Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX:CIP)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Aug 14, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by, welcome to the Centuria Industrial REIT FY 2023 results presentation. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star, one again. For operator assistance throughout the call, please press star zero, finally, I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded. Thank you. I'd now like to welcome Mr. Jesse Curtis, Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, to begin the conference. Jesse, over to you.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining Centuria Industrial REIT's full year FY 2023 results presentation. My name is Jesse Curtis, CIP's Fund Manager. Joining me today is CIP's Assistant Fund Manager, Michael Ching. Additionally, Centuria's Head of Funds Management, Ross Lees, and Group Head of Investor Relations, Tim Mitchell, are also present. I would like to commence today's presentation with an acknowledgement of country. I am joining you from the lands of the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. Centuria manages property throughout Australia and New Zealand and pays its respects to the traditional owners of the land in each country, to their unique culture, and to their elders, past and present. A robust industrial market and well-constructed portfolio of infill industrial assets resulted in CIP successfully executing significant leasing transactions and delivering value-add projects throughout the year.

Rental growth again substantially accelerated against a backdrop of record low vacancy and consistent tenant demand. Subsequently, the REIT benefited from market-leading re-leasing spreads. CIP's balance sheet was further strengthened, led by strategic transactions that diversified its sources of lending and maintained gearing. As a result of CIP's strong performance, we delivered financial year 2023 FFO and distributions in line with guidance. Earlier today, we published various documents on the ASX, including this results presentation, which we will step you through now. The presentation provides an overview of CIP's portfolio, its financial results, and operational performance, as well as FY 2024 outlook. Let's begin on slide four. CIP is an externally managed REIT that forms part of the Centuria Capital Group family, a real estate fund manager operating under the ASX code CNI.

Centuria is a strong supporter of CIP and provides significant benefits from the group's long and successful track record in property funds management. Slide five outlines CIP's unchanged strategy: to deliver reliable income and capital growth from a high-quality portfolio consisting of only industrial assets across Australia. Our vision is to remain as Australia's leading domestic pure-play industrial REIT. Slide six details CIP's key metrics. The portfolio, as of June 30, was valued at AUD 3.8 billion, with high occupancy of 98%. Having delivered guidance, CIP achieved a 12-month total shareholder return of 16.4%, double the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index. Turning to slide seven, which outlines CIP's FY 2023 strategy execution. Our active portfolio management approach was again demonstrated with over 180,000 sq m leased.

Most significantly, re-leasing spreads accelerated considerably, averaging 30% for the year, recording an average of 37% during the second half of financial year 2023. The portfolio remains well-positioned, with a high East Coast weighting and majority of the portfolio within infill industrial markets, where demand for industrial space remains the highest. Over 1/3 of the portfolio expires over the next three years, providing a strong growth driver. Market rental growth and leasing success also provided buoyancy to valuations, substantially offsetting capitalization rate expansion.

Proactive capital management through issuance of exchangeable notes and divestment of assets fortified the balance sheet, with gearing remaining at the lower end of the target gearing range and a high percentage of debt hedged. Given the strong position of CIP's portfolio, we are pleased to provide FY 2024 FFO guidance of AUD 0.17 per unit and distribution guidance of AUD 0.16 per unit. I will now hand over to Assistant Fund Manager, Michael Ching, to take you through the portfolio overview and financial results.

Michael Ching
Assistant Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Thanks, Jesse. Slide eight shows a snapshot of CIP's portfolio composition and the geographic spread of our assets. As Australia's largest listed pure-play industrial REIT, CIP continues to provide investors with exposure to a 100% industrial-only portfolio of 89 high-quality assets, with over 90% weighting to the strong-performing eastern seaboard markets. 83% of our portfolio is located in core urban infill markets, close to population catchments and limited future supply. CIP's portfolio comprises two strategically constructed sub-portfolios, both providing unique characteristics to deliver returns to unitholders, which I will detail in the next two slides. Turning to slide nine. Our active portfolio represents 80% of CIP's total portfolio. This sub-portfolio enables us to utilize our active in-house management capabilities to execute on value add strategies to generate returns for unitholders.

With a WALE of 4.2 years and approximately 43% of leases expiring over the next three years, these assets provide opportunities to capitalize on the strength of the market and access positive rental reversions. Moving to Slide 10. Our long WALE portfolio accounts for 20% of CIP's total portfolio and consists of two substantial assets, with lease expiries greater than 15 years. These assets are leased to iconic blue-chip tenant customers, providing long-term, secure, reliable income streams. 59% of the income generated from this portfolio is CPI linked and will generate strong growth for the portfolio, with an average rent review of 4.4% for FY 2024. Moving to the FY 2023 financial results on Slide 12. CIP delivered funds from operations of AUD 108.1 million, or AUD 0.17 per unit, in line with guidance.

Gross property income increased by AUD 20.9 million to AUD 220 million, reflecting the growth in the portfolio and strong leasing outcomes achieved during the year. Leasing success contributed to CIP delivering like-for-like NOI growth of 4.4% in FY 2023. The AUD 2.2 million of other income recorded in the year relates to the coupon received on our fund-through development projects at Dandenong and Campbellfield. Higher interest rates resulted in CIP's total interest cost increasing by AUD 20.8 million to AUD 43.9 million in FY 2023. Looking at capital management in more detail on slide 14. CIP undertook several strategic capital management initiatives to further strengthen its balance sheet while increasing diversity across our sources of funding.

We realized AUD 215 million of liquidity through strategic transactions, maintaining gearing at 33.1% as at June 2023, which is at the lower end of our 30%-40% target range. CIP further diversified its capital structure in FY 2023 through the issuance of a AUD 300 million Exchangeable Note. This note issuance, together with AUD 300 million of interest rate swaps entered into the year, increased CIP's hedging profile to 88%, with a weighted average hedge maturity of 2.7 years. CIP has no debt maturing until FY 2025 and over AUD 300 million of available liquidity. CIP's balance sheet remains robust and provides ample headroom to our debt covenants. Slide 15 provides a case study on our proactive capital management approach through our Exchangeable Note offering in February 2023.

The AUD 300 million notes were issued on a five-year term at an attractive fixed rate coupon of 3.95%. This compares favorably to traditional financing terms, which have an all-in cost of debt of approximately 6% at present. Additionally, the issuance further diversifies CIP's capital structure while increasing CIP's interest rate hedging profile. The notes have a five-year term with an option to be exchanged into CIP units in 2028 at an initial conversion price of AUD 4.16 per unit. The initial conversion price represented a 2% premium to CIP's prevailing Net Tangible Assets at the time of issue. This strategic capital management initiative further demonstrates our ongoing commitment to strengthening CIP's balance sheet through current market volatility. I will now hand you back to Jesse to take you through CIP's operational performance over the year.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Thank you, Michael. Portfolio leasing was a key driver of performance during the year. Slide 16 details CIP's leasing success, with over 180,000 sq m, or 14% of the portfolio, leased during the year. Of note, was the 40,500 sq m of leasing completed at our development in Dandenong South, and renewal of major tenant customers, BlueScope and Yamaha, in our Queensland portfolio. I'd like to reiterate re-leasing spreads accelerated on the back of rapidly rising rents, with average re-leasing spreads of 37% for the second half of the year, up from 19% in the first half. For FY 2023, average re-leasing spreads were 30%. Of note, is 47,000 sq m of financial year 2023 leasing volume that is yet to have rent determined due to tenants exercising options.

We expect the resulting rent to exceed FY 2023 average re-leasing spreads. CIP's strong re-leasing spreads can be attributable to our long-standing portfolio construction strategy, focusing on functional assets in key urban infill locations where tenant demand is highest. Looking forward, the portfolio offers near-term mark-to-market opportunity, with 36% of the portfolio expiring over the next three years. Slide 17 outlines our high-quality customer base, delivering reliable income streams. Our customer relationships and network effect is continuing to generate tangible portfolio benefits, with average downtime an extremely low 31 days. Additionally, more than 30% of the portfolio is leased to customers with more than 1 site owned by CIP. Over to slide 18. CIP continues to deliver value-add projects, leveraging the location of our assets.

Recently completed projects include 9 Fellowes Court in Tullamarine, Victoria, where repositioning works and strategic leasing were undertaken, and a 66% uplift in value was achieved. Active projects include 616 Boundary Road in Richlands, Queensland, where repositioning works are approaching completion and terms are agreed with a national household name. 30 Fulton Drive in Derrimut is an asset where we have lodged a development application to modernize and expand the area of the facility to maximize the asset's value. Our asset repositioning pipeline provides a key driver of value for CIP unitholders. Extending CIP's value-add activities is our development pipeline, which continues to build. Slide 19 details 40,544 sq m of completed projects and 57,300 sq m of active developments. Both Campbellfield and Canning Vale developments are progressing well, with completion expected in the first half of financial year 2024.

Leasing interest remains strong for both projects. Slide 20 explains our long-standing site consolidation strategy. CIP has now accumulated 12 individual examples of site consolidation opportunities under this strategy that cover a collective 100 hectares of land, or one-third of our portfolio. Most recently, CIP acquired an additional asset neighboring its existing Cooper Plains asset in Queensland, consolidating 4.5 hectares of land in a key Brisbane infill market. Similar to other examples in the portfolio, the site creates critical mass to maximize rent on existing improvements while providing a future site of scale for development optionality. In fact, 100% of assets acquired in FY 2023 were land consolidation strategy acquisitions. Strategic transactions helped underpin NTA and liquidity for CIP's asset base.

In particular, a new strategic partnership with Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing was established, with a 50% interest in eight assets being divested by CIP. Additionally, we secured the direct market divestment of 30 Clay Place for AUD 34.5 million, generating a significant premium to book value. Combined, the transactions were sold on an average yield of 4.5%. Under Centuria's management, CIP has a long track record of capital management and improving portfolio quality through divestments, having completed over AUD 325 million of transactions over 14 individual assets. Turning to valuations on slide 22. During FY 2023, CIP's portfolio Weighted Average Capitalisation Rate expanded 107 basis points to 5.26% on the back of rising interest rates, one of the widest Cap Rates of its peer set.

Reduction in value was primarily concentrated on CIP's Long WALE sub-portfolio, while the active portfolio saw a small increase due to strong market rental growth, offsetting capitalization rate expansion. Over the 12 months to 30 June, valuations adopted an average of 23% increase in market rents. Following valuations, CIP's net tangible assets is AUD 3.96 per unit. Moving to sustainability initiatives on slide 24. CIP is an externally managed REIT, has no staff, and is solely a portfolio of assets. The REIT is managed by Centuria Capital Group and aligns itself to Centuria's sustainability framework. A number of key CIP-specific ESG initiatives implemented during the year include launching a new sustainability target to have zero Scope 2 Emissions by 2028. We also continued our partnership with Healthy Heads, an organization focused on mental health in the transport and logistics industries.

Over to slide 25, which demonstrates how CIP's portfolio is growing with leading green certified assets. More than 50,000 sq m of five-star Green Star certified industrial assets have been delivered to date, and a further 57,000 sq m is under construction. Additionally, CIP participated in the NABERS Warehouse and Cold Store Pilot program to create a tool to measure the efficiency of industrial buildings. Moving to slide 26. Globally, industrial real estate continues to benefit from strong tailwinds. Tenant demand is keeping vacancy rates below the long-term average in major gateway city markets, driving strong rental growth. According to CBRE data, Australia now has the lowest vacancy rate in the world, yet we still provide relatively affordable industrial rents in comparison to other established global markets.

With continued tenant demand and limited supply, the global context demonstrates a long runway of rental growth for industrial rents in Australia. Looking locally on slide 26, seven, industrial rents have continued to climb across all major industrial markets as national vacancy hits another record low. Despite the evolving economic conditions, we are still seeing resilient tenant demand, particularly for infill industrial assets. Transport logistics tenants continued to lead demand as they look to manage inventory levels and respond to e-commerce demand. Manufacturing remains a large contributor to demand, with supply chain resilience and onshoring of operations a continuing trend. Proximity to a large population base has been a key driver for leasing decisions, and this is boosting significant demand for urban infill industrial space.

Tenant customers are looking to minimize delivery times, reduce transportation costs, and provide access to an affordable labor force in a competitive environment. Demand forecasts are expected to continue at a level above the long-term average. However, supply of industrial space is still well short of this demand. 73% of 2023's development supply is pre-committed, leaving a shortfall of only 1 million sq m of uncommitted supply, well short of the level of demand required. This dislocation is expected to continue as slow infrastructure rollout, labor shortages, supply chain disruption, and limited industrial zone land limits the near-term supply. Add to this, sub 1% vacancy, and this is creating strong landlord pricing power to drive further market rental growth.

Moving into financial year 2024, CIP's performance will be driven by three key priorities: continuing to leverage our infill-focused portfolio and high-quality customer base against the strength of the industrial market to drive top-line growth, execute on the embedded value-add opportunities to drive both income and portfolio value, and maintain a proactive and disciplined approach to capital management to reduce volatility in a changing interest rate environment. To conclude, as Australia's largest domestic pure-play industrial REIT, CIP has delivered a strong set of results in FY 2023. Leasing success/market-leading re-leasing spreads and value-add projects continued to be delivered to the benefit of unitholders. Strategic transactions bolstered CIP's balance sheet strength, and whilst the capitalization rate for the portfolio widened, strong leasing and market rental growth provided an offset. Looking to the year ahead, we will continue to monitor and consider domestic and global economic conditions.

Debt remains a headwind, however, having increased materially over the last 12 months. As outlined in this presentation, the operating environment for industrial remains strong, and over financial year 2023, we expect CIP to benefit from its portfolio construction to deliver like-for-like income growth on the back of continued leasing success. For financial year 2024, CIP provides FFO guidance of AUD 0.17 per unit and distribution guidance of AUD 0.16 per unit. Based on the recent trading price, this equates to a distribution yield of 5.1%. Thank you for listening, and at this point, I'll hand the call back to the operator for any questions.

Operator

Thank you, speakers. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad, and we'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Caleb Wheatley from Macquarie Group. Your line is open.

Caleb Wheatley
Head of Consumer Equity Research, Macquarie Group

Good morning, Jesse and Michael. Thank you for the presentation this morning. My first question, just around tenant demand and what you're seeing on that front. We've had some peers potentially flagging, they're beginning to see some softening around the edges. Conscious that direct market is, is very strong at the present, but yeah, just keen to hear of any anecdotes on, on what you're seeing on tenant demand across your major tenant categories, please.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Yeah, look, tenant demand is still extremely strong out there in the market, and, and I think that's, we're certainly seeing that across our portfolio. Now, our portfolio sits mainly in the Infill and Last Mile, Last Kilometre style of assets, and so that's the area of the market we're seeing the highest tenant demand. What we have seen, though, is, is gross takeup in the market down quite significantly. We're probably at about two-thirds of the gross take-up volume we would have seen in comparison to previous years. That's really been a function of a lack of available space for tenants to actually lease. We're still seeing good demand, but certainly, the volume of leasing transactions we're seeing is lower, more so a result of what we're seeing from a vacancy perspective or availability of space and availability of, of supply.

Caleb Wheatley
Head of Consumer Equity Research, Macquarie Group

More specifically around the sort of retail or 3PL space, is there no signal that, you know, given potential for a softening in, in retail sales and, I guess, the broader macro environment, is, is there any indication of, of that potentially tapering off or still strong from what you're seeing?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

I mean, it's, it's still strong. I think again, I go back to the sort of composition of our portfolio, where mainly in urban infill, last mile, sort of oriented, owner of industrial real estate. The demand we're seeing in those areas of the market are very much a lot higher than what you may be seeing on the urban fringe for storage space. I think when you look at where the demand is coming from, from the tenants, transport logistics still make up about 50% of leasing. Manufacturing is around that 15% of leasing. We're still seeing good demand right across-... book, and maybe we don't have four or five tenants vying for the space. We've probably got two or three today, but you can only lease the space to one person at the end of the day.

Caleb Wheatley
Head of Consumer Equity Research, Macquarie Group

Great. That's really helpful. Thank you. My next question was just on the development pipeline and what you're seeing on the returns front there. I'm conscious you've seen some improvement as we went into the first half of 2023, but just keen to hear an updated view on the trajectory of what that, the returns look like across the development pipeline, please.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Yeah, as I said, at the half, you know, Campbellfield, we were looking at delivering a Yield on Cost north of 6% to 6.5% on that particular project. As context, we bought that at the time with an underwrite of a Yield on Cost of 4.5%, so we've probably seen a 200 basis point increase on the basis of market rental growth. Similar situation with our Bannister Road development. You know, we bought that on an initial Yield on Cost of 5.75%. That's widened to now north of 6.5%. We're expecting it to, as we lease those projects, we're probably expecting those to, you know, maybe even come in a little better than those at this point.

Caleb Wheatley
Head of Consumer Equity Research, Macquarie Group

Great. Just given, I guess, the success of these development projects that are coming through, should we be expecting a more material addition on developments going forward? Conscious there's potentially still a little uncertainty around balance sheet, but are you expecting to restock that pipeline in the medium term?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

I think we've always said that we would like to continue some level of value-add activity, annually within this portfolio. Whether that's repositioning works, whether that's full-blown development, right now, over 99% of this portfolio generates income. We're not sitting on a big land bank that we have to work through. We've got highly functional assets sitting on these blocks of land we own, that we can continue to take the benefit out of the re-leasing spreads on. Alternatively, we carry some optionality with some of these sites that, you know, with the balance sheet, its current state and, and any other activities we might do to improve the balance sheet, would provide us with some level of ability to access that at any time.

Caleb Wheatley
Head of Consumer Equity Research, Macquarie Group

Great. Thank you. That's all from me this morning.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sholto Maconochie from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

Oh, hi, everyone. Just a quick one on the, I may have missed this. Did you say the leasing spreads will be bigger in FY 2024 than in FY 2030?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Sorry, Sholto, ask the question again.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

Just on the leasing spreads, I think. Did you say they'd be higher, like better spreads in 2024 versus 2023?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

What I, what I said in the presentation was, we've got an element of the portfolio that hasn't had the rents determined yet on it.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

Mm-hmm.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Early indications on what those, that 40,000 sq is probably looking better than that 37% we were talking about in the presentation. I think if we continue to see the rental growth we're seeing in the market, we will continue to see those re-leasing spreads expand further.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

Okay. makes sense. What's the level of under-renting again in your portfolio? I may have missed it.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

On valuer assessment, so external valuers, marking our portfolio to market, they're calling our portfolio 15% under let. Our management view is probably somewhere in the range of 25%-30% under-rented.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

Okay. Okay. Then, I noticed the, the hedging went up about 10% on the PC on, the on December from the first half. You've assumed a 4.6 BBSW for your floating debt. What, what's your assumption on the all-in cost of debt this year, including the Exchangeable?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

It's gonna be around 4%.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

4%, all, all in?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

All in.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate Equities Research, Jefferies

All right, thanks. That's everything for me. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Bodor from UBS. Your line is open.

Tom Bodor
Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Morning, Jesse and Michael. Just wanted to ask about your vacancy on the portfolio. Still pretty modest at 2%, but just be interested in just the progress, particularly on the assets where there's 0% occupancy.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Yeah, Tom Bodor, it's, it's going well. I mean, where there's, where there's vacancy, I think I alluded to the fact that one of those vacancies, the, the biggest vacancy we hold, 616 Boundary Road, we've now got terms agreed on and awaiting a signed lease. That will essentially resolve that. That's about half of our current vacancy or 1%. The balance of these sort of tenancies are then smaller, sub 5,000 sq m tenancies, which we expect sit in one of the tighter segments of the market, that size range, and also the segment of the market we're seeing the highest amount of tenant demand. Feel pretty comfortable with where leasing heads on the vacancy.

Tom Bodor
Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, that's great. Thank you. Then just a final one. Be interested in, you know, do you see opportunities to continue to sell lower quality assets opportunistically, or do you feel like you've sort of trimmed the portfolio to a point where you're pretty comfortable with where it sits?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

It's something we continue to monitor as part of watching the portfolio. You know, as we get leasing results or as we think we've maximized value on assets, we'll potentially look to divest or recycle that capital into areas of this business where we think we can generate higher returns. You'll probably notice in the state accounts, we've identified one asset that's held for sale at the moment. I anticipate we'll continue to look at the portfolio and see how we can improve it.

Tom Bodor
Director and Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Before we continue on to our next question, just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Edward Day from Moelis Australia. Your line is open.

Edward Day
Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Moelis Austrailia

Hey, Jesse. Just on that asset sale. That's the Westm eadows asset from what I could say. You guys bought that in, I think, 2018. Can you just sort of talk us through the decision to sell that asset?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Hey, Ben. Hey, Ed, how are you? The asset was identified as one we've added a lot of value to over the last three years or four years of owning that asset. We've taken rents up about 40% on the asset over that period of time. It's a high churn asset. It's got a large number of tenants. We're essentially looking with more small to medium-style enterprises occupying it. As we look to optimize this portfolio, you know, increase the quality of income being paid, that was an asset we've identified that potentially would be a good asset to move on from at this point.

Edward Day
Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Moelis Austrailia

Okay. Then just on your capital expenditure requirements, could you just outline what you've got left at Campbellfield and then what your expectations are for some of the asset repositioning?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Total development commitments for the balance of this year on Canning Vale and Campbellfield is AUD 34 million. We've then got allocations of AUD 10 million for other value add style activities across the portfolio currently in the budget.

Edward Day
Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Moelis Austrailia

Okay, that's all. Thank you.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Thanks, Ed.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Berry from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Good morning, guys. Just wanting your comments on how tenants might be seeing affordability of leases at the moment, given you've had such big rental increases, and whether any tenants are taking measures to reduce space, you know, move into cheaper areas. Yeah, what are you seeing on the ground?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Hey, Lauren. Yeah, I think there's a bit we're seeing in that space. If you look at Sydney and how supply constrained Sydney is compared to other markets like Brisbane and Melbourne, you've seen a little bit of media around large occupiers potentially looking to move those operations, those urban fringe or large distribution center operations, to Melbourne or Brisbane, as the rent or occupancy costs, in some cases, are half what they are in Sydney. What we've specifically seen across our portfolio is you can't replace the Last Mile or Urban Infill location of our warehouses for their proximity to a large population base within a short drive time.

When we assess the affordability of, of rent for our tenants, over 70% have dynamic pricing models, where they can pass through the rent almost immediately as it goes up. When you think about the total expense base of industrial tenants, rent still represents only about 5% of their expense base. We haven't seen any increase in delinquencies across our portfolio that show that the tenant affordability of rent is redlining.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you. Just on your portfolio, you, you called out opportunities to improve the balance sheet, which I assume means, you know, capital recycling. Do you see any opportunities emerging to make acquisitions? Are there any cheaper pricing come up, or how are you seeing the market?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

We haven't really seen a dislocation in the transaction market occur yet. Definitely, transaction volumes are down across the direct market. And the strongest segment of that market we're seeing is sort of those core plus and value add buyers. You know, there have been some international groups that have made some pretty big plays in Australia. Some of the Aussie super funds are making some big plays in the Australian industrial market at the moment. So we're seeing pricing hold up. We're, we're not seeing a great deal of value where we have to go and deploy money. I think where our view from a CIP perspective is probably to look at our existing book and make the most of some of the embedded value we're carrying in CIP's portfolio in the near term.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, great. Just the last one from me. Those undecided options, have you booked in the higher rent, the leases that you assume will get higher rent into FY 2023, or will that be something that will be added back into FY 2024 once they're actually determined?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

We've made some assumptions in guidance around where we think those rents will land.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, cool. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Jones from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Oh, thanks. Hi, Jesse. Yeah, so, so just in terms of what you book in FY 2023, Jesse, on those 47,000 sq m, what do you book for those leases that are obviously yet to be determined?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

The majority, Michael, correct me if I'm wrong, the majority, if not all of those leases, will only have an impact on FY 2024. There won't be any backdating to FY 2023 of any of those exercise of option or undetermined leases. It'll all be an FY 2024 impact.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay, okay. Just the Morgan Stanley partnership, is that an open-ended partnership? Can you maybe touch on, I guess, the capacity for further sales into that venture?

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

We've got a very wide relationship with Morgan Stanley right across the Centuria Capital Group. The mandate we've got with them on industrial currently is a 50/50 between CIP and Morgan Stanley. There's no pre-prescribed way that vehicle can grow, and I'll probably leave it to CNI to make some comments when that vehicle when they report later in the week. You know, our view is if that vehicle wants to grow, it doesn't have to necessarily grow with CIP. CIP could participate, it might not participate. It's all gonna be opportunity-led.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay. That's it from me. Thanks, Jesse.

Operator

As there are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Jesse for closing remarks.

Jesse Curtis
Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager, Centuria Industrial REIT

Thank you, everyone, for your ongoing support of Centuria Industrial REIT, and calling in today. Please don't hesitate to contact either Tim Mitchell, myself or Michael, for any follow-up questions. Otherwise, we look forward to discussing the results with you over the next couple of weeks. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Please enjoy the rest of your week. You may now disconnect.

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