Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Corporate Travel Management Limited full-year results conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Jamie Pherous, Managing Director. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, Travis, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the CTM FY22 results presentation. My name is Jamie Pherous. I'm CEO and Managing Director of CTM, and I'm joined today by our CFO, Cale Bennett. But let's go straight to slide 4 if we can, and then onto slide 5, the highlights. There's 5 key highlights I wish to cover. Firstly, as we've said all the way through COVID, it's our superior business model, which enables CTM to successfully convert the recovery in activity into revenue and, importantly, profit before tax and net profit after tax. We finished FY22 with underlying EBITDA of AUD 59.8 million, better than we forecast.
Most importantly, we are one of the very few that can demonstrate we can convert recovering activity into revenue and PBT, with full-year underlying profit before tax of AUD 22.3 million and underlying net profit after tax of AUD 17.5 million. It really is about the strong fourth quarter momentum and how this sets us up in FY23. Why is the fourth quarter so relevant? Well, it was the first period post-Delta and Omicron strains where travel restrictions were progressively lifted around the world, which we illustrate on the next slide. We did deliver, quarterly underlying EBITDA of AUD 35.7 million, underlying PBT of AUD 25 and a half million, and underlying NPAT of AUD 20.5 million for the quarter. To put this in perspective, if we annualize this fourth quarter underlying NPAT, it's actually over 82% of CTM's FY19 pre-COVID record. You can see we've come back pretty quickly.
Importantly, the fourth quarter is a fair representation of where CTM is currently trading today. On an annualized basis, we think this accurately reflects our starting run rate leading into further growth into FY23, being TTV of AUD 7.3 billion, revenue of AUD 563 million, and an underlying EBITDA of AUD 143 million, an underlying PBT of around AUD 102 million. Importantly, this is fourth quarter, and this momentum continued through that quarter, with June being materially higher than April. Also, which we'll talk about later, it's the productivity gains we're getting out of the scale of the business. In 4Q22, our productivity was up 14% versus pre-COVID averages. Now let's go on our financial strengths. This is what has got us through COVID and out of COVID in really good shape. We have AUD 127 million of corporate cash, no debt, positive PBT, and strong operating cash flow.
In fact, as a result, our confidence from our strong fourth quarter NPAT result. The board has determined a AUD 0.05 dividend for FY22, with our intention to resume dividends at 50% of NPAT in FY23. That's good news for shareholders. Fourthly, we just continue to win market share in this environment. Through this whole presentation, we don't talk to TTV as we think it's misleading given inflated ticket prices. Also, TTV doesn't accurately represent the future recovery. With supply remuneration changes in some markets, it is revenue and profit that matters in this environment. As we'll show on future slides, our revenue is running above IATA by 9.5 points, and this is because we continue to win market share in FY20, and this has continued into FY23.
Of course, the last point to remind you is that not only are we winning business, we're retaining 97% of our clients, which is very important as well. The last point here, we want to remind you that CTM is a much larger business. In fact, over 75% larger on full recovery, targeting revenue of AUD 810 million and underlying EBITDA of AUD 265 million in FY24. We are assuming the timing of full recovery in FY24 is in line with current IATA recovery forecasts, which we show in future slides. Importantly, because the capital we raised through COVID was for accretive acquisitions only, our shareholders benefit as we expect earnings per share to be over 30% greater upon full recovery versus our pre-COVID records. Onto slide 6.
Now, this graph depicts the stop-start year and how we're able to leverage our scale as activity returned in the fourth quarter of 2022. You can see on the left-hand side, the graph shows revenue by quarter, and the right-hand side shows the corresponding EBITDA by quarter. Now, this graph clearly depicts the Q2 Delta impact, the Q3 Omicron impact, and the fourth quarter progressive removal of travel restrictions. As you can see, Q2 and Q3 profits were deflated because we employed excess staff ahead of the recovery curve in Q1 for a future recovery that didn't commence until Q4 because of the associated lockdowns with the COVID strains.
As you can see on the graphs, as COVID became endemic and border restrictions gradually eased, the fourth quarter revenue and EBITDA recovered strongly, with revenue recovering to 69.5% of our full recovery target, generating over AUD 141 million in revenue, AUD 35.6 million underlying EBITDA for the quarter. I want to make it clear this isn't by any means a full recovery. As we said earlier, momentum continued to build through that last quarter, with June's recovery of revenue at 74% of our full recovery target. Secondly, we estimate the revenue still to come post-4Q22 is roughly 15% or 20% of revenues relating to the well-publicized supply constraints, 15% or 20% to clients not yet recovered in our three biggest markets, and of course, China's closed. Although the Trans-Pacific opened mid-June, we haven't seen that impact because our clients are on vacation.
We know when you add this all up, it's above 100%. This also just comes back and points to the market share gains made during the COVID period translating into revenue, which we show on the next slide. This recovery is further supported by our late May global client survey, where 80% of our clients expected to do the same or more travel in FY23 than they did in FY19, which is pre-COVID. That's also a strong sign for us. Onto slide 7. This is another external data point supporting rapid recovery. This chart, which charts IATA, is their most recent update on passenger recovery numbers. We have taken the data for our regions that CTM operates in, being Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe, and compared our revenue recovery to IATA, not TTV, importantly. There are three takeaways from this slide.
Firstly, IATA predicts passenger numbers to exceed pre-COVID or be 103% by CY24 and 111% in CY25. Secondly, as you're aware, CTM has been running ahead of IATA data right throughout this recovery due to market share gains. CTM revenue has recovered to 69.5% for Q4 and, as we said before, 74% in June 2022 versus IATA, which we estimate here on this graph at 60%. It's important for you to know too we're being prudent. Despite being ahead of the market, our recovery assumptions remain prudent and aligned to IATA forecasts, which we outline in detail on the next slide. Onto slide 8. I want to spend a bit of time because this is the important slide in terms of tracking how CTM's recovering. Look, this slide essentially shows our trajectory to full recovery that will make CTM 75% larger than pre-COVID.
Firstly, let's look at the left-hand side graph there. As you can see, the green line represents our revenue trajectory for the five-year period from FY19 or pre-COVID to our full recovery assumption FY24, with the blue line representing underlying EBITDA over the same period. Let me explain the points on the chart. Firstly, point 1 on the chart. This represents our pre-COVID revenue and EBITDA from FY19, which is our record year being AUD 450 million of revenue and AUD 150 million of EBITDA. Point 2 is the commencement of this recovery. Now, for those that follow the stock, we've got a lot of updates in that timeframe. We made two points very clear that we flagged. Firstly, we expected permanent cost out. Secondly, we expected to leverage the scale and automation gains from the Travel and Transport acquisition in November 2020.
Thirdly, once we broke through break-even and covered our fixed costs, which occurred around 18 months ago at CTM, we expected that for every AUD 1 of additional revenue, that would translate into AUD 0.50 of EBITDA. This is represented by the pink-shaded area in terms of actually what's happened to date. We go to point 3, and this is important. This is where we are actually trading today based upon the fourth quarter being annualized. As far as we're concerned, this is our baseline run rate to grow from into FY23. We start the year just shy of 70% of our full revenue recovery. To reinforce the greater size of CTM, today's revenue is already significantly higher than pre-COVID CTM at over 126% of our FY19 record, and EBITDA is around 95% of our pre-COVID record, translating as planned.
At 4Q22 or at our run rate, EBITDA revenue margins are currently circa 25%, but of course, this will build with incremental revenue driving AUD 0.50 to the bottom line as we get to full recovery. Point 4 shows 100% revenue recovery in FY24 two years on. This is broadly in line, as we said before, with IATA's expectations with how we're tracking. This assumes that the additional AUD 1 of revenue continues to translate at the same EBITDA rate as EBITDA. This will get CTM to AUD 810 million of revenue, and that will translate into AUD 265 million of underlying EBITDA. At that point, our EBITDA revenue margin will be around 32.7% on a full recovery. There's three takeaways to look at how we're going to, I guess, work our way through FY23 and FY24.
Firstly, we are currently trading at AUD 563 million revenue and AUD 143 million EBITDA, or at point 3 on this graph. This is our starting run rate for FY23, and revenue recovery is just shy of 70% of our full recovery rates. We're most of the way there. Secondly, the path to full recovery in FY24, which is how we get from point 3 to point 4, won't be in a straight line or linear. This is because there's well-publicized supply constraints that need to be resolved, as well as we all know China is still largely closed for travel. Point 3, our third point to take, is our full recovery assumption is in line with IATA in FY24 despite CTM outpacing IATA's recovery.
At that point, EBITDA will be roughly 75% larger than pre-COVID, and EPS will be over 30% greater than our pre-COVID record, which is excellent news for shareholders. If we go to slide 9, this is also a very important slide. We know there is much chatter on inflation, resource constraints in the industry, and supplier changes. We want to share the initiatives we have implemented and also the positive results we are obtaining from these initiatives. Our approach to offset these constraints is fourfold. Firstly, recruitment. The first thing we've done, we've welcomed back the vast majority of our staff through our alumni program, and we're really pleased and proud of that. But beyond that, we have invested very heavily in training programs, leveraging training academies in travel by using our own training content and fast-tracking our other training programs within CTM.
In fact, this has been very successful for us with 15% of our ANZ staff numbers at June coming from these programs, providing a new generation of very highly motivated people to forge a career at CTM. In fact, this has been so successful that we're rolling these same programs out to the rest of CTM throughout 2023. Secondly, it's revenue initiatives. The first point to make is at CTM, the majority of our large clients have contracted CPI fee increases already in their contracts. That's a natural buffer for us. Secondly, we are winning and retaining business at sustainable and profitable levels. Clients know that there's inflation in staff. Clients know there's time restraints and are prepared to pay for good service.
What I can say without exception is that every client we've retained through this program has had the same or increased fees, with the majority having increased fees through this process. That's important to note. Thirdly, as you can appreciate, being time constraints and information required, clients are really valuing going the extra mile services, which is highly relevant in this environment, and clients are prepared to pay for that. That's been very helpful for us. Thirdly, we have a tailwind that others really don't have. That's the synergy upsides that's going to reduce the recruitment pressure in FY23 coming from our transformational acquisitions that we made. Firstly, in North America with T&T, by the end of summer, we've integrated onto one system. We do expect that's going to give us improved scalability as we progress through FY23.
Secondly, in ANZ, we've made the Helloworld acquisition, and we've identified material improvements to the legacy Helloworld Corporate operating model, which will improve service through best practice process and automation as we progress through FY23 also. These both have to come. Lastly, as we always make point of, it's our investment in our technology innovation. As you know, we've said numerous times, high penetration of CTM technology enables better customer experience and better employee productivity. Secondly, we've got an obsession at CTM through FY23 objectives to drive automation, eliminate process that adds no client value because we want to free up expert time for the high-touch, high-value transactions that we know our clients appreciate. We've got a number of initiatives through the year that we touch on there, but we're doing a lot of our own robotic process automation within the business, chatbots.
We're enhancing all our products from our CTM portals, our apps, to make our client interaction easier. More importantly, this isn't just words. We're already getting great results. The most important measure in our business that measures productivity and essentially measures the incremental profit the business delivers is our revenue per person. In the fourth quarter of 2022, this was up 14% on pre-COVID highs of FY19. You can see that's clearly outweighing the inflation issues. More importantly to CTM, that hasn't come at the cost of client service. Our staff engagement remains at over 85% in all CTM regions, and this is our internal benchmark that we aspire for, and same with our client service level agreements.
The vast majority of our customers and our service within their agreed SLAs on a global basis, as we've said before, we had over 97% client retention in all CTM regions. I hope that makes that very clear in how we're offsetting these inflation resource constraints. If we come to slide 10, this really sums up the gains we're getting through the business by thinking ahead and planning ahead. What we've graphed here is our revenue per FTE since FY16 through FY19's record, and then we've put that against our 4Q22 annualized number. As you can see, that's up over 14% versus pre-COVID. That's because of two things. We're leveraging the scale of the transformational acquisition we made in North America, and of course, we're focusing on automation of non-client-facing process all the way through COVID.
The purpose of that is to free up time so our staff can focus on delivering the high-complex, high-value itineraries. I also want to share that there's material upsides still to come through to FY2024 in the next few years. Why? Because, well, firstly, the 4Q2022 annualized number includes an Asia that's mostly closed. Secondly, as we said earlier, North America and then later ANZ synergies, the post-acquisition integration, will flow through and build through FY2023 and 2024 in Australia as the recovery continues. Okay. Onto slide 11 and then onto slide 12, technology and ESG. What I want to do with technology is just highlight an additional organic growth lever we have been quietly building out for the last 18 months with key customers.
As our result of scale across the Atlantic post-Travel and Transport acquisition in 2020, we've created a new dedicated global servicing solution that we call TAB, the Transatlantic Bridge. It's a truly compelling offer to high-value Transatlantic customers. Now that North America is largely integrated, we're on one system. This solution brings all of our solutions together, enabling us to deliver a very high and consistent service offering to our customers across the Atlantic, compelling seamless technology, and full visibility and control over their travel programs and spend to ensure maximum return on investment. I also want to focus on the fourth column there, CTM Advisor. Again, a proprietary tool that helps us service a customer seamlessly and allows our travel agents to understand a customer using CRM tools to make it more intimate, to make our service more reliable, faster.
We think this is going to be a really big advantage to enhancing our value proposition across the Atlantic as we move forward. Onto slide 13, ESG. Now, we are very pleased to have appointed a global head of ESG and sustainability in FY22. As you can see, our pillars are centered around governance, planet, our people, and prosperity that delivers benefits to our staff, community, and stakeholders. Now, while CTM is itself a carbon-light business, the best way that we can make a difference to the planet is by putting our award-winning carbon tracking tools and Lightning booking technology in the hands of our thousands of accounts so that they can make better decisions to help the planet. Of course, we've launched these tools around the globe in FY22, and we're enhancing them materially through FY23.
Onto slide 14 and then where we talk about the regional performance of the business. We'll go around the grounds. Firstly, to slide 15, the group overview. Again, just reiterating, we highlighted the 4Q22 financial run rate. I want to reiterate, our starting run rate for FY23 is that 4Q performance annualized, which is roughly AUD 7.3 billion in TTV, AUD 563 million in revenue, and AUD 143 million in underlying EBITDA. I won't go through the other details, but there's four key takeaways that you want to touch on as we talk about forward guidance, activity, and around the grounds. Firstly, demand remains strong in all regions into June and post-June. Yes, there are supply constraints and record cancellations that are delaying full recovery, but it's clearly not stopping it. We see this as a temporary issue. Secondly, we've talked earlier, but we've estimated revenue levels for full recovery.
As we said, there's supply constraints. Our clients haven't recovered yet. China hasn't opened, and we know the Trans-Pacific impact will play out post-holidays. as we said before, we know that these impacts are quite a bit higher than 100%, but that's because CTM has had sustainable market share gains from winning business, and we've converted that into revenue because we've won profitable and sustainable business. Thirdly, our organic growth continues. In fact, our outcomes to year-to-date as of yesterday are really very strong. we've started FY23 with strong organic growth outcomes. lastly, as we've said on those earlier slides, we have a number of levers at our fingertips, as we discussed earlier, to offset any inflation, resource, and airline capacity constraints. that's what hopefully sets us apart when we're looking forward. this is all built into our forecasts.
Let's go around the grounds, and we go to slide 16 and start with North America. Now, North America, our 4Q22 recovered to 73% of pro forma FY19 levels. On the next slides, pro forma includes all the acquisitions of T&T and Helloworld Corporate into the baseline so it's like for like. Corporate travel demand remains strong in North America, with the region again leading the group in client wins. Now, despite capacity constraints, forward bookings post-summer vacation in September are strong. The region, as we said before, continues to win significant business in FY23. We also want to note, as we said before, the integration of Travel and Transport into CTM North America is now largely complete, enabling increased productivity and synergies to build progressively as activity recovers in FY23. That upside is still coming. Onto slide 17, Europe.
Much the same as North America, but even better. 4Q22 revenue recovered to 86% of pro forma FY19 levels. It's important to note that 4Q TTV is well above pre-COVID levels, with 4Q EBITDA also being a record result and the first region to surpass pre-COVID records. That's a good sign when it's not even fully recovered yet. It's important to also note that in Europe, it's a combination of new client wins and a broad recovery in travel that's enabled this strong financial result that's also in fourth quarter offset those one-off pandemic outcomes that we completed in October 2021. You can see that one-off impact has been more than reversed when you look at the fourth quarter in isolation, which is really positive for us.
Secondly, as we said before, like North America, this region is also winning significant new clients into FY23, and the regions are working together, as we talked about, Transatlantic Bridge to win clients together. Onto slide 18, ANZ. 4Q22 here, as you can see, TTV has already surpassed pre-COVID on a pro forma level, but revenue is at 64% of pro forma levels. Again, as you can be aware, most of you in Australia, as COVID-19 materially impacted the first three quarters, travel activity in ANZ recovered most rapidly in the fourth quarter. As you can see that jump between the third and fourth quarter on the slide, it is the most material jump we've experienced in any market, in any quarter in the history of the business.
As you can see, 4Q TTV is above pro forma FY19, but this is also because international supply remains subdued during the year, which has affected the revenue conversion. That's why ANZ revenue is only at 64% versus TTV recovery. However, that is climbing. As international travel becomes a larger share of our TTV, that revenue recovery has already recovered to 74% by June 2022. The acquisition of Helloworld Travel Limited's corporate entertainment business in ANZ was completed on 31 March 2022, and integration, as we talk about shortly, is well underway. In ANZ, management has an unprecedented focus on service and productivity gains through CTM's technology. Like the other regions, travel demand remains strong with TTV post-year-end at pro forma FY19 levels. In fact, even last week, it just keeps getting stronger, looking at last week's numbers.
Also, it's important to note, which we touch on shortly, post-year-end, we acquired the 1000 Mile Travel Group, which is an independent work-from-home consultant model focusing upon SME clients and the smaller end of SME clients. Onto slide 19, Asia. 4Q22 was Asia's first quarterly profit since COVID, driven primarily by Singapore. Singapore has experienced rapid growth in activity following the lifting of travel restrictions in the second half of 2022. The other good sign for us is that Asia continues to win clients at record rates. Additionally, competitors, particularly Southeast Asia, continue to exit the industry, which helps us as well. As you are all aware, we have a very large exposure to Greater China, particularly Hong Kong, and Greater China's approach to COVID-19 containment has continued to severely impact travel in the region.
Although the 12 August reduction in quarantine restrictions, which is last Friday, in Hong Kong to 3 days, has created a significant step up in demand, which we'll talk about later. We said the group expanded its Singapore operations with the acquisition of Safe2Travel, contributing from 1 May. That was designed to service a growing client base in Singapore. Post-year-end, CTM established our own office in Japan on 1 July 2022 to also address the growing demand from regional and global clients. It's important to note we haven't been sitting still through this lockdown. Our proprietary booking tool, Lightning, is now well entrenched in Asia. Lightning is in Chinese. Of course, it's in English, and it will be in Japanese by the end of quarter 1 2022. Now onto the acquisition activity during the year. We'll go straight, if we can, to slide 21.
Firstly, Helloworld Corporate. This is our material acquisition in the half. Now, CTM took ownership of the business 31 March 2022. Because Australia was in a lockdown, the business was under-resourced like the rest of our peers in the industry. Unfortunately for us, this coincided with, as we just said, the most rapid activity recovery in the quarter and through ANZ. Just to recap the acquisition assumptions. On a full recovery, we said the Helloworld group would contribute AUD 30 million to underlying EBITDA, and that was made up of AUD 22 million plus AUD 8 million in synergies. We also, because of the timing and the rapid recovery, that included an assumption of a 10% client loss provision. It's important to note. What actions have we already taken in this business? Firstly, we've added significant resources to raise the service standards at CTM levels.
We have more than doubled staff numbers from 125 staff at the time of acquisition to 285 by 30 June. That is still building post-year-end. We're nearly to the levels we aspire to be at. Secondly, we've fast-tracked office mergers in the first month of ownership to ensure we could leverage CTM executive support and capacity. Lastly, there's been a real rapid transition to CTM processes and systems for clients wherever possible. Some clients have just picked up and are using CTM instead of Helloworld processes. We're doing that wherever a customer wants that to happen. Importantly, the results have been really great for our business. There's been a substantial service recovery since acquisition. Secondly, the vast majority of key Helloworld clients that were up for tender have now re-signed past FY23, which means our client loss assumptions are on track.
Lastly, CTM automation and processes will drive further service and productivity gains as we progress through FY23 and FY24. Onto slide 22. We've had a few other acquisitions, smaller ones, and expansionary activity to support our strategy. Firstly, as we touched on earlier, Asia. We acquired Safe2Travel, which contributed from May 2022. It was part of our strategy to build a greater presence in Singapore but also to service our growing client wins in that area as we're winning regional and global travel. The integration is well underway, and we've already merged into one office. That's a really good sign for us. Secondly, as we said, we opened up in Tokyo, in Japan. It's the first time we've opened up an office organically for some years, which shows you, again, just how well we're starting to win business in the region.
It's going to support our growing stable of blue chip and regional and global clients that want to be serviced by CTM in Japan. It's also a key plank in our geographic strategy to support the strong organic growth expected not just in Asia but that we're winning through North American global business. Lastly, 1000 Mile Travel Group, which we acquired in July 2022. I like this business because it's a really successful independent consultant model or work-from-home model that demonstrates high growth coming out of the pandemic. They're doing really well. We believe that it's a standalone, but we're going to help them accelerate growth through not only our CTM buying power and technology but also our global network.
Just to understand this model, it's a really high-touch, high-service model allowing CTM to build market share in the SME but particularly the SSME or the smaller end of SME, which is a very high-value segment for CTM. Now, it's important to note this model is currently in ANZ, also in UK, but we have ambitious plans to expand this into North America in the second quarter of 2023. We'll talk about that as the year unfolds. Now we'll move onto our group financial summary, and we'll move straight to slide 24. I want to hand over now to our CFO, Cale Bennett, who'll run through this high-level group summary. Thanks, Cale. Thanks, Jamie. CTM has maintained monthly positive underlying EBITDA since we crossed that threshold in early 2021.
While the first three quarters of FY22 were impacted by COVID-19 variants, travel restrictions were relaxed in all regions except Asia by the end of the third quarter. This was the catalyst for a significant increase in activity
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Our statutory net profit after tax of AUD 0.8 million was an improvement from the loss of AUD 57.8 million in FY21. With outlined D&A expectations for FY23, the impact of the Helloworld Corporate acquisition and a lower Australian dollar are expected to see D&A up slightly in FY23 at AUD 49 million. Excluding acquisition-related client relationship amortization, our D&A runs at about AUD 3 million a month. Expectations for our effective tax rate in future periods should center around 27%. We'll now move on to slide 25, our non-recurring items. Non-recurring costs of AUD 12.2 million in FY22 relate exclusively to the Helloworld acquisition, subsequent integration work, and the now complete integration of T&T. The Helloworld corporate integration project is well underway, and we remain confident that this work will be complete within the envelope of AUD 5 million of cost disclosed at the time of the transaction.
We also recovered a small bad debt of AUD 0.6 million in Asia that had been written off during the height of the COVID impacts. In total, a net AUD 11.6 million in costs have been excluded from the underlying EBITDA as non-recurring items. If we can go on to slide 26, the balance sheet. CTM continues to maintain a very strong balance sheet. We have not utilized our committed funding facility since June 2020, and the company maintains significant cash holdings of AUD 142.1 million, including AUD 15.6 million of client cash at 30 June. We refinanced our debt facility during the half, reducing it to AUD 100 million and redomiciling it to Australia. In the process, we have managed to remove the security requirements under the facility, which increases flexibility for the business and will result in lower costs.
The group's receivables and payables have increased in line with client activity, which accelerated in the fourth quarter. Airline BSP payment timing was favorable for us at 30 June 2022, which helped the working capital position. This changes from period to period. If we can move on to slide 27, cash flow. Consistent with historic experience, our operating cash flow conversion remains strong. We remain focused on maintaining discipline around cash preservation, noting working capital requirements will increase as the recovery continues. Our corporate cash balance is sufficient to manage that eventuality with the added benefit of the business now generating net cash through profitability. Our investment in proprietary software will continue in FY23 at similar levels to FY22. If we can move on to slide 28, I'll now hand back to Jamie to talk to the outlook.
Yeah. Thanks, Cale. onto slide 29, if we can. This is our outlook. Firstly, as we said before, the FY24, we're targeting a full recovery, and there's four key assumptions there. Number one, it's 100% recovery will be broadly in line with the IATA recovery assumptions, although we're tracking ahead of those assumptions. Secondly, Greater China needs to open up its borders with no travel impediments by June 2023. We also assume that the current supply constraints that are occurring around the world will resolve themselves in the next 12 months. Of course, COVID remains endemic, which appears to be the medical consensus. What does this mean for FY23? Well, we know our starting run rate is an underlying EBITDA of AUD 143 million.
We expect every additional AUD of revenue to translate into AUD 0.50 of EBITDA from now until full recovery, as we again point out in that right-hand side chart. Again, this is what we've been able to achieve since breaking even 18 months ago. It comes down to revenue recovery. We don't expect the two-year revenue recovery pathway from where we are today being just below 70% to 100% revenue recovery going from point 3 to point 4 on the graph on the right-hand side to be in a straight line. Why? Hopefully, it's pretty obvious. We need Greater China, particularly Hong Kong, to remove all COVID constraints because that region will contribute around AUD 25 million of EBITDA on a full recovery. Second, we need the well-publicized supply constraints across the travel industry to be resolved.
Our expectations for FY24 seem fair, and we expect that both those issues will be resolved progressively during FY23. Just a reminder that this business has a seasonal profit skew to the second half due to northern hemisphere seasonality. If we can, onto slide 30 and just current trading conditions. There's a couple of points here I want to point out, three in particular. The first, as we said before, demand remains strong. As we said before, as we stated, fourth quarter 2022, it kept building through June. June revenues were recovering at 74% of our average full revenue target versus the fourth quarter at 69.5% of revenue recovery. Additionally, we have started the new financial year, we have strong client wins. Then thirdly, as we said, let's talk about what we are seeing, that strong demand.
Firstly, in North America and Europe, it's currently in vacation period, and that's a time when corporates don't really travel. It's more of a holiday time. But what we can say, that we're seeing forward bookings in September post-vacation are strong. This is very consistent with U.S. airline commentary that sees a switch from leisure travel to corporate as vacation times come to an end. Secondly, in ANZ, that is open, that is a good guide, we just see no evidence of supply constraint on domestic activity. In fact, TTV remains at pre-COVID levels with last week building on the week before. I remind you, we're already over 100%, and there's so much to come in domestic and international travel yet, which again supports the organic growth of the business over the years. Thirdly, Asia.
Hong Kong announced last Friday that quarantine is reduced from 7 to 3 days for locals from 12 August 2022. We've seen an immediate stepped-up activity increase. In fact, we're already 20% up on last week as of Tuesday. Two days, and we're already up that much. We'd expect to see a step change because we've seen it before. We just hope that that's a good precursor for progressively reducing that quarantine to nothing. The last point I want to do is point out our CTM client survey results in May that we conducted late May 2022. We had 773 clients respond from all over CTM, from all over the world. It's really important to share the feedback of that. 80% of our clients expect to spend the same or more, than not what they're spending but versus pre-COVID in FY23.
Secondly, 59% of those clients expected more face-to-face meetings in the coming 12 months and their experience in the month of May. Again, just another point that the recovery's still building. With that, I just want to quickly sum up. As we said before, we had very strong results converting the activity in a strong revenue but very strong PBT and NPAT, which I think is important. We talked about our financial position, our strong wins, our strong retention. With that, I think we'll pass back to Travis, our moderator, for further questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your question, please press star then 2. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. We ask that questions be limited to two per person to allow everyone a chance to ask their question. The first question today comes from Tim Plumbe from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, guys. I'll give it to two questions. Just the first question, if we can, Jamie, around your FY24 guidance. You've noted throughout the presentation continued strong new client wins over the last couple of years. You've also noted 80% of clients expecting to get back to pre-COVID levels. In regards to the AUD 265 million of EBITDA, can you help us understand what you're factoring in there in terms of structural change? How is that being offset by new client wins? Should we assume that the two are netting each other off as of today and therefore any new incremental wins in FY23 and FY24 add on top of that AUD 200 million?
I think you're on the right track. We're being prudent, right? We're going ahead of that. We're tracking ahead. That's from wins over the last few years. More importantly, that's revenue, right? It means we're not really winning. We're winning sustainable contribution from that business. I think what's really important is the slide we talked about, the productivity gains. That and all the inflation, all the they're already built in. Our assumption is that we're being prudent, but we don't know what's going to happen either. I think you're on the right track. For now, we've assumed that one offsets the other, and we'll see where we go.
Got it. The second question, maybe one for Cale, just in terms of cash flow. How should we be thinking about cash flow in the first half of 2023, thinking in particular around the working capital impact of that BSP payment cycle?
Yeah. Look, I think you need to look through half to half. I mean, our cash conversion will stay similar to what it has been historically, which is strong conversion. There's going to be some noise around each half. There's nothing that you need to know specifically in first half that is going to cause any particular issues. I think that working cap rewind will come, but it's largely baked in now, and we've got plenty of cash to manage it.
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. The next question comes from Mitchell Sonogan from Macquarie. Please go ahead. Mitchell, your line is open if you'd like to ask your question.
I think we can move on. I think Mitchell's line died.
No problem. The next question is from John O'Shea from Ord Minnett. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. Can you hear me okay?
Yes.
All good. Yeah. Thanks very much for taking my question. Mine sort of relates more to the labour shortages, which in the earnings release, you made a point of outlining that and the impact it's having on your business. Certainly here in Australia, it's obvious that that is impacting. Just wanted to see if you could comment on that in the context of if you think about it logically in this environment where your revenue's improving at a rapid rate, that you've still got your old cost base, if you know what I mean, and that would drive higher margins than one would ordinarily have. Is that the case? Is this a situation where eventually you'll need to restart the business to appropriate levels and those margins will come back and hence the earnings leverage we're seeing is a little bit higher than we would normally see?
Is that not the way to look at it? How would you describe the impact of the labor shortages and how that will flow through to the business in the coming year or so?
Yeah. I think there's two ways to look at it, John. I mean, firstly, it's more about the revenue. If revenue jumps by AUD 10 million, give or take, AUD 5 million, that's going to go to EBITDA. That's already baked in because while there's those issues, we've made it very clear that productivity gain and Australia's a small part of the business, right? It's significant, but it's not a big part of the business. What I'm trying to say is that as the business continues, we just employ. We've done out-of-the-box recruitment strategies. We're finding people from outside the industry with great service, great at handling what's the word? Really difficult industries from our last-minute crisis. Those sort of people are what we've gone and scout from outside the industry.
We're putting them through our academy at all of the Australian businesses, and that's been very, very successful. In fact, all the staff at the seniors here talk about the youth, the exuberance, just how they're helping, particularly starting with the mundane, more domestic type of issues and changes and those sort of things. I think we're covering it off really well. The proof of that is SLAs. The vast majority of our clients are being served in SLAs. We really don't have this problem in North America and Europe as they've recovered more meaningfully. Let's not forget Australia as you go back. I mean, what happened in that one quarter is that growth, when I annualized it, was 15 years of growth. You can appreciate the whole industry why it struggled.
Again, you've got to think of it that way now that we've got the scale, that it's all about revenue and how we convert that into EBITDA, and that's how we've modeled it. It's all built in.
Sure. I guess I'm thinking it more in the context that you might have to scale that up more in terms of the clients that actually service the staff to service that growing revenue base.
I mean, I think we are, but we're going to have to. It's like our costs go up. If we get AUD 1 of revenue, AUD 0.50 is profit, the vast majority of the cost is nearly all frontline staff, nearly all of it. We modeled that as we go through. I think you're probably overlooking there's huge scale benefits, right? I mean, T&T, we've got all in one system. We've got some scale there, costs out, but we haven't got what does that look like when you're servicing one system instead of three or four? These are material at large scale. It's over half our business. Same for ANZ. We're nearly at the resources we need now. We're very, very close. The guys have worked really hard on that.
We've explained what we're doing outside the box to find supply of people outside of travel, which we think is critical. We're not in that race to bargain for staff. Again, moving Helloworld onto our system, which is infinitely more automated and seamless, creates a lot better servicing. We've got all those things up our sleeve. One will offset the other. That's our assumption.
Thanks very much, Jamie Pherous.
Thank you. The next question comes from Sam Seow from Citi. Please go ahead.
Morning, all guys. Maybe just following on from that cost questioning. I mean, in Q4, it looks like you had 70% of your revenue recovered, but it looks like you overstaffed a bit there with about 80% of your cost base. Is that right? Thoughts around the profile of that cost base into FY23?
Was that staff? I mean, obviously, I think I just kept saying the same thing. I mean, look, we're not giving guidance, right? It's still pretty tricky. I think the best way to look at our business now is that for every new AUD 1 of revenue, AUD 0.50 is going to go to EBITDA. The AUD 0.50 cost is nearly all staff, nearly all. It's mostly frontline staff. That's the best way to explain it. Cale, we want to.
Yeah. I think just one thing to note, and we've experienced this a little bit over the last 15 or so months. When things scale up and scale down quickly, there is a little bit of an accordion in terms of we tend to hire slightly ahead of it. We might have been a little bit behind in some regions in fourth quarter, but it's not a free kick. We still have to service clients, and that requires a lot of overtime if we're understaffed. It's not like we can just perpetually understaff and continue to service the clients at a much lower cost. That is not the goal here. The goal is to try and bring people back with the activity. We'll be in front and behind at times, but generally, we're focused on that 50% incremental EBITDA margin.
Of course, servicing clients is a number one goal.
Correct. Cool. That's really good color, actually. Maybe just some thoughts on revenue margins in particular, I guess, Q4 in the U.S., just your thoughts around extrapolating those into FY23 or anything you'd call out in the region that happened in that Q4?
I think it's just two things. In the beginning, as we said, you just can't look at TTV yields. TTV is pretty meaningless because if you go back in time, people would book, cancel, book, cancel. Let it be zero TTV, but you get four bits of revenue out of it. So your revenue margin was overstated. We've said over and over, and nothing's changed. We expect revenue margins to settle down to long-term trends. While there's certain examples like in Australia where Qantas is reducing revenues, we still see that as an exception. If you look at North America as international comes back, we'd expect that revenue to come back. We also expect to get better outcomes from our scale. As we've said over and over, our discussions with suppliers are very positive for CTM because they see we're growing.
They know we're a much higher share of wallet than most, and they want to be part of that recovery. Again, I think the best thing I can say is we've put out FY24. We've put out what that terminal EBITDA margin will be, and that's how we're building. That's how we're recovering and planning and running our business.
Totally. Thanks for that, guys.
Thank you. The next question comes from Daniel Seni from QValue Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good night, guys. You made some comments earlier in the call on fee increases being achieved across some of the clients. Could you give some sense about the quantum of those fee increases being realized and how much of the client book that's been implemented across so far?
No. It's all confidential, but we've done I think the proof is always going to be in our revenue, our revenue recovery, and the ability to turn that into PBT and NPAT. I think by the end of this reporting period, that will define the difference between us and others. We sell on value, right? Return on investment. We've said this before. If you're spending AUD 10 million on travel, our fees are a very, very small part of that. So customers want to know how we're servicing that, how we make that AUD 10 million go down to AUD 8 million and being serviced well. That's our goal, and clients are prepared to pay for that. We'll let our numbers do the talking.
Thanks very much. Just one more. Clearly, airfare inflation's a big factor in the market at the moment. How much of an impact is that having on TTV, and what's your feel for when that might start to unwind, and is it a potential headwind in looking into FY23?
Yeah. I've said this before. You guys just don't get us. We're different from leisure. TTV doesn't matter to us. It's transactions. If you look at our revenue split, most of it's transactional. We've hardly got any volume-based, which means some volume-based will clearly come back, right, as international comes back. We're just not concerned about that. It's irrelevant to us because we make money on transactions. Again, I'll stress this. I think by the end of this reporting period. We've got others offshore that have reported quarterly results. What sets us apart is our ability to turn revenue into EBITDA, but particularly PBT because we sell on value. Everything we do is sustainable and profitable because clients want us to be here tomorrow.
Thanks, you guys.
Thank you. The next question comes from Abraham Akra from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Cale. Good morning, Jamie. Just two quick questions following on the inflationary comment. You made a comment in the slide deck that the majority of large clients, they have contracted CPI increases. What percentage of your revenue are covered by these large clients? Can you provide some color?
Yeah. I just can't disclose that. Again, but this is not just us. It's a norm for all large clients. It's an industry norm. I think it's a natural buffer. I think you've got to appreciate, again, I'll just reinforce it, everything that we're winning is sustainable and profitable. Everything we've retained has had the same or increases in fees without exception. I mean, I just think about it. Customers right now know the pressures of travel. They know that there's inflation because they sit in their own businesses, and they're prepared to pay for good service and good value delivery. I just can't stress that enough. If customers we're not winning everything. The way we see it in this market, knowing about inflation, we've taken a really shrewd approach.
If it's not profitable, we don't want to win that business because we want to value our resources, and they're scarce in the short term. Customers, we want to make sure that the service we're offering to those customers, that value that VIP, high expertise service that we're getting a return on those resources.
Yep. That's helpful. Also, as a follow-on to Sam's question, how should we be thinking about normalized revenue margins in North America and ANZ post the recent acquisitions in both regions? Will the acquired companies' revenue margins, I guess, approach that of the base CTM business, not that we're earning in FY19 broadly?
Look, I mean, I'm trying to make this as clear as I can. We had to move so quick to integrate. We're mixing everything up. What we've said in this very clearly is that every additional AUD 1 of revenue, AUD 0.50, will go to EBITDA. You guys can go backwards. If you pick what you think revenue's going to be, you can come up with a number. We've done that this far, and I can tell you, getting from break-even here is by far, far harder than getting from 70% full recovery to 100%. I can tell you that. That's infinitely easier than what we had to get through from break-even to 70%. We're saying that that same AUD 0.50 a AUD 1, and you can model that. And give or take, that's what we expect.
Yep. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Brian Han from Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. Two questions, if I may. In terms of seasonality in a normal year, can you please clarify one more time on your preferred revenue basis? Is the June quarter a particularly strong or a weak quarter looking across all your regions as a group?
Yeah. It's actually.
Second, Liam.
Sorry.
Sorry. You go.
My second question was, Jamie, can you talk about whether there's been any differences in the post-pandemic travel behavior between your larger corporate clients and your smaller SME ones, and whether one group has embraced the whole Zoom culture more than the other?
Sure. I'll touch on the fourth quarter and why it's probably the best quarter to do a runway from a seasonality point of view. Firstly, I want to just reinforce that it built throughout that period. We said 69.5% revenue recovery for the quarter, but it was 74% in June. More importantly, when I look at CTM, we have six strong months. It's September to mid-November, so two and a half months in the first period. Then it's really February to mid-May in the second period. We've got six strong months. Out of that last quarter, April to mid-May is one and a half of the three months, which is probably the best quarter to use it. The third quarter is not, and the first quarter is not because the third quarter's overstated, the first quarter's understated.
I hope that makes sense, and that helps you understand the skew. Your second question, post-pandemic, clearly, I think what we see is the clients that are finance, professional services related, and the large ones are the slowest ones to come back, without exception. Thankfully for us, we've got a low exposure to that client base. Our base is typically more SME. It depends what you call SME. GBT report calls SME out of AUD 20 million. We think that's pretty big for SME. Clearly, the bigger ones are slower to come back than the smaller ones. Does that answer your question?
Thank you. The next question. Oh, sorry.
Thank you, Jamie.
Thank you. The next question comes from Hayley Kim from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, Tim. Thanks for the presentation and taking my question. I guess my question's just on the client wins. You've highlighted the strong client wins in North America and in Europe. Are you able to give some color on how much of these wins relate to clients' wins from other competitors versus previously unmanaged companies that used to book and manage their own travels? I guess the industry feedback suggests that one of your major competitors has been losing a lot of clients over the last six months. If you can just talk about if CTM has been able to win any of these businesses as well, that'd be great.
Yeah. Look, I won't comment on competitors, but I think it'll be clear that we're winning a lot of business. We continue winning, and most of it's off peers. Also, you've got a lot of peers that are in difficult positions that can't reinvest in technology or people at the moment as well. We're taking advantage of all of those sort of things. Look, our model is very clear. We expect above-market growth, and we expect to translate that through to profit. Of course, we've got no debt. We're trying to set up what we think is a very sound business model, not just in travel but outside of travel. To answer your question, we're winning it off a lot of different people, including that one that you're probably intimating to.
Okay. Thanks. I guess my second question is just on your client survey. Your survey suggests that 80% of your clients expect to spend the same or more in FY23. I understand that you've said revenue's more important over TTV, but do you have a feel for how much of that relates to the inflation in travel with the high ticket prices for hotels and flights versus the actual volume of the travel?
Yeah. The question actually was on travel activity, on trips, which is what we look for, not TTV.
All right. Great. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Sona Fernandez from Jarden. Please go ahead.
Hi, Jamie. Cale, just a couple of questions from me. The first is, on slide 9, you've identified some material improvements to the Helloworld model. Can you just provide some color on what those actually would involve?
Yeah. Yeah. I think it's two-fold. It's just that their model, it just wasn't as automated as ours. Clearly, we've got end-to-end technology that we own that's proprietary. I think that's the upside. The immediate short-term side was office mergers, right? We've moved everyone under one roof. We've eliminated the rental cost. Our key focus in that market is throwing resources at those clients, which we talked about, which we've done a really good job at. In fact, as we said, we talked about how many staff we've had in a very, very short period, our whole focus on client service, and we'll let those other things take care of themselves in time.
Is there any difficulty on the client end? Obviously, they've integrated onto the Helloworld platform, and now they've got to move onto the CTM platform. Are there any issues doing that transition over?
No. I mean, it's up to the customer. We're saying to customers, "Do you want our platform, or do you want the current platform?" We're really client-facing on this. For ones that want it, we're implementing it like it's a new customer. For ones that don't, we're servicing them. Don't forget, we've got our Lightning booking tool, and it's really well regarded. A lot of people are moving across just because of that. They've been on other tools, and some of their very big marquee clients are doing that as well. That's very pleasing. Of course, as we said before, when it's on our own tech suite, it's just a lower cost of service, a much better experience for customers, and that's in our interest, in our customer's interest.
Yep. Okay. Thank you. Just one more for me. The fourth quarter 2022 TTV for ANZ and revenue was quite strong. How much of that was organic, and how much of that was from Helloworld?
It's hard to break down. I wish I could give it to you, but we've already merged and moved clients. I mean, I'd say Helloworld, just a bit under half was Helloworld, a bit under half, but not revenue. That was TTV. Again, I keep saying we're not too interested in TTV anymore. It's a bit irrelevant because of inflated ticket prices. I think we're really focused on revenue. As you can see, it's still a whopping increase, and that's why in this market, the whole travel supply chain from airlines, airports, our peers, it's been a difficult three or four months. We're at the end of that.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks.
Thank you. That does conclude the time allotted for questions. I'll hand the conference back to Mr. Pherous for closing remarks.
Yeah. Thank you, everyone, for listening. Have a good day. Of course, we're in Sydney the next 2, 3 days if people want to see us. Thanks again for listening.
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.