Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Tania Archibald, BlueScope's Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer. With me is David Fallu, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll take you through the FY 2026 results, the progress we've made against the agenda we set at the half, and how we're positioned for the future. We'll then take your questions. I'd like to begin by acknowledging the traditional custodians of the various lands on which we meet and work today, and pay my respects to elders past and present. I'll begin with safety. There is nothing more important than the health and safety of our employees and contractor partners. BlueScope has a strong safety culture, built on a track record of extensive engagement with our workforce and an ongoing commitment to learn and improve.
Throughout the year, our global safety refocus program guided our work on critical risks and the effectiveness of the controls that manage them, but our performance is not yet where it needs to be. The tragic loss of a contractor at Port Kembla in November is a stark reminder of the importance of our work in this area. That incident remains under investigation by the regulator, and we're engaging fully with that process, and we are determined to learn from it, as we do with every serious incident across the business. Building on the progress we made in the year, we're continuing to drive a more systematic approach to managing critical risks and improving controls. This work is supported by our new functional operating model, which has brought all of our safety professionals into a single global team.
This change is designed to bring the full force of the organization's capabilities to the greatest areas of opportunity and challenge as we seek to strengthen our safety performance. Financial year 2026 has been a defining year for BlueScope, in which we've accelerated the delivery of value, which has positioned us well to capture the next phase of growth and returns. I'm proud of what the team has achieved and believe we're well-placed for the years ahead. In February, we committed to accelerate value delivery across four pillars. On growth, peak CapEx is now behind us, and two of our major projects have just moved from construction to hot commissioning and ramp-up phase. That's the new state-of-the-art metal coating line in Western Sydney and the new low-emissions electric arc furnace at Glenbrook in New Zealand.
On cost, in FY 2026, we fully delivered the initial AUD 200 million cost-out program, which we commenced just over two years ago, and we've exceeded our targeted additional AUD 150 million cost-out program with the reshaped cost base in place from 1 July this year, delivering a simpler, leaner BlueScope. On property, we've accelerated the delivery of value with a range of project deliverables through the year, highlighting the significant value in the surplus land portfolio. Finally, for shareholders, we've delivered a significant step-up in returns whilst maintaining a robust balance sheet. Put simply, we've executed on our commitments. Turning to the headline numbers, FY 2026 demonstrated the strength of the portfolio as we shift from a heavy investment phase to one of ramping up shareholder returns.
Underlying EBIT of AUD 1.27 billion was materially higher than FY 2025, whilst second-half EBIT of AUD 716 million was above the top end of the guidance range, supported by a stronger North American contribution, record Southeast Asian performance, and delivery of cost and productivity targets more than offsetting cyclically low Asian steel spreads. Underlying net profit after tax for the year was just over AUD 800 million, and the balance sheet finished the period in a strong position at AUD 600 million net debt. With the major investment program ramping down across the next 12 months, we're continuing to ramp up returns to shareholders. The board today approved an unfranked final dividend of AUD 0.65 per share and an unfranked special dividend of AUD 0.70 per share, which, when paid in just under a month's time, will see us delivering on our calendar year 2026 commitment of AUD 3 per share in distributions.
Shareholders have been patient through the investment phase, and that patience is now being rewarded. Turning to guidance, we've entered the next half with solid momentum. We see continued strength in North America, a solid demand environment in Australia, and early signs of recovery in New Zealand. In China, overcapacity continues to weigh on regional steel spreads. For one half 2027, we expect underlying EBIT in the range of AUD 860 million -AUD 960 million, subject to spread, foreign exchange, and market conditions. The assumptions that underpin this outlook are set out on the page, and David will take you through the regional detail shortly. BlueScope today is a lean, modern manufacturer of high-quality steel products, systems, and solutions that our customers know and trust.
Our purpose and bond are enduring and grounded in care and respect for our people, our customers, our shareholders, and the communities in which we operate. We're guided by three key strategic themes that focus on customer value creation, operational excellence, and shareholder value delivery. Our decision-making is supported by our longstanding financial framework, which drives a focus on resilience and returns, a disciplined approach to capital allocation, and an unwavering commitment to deliver long-term shareholder value. We're strategically differentiated by our ability to combine highly competitive manufacturing assets with deep customer relationships, leading product development, extensive channels to market, and strong strategic marketing capabilities. With a long-standing presence and deep manufacturing and market expertise across Australia, New Zealand, North America, and Asia, we bring decades of know-how to every market we serve. Our in-country, for-country approach keeps us close to customers and end-use markets.
Through these elements, we aim to deliver resilient through-cycle earnings, robust and growing cash flows, and higher shareholder returns, all of which we're seeing in these results. Turning to growth, where we've been working hard to deliver our 2030 AUD 500 million EBIT uplift target. In North America, we're continuing to target more than AUD 200 million of improvement, anchored by North Star debottlenecking and our coated and painted strategy, including the BCP turnaround. In Australia, we're targeting more than AUD 125 million, supported by continued growth in COLORBOND and TRUECORE steel, backed by the new Metal Coating Line #7 and the plate mill upgrade, which will enable capability, service, and quality improvements. In Asia, we're targeting a AUD 75 million uplift through capital light growth of value-add products and solutions across Southeast Asia, and we're pursuing targeted growth segments in China.
In New Zealand, continued growth in COLORSTEEL and the benefits of the newly commissioned electric arc furnace will enable the AUD 75 million growth target. During the year, we have made good progress on the major projects which underpin earnings resilience and growth. At Erskine Park in Western Sydney, the new 240,000 tonne Metal Coating Line #7 achieved the significant milestone of metal on strip on the 4th of August . Production ramp-up will continue through this half. This is a state-of-the-art metal coating line with high levels of automation, process control, and smart technologies. The project has taken longer and cost more than initially anticipated, largely reflecting the high inflation environment for capital projects as well as the extensive wet weather delays throughout the construction period. Critically, this investment underpins our long-term supply of TRUECORE and substrate for COLORBOND, both of which achieved record sales in the year.
The new low-emissions electric arc furnace at Glenbrook in New Zealand produced the first heat of steel on the 3rd of August . Similar to the new metal coating line, ramp-up and transition to operations will occur across this half. This marks a key milestone for our New Zealand operations, enabling a step change in our emissions profile, and most critically, a transition to a more flexible demand-responsive production model. The North Star debottlenecking program is progressing well across all nine components, unlocking an additional 300,000 tonnes per annum of capacity at one of the best-positioned mini mills in North America. The overall program is running on schedule and in line with budget, with three of the project components now complete. The Port Kembla plate mill project remains on track with the processing upgrades already delivered and in operation.
With the first phase now complete, the next phase of the project, being the product quality improvements from the new furnace, are on track for delivery mid next calendar year. Importantly, the plate mill upgrade delivers new heavy plate capability with broader application to defense, infrastructure, and renewables projects. The transition schedule for the No.6 Blast Furnace Reline project has been pushed back to early two half FY 2027, reflecting the scale and complexity of the project, and similar to Metal Coating Line #7, has experienced inflation in construction costs. No.5 Blast Furnace continues to perform strongly, which gives us flexibility in cut-over timing and no impact to our operating risk profile. Importantly, the No.6 Reline project secures Australia's domestic supply of iron for up to the next 20 years whilst we work through our decarbonization pathway.
On climate and sustainability, we remain firmly committed to executing our strategies and delivering on our targets. In Australia, we are exploring various pathways for decarbonization. One of these is the NeoSmelt project that we are leading in joint venture with Rio Tinto, BHP, Woodside, and Mitsui Iron Ore Development. NeoSmelt is an Australian industry R&D project designed to secure the long-term future of Australia's Pilbara iron ore industry and provides BlueScope a potential decarbonization pathway. The project is aiming to build a pilot direct-reduced iron and electric smelting plant designed to use blast furnace-grade Pilbara ores in DRI production, a major step forward from today's DRI technology. The partners are targeting a final investment decision by the end of this calendar year, subject to government support.
In North America, the North Star and BlueScope Recycling teams are ramping up the production of low residual shred and reducing our reliance on pig iron without affecting product quality or mill efficiency. In New Zealand, the new EAF will deliver a step change in our site emissions by almost 50% and reduce New Zealand's overall country emissions by 1%. The EAF, coupled with geothermal power supply, also enables new lower-emissions product offerings, which we are delighted to bring to market. None of these investments have been straightforward, but they also underline two critical themes for manufacturing. Firstly, a reminder that capital is mobile and seeks the best risk-adjusted return. Stable, competitive, and predictable policy settings attract long-term investment, while uncertainty and structural cost disadvantage discourage it. Secondly, where the manufacturing industry is today in Australia is largely the product of policy choices made over the decades.
While other nations have competed intensely for manufacturing investment through a variety of strategies, Australia has largely stayed on the sidelines. Now is the time to change that. Australia's Future Made in Australia agenda is the most significant shift in industrial policy in a generation, and it provides a very real opportunity to reshape Australia's future. Public policy settings should help create the conditions that allow globally competitive manufacturers to invest, grow, and succeed. In turn, strong financial performance underwrites continued investment in capability and innovation, including lower-emission steel making. At BlueScope, we remain committed to a vibrant and competitive manufacturing base in Australia for the long term. That is why we continue to advocate for structural reform of Australia's energy market.
It is why we support a level playing field via an effective trade remedies regime, and it is why we continue to drive Project NeoSmelt, which has the potential to lay the foundations for a green iron export industry. Moving to cost and productivity. We fully completed our initial AUD 200 million cost and productivity program in the half, which was a great outcome. Earlier this year, we went further and established an additional cost reduction target of AUD 150 million on a gross basis. Now, we have exceeded delivery of this target, so we now expect the full AUD 150 million to flow into FY 2027 as a net benefit. The team has done a fantastic job executing on this target and resetting our functional operating model. The result is a simpler, leaner, more agile BlueScope.
On property, our overarching objective is to accelerate the delivery of value from our 1,200-hectare portfolio, which sits in sought-after industrial locations with proximity to port, rail, and energy infrastructure. As a reminder, over 60% of the total portfolio is already appropriately zoned and able to be developed. Across the year, we made great progress with activities ranging from planning and zoning to development activities and sales. Moving into FY 2027, our focus is on progressing the logistics hub at Western Port as we commence the process of shortlisting proposals and the commercial and structuring work that supports value delivery from this initiative. We are also progressing opportunities for Port Kembla that are complementary to our manufacturing operations, including a focus on the development of an energy precinct, along with other planning and development activities.
On shareholder returns, to quickly recap, in February, we announced a plan to deliver AUD 3 per share in returns in calendar year 2026, representing a material step-up in distributions to approximately AUD 1.3 billion, which is around 10% of BlueScope's market cap. With today's dividend announcement, this plan is being fully delivered. Given the ramp down in our major capital investment program and the ramp up in cash generation, we've announced a plan to repeat the AUD 3 share returns in calendar year 2027. This plan is supported by a robust balance sheet. Before I hand over to David, let me step back and cover the macro and industry backdrop and the longer-term opportunities across our business. In Australia, construction activity remains resilient, supported by housing, infrastructure, and non-residential demand, and the medium-term outlook is underpinned by favorable demographics and a sustained housing shortage.
Value-add and branded products remain key drivers of volume growth as our products and systems continue to gain traction. As for spreads, regional overcapacity, driven by record levels of exports from China, continue to pressure spreads and margins in the Australian business. The Australian business has proved to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of the sustained low-spread environment with a firm focus on cost and productivity and continuing to grow the value-add portfolio, providing tremendous upside operating leverage. In the United States, demand remains supportive across our key markets of auto, non-residential construction, and manufacturing. The data center rollout and broader e-commerce infrastructure have underpinned solid non-residential construction demand. More broadly, North America continues to be a great place to make and sell steel. The regulatory and industry environment is favorable and supportive of the demand outlook across steel-consuming sectors.
Our footprint and quality of assets position us well to capture continued economic growth. We also have a clear runway to grow with the incremental expansion at North Star, adding low-cost capacity into a market that remains structurally short of steel. Across Southeast Asia, we have an outstanding footprint across every major economy. The region is becoming increasingly attuned to the value proposition that BlueScope has spent the best part of six decades embedding. Our positions are well-established, with latent capacity to capture growth in this fast-growing and dynamic region. In New Zealand, demand conditions have been soft, though we're starting to see signs of recovery. Much like Australia, favorable trends in demographics and demand will drive medium to longer-term volume growth for our product suite, including the new low-emissions offerings enabled by the EAF.
Whilst I set out a constructive picture on demand across most of our regions, cost escalation remains the persistent challenge. It was compounded this year by the Middle East conflict, flowing through to fuel, freight, and input materials, and it underlines why a relentless focus on cost and productivity sits at the heart of how we run this business. Above all, it's the design of our portfolio that delivers value through the cycle, positioning us to capture our targeted growth while absorbing the headwinds along the way. I'll now hand over to David to take you through our regional performance and the financial framework
Thanks, Tania, and good morning everyone. Turning to the regional performance, starting with Australia, which delivered underlying EBIT of AUD 188 million in the financial year, with a second half EBIT of AUD 66 million. Domestic dispatches increased to 1.15 million tonnes in the half, driven by residential and non-residential construction demand, with COLORBOND and TRUECORE steel hitting a record volume with 654,000 tonnes and 155,000 tonnes in the year respectively. The result reflects sustained low Asian steel spreads and a non-repeat of one-offs, partly offset by cost, productivity, and value-added volume gains. As an integrated modern manufacturer in Australia, our priority is to keep growing domestic and value-added volumes while reducing costs to support margins. With performance remaining challenged by soft regional spreads, you can see the importance of focusing on shifting more volume to domestic sales and more of those sales toward value-added and premium branded products.
Pleasingly, that trend has continued with our record COLORBOND and TRUECORE volumes this year. Cost also remains critical and the operating model reset has helped in this space. Our work here needs to be ongoing, not only to offset inflation, but to enhance our earnings profile in concert with the work on value-added growth. Turning to North America, North Star delivered underlying EBIT of just over $800 million in FY 2026, with a second half EBIT of $484 million, up 50% on the prior half on materially stronger realized spreads and increased production capacity. We expect to see further benefit of the significant benchmark spread increase flow into FY 2027 due to the nature of longer pricing lags and other pricing mechanisms that cover around a quarter of North Star's sales book.
The business continued to operate at full utilization and effectively managed its cost base to negate conversion cost increases in the half. North Star remains an outstanding asset with its continued margin outperformance relative to peers due to operational capability, geographical location, and a strong performance culture. We continue to unlock capacity in the mill to grow our volumes and earnings from this great business. Buildings and coated products North America delivered an EBIT of $230 million in FY 2026, with a second half EBIT of $101 million, 20% lower than the prior half. Across the segment's three component businesses, BlueScope Buildings performance softened slightly in the half, with some seasonality and slightly lower volumes due to a temporary lull in new project work 6- 12 months prior to the period as the market digested a range of trade policies and measures following Liberation Day.
BCP performed in line with expectations, delivering a loss for the half, however, an improving performance across the period. Steelscape's performance improved on higher volumes as demand recovered from the prior period's tariff-related volatility. Across North America, our priorities are continue to maximize volumes at North Star, expand buildings where returns are clear, selectively grow downstream value, and deliver the turnaround of BCP. We are well-positioned for growth in the region, and the successful execution of these priorities support the longer-term opportunity of bringing our painted steel value proposition to the North American market. Asia delivered underlying EBIT of AUD 177 million in FY 2026, with a second half EBIT of AUD 81 million, down around 15% on the prior half. The region is delivering strong returns with further upside to be realized from its unrivaled footprint for regional growth.
Southeast Asia had a record year, with all countries showing improvement from sales and marketing initiatives and operational excellence. The opportunity here is significant, not only from the strong positions our brands have in the market and the demographic tailwinds in the region, but also from the significant latent capacity we have in the region to capture this growth, making it a very capital-efficient opportunity. China was lower than the prior year on seasonality and weak domestic conditions. As we've previously announced, we completed the sale of our 50% interest in Tata BlueScope Steel during the year. Our priority across this business is to strengthen customer propositions and selectively expand higher-value downstream solutions as the markets continue to mature. New Zealand and Pacific Islands recorded an underlying EBIT loss of AUD 1 million in FY 2026, with a second half EBIT of AUD 16 million.
The result was thanks to improved product mix as COLORSTEEL delivered a record performance despite softer conditions, along with an improved cost performance. The EAF installation was largely finished at the end of the financial year, which is a fundamental strategic reset of the business. The EAF will reshape the earnings and emissions profile of the business, with the benefits starting to flow through and a full run rate following the FY 2027 transition year. Turning to the drivers of the year-on-year movements in underlying EBIT. Looking at FY 2026 versus FY 2025, the largest contributor was a material lift in net spreads, driven predominantly by stronger realized pricing at North Star. Volume and mix contributed positively, reflecting the stronger domestic volumes in Australia and continued growth in premium branded products, including COLORBOND, TRUECORE and COLORSTEEL.
Conversion costs and other costs reflected the benefit of our cost and productivity program, offset with inflation and escalation. As a reminder, our cost and productivity program benefits are not just sitting in conversion costs. They're across a range of buckets, most notably raw material costs, which actually more than offset higher conversion costs in the year. Comparing the second half of FY 2026 to the first, similar dynamics applied. Looking at the guidance period across our regions, noting the group first half FY 2027 guidance range and assumptions Tania mentioned earlier, in North America, we expect a result more than 1/3 higher than the second half of FY 2026, with North Star benefiting from stronger benchmark spreads and improved cost performance. Within BCPNA, improved volumes and ongoing turnaround initiatives support a stronger result.
In Australia, we expect a result around two-thirds higher than the second half of FY 2026, driven by higher realized spreads, stronger domestic volumes, and continued cost discipline, with impacts from major projects transitions reflected in the outlook. In New Zealand and Pacific Islands, earnings are expected to be around one-third lower than the second half of FY 2026, largely reflecting EAF commissioning impacts, partly offset by improved benchmark pricing. In Asia, we expect performance broadly in line with the second half of FY 2026, with seasonally softer conditions in Southeast Asia offset by stronger seasonality in China. Finally, corporate and group is expected to be approaching 3x the second half of FY 2026 result. This primarily reflects a non-repeat of the AUD 76 million West Dapto land sale profit recognized in the prior period.
Turning to our financial framework, which remains a critical guiding document and it is central to how we run the company. Framework remained unchanged. However, we have evolved the settings within it to reflect a stronger, more resilient earnings base, materially improved cash generations, and confidence in the trajectory of CapEx within our growth projects now nearing completion. As we have noted in recent years, ROIC has been impacted by the once-in-a-generation capital program, adding to our operating asset base, while Asian spreads have held at bottom-of-the-cycle levels. In the year, ROIC improved, thanks to improved contributions from North America and continued strength in Asia. On cash flows, in FY 2026, free cash flow was AUD 240 million, impacted by our peak CapEx. As a reminder, shareholder returns are paid from operating cash flows, less sustaining CapEx, with the commitment to distribute at least 75% of this number.
Importantly, with peak CapEx now behind us, the cash flows available to fund distributions will be materially higher going forwards. Turning to our balance sheet, net debt at year-end was AUD 600 million, well within our target range, thanks to stronger U.S. spreads and specific timings of cash flows. We also have ample liquidity, and we have taken the opportunity to enhance this position further in July to ensure a frankly rock-solid maturity profile. The combination of the balance sheet position and liquidity gives us a great platform to support our planned returns in calendar year 2027. CapEx was AUD 1.5 billion for the year, in line with expectations, with the second half being our peak CapEx for the half. The profile steps down from here. FY 2027 CapEx remains slightly elevated as we complete the remaining AUD 500 million of the program before normalizing further.
As a reminder, our typical annual CapEx is approximately AUD 600 million - AUD 700 million, with around AUD 450 million - AUD 500 million in sustaining CapEx and foundational spend, and typically a further AUD 100 million - AUD 200 million in organic and incremental growth investments. On shareholder returns, this calendar year saw us accelerate the step-up in distributions with a plan to deliver AUD 3 per share in calendar year 2026 and AUD 1.65 per share paid during the half. As noted, the board today approved the unfranked final ordinary dividend of AUD 0.65 per share, as well as a AUD 0.70 per share unfranked special dividend as an alternative distribution to the previously flagged AUD 310 million buyback program, which we have been unable to execute during the period. This sees us fully deliver our calendar year 2026 plan with approximately AUD 1.3 billion in distributions this calendar year.
This level is significantly higher than the periods in the decades prior by a significant margin. As we look ahead, we have announced today that we plan to deliver at least a further AUD 3 per share in calendar year 2027, with the rebased ordinary dividend complemented by other methods such as special dividends and buybacks where available. BlueScope has always been a highly cash-generative business, with the last few years seeing this directed to our major investment program. Clearly, we are getting back to more normal cash flow numbers, which support the stronger return levels. As such, it is exciting to see that our approach in this space is designed to be sustained, not one-off. And with that, I will hand back to Tania.
Thank you, David. Before we take your questions, I want to reiterate a number of points. The results today demonstrate the strength of the portfolio and our execution capability. Earlier this year, we committed to accelerating the delivery of value. We have delivered on our commitments over the last half, and we will continue this work into FY 2027. With the major investment period ramping down, we are ramping up returns to shareholders with a significant increase in calendar year 2026, planned to be repeated in calendar year 2027. BlueScope enters this next phase from a position of real strength as a lean, modern manufacturer of high-quality steel products, systems, and solutions that our customers know and trust. I want to close by thanking our people for their dedication through a demanding year, our customers and partners for their trust, and our shareholders for their continued support.
With that, we will open the line for questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question today comes from Ramoun Lazar with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Morning, Ramoun.
Hi, Tania. Hi, David. How are you? Hi, David. Hi, Tania. Just a couple of quick ones from me. Maybe if we can dive into the ASP performance a bit more in the half. Look, revenue per tonne was a step up across that business. I am just trying to break down, what were some of the drags in that second half that you saw impacting those results? Then for the first half, if you could maybe just outline your expectations around the transitional impacts from the BF6 delays and the MCL7 ramp up. That would be helpful in trying to get to a baselined earnings number for this business going forward.
David?
Yeah.
Sorry, you go.
Yeah. No, Ramoun, look, I guess just in terms of the specific around some of the ASP performance, there was a component of one-off benefits not being repeated in the second half. You will recall that first half, we had a one-off tax benefit in the first half period, which wasn't reported. Then, as we are working through the stages of Blast Furnace No.6 transition, that has an implication for some of the operational costs that we saw in that second half.
Probably what is also worth adding, in terms of the performance in the second half, we are working with the law of low numbers. There is a lot of moving parts within ASP. It only takes a few things to occur, and it looks like it has a significant impact. If I sit back and look at the business, the cost and productivity performance in Australia has been very, very strong. The fact that we are selling record levels of COLORBOND and TRUECORE. Thankfully, we have managed to start up Metal Coating Line #7 . It is now in the ramp-up phase. That is going to underpin that long-term growth in COLORBOND and TRUECORE. We think there is a lot of upside there. What we are dealing with is reasonably solid demand in Australia, but we have a very low spread environment, probably a bit of an impact from FX as well.
We are dealing with the lag impacts, the way the lag spreads work, is probably one of the toughest spread environments that we have seen. The fact that the Australian business is still profitable, it has demonstrated enormous resilience, and it says to me that we have tremendous upside in the business. In terms of the outlook into the second half, there is a few factors, again, dealing with the law of low numbers. There is a few things like we ran a particular trial, in the fourth quarter of 2026, around using some higher pellets and lump. It was part of a decarbonization trial, and that drove up the cost, which then lagged into the second half.
There is probably a little bit of disruption, I think, in terms of how to think about the lags on iron ore and coal, because what we are doing is building up a bit of stock, in terms of the transition for the blast furnace. That will disrupt what you would have as the normal lags for iron ore and coal.
Got it. Any sort of quantification of those impacts, Tania or David, that could help us?
Oh, I think-
-into the first half.
Look, I think what we'll look to do, Ramoun, is probably more an overall review once we've gone through the transition of Blast Furnace No.6 to see if we can provide you with additional help around the lags that you're seeing. But in terms of the overall impacts from what Tania was referring to specifically, that's about between AUD 20 million-AUD 30 million impact.
Okay. Well, that's helpful. All right. Then just the second one, just on North America and the pricing lags there. My understanding is there's a proportion of those tons that are now contracted on a fixed price basis or on the formulas under a fixed price basis. Can you maybe just touch on those, Tania or David, how they're impacting the first half, and then when those potentially get reset, and I guess is that a tailwind or a headwind into the second half?
Yeah. So the fixed price or fixed spread contracts, they've actually always been there. They've always been part of the mix. It's something that we decided to ramp up a little bit more post the expansion, and it just goes to how we target and partner with customers for the long term. For the longer-term perspective, it does reduce volatility, but I appreciate that when you have movements in the index, in the short term, it can create a bit of more of the near-term volatility. So it's more pronounced when you've got these high movements. I don't think they're necessarily going to go away. I think they will be an important part of the book going forward, not necessarily changing the component, but I think they're going to be there.
But I think it is also about how we think about the longer term, how we protect in down cycle conditions as well. So it is really just a bit of longer term thinking. Now they do reset at the end of each calendar year, so it is not like they are a permanent structure. There is a renegotiation that occurs every year. Would you like to add anything there, David?
No. Look, effectively, it is a bit of a component of how we hedge the sales book. These are typically contracts that are a lot stickier. There is quality and qualification requirements and it forms part of how the North American team manage the risk around sales.
Right. And presumably, if they have set at the end of the calendar year, they would be well out of the money compared to where spot prices are currently trading.
That is right.
Yep.
Okay. All right. I will leave it there. Thanks.
Thanks, Ramoun.
Your next question comes from Owen Birrell with RBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks, guys. I just wanted to ask a question around the AUD 150 million cost reduction program. You provided a good split between, I think, 60% headcount reduction for 2027 and then 40% external spend. I just wanted to understand, I guess, on the external spend area, are there any sort of key target areas that are obvious to reduce the cost there? Similarly with the headcount reduction, if you can provide a bit of color around which divisions or which regions you are expecting to see that cost reduction from the headcount.
I will start off with the headcount reductions, and then David can give you a bit of flavor on the external spend. In terms of the headcount reductions, what we have done is basically put in place a 4% headcount reduction across the global portfolio. Now, it is slightly less than that in Australia, just because of the ongoing rounds of optimization that we have been doing over many years now, but broadly, it is about 4%. It is primarily centered around corporate, functional, and administrative roles. Now, there is a number of operational roles in parts of the portfolio where we have gone a bit deeper in terms of uplifting the level of performance. But by and large, what it reflects is a reset of our functional operating model, whereby we have taken the functional teams which were previously nested within each business unit and each sub business unit, and we have moved them into global teams.
What that does is drive greater scale and efficiency, better focusing of effort. It means that we have been able to take out a little bit of duplication that might have occurred over the last couple of years. So it is probably the best way to explain it, I think. And external spend?
Yeah. Look, so that is across a range of areas as we talked about through the FY 2025 to 2026 walkthrough. So probably the largest component actually came from raw materials and [IT]. Within the SG&A functions, it has really been the opportunity to drive that in a much more coordinated way through having those functions come in into a central area of practice. Then from a raw materials perspective, it is primarily around productivity and efficiency in raw materials utilization, which has enabled the teams to drive an improvement in external spend in that space.
Can I ask just a question on the increase in Middle East costs? You called out to the fuel and freight. Are you expecting a reversion in some of those costs if we do see a settling of the Middle East issues?
I think there will be some benefit. It has to be. It has settled a little bit. We have seen it obviously in the fuel, the freight rates, raw materials, including paint. The biggest area of heartburn that we have had has been around the aluminum supply. We have now resolved that one. I think it will come off, and we will see it principally in those headline numbers around fuel and freight, most specifically. Again, inflation is an area that we have obviously got to watch very carefully. We are not alone in this. It is probably a bit more pronounced in Australia than elsewhere. It just goes back to that relentless focus on cost and productivity.
I know that you have not, unlike many other companies, you have not called out that cost inflation impact. Do you have a sense of what that has been in FY 2026 and how much it could revert into 2027?
Look, I think in terms of the overall impact in FY 2026, the Middle East reversion wouldn't be material. I think as Tania has said that we have actually seen it caused a lot of challenge around making sure your supply chain was resilient in that space. We had a couple of suppliers who were based in the Middle East that obviously was the apex of challenge for us. We have resolved those. I am not expecting that. That was more ensuring supply as opposed to it being something where I think we will get an improvement in price year -on -year.
Okay. Do you mind if I ask a second question just on the sales side? Out of ASP and New Zealand, we noticed a bit of an uplift in the export volumes in the second half. I am just wondering, where are these volumes going? Are these volumes still profitable given some of the trade tensions that we are seeing at the moment?
Yeah. The uplift in the second half is pretty much normal seasonality that you see. We often end up with a bit of a stock build in the first half and then a release in the second half. Yes, given all the trade actions that have been occurring globally, you've obviously got the tariff wall around the U.S., you've got Europe has put up the tariff wall. Yes, that does dampen overall returns that we earn on the export market. We did deliberately put some slab over into New Zealand, and that was really just backup planning as we start the new electric arc furnace. We go through the transition there. We just wanted to make sure that there was no operational disruptions to our iron and steel making. So there's a little bit of extra slab there.
I think, though, what it does underline is, again, the incredible importance in Australia of continuing to grow the domestic franchise, continuing to grow the value add components in particular. Again, that's why the start-up of Metal Coating Line #7 is just so important to us. We still see ongoing growth in COLORBOND. We still see ongoing growth in TRUECORE, and continuing to grow that and reduce, over time, the reliance on the export market as a relief valve or release valve for the production volumes that we have coming out of the blast furnace is quite important to us.
Okay, thank you.
Your next question comes from Harry Saunders with E&P. Please go ahead.
Morning, Tania, David. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, just to follow on from Ramoun's. Just wanted to clarify that AUD 20 million-AUD 30 million quantified about the first half guidance for Australia. Is that across all the impact from the blast furnace and MCL7? Is that expected to be confined largely to the first half, as a one-off, so should reverse, like maybe how much of that is that depreciation transitional charge? Thanks.
No. Sorry, Harry. I was referring to the impacts of cost into inventory through various trials that have been utilized within ASP as part of their ongoing decarbonization work. In terms of transitioning from, to Blast Furnace No.6 into full ramp-up, we would treat that as FY 2027 as largely being that transition year.
Okay. So you're not sort of quantifying how much is one-off across the blast furnace and MCL7?
No, not at this point.
Okay. And, yeah, maybe just on the working capital outlet, given we talked about some potential builds of raw materials ahead of the transition there, across the first half and the full year.
Yeah. Look, in terms of working capital, I think the team's done a good job in terms of managing that in the context of those inventory builds. Again, in terms of the release of that, we would see that coming through towards the end of FY 2027 as a release. But, the reality is that there will still be a degree of elevated working capital to support the transition of both Blast Furnace No.6 and the EAF through the course of FY 2027.
Got it. Thank you. And maybe just to follow on, if there's any view in North American steel spreads beyond the first half. I mean, where, I guess, do you eventually see that settling at mid-cycle? How long do you think this current strength could be sustained, and what do you think are the key drivers behind the strength?
It is an interesting question around North America. I mean, obviously, we have a very positive trade and macro environment that we're looking at at the moment. More broadly, it's hard to come up with a better place to make and sell steel globally. If you put aside the tariff wall, you've got a very large market. It's a very resilient market. We still see healthy demand there. What you have is very strong supply side discipline. It's obviously dominated by electric arc furnaces, so wonderful supply side discipline in terms of the ability to pull back in the face of demand swings. And I think for North Star, obviously, we have a very high-performing asset, probably the highest performing asset in North America. In terms of how long it sustains for, we can't really control that.
What we're focused on is maintaining the performance of North Star and continuing to grow that very valuable asset.
Thank you.
I would say, Harry, what we see at the moment is auto is quite healthy. I was asked previously around the impact of EVs coming out of China, but what we see is pretty robust demand in the U.S. The construction part of the market is reasonably strong. There's quite a bit of demand that's been put in there by data centers. We know that part of the order book in the BlueScope Buildings area is about 20%. Part of their backlog that they have into this half, about 20% of that would be made up by data centers. So we know that data centers is driving a degree of strength into the U.S. demand environment as well.
Understood. Thanks.
Thanks, Harry.
Your next question comes from Lee Power with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Morning, Tania, David, and team. Tania, just on the, I mean, there's been a few questions on it, but the AUD 150 million into FY 2027 just on the cost side. Where do you think the kind of escalation of conversion and other costs kind of tracking, because I think that was AUD 98 million in FY 2026. So I'm just trying to work out, you've obviously got a lot of cost pieces, but it feels like [I kinda] was probably a little bit overly optimistic into 2026. So what are you seeing from an escalation side into 2027?
I might give you the escalation question, David.
Yeah. Look, in terms of escalation into 2027, Lee, outside of escalation that we have seen into sort of delay and cost in major projects, broadly it has been sort of within more normal usual expectations. So, low to mid single digit across most of the areas of the portfolio. Team has been doing a particularly good job around sort of management of energy costs. We have largely reset to market in that space. So it is not the same degree of impacts that we have seen over the last couple of years.
Okay. Thank you. Your comments just then, Tania, around the demand and supply outlook in the U.S. Clearly it is a very strong time at the moment. You are still running a $750/t spread in your assumptions for North Star, so that is still down from kind of spot levels. Is it more on the supply side or the demand side that you think drives that reversion?
It is probably a little bit of both, I guess. We simply take the standard formula. What I would say is that demand is really quite resilient. I think the other factor to note is that the service centers, they do not have a lot of inventories at the moment. They are relatively light on inventories. Is there anything you want to add?
No. Look, I think, the reality is it is largely a contract market fundamentally at the moment. If people have contracted volumes, they are taking it, and there is not a lot in the spot. I think, realistically, there is an element of lag that is playing into that. Ultimately, as we go through sort of re-contracting, you will see that play into price, assuming that spreads remain where they are.
Now, we are also watching the new supply that's coming online, of course. The U.S. continues to be structurally short. We know that West Virginia will come online over the next two years. We're watching that very carefully. But broadly speaking, I think it's quite a positive demand environment.
Okay. Perfect. Just one final one, if I can. Just on BCP, it seems like you've made some decent traction there. How do we think about that in the U.S. going forwards?
Yeah. So the ambition remains absolutely undiminished, Lee. I think we've made no secret of the fact that we're a couple of years behind where we wanted to be originally. But we still see a very large market opportunity, for the value proposition and capability that we have. We have a relatively new management team, and whilst they might be new to BlueScope, their deep experience in the industry, they're doing a lot of heavy lifting on improving the quality of the assets, the manufacturing performance and the lead times, and basically, bringing the lines up to the standard of BlueScope. We're making sure that we're competitive to the tolling alternative. Still very focused on bringing in the single bill option, and ultimately the branded offer. We can still see the pathway there. We still are targeting an appropriate return on the original invested capital.
But yes, we are a couple of years behind, but we're making good progress. I spend a lot of time engaging with the BCP team, and I'm very confident in that team, and I can see the progress that's being made in the business.
Excellent. Thanks. Appreciate the color today.
Thanks, Lee.
Your next question comes from Peter Steyn with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, Tania. Thanks very much for your time, and David. I was going to ask, along the same lines as Lee. I was just curious, in the fullness of time, what would your broad expectation be, presuming you are still going to make midstream investments?
Yeah. It's an interesting question, Pete, as to whether or not you actually need to integrate from the paint lines back through to metal coating and cold rolling and ultimately to North Star. I think it's an option that sits there. I think there's a different set of dynamics that exist in the U.S. which may mean that that's ultimately not required. I think that we can have a highly competitive business without necessarily needing to be fully integrated, but it's a question that we will continue to test. What we're very focused on right now is uplifting the performance of BCP and making sure it is competitive, again, in the tolling market and then ultimately in the single bill and ultimately the branded market. I think it's an interesting question that sits there, Pete.
Gotcha. Thanks, Tania. Then maybe just on the property side of things, just a perspective on how you're thinking about balance sheets utilization in the context of that business. Do you generally see it as only a sale or how much of or is there an opportunity for on-balance sheet development to maximize value? If so, which properties are you most likely to go down that route with?
Yeah, thanks, Peter. Look, in terms of how we look to approach that, the most important thing for us is to remove any of the uncertainties that kind of bring a discount to that property value. That's why the overall rezoning at Port Kembla is a huge benefit to us. To the degree that we need to utilize our balance sheet to help support that, we obviously can, but I'd say that there's many ways that we can look to ultimately realize or monetize the opportunity that sits there. It wouldn't be the first port of call to utilize our balance sheet to be the primary supplier into that space where we can leverage off capability elsewhere.
So one could think about specific partnerships, I guess, is what you-
Exactly.
-have just spoken of.
Yeah, exactly. You've seen us, obviously, where it's already effectively at full value, like our residential property at West Dapto. That probably just lends itself towards a straight sale. There's not much point partnering in that space. Where there's still more opportunity for value uplift, that's where we'll consider the partnership opportunities.
Yeah. If I could, just a little bit of an extension on the energy option at Port Kembla, could you maybe just color that in ever so slightly just to understand better what your thought process there is?
We're very mindful that with the surplus land that sits around the manufacturing operations, we're very focused on how we can drive synergy for our existing operations. We've been doing quite a bit of extensive work around energy precincts, and that could form a variety of options, including, for example, batteries. We're also very mindful with Port Kembla of the long-term energy infrastructure that would be required for an eventual change in steel making. I'm obviously thinking longer term here. Just in terms of the infrastructure that would need to be put in place, the easements that need to be preserved, that's all part of our longer-term planning around the property portfolio.
Perfect. Thanks, Tania. I will leave it there.
Thanks, Pete.
Your next question comes from Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Brilliant. Thank you. Just two quick ones, hopefully. MCL7, you have talked about now being in ramp over the course of the next six months or so. I guess what I am wondering here is, have you felt constrained in TRUECORE and COLORBOND steel volumes over the last 12 months? I guess what I am really asking there, is there a chance of a nonlinear ramp-up relative to the targets you put out on slide nine?
Yeah. The challenges that we've had have been going on for a while over the last couple of years, and it became extremely pronounced during the COVID period. You actually need to almost break it down to production weeks. We have experienced periodic shortfalls in supply, and what it does is create a not great customer experience. We are very focused on making sure that we've got the volumes there as and when our customers need them. So it is more about addressing the periodic shortfalls that do occur that create frustration for our customers. But more broadly, we see good upside potential. More than potential, we see the upside coming with continued growth in TRUECORE. We know that metal framing has grown across the Australian residential space. It is sitting just below 20%. We would have the lion's share of that.
When you think about where it was 10 years ago, it was sub 10%, so we've made good inroads. I see no reason why we cannot go significantly higher. I also see the opportunity with COLORBOND and continuing to grow there, not just in the roofing space, but walling. One of the things that we did not actually announce in this pack, because it came slightly too late, but we've also just commissioned the new digital print capability down at Western Port in Victoria. That is a very exciting addition to the portfolio. We think that is probably going to play an important part in the residential space, including in walling applications. So there is a lot of exciting stuff going in terms of the growth more broadly of the metal-coated product.
Okay, great. Thank you. My second one, obviously a few months ago, you pulled out of the Whyalla process in terms of, well, pulled out. Obviously you are not still in it. I guess what I am wondering, you've got that has gone. You are obviously ramping up your capital management activity. Whether it is reactive or proactive, I am not really looking for a view on that so much as could you just make sure, just describe how you make sure you do not miss out on valuable medium-term investment opportunities in the context of trying to reward shareholders for, as you say, an extended period of CapEx?
Yeah. I think there is probably two questions in there. So firstly on Whyalla. The reason why we are primarily looking at Whyalla is because of the very high-grade magnetite ores that are sitting there, and whether or not that provides an opportunity for Port Kembla down the track. We remain interested in it. The consortium remains firm. We did not progress into the current phase, but we are obviously sitting there with our rider blast offer. We are watching the process with interest, but I've been very consistent that whatever we do, it would absolutely have to make sense for shareholders. If we cannot get that to work, then we will continue looking at other options. Now, just in terms of the ramping up in capital management, we've been engaged in a very extensive investment program for quite a number of years now.
That obviously puts a degree of constraint in terms of the shareholder returns. What we are seeing now as we have passed through peak CapEx, we have now got the benefit of the improved cash flows now, also coming through in the next couple of years. So it is a deliberate design to ramp up the shareholder returns. We are not constraining ongoing growth opportunities. I think David mentioned in a couple of his earlier comments that we generally set aside AUD 100 million-AUD 200 million for growth opportunities on an ongoing basis outside of the major projects. There are some ongoing opportunities that we have in North America. We are looking at some potential options around BlueScope Buildings. We have got some capital light options sitting up in Asia. We have got some ongoing opportunity for growth in Australia, which is not necessarily CapEx related.
It is more around how we continue to grow our market share. So I do not see that we are in any way compromising our ability to grow. It is really about resetting the balance between investment spend and reallocation of capital to, or returns to shareholders.
Okay, great. Thank you. That is all I have.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Keith Chau with MST Marquee. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tania and David. Tania, maybe a first question for you on capital structure and capital returns. Given no franking credits at the moment, it is not necessarily the most efficient way to return capital via special dividend. The buyback, I think, has been extended to the end of August 2027 now. Just want to be clear, what are the factors that prevent BlueScope from buying back shares on market outside of corporate activity potentially going on in the background, or a view on internal valuation? Is there something else that we should consider when assessing the prospects of that buyback being active?
Thanks, Keith. Look, the buyback is always an option. It is sitting there for us to use. The decision to go with the special dividend has a very simple premise. It is the most straightforward and clear way of delivering value directly to our shareholders. It is highly visible, and therefore, that is the basis that we have gone with for this particular half. We do not want to be accused of doing anything inappropriate, so that obviously the buyback was inactive for a period of time whilst that corporate activity played out in the year. But again, it is also reinforced to us the need to be very clear about the value that we are delivering to shareholders.
Okay. Maybe a follow-on to that, Tania. Is there anything at the moment that constrains you from reactivating that buyback?
No, there's nothing that would cause us to stop reactivating the buyback.
Okay, thank you. Second one, I know there have been quite a few questions being asked on Blast Furnace No.6 transition and also MCL7. Maybe just put it simplistically, when is MCL7 expected to be fully commissioned and producing at capacity, or, sorry, producing at a level that you're happy with from an efficiency standpoint? The transition from Blast Furnace No.6, how far into FY 2028 could that persist?
MCL7, I think the fastest that we've actually done in terms of ramping up a metal coating line is about three months. It can take a bit longer. It can take three, four, five months. Having said that, I've been hugely impressed with the commissioning stats that we're seeing. This really is a state-of-the-art facility, but it is early days. So, across this half, basically, and then we should be hitting our straps into the next half. In terms of the Blast Furnace No.6 transition, what will occur there is that in the next half, so in that January to June period, that's when we'll see the cutover from No.5 to No.6 . Blast Furnace No.5, I think we mentioned Blast Furnace No.5, which is the current operational blast furnace, is running extremely well for where it is in its campaign life.
We've actually got full flexibility in terms of the timing of the cutover. I would like it to be earlier in the half. But basically, we just need to do the cutover as and when we're ready. If the cutover was to occur, if it looked like it was occurring at the end of December, for example, we would probably push it out into January, just because it's important that the teams get a rest. They've obviously been at this project for a number of years now. It's a very large project. We've got around 800 people on site, so it's very complex. But I would think some point early-ish in the next half is what we're targeting for the cutover. That cutover, by the way, will generally take about a month in terms of ramping down No.5 and ramping up No.6 .
Okay. Thanks, Tania. The last one, maybe for David. There have been a lot of discussions on cost outs today, but seemingly the corporate costs guidance for the next half at least is higher than expectations. David, is there anything to call out on corporate costs that have ramped over the last period, and should we assume that the run rate for the first half of FY 2027 is something that builds from next half onwards? Thank you.
Yeah. Primarily the main piece there is the investment in property capability is sitting within that corporate number. So like -for -like, it's actually a reduction in corporate costs, Keith. But primarily what's sitting in there is effectively the build of property capability to drive the acceleration value Tania was referring to.
There's a little bit of tech spend in there as well. That change in the accounting standard obviously means that tech spend now goes from CapEx to OpEx. Because of the change in our functional operating model, in the first instance, we have got a little bit of cost, I am going to call it AUD 5 million-AUD 10 million that is sitting in that corporate cost that will actually end up being reallocated out to the businesses. Just that functional model change has probably had a bit of an impact as well.
Okay, thank you. The go-forward level on a half-yearly basis is whatever the guidance was for first half FY 2027, less the AUD 5 million-AUD 10 million going back into the divisions.
That is right.
Again, depending on the level of property activity.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay. That is great. Thanks very much.
Probably just for complete clarity, Keith, we have not incorporated any sort of property realizations in guidance. We will do that if we are reasonably proximate.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks, guys.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Morning, Tania and David. Hope you're both well. First question, just to reflect on, I guess, the last six months and the approach from Steel Dynamics and also Seven, and looking at your response, and today with the announcement of AUD 3 planned of capital returns for next year. David, can I just look at the moving parts around your forecast operating cash flow for next calendar year, your forecast CapEx and looking at effectively what the implied free cash flow is. Does basically the AUD 3 imply that you're going to pay out around 100% of free cash flow when you look at your scenarios?
Yeah. So in terms of CapEx for next year, effectively that's just over AUD 1 billion, which largely reflects some of the delay and increase from the major projects flowing into FY 2027. A bit over AUD 600 million of that is expected in the first half of FY 2027. Ultimately, as I said, we'll have a minimum of 75% of cash flow going back to shareholders. So ultimately, that kind of sets the base, and depending on how we're seeing the sort of outlook more broadly, we'll take a view as to whether we sort of increase that level.
Okay. All right. And then a question maybe for you, Tania, just when you look at the portfolio and, again, your response from that approach, and you're doing everything you can on the cost out. Cost out's not easy. I think the AUD 150 million represents circa 3% of your AUD 5 billion annual cost base when you exclude raw materials. But that program is going quite well. If you look at the non-core assets you sold, you sold India for a decent price above relative to book value. When you look at the portfolio, is there anything in the portfolio that you look at and go, well, there's ongoing opportunities to monetize? Maybe calling out, for example, China, where the carrying value halved and it sort of underperformed in the period, or anything in the U.S. with respect to BlueScope Properties.
But just stepping back, when you look at the portfolio, is there anything that you look at and go, well, we continue to see, in addition to cost out, an opportunity to unlock value for shareholders?
Yeah. It's a good question, Paul. It's something that we engage on a regular basis. And obviously, the India example is the most prominent one. We have already wound down the properties business in the U.S., so we've released pretty much now all of the cash flows. There's one project to go, I'm sorry, in the BlueScope Properties Group in the U.S. When I look across the portfolio, at the moment, I see a strategic rationale for all of the assets in the portfolio. What I've been particularly impressed with, I think the real gem of this year's performance has actually been our Southeast Asian business. Often we get questions around the value of that business, and I think the efforts that we've been putting into that business over the decades are now finally starting to shine through.
I think it's got a big role to play in the portfolio going forward. The China business is an interesting one. It's an intensely competitive market. It's a very weak macro environment. There's a lot of very exciting things going on in China. It's extremely innovative. There's a lot of IP sitting in China. We think it's a good business to have. It's obviously impacted in the last half with the cyclical impacts. I mean, it is quite extreme in China in terms of the seasonality, I should say. We still think it's a good business. We think there's a lot of upside to be had with that business. So we're very keen to retain that business. I think more broadly, when I look at the U.S., again, the ambition with the BCP business remains absolutely undiminished.
Again, we are two years behind where we wanted to be, but we see a very large market we think that we can adapt to have a value proposition that'll look a little bit different to Australia. It'll look a little bit different to New Zealand. It'll look different to what we do in Asia. It'll be adapted for that environment. But we believe that there is significant upside opportunity there. So we're very comfortable with the set of assets that we have. I think I'd earlier called out the performance of the pre-engineered buildings business in the U.S. It's been performing at a very strong level. They've put a lot of time and attention into how they manage their backlog and their margins. They've got a good, healthy market that they're dealing with. So we're very comfortable with the portfolio as it currently stands.
Yeah, that's clear, Tania. Can I then ask just a quick comment on Australian demand at the moment? Volumes were good in the half. TRUECORE volumes were good. I'm hearing about a COLORBOND price increase possibly flowing through in the December half. The A&A volumes and just work on hand across the industry is strong exiting the half. Then we've got, obviously, the uncertainty around the new Australian government policy with respect to negative gearing and housing. Your sales teams generally have a one to three-month view on order books on COLORBOND here domestically. What are they seeing on the ground, particularly in the last couple of months?
Yeah. Good, healthy, solid demand. It's been quite resilient, probably more than expected. I think the approvals have continued to trend upwards. I think what we do see, Paul, is a bit of a two-speed economy in the sense that Queensland and W.A. are performing very strongly. Melbourne and Sydney are a little bit more challenged, but I think that provides us upside opportunity in terms of the growth that we're going to see there. If I look more broadly, industrial commercial is also quite positive. I think the outlook for infrastructure is also quite positive. There's a bit of strength in demand actually coming from data centers. This one we find it difficult to quantify, but we do know that there's COLORBOND going in as roofing and walling, part of insulated metal panels. We also know there's welded beams going in there.
So we see there's reasonable strength in demand. What we also see in the distribution channel is a fair degree of resilience. Don't think customers are sitting on a lot of inventory. I think they're buying very cautiously. But I think we've been impressed with the way that underlying demand has actually held up. In terms of the government changes, I find it an interesting one. I'm sure it'll have some positive impact. But at the end of the day, it doesn't really alleviate the supply problem. What really needs to happen here is we need the land to be freed up, the approvals to occur. We need the infrastructure to be put in place. Trades availability is a critical issue. I think until we address what sits at the fundamental heart of supply, I think it's going to be a little bit of a challenge.
I mean, at the end of the day, we've got a structural shortfall in housing. The more that we can do on the supply side levers, the better we'll be.
Okay.
Maybe another point to add, Paul, is obviously, we've got a reasonable exposure to A&A, and those budget changes really do not have an impact in that space.
Yeah, I noticed that line's trending up. Okay, thank you. That's all positive.
Thanks, Paul.
Your next question comes from Chen Jiang with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tania and David. Thank you for taking my question. Some of my questions have been asked. Just a few follow-up, if I can. Firstly, on the Australia business. You mentioned the demand is strong in Australia, but in contrast, the Asia steel spread remains subdued, and actually the export spread has been declining, and China net steel exports remain elevated to the rest of countries. I'm just wondering, for the TRUECORE and the COLORBOND volume growth, is that demand or strong demand is across all of your steel products or just for the TRUECORE and the COLORBOND like a value-added product? I guess I'm just trying to understand the volume growth in the TRUECORE and the value -added. Is that driven by the demand, strong demand in Australia, or driven by your growing the market share, like you mentioned, over your competitors?
I have a few after this. Thank you.
Yeah, it's a good question, Chen. Look, I would say that we have absolutely been growing share in TRUECORE and COLORBOND. I think the demand is reasonably strong across all of our steel products. I don't think there's any areas of particular weakness that we would see. But certainly, some of the added strength that we would see in TRUECORE and COLORBOND would be around that share growth. It goes, again, to the strategy that we've been driving for many years now, which is make sure we grow the domestic market, make sure we grow the value add component of the domestic market, make sure that we have a quality product, a premium branded product that we support through the channel, including pulling through the end demand by the work that we do in marketing, advertising, et cetera.
There's a big extensive program that sits behind all of that.
Sure. Thanks, Tania. Is that across all your products or just for the TRUECORE and the COLORBOND you have strong demand?
Demand is reasonably solid across all products, all product segments. There is no particular areas of weakness that we are seeing.
Okay. Right. Got it. That is good to know.
Yeah.
Thank you. For the blast furnace transition to your newly realigned Blast Furnace No.6, I know a lot of questions have been asked, but I am wondering how long is the transition period? I understand you mentioned the cut over is next half, and then about a month to move to Blast Furnace No.6.
Yeah.
I'm just wondering, generally speaking, BlueScope haven't done blast furnace transition for a while, realignment. Are you expecting any volume impact and as well as cost? Are you running two blast furnace at the same time until-
Yeah.
-your newly aligned one going to run smoothly? How should we think about that beyond the first half FY 2027? Thank you.
Yeah. No, it's a good question. I think the last time we did a realign was back in 2009, and that was when we had a two blast furnace situation. Back then what you have to do is go like mad and realign the furnace at pace, because you're not using, and you obviously need that volume. Since that time, we've shut down one of the blast furnaces. So Blast Furnace No.6 has actually been sitting there as a mothballed blast furnace, which we've sort of kept carefully under wraps. It's that blast furnace and the broader precinct around Blast Furnace No.6 that we've been doing all of the upgrade work on. This is, to be fair, it's not just a realigning the blast furnace itself, the furnace proper.
There is a huge amount of work that's been going into the whole infrastructure that sits around that facility. We can no longer run dual blast furnaces for any extended period of time. We simply don't have the infrastructure in place to do that. What we'll be doing is building stock ahead of the transition. That's some of the disruptions that you'll sort of see being impacted in the numbers right now. So we build stock, and then we'll run down No.5 Blast Furnace. We'll ramp up No.6 . That'll occur over the space of about a month, all being well. Then we'll basically just do the full cut-over, and No.5 will then become mothballed.
Right. Thanks. That is going to happen in second half FY 2027, like how you are going to-
Yes.
-running down Blast Furnace No.5,
Yes
-then ramping up Blast Furnace No.6. I guess that one month give you enough time to commission FY 2026 from engineering perspective like-
Yes.
-smoothly.
Yes. They will do all of the pre-work that they can, then they will basically blow in the relined blast furnace. Hopefully, it will occur early in the half, although there is a lot of moving parts. What we will do in November at the AGM is we will give an update then as to the timetable. We will have a much clearer view then on the exact timetable for the transition.
Great. That will be helpful. Can I squeeze in last question about your U.S. business, the BCP? BCP guided 1/3 higher than the second half. I am wondering how much is due to your turnaround strategy. Are you gaining market share, gaining volume? And how much is due to better demand in U.S.? You mentioned a couple of times that the demand is solid in U.S., which probably led to better coating pricing or coating margin. I am just trying to think how you think about your turnaround strategy to continue, or it is just that overall, the industry, the U.S. steel industry, is solid. Thank you.
Just to be clear, the reporting segment and the outlook segment is for BCPNA. It is not just BCP. So there are three businesses that sit within that, and there is a broadly equal uplift across each component of those businesses. So that includes the buildings business, BlueScope Buildings, so Butler, Varco Pruden. It is the Steelscape business, Steelscape ASC that sits on the West Coast and the BCP business. And the BCP business, that is much more around operational improvements in the business. It is not off the back of growing market share. It is fundamentally improving the performance of the underlying assets.
Great. Good to hear. Thank you so much, Tania. I will pass it on.
Thanks, Chen.
Your next question comes from Brook Campbell-Crawford with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks, and thanks for taking my questions. Just on the U.S. pricing environment. You talked about the fixed price contracts, which is helpful. But just on the shorter term, almost spot volume, I guess, things that are on like a one-month lag. How are you seeing the sort of discounts to the benchmarks playing out? Is it tightening up through the course of this year and at the moment, just given, I guess, service center inventory is pretty low and lead times are sort of ticking up a bit. Any commentary around that would be good. Thanks.
Thanks, Brook. What I'd say is it's stable. It's in line with longer-term history. I think the discounts elevate during uncertain times, but there's nothing really uncertain around the current strong prices. So I would say relatively stable, Brook.
Okay, that's helpful. Tania, maybe just a follow-up. You mentioned earlier on some options for growth in the U.S. buildings business and in Asia capacity as well. You mentioned that in your response to another analyst's question. Do you mind just providing a little bit of color around the two of those would be good. Thanks.
We just think there's some relatively low capital options to free up a bit more capacity and get some more throughput through our facilities in North America at buildings. We're actively looking at some options there. When I look at Asia, when I look at the performance of those businesses there, we've actually got one metal coating line that's mothballed, another one that's reasonably inactive. It wouldn't take much effort to restart those metal coating lines. We've also got some in-line painting capability that we're thinking about doing some modifications to. Again, that gives us some relatively low capital opportunities to continue to grow that business. Again, I think that that business where we've got a fantastic position across every major Southeast Asian economy. We've been at it for decades. We understand what it takes to be successful there.
All of those items that I mentioned, they're all within that capital envelope that David mentioned.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Brook.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Tania Archibald for closing remarks.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. I know you have got very busy days, and we look forward to catching up with you all individually over the coming week.