned before, everything is green excluding construction, but it's much better today. The second point regarding cost saving, we are not concerned. The project concerned the whole company in a

At the group level also.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Just adding to what François said, we have had our EUR 60 million, EUR 70 million ambition, we're right on track here. At the Capital Markets Day in November, we announced another element, which is the IT data centers and data communication side, where we expect to see the savings coming in gradually, that is going to happen following this year, after this year, it's going to be step by step. Final point to make here is we run productivity, Jacques referred it just before. We run productivity every day. Through activity-based field steering, we should show improved productivity, that is what is leading us. These bigger projects are to address the back office or to address structures like IT.

Laurent Brunelle
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Okay, thank you very much. Just maybe on France, could you remind me your mix? I mean, what is your exposure to construction? Is it in line with the market, below 20%?

François Béharel
President, Randstad France Group

It's less than 20%. Sorry, it's less than 20%.

Laurent Brunelle
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Thank you.

Operator

The next question today comes from Josh Puddle from Berenberg. Josh, please go ahead.

Josh Puddle
Analyst, Berenberg

Yeah. Hi, good morning, gentlemen. First question, can you talk about why your perm growth slowed in Q4 in the Netherlands? Then also following on from that, in the last quarter, you talked about significant marketing investment made in that market. Was this across all segments, or was it specific to a certain part of the business? Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

There is three things in the Netherlands, why the perm growth is easing a bit. The first one is a reclassification of what last year was like what we've called perm business in Yacht. By the way, Yachts are doing very well, not so much in the perm, mostly it's the competent and professional staffing. That gives a bit of a negative, but it's more of a reclassification of revenue. The second one is the fact that we've created the EMEA Sourceright, so European organization. That part of the perm business has been, again, reclassified into that business, and that's a fast-growing area. The third one is that it's growth over growth. It is somewhat tougher to keep up growth, but we're working at it. The 22% growth in RPO contains some of that. Definitely Dutch business.

Josh Puddle
Analyst, Berenberg

Yeah.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Large client, Dutch business.

Josh Puddle
Analyst, Berenberg

On the marketing?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

No, I don't recognize marketing investments in perm. There are sales investments in perm. We train our people. We're going much more out to sell. I don't recognize sizable out-of-pocket marketing expenses in perm. I don't know where you get that from.

Josh Puddle
Analyst, Berenberg

I thought you talked about last time a big step up in marketing investment made in the Netherlands market as a whole. I was just wondering which segment that was focused on.

Chris Heutink
Member of the Executive Board, Randstad

Just to confirm. I mentioned in the Capital Markets Day, I think the three commercial campaigns, for Tempo-Team, Randstad, and Yacht. That's true. You can see it in tele.

Yeah.

Not specifically with perm.

Josh Puddle
Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Thank you.

Chris Heutink
Member of the Executive Board, Randstad

Just we invest in the branding of the three brands.

Operator

The next question today comes from Yves Franco from KBC Securities. Please go ahead.

Yves Franco
Analyst, KBC Securities

Hey, good morning, gentlemen. Only one question left from me. Wondering a bit about the Dutch building blocks into the EBITDA margin. It is fair to assume some pricing pressure in staffing, but can you give us some light on the profitability seen in the professional segment, given that it is growing at substantial higher rates now? We see a 20 basis points decline in the margin year-on-year. Is that pure pricing pressure from staffing and investments being bigger than some savings, or do we also see some slowing profitability in the professionals business?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah. There are two things that follow that development. First of all, we did not mention that, but Rob Jan did a bit, but it is a payrolling business. Our payrolling business is roughly 10% of our total revenue in the Netherlands.

Quite a large client, if you might call it that, is the government. They have issued an internal statement that they want to sort of get rid of payrolling. I do not know why. You should ask them. Anyway. That is quite a decline. Funny thing about the payroll business is although it comes at a relatively low margin, it comes at a very high leverage because it is a fully automated or highly automated part of our business. It eats into our leverage, if you will. The second one is the investments we are doing in the Sourceright organization. We have created this European Sourceright organization. We are scaling. We are upfront investing because we do think, and it is already growing very fast, that this is going to be a big part of our organization. We are investing in Budapest, our sourcing center that you know of.

We've invested in quite some product management and development, that also eats into our leverage. If you take those two out, the underlying development, including the pricing pressure, by the way, in the Netherlands, is quite stable.

Yves Franco
Analyst, KBC Securities

Okay. If you look at the costs taken out, investment done, that's broadly net flat or could you give a call on that on the Netherlands?

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Yeah.

Yves Franco
Analyst, KBC Securities

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The last question today comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs. Suhasini, please go ahead.

Suhasini Varanasi
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. In interest of time, I'll keep it very short. Just one question. On the U.K. market, you saw a nice pickup in growth in perm, +11% in Q4. Can you give some detail on whether it was the market which drove this growth or whether it was execution by Randstad? Because some of the other data points we've seen on perm growth in Q4 were actually weak. Thank you.

Linda Galipeau
CEO of Randstad North America, Randstad

Yeah. As I mentioned earlier, the perm growth in our traditional business was disappointing. The uptick in perm is entirely related to an increased adoption of our Sourceright product. What you're seeing is our increased ability to do direct delivery through our MSP RPO program through Sourceright. That's what's driving the perm growth. The underlying traditional perm market, I think is challenging, and our performance against that market was disappointing.

Suhasini Varanasi
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Operator?

Operator

We have no further questions on the phone lines.

Jacques van den Broek
CEO, Randstad

Excellent. Well, ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us at this call. We're looking forward to either talk to you at the general meeting of shareholders later in the month of March or at the next announcement of the first quarter results in the month of April. Thank you so much. Have a good day. Bye.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call.