Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the HT&E 2022 half year results conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, to Ciaran Davis, CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today. I'm joined by our CFO, Andrew Nye. This morning we will take you through our financial highlights, our investor proposition, the group financial and operational performance before closing with the outlook and Q&A. It's been a busy and exciting six months with the business delivering a very strong financial result for the half. Given the scale, speed, and success of the integration program underway, these results are particularly pleasing. Revenue for the half was up 58% to AUD 172 million. EBITDA is up 60% to AUD 49 million. EBIT up to AUD 38 million, and NPAT up 61% to AUD 26 million. EPS grew 7.9 cents per share, and consistent with this nature of our business, really strong cash generated was up 71% to AUD 34 million.
As a result, the board has declared a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.05 per share. When we acquired our regional business, we were confident HT&E would continue to drive shareholder returns in 2022 and beyond. After 6 months of ownership, this view has strengthened for a number of reasons. Firstly, we are leaders in a very strong, robust, innovative commercial radio and audio market that continues to play a critical and central role in the lives of our audiences and advertisers. Listenership is at an all-time high, reaching nearly 12 million weekly. We're still the number one ratings network and have been for 21 surveys in a row, despite having to sell 4KQ during the year, and continue to produce market-leading performances in key markets like Sydney and Melbourne. Group radio revenues are up 7% with EBITDA up 11%.
Despite pressure on people and OpEx costs, which we are actively managing, we are forecasting to keep these costs to circa 5% growth for the year, which is very close to the guidance we provided in February. Secondly, I'm really pleased to say that our regional integration program is ahead of schedule and gaining further momentum and margin expansion. Andrew will take you through the details in a moment, but revenues in regional markets are up 11% with material cut-through to earnings up 21%. Thanks to the efforts of everyone in the business, key milestones in our integration program have been achieved, and we are starting to see revenue synergies of close to AUD 3 million coming through, and are confident we will hit the AUD 6 million-AUD 8 million forecast for 2022.
Thirdly, we are in a privileged position where our core radio business is being enhanced by complementary new digital audio offerings, expanding our audiences and commercial opportunities. Digital audio is our future with radio at its core, and we are successfully executing our strategy to build an audience and commercial bridge between linear and digital audio. iHeartRadio is our exclusive global platform technology, where we have complete local control, giving us the best of both worlds. We are providing listeners and clients with more targeted and personalized content and ads, and are seeing strong growth with digital billings up 14%. We are the leading podcast publisher, are successfully implementing a broadcast to podcast strategy, and in April, we launched CADA, a youth-focused digital entertainment brand, which has grown a strong audience base already and is generating a lot of interest with clients.
For our shareholders, our leverage is now below 1x as forecast. We continue to generate really strong cash of between AUD 35 million-AUD 45 million in a normal year. We have declared an interim dividend, and today we are reinstating our buyback to support our view that our stock is undervalued. We have an opportunity to further realize value through our 25% shareholding in Soprano, which is non-core and one we would look to divest at the right price. Finally, as a business, our commitment to ESG prioritizes the creation of a more sustainable future for our team, our local communities, and the planet. We've made exceptional progress integrating our regional business, and I'd like to thank all of our staff for their commitment and professionalism over the past 6 months. There is genuine excitement and belief in what we are creating.
Our new colleagues are fantastic to work with, great people who deliver something truly unique in media in Australia, a genuinely local product that is a key differentiator in the communities we serve. As you can see from the timeline, we sold 4KQ in July for AUD 12 million, just under 12x EBIT multiple, and with other key milestones being the integration of our agency sales team announced on August the first. This will bring together our national, metro, regional, and digital salespeople into one team, and we're looking forward to seeing the benefits of such a structure. One of the critical priorities we had when we took on this business was to ensure it continued to perform as well as it had been prior to being acquired.
In addition to strong revenue and EBITDA growth, we've had some market-leading rating results in key markets like Gold Coast, Mackay, Cairns, Bundaberg, Ipswich, Darwin, Launceston, Gympie, Ballarat. It's early days, but good progress has been made, and as the chart on the bottom right indicates, the benefits of ownership under ARN are already starting to come through. Andrew.
Thanks, Ciaran. Good morning, everyone. We've maintained the same format for our financial results with the usual reconciliations to assist in understanding of exceptional items and lease accounting included in the appendices. The results include a full six months of earnings for ARN Regional and where appropriate, pro forma comparative financial information has been provided.
On this slide, we show the statutory result for the period, where group revenues were up over AUD 63 million or 8% on a pro forma basis, owing to a solid six months for ARN Regional. Costs were up 12% on a pro forma basis, impacted by higher variable costs on improved revenues, incremental investment in CADA and podcasting, and the timing of marketing investment compared to 2021. Resulting underlying EBITDA for the group grew AUD 18.1 million, up 1% on a pro forma basis. An uplift prior to disposing of our residual investment in Lux Group and a part impairment associated with the sale of 4KQ are included as exceptional items. Underlying NPAT attributable to shareholders grew AUD 10.1 million, and earnings per share increased 51% in the period.
Looking at the pro forma results for the ARN Group, incorporating both our metro and regional businesses for the six months. Radio revenues were up 7% and digital up 6%. Digital billings to customers grew over 40% with cut-through to revenue impacted by third-party content costs as we scale the business. Total costs grew 10% on a pro forma basis, impacted by higher cost of sales in line with revenue growth and increased people and operating costs reflecting our investment in CADA, the part-year impact of new digital and commercial roles, and the weighting of marketing investment relative to 2021. With tight cost control measures in place to limit current inflationary pressures, we expect full-year people and operating cost growth of 5% excluding digital investments. Presented here are the pro forma results for both the metro and regional radio operations.
Total radio revenues were up 7% in the period, with metro up 5% and regional up 11%. The metro results demonstrate the level of focus our teams have maintained over the core radio metro radio operations while managing a complex integration program that is progressing to plan. ARN Regional had a brilliant first six months under ARN ownership, delivering total revenues of AUD 54.2 million, up 10% on already strong comparatives. Looking deeper into the regional numbers, local direct revenues, which make up 70% of the business, were up 10% year-on-year. Most stations across the regional network grew in the period, a clear demonstration of the quality of the people, content, and commercial strategy already in place, underpinned by the momentum created through the integration.
For 2022, we set a revenue synergy target of between AUD 6-8 million for the year. To date, we've generated over AUD 2.7 million of incremental revenues. With our commercial agency structure now set, we are increasingly confident of hitting the target. Cost management remains a constant focus, and while there is a level of pressure owing to current macroeconomic factors, total costs for the period grew 6%, delivering 11% EBITDA growth and a one percentage point improvement in the total radio margin to 34%. Digital audio billings to clients grew 41% on a pro forma basis, owing to strong podcasting advertising growth in the second quarter after a slow January and February.
The flow through to revenues, up 6% in the period, was impacted by a higher percentage of third-party inventory compared to owned inventory as we continue to scale the business. We've made a number of adjustments to our product offering and supporting ad tech that will see improved utilization of ARN-owned inventory going forward and a better conversion to revenue. We are pleased with the progress to date in the development of CADA as a new user platform and national brand, and reiterate the business case to deliver positive digital earnings contribution within three years. Total revenues for Cody Outdoor grew 5% on improving market conditions in Hong Kong, with roadside billboard revenues up 7%. Following the completion of Hong Kong Tramways contract in May, Cody Outdoor is actively investigating tender opportunities for new contracts as they arise. Importantly, on current revenue levels, the business remains cash flow positive.
Briefly on Soprano, a local software business in which HT&E holds a 25% interest. Pro forma revenues grew 28% to AUD 133 million, and EBITDA increased 5% to over AUD 30 million. The business continues to invest in R&D and portfolio diversification to drive customer acquisition and retention. The medium to long-term fundamentals of the CPaaS sector remain robust, and for a well-capitalized B2B business such as Soprano, current sector valuations present potential acquisition opportunities. We remain committed to selling our investment in Soprano and retained Macquarie Capital for this purpose. The balance sheet illustrates the post-acquisition capital structure of the group and highlights very manageable debt levels of AUD 78.3 million and gearing under 1x EBITDA on an LTM basis. Good tenor and access to undrawn limits remain on the group financing facility.
The majority of variances compared to December 2021 are due to the acquisition of ARN Regional, with a few call-outs for the remaining movements. 4KQ assets were classified as held for sale prior to disposal in July. Remaining liabilities on the ATO branch matter totaled over AUD 35 million, were settled in the period, and we've recorded a deferred tax liability on regional radio licenses acquired in line with accounting standards. Operating cash flows totaled AUD 34.4 million, up 71%, reflecting a full six-month contribution from ARN Regional. The group remains highly cash generative, with the ability to generate cash flows before dividends of between AUD 35-45 million in a normal year after incorporating annual CapEx of around AUD 8-10 million.
Proceeds of AUD 21 million relating to the disposals of 4KQ and Lux Group received in July will further improve leverage in the second half. Before I pass back to Ciaran, today we've announced a fully franked dividend of AUD 0.05 per share, along with the reinstatement of our on-market buyback to commence following the results. While the provision of franked dividends remains the preferred means of capital management, with our share price trading back over 35% in the year, we strongly believe that HT&E remains undervalued, and at the current share price, it is appropriate to reinstate the buyback. Ciaran.
Thanks, Andrew. Some of you may have read analyst reports suggesting the death of radio, which was a surprise to us as we operate day in, day out in a sector that remains as relevant as ever, while continuing to successfully evolve, grow, and embrace the future competing against digital global players. We operate in an exceptionally strong Australian commercial radio market that engages audiences and delivers tangible results for advertisers. Commercial radio listenership reached an all-time high this year, nearly 12 million a week. It's grown every year for the past 10 years. On average, people are listening to over 15 hours of radio a week, and yes, younger audiences may not be listening as long as their parents, but the level of consumption is still very healthy across all ages.
Radio and podcast are the dominant form of audio, accounting for nearly 70% of all listening on audio platforms. Despite all the noise we hear about streaming giants, that's 4.5 times more than music streaming. Commercial radio accounts for 75% of all listening on audio platforms that have advertising, which as we know, is becoming more targeted and personalized, just like our global competitors. It's also worth pointing out our industry body, Commercial Radio Australia, and what it is doing. It's a rare example of a collegiate approach amongst industry players with the goal of advancing our industry for the good of all. There are some exciting developments underway that can only serve to make radio and audio more relevant and easier to buy and trade with. ARN is leading the way in audio content, distribution, and innovation.
Our on-air talent continue to deliver rating success. We've been the number 1 metropolitan FM network for 3 years, and are backing that up with some very strong results in regional markets. ARN continues to lead in key markets like Sydney and Melbourne, and we're the number 1 station in Adelaide. In Melbourne, Gold 104.3 is number 1, with The Christian O'Connell Show taking out the number 1 breakfast position for 17 consecutive surveys. In Sydney, ARN has maintained its dominance in breakfast with KIIS 106.5, Kyle and Jackie O, and WSFM's Jonesy and Amanda finishing number 1 and number 2 spots respectively. We are the leading podcast publisher for 27 consecutive rankers, and have learned a considerable amount about podcast consumption and monetization.
This will see changes to our podcast offering in the coming months that are more profitable and sustainable in key categories. We deliver Australia's most compelling audio offering with strong integration across all platforms, backed by our market-leading commercial products that are now being rolled out across our regional network. Our leadership and local positioning is very relevant. 58 stations across all territories, reaching over 7 million a week, over 1,300 highly skilled and talented team members with the best on and off-air talent in the country. Live and local content, local news, weather, travel, sports are unique to us. As we saw during the most recent floods in Queensland and New South Wales, provide a vital and life-saving services during emergencies, valued by our listeners and providing an incredible sense of engagement for our advertising partners.
We are investing AUD 7 million-AUD 9 million this year expanding our digital audio network, which is delivering complementary commercial growth opportunities. Although we view the PwC estimates shown on slide 17 as conservative, they do point to a very resilient and significant radio market that is continuing to grow, reaching over AUD 1.2 billion. PwC are forecasting the live streaming and podcasting audio markets to be worth over AUD 300 million by 2026, with a 40% CAGR. Again, it's worth pointing out that these views are underestimated in our view, particularly podcasting. Notwithstanding that, we are investing in content creation, digital data targeting capabilities, and increased sales capability to build a commercial bridge between our linear and digital audiences. Our future is digital with radio broadcasting at its core, distributed increasingly in digital environments such as DAB+, mobile, desktop, and smart speakers.
iHeart is our long-term strategic partner that gives us exclusive access to global technology innovation without significant investment, but with complete local control and monetization. Essential to our digital audio growth strategy, we are successfully investing to grow audiences and reach them on all platforms. In June, we had just under 12 million total listening hours to radio and music streaming. Our streaming station catalog is the most extensive in the country, and further expanded after the inclusion of our regional stations. In podcasting, we had 23 million podcast downloads in June, a 43% year-on-year growth. These figures had a positive impact on our commercial delivery, with a 40% increase in digital billings for the half. In June, across streaming and podcasting, we delivered advertisements to 8 million unique users.
Although our digital audience reach is much greater than this was the biggest digital audio month we've had to date. We are learning a lot about the most efficient strategy to accelerate this growth, and to do so with greater profitability in H2 and into 2023. Finally, CADA, our new multi-platform youth brand, which is only 4 months old, but already establishing itself as Australia's home of Hip Hop and R&B. Targeting 18- to 29-year-olds, this multi-channel approach is aiming to provide us access to revenues beyond traditional media budgets by creating content for young adults by young adults and distributed across broadcast, podcast, digital, video, and social. Audiences have grown from 367,000 pre-launch to 3.3 million weekly connections in June. We've had over 1.2 million views of exclusive video content on CADA's YouTube channel.
CADA is the number one DAB station for 18-24s in Sydney, and our podcast offering is gaining in popularity. Pleasingly, new brands to ARN, like Red Bull and Netflix, have already signed up, and while at 30 days, we are encouraged by the progress and the commercial discussions we are having. Moving now to the trading update. At ARN, total radio revenues for Q3 are pacing 6%-8% up on same time last year following a soft July advertising market. Growth is in both metro and regional markets and weighted more towards metro. Limited visibility into Q4 is in line with radio industry forecasting over many years. However, briefing activity remains solid. The cost-effective nature of radio during inflationary times will deliver more favorable CPMs compared to other mediums, and radio's ease of trading and ability to transact at much shorter lead times will be advantageous in H2.
Full-year people and operating cost growth is limited to 5%. Digital audio investment will be AUD 1 million less than previously guided, now in the AUD 7 million-AUD 8 million range. HT&E is a high cash-generating business with a strong balance sheet. Leverage is less than 1x EBITDA and will be further strengthened through recent asset disposals. At Cody Outdoor, the improving market conditions experienced in the first half have continued into Q3, with adjusted revenues for the quarter pacing 15% up on same time last year. The business is expected to be cash flow positive for the year subject to market conditions holding. Thank you, and we'll now open up for questions.
Thank you, sir. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Entcho Raykovski from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, Ciaran. Hi, Andrew. I've got a few questions, hopefully pretty straightforward. Firstly, are you able to talk to what you are seeing in the market and what's driven the week of July? Whether it's the Olympics comp just driving the market lower overall, and then how are you seeing any recovery in August and September?
Hi, Entcho. The Olympics would have nothing to do with us, to be honest, and never have. I think what we saw was, you know, there was. You know, June was a very good month, so the end of financial year saw a lot of category spending. The election probably had a little bit of impact as well in terms of post the election. There was a bit of a breather. We do tend to find that when we have a very strong June, that July pulls back a bit. I think that coupled with the noise we were seeing in those few weeks around inflation, interest rates, and all the other macro events probably had an impact.
It was definitely only short term because we're seeing strong growth into August and September.
Okay. Got it. Then on revenue synergies from the Grant Broadcasters transaction, just for clarity, have you delivered AUD 2.7 million in the first half, or is that something which has been identified to date?
No, it's been delivered, and we're confident of delivering that 6-8 for the year.
Okay. Got it. Just when it comes to that 6%-8% for the year, obviously again, looking at your outlook comments, are you concerned that the metro growth is higher than regional into the second half? Because I would've thought obviously with the synergies, that should be driving higher regional growth. Is there anything specific which is driving a better metro market?
Yeah. No, the revenue synergies are both across both metro and regional, Entcho. You know, we're obviously talking to clients who haven't advertised regionally, but also we're talking to clients regionally who haven't advertised metro-wide. There's growth across both in that revenue synergy number.
Entcho, on the metro number, Q3 2021, there was a lockdown in metro, so the comparatives were softer compared to regional markets which were not as affected.
Okay. Great. Very clear. Just on the digital side, how do you see a more normal conversion of billings through to revenue? I mean, obviously you've identified very strong billings growth, but not much of that flowing through to revenue growth. You've said you expect that to rectify, but do you expect that to improve in the second half, or is it longer dated?
It will be longer dated. Look, we do see sort of year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of sort of 15%-20%, if that assists.
Yeah. That's great. If we take that into account, presumably your expectations for billings for the full year to translate to revenue in the high tens of millions AUD, obviously no longer the case, but we can sort of work out the 15%-20% growth and what that implies.
Yeah.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Choi from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Hey, Ciaran. Hey, Andrew. I just had a few as well, if that's all right. The first one, I just wanted to check, if we're growing. I know you're not saying metro radio revenues in isolation are growing at sort of 6%-8%. I know that increases of regional. If I sort of applied that 6%-8% to Metro, it probably implies that we're still around 10% below like pre-COVID 2019 levels. Therefore, you'd probably expect that percentage growth rate to step down in the fourth quarter of this calendar year. That's the first one.
Maybe the best way to answer that is similar to the response to Entcho. Q3 2021 in Metro markets was lower. Q4 2021 was a better period for radio. Yeah, I think you're on it.
Nice one. Thanks, Andrew. Second one, just a bit of minutiae, but can you just clarify what the 4KQ and Lux revenue and EBITDA contributions to come out in the second half will be?
The 4KQ EBITDA contribution, the second half is AUD 1 million.
Gotcha.
And Lux-
And then just-
Lux had no contribution. Lux was an investment.
Nice. Nice one. Then just the last one, just more high level. I guess people are sort of out and about now and we're tracking 6%-8% up on PC, but still kind of 10% below pre-COVID. Which as you said, implies CPMs at a big discount, given other mediums have sort of been increasing their yields. Just interested in your thoughts around what's driving that bigger CPM differential versus history.
I wouldn't agree with the CPM comment. Eric, I think, you know, from a trading perspective, our CPM, we're very pleased with the growth that we've seen there. You know, as we've talked about before, the agency market has recovered exceptionally well and is close to 2019 levels. We're seeing increased confidence in the SME market come through. It still is not back to 2019 levels, but you know, as people are out and about more, as festivals, events, you know, all that key category for radio advertising comes back stronger, it will obviously have an impact, positive impact on total radio revenue. This is not a CPM game, this is an advertiser client category game.
Thanks, Ciaran.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you would need to press star one one on your touchtone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Han from Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Ciaran. I'm not sure which analysts were declaring the death of radio, it certainly wasn't us. I do have a question on the industry, and that is, do you think the industry's dependence on breakfast and drive time slots is getting perhaps a little too high?
No, I don't. It wasn't you, Brian, who predicted the death of radio. I think it's a very important slot, both drive and breakfast, and that's why all radio operators put a lot of effort into it. You know, the commercialization of radio is a reach and frequency game. It's not just about buying spots in breakfast or drive. It's about buying run of station. Our listenership across mornings, afternoons are still very healthy. It obviously is peak time, breakfast and drive. I think what's really important to note as well is that you know, the slack times for radio listening, like evening time, weekend, that's actually when people are listening to podcasts.
When we talk about the complementary nature of digital audio and podcasting, it actually is in real listening terms. People are listening to the radio at the traditional times they have done, and podcasting is later on in the evening and weekends. In terms of too much emphasis on breakfast and drive, no. Talent-wise, we do tend to because people are doing other things in the morning time or in the afternoon, they're at work or doing other things. It doesn't tend to be as important to have high personality profiles on during that time.
Ciaran, just while you're on podcasting, why do you think PwC's forecast of that podcast market in 2026 is conservative? Even if it is conservative, is it possible that most of that additional podcast growth will be enjoyed by the overseas players?
In terms of the conservative nature, it's more built around the fact of what we see and what we estimate is in the market already from a podcasting valuation. We think the acceleration to AUD 150 million-AUD 160 million will be faster than the timeline that they've indicated. That's a personal and probably a view that we have just from what we see in the market at the moment. Do I think that it will be taken on by the larger players? Obviously, a portion of it will. I think what radio in Australia is doing very successfully is actually leaning in very quickly into the podcast market. We're all developing strategies to monetize it.
We, as an industry in Commercial Radio Australia, developed the podcast ranker. We all sign up to it to deliver our download numbers so that the commercial market has visibility on the number of downloads that it has, the engagement that it has, the usage and how it's growing. We're all investing in our ability to drive personalized ads. We're all investing in our ability to drive programmatic trading platforms. I'd like to think that there's more advancements in that as an industry coming down the road. I also think as well that we're, you know, from our perspective at ARN, we've worked really hard on what we call our broadcast to podcast strategy. We've identified across Australia new talent in the audio market that is working very well on radio and on podcasting.
You know, that strategy is yielding good commercial results because we're able to cross-promote both content and advertising campaigns in both. You know, from the perspective of global giants taking podcasting revenue, the radio industry in Australia is probably the most advanced, I think, in the world that I've seen in terms of embracing it and building new commercial opportunities as a result of it.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Cameron Halkett from Wilsons Advisory. Please go ahead.
Thanks, operator. Morning, Ciaran, Andrew. I hope you're both well. First one just around capital management. Dividend of AUD 0.05 per share, is it something we can expect going forward in the second half, given steady state conditions? How are you gonna, I suppose, direct us to think about, you know, the mix of divs, debt repayment and now buyback as well?
Hi Cameron. How are you? I think in terms of dividend payments, the board remains very committed to the payout ratio that we have of 68%. You know, obviously it's subject to market conditions, but you know, I think that form of capital management is something that the board is very committed to. It is the most efficient form of capital management that we have. We do look at the share price. We see how undervalued it is. We think a buyback with the benefit of the additional funds we've got in through Luxury Escapes and through 4KQ, that now is the right time to look at it. In terms of the quantum, you know, not quite sure.
I think if you look at the volumes that we have in our stock, it's quite tight. There isn't much volume on a daily basis, but we will monitor it daily and see what we can do.
Yeah. Understood. Just on Soprano, if I can. First just around the organic expansion into the U.S. market. Do you think that increases the likelihood of a sale of your stake, just given that opens the door to some financial sponsors in that market?
I think what you know is interesting in Soprano is the continued improving performance of the business. We've seen you know that the fiscal management that Soprano has it's focused on EBITDA growth, P&L. Good investment means that it is continuing to grow from a profitability perspective, which is not necessarily a sign in the rest of the market. You know from our perspective you know with Non-Core we've obviously been talking about exiting for a while. We have a price and I think with the valuations that are in the market at the moment you know we're gonna hold to the valuation that we would like to achieve on it. We're not in a rush to get out. The business still performs well.
It's got a very good three-year plan that it's implementing. Obviously we're pleased that maybe the transaction didn't happen last year. From our perspective, the business is going well and not just expanding in the U.S. market. It's looking to expand in other international markets as well, still doing well in Australia.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ray David from Schroders. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Just a question on the cost guidance. You got 5% pro forma cost guidance for the group. Could you just help me understand cost growth outlook for the digital business? Sort of denote that costs have sort of doubled. What's sort of the outlook for the second half? And broadly, how should we think about that cost base on a longer term basis? How much of it is fixed versus variable that's linked to the billings? Thanks.
Hello?
Yes. I see you're back on, Mr. Davis.
Sorry about that. I don't know what happened there.
No problem. Mr. David, could you repeat your question please?
Yeah, sure. Just on the cost guidance, you've come out with sort of 5% pro forma cost guidance for the full year. Could you just help me understand the cost guidance for the digital audio business? During the first half costs doubled. Is that cost base now largely fixed, or is there a variable element within that cost base? What should we expect for the second half for digital costs? Thank you.
There's a slight variable element, but most of that at the moment is fixed given the launch cost associated with CADA, our new youth platform. The best way to look at it is a similar cost profile from H1 to H2.
Okay. I think you sort of said on a previous question that the billings outlook is expected to be up 15%-20% for digital. Did I hear that correctly, or was that another division?
The revenue outlook for digital, up 15%-20%.
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay, great. Just on Soprano, I know you've talked about valuations have compressed, which has provided some acquisition opportunities. Could you just provide a bit more color as to how far valuations have fallen, and are they EBITDA or revenue multiples that you're talking to? Thank you.
I'll guide you to sort of the market in terms of valuations of VPaaS businesses around the world. You know, my point being that as a 20+ year shareholder of Soprano, we have a very firm view on the valuation we expect. We're not in any rush if the market is not prepared to meet that. I think there is interest in the business because it is such a very good business that continues to perform and make profit. In terms of valuations, I think, you know, I'll guide you to markets around the world.
Okay. For acquisitions, would you be expected to contribute to any capital required, or do you think Soprano can fund some of these acquisitions internally?
Soprano has a very healthy balance with strong cash available to it and debt facilities. We won't be providing capital into it.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Choi from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
I just had a follow-up on the cost as well, if that's all right. Apologies if I missed this, Ciaran, but when you guys are guiding to 5% full year increase in operating costs, have you provided us the pro forma FY 21 comp to grow that off?
We provided that in the February numbers, which will be the combination of the metro and the regional business. I'm happy to talk you through that, later in the day, if that would help.
Awesome. Sorry, I missed that. Just on cost of sales, it sort of, COGS as a percentage of sales kinda lifted to 23% this half versus, I guess, historically around 17%. Is that the sort of level we'd expect to go forward?
No, the cost of sales has slightly increased, but it shouldn't be at that kind of level going forward.
Thanks, guys.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Campbell from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, Ciaran. Good day, Andrew. Just a couple from me, 'cause most of the good questions have already been asked. Could you maybe give a few little examples around how you're extracting the revenue synergies between Grant and ARN, and also whether you've got any updated view on where you think revenue synergies can go? Something like, maybe that one. I've just got another question after that.
Hi, John. Yeah. In terms of extracting the synergies, it's obviously we're now talking to clients with an expanded offering. If you give an example in Queensland where we would have talked to clients who are just wanting to do advertising, but what we could only provide them, say 97.3 FM, in Brisbane metro market, you know, we now have a sales team that can provide them Ipswich, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, extending the reach out. Obviously, you know, the follow-on increase in improved revenue there. We can offer, from a national advertiser perspective, you know, we're talking to clients around integration opportunities that obviously we were doing across metro markets, but, you know, with the doubling of audience nearly, you can offer that integration across, you know, the whole country.
It's a combination of localized expansion of geographical areas and obviously being able to offer national advertisers much bigger reach with an easier transaction process and integration process.
And, and-
And that-
In that local example that you gave, would it be fair to say that basically Grant had no effective sales force that was getting the same revenues from those clients for those regions? They literally just weren't offering him the opportunity.
Yeah. I mean, this probably the reason why we felt it was such an attractive acquisition in that it was a fantastic company that was delivering very good revenues, which have continued into this year, but its ability to grow further was limited by the fact that it just didn't have a metro presence. That's what we provide now. In terms of where the revenue synergies can go, you know, when we did the business case around this, we sort of talked to AUD 20 million within three years. I certainly don't think that has changed in the six months that we've had. You know, we're quite buoyed by the fact that the early uptake has delivered nearly AUD 3 million.
I don't see any reason why that wouldn't change. That AUD 20 million doesn't change within 3 years.
Okay. Thanks, Kieran. Just the last one from me, just reflecting back on the conversion of, within digital conversion of billings to revenue, and I think you've called out that it's, there's high usage of third-party inventory. Should we expect that conversion ratio will remain the case for a number of years as you build up your own content versus third-party content?
Hey, John, it's Andrew. I think for at least the next kind of 18 months, that would be the case. Hence the little bit more guidance there around revenue growth in the second half of 15%-20%.
Over time, I mean, I don't know exactly how much owned content versus third party content, but over time, we would expect that ratio to narrow a lot or at least the differential to narrow quite a lot, say, over a three-
That's right.
2-5-year period. Yeah.
Great.
Yes. Okay.
John, just to put that in context. Sorry, John, just put that in context. When you know, we are a business that is a radio business that has been learning over the last couple of years how we move from that linear into a digital world. We have invested very conservatively in the development of our own content, if you like, while we understood how the monetization of podcasting and digital audio was working. We've gained enormous amount of knowledge in the last 12 months on that.
that gives us confidence now that the way we sell, how we sell as the sales team, the structure, the go-to-market piece that we have, the digital content packages that we put together, obviously will be a lot more focused around our own content and the investment that we've made in building up that content that we have will give us a lot more confidence that that margin will improve in our favor. But I think it's just been reflected.
Yeah. Okay.
reflect a lot.
Ciaran will quite a bit of that content that you're referring to, it will be effectively repackaged existing linear radio content that you'll be able to offer in, or is it gonna be new content beyond linear radio or a mix of both?
This is the great thing about the opportunity we have. It's a mixture of both. You know, in the old days, if you like, radio content was broadcast on FM and it was lost. We obviously see that a number of our talents past catch up podcast is extremely popular on the podcast ranker. We can monetize that in new ways from previously what we did before. Also there is new content that we're developing coming through. We've got things like the Five Minute Food Fix that Yumi Stynes does. We've got Life Uncut. There's a whole heap of really quality good content that's coming through that we're actually using both broadcast and podcasting to be able to monetize and promote.
Yeah. Got it. Thanks for that.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. If you have a question at this time, please press star one one. I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I'd like to turn the call back over to Ciaran Davis, CEO, for closing remarks.
Thanks, everybody. Apologies about the technology hitch halfway through. I don't know what happened.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.