Ladi`es and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to the SBM Offshore third quarter 2025 trading update conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question during the session, please press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. I would now like to hand over the conference to Mr. Charles Alby, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Razia, and thank you all for joining us today. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website. Today's prepared remarks will be delivered by our CEO, Øivind Tangen, followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to point out the disclaimer at the bottom of our press release and remind participants that some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements reflecting SBM Offshore's view of future events. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to materially differ from our forward-looking statements. The risks are included in detail in SBM Offshore's 2024 annual report, which can be found on the company's website. Once again, we will welcome your questions after the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Øivind.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join SBM Offshore's third quarter 2025 trading update call. I am Øivind Tangen, CEO of SBM Offshore, and I'm joined today, as usual, by our CFO, Douglas Wood. Starting with our performance over the last quarter, our teams continued to deliver strong results in line with the plan. We are very pleased to report a directional revenue of $3.6 billion for the third quarter of 2025, up 26% compared with the third quarter of 2024. As a direct result of this strong performance, we have increased our EBITDA guidance for the year from above $1.6 billion to around $1.65 billion. The increase reflects our ability to execute complex projects across the globe despite challenging global economic and geopolitical conditions with consistency and reliability.
The remarkable performance achieved in all our regions of the Lease and Operate activities attests to the quality and efficiency of our operations, with the fleet uptime standing at 99.4% at the end of the third quarter. On the execution side, we have delivered three major units in 2025. After FPSO's Almirante Tamandaré and Alexandre de Gusmão reached first oil in February and May, respectively, FPSO One Guyana successfully achieved first oil in August. These units have demonstrated excellent track records in terms of installation efficiency, pace to flare out, and ramp up to full production. In October 2025, FPSO Almirante Tamandaré was producing 270,000 barrels of oil per day, well above its original nameplate capacity of 225,000 barrels of oil per day. This was achieved in less than eight months after first oil.
These three vessels bring the size of our fleet to 17 FPSOs, with a total installed production capacity of 2.7 million barrels of oil per day and a daily production above 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, increasing and increasing with further ramp-up ahead of us. We continue to progress as per plan on our three turnkey projects. On FPSO Jaguar, the topside modules fabrication is progressing as per plan, and first oil is expected in 2027. On FSO Kulthi, following the first steel cutting milestone in the last quarter, construction activities are progressing as per plan, including the fabrication of the disconnectable turret mooring system. On FPSO GranMorgu , engineering and procurement activities are well advanced, and vessel work and topside modules fabrication continue to progress as per plan.
Under the Fast Forward Program, a total of eight hulls have been delivered, of which six are in operation and two have been completed and delivered to projects under construction. MPF hulls number nine and ten are under construction, supporting active discussions with clients driven by a strong FPSO market outlook in the deepwater segment. We see increasing market activity in our key regions in the Atlantic Basin, and we continue to remain disciplined and pursuing only the highest quality projects in the market. Our recent tender submission for the SEAP I and SEAP II FPSOs were the most competitive bids in an open competition for Petrobras. These units are large and complex FPSOs with significant gas treatment facilities. This demonstrates SBM' s industry-leading position and expertise of the market. We're also pleased to share another milestone in our offering of floating solutions with reduced emissions.
In September 2025, SBM Offshore secured the American Bureau of Shipping's approval in principle for the design of a Blue Ammonia FPSO, marking a key step in the company's roadmap to contribute to the energy transition. By integrating carbon capture and ammonia production technologies, the design enables offshore production of low carbon ammonia. This innovative design complements SBM Offshore's portfolio solutions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reinforces its strategy to bring to market more sustainable ocean infrastructure options for our clients. The ambition to increase operational efficiency and improve asset lifecycle performance has also prompted the signature of two strategic collaboration agreements in October with Cognite and SLB. These partnerships will enhance digital asset management of our fleet by deploying an AI-driven data platform designed to improve operations. Through our respective domains of expertise, we are elevating fleet performance to higher standards of safety, efficiency, and reliability.
Now to financials. For the third quarter year- to- date, the company's directional revenue increased by 26% to $3.6 billion compared with the same period last year, driven by directional turnkey, which stood at almost $2 billion, an increase of 90% or over $900 million compared to the same period in 2024. The year-on-year improvement mainly reflects the progress booked under the Sail and Operate model of FPSOs GranMorgu and Jaguar. Directional Lease and Operate revenue was $1.6 billion, 11% below the same period last year due to the sale of FPSOs Prosperity and Liza Destiny in Q4 2024. This was only partially offset by FPSO Almirante Tamandaré, Alexandre de Gusmão, and One Guyana joining the fleet in 2025. Our net debt position was $5.8 billion for the period up to September 30, 2025, a very slight 2% increase compared with the same period last year.
This reflects the high level of activity and some temporary financing requirements between milestone payments under the Sail and Operate model. ExxonMobil Guyana has indicated that it could exercise its contractual purchase option to acquire the FPSO One Guyana in early 2026, ahead of the end of the maximum lease term. This is a clear vote of confidence in our Sail and Operate model where we transfer ownership of the asset and continue to provide operation and maintenance services, leveraging the gains of SBM Offshore's Fast Forward design and cumulative operating experience of our fleet. An early purchase would result in an accelerated reduction of our total debt by $1.7 billion, as the project loans will be repaid in 2026 and have a positive effect on the result and operating cash flow in 2026.
This contract would then move to an O&M-only basis, in which case we will update the backlog accordingly. Finally, regarding cash return to shareholders, the EUR 141 million share repurchase program is progressing and will be circa 71% complete on November 12, 2025. Following partial completion of the program, SBM Offshore canceled 5 million ordinary shares on November 3, 2025, representing 2.8% of the company's issued share capital. We remain on track to distribute a minimum of $1.7 billion for the period of 2025 up to and including 2030. Given the strong market outlook I just mentioned, we would expect to add more projects in the coming years. This, plus the flexibility that we have in the existing backlog, means that we remain confident in our ability to grow our returns beyond the $1.7 billion.
To conclude, we're confident in our ocean infrastructure experience, the expert capabilities of our teams, and the resilience of our business model. The strong results for this quarter clearly demonstrate that our dedication to excellence in every aspect of our work is a strategy that pays, as evidenced by increasing the company's directional EBITDA guidance for 2025 to around $1.65 billion, reconfirming our existing target to deliver a minimum of $1.7 billion cash return to shareholders until 2030, with upside from the existing backlog and anticipated new orders. A strong market for new-built, large, and complex FPSOs, with tendering levels rising across key regions. Successfully delivering FPSOs Almirante Tamandaré, Alexandre de Gusmão, and One Guyana in a six-month time span, all while maintaining high safety records and excellent uptime. This concludes today's call. Thank you for listening. Operator, we can now open the call for questions.
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Once again, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of Guilherme Levy from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.
Hi, good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one, if you can comment on the environment for new orders over the coming quarters, you have obviously placed the best bid for Petrobras's SEAP FPSOs. At the moment, you have two MPF hulls under construction. I am also wondering how quickly could you order additional hulls into next year, depending on the progress that you make on the next orders and on the next bids. Secondly, if you can comment on working capital moves now in the fourth quarter, and where do you see your directional net debt falling into by year end? Thank you.
Thank you for your question and good morning. New orders coming quarter. We see, as I said, a very lively market as we've been coming for some period. We are active in discussions with, of course, Petrobras on following the lowest bid on the SEAP I and II. We will see and hopefully can achieve success on that. We are also, as we've indicated before, in the bidding process of the Venus development for Namibia. We are seeing more in the pipeline happening in Brazil. We hope to see the Guyana pipeline continue to develop. I would say right now, from an MPF perspective, we have two under construction, and we are well positioned with slots for all the prospects we see emerging as well ahead of us. In terms of award date, that is not in our court.
That is really in our client's court, but we do hope that both 2026 and 2027, we should be able to add to our backlog. Douglas, on working capital?
Yeah. Especially with the new Sail and Operate model, it introduces a bit of short-term volatility because sometimes we need to work to bridge between milestone payments from the client. That is basically the variable that we have, depending on whether some fall just at the end of the year or slightly afterwards. I would say overall, we would expect then the debt level to be stable or maybe a bit lower. As I project forward, though, just to reemphasize, the direction of travel remains that we are deleveraging in the context of the award landscape being Sail and Operate only. All of the projects, the lease and operate projects we have, are continuing to pay down. To the extent that the purchase from Exxon of One Guyana goes ahead, as Øivind mentioned in his remarks, we would see instantaneously a $1.7 billion reduction early next year.
Yeah, there can be some sort of swings as we go, but the trend to 2030 remains very consistent with what we've been seeing, and we expect a significant deleveraging.
Understood. Thank you.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Philip Ngotho from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please ask your question.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question that I have is on the recent announcement that you announced of the agreement with COSCO on construction of new hulls. Could you maybe elaborate a little bit on the thinking behind it, why you're adding another supplier and a partner to this? Is that related to just seeing more potential work or less capacity at your other partners that you're working with for the hull construction? The other question I have is, I've been also reading that there's more interest now also from financial institutions potentially looking to reengage again in the sector with financing, potentially FPSOs, and maybe in that sense, the lease and operate model that might become also a bit more attractive. How do you see that?
Are you already seeing indications of that, that potential clients are actually also looking at more of lease and operate contracts? Maybe the last point, I know it's early days, but if the sale does go ahead of FPSO One Guyana, and that means accelerated cash flow to the company, would you also be considering or doing additional share buybacks on top or special dividends in some form? Those are my questions.
Thank you. All right. The first one, COSCO. Our strategy Fast Forward is about thinking ahead. Of course, as we said, we see a very good market ahead of us. We want to say we are very happy with the partnerships we have with existing MPF builders, SWS and CMHI. There is a lot of construction activity, not only in oil and gas. When we project forward, we obviously look at award rates and line it up with the capacity projections in our partnership yards. COSCO is a yard where we had a very good development of our relationship through the Alexandre de Gusmão project. Having an agreement on potentially also building MPFs in that yard is just a way of anticipation and planning ahead on capacity needs.
It is a strategic move in line with our thinking over the last decade already. On the other two, I will leave Douglas to answer those.
Morning, Philip . On your first question about Lease and Operate, I would say relative to the banks, I think we've continued to see a good level of appetite. While some banks that we were working with had pulled back, others came into the market. You saw that on the Jaguar construction financing that we did, there was a lot of appetite for that, it was oversubscribed. We still see a strong level of appetite there. I guess the one thing that changed and does have quite a big impact was the fact that most export credit agencies pulled back. Let's see, but I'm not seeing a lot of indications that that is changing. Export credit agencies have quite a role to play in the past for long-term financing, especially in places with the low investment grade rating, which is pretty much everywhere where we operate.
That said, we've been working very hard to broaden the relationships with financial institutions to allow us to be very much in the long-term lease and operate financing market. You saw that we did the refinancing of Parity with Chinese leasing houses earlier this year. That's one long-term opportunity. On the financing that we're working on at the moment for the Kulthi FSO , we're looking there to do a multi-tranche financing, including infrastructure funding. I think we still have a lot, we have many tools that we can offer to be able to offer long-term lease and operate. As I mentioned, right now, all of the prospects that are in our kind of pipeline that we're pursuing are on a Sail and Operate basis, but potentially with maybe some softness in the oil price, some clients may appreciate a financing option, so we're ready there.
I would not say that it is the end of Lease and Operate, and we are ready to support our clients with financing and looking to use that actually as our capabilities there as a differentiator to secure new awards. You had the question about what is the thinking around the One Guyana purchase. Of course, we have been really focusing on that six-year period from this year to 2030. The overall cash flows there, the $1.7 billion that we have committed. There is upside beyond that just from the existing backlog. That is the $1.1 billion in the existing backlog. Plus, of course, we are planning to win new awards. One Guyana is then already, because it was supposed to be purchased 2027 latest, that was already in the thinking. It is kind of already there.
As we mentioned, if we have an acceleration into 2026, yes, that means we'll get more money in 2026. We'll be able to repay the debt a bit earlier than previously anticipated. As Øivind mentioned, the contract changes to an O&M. That'll mean for the remainder or for going forward, we'll be on an O&M basis. For the period up to 2027, we won't have the charter that was currently in the backlog. There are kind of pluses and minuses in the whole equation there. As Øivind mentioned, the $1.7 billion is the minimum. We're looking to, I think we see upside in terms of the returns, which we should be able to deliver. This timing of the purchase doesn't really change our overall planning there.
Okay. Thank you. Very clear.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Luuk Van Beek from Degroof Petercam , please ask your question.
Yes. Good morning. Two questions. First of all, I suppose that you win the two Petrobras FPSOs on which you are the lowest bidder. Is that a capacity constraint for all the other things that you have in the pipeline, or does that match timing-wise with your capacity of two contracts per year at a maximum? My second question is about the addition of COSCO for the hull construction. The other two yards have gone through the learning curve and I think have become more efficient. Will there be a significant impact of COSCO doing the first hull and maybe having some learning to do?
Okay. Thank you, Luuk. SEAP II and I and capacity. If we are successful in both, it is, of course, within the existing capacity. We just delivered three units.
It does not mean that we have to be more selective than previously on the prospects that are in the market. You mentioned our capacity is limited to two per year. I do not think that is what we said. I think we said six in parallel. We have other avenues. If there is upside above that, it could be through partnering or other execution models to be opportunistic while staying disciplined. For sure, it does not limit our pursuit of other prospects in the market. COSCO and efficiency gains. The learning on the MPFs is not inherently only in the yard. It is in the overall sequencing and the way we execute the hulls. The engineering lies within SBM's realm. We have very successful work executed by COSCO, including the integration of the MPF and the topside modules on the Alexandre de Gusmão.
I don't see bringing COSCO as any loss of efficiencies, more an expansion of capacity.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Mick Pickup from Barclays. Please ask your question.
Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may, just on the SEAP projects. I do not think, Douglas, you say everything in the pipeline is Sail and Operate, but the SEAPs appear to be build, operate, transfer projects on a six-and-a-half-year basis. That looks like an old-fashioned lease to me. So why, if everything is Sail and Operate, are we going after those two particularly? On those two SEAP projects, I was intrigued to see a new competitor bidding and fairly closely. Somebody who has not done anything of that complexity. Can you just talk about the competitive landscape if new Indians could turn up? I have a final one on AI afterwards, but we will start with those two, please.
All right. Thank you, Mick. I'll let Douglas talk to the BOT and Lease and Operate similarities.
Yep. Morning, Mick. The term is used build, operate, transfer. First, it is basically a Sail and Operate contract, not to be confused with our own BOT that we were using in Guyana. The way it works is you get milestones from the client through construction. There is zero debt. Then you have an operating contract, an O&M contract for six years. It really is, if you like, classic Sail and Operate, but with maybe a shorter operating period than some of the other projects.
Okay. The press I've seen quoted is day rates of like $1.7 million a day, which would look like a typical lease type number.
No. Yeah, I don't.
No, they're separate. We bid separate contracts. There's basically an EPC contract and an O&M one.
Okay. Thank you.
All right. Competitive landscape. I think there was no surprise to us as to who was participating there, who we see elsewhere in the competitive landscape. I think we're really happy to see that we came in with the most competitive bid on the SEAP development. I mean, you can always fear that as we progress and on more large and complex units, that it's good to have some benchmarking on how we stand competitive-wise. The SEAP tender was a good testament that we have managed to stay very good in combining technical solid solution with economical solid solution. There's always been in the FPSO business companies coming and going. I think we'll see that dynamic continuing as well. We believe in our value proposition standing out to take the prospects that we pursue or a fair market share, at least.
Just push on to, obviously, you've made a couple of moves on the digitalization AI front. I struggle with digitalization and AI intersect. Given that your uptime is 99.5% already, what are the big benefits from this?
Yeah. Very good. So it's a journey, Mick. What we do is talk about lifecycle optimization. You got a few levers, right? One is to use data and the scale of data that we have to make sure you have the best availability of your systems. Combined with that, at the lowest operating cost, of course. That's the margin generator. You have as well the way you manage integrity scopes on larger units. Very much of the scope offshore is linked to risk-based modeling. The better data you have and your improved ability to use data is how you can optimize scope and effectively do the right scope. Because as you know, as regulations and systems evolve, there are always layers of conservatisms that are in the systems.
By the right use of data, you will be able to peel those away and demonstrate the integrity of all the barriers and efficiency gains through that. The journey has been structuring data, then industrializing our ability to leverage those data through the implementation of data platforms that is giving you better access to all your data. That is, you can say, the Cognite element. SLB is efficient tools to plug into your data platform in order to effectively make decision-making how to use the data and translate it into reduced scope or better monitoring. It is about protecting the upside. 99.4%, as you say, is very good. It is about cost levels associated with that, keeping in mind that on the fleet of 17 FPSOs, the running of X is quite high.
There is, we believe, significant value creation in lowering that on average over the next 25 years that our fleet is running. Current fleet, that is.
Cheers.
Thank you.
Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Thijs Berkelder from ABN AMRO - ODDO BHF. Please ask your question.
Yeah. Good morning. Thijs here. Congrats with the strong performance again. First, let's start again with SEAP on simply explaining the timing, maybe that everyone understands it. Am I correct in concluding that SEAP, in principle, is a sequential project? Meaning that you, in principle, would start up SEAP I first and then a year later would start up SEAP II, meaning that production dates are also one year after the other. Secondly, according to my understanding, the only thing which Upstream did on your, let's say, bidding amount is divided by the number of days of six and a half years. That explains the concluded day rate according to that magazine. Of course, it has nothing to do with your contract. Am I right in those conclusions?
Okay. Sorry.
No. Let's do it one by one.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you on the recognition. Yeah, we do feel the company is continuing to perform very strongly operationally. That is an evolution we want to carry forward. When it comes to SEAP, I think the sequence, the way sort of materializing today is probably SEAP II and then SEAP I. These are two separate awards. The spacing in between is driven by Petrobras. We can argue if there were to be two awards, what would be the optimum of that in order to leverage synergies, etc. At the end of the day, the time schedule on any of these two awards and how they connect is really down to Petrobras.
We do feel that there is really good traction in the dialogue we're having with Petrobras in order to find the best development solution to create the win for them and for us. Sorry. What was the?
It was the Upstream.
Oh, the Upstream article. Yeah. Honestly, I'm not sure I read it. Douglas, I think, has described very accurately the contract structure. I think for those subscribing, this should also be available to the official website in terms of how that bid was and the various prices for the various types of contracts that incorporate the bid.
Yeah. But the timing, in principle, this assumes that you have, if you would reserve one hull for SEAP II first, then another hull is available for another contract award. That's my conclusion.
We have hulls for all the permutations of awards and non-awards. That is not an issue.
Okay. Very good. Another question. Almirante Tamandaré is producing amazingly, I think, now 20% above nameplate capacity or so. Does that bring you an extra one-off bonus, or does that bring you a structurally higher rate or fee from the client? How should I see that? In the future, will we see this happening more?
Okay. We're very happy with the performance of Almirante. I think we're also seeing the ramp-up of One Guyana happening at similar levels. Maybe you've seen as well, I think it was published yesterday night, that the Guyana production reached 900,000 barrels. We are very pleased with the performance of all our assets. There's still ramp-up margin. When you say nameplate, there's an original nameplate, and then we look at optimization as we get the real data points as we start production. It's producing within the nameplate, adjusted nameplate of today. Commercially, I think there are interesting discussions going around in terms of potential compensation for some of these upsides. As we are able to materialize that, that will become part of our news publications subsequently. It is creating a good win.
We're hopeful that maybe we'll have some upside from that as well.
Those discussions are not yet part of your current guidance, or is that more for 2026?
No. No. No, they're not.
Cool. Okay. Can we expect further refinancings of Brazilian FPSOs?
Douglas?
Yeah. I think it's certainly something that we're looking at and with more of a view to optimizing cost of finance rather than accelerating cash. Because of course, that's happening naturally with the Sail and Operate model. Yeah, we're definitely, if the market and interest rate environment is favorable, we'll be certainly looking to see if we can optimize cost of financing there. Maybe just a comment on your previous one. There are opportunities, but at least the way we understand it is the increase, the way the field operate may not be for a very long period of time. I'm just trying to manage expectation about the overall impact there.
Yeah. Good correction or addition, Douglas.
Yeah. Depletion always is there. Can you maybe update us on what could be potential timing of a first blue ammonia FPSO? Further, can you update us on what potentially is the plan for your Angolan FPSOs?
Okay. Two different questions. Blue Ammonia, obviously, we are in the very early stages of looking at the feasibility and after that, the economics of a Blue Ammonia FPSO. There is the market side. I think from that perspective, what we're working through our affiliate Imodco is really around understanding the evolution of the ammonia market through the terminals business, where we have loading terminals, also in the past known as convoys, for oil. Now we have made that ammonia ready. That's our precursor into the ammonia market. This is still very early days for that. There are many things that need to fall into place. We are not having a big spend around this.
It is about leveraging our capabilities in a decarbonization journey to see both monitoring market evolution and deploying the skills in different configurations that we have through our decarbonization journey and modularization capability in a similar fashion that we've modularized the carbon capture solution and can fit that on a new FPSO. It is a longer-term journey. Remind me, was there another point?
Angola.
Angola.
Yeah. Sorry. I'm reflecting as we go along. Angola. There is a lot of engagement with Exxon around Block 15 and potential extensions of the Kizomba C units for Angola. We hope Angola has been a cornerstone of SBM Offshore's operating fleet for decades. We're hopeful as well that we've come to a landing on bringing those assets to a longer life.
Thanks.
Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Guillaume Delaby from Bernstein. Please ask your question.
Yeah. Two quick questions. First, maybe a more macro one. You mentioned an acceleration in your business. Maybe could you share with us, I would say, could you provide a little bit of color? When have you noticed some kind of change? Was it during the summer? Maybe can you provide us with one or two details on that? The second question, which is essentially a housekeeping question for Douglas, what kind of full-year depreciation should we expect? Is $500 million for the full-year reasonable, or will it be higher?
Okay. Thank you, Guillaume. The acceleration is not much more than just a validation of the pipeline that we have been talking about over the last period. We are seeing projects moving from in the tender phase and the tenders coming to the market. Active today, Avenirs, SEAP II and I. There is Búzios 12 also in the market. Of course, Exxon are progressing their pipeline. There is no real shift. We are coming into the critical phase of many of those on the journey to FIDs for many of those prospects that we have been monitoring already for quite some time. We see behind there, there are new prospects coming as well. We are on high activity level in our commercial part of our organization. There are no surprises.
We have been ahead of this, thinking ahead of this, specifically in terms of capacity management in-house, supply chain, and also construction, which is reflected in the actions we have taken that you have already discussed in this call. The housekeeping and that, I will leave that with Douglas.
Morning, Guillaume. I love to take care of the housekeeping. I think I would say you're pretty good with your forecast there of the $500 million. Very reasonable.
Thank you very much.
Cheers. Thank you. Merci.
We are now going to take our next question. The questions come from the line of Quirijn Mulder from [Hetnet]. Please ask your question.
Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Congratulations with the wins of [Cherrypagala goals]. Because I think that's a nice milestone here. Given the focus on gas, does it help you with regard to the focus on long tail for Guyana? Because that's also gas-related. Are you more specializing now in gas for whatever reason? That's my first question. The second reason is with regard to Thunder Hawk that will end to have an extension of four months. Is there any material financial consequence if you sell that to the owner? That was my second question.
Very good. Just to be clear, there's no award on [SADGIP]. There is a lowest bidder which allows you and enters you into negotiation with Petrobras. They have their budgets. We have our offering. These two need to converge. They need to get the project sanctioned. We are enthusiastic about being the lowest bidder. We are hopeful that we'll be able to unlock the value that will allow them to move to FID. That is that. In terms of gas, what we're seeing on several of the more recent units is increasing gas volume to be handled on our FPSOs. In terms of the prospect of long tail, I think the early data points are that that will continue to increase. Albeit that doesn't introduce really any different technology or capability.
It's just an extension of the evolution of what we see as the FPSOs of today and tomorrow with increasingly bigger gas volumes. If we were to think about the gas market, of course, it's a capability evolution that we'd like to think would lend itself as well into potential more gas-type developments in the future. It all works well for us in the natural evolution of the company. It is part of the FPSO offering today to see increasing gas volumes. Whether it's $500 million, $800 million, or $1.2 billion, or whatever we see, these are just natural evolutions of already deploying existing technology just with greater volumes.
Yeah. With regard to.
On the Thunder Hawk. Yeah. On the Thunder Hawk. Douglas, back to the impact.
Hi, Quirijn. It is the end of the contract. In a way, we have to decommission or give it to the client. It is the latter option that we are going for. When that happens, we will be able to release the decommissioning provision. That would have an impact. If it happens, if it ends up happening this year, that would then have a kind of, I would say, a bit of a small upside on the guidance. It is not in the guidance at the moment.
Okay. Let me come back on this story of Petrobras and the [Cherrypagala Alliance]. I understand that you haven't won the award. Yeah, it's, let me say, the traditional, let me say, opening the envelopes and the lowest bidder is going to win. What I'm interested in here in this case is, what is the, how long will it take in your view before you, let me say, before the contract is signed? How material might be the discount you're going to give to them in the discussion? I also understand that maybe Petrobras is looking for 2029 in order to get it commissioned. Is there any maneuver there for you?
No. I think it's important to think this is not an award. There is now a discussion between what we offer and exactly what budgets that they are looking for and how can these things converge. The timeline of that is not really with us. It's really with Petrobras. We are ready to go with the project. We have a good maturity of the project or projects and based on the tender work that we've been doing. It's really in the hands of Petrobras. We have very little play other than trying to work on our solution to be the most competitive possible.
Okay. Thank you.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Jeremy Kincaid from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please ask your question.
Good morning, everyone. I just have one question. In some of your previous presentations, you've described or illustrated how FPSO prices are rising because they're getting larger and more complex. I think you talked to the $3 billion number or dollar number as potentially where these FPSO prices could get to. Obviously looking at One Guyana, where it's one of your larger ever projects, and you're now indicating that the early sale of that could reduce debt by $1.7 billion. I know $1.7 billion is not the sale price, but I was just wondering if you could help me understand the difference between the $3 billion that you sometimes talk to and the $1.7 billion that net debt might reduce after the early sale.
Douglas? Thank you, Jeremy.
Yeah. I mean, actually, I think latest large FPSOs are even going above the $3 billion mark. I would say on One Guyana, yeah, we repaid some of the debt, but most of the debt comes towards the end. Yeah. There is basically a delta between the formula sales price that we have and the debt. That is going to be the EBITDA that we are roughly able to work. Yeah, we will give you the impacts as and when it happens, we will give you the impacts as we have done with the other purchases in the past.
Okay. Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. We have no further questions. Please continue.
All right. If there's no further questions, we do thank you again for the continued interest in SBM and for joining us this morning. We'll conclude the call here. Have a great day, everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the SBM Offshore Conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for your participation.