Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Centuria Industrial REIT FY 2024 results conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jesse Curtis, Head of Funds Management for Centuria Capital. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for joining Centuria Industrial REIT's Financial Year 2024 results presentation. My name is Jesse Curtis, Head of Funds Management for Centuria Capital. Also presenting today is Grant Nichols, Head of Listed Funds and CIP Fund Manager, and Michael Ching, CIP's Assistant Fund Manager. Also present in the room today is Jason Huljich, Joint CEO of Centuria Capital, and Tim Mitchell, Group Head of Investor Relations. Let's start on slide 3. I would like to commence today's presentation with an acknowledgment of country. We are joining you from the lands of the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. Centuria manages property throughout Australia and New Zealand and pays its respects to the traditional owners in each country, to their unique culture, and to their elders, past and present.
The Australian industrial real estate market continues to exhibit strong tailwinds, driven by rising e-commerce adoption, a growing population, and trend towards onshoring supply chains in the wake of global geopolitical uncertainty. CIP is well-positioned to capitalize on these market and macroeconomic trends to the benefit of its unitholders, and we are proud with the results CIP has delivered in FY 2024. In today's presentation, Grant and Michael will cover an overview of CIP's FY 2024 performance, CIP's financial results, analysis of the operational performance, further detail on CIP's development pipeline, and concluding with an outlook and guidance statement. Moving to Slide 5. Centuria Industrial REIT is managed by Centuria Capital Group. Centuria has over AUD 21 billion of assets under management, and CIP is the largest fund managed by Centuria.
CIP unitholders benefit from deep real estate, real estate expertise across the Centuria Group platform, including a fully integrated property, facilities, and asset management team, and in-house development management. Synergies from being part of the group's wider AUD 6 billion industrial real estate portfolio and strong alignment as Centuria is CIP's largest unitholder, with a 16% co-investment, ensuring the manager's interests are strongly aligned to yours as unitholders. On to Slide 6. CIP's long-standing vision and strategy remains unchanged. We aspire to be Australia's leading domestic pure-play industrial REIT, with the primary focus on delivering income and capital growth to investors from a portfolio of high-quality Australian industrial assets.
We have, over the long term, executed on our strategy by differentiating CIP through growing the portfolio of high-quality, freehold, infill, and last-mile industrial assets that are relevant to our tenant customers, generating greater levels of tenant demand through the cycle. We believe these assets deliver superior returns to unitholders through favorable dynamic-demand dynamics in markets with limited supply. The results that Grant and Michael present today reflect the execution of this strategy, supported by the deep real estate capability of the broader Centuria team to drive value for unitholders. I'll now pass you over to Grant.
Thanks, Jesse, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin on Slide 7, I would like to make a quick comment on the management changes that occurred during the half. Centuria has a demonstrable track record of promoting from within, which provides not only a level of consistency, but retains knowledge within the group. In the case of CIP, while Jesse is no longer managing the fund day-to-day, he remains an integral component of CIP's management, and the expertise Jesse gained throughout his 5 years as CIP Fund Manager is accessible to all within the group. As Jesse stated earlier, CIP's long-standing vision and strategy remains unchanged, and Michael and I look forward to continuing to work with Jesse in executing that strategy. Moving on to CIP's FY 2024 results.
Despite a higher debt cost environment, CIP delivered FY 2024 upgraded FFO guidance of 78.2 cents per unit, while providing FY 2025 FFO guidance of 17.5 cents per unit. This earnings growth was enabled by the strong leasing results the Centuria team has been able to deliver, executing 43% average re-leasing spreads across a significant amount of leasing. Solid investment demand for urban infill industrial property has also seen stabilizing portfolio valuations as of 30 June, with the full-year portfolio valuations slightly higher than December. These valuations were reinforced by the divestment CIP achieved throughout the year, with CIP disposing of 4 assets for a combined value of AUD 120 million, with each asset sold at or above book value. Looking at the results in more detail on Slide 8.
Centuria's active, hands-on approach to portfolio management successfully delivered more than 300,000 sq m of leasing transactions throughout the year. With average re-leasing spreads of 43%, up from 30% in FY 2023 and 11% in FY 2022. The Centuria development team delivered over 57,000 square meters of completions in FY 2024, further enhancing CIP's portfolio, while taking advantage of Australia's limited supply capability within urban infill industrial markets. Looking ahead, with nearly 40% of leases expiring by FY 2028, with over 80% exposure to urban infill industrial markets, CIP has significant embedded positive rent reversions to unlock in coming years.
From a capital management perspective, divestment, divestment of non-core assets at an average 4% premium to book value, has kept gearing at the lower end of the target gearing range, while 93% hedging will limit interest rate volatility throughout FY 2025. Slide nine details CIP's key metrics. The 89-asset portfolio, as of 30 June, was valued at AUD 3.8 billion, with high occupancy of 97.1%, and a weighted average lease expiry of 7.6 years. CIP maintains a strong balance sheet, with pro forma gearing of 34% and net tangible assets of AUD 3.86 per unit. Before I pass to Michael, I will quickly touch on some of the key growth drivers for Australian industrial real estate on slide ten, and how CIP has been positioned to take advantage of these tailwinds.
E-commerce penetration within Australia is still well below comparable global peers, and provides a long runway of growth for industrial markets. Australian e-commerce is expected to increase AUD 15 billion by 2027, generating in excess of 1 million sq m of demand for industrial space. Onshoring is another continued trend, with greater investment in technology and automation, creating a more competitive manufacturing environment within Australia. Supply chain resilience continues to be a focus, reducing cost volatility in an uncertain geopolitical environment. Demand for cold store is set to grow, with 40% of Australia's total retail spend on food, and 11% of Australian exports relating to food and beverage.
As the Australian and global population continues to grow, and with increasing preference for fresh produce, we expect strong ongoing demand for cold storage, particularly considering Australia doesn't have significant cold store capacity, with cold storage per capita significantly lower than global peers. Increased data center demand is another expected driver for Australian urban infill industrial markets, with the rapid growth of generative AI, cloud, content, and gaming significantly increasing demand for data center capacity, particularly in Sydney. Turning to slide 11. CIP is very well placed to take advantage of these industry growth drivers, primarily because CIP's portfolio has critical mass in Australia's urban infill industrial markets. Since Centuria assumed management of CIP in 2017, the portfolio has been methodically constructed, with every asset evaluated by its unique market proposition and value add capability.
CIP's portfolio has a significant amount of embedded value, which can be unlocked through future real estate cycles. In the past few months, I've inspected over 80 of CIP's assets, and I've been constantly reminded of how active the REIT's portfolio assets are, particularly the amount of people working within the facilities and the amount of vehicle movements they generate every hour. Lunchrooms are busy and car parks are full, and tenants are competing to attract and retain staff, so a well-located industrial asset within close proximity to a reliable workforce remains critical. Further, any automation and manufacturing improvements generally require a more highly skilled workforce, amplifying the need for a well-located facility. When considering location in relation to customer base, outbound transport is generally 4x-5x the cost of rent as a proportion of an industrial tenant's operational expenditure.
This again drives demand for well-located industrial facilities within urban infill markets. The average tenancy size across the CIP portfolio is an, is an additional key feature. More than 85% of market leases by number are between 3,000 sq m-20,000 sq m, which CIP's average tenancy size is squarely within, contributing to the REIT's high occupancy and short downtime. Finally, the average asset value of AUD 43 million is another key portfolio attribute. As already mentioned, CIP sold 4 assets throughout FY 2024 at an average 4% premium to book value. A smaller average asset value increases the depth of investment demand, allowing CIP to execute nimbly at attractive pricing. I will now hand over to Assistant Fund Manager, Michael Ching, to take you through the financial results and portfolio overview.
Thanks, Grant. Moving to the FY 2024 financial results on slide 13. CIP delivered funds from operations of AUD 109.3 million, or 17.2 per unit in FY 2024, in line with the upgraded guidance provided in February. Strong leasing outcomes achieved throughout the year resulted in CIP outperforming our initial FY 2024 earnings guidance of AUD 0.17 per unit. Gross property income for the year was AUD 227.2 million, an increase of AUD 7.2 million year-on-year, and was partly impacted by the asset divestments executed throughout the FY 2023 and FY 2024 periods.
Pleasingly, leasing outcomes achieved across the portfolio delivered a strong growth in like-for-like net operating income of 6.5% for the year. The AUD 2.2 million of other income recorded in FY 2024 relates to the coupon payments received on our fund- through development project, Campbellfield in Victoria. This project is now complete. High interest rates resulted in CIP's total interest costs increasing by AUD 7.5 million to AUD 51.4 million for the full year. Looking at capital management in more detail on slide 14. CIP continues to maintain a strong balance sheet. During the year, we divested AUD 120 million of assets, with proceeds used to repay debt.
We canceled AUD 105 million of excess debt capacity and entered into AUD 200 million of interest rate swaps to maintain a high level of hedging in a volatile interest rate environment. Post balance date, CIP refinanced a AUD 100 million debt facility for a further 5 years at attractive terms. Through these initiatives, CIP maintains a robust balance sheet, with pro forma gearing of 34%, over AUD 174 million of available liquidity, and no debt maturities till FY 2026. CIP enters FY 2025 with 93% of debt hedged. CIP's balance sheet provides ample headroom to our debt covenants and continues to be well supported by our lenders. Moving on to slide 16. This slide shows detailed CIP's portfolio composition and geographical spread as Australia's largest listed domestic pure-play industrial REIT.
CIP continues to provide investors with exposure to a 100% industrial real estate-only portfolio, with 99% of assets held under freehold ownership. The portfolio remains geographically diversified, with a favorable 90% weighting to Australia's East Coast. 83% of CIP's portfolio is located in core urban infill markets, close to densely populated catchments, with limited supply and where tenant demand is highest. Looking at slide 17, which outlines our leasing activity for the year. FY 2024 was an extremely strong year of leasing for CIP, with over 300,000 sq m or over 22% of the portfolio leased, with average leasing spreads of 43%. Excluding the near 95,000 square meter renewal to AWH in Perth, which is an outlier given its size, CIP's leasing spreads for FY 2024 would be 47%.
CIP's strong leasing spreads can be attributed to our portfolio, long-standing portfolio construction strategy, focusing on functional assets in key urban infill locations where tenant demand is highest. Notable leasing transactions completed during the year include: a 26,000 renewal, 26,000 sq m renewal of The Reject Shop at our Bundamba asset in Queensland, and an early renewal of EWE Group at our asset in Chullora, New South Wales, which delivered an immediate rental uplift for CIP while providing the tenants with security of tenure over the site. Looking forward, the portfolio offers near-term mark-to-market opportunities, with 39% of leases expiring by FY 2028. Slide 18 provides a case study on our active asset management. In this case, leasing success across our Western Australian portfolio.
CIP secured significant leasing outcomes across more than 65% of our WA portfolio during the year, including the renewal and expansion of AWH across nearly 95,000 sq m at our assets in Bibra Lake. This is the largest leasing transaction in the Perth industrial market year to date, and AWH is CIP's largest tenant by area. We also leased 12,300 sq m across two tenancies at our newly completed Canning Vale development. The development is now fully leased at rents significantly higher than the initial underwrite of the project. Our active asset management, with dedicated teams on the ground in Perth, has resulted in strong leasing outcomes for CIP during the year, with over 120,000 sq m of leasing, which directly contributed to a valuation increase of 8% across the WA sub-portfolio during the year.
Slide 19 outlines our high-quality customer base. 93% of our customers are listed, national or multinational corporations, and 99% of our leases are net or triple net, providing resilience to our income streams from some of Australia's most recognizable brands. I will now hand you back to Grant to talk you through the strategic transactions during the year.
Thanks, Michael. Turning to slide 20. All strategic divestments during the year contributed to underpin CIP's net tangible assets and demonstrated portfolio liquidity. The non-core assets were divested at an average premium of 4% to book values, and the disposal further optimized portfolio construction. The divestments were complemented by 2 acquisitions during the year. CIP acquired a 5 MW data center in the Perth suburb of Malaga, increasing the CIP data center sub-portfolio to over AUD 450 million. CIP also acquired 11 Hickson Place in Wetherill Park. This acquisition adds to our existing 4 adjoining assets and creates further scale and development opportunity. CIP now has a 5.7 hectare amalgamated site in the tightly held, highly fragmented infill city industrial market. Touching on valuations on slide 21.
During the year, CIP's portfolio weighted average capitalization rate expanded 55 basis points to 5.81%, with the cap rate expanding 162 basis points since June 2022. As previously mentioned, we saw stabilizing portfolio valuations at 30 June, with full year portfolio valuations slightly higher than December, due to leasing success and strong market rental growth offsetting the slowing cap rate expansion. Looking at ESG highlights on slide 22. Under Centuria's management, CIP has created a flexible and relevant sustainability framework. During FY 2024, CIP implemented a number of ESG initiatives, including launching a new sustainability target of 0 Scope 2 emissions by 2028, targeting 5-star Green Star design for all future developments, a continued partnership with Healthy Heads, an organization focused on mental health in the transport and logistics industries, and the continued rollout of solar across CIP assets.
Moving to Centuria's development capability on slide 24. CIP has established a strong track record of unlocking embedded value from urban infill industrial sites. Over the past two years, Centuria has delivered with an end value of approximately AUD 250 million, most recently, M80 Connect at Campbellfield in Victoria, and 204 Bannister Road in Canning Vale, WA. These developments are accretive to earnings, while improving the overall portfolio quality by providing modern, functional industrial facilities in desirable locations. They also could not be easily replicated in the transaction market. Looking ahead, CIP has identified a development pipeline with a AUD 1 billion estimated value on completion. This pipeline focuses on the limited competing development capability within urban infill industrial markets and the key growth drivers for industrial markets.
This development potential is enabled by CIP maintaining an industrial portfolio of critical mass, largely within densely populated urban infill locations. When thinking about CIP's development pipeline, it is worth considering the identified pipeline is expected to be delivered over five years at a run rate not dissimilar to what CIP delivered in FY 2024 and FY 2023. While the pipeline has an expected end value of AUD 1 billion, it only requires approximately AUD 400 million-AUD 500 million of funding, and CIP has multiple avenues to explore. 94% of the development pipeline is currently income producing, providing optionality and timing flexibility. And again, 94% of the development pipeline is located within urban infill markets, where supply is severely constrained.
An update on specific development projects has been noted on slide 25, including a 60,000 sq m multi-level development in Wetherill Park, New South Wales, where we have lodged a SSDA, which aims to cater to a severe lack of modern stock in this long-established infill industrial market. An 11,500 brownfield development in Derrimut, Victoria, where we've submitted a DA to maximize a currently underutilized site, and a modern 7,500 sq m facility adjacent to our existing facility on currently vacant land in Direk, SA, which has received DA approval. In addition to the potential developments, CIP has progressed the repositioning of the cold storage facility in Keysborough, and the expansion of an existing facility at 30 Fulton Drive in Derrimut.
Both Victorian projects are expected to complete in the second half of FY 2025 and are generating good tenanted interests. Turning to current market conditions on slide 26. Industrial rents have continued to increase in all major industrial markets, albeit at a slower pace than prior periods. Forecast demand is expected to remain greater than historical averages. While there have been a modest increase in supply, vacancy remains very low, and the supply being delivered has achieved a high level of pre-commitment. Overall, supply remains relatively subdued, considering the low vacancy rates, due to the limited availability of industrial zoned land, poor access to and provision of critical infrastructure, and the implications of higher construction and debt costs on development feasibilities. Concluding on slide 27.
Strong sector tailwinds, such as e-commerce adoption, onshoring of production and assembly, data center growth, and increased demand for cold storage, will continue to benefit Australian industrial markets, particularly infill industrial markets, where these tailwinds are generating the greatest tenant demand. For a portfolio with existing critical mass in Australian urban infill industrial markets, CIP is well placed to benefit from these tailwinds, given the limited potential for additional supply within these markets. In FY 2025, CIP will remain focused on maximizing value add opportunities across the portfolio, while maintaining balance sheet capacity. We are pleased to provide CIP's FY 2025 FFO guidance of 78.5 cents per unit, and distribution guidance of 16.3 cents per unit. That concludes the formal part of the presentation. I will now hand back to the operator for any questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. In the interest of time, if you could please limit to two questions and then rejoin the queue if you have any further questions. Your first question comes from Caleb Wheatley from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Grant, Jesse, and Michael. Thank you for your time this morning. My first question is just on guidance. Are you able to provide any more color, please, on the key inputs from your perspective, particularly around re-leasing spreads expected throughout FY 2025, occupancy and any input on interest costs as well, please?
So just going in reverse, Caleb, we've forecast a floating rate or an average floating rate of 4.6% for the full year. In relation to other comments, look, we when we're forecasting, we are looking at every single individual vacancy or lease expiry that's occurring across the year. So we haven't factored a single number. Everything is being done individually. So at this stage, we can't really give you an average, if you like, in terms of downtime per expiry or average re-leasing spread per expiry.
No problem. Thank you. And then just a second follow-up question. On the DPS guidance as well, just looking at the payout ratio compared to FFO, it looks like it's been coming down modestly over the past few years. Just any further comments on the rationale as to why the payout ratio would be coming down, please?
So I think we've got a long-term ambition to probably get the payout ratio to about 90. Although at this stage, we're more than comfortable with the circa 93% that we'll have for FY 2025. So I think in the coming years, you'll see potentially DPU not grow quite as much as the FFO until we get down to about that 90% payout ratio number.
Is that more of a reflection of sort of MC and TI that it's rolling through, or does that have anything to do with potential capital commitments upcoming from the development pipeline?
Look, I think it's, it's a, probably a combination of both, but when you're thinking about where our developments sit at the moment, at this stage, we have no committed projects, but it's more just we think it's a prudent capital management position going forward.
Okay, great. That's all from me. Thank you.
The next question comes from Richard Jones with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Grant. Just wondering if you could step through your development hurdle rates as well as expected starts in 2025 and how much income may come offline as a result of that?
Sure, Richard. So in FY 2025, the majority of the projects remain in planning. I don't think you'll see significant starts within FY 2025. So from that perspective, I don't think you're gonna see much impact on FFO. And in terms of the hurdle rates, look, so for most of these projects, we're seeking a yield on cost in excess of 6.5%, so some will be better than that. So it really is on a project-by-project basis, but really, that's what we're targeting.
Okay, and just leasing at Campbellfield, can you just give us an update on how you're tracking there and what your expectations are for the remaining 20,000 sq m ?
So there's two units that remain for lease in that facility. At this stage, we've got interest on both, but obviously we don't have any executed lease agreements at this stage. Our belief is that those two existing facilities will be leased in the coming months, and hopefully by half year results, we'll confirm that facility is fully occupied.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Steven Tjia with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Hi, Grant. Thanks for your time this morning. Just so vacancy is increasing across Australia, obviously off a low base, just can you talk about your expectations for market rent growth in 2025?
Yeah, I think when people talk about the rising vacancy rates in industrial, it's worth remembering that the national vacancy rate is still below 2%. So while it's coming off a very low base, it remains super low. From that perspective, we still foresee that there will be rental growth coming across the majority of industrial markets in the coming 12 months. It may not be as strong as what we saw in particularly FY 2022 and FY 2023, but I think there is still opportunity for some pretty decent rental growth to come through Australian industrial markets.
Thanks. And, just on your debt, can you talk about the extension that you've done, if there are any major change in terms, and, what your WACD kind of looks like across 2025? There are any changes in the second half.
So in terms of the recent debt finance renewal, we've got some very strong support from our lenders at this point in time. There has been no material change to debt terms. If anything, we've probably seen a slight improvement on debt pricing in the last six months. So from that perspective, we don't foresee there is any material refinancing risk within CIP at the moment. As mentioned, we've got very, very strong support from our lenders. Sorry, Steven, I missed the second part of that question. What was that?
Just to run you through our debt, obviously, it's highly hedged at the moment.
Yeah.
You know, are there any major hedges that roll off in the second half?
Yeah, so the hedge books detailed in the stat accounts, but just for clarity, we incurred a weighted average cost of debt of 3.9% in FY 2024. We expect that will be somewhere around 4.5% through FY 2025.
Great, thanks.
The next question comes from Tom Boulton with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Grant. I'd just be interested in sort of following up on some more market-wide commentary and just what you're seeing across the portfolio in terms of how sublease space and incentives are tracking.
Yeah, thanks, Tom. Look, in terms of sublease space, there's probably 2 elements to this question, but they're both related. Majority of sublease space that we've seen, and also probably where there is some softness within the industrial markets, is occurring in, in, in tenancy size in excess of 20,000 sq m . So from that perspective, it doesn't have a large impact on particularly the, the broader CIP portfolio. We've got an average tenancy size of about 7,500 sq m-8,000 sq m , and that's where we're seeing a lot of the demand continuing to come through. So I think where you're seeing weakness at the moment, with incentives potentially starting to creep up and some sublease availability, it really is in those larger box sizes, which hasn't had a material impact on, on CIP at this point in time.
So, is it generally whole facilities, though, or is it portions of facilities where that is coming in?
Look, we've heard of, for argument's sake, if you've got a 40,000 sq m box, that some people are seeking to sublease potentially 20 of that or some significant components or compartments of that. But we haven't seen, in terms of what's comparable to the CIP portfolio, either park facilities or whole facilities that really compete in that sort of 3,000-10,000 sq m mark.
Yep. Okay, great. Thanks. And then just a second question. On the data center acquisition, it's got a relatively short WALE. I'd just be interested in thoughts around likelihood of tenant renewal and also, you know, the facility's constructed in 2009, so I'm guessing might not be up to current standards. So just some comments around sort of the, I guess, the risk around that asset being, you know, vacated or redundant over time.
Yeah. Thanks, Tom. I think the hardest thing when looking at a data center is the availability of power. Now, if you've got an existing data center, I think there is going to be strong demand for data centers going forward. So for argument's sake, and we're still very confident the tenant will renew, but if there was, if that space were to become available, just the availability of power to that site makes it a very attractive proposition. So we are pretty confident that we are going to have no material issues on that site.
And so from a, you know, built form perspective, is there major CapEx required, you know, should the tenant vacate over time to get it up to standard for a new tenant?
Not from the landlord's perspective, no.
Okay. Thanks.
Your next question comes from Simon Chan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, guys. Hey, it looks like you did a fair bit of leasing in FY 2024, and looks like the bulk of it came in in the second half by square meters. Just wondering, when did those new leases take effect from? Did they all kick in in the second half, or do you think most of them are actually more FY 2025?
So you're quite right. So the, the largest renewal that we did was AWH, and that, that lease alone was near on 100,000 sq m of space, and that's got a forward start date of August. So there is some of these leases won't have an impact until later on through FY 2025. It won't be an immediate, well, it won't be an immediate from 1 July.
Right. So with that in mind, I mean, just mathematically, the like-for-like NOI growth in FY 2025 should be pretty enormous then, given the average spread was 40%, 40-odd%. Right? And then the stuff that's not renewing is, you know, growing at, call it 3%. Like, you know, the like-for-like growth should be enormous. And then I'm just trying to connect the dots. Why is your FFO growth like sub 2%? I mean, the way the average interest, I get you were saying, is going up by 60 basis points, 65 basis points, et cetera, but that doesn't offset this enormous like-for-like NOI growth you're looking at. And you're not taking assets offline for development, right? Like you said before. So I'm just trying to connect the dots there, Grant. Can you help us?
So I haven't seen your model, Simon, so I can't really give you a clear guidance as to what's occurred, but clearly there is an issue in terms of increasing debt costs are eroding that FFO growth, that we or the NOI growth that we are achieving. And as mentioned, of the leasing we've done, not all of it is starting from 1 July, so it does come through in dribs and drabs throughout the course of FY 2025. So it's not an immediate like-for-like calculation.
All right, then. Thanks.
The next question comes from Andy MacFarlane with Bell Potter. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. Look, just to follow on the development pipeline, you've kind of called out in the presentation just in terms of the AUD 400 million-AUD 500 million requiring funding. So if you can just give us a bit of color on how you think you might achieve that.
Hi, Andy. So as mentioned, the development pipeline is expected to be delivered over a five-year period. So, and as mentioned in a prior question, we have no committed developments at this stage. So there is no immediate development funding that we have to meet. In thinking about how that would play out, look, through FY 2024, we sold, you know, AUD 120 million of assets. We've had a very good track record of being able to sell assets at or above book value. So if it came to be that that was the way that we were funding our development pipeline, there'd be no issues doing that.
Just to reinforce, we're expecting that it will be between AUD 400 million- AUD 500 million required to fund our development pipeline over a five-year period, and there are multiple avenues that we can explore to fund that.
Thank you. Yeah, just one follow-on, just I guess on CapTrans, you just kind of mentioned. Just wondering what your kind of expectations are for FY 2025 on either the buy or sell side of the equation.
So I think through FY 2025, from our perspective on industrial, we're seeing good levels of demand for the type of product that CIP owns. So obviously, we've done those 4 transactions through FY 2024 at or above book value. The off-market approaches that we are receiving at the moment for other CIP assets indicate that there is ongoing strong demand for the type of product that CIP owns. So we are reasonably confident that we will see valuations stabilize through FY 2025. And you'll continue to see some pretty decent demand for CIP style assets.
Thanks, Grant.
Your next question comes from Edward Day with Moelis Australia. Please go ahead.
Morning, Grant. Can we just circle back to Campbellfield? Is that taking longer to lease up than initially expected? Can you maybe just chat to the dynamics in that particular market if it is in fact taking longer?
It probably has taken slightly longer than we would've anticipated, Ed, and there's probably a couple of components to that. We've had a couple of lease negotiations fall over, which probably caused us to reset, which was unfortunate. I don't think it's indicative of the market in totality, but probably within Melbourne as a broader group, we are seeing stronger demand in the southeast than we probably are seeing at the north at the moment. But as mentioned, in a prior question, we've got negotiation on all the vacant space within that facility at the moment, and we're confident that will get done within the next six months.
Okay, thanks. And then you've got, I think it's about 24,000 sq m coming up for expiry in Fairfield. Just firstly, the specific timing on that, and then I'll guess your expectations around an outcome to that asset.
Yeah, thanks. So at Fairfield, the existing tenant is looking at doing a short-term holdover within that facility, and that's still being negotiated at this point in time. So they may hold over slightly longer than when their expiry was to occur. In terms of the outlook for leasing that space, again, we'd be hopeful that by half year results, we'll have an outcome on that space, but at this stage, we forecast about six months downtime.
Okay, thank you.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from James Druce with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, Grant, Jesse, Michael, and Jason. I just wanted to follow on from Tom's questions, just around general conditions. I was curious what you're seeing or expecting in terms of demand over the next six months. Are you expecting demand to pick up, or what are your expectations?
We probably do have an expectation that the second half of calendar year 2024 will be stronger than the first half of calendar year 2024. So from that perspective, we probably do foresee that there will be an increase in transaction velocity in the second half of 2024. But as mentioned, with Tom, the benefit that CIP has and the style of asset that we own, like, our tenancy profile is generally very highly in demand. So we haven't really seen a slowdown so much as the broader market in that first calendar or the first half of calendar year 2024. A lot of that has definitely been in that large box market that I was articulating prior.
Okay, and what's driving that, that pickup that you're expecting?
There's two things. I think there's a greater, greater amount of lease expiries that need to be dealt with. But I think there is also... there is probably, for the larger box sizes anyway, there was a period where tenants had probably grown more than they had the capacity for at that point in time, and our understanding is that has now been mostly taken up. So that will hopefully get to a point where it starts to come back into the market in, in net absorption.
Yeah. Okay. And then just on slide 26, it's sort of a related question. Just looking at 2025, about half of the new forecast supply is speculative. At what point, I know vacancy is pretty tight at the moment, but at what point does that become uncomfortable?
Well, I don't think it becomes that uncomfortable because it's still, like, in terms of just the natural absorption or the natural expansion, you're seeing tenant demand a year, in any, in an average year, it would still evaporate that supply pretty quickly. So, and this is one thing, obviously, I've come from an office background. What surprises me most about the industrial market at the moment, you probably have the strongest tenant demand we've ever seen in industrial markets, but we haven't seen an avalanche of supply. What we're seeing is supply is pretty much being offset by natural tenant demand, like average tenant demand. I don't think this is gonna create a headache at all.
Okay. If I may just go on one more other topic. You-
Sure.
You've got a reasonable exposure to Victoria. I'm just curious, can you just comment on the impact that the absentee surcharges and the commercial industrial property tax has had on values or might have down the track?
Yeah, it's a really good question. I wish I could be more direct in the answer, but at this stage, we haven't really seen, or we don't really know what the impact will be. Obviously, it's going to have an impact, but at this stage, we haven't seen enough transactions to fully ascertain what impact foreign owners are going to, or how they're going to price the change in taxation to that. So yeah, it's going to be an interesting thing to watch in the coming years, but at this stage, we probably haven't got a full or firm view on what the impact will be.
All right, thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the conference back to Mr. Nichols for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us for today's presentation. If you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to contact any of the team. With that, we thank you very much, and have a good day.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.