Morning and welcome to the Earnings Call of Amotiv Results for he year ending 30th of June , 2025. I'm Graeme Whickman, Amotiv CEO, Managing Director, and I'm here with Aaron Canning, the company's Chief Financial Officer. A recording of this call, along with the presentation material, will be available later today on the website. I'll start the call by touching on the key messages and group performance on slide two, and then I'll go into a review of operating divisions. I'll turn over to Aaron to cover off the financial section in a little bit more detail, and then we'll conclude with a short trading update and outlook before conducting the traditional Q&A. Let's turn to slide three. I'd consider the overall result as solid, certainly in relative terms, in what was a challenging environment.
Some of the cyclical headwinds in four-wheel drive and LP&E persisted through the year, and we pushed hard on the strong Powertrain and undercar aftermarket positions and demonstrated really disciplined cost management. We stood up Amotiv Unified, a business platform build, as we looked to leverage our auto pure play, equal parts efficiency and effectiveness, also ensuring we had the capability to drive the operation in the future. At the same time, we returned over AUD 105 million in buybacks and dividends, still with a balance sheet that remains plausibly set for future investment and well within the communicated range of our capital management framework. The last to the right, we sort of talk about, and we'll finish at the end of the presentation, our view of how FY 2026 will translate.
We are expecting group revenue growth in FY 2026 with underlying EBITDA of around AUD 195 million in what is likely to be still a bit of a challenging environment, but obviously us leveraging those strong positions I spoke of earlier on. Turning to slide four, we detail the group financial results. You can see overall revenue was up marginally at 1%, with Powertrain up 3.3%, LP&E just down a small part, just below 2%, and then 4WD up by 1.7%. Similar to the H1 commentary, the New Zealand economy, the AUV sellers and OE channels affected both LP&E and then those same OE channels for 4WD versus our expectations.
Gross margins were down slightly, reflecting OE volumes, meaning that new vehicle sales and caravans in 4WD , but that was offset and mitigated by the wider group pricing actions we spoke about at the H1 result, which we got away effectively. Underlying EBITDA was up slightly ahead of revenue, which reflects some proactive cost management and operational efficiencies. However, underlying EBITDA came in at AUD 192 million, 1.3% down, which is a reflection of the continuing investment, particularly in manufacturing capacity and capability. That investment trajectory will be detailed later by Aaron . Cash conversion remains strong, which is actually quite typical for our group at just over 90%. I mentioned earlier, in terms of capital management, we announced the final dividend of AUD 0.22 per share, a combined that's probably a little bit ahead of what most people were thinking.
Dividend payments combined with our ongoing buyback program represented just over AUD 105 million in FY 2025. Finally, our net debt/EBITDA leverage at 1.9% is in line with our capital management framework targets, and Aaron will restate that a little later on. On slide five, I just wanted to reflect on how we're progressing with our five-year plan, which is drawing to an end, aptly titled GUD 2025. No prizes for creativity there. We'll talk more about the 2030 plan when we sit with our investors in the AGM in October. You know, we set out on slide five, we set out to grow the company and significantly de-risk it. You think of non-ICE revenue, you think about customer concentration, you think about geography, and also drive it towards the auto pure play.
We've largely delivered on those balanced scorecard metrics with positive revenue and margin performance hitting our WACC targets, but below our ROE expectations, all supported by solid operating disciplines such as safety and engagement. As I said, later in the year, outside of the results season, we'll announce our new Amotiv 2030 plan, which sits alongside the recently communicated capital management framework. There's quite a lot of clues in terms of what our expectation is in terms of financial outcomes in that strategy. Now you can see also our focus on core metrics such as return on capital employed and that framework that Aaron will touch on. On slide six, I wanted to share how we progressed and the five outcomes that we were looking for in pursuit of short to medium-term growth. Now, in terms of status, I'm happy to share we've made good progress in all.
We've quietly gone about our own Amotiv Unified efforts since introducing this in May 2024, Investor Day, and then subsequently talking about it at both the half and at our recent Thai investor review. We've kicked off a select number of projects. We'll speak later about this on the call, where we've completed cost out activities in 4WD , operating model in LP&E, and pickup, and then also in Powertrain. We looked at the distribution all the way through to even our ERP consolidation. By the way, we started this year with the fifth financial year. This was 15 ERPs, and we're already down to 11, so 25% reduction, close to. All quietly gone about. I'm really excited to say we stood up South African manufacturing. It's operational, its exit rates are profitable, and we're keen to start hunting for further revenue opportunities there in the medium term.
Offshore revenue continued to grow, and this was nicely demonstrated by the strong Vision X performance in Thailand doing well for four-wheel drive. Our operational excellence efforts were well rewarded throughout. FY 2025, you might have seen the numerous customer design, packaging, AFR awards that were listed on the right-hand side of the contents page. Finally, our capital management focus resulted in actions such as the current and ongoing share buyback program, successful debt renegotiation, and updating and publishing our capital allocation framework to ensure our investors had real clarity in this endeavor. Turn it to slide eight. We step into a series of divisional slides. On slide eight, we detail the key drivers of the 4WD segment.
In Australia, pickup sales were down around 9%, or if you exclude BYD with the launch of that particular model, actually down 13% in terms of the core brands that service the market originally. The clients were broad-based with the top three key models, the Ranger, the Hilux, and the D-Max, all down double digits between 16% and 18%. As I mentioned, the Shark launched in the second half, adding about 10,000 units. This is relevant because we don't provide towbars to that other than aftermarket opportunities. In New Zealand, the story was one of stabilization, some improvement off a very low base. Looking at ANZ combined, the pickup sales fell by about 8% or 12% excluding BYD. In terms of the SUV M+ , headline sales were up about 3%, but down 1% if you exclude the RAV4, which was on a bit of a tear.
Although positively, the Everest and the Prado saw some strong growth, which is good news. In terms of the actual 4WD division's performance on slide nine, it was actually a pretty solid performance in the context of cyclically weak pickup sales and also caravan and RV. I haven't mentioned that, but you know the caravan and RV market down across the board around 10%, but actually local production about 15% year- over- year. Some tough stuff there to deal with. Revenue was up marginally, supported by a modest acquisition contribution, but the organic revenue was a function of the weaker volumes I've just talked about, but stable fitment rates. Underlying EBITDA was down 1.4%, reflecting the softening of those volumes, and particularly in pickup in H2.
The 4WD team were proactive though in their cost measures, and we spoke through the year about the New Zealand right sizing, providing a modest offset. South African volumes were negatively impacted by mix, but I mentioned we exited in a profitable way. We expect that to normalise in FY 2026, which is positive. The strength of Cruisemaster and its offering was reinforced, although flat revenue on PCP, but obviously with the market down, it represents the share gains that they were able to harness. Cost inflation remains a feature of the business landscape, and therefore strategic aftermarket price rises were successfully implemented in Q3. The 5.5% drop in underlying EBITDA is largely driven by the sizable increase in lease depreciation, reflecting increased Thailand capacity, the new facility in South Africa, both of which are yet to deliver four-year revenue contributions.
Progress was made in FY 2025 with respect to tapping into offshore revenues, with a small but encouraging entry into the U.S. market by U-Haul and the Fox Factory. The other Chinese OEM will also represent a medium-term opportunity for the 4WD business if you think about business outside of our domestic operation, both in towbars and functional accessories, and that's sort of expanding on the recent agreement with GWM. Now, slide 10 speaks to the impairment carrying value, where a preliminary unaudited range of AUD 180 million- AUD 190 million was released to the market on the 22nd of July this year. On slide 10, you can see in FY 2025, we completed a year-end value and use analysis of APG, resulting in a non-cash impairment of AUD 190 million.
Through the second half, we have taken a more cautious long-term growth outlook for the business, and as we have articulated in the past, the business has been facing a combination of external and macro factors for some time, including the softer expectations for Australia's new vehicle sales and mix, and certainly a more subdued New Zealand outlook with ongoing macro and mix changes, and a more conservative view of the future cyclical growth in caravan, RV, plus a bit of FX and potential U.S. tariff headwinds. Impacts on the carrying value are ranked in order of the magnitude on the table on the right, with the change to the discount rate being a positive contributor. The lion's share of the impact was centered on the moderation of the five-year EBITDA growth and the lower starting point.
You look at that to the right, and then you come back to the left, and we still remain confident though in APG's medium-term outlook. This is still a great business. It has a fantastic competitive position, unrivaled amongst its peers. It's got market-leading brands. We've spoken many times about the deep OE relationships, and when we bought that business, I think on average for about 21 years, it's got fantastic R&D credentials, and that footprint in terms of manufacturing has proven useful in terms of the business wins that we've finished off there. All right, let's move to slide 11 in the LPE segment. We have provided incremental disclosure on the LP&E segment on slide 11 to improve visibility and the understanding of the drivers of this business.
While the car part growth, particularly within the key five years plus cohort, remains supportive, as we've discussed earlier, the combined cyclical headwinds of the lower NVS and the caravan/ RV, and indeed the bus and truck have been challenging for the resellers and also the OE part of the LP&E business, which total about 70% of the segment. Revenues in these channels were down 13% and 18% respectively. Pleasingly, the offshore portion has grown consistently through the acquisition of Vision X in late 2022 and later complemented by Rindab AB , VX Sweden. As you can see from the pie chart on the top right for the slide, this business in terms of VX is diversified across what is largely a solutions-oriented channel like fire, emergency, and mining. Returning to slide 12, the revenue reflects the combined effort of these drivers.
Revenues were down just a smidgen under 2%, which is including the full-year contributions of some acquisitions on CS and V X. Organic revenues were down just over 8%. In the infographic on the bottom right, we've shown how the ANZ market dynamics have impacted the key product categories, that's added disclosure. Lighting down 4% on a weaker domestic reseller and end-user demand, partially offset by offshore growth of Vision X. Power management up 7%, reflecting investment in new products of innovation and that U.S. growth, and then electrical and accessories similarly affected by the reseller demand with some signs of flight to value. Product development was a highlight. It continues to be an integral part of LP&E's DNA. Products launched in Australia in the last 24 months, a solid 15% of the revenue coming from those.
I mentioned earlier on, as we encountered some of the headwinds and part of the Unified program, we resized the Australian operational cost base, and that continued through H2, resulting in more FTE reductions. You can see the total on the slide of about 85 basis points, with a little bit of reinvestment in new capabilities planned for FY 2026. The underlying EBITDA margin decreased 80 basis points, but stabilized through H2 versus PCP due to price increases and the benefits of some of those right-sizing actions. Exiting FY 2025, the reseller demand still remains muted. Any further weakness though is expected to be mitigated by some of the annualization benefits from the implemented operating model changes. On slide 13, we turn our attention to Powertrain, and it's another solid and pleasing performance from the Powertrain Undercar division that reflects that continued resilience of the wear- and- repair market.
Filtration continues to deliver strong growth, aided by penetration of commercial vehicle filtration, so more new products coming through there. The underlying EBITDA margin largely reflects the divisional optimization benefits and a bit of modest strategic pricing, offsetting the freight and domestic inflation. Depreciation increase reflects the new consolidated Melbourne DC for DBA, and underlying EBITDA performance reflects the improved operating leverage from investments in simplifying and streamlining operations as part of Amotiv Unified, and that's things like the combined DC and some other projects where we've looked for more efficiencies in the ACS and DBAs and infinitive parts of the Powertrain. The Australian carpark dynamics are evolving, including a slowing in EV adoption. At the same time, hybrids and plug-ins have increased. That trend's positive for us, but in terms of EV investment via Infinitive, we actually have moderated our spend through H2, commensurate with this evolving.
Again, further changes are going to be put in place in FY 2026 Q1 to consolidate and streamline operations and improve returns. Talking of returns, I'd like now to hand over to Aaron for a bit more financial detail.
Thank you, Graeme, and good morning everyone. My name is Aaron Canning. I'm the CFO for Amotiv, and I'll take you through the FY 2025 results in more detail. I'll direct you to slide 15. Our reported revenue grew 1%, supported by the full-year benefits of recent acquisitions, most notably within the LP&E division with the CES and Rindab businesses, and the contribution of a small manufacturing business, Milford, in Adelaide within the 4WD division. Excluding acquisitions, organic group revenue grew 2.2% and was lower due to softer ANZ reseller demand in the LP&E business, and lower new vehicle sales, pickup mix, and caravan RV, and to a lesser extent New Zealand within 4WD . Pleasingly, we saw organic growth of 3.3% in Powertrain Undercar.
Gross profit grew 0.3% versus PCP, with gross margin percentages slightly lower by 30 basis points as the pricing changes made through Q3 have not fully offset freight, foreign exchange, and other inflationary increases. The full-year inclusion of acquisitions within the LP&E division will also be marginally dilutive. Operating costs were lower by 0.6%, largely due to a concerted focus and effort on cost management initiatives as part of Amotiv Unified and lower incentives. As Graeme touched on, we also took steps through the second half to moderate our investment in our EV business in response to changing carpark dynamics. From a depreciation point of view, we've provided further disclosure and we've split our investments made in fixed assets and new sites. Depreciation on fixed assets reflects investments in South Africa, a new Melbourne distribution center, and further investments in our Thailand manufacturing plant.
Depreciation on right-of-use assets includes new sites and lease agreements and the inclusion of acquired businesses, CES, Rindab, and Milford. Underlying EBITDA at AUD 192 million is in line with our 22nd of July announcement, 1.3% lower than the prior PCP, and reflects investments in a range of growth initiatives such as South Africa. Significant items of AUD 216.8 million, the vast majority relates to a AUD 200 million impairment charge. Of this amount, AUD 190 million relates to the APG business, as Graeme previously discussed, with the remainder being an H1 impairment charge to the fully equipped business in New Zealand and some small brand write-offs. Further to these, there have been costs associated with restructuring the business as part of Amotiv Unified, as we've taken steps to resize and restructure the business.
This has resulted in costs related to restructuring and severance payments, which will not repeat, and a headcount reduction of circa 5% for 120 full-time equivalent employees. These changes reflect annualized cost savings of AUD 14 million before reinvestment. We've provided separate disclosure of both cash and non-cash significant items on slide 29. Net finance costs reflect a reduction in commitments, improved margins, and refinancing benefits in the year. These have been masked somewhat by the unwinding of acquisition-related contingent payments and increases in lease interest costs. Our effective tax rate, excluding impairments, was 25.9% versus 29.2% in the prior corresponding period, which was impacted by significant items. The effective tax rate excludes APG and fully equipped goodwill elements of the impairments, which together total AUD 195 million. Both of these are non-tax deductible. We've provided further disclosure on the effective tax calculations on slide 33.
Our statutory impact obviously was impacted by significant items and was a loss of AUD 75.3 million. As Graeme touched on earlier, the Board has approved a final dividend of AUD 0.22 per share, bringing the full-year dividend to AUD 0.405 per share in line with last year. In combination with just under AUD 49 million invested in the buyback program for the year, the business returned over AUD 105 million to shareholders, inclusive of dividends and buyback. In relation to the buyback, we're in our internal blackout trading window since 30th of June . We intend to recommence this program and remain committed to purchasing up to 5% of the issued capital by the time of the AGM in October of this year. I'll turn your attention to slide 16, networking capital and cash conversion. Our networking capital was broadly flat through the second half and increased 9% versus PCP.
Inventory increases since June 2024 have been driven by AU reseller destocking and weaker demand in the LP&E division, predominantly through the second half. It also includes the inclusion of South Africa and Milford in the 4WD division, and to a lesser extent, some timing impacts in relation to inventory builds as we moved into a new warehouse in our Powertrain Undercar division. Our payables largely reflect differences in supplier payment timing versus the prior corresponding period. Receivables, this increased with revenue and also increased due to customer mix in Powertrain Undercar. Importantly, the one-off receivables issues that impacted our first half did not repeat. Our cash conversion, as Graeme touched on, was strong at 90.6% and stronger through the second half as we previously advised.
We finished the year marginally ahead of our 85% guidance, and our H2 cash conversion was circa 105% and reflects the strength of the cash generation of this business. We expect the business to continue to generate strong cash flows into FY 2026 in line with our capital allocation targets. I'll draw your attention to slide 17, capital investment. Our investment in product development was 3.1% of revenue, and as you can see from the chart on the left, it moderated slightly versus the prior year. As we look out to FY 2026, we expect our investment to be broadly around the 3% of revenue. From a CapEx point of view, we invested AUD 24.7 million, which was slightly below our guidance of AUD 25 million- AUD 27 million provided earlier this year, and we continue to focus on upgrading our manufacturing capacity and capability, particularly in 4WD .
The CapEx investment was split broadly 60/40 towards growth and was done intentionally with a view to balancing future investment with ensuring we continue to maintain and improve what we have today. This balance is consistent with our targets as set out as part of our capital allocation framework. As previously advised, we expect CapEx investments into 2026 to moderate slightly, being up to 10% lower than our investment levels in 2025. Onto slide 18, foreign exchange, FY 2025 was impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar versus PCP. However, this impact was well managed within a volatile spot market, as you can see from the chart on the right. After half a year, we provided visibility to our H2 hedging position, and you'll notice from the graph we avoided the majority of the volatility that took place, particularly through the April to June period.
Looking out to 2026, we remain approximately 85% hedged at slightly more favorable rates than the second half of FY 2025. We do not anticipate to have to take any out-of-cycle pricing in FY 2026 in response to a changing foreign exchange landscape. As we continue to grow our offshore earnings as well, we continue to build a natural hedge in both increased U.S. dollar and Asian currency earnings. Turning our attention to slide 19 and our balance sheet, the group's balance sheet remains in a strong and conservative position, with gearing at 1.9x and within the midpoint of our capital allocation framework range of 1.5x- 2.25x. The business continues to deliver stable and predictable cash flow earnings. Leverage increased through H2 as we increased the level of investment in the buyback program. We expect a moderation in our leverage through the second half of FY 2026.
We continue to benefit from a largely fixed and long-dated financing base at market-leading rates. We maintain strong support from a lender group with strong appetite for further support. Importantly, our cost of funds has reduced to 29 basis points versus the prior corresponding period, with refinancing undertaken through the first half, low equipment, improved terms, and covenants. As we turn our attention to slide 20 and the capital allocation framework, in February of this year, we announced the formulation of this framework. The purpose of this was to provide greater visibility in terms of how we will deploy capital against a set of key return metrics, both for organic and inorganic investments. We remain committed to measuring ourselves against these metrics, and importantly, going forward, these will serve to guide our target setting for incentive purposes.
For FY 2025, we performed in line or ahead of all metrics, with the exception of return on capital employed at 13.1%. Although this result is well ahead of our weighted average cost of capital, it remains short of our 15% target on a pre-tax basis. As we turn our attention to FY 2026, return on capital employed remains a key area of focus and improvement for the business. I will now hand you back to Graeme to discuss the FY 2026 trading update and outlook.
Okay, thanks Aaron. Before I get to those last slides, Amotiv is a diversified auto parts company. In the past, we've spoken in some detail about the attractive addressable markets we service both in ANZ and increasingly in other parts of the world. Having moved to a divisional operating structure, the scale and the reach of the group has grown over recent years, and the composition of revenue is now nicely split across those three operating divisions. Importantly, those divisions have clear competitive advantages. In 4WD , we nurture deeper partnerships, the strong manufacturing engineering credentials, and LP&E, you know, a real diverse channel mix, growing global footprint, and obviously Powertrain Undercar, very, very strong defensive moats, great brands like Ryco and Westville, and fantastic customer intimacy.
A number of these competencies have allowed an increase in growth in offshore revenue this year now to 17% and a good mix of ICE and non-ICE revenues as well. As just mentioned, the maturing of GUD to Amotiv as an auto pure play allowed us to start leveraging the business in a different way this year. Earlier this year, we announced Amotiv Unified. Aaron, maybe you want to touch on key updates here?
Yeah, thank you Graeme. I'll draw your attention to slide 23. Amotiv Unified is an internally conceived, inspired, and led series of projects that we have segregated into three waves. We've previously advised that we had commenced a number of projects within Wave 1 and communicated we expect these to generate efficiencies to be used to reinvest in the business to support future growth and improved shareholder returns. By the end of June 2025, we had commenced 12 out of the 25 projects, with the benefits to be delivered over the next three calendar years out to 2027. On slide 24, as part of Wave 1 projects, we intentionally focused on initiatives that will deliver financial benefits in the shortest possible time.
These programs included changes to our workforce and operating model, which we've touched on earlier, as well as procurement benefits from a group sourcing approach through to initiatives to drive revenue. This work on Wave 1 projects commenced earlier in this calendar year. We expect further benefits to be derived in FY 2026 and into FY27 from these Wave 1 projects. Turning to slide 25, in April of this year, we hosted an investor visit to our Thai 4WD facility, where we outlined AUD 15 million in gross benefits expected to be realized from the Wave 1 projects we had commenced. These annualized benefits have been delivered at the end of FY 2025, most notably from the graph you can see through changes to our operating model.
As I previously mentioned, this has seen 120 full-time equivalent heads depart the business, with 80 leaving at the end of the first half and circa another 40 leaving through the second half. The vast majority of these changes had been across the LP&E business, with the remainder impacting 4WD and to a lesser extent our Powertrain and Undercar and corporate divisions. We expect to reinvest a combined AUD 5 million or 1/3 of that AUD 15 million of gross benefits back into new roles such as digital, e-commerce, and AI, with a further investment to support growth in supporting our market-leading brands, with the net benefit in FY 2026 being AUD 10 million. If I turn your attention to the following slide and an update on tariffs, we provided an update on tariffs in our 8th of April Thailand site visit presentation. Since then, there's been a number of changes.
In summary, the key changes impacting Amotiv have been a lowering of tariffs on South Korean exports to the U.S. from a previously announced 25% to 15%. Importantly, this impacts our Vision X business, which you can see from the slide as the vast majority of our exports to the U.S. There's also been a lowering of tariffs from 36% in Thailand to 19% and a confirmation of tariffs on Australian exports at 10%. As previously advised, tariffs do not have a material impact on our results for FY 2025. We took price in early May of this year to partially offset the impact of tariffs. For the FY 2026 year, we expect tariffs to have an adverse impact on margins totaling approximately AUD 2 million. We continue to monitor and assess a range of opportunities to mitigate this impact as we trade through FY 2026.
I'll now pass you back to Graeme to cover off the trading update and outlook.
Yeah, thanks Aaron. Obviously, the tariff situation moves almost daily, doesn't it? Look, from a trading update point of view, after the first four weeks of July, Powertrain Undercar wear and repair remains resilient, good Ford workshop bookings. LP&E, the AUV sellers and OE channels they serve remain subdued, but some continued momentum in the U.S. and EU, which is great. In Australia, the pickups were up modestly net of BYD. From an outlook point of view on the right-hand side, I've already stated earlier, but I'll restate it again, we expect growth from a group revenue point of view in FY 2026 with an underlying EBITDA of circa AUD 195 million in what is likely to remain a bit of a challenging environment. What does that really mean? Core wear and repair categories, we actually expect to remain resilient. That's positive.
We think the ANZ cyclical headwinds are anticipated to potentially persist. We've taken pricing actions to support the gross margins. Aaron's mentioned around the net benefits of Unified to be expected around that AUD 10 million, but the combined offset in that of incentives and U.S. tariffs of about AUD 8 million. Cash conversion in line with the capital allocation framework, and we think we can do hopefully better than that given 75%. The completion of the 5% of the shares in issue in terms of the buyback, we're committed to pushing that through and get it done by the AGM as committed originally. We expect the balance sheet strength to be maintained, and we'll probably see some more deleveraging through in H2. With that, I just mentioned the AGM.
We'll look forward to providing a bit more of an update in that context and that timeframe, and also perhaps bring forward some more thoughts around our 2030 plan and Amotiv Unified. That concludes the presentation of the results. Before we go back to the moderator, I wanted to take the time to call out the Amotiv team who worked really hard through FY 2025. A lot of things happening, a lot of moving pieces. The board, Aaron and I are certainly thankful for their very, very hard work. Okay, thank you. I'll hand you back to the moderator who will coordinate any questions that you might have.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question via the phone, you need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to ask a question via the webcast, please type it into the ask- a- question box. Your first question comes from Mitch Sonogan from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Graeme and Aaron. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you hear me alright?
Yes, yes, no problems.
Yep, thanks guys. Graeme, just on the outlooks for the AUD 195 million EBITDA, is there anything we should think of in terms of first half, second half split, just with Unified benefits and that coming through? You did touch on it briefly there just in terms of the outlook, but can you just give a little bit more color, I guess, on how you're thinking about the segment performance to deliver that AUD 195 million? Thank you.
Sure, thanks for the question. Look, we think the skew will be largely balanced. There is a bit of timing wrapped up in that, and we'll probably give more of an update maybe when we're in October as well, but we're not looking at any, you know, divergent skews of any significance. That really depends on a couple of things, but no, nothing worrying there. In terms of the segment performance, obviously we don't call that out at that granular level. We felt that the group guidance was sufficient enough given where we're at and what we know to be true right now in our assumptions around some of the addressable market elements.
Clearly, when we call out the ANZ cyclical headwinds to persist, that probably gives some point of view around how that might impact four-wheel drive and to a lesser degree, but still importantly, LP&E because they're servicing the caravan and RV and obviously the pickup sales. We've gone on to say that Powertrain remains resilient. Without giving specific divisional updates, you can probably conclude how each of the divisions will contribute to that AUD 195 million.
Yep, thanks Graeme. I guess just jumping onto APG, obviously the rebased assumptions there for around a 6% EBITDA CAGR. Can you maybe just talk to any sort of visibility that you have? Usually you have a couple of months or two to three months of visibility there, and I think at the investor day you also had around AUD 20 million of incremental new revenue coming through in that business. You've got South Africa. There's a lot of things moving there. Obviously acknowledging you're talking about the tougher operating environment and pickups being down as well, but yeah, do you mind just giving a little bit more of an update on how you view, I guess, the outlook into 2026 and beyond that for APG with what you can see at the moment? Thank you.
In part, I guess the answer to that question bleeds into what I just said before. If you think about where APG specifically, although broader, the 4WD , picking up their revenue, the ANZ piece, we think that whilst June was a positive number, July was up modestly. Unless we see a material change, we think that the industry size and particularly the pickup size will be in a similar sort of space. Frankly, if I sit and reflect on where we thought FY 2025 would have been as an example, looking retrospectively, we're probably about 25,000- 30,000 pickups lower than what we actually had planned in our original forecast for FY 2025 all the way back when we did the business case, and that probably tells you a little bit there. That's one data point.
We're not expecting the cyclical headwinds that we're facing in caravan and RV to pull back. I'm pleased that at least Cruisemaster has been able to hold some revenues flat year- over- year. It tells us we're getting the market share, but we're not expecting that to come back. I think that's going to persist. That probably gives you a sense of the revenue potential in both the Australia and New Zealand markets. New Zealand, we don't think will be coming back. We've said that we think it's more depressed for a little bit longer, although we have taken right-sizing actions there. The offshore revenue is modest in terms of into the U.S., and I think that will trundle along. That would give you rise to the last part, which is the South African piece.
Whilst it exited profitably, which is encouraging, that's not a huge piece, and we have no wins beyond the first two that we announce. That's not featuring in the revenue that you mentioned in terms of the AUD 20 million. Some of the timing of that revenue wins that you mentioned, as an example, in this in Navara, you probably have seen that that's been delayed, not in our control in that regard in terms of the model. The timing of some of the revenue coming through in FY 2026 might be slightly different than what we had a look at in the Thai investor there. That would be the last piece I would make a comment on.
Great, thanks Graeme. Maybe just a final one, either for yourself or Aaron, just in terms of the incentives that you've called out there. I saw that in FY 2025 it was AUD 4.7 million lower, and you're sort of guiding to that being a, I think, a AUD 6 million impact in 2026. Can you maybe just give a little bit more color as to what that is? Anything you can provide there would be great. Thanks guys.
Yeah, sure. Two parts to your question. The first part was an FY 2025 versus an FY 2024 comparison, and we'd call that out at AUD 4.7 million. It's obviously reflecting we did not deliver on the suite of our metrics for a payment of incentives to all employees in this year. In terms of the FY 2026 number versus 2025, the delta is AUD 6 million. Obviously, as we're looking into FY 2026, that assumes that eligible employees would receive an incentive. That's the way to think about it, Mitch. I'm not sure if I'll answer any question though, but if there's anything else you want me to expand on.
Yep, no, that's fine. Thanks, guys.
Thanks Mitch.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tim Piper from UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning Graeme and Aaron. Just a follow-on from Mitch's question around the 2026 outlook. You guys have done a good job on margins, obviously, across the LP&E and Powertrain Undercar segments in the second half. If we think about sort of group margins carrying into 2026, you've called out the AUD 10 million net benefit offset by, call it, AUD 8 million across the incentives and the tariffs. Do we kind of assume that that second half EBITDA margin is sustainable into 2026? On that basis, if you kind of backsold the top line, you haven't really baked in much of a revenue recovery within the Powertrain Undercar and LP&E segments. Are we thinking about that the right way? Are you just being pretty conservative on that revenue outlook?
Let me answer it. Look, without getting into specifics, Tim, on individual divisions, I'll parrot to a certain extent what Graeme has said before. You know, we expect resilience in the Powertrain Undercar business in terms of wear and tear. I think you can probably interpret that. In relation to 4WD and LP&E, the cyclical aspects of those businesses sitting here today, we're not expecting those to be a tailwind for us into FY 2026. We're being a little more conservative sitting here today. Of course, we'll have another opportunity to update the market in October at our AGM. We'll have a benefit of a bit more data. From a new vehicle sales point of view, the results in June were encouraging. July also was a little better, but it's too early to tell yet.
We're being a little more conservative on that side of things at this point in time.
I think it's safe to say, going to your question directly around margins, what we haven't called out here, Tim, is we're facing double-digit millions in terms of cost inflation, near high single-digit FX year-over-year comps in terms of the million impacts. Obviously, that's being offset by some of the pricing actions. The typical margin management efforts that we've been pretty good at, we're applying. Freight, as an example, year-over-year is going to be up a little bit as well. Aaron and I are looking at the business and trying to make sure that we land something that's doable and making sure that we have to take in those other factors that we haven't actually called out in the presentation, but are still material and still the things we do at BAU level.
Yeah, that makes sense. Just on the Powertrain Undercar segment, I mean, that was kind of doing a pretty consistent 5%, 6% organic revenue growth. It dropped off in the second half of 2025. You've kind of called out a few impacts there from moving premises and things like that. If we sort of take your comments that wear and tear is expected to remain the same, have those sort of one-off or sort of temporary impacts now largely played through that segment, and that sort of headwind comes out of the Powertrain Undercar revenues heading into 2026 and sort of expect a rebound in revenue growth there?
Look, the revenue has often been in that sort of AUD 4 million, AUD 5 million, AUD 6 million, sometimes AUD 7 million, depending on which reporting period we're looking at. At 2023, it was a little bit muted. There was some interesting information put out by one of the big chains. They run an annual survey, and it showed actually this year that there was a high percentage of their customers delaying servicing a little bit from sort of the six and seven months to eight, nine, 10. That might be something that's going on in the background. There's also capacity issues in some of the workshops in terms of techs. That seems to be returning as quite a thematic across workshops in terms of their throughput and capability. There are a number of things rolling through there at times that's hard to put together, and I understand why you'd ask the question.
We still expect it to be resilient, whether it's threes, fours, and fives. I'm not quite sure at this point. We'll see how that plays out. There are some, and you take it down to the margin level, there are a couple of things, as we've called out, that take place in the first half that's a little bit of a benefit as well.
Got it. I'll just squeeze one quick last one in on APG. Sorry, again on margins heading into 2026, you're not taking in a cyclical recovery in the underlying sort of business. By the sounds of it going by your outlook, you've got South Africa and some new functional wins coming in. Do they sort of, does that effectively make it a bit margin dilutive for the APG segment if you're not getting the operating leverage on the underlying and then some new businesses coming in, is it a lower margin?
Yeah, I think that's a, in a directional way, I think that's the right way to view it. There is that potential and certainly to be a little bit dilutive. You know, that business we've stood up on a four-year runway is profitable, but obviously at a different margin composition relative to, you know, the margin we generate out of it. Keysborough, in fact, our Thai plants, and naturally if we've got a little less volume, you can almost think about the year gone and almost two parts. We started out with a certain run rate and it dropped off in the back half, although June was stronger, and we're expecting some of that to carry through. The operating deleverage will roll through. We're not expecting caravan and RV, and that's becoming more of a material part of four-wheel drive. We're not expecting that to bounce back either.
You'll be reminded of what I said earlier on, whilst the caravan RV year- over- year is about 9%-ish when you look at the industry figures. If you back out the imports, the actual domestic production, which is obviously what we serve mostly, it's actually down, I think 15.2%, 15.3%, and we're not expecting that to bounce either. That's some of the assumptions we've made, Tim.
That's great. Thanks, guys.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you'd like to ask a question from the phones, please press star one and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from James Ferrier from Wilsons Advisory. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Graeme and Aaron. Thanks for your time. Could I first of all ask you maybe just for a bit of a contrast between the PU segment and LP&E? You've got a lot of resilience in that PU segment over a longer period of time, and you contrast that with the reseller channel in the LP&E segment in particular. How do you reconcile the differences there in terms of end customer sell-through rates and perhaps the level of discretion that you see or expect the level of elasticity in demand? It just seems like we've seen a prolonged destocking in that reseller channel, or perhaps we're underestimating the degree of discretionary demand that exists in those aftermarket categories?
Yeah, I think, let me have a go at responding and invite Aaron if he wishes to add. Look, the Powertrain Undercar, you're talking about the likes of brakes, filtration, and the like. These are traffic drivers. They're core elements of service. There is, I think, a distinction certainly when you contrast PTU versus LP&E. You've got parts of LP&E, bulb replacement, switches, fuses, those types of things. You'd argue it has similar elasticity as filtration as an example. There are parts also to the business, and you can see that in the lighting and the electrical accessories where there is a bit more discretion, or in some cases it might be a flight to value that sits in there.
Our resellers were down, and I won't talk about any particular reseller, but our resellers were down in any given month somewhere in between 10%- 15% in relative terms. We had one reseller that was comping a very, very big year because they'd stood up a warehouse and had some pull-through in the prior year. That certainly impacted. The other side of the equation, James, when you think about LP&E also is that the non-reseller business, when you think about buses, trucks, I'll get to caravan RVs in a second, but the build rates on trucks were down material, 15%- 20% the customers they're serving. Then you've got the caravan RV, which we've just, so you've got your solutions-based part of the business and a cyclical challenge, and that's quite material when you look at the composition of the revenue.
You've got your reseller, I think it's a reflection of end-user demand, a bit of flight to value, a bit of hands in the pocket, and a little bit of discretion as well. I'm sorry I can't give you the precision you're looking for, but that's certainly the thematic, James.
No, that's helpful. Thanks, Graeme. To probably extend that on a forward-looking basis, the FY 2026 guidance, you've talked to earlier questions, you've talked a bit about your expectations around caravans, RVs, New Zealand, things like that. What are your expectations around that reseller channel within LP&E in the context of your 2026 guidance?
Look, we haven't baked in any heroic revenue increase in that regard. We're watching closely around the general mood of not the resellers, but the end users in terms of whether they are putting their hands in the pocket. We're cognizant that we may get the benefit of a few more rate cuts that might generate a little bit more energy that translates to the resellers. What we haven't done is we've not got some sort of hockey stick. We're thinking more a similar sort of run rate. Even if that drops slightly, we're still expecting to be able to offset with some of the operating model changes we made in terms of the cost offsets, when I think through to the bottom line.
Understood. Thanks, Graeme.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Elijah Mayr from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Firstly, before we dive into the APG segment, just looking at those changes in assumptions around the next sort of five years, is there anything structurally changed in your view around the new vehicle sales outlook, whether it's in overall volumes or mix shifts with the rise of Chinese brands that have contributed to the lowering of the assumption?
Look, if you think about the assumptions, the only thing I'd say there around Chinese is obviously BYD. BYD knocked about 10,000 units out of the blocks when they launched. I've said in previous conversations they may have, I don't know, 12,000- 15,000 units per annum, something of that nature, out of an industry size, let's call it 240,000. That is a little bit of a structural change given we don't provide tow valves or functional accessories. We do to the other Chinese brands. That would be the only structural change in terms of who we sell to. At the end of the day, there's not much difference in terms of the people we're serving or the brands we're serving other than that.
If you think about the actual industry sizes, with the benefit of retrospect and the fullness of time, you kind of look at the industry sizes when we bought APG and we had expected different industry sizes. Let's not muck around, it's cut to the chase, right? At the time when we bought back in July 2021, when we were doing the analysis and ultimately in January 2022, a month later we had Ukraine and then we had 11% or 12% interest rate increases through that year and inflation was benign before. Now it's through that 2022, we've peaked at 8% and therefore we had to create more revenue to generate some of the things we were thinking about. Caravan market was off, that's obviously again cyclical, not necessarily structural. Obviously the industry sizes we're expecting more. I'd call much of that more cyclical than structural.
We'd expect hopefully over time to bounce back, particularly when you've got net immigration still pulling through and at some point the industries will improve just that little bit more. That's kind of how we're thinking about it. Certainly we were expecting slightly larger industry sizes, we were certainly expecting slightly larger caravan RV, and we hadn't anticipated that you'd have a BYD coming. That's probably the bigger structural change.
Thanks, that's helpful. Maybe I guess following on from that, now you've kind of stepped away from those original expectations around the industry size for APG. How are you thinking about acquisitions going forward, whether there's Fultons or something larger in terms of net debt or leverage levels that you'd be comfortable with before you start acquiring again?
We have been really clear around the acquisitions. The big acquisitions are completely off the table as it stands. We have actually been clear around our bolt-ons. Yes, there are bolt-ons out there, we watch them. We are really clear, particularly when we published our capital allocation framework, around the returns that we are expecting out of the existing business. We have been concentrating pretty hard on Amotiv Unified and new product development and standing up the likes of South Africa and the Thai expansion to squeeze more out of what we have in terms of the portfolio and getting it in shape. We are determined to get our return on capital employed to a certain level and generate the EPSA that we have got sitting in our compensation targets as well in the future.
That is where our concentration is and we think we can squeeze some more out of that as opposed to relying necessarily on acquisitions. Hopefully that answers your question.
Yeah, that's helpful. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. As there are no longer any phone questions, we'll now pause briefly and address any questions from the webcast. Your first question comes from the webcast, from Andrew Hodge from Canaccord Genuity. Andrew asks, at this stage, have you intended any adjustments between statutory and underlying EBITDA outcomes for FY 2026? Thank you.
Thank you, Andrew. At this point in time, if we look into 2026, we do expect there will be some further changes in relation to one of our manufacturing businesses and 4WD , the Milford business, as we look to rationalize that site and put that volume through our other plants, most notably in Thailand and in Melbourne. That will result in some individuals in that plant leaving the business, so severance costs. Aside from that, we're not expecting there to be significant other adjustments between underlying EBITDA and statutory profit in 2026.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Whickman for any closing remarks.
Thank you. I want to say thank you to the people who attended. I appreciate the questions that were asked. I think Aaron and I look forward to spending the next three, four, five days visiting with our shareholders and the sell-side community to make sure that the clarity of the message and what we're expecting out of FY 2026 is clear. Thank you to some of the Senior Leadership Team who I know are also listening in to this call for your hard work in FY 2026. I look forward to, as I said, visiting with the shareholders as Aaron and I do through the course of the next few days. Thank you for your time and appreciate your attention. Thank you, everybody.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.