Thank you for standing by, welcome to the Capral Limited FY22 results investor webinar. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please enter it into the ask a question box and click submit. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Tony Dragicevich, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Capral's full year results presentation. I'm Tony Dragicevich, the CEO of Capral, and I'm joined this morning by Tertius Campbell, our CFO. It's pleasing to be able to share with you a strong set of financial results for the 2022 year. Before we go into the detail, I'd like to do a quick introduction to the Capral business for those of you that are here first time. On page two of the presentation, we have a summary of our business. Capral is Australia's leading supplier of aluminum extrusion and rolled products. We're the largest extrusion manufacturer in Australia, with six manufacturing plants, eight extrusion presses, producing with an annual capacity around 65,000 tons. We're also Australia's largest importer and distributor of aluminum rolled products.
Together with our extrusion products, we distribute aluminium through eight trade centers and eight distribution centers and 14 trade centers nationally. Our key markets are residential building, commercial construction, and a variety of industrial segments. At around 25% share of the Australian market. Turnover in the last 12 months is a bit under AUD 700 million. Total assets, AUD 450 million and over 1,000 employees. Okay. Let's turn to the agenda for today. I'm gonna run through the financial highlights for the year. Tertius will run through the detailed financials, and then I'll come back and talk about our high-level strategies and outlook and guidance for 2023. Turning to the next page, just in summary, our full year highlights.
Capral produced a record full-year underlying earnings driven by improved sales mix from growth in high value sales channels and higher productivity from investments in our manufacturing facilities. In particular, the restructuring that was undertaken in Bremer Park, our largest manufacturing site, in 2019. In 2021, we saw demand reach extreme levels, driven by housing market and import supply chain disruption, bringing more supply back on to local manufacturing. We started off 2022 with a huge order book, and we delivered a record first half as a result. Demand has softened or did soften in the second half of 2022, but remained pretty solid. We will discuss detail later about the balance of the year. Let's turn to page 5 and run through the performance highlights for the year.
Very pleased to present a record result, a second consecutive one for Capral. This one was achieved on 71,800 tons, which was 6% lower than last year. However, our sales revenue, driven by record high aluminum prices, lifted 17% to a bit over AUD 690 million. Producing an underlying EBITDA of AUD 62.2 million, which was up 10% on last year, and I said, driven by improved sales mix and margin in particular. Underlying EBIT of AUD 40.8 million, up 13%, and all that delivering an underlying earnings per share at AUD 1.96 per share, up 9% on 2021. This allowed us to declare a final dividend of AUD 0.50 per share, fully franked, taking our total dividend for the 2022 year to AUD 0.70 per share.
Strong balance sheet with net cash at the end of December of AUD 24.9 million. Our net tangible assets per share at AUD 9.14 a share, up 14% on the same period, on the same time last year. Very proud to announce a exceptional safety performance for Capral in 2022, with only 4.3 total reportable injury frequency rate, well down on the same period last year. Well below the peer average for other building products, listed building products companies of 9.8. An exceptional year on the safety front for Capral. Turn to page six to talk about our sales channels and industry exposure. Happy to start at the bottom left of that slide. Capral's volume is split between extrusion and rolled products.
Extrusion is clearly at 85% of our total volume, our main product line, which we manufacture here in Australia. We also import aluminium rolled, which is sheet and plate, to support our, particularly our industrial, sales business. Our channels to market, in the last 12 months, 56% of our volume went directly from our extrusion plants to our large customers. The balance of our volume, the 44% of our volume went through our distribution centers, of which, extruded aluminium made up 29% of our total volume and rolled product 15%. One of the big changes this year and one of the reasons for our improved profitability is that we put more volume through the higher value, channels.
In particular, our distribution volumes increased to 29% of our total volume as opposed to 26% for 2021. That's a lift. Extruded aluminium made up 29% of our total volume and rolled product 15%. One of the big changes this year and one of the reasons for our improved profitability is that we put more volume through the higher value channels. In particular, our distribution volumes increased to 29% of our total volume as opposed to 26% for 2021. That's a lift in volume to our building systems and our industrial and our direct industrial channels, which helped lift our overall margins and profitability for the 2022 year.
In terms of industry exposure, clearly the residential housing market at 46% is the largest single driver of volume in our business. Commercial construction represents 11%, the industrial markets at 43% of our total volume are also a significant part of our business. The key markets here for us are transport, marine and other, and a number of other manufacturing sectors. In terms of our volume seasonality, unusually, in 2022, our second half was lower than our first half, our first half of the year was a record year driven by very, very strong and buoyant housing markets through 2021. Relative to other years, you can still see that the second half of 2022 produced good volumes.
In terms of our volume seasonality, unusually, in 2022, our second half was lower than our first half, but our first half of the year was a record year driven by very, very strong and buoyant housing markets through 2021. Relative to other years, you can still see that the second half of 2022 produced good volumes. Overall for the year, volume was down 6%, and that softer volume was primarily came out of reduced volume to other aluminium resellers and solar rail distributors who returned some of their share back to imports as those supply chain problems eased.
Overall for the year, volume was down 6%, and that softer volume was primarily came out of reduced volume to other aluminium resellers and solar rail distributors who returned some of their share back to imports as those supply chain problems eased. Also the softer housing market partially offset by ongoing infrastructure investment in commercial projects. Turning to page 7, where we speak about the residential market, which is our largest individual segment. The residential market has slowed from its record high of dwelling dimensions in 2021. Or the latest estimate, and we're obviously very close to being published, at 190,000 starts in 2022, down 18% on the previous record high of 2021.
When you see that graph on the right-hand side of the page, the green parts of the graph or the dark green represents standalone detached housing. The light green represents multi-res low-rise, and the blue bar represents multi-res high-rise. Capral's volume is mainly aligned to detached and/or low-rise dwellings, which obviously the green shaded bits in that graph, and you can see they're quite stand out that 2021 was by far and away a record year for the key volume drivers of our business. Those starts have come off in 2022, and the latest forecast or the December forecast received from BIS Oxford suggested that the 2023 numbers would remain reasonably steady to 2022 dwelling starts. That remains to be seen.
You can clearly see there that the housing market has come off its highs, which were driven or record highs in 2021, which is driven by obviously the lower interest rates in that year, government incentives, and that really saw a real kick on into that market. That pipeline of work is continuing as we speak today and will last at least into the second half of the 2023 year. Our pipeline is emptying out. Turning to the next slide, we just want to showcase a couple of featured projects that our products ended up in or our aluminum extrusions ended up in in the 2022 year. Top left, a high-end residential home, with windows and doors that were produced, or Schüco windows and doors produced by using Capral Extrusion.
We are the exclusive agent for Schüco in Australia. Top right-hand is a log cabin in New South Wales, utilizing Capral commercial windows and window and door systems. Bottom left, the Tasman, Parliament Square in Tasmania. A commercial building produced by one of our large fabricators down there, CWD Custom Windows using Capral commercial curtain wall. Bottom right-hand, the Anneliese Houston Centre at the Fenella Wells, Girsel in Victoria. By one of our very important customers, BT Windows down in Victoria, using Capral commercial window designs and Capral extrusion. Just some examples of some of the featured residential and commercial projects our product, our products featured in in 2022.
Turning to the next page where we address the industrial sector, which is also the second largest and a very big sector for Capral. As you can see there, our volume slowed in the second half of 2022, but still remains strong relative to prior years. Most of that volume drop, well all of that volume drop in 2022, was a reduction in volume to both solar rail distributors and to other aluminium resellers. Our sales and volumes into our core end user customer base, both marine, industrial construction, general manufacturing and transport, continued to be strong in 2022, and we see that sector remaining pretty robust in the year ahead as well. On the right-hand side of that page, we talk about the transport market, which is our single largest industrial market.
You can see there that the bottom of that page, the graph representing new truck and van builds for 2022 was a record year. All of our large truck building customers have a pretty full order book right through to 2023. That's a positive sign for that industry. Just turning to the next page where we highlight some recent Capral industrial projects, just to give you some idea of the vast array of industries that Capral's industrial products end up. Top left-hand corner is a playground equipment produced by a customer of ours in Queensland called WillPlay, and they produce right throughout Australia, a number of playgrounds, children's playgrounds utilizing aluminum in their, in their manufacturing process. Top left, right-hand corner.
HSP Ute Lids and Canopies, our Victorian customer, producing utilities in this case, for a range of 4x4 vehicles throughout Australia. Bottom left-hand corner is a recreation vessel produced by one of our large customers, Kirby Marine. Bottom right-hand corner, we'll just spend a little bit of time here. Vawdrey are one of Australia's largest truck body builders in Victoria.
This year, Capral has developed a Crafted with Capral series of five-minute videos and print media showcasing Capral's or some of Capral's key industrial customers. This material, these videos and print media are used by us and our customers in both digital and print marketing. We now have a video and print media showcasing Capral's or some of Capral's key industrial customers. This material, these videos and print media are used by us and our customers in both digital and print marketing. We now have a video, one of those videos, and this is only a shortened version of it, so it's only one, I think, about a 90-second video, just to give you an idea of what we do with our Crafted with Capral series. This is...
I'd like now to introduce Mick Vawdrey, the owner of Vawdrey Australia.
I believe quality is the most important thing, I still go out and check through trailers in the yard. We try and get our customers to come and go through the factory. It blows them away because everything is done in-house, so we can show them every part of that trailer is being made here. We use a varied amount of aluminium and a lot. Every roof on every trailer is aluminium. All the extrusions on your dry freight or your refrigerated, they're all aluminium. It looks great. Doesn't deteriorate. It's light, strong. Really, it's fit for the purpose. Why? Because everything is done in-house, so we can show them every part of that trailer is being made here. We use a varied amount of aluminium and a lot. Every roof on every trailer is aluminium.
All the extrusions on your dry freight or your refrigerated, they're all aluminum. It looks great. Doesn't deteriorate. It's light, strong. Really, it's fit for the purpose. We've been using Capral and working with Capral for in excess of 20 years. We need something special, they do it for us. You can see by the quality of the product, second to none.
This is a short extract of one of our Crafted with Capral case studies to give you some insight into some of our marketing material and also into insight into one of our largest industrial customers in Australia, Vawdrey. I'd like now to hand over to Tertius Campbell, our CFO, to run through our full year financials.
Thanks. Thanks, Tony. Morning, everybody. I agree with Tony. It's a very pleasing result indeed. Capral delivered another very strong performance. Our integrated value chain benefited from the lower but still relatively high volume, good asset utilization, strict cost control, and disciplined capital expenditure. Overall, the key financial outcomes for the year were strong earnings, a solid balance sheet, and a comfortable cash position. If you turn to page 12, the profit and loss, you can see that Capral's underlying EBITDA at AUD 62 million was 10% better than prior year. The 6% lower sales volume had a AUD 2.6 million negative impact on our earnings. The higher LME price of aluminum, combined with better mix and some improvement in our margin, led to a revenue growth of 17% on last year, delivering a bottom line improvement of around AUD 12 million.
The relatively high demand ensured good utilization of our production and our warehouse facilities, providing ongoing operational leverage. These gains were unfortunately partly offset by the inflationary impact of around 4.5% on our non-metal costs. Around costing us about AUD 8.7 million. Cost savings and other efficiency projects delivered around AUD 4 million to address some of these inflationary impacts. Meaning the underlying EBIT of AUD 40.8 million, at 13% improvement on last year. In line with the expectations of sustained strong future earnings, Capral recognized an additional deferred tax asset of AUD 8.4 million during the year. Leaving our net profit after tax of AUD 40.8 million, just shy or AUD 2 million below last year's, which is mainly due to the negative LME revaluation of AUD 2 million.
The underlying earnings per share, AUD 1.96, AUD 1.96 per share, grew by 9%, supporting the payment of a final dividend of AUD 0.50 per share. Turning to page 13. Capral's overall financial position remains strong, and we ended the year with a net cash position of AUD 24.9 million on the balance date. That's after accounting for a few trade loans. Receivables, levels remained elevated due to the higher LME, despite excellent metrics on days outstanding below last year at 48 days. In addition, the high rolled stock, combined with the rebuild of our low extrusion stocks, done at record metal prices, increased inventory by AUD 25 million.
The receivable levels remained elevated due to the higher LME, despite excellent metrics on days outstanding below last year at 48 days. In addition, the high rolled stock, combined with the rebuild of our low extrusion stocks, done at record metal prices, increased inventory by AUD 25 million. Our overall working capital requirement increased around AUD 47 million year-over-year and is expected to moderate over the next 6 to 12 months, obviously depending on sales levels and aluminum input costs in 2023. Capral has, at balance date, around AUD 8 million franking credits available for distribution, of which AUD 3.8 million will be distributed with the dividend next month.
A further AUD 130 million accumulated tax losses are still available for deferred tax asset recognition in future periods. Turning to page 14. Our cash e-earnings was impacted mainly by working capital increases, as explained, tributed with the dividend next month. A further AUD 130 million accumulated tax losses are still available for deferred tax asset recognition in future periods. Turning to page 14. Our cash e-earnings was impacted mainly by working capital increases, as explained earlier. This led to low, but still positive operating cash flow. In addition to the AUD 10 million spend as planned on the CapEx program, as outlined earlier in the year, AUD 12 million was returned to shareholders through dividend distributions during the year. Various short-term loans were entered into to fund the increased working capital.
Most of these have been repaid, with the remainder to be repaid as cash gets released from inventory and receivables over the next six months. In closure, the final dividend of AUD 0.50 per share will be paid in September. The board has decided into to fund the increased working capital. Most of these have been repaid, with the remainder to be repaid as cash gets released from inventory and receivables over the next six months. In closure, the final dividend of AUD 0.50 per share will be paid in September. The board has decided not to activate the DRP for this distribution. Tony, that basically covers most of the financials. Back to you.
Thank you, Tertius. We'll now move to the next page and talk about, at a high level, our strategy and then our outlook for the year ahead. Major focuses has been for the last three or four years is to drive the return on the investments that we're making and to keep improving our long-term competitive position. Our three key pillars are building on our strengths, optimizing what we do, and growing for the future. We turn to page 16.
In terms of our manufacturing operations, we will continue to focus on process improvement programs in all our extrusion plants. The Smithfield plant we acquired at the beginning of 2021 is now running, when we acquired it was running on 1 shift. It had been for many, many years. Now it is currently running at three shifts, and we continue to improve and bring that plant up to Capral's productivity standards. Bremer Park, our largest manufacturing facility based in Queensland, which underwent a significant restructure in 2019, we continue to focus on process improvement in that plant and deliver greater returns.
Throughout our manufacturing operations, we do spend around AUD 4 million-AUD 5 million worth of maintenance capital per year to ensure the ongoing reliability and efficiencies of our plants. Extrusion presses have a very long economic life, around 30-35 years, providing you look after them properly, which we do. We're progressively upgrading our shop floor control systems to a common platform, a very modern platform, which helps us become more efficient in improving our productivity around all of our manufacturing operations. Just over half of our plants have been upgraded and the final couple of plants will be done this year. In January, last month, we completed the first stage of the upgrade of our Penrith extrusion plant.
Rebuilt the press, replaced all the hydraulics in the plant, plus all the electrical, low voltage and high voltage systems. A significant project took place over eight weeks. Shut down at the end of November and up and running last week of January. Successfully commissioned and operational as we speak, back to three shifts running and almost back to full production levels today. You know, a massive undertaking by the Capral engineering team and a tremendous result and a real asset for the business going forward.
The second stage of that project is the new billet furnace, which will be around AUD 1 million capital investment, which will take place over the Christmas period later this year. Our distribution business during 2022, we reduced our new window and door product range and our new system software. That's been very well received from the market and we look forward to growth in that area of our business in the years ahead. We enhanced our product range by the purchase of the EDGE High Thermal Performance window systems range from a Victorian competitor, you know, Aluminium Industries.
We've made that acquisition, around mid-year, and we continue to develop those products into the future as there's higher demand for better performing, from a thermal perspective, window systems throughout Australia, particularly the colder climates. We installed a new paint line in our New South Wales distribution center in the final quarter of last year. It's currently undergoing commissioning. We expect to have it up and running in the next three or four weeks. This is the first time that Capral will have a paint line in New South Wales, and that will help deliver a better quality, a better service, and also reduce freight costs in getting painted product to our customers in New South Wales. Our overall goal, and has been for a number of years, is to grow Capral's direct distribution channel.
That's both through our distribution business and directly through our manufacturing plants as well. That will deliver higher value and margin to Capral as an organization. In terms of sales activities, we just spoke about our Crafted with Capral videos and print material. We continue to invest in technology to improve our sales effectiveness. We are doing another upgrade, just starting another upgrade process to our website and redeveloping our e-store to ensure they remain at the leading edge of digital marketing and digital presence. We continue to seek opportunities to expand our regional footprint. We've recently acquired two trade centers, one in North Brisbane and one in Wollongong to add to our extensive trade center network throughout Australia.
Just in terms of some of the key markets, solar, is a very, very big market, but it's very competitive. The number of extrusions are limit, are very small, therefore they're high volume. It's traditionally been the domain of imports. Capral and other local extruders did pick up a share of this market through COVID when supply chains were disrupted, and we are fighting hard to retain a share of that market. Defense. Capral is an approved supplier to major defense projects, and there's a number of those being undertaken with both the offshore patrol vessels and submarines coming up. Cladding systems. We work with a number of cladding system suppliers to address the new fire standards and recladding opportunities that are becoming available in the market.
Share of this market through COVID when supply chains were disrupted, and we are fighting hard to retain a share of that market. Defense. Capral is an approved supplier to major defense projects, and there's a number of those being undertaken with both the offshore patrol vessels and submarines coming up. Cladding systems. We work with a number of cladding system suppliers to address the new fire standards and recladding opportunities that are becoming available in the market, and those opportunities are currently presenting. In terms of imports and anti-dumping, Capral, as you all know, has been at the forefront of leading the fight against dumped aluminium extrusion in Australia now for over a decade.
Our focus will be this year in terms of retaining the market share gains against imports, particularly on large end user industrial customers that we took back over the fight against dumped aluminium extrusion in Australia now for over a decade. Our focus will be this year in terms of retaining the market share gains against imports, particularly on large end user industrial customers that we took back over the last few years. We'll continue to fight the fight for fair trade on behalf of the overall aluminium extrusion industry in Australia. We've appealed the decision to discontinue measures on Malaysia and Vietnam. That's currently under review. We've applied for a variable measure review on Chinese imports that which is currently underway. We're looking for an increase in the dumping duty rate on aluminium extrusions out of China.
We have measures in place through to 2025, but we have the ability to review the rates midway through that process, which we've undertaken. Decision to discontinue measures on Malaysia and Vietnam, and that's currently under review. We've applied for a variable measure review on Chinese imports, that which is currently underway. We're looking for an increase in the dumping duty rate on aluminium extrusions out of China. We have measures in place through to 2025, but we have the ability to review the rates midway through that process, which we've undertaken. Turning to page 17 and just talk about our sustainability platform and what we're doing within our business at Capral. We developed an active sustainability committee in 2020.
We set a target of net zero by 2050, and we've developed our roadmap to achieve it. Our focus is on the four main pillars, which is minimization of energy waste and paper in our organization. We've also developed an ethical purchasing policy, whereby all of the products that we produce, we ensure come from ethical suppliers. During 2022, I'll just run through some of the highlights. There's been quite a number this year. We entered into the first ever scrap recycling arrangement with an Australian smelter, and that was with the Tomago Aluminium Smelter in Newcastle. We're looking to double the amount of volume being recycled through that agreement in 2023. We've invested in solar energy on our Campbellfield site, and that investment is currently producing around 15% of the site's energy consumption.
We replaced all of the high bay warehouse in our huge Bremer Park facility, reducing our energy consumption on that site quite significantly. We have joined the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative, which through that agreement in 2023. We've invested in solar energy on our Campbellfield site, and that investment is currently producing around 15% of the site's energy consumption. We replaced all of the high bay warehouse in our huge Bremer Park facility, reducing our energy consumption on that site quite significantly. We have joined the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative, which is an international certification body focusing on aluminium chain of custody, and we'll be undertaking an auditing process to achieve that chain of custody certification in March this year.
That, combined with, our introduction of low-carbon aluminium, which I'll talk about in a minute, will help us in the market in terms of being able to provide lower carbon aluminium options to the customers. We've also joined MECLA, which is Materials, which is a local organization, standing for Materials Embodied Carbon, in March this year. That, combined with, our introduction of low-carbon aluminium, which I'll talk about in a minute, will help us in the market in terms of being able to provide lower carbon aluminium options to the customers. We've also joined MECLA, which is Materials, which is a local organization, standing for Materials Embodied Carbon Leader Alliance.
This is really around reducing the amount of carbon in the built environment in Australian construction, and using, particularly for us, using more sustainable aluminium in those projects. Late in 2022, we introduced LocAl Green and LocAl Super Green, which is a recycled, and hydro-powered sourced aluminium, as lower carbon aluminium options across Capral's locally manufactured extruded products. Together with ASI certification, which we hope to have in the next few months. We'll be able to provide customers with that lower carbon alternative.
In addition to those initiatives, we also had in the manufacturing plants introduced variable speed drives into Penrith with the, with the upgrade, reducing that plant's energy consumption by 20%. We've also introduced latest generation multi-zone billet heating containers at five extrusion pre-presses, reducing the energy consumption on those presses by around 15%. Quite a number of sustainability projects active within the business that will continue in the-
Quite a number of sustainability projects active within the business that will continue in the years ahead as we head down the journey of net zero. Turning to the next slide. Focusing on LME and aluminium costs. Metal costs hit record highs in the second quarter of 2022, and you can see on that graph there, which shows that evidently. Well above previous highs in metal costs over the last five years and probably and certainly there, it was a record price here in Australia hit in the second quarter of 2022. In addition to LME, the average billet premiums increased by 89% during the year due to a significant increase in smelter billet premiums at the beginning of 2022.
In terms of LME increased sorry, 22% during the year, to AUD 3,900 a ton due to high global demand. The international LME price impacted by global supply factors, not the least of which, Russia's invasion of Ukraine at, in the beginning of 2021, which saw metal price or LME go on a run on the threat of sanctions being imposed on Russia, which is the second largest aluminium producer in the world. Those sanctions did not eventuate. LME started to slide back or come back a bit in the third quarter of the year and in the fourth quarter of the year, and is now relatively stable. We do expect LME to fall in the second quarter, in the second half of 2023.
Currently, as you can see, they're still at relatively high numbers compared to where it has been historically. As Tertius mentioned, that's had a significant impact on our working capital requirements in the last 12 months. Turning to the next page, and I'll finish up before we hand over to questions, and we'll talk about the outlook and our earnings guidance for 2023. The residential building market, which has been well spoken about in the media, is forecast to remain on par with 2022. That may be a little optimistic. These forecasts were produced in December by BIS Oxford. With continual interest rate rises that house is forecast to remain on par with 2022. That may be a little optimistic.
These forecasts were produced in December by BIS Oxford. With in-continual interest rate rises that house, new house sales are slowing, and slowing quite quickly. That will may see a, their pipeline of work start to tail off at the end of 2023. We are however confident our other key markets, both commercial and industrial, are expected to remain at relatively high levels throughout the year ahead. The reseller volumes, which we enjoyed in 2021 will remain subdued as those import supply chains have normalized. We will retain our share of the business that we've won directly with large customers that came back from import supply to local the year ahead.
The reseller volumes which we enjoyed in 2021 will remain subdued as those import supply chains have normalized. We will retain our share of the business that we've won directly with large customers that came back from import supply to local supply over 2020 and 2021. As I just spoke about, LME peaked at records in levels in 2022. We do expect it to fall moderately in the second half of 2023. Inflationary cost pressures, as Tertius discussed a short while ago, continue to impact, especially in the year ahead, with employee costs, which we're looking to manage quite carefully. Energy costs, particularly gas prices, have gone up significantly.
Packaging costs. We use a lot of timber in our packaging, and those costs have more than doubled over the past 12 months. Everyone will be aware of the, certainly, the high fuel costs, driving freight costs up as well. Quite significant inflationary pressures, far and away and above what we've seen previously, have led us to announce a price increase on the 1st of February to recover these costs. It's been the highest price increase that we've announced certainly in the last 10 years. We're working through with our customers to pass these increases on this year.
Absent any unforeseen events, we expect for our EBITDA in 2023 to be in the range previously, have led us to announce a price increase on the first of February. To recover these costs, it's been the highest price increase that we've announced certainly in the last 10 years. We're working through with our customers to pass these increases on this year. Absent any unforeseen events, we expect for our EBITDA in 2023 to be in the range of AUD 54 million-AUD 58 million, slightly down on last year, which was a record year. A net profit after tax in the range of AUD 26 million-AUD 30 million, delivering an earnings per share between AUD 1.46 and AUD 1.69 per share.
Our working capital forecast is to return to more historical levels, increasing our free cash flow in 2023. CapEx to be broadly in line with last year at AUD 10 million. On this basis, Capral would be in a position to continue the payment of dividends in the range of AUD 26 million-AUD 30 million, delivering an earnings per share between AUD 1.46 and AUD 1.69 per share. Our working capital forecast is to return to more historical levels, increasing our free cash flow in 2023. CapEx to be broadly in line with last year at AUD 10 million. On this basis, Capral would be in a position to continue the payment of dividends. We'll now throw back to Harmony for any questions that anyone on the call may have.
We'll do our best to answer them.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type it into the ask a question box and hit Submit. We'll pause for your webcast questions to register.
Do we have any questions [crosstalk]
Nothing yet.
Nothing yet. Okay. Must be all very self-explanatory. Okay. Doesn't look like we've got any questions come through.
There's one.
Oh, hang on. We do have one.
Yeah. We just received a question: What has been driving up the billet premiums, and what are the expectations for FY23?
Okay, that's a very good question. The smelted billet premiums are set at the end of each year for the next four months. Our billet premium negotiations take place in November each year, and they come into effect for the January to December shipments in the subsequent year. The billet premiums that we saw in 2022 were set at the end of 2021, when there was a huge global demand for aluminium on the back of governments or certainly governments in most of the world stimulating their economies post-COVID. We saw base billet premiums go up dramatically. In fact, they more than doubled. That situation has changed for this year.
What has kept premiums, has changed somewhat, but they haven't come down to the extent that they've gone up. They've come, they've come down, come off slightly, but high international shipping costs, at the time these premiums were being negotiated, have seen premiums come off slightly, for 2023. That's gonna be offset by lower scrap recovery prices. On balance, our net metal cost, if you take the slightly lower and come down to the extent that they've gone up, they've come, they've come down, come off slightly. High international shipping costs, at the time these premiums were being negotiated, have seen premiums come off slightly, for 2023.
That's gonna be offset by lower scrap recovery prices. On balance, our net metal cost, if you take the slightly lower premiums, but the less, the lower scrap costs we're gonna get for our production scrap this year, will mean that the overall impact of that will be pretty much neutral in the 2023 year. Hopefully that explains it.
Next question is: What is the significance of the scrap recycling agreement? An example, where was your scrap going before this?
Okay. Another good question. All of the production scrap, pretty much all aluminium being recycled, for recycling in Australia is shipped offshore. Australia does not have any significant scrap recycling capability for aluminium in Australia. Up until this agreement, the vast majority of aluminium scrap was collected and shipped to Asia, in particular, and New Zealand. We ship some of ours to New Zealand for remelting and recycling. This agreement with the Tomago Aluminium is the first of its kind. We also hope to have a similar arrangement come into play with the Rio Tinto smelter, which is our major supplier up in Queensland, perhaps later this year. It is significant.
It is, it doesn't really generate us any additional income, but it is, it is a, you know, it's a move in the right direction in terms of our sustainability and allows us to also make available a greener or a super green aluminium product for recycled product available for sale to customers here in Australia.
Next question is: Does higher working capital this year as a result of the higher inventory, mean lower margins next year given the LME prices?
No. We've put our prices have been increased to reflect the higher cost of product in stock. As you can see from our results in 2023, we've been able to recover those higher aluminium prices and maintain our margins. We expect that will continue into the year ahead.
Next question is: How are you likely to be placed with dividend franking, assuming you will be able to pay dividends going forward?
We have franking credits in place to see us through pretty much to 2023 dividends, should they remain at current levels of dividend payment. Once those franking credits have disappeared or been used up, we will then
Next question is, how are you likely to be placed for dividend franking, assuming you will be able to pay dividends going forward?
We have franking credits in place to see us through pretty much to 2023 dividends, should they remain at current levels of dividend payment. Once those franking credits have disappeared or been used up, then we won't have any franking credits until such time as we become a taxpayer again. The fact is, Tertius has mentioned we've got AUD 300 million worth of tax losses to utilize that there won't be any time soon. We will be looking at other forms of capital management, in 2024 and 2025.
How important is the volume of AI coming from Malaysia and Vietnam? When do you expect a response on your appeal?
The response on the appeal is overdue. It's been pushed back until May this year, when we'll find out, which is disappointing. The Anti-Dumping Commission is running months and months behind schedule in terms of its reviews because of resourcing requirements and the fact it hasn't been able to travel due to COVID to a number of these countries to investigate. The Malaysia and Vietnam imports are a relatively small proportion of the imported volume. I think they make up less than 10% of the imports coming into Australia. It's not overly material, but we need to be vigilant on all fronts in terms of anti-dumping, because as we've seen in the past, when we close one door, another door can open.
Currently it's not a big impact, but we just need to be vigilant.
What's your plan around ESG in the years ahead?
As you can see from the presentation, we've been very active on this front over the last few years. Our biggest carbon footprint relates to the energy that we use in our manufacturing operations, we can do so much in terms of becoming more efficient in our usage of electricity and gas by having more modern and up-to-date equipment to minimize the usage of those two forms of energy. You know, rolling out solar on our facilities with our landlords as part of that. However, we are largely dependent on the decarbonization of the grid to move to that net zero by 2050.
We're doing our bit, as you can see by all these initiatives we've got underway, not just in energy reduction, but also waste, managing waste as well. We're very active.
There's no more further questions, Tony.
Okay. Thank you for those questions. I think they're all really good ones. I'd like to just conclude today's presentation with thanking you for your attendance, and those of you that are shareholders, thanking you for your ongoing support. It's very satisfying to present such a strong set of results over the last three years and the last two years in particular, delivering outstanding profit results, far and away what Capral has done in the past. We know we've come off the back of, you know, very strong housing market that stimulated the economy. We're very confident the company is well-positioned to withstand any downturn, which obviously there is gonna be some in 2023. We're well-positioned.
The business is well managed, it's sound, and we've got very good foundations in place. We're looking forward to the year ahead. It's gonna be challenging, but it's one that we think we're up for. Thanks very much for your attendance today, and wish you all the best. Thank you.
Thank you.