Hello, and welcome to the Vopak call. My name is Sophia, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration, your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero, and you will be connected to an operator. I will now hand you over to Fatjona Topciu to begin today's conference. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. My name is Fatjona Topciu, head of IR. Our CFO, Michiel Gilsing, will guide you through to today's announcement that we reached a positive FID together with our partner, AltaGas, on Ridley Island Energy Export Facility. We will refer to the presentation, which you can follow on screen and download from our website. After the presentation, we will have the opportunity for the Q&A. A replay of the webcast will be made available on our website as well. Before we start, I would like to refer to the disclaimer content of the forward-looking statement, which you are familiar with. I would like to remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during the presentation, which involve certain risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, this is applicable to the entire call, including the answers provided to questions during the Q&A session. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Michiel.
Thank you, Fatjona, and a very good morning to all of you joining us in this call. Today, we would like to give you an update on the most recent and largest greenfield growth project that Vopak has ever committed to. We're proud that together with our partner, AltaGas, we have reached a positive final investment decision on Ridley Island Energy Export Facility, a total investment of CAD 1.35 billion. But first, I will give you an overview of Vopak's well-diversified gas portfolio that serves both energy security and energy transition. Growing in gas is one of Vopak's strategic priorities, and we have underpinned this ambition with our network, capabilities, and market opportunities. We have a strong reputation and a long-term proven track record in developing, building, and commissioning gas terminals.
Our network of 25 existing terminals with dedicated infrastructure supports both LNG and LPG movements, with a strong commercial proposition of long-term contracts. With the experience that we have as a company, together with the current position that we have in the partnerships, we are able to capture growth opportunities in both LNG and LPG. We're focusing on the opportunities to grow this organically through our own origination, because we think that this is where most of the value sits. The expectation of LNG demand is that it will continue to grow between now and 2050, with over 40%, because of increased demand for energy and a continued shift from coal to gas as an electricity generation source. While on the LPG side, a similar story based on the same fundamentals of increased global demand for energy.
In India, for example, there is a shift and a switch to cleaner cooking fuels, but also increased demand as a feedstock for petrochemical production. Our current footprint, coupled with our capabilities and supported by market dynamics, makes us focused to continue capturing growth opportunities in this sector. Moving to slide six. Our journey in gas storage began over 40 years ago in Flushing, here in the Netherlands. However, the momentum really picked up in the last 20 years. We also store gas in industrial terminals, such as in Caojing terminal in China, near Shanghai. Over the past 20 years, we have built a global gas terminal portfolio that supports our ambitions. Our total capacity is around 3 million cubic meters of storage. This portfolio plays a crucial role in ensuring both energy security and supply security, especially when LPG is used as feedstock.
This strong portfolio of assets offers a scale and exposure to different markets, while at the same time delivering improved returns. Over the last 12 months, we have committed more than CAD 717 million to gas projects. This compares to a total average proportional capital employed of approximately CAD 1.3 billion for our gas terminals by the end of 2023. Once these projects are commissioned, we expect that proportional capital employed in gas terminals will reach around CAD 2 billion. We are allocating this capital towards a line of business that is underpinned by long-term contracts and has proven to generate positive and improved cash returns. As you can see from the graph, these returns are in line with our target of above 12% operating cash return. The recent growth projects announced will further support and enhance our operating cash flows returns.
Now moving to slide eight. The strategic location of our terminals in Western Canada offers the shortest shipping distances between North America and Asia, enabling the distribution of LPG to the global markets. With a proven track record and a solid reputation, we are extending our footprint in Western Canada with a second LPG terminal. REEF will strengthen Canada's position as a growing global energy exporter, in addition to the existing Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal, RIPET. As we have mentioned in the past, our progress is driven by strategic partnerships, particularly our successful cooperation with AltaGas, and strong community support that we had in this project. In summary, REEF's strategic location, robust capabilities, and strong partnership make us proud to have a world-class export facility in Western Canada. Now, I would like to give you some more details about the project.
REEF will be developed on a 77-hectare site adjacent to AltaGas and Vopak's RIPET terminal. REEF has been granted the key federal and provincial permits to construct storage tanks, a new dedicated jetty, rail, and other infrastructure required to operate a state-of-the-art facility. The project will have the capability to facilitate the export of LPGs, methanol, and other bulk liquids under a long-term contract. The project will be developed and become operational in phases. This approach is the most capital efficient build-out and matches energy export supply with throughput capacity, as well as mitigating impacts on local communities and providing local construction and employment opportunities that will extend over longer time horizons.
phase I will include approximately 55,000 barrels a day of initial LPG export capacity, including propane and butane, and 95,000 cubic meters of LPG storage, a new dedicated multi-product jetty, and extensive rail and logistics infrastructure. As you can see from the graph on the right-hand side, after phase I, there is also room for further expansion on LPG capacity, but also other bulk liquids. Now, moving to slide 10. I would like to give some details on how our disciplined capital allocation policy is creating the headroom for this strategic investment. Our share of investments will be CAD 462 million, an amount that we will fully self-fund by our own balance sheet capabilities. The phasing of CapEx is expected to have a gradual impact on the leverage.
In 2024, we expect that impact to be 0.1x and further increase up to 0.5x in 2026. The capacity of 95,000 cubic meters is expected to be commissioned near the 2026 year-end. This capacity is fully committed and underpinned by a long-term commercial agreement. The site offers opportunity for further expansion in LPG, but also in other bulk liquids. The expected EBITDA contribution from the joint venture, once operational, is in line with our investment guidance. The joint venture expects to generate an EBITDA of between CAD 185 to 215 million. In total, capital invested of CAD 1.35 billion, this leads to a multiple of between 6x to 7x EBITDA, which is in line with our ambition to allocate capital in attractive and accretive gas projects.
Funding this investment by our current balance sheet capabilities allows for an efficient use of the capital structure that we have here at holding level, and this is expected to further support cash flow generation at group level. However, this is not the only gas project that we are working on. We have a well-defined pipeline to grow our base in gas terminals. In LNG, we are progressing well in expanding Gate Terminal with the fourth tank. In Australia, our proposed LNG terminal in Victoria is progressing well in its permitting process. While in South Africa, after the tender award, we are testing the market interest on LNG solutions together with our partner, Transnet. While in India, we are expanding through different projects, our LPG footprint, which supports the local energy transition ambitions. We remain focused and determined to capture further growth opportunities in gas.
To summarize, today's announcement is another proof point on Vopak's strong position to capture growth opportunities utilizing its strong financial position. This investment will deliver attractive operating cash return and will further strengthen our LPG proposition in Western Canada. We create connections through our well-diversified global portfolio by growing our base in LPG. Our well-diversified terminal portfolio is supporting energy security as well as the energy transition. We drive progress as we capture the opportunities of the energy transition. As a result of all of the above, we create and return value to our shareholders, and with that, I would like to hand it over to the operator for any questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question or make a contribution on today's call, please signal by pressing star one. That is star one for your questions today, and we will pause for a brief moment. We now have a question from Jeremy Kincaid, from Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Good morning, all. Congratulations on the announcement. Just first question on phase II. I know you've just completed FID on phase I, but could you just provide a comment on phase II ? Are you actively working on that now, and could you give us an indication of what the potential size of phase II might be if that gets up and running?
Yeah, thanks, Jeremy. Yeah, phase II, we're obviously actively working on it, but we have no sort of firm indication yet. But I think this announcement is gonna help us really to also get more market interest on phase II, because people are always a bit like, "Are you guys really gonna develop this project?" And once you announce it, that you're really gonna develop it, it most of the times triggers more serious interest in expansion. So nothing firm today, but this announcement today is certainly gonna help, let's say, the potential for expansions. And there is product available which needs to be exported, so there is certainly an opportunity, but very hard to tell you any size and any timing on it yet. Well, the good news is the jetty is already there, the land is available, so it will make it easier for any further expansion than it has been up till now.
Sure. And in terms of the customers that will be using this facility, is it just one, or are there multiple customers who might use this facility?
Well, for today, it's only one, so AltaGas rents the capacity, so there's effectively a well, full rent out to AltaGas. In the future, that could be other customers as well. So there is an open, it's an open access terminal, but to be seen how that will develop on, first of all, on the LPG side, which is maybe a bit of a different game than if you compare it to methanol and potentially diesel to be exported from that location. So hopefully it will develop into a multi-customer facility. That's the intention, but with the AltaGas contract and the first phase, we're already happy with the returns we see. So it would be additional ...
Well, it would be leading to additional returns for the project, but the start return of this facility is already attractive for us. So that's why we are quite happy with what we, what we see in phase I, and, well, effectively, it's upward potential for us to develop the further phases.
Sure. And then one final one, just a simple one on the economics. So you're deploying CAD 462 million. I assume AltaGas is contributing an equal amount and then the rest is bank debt to get you up to the CAD 1.35 billion capital cost. Is that right?
No, so the CAD 1.35, if you work it back to CADos, then it will be CAD 924. So we take CAD 462 of it, AltaGas takes CAD 462 of that as well, so the project will be fully equity funded effectively. But then we will structure it in such a manner that we will, we will effectively use our balance sheet for it. So we will use debt capacity at the holding level. Well, there's two reasons why we do it. One is, well, first of all, to make the project work, from an AltaGas point of view, they wanted to use their own balance sheet, so effectively, we looked at that opportunity as well. We, first of all, we have the headroom to do it, but secondly, it's also tax beneficial for us to do it.
So to structure it in such a manner, it will mean that we can lend more of the profits effectively in the Netherlands than in Canada. And we have quite some tax losses in the Netherlands, so we have close to CAD 500 million tax losses, which we need to, but we also want to consume, and this project is gonna help us to consume quite a bit of those tax losses. So that's, that's also the reason for us, that we were ultimately, let's say, also fine with the structure, to structure it in such a manner, because we need quite a bit of these projects to basically consume the tax losses in the Netherlands, which then would also create value, of course.
Sure. Okay, thank you very much. Those are my questions.
Thanks, Jeremy.
Thank you. As a reminder, that is star one for your questions today. We will pause for a brief moment. We take our next question now, which comes from Thijs Berkelder from ABN AMRO. Please go ahead.
Hey, Thijs, good morning.
Good morning. Congratulations on this deal. First question is on, is it logical to assume that you will seek leverage in the terminal or in the JV at a certain point post-delivery? And are you normally expecting the first large cash back already end 2027, or is it more logical to assume that cash will stay in the JV to prepare for phase II, phase III, whatever?
On your first question, Thijs, so what we did is we looked at the bankability of the project, so there is no intention between the joint venture partners to refinance it post-delivery, so that is not the intention. But we, what we could do is we could finance it ourselves, but that also mean that you have to then reduce your stake a bit, which is not our preferred option. So it can be done. So if it needs to be done, the project would be bankable from our point of view. So we could push debt into a lower level, so effectively, relaxing the holding. But that's not the intention.
So for us, it's a backup scenario. If we need it, we can do it, but it would not be preferred option because we would like to stay a 50% owner of this facility, given also that there is some expansion opportunities. And on the second question, yes, so immediately in 2027, upstreaming of cash will start. So it's, it's a full, distribution model, 100% upstreaming of, dividends, from year one. So and that's, that's the concept. So, well, by the end of 2027, at least, well, the, the project will, transfer dividends to the, to the shareholders.
Okay, thanks.
You're welcome.
Thank you. And up next, we have Andre Mulder from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. A few questions. First, on the investment of the CAD 135, it said, CAD 200 will be financed in 2024. Can you give a path of how that will develop towards the CAD 135 over 2025, 2026? In terms of contracts, what's the length of the current contract with AltaGas? I came across this 60% tolling. I do not know what that means. Can you explain about that? And does it mean that you will start to record this EBITDA contribution of, let's say, CAD 185 to 215 on a JV basis, as of 2027? Is that the case? Thanks.
Yeah. So on your first question, yeah, so the phasing of CapEx, indeed, the first CAD 200 million goes out in 2024. And let me check, do we have the details for 2025?
No.
No, there's no details given for 2025. I wouldn't know by top of my head, but you can expect a bit of a gradual phasing of this. I don't have the numbers here, Andre, but it would be 115, so it's probably gonna be... Well, if I look at the leverage impact, it should be around CAD 500 million in the year thereafter, and another CAD 600 million in 2026. That's what you may expect. But we can check it if you really need to have the details.
No, that's okay.
Yeah? Yeah, so the agreement, we can't disclose the, the commercial agreement, but I can assure you it's, it's more than 10 years. Let's put it that way. So it's a long-term agreement. And indeed, let's say the joint venture will record CAD 185 to 215 million, and that's depending on the throughput level. So there is a minimum throughput guarantee for this facility, which effectively leads to a minimum EBITDA. So that is to be recorded in 2027. So from day one, it will just start. And then there is some throughput additional throughput income if the facility really runs at a higher throughput than the minimum throughput. So that's provides the extra EBITDA over and above the CAD 185 million. So that's really throughput related.
So the CAD 185 million should be the minimum one, and the CAD 215 million is if the facility runs at a very good throughput, and this obviously is a throughput facility because it's facilitating exports from Canada to Asia. So it comes in by rail. It's almost. Yeah, you can almost consider it a pipeline, maybe, in a different way, bringing the gas from Canada via rail into Prince Rupert and then export it straight away to the Asian market. So there will be a continuous flow. On the tolling, we can-
We will get back to you.
On the tolling, we will get back to you, Andre. Is that okay?
Yep, yep, that's okay. And on the contract that you have with AltaGas, that already covers, let's say, 100% of this 995K or?
Yeah, yeah. So it's fully rented out.
Okay. And, if it's fully rented out, where do you see the possibilities for other clients to join, if it's already fully rented out for 10 years?
Well, minimum 10 years, let's put it that way. Well, it can be rented out if we build additional capacity. Yeah, so there is still an opportunity to build additional gas capacity, so that could be done. So not in phase I, because that's fully rented out. And there's other products which could be handled as well, so such as methanol or diesel. These kind of products are also available in the market. They need to find an export location... And as I just said, by announcing this project, people know that this project is gonna happen, and that will definitely trigger interest for other products. So, this is the only location in the west of Canada, which where you can export from.
So while we expect certainly some interest to store either more gas or different products, and then the question is, is that, can we make that economically feasible? Because it's quite an expensive facility, if you look at the size of the capacity. But ultimately you need to look at the throughput, because it's a throughput facility. It's still quite expensive, so can we, can we expand the next phases in an economical manner that it also works for customers? And that's... Yeah, that will be, that will be a discussion in the coming periods. And it may, it may land positively, it may also not land positively. That's too early to tell. But obviously, well, the business case needs to work for both parties, either for us or for the customers. To be seen, I would say. There is an opportunity to expand.
Okay, if you look at phase II compared to phase I, what's the potential of storage capacity that you could put in there?
Well, you could at least build. We haven't done the sort of mapping, but you could certainly build quite some additional LPG capacity, given the size. And then we still have quite a large area, which is called the bulk liquid storage area, that it's that orange part on the picture. You could also ultimately use that. If you need to use it for LPG, you could do it, but that's more like allocated now for other products like methanol and diesel. But there's quite some flexibility, because if you look at the overview, the blue part is where phase I is, and the rest of the land is still available, so that is quite sizable.
So expanding into LPG shouldn't be a problem, and expanding into other products should not be a problem either, unless there is so much demand. But it's not that we expect that this is gonna be quickly expanded. So it's, let's first build phase I. We will certainly stay in contact with the market on other phases, but it's not gonna be a rapid expansion model. That's not what we expect. But there are opportunities, certainly.
Yeah. If you look at the split of the CAD 135, and does it mean that the infra part, the jetty part, is CAD 875 and the tankage is CAD 475?
No, we don't give those details, but you can assume that the jetty is quite an expensive component here to mobilize all the construction company, because the tanks will be constructed offsite, so they will be shipped in, but the rest is, the rest is, well, has to be done in quite a remote area. So this jetty, jetty part is very expensive. And, well, the benefit, once the jetty is there, obviously we can use it for the expansions. We don't need to put another jetty in place. That's gonna help us quite a bit to hopefully be competitive, well, be economical for customers to provide terminal services.
Any guess of what that split is between the jetty and the infrastructure and the real tankage?
W e don't give those details, Andre. We know what the split is, of course, but-
Yeah, of course.
Yeah.
Okay, thanks.
You're welcome.
Thank you. And our next question comes from Quirijn Mulder of ING. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, everyone. So after five years deliberation, you have now decided to make an FID, which is interesting in my view. Can you hear me?
Yeah, loud and clear.
Okay. Okay, perfect. And it looks to me that it... Let me say that you have— Yeah, normally, if you make such a greenfield decision, then in general, the first phase, the returns are lower than average for the second. But if I hear your answering, Andre's story, it looks like that you're not certain about the commercial viability of the second phase, which is a little bit strange to me. So maybe you can explain what's the problem, and say, if AltaGas is, AltaGas contract is not commercial compared to third parties, so what is then the value of that second phase? And-
Well, I think... Yeah, no, shall I answer this straight away, Quirijn, or?
Yeah, yeah, of course.
Yeah, it took indeed quite a few years, I think even longer than 5 years. But yeah, the contract with AltaGas is commercial for us, so it brings the returns we like to see for the project. So if in the worst case, there wouldn't be any expansion, we would still be happy with this investment and still be happy with the returns. So that's first. Secondly, yeah, I don't wanna be too optimistic on, well, this facility is gonna expand phase II and phase III within a very short timeframe, because we really need to find out, let's say, what the appetite is of customers at a certain price. Because the reason is, the construction costs in this area are quite high.
So to make it economically work for customers, well, for AltaGas it works because it's a very high throughput model, but for other customers, it might not be as easy to really push that high throughput through a facility which is quite expensive. So that's why I'm still a bit cautious, to be honest. There is opportunities, there's products in the market, there's land available, we have the jetty constructed.
But I first would like to see, let's say, really solid proposals with customers on, okay, at this price, we can deliver, and at this price, it's still attractive for you to export a product out of this location, because it's not a very cheap location. So that's where my caution sits. I hope that that gives you a bit more color, but I'm happy with the first phase I contract, and if the facility ends as a phase I facility only, yeah, then there is no airport, but it's still a very good deal.
So let me say, in fact, you say that the cost price of the facility in the remote area is mostly offsetting, let me say, your benefit from the shorter distance compared to Middle East of 18 days, as I saw, and 25 days from the Gulf.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So this is a supply chain where you need to calculate the ultimate cost, and that AltaGas has done, of course, to see whether they are competitive with the cheap gas from Canada, rail it in, exported via very expensive export terminal then into Asia, that that still works from them, for them. And I think, yeah, that's, that's right, because, well, in terms of cost per cubic meter, if you look at this facility, it's the most expensive terminal we will have ever built, so that's quite clear as well.
Yeah... Okay. And then let me say, if your alternatives are there, are you also looking at complete— because it's com, it's part of growth, eh? If you look at your strategy.
Yeah. Yeah.
Look at new, new energies.
No, no, no, it's part of growth, so indeed. So this will bring us quite close to the CAD 1 billion, because we had CAD 441 million already committed, so another CAD 462 million, that brings us to CAD 900 million and a bit. So yeah, so close to the CAD 1 billion. So I'm pretty confident that, let's say, the CAD 1 billion will be reached, and then obviously for us, it will be beginning of next year, I think, if we have another capital markets day, then we, we will look at this and probably give more guidance to the market on what the CAD 1 billion is gonna be going forward. But indeed, this is part of growth. This is not part of new energy.
No, I understand. Then it's little bit confusing for me that you mentioned diesel. Given the fact that... Yeah, maybe you can elaborate, say something about that.
Yeah, there is, there are some products in the market, like methanol and diesel, which need to find markets. So I wouldn't mind just to if we could build a few diesel tanks here, because it is an export opportunity. Yeah, then it's still predominantly a gas terminal with some oil storage. So you have that more often in our... It's not like every terminal is exactly has a footprint in either gas, in oil or chemical. Sometimes it's a bit of a combination. So yeah, then this would be a majority gas terminal with maybe a few diesel tanks, but I would not forgo on the opportunity if it's attractive.
Okay. Thank you.
You're welcome.
Thank you. And that concludes today's call, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.