EVT Limited (ASX:EVT)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Feb 15, 2024

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Hi everyone. Before we get started this morning, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land I'm speaking to you from this morning: the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. I would like to pay my respects to elders past and present, and I'd like to acknowledge any and all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people joining us today. Thanks for everyone for making time this morning to join the call. In terms of the first half overview, we're pleased with the revenue and earnings growth achieved in hotels and entertainment, underpinning the group revenue up 8.6%. As you know, Thredbo was impacted by the worst winter weather conditions for nearly 20 years, which impacted group EBITDA result of AUD 96.1 million, down 10.8% on prior year.

This is a good result given the AUD 19.2 million reduction in Thredbo EBITDA due to the unusual weather conditions and the delay in some blockbuster film releases due to the Hollywood strike action. Net debt of AUD 300.6 million remains below pre-COVID levels, the balance sheet remains strong, and positions us really well for future growth. Based on the half-year result, the Board has declared a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.14 per share, which will be paid in March. I'll cover the outlook for the second half later in the presentation. Turning now to the half-year EBITDA overview. Normalized EBITDA was AUD 96.1 million, with growth in earnings from all divisions except Thredbo. The entertainment result was strong, with EBITDA growth of 19.6% on the prior half. Barbie and Oppenheimer performed particularly well, with our premiumization strategy continuing to deliver record results when we have good films.

I'd like to highlight that this result has been delivered with 12 fewer cinemas as part of our fewer better strategy. The hotels' EBITDA result was also strong, up 4% on the prior half-year. This is a great result considering since 2019 we've divested or closed hotels, which previously contributed around AUD 6.7 million of EBITDA in the half. The Thredbo result was impacted by the weather conditions. 50% of snow runs were able to open compared to 100% in the prior year, and the season closed two weeks earlier. As a result, the result delivered EBITDA of AUD 22.1 million. The group's unallocated corporate costs were in line with prior year despite market cost challenges, and we continued to invest in new capabilities and growth areas of the business.

Reported net profit after tax and individually significant items was AUD 27.1 million, down AUD 69.6 million, but the prior year included the benefit of AUD 55 million in property sales and other one-off items. Turning now to the entertainment division. Entertainment group revenue was AUD 386 million, up 12.7%, and EBITDA of AUD 36.9 million. The entertainment result was achieved despite an estimated 10% impact on market box office from release delays relating to the Hollywood strikes in the first half. In the first half, Barbie and Oppenheimer certainly helped grow overall admissions, up 12.4% on prior year. But we're experiencing record results when high-quality blockbuster titles are released and, like-for-like admission periods, continue to demonstrate good margin improvement despite cost pressures. Importantly, data, both externally and internally, demonstrates that cinema is a preferred choice of entertainment when there's pressure on discretionary spend, which clearly benefits our business.

We've achieved growth in admissions, revenue, and EBITDA across Australia, New Zealand, and Germany. Australian admissions were up 10.3%. New Zealand admissions were up 23.3%, assisted by the opening of Event Cinemas Queensgate late in the prior half-year. Pleasingly, New Zealand also returned to positive EBITDA, up AUD 2 million on the prior half. German admissions were up 11.7%, while EBITDA was up 2.3% on the prior half. The prior half also included Culture Fund German government subsidy support that was not repeated this year. We continue to see marginal growth across all territories when we have good films. EBITDA per admission growth was achieved in Australia, New Zealand, and Germany, adjusting for subsidies. Our premiumization strategy has continued to deliver growth in yield, resulting in record results in average admission price and spend per head, which you can see on the slide.

In Australia, AAP and spend continued to grow, and we are well ahead of pre-COVID, up 25.7% and 53.1% respectively. AAP was up 3.4%, and SPH, or spend per head, was up 0.8% on prior year. In New Zealand, a similar result with AAP, up 47.3% and spend up 51.7% on pre-COVID. AAP was up 4.3%, and spend was marginally down 0.4% on prior year for New Zealand. In Germany, AAP was up 9.6%, and spend was up 39.8% on pre-COVID. AAP was up 0.7%, and spend per head was up 3.1% on prior year. These are really good results considering the change in mix of films, less 3D contribution, and a greater proportion of box office from world, family, and mid-tier films, which generally deliver less spend per head. Turning now to the ventures division. We've got a strong property portfolio, most recently valued at AUD 2.3 billion.

In the half, we increased our interest in Rydges Christchurch to 100% and acquired a property in Fremantle for a planned conversion to a new LyLo, with works expected to commence in financial year 2025. Our major developments continue to progress. As previously indicated, we expect the first of our major property developments to be 525 George Street in Sydney. The development comprises a 43-story mixed-use development with an integrated hospitality and entertainment offer, prime George Street retail, a premium event cinema, a hotel with around 280 rooms and conference space, and residential apartments, around 100 apartments, all of which are 2-3 bedrooms. The Stage Two DA was approved in May 2023, and we're currently considering funding options for the development and finalising the detailed design documentation to assess construction costs in financial year 2025.

In relation to the 458-472 George Street development, we previously secured DA approval for the podium component, which includes the extension of the QT Sydney hotel, and we've commenced the planning for a hotel tower above the podium and aim to prepare a DA submission for that this year. We've also been launching new experiences, including the conversion of Limes Hotel Brisbane to Australia's first LyLo, which is expected to open in June. We submitted a DA for a LyLo development on the underutilized land at QT Gold Coast, opened IMAX Sydney in October, which is already in the top 10 of all cinemas in Australia despite having only one auditorium. We also signed an agreement with IMAX for two additional IMAX screen conversions in Australia and four in Germany by the end of 2025.

We opened two new ScreenX auditoriums in Robina and Campbelltown and made significant progress on the installation of Thredbo's new Alpine Coaster, which is targeted to open this winter. We also completed an upgrade of our ever-popular QT Melbourne Rooftop Bar. Planning work continues for our key location and premiumization upgrades, including the upgrade of Rydges Queenstown, including seismic rectification works, the upgrade of QT Canberra, and we have premium cinema upgrades in Australia, including Campbelltown, Castle Hill, Innaloo, Marion, and Burwood in the second half, and in Germany at Bremen and Dortmund. Thredbo's snowmaking upgrade and mountain biking trail expansion continues, and we're planning for the replacement of the Snowg ums chairlift. Turning now to the travel division. As previously commented, the Thredbo winter season did not go our way, and we had the lowest natural snowfall in nearly 20 years, coupled with marginal snowmaking conditions.

Despite the marginal conditions and shortened season, our new business model resulted in winter yield up 76% on pre-COVID and continued to provide guests with a more premium experience, which was reflected in our high customer sentiment scores. Thredbo has now been recognized for the seventh year in a row at the World Ski Awards as Australia's best ski resort, which is an incredible achievement and credit to the team. The summer season started strong, with strong demand growth for pre-season season pass sales. However, once again, poor weather conditions impacted the ability to trade, with closures during the key Christmas trading period. Overall, while demand for mountain biking remains strong, the resort had an increase in days closed compared to the prior year, resulting in a 10.7% decrease in revenue in November and December. Turning now to the hotel division. The hotels' division delivered good revenue and EBITDA growth.

Note that we have now included LyLo rooms in our owned hotel occupancy rate and RevPAR statistics in this presentation. Owned hotel occupancy was up three points to 76.2%, still below pre-COVID levels but growing. On a like-for-like basis, excluding LyLo, occupancy was up 2 percentage points. In the half, record room rates were achieved. However, with the inclusion of LyLo and a greater contribution from Rydges driven by the reopening ramp-up period of Rydges Melbourne, the overall owned hotel average rate was marginally down on last year. A record RevPAR was achieved, up 1.2% on prior year. All our brands are continuing to deliver more than their fair market share. We've grown the network to 80 hotels in December, and we're confident that will continue to grow. In terms of our key hotel brands, rate growth on record year levels across each brand.

Like-for-like occupancy grew 0.7 percentage points for Rydges. The decrease on this table reflects the ramp-up period for Rydges Melbourne. Each of our brands achieved record RevPAR results. Rydges RevPAR was up 18.9% on pre-COVID levels and up 0.7% on prior year. QT RevPAR was up 23.9% on pre-COVID and up 2.7% on prior year. Atura RevPAR was up 44.7% on pre-COVID and flat with prior year. The yellow line on the chart represents pre-COVID FY19 occupancy. Occupancy is still recovering to mid- to high 70s compared to around 80% pre-COVID. As you can see, occupancy levels are getting closer to the pre-COVID level, particularly in the peak trading months of October and November. Market-wide occupancy was up in most markets, with the exception of Canberra, Gold Coast, Adelaide, and regional New South Wales and Wellington in New Zealand.

The post-COVID boom, blip, and domestic leisure travel appears to be normalizing, but we're still ahead of pre-COVID levels. We're seeing growth from all other market segments, which should support continued growth in occupancy in 2024. As discussed, we've achieved record rates, and rates are still well above the pre-COVID levels, as shown on this chart. Market-wide rates were up in most markets, with the exception of Melbourne, Canberra, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Auckland, and Wellington. Special events are and continue to be a key driver of rate growth, with customers willing to accept high rates at times of peak demand, such as this month's Taylor Swift concerts in Melbourne and Sydney. Rates are likely to come off a little as occupancy grows, given different segments of the market returning, including inbound groups and crew business. However, we still expect the rates to be well ahead of pre-COVID.

As you know, our hotel strategy has evolved over the past few years to enable expansion. We have a hotel solution that meets the needs of the entire market, from premium to budget experiences, from leveraging one of our owned brands or maintaining an independent brand and leveraging our capabilities. Our owned brands include QT Hotels, recognized as a leader in premium boutique experiences, and continues to deliver awards. Rydges, where we have set a new standard for the brand with Rydges Melbourne, and we're pleased to have secured the Tank Stream Hotel in Sydney, which will be relaunched as a Rydges Australia Square in mid-2024. Atura, our affordable design-led brand, and the LyLo brand, a game-changing lifestyle budget accommodation experience. In 2021, we launched the Independent Collection by EVT, which enables owners to retain their own brand.

Or more recently, we've been creating a brand for them, and they leverage our management expertise. This is proving successful. We're confident that our brands can add value to owners in international markets. We're investing in building our brand awareness and developing relationships in Southeast Asia. However, we're realistic that establishing a presence will take time, and we're going to be patient for the right opportunities. In the half-year, we were delighted to add 3 hotels to this collection: the 134-room stunning Hotel Telegraph in Singapore, which we took over in December/January, and the 59-room Harbour Rocks Hotel and the 63-room Old Clare Hotel in Sydney, which we are now managing as part of the luxe tier of the Independent Collection. We're excited about LyLo, as what we're creating is unique in the budget market segment. The results from Auckland have exceeded expectations.

As an example, LyLo Auckland is the number one hotel booked on Booking.com in Auckland. Next for LyLo is the conversion of Limes Hotel in Brisbane to LyLo Brisbane, which will include 82 LyLo pods, 5 private family rooms, a coworking and co-living space, and we expect to open in June. We also identified an opportunity to develop a flagship LyLo on underutilized land at QT Gold Coast. We submitted the development application earlier this month and expect the approval process to take around 6-9 months. LyLo Gold Coast will include around 200 pods, 60 private en-suite rooms, a poolside Miss Lucy's bar and restaurant, and coworking and co-living spaces for guests. We're working on expansion of LyLo Auckland due to demand to add 120 pods and 8 family rooms to level 4 of the property, together with a communal kitchen and shared spaces.

This is expected to be open later in the 2024 calendar year. Finally, we acquired 19 Essex Street in Fremantle, and this will be converted to a new LyLo, with construction expected to commence in financial year 2025. Many of you will be really familiar with our strategy now. Our three strategic goals that guide the group are to grow revenue above market, maximize assets, and business transformation. You can see from the half-year results that we've been able to grow revenue above market through smarter pricing, launching new experiences, and listening and improving on customer feedback. We see hotels' expansion as a priority growth segment for our group. We continue to maximize our assets and grow property values, investment in priority locations, and premiumize our upgrades, helping us to achieve this.

We'll look to divest non-core assets when the market timing is right and we can achieve the best outcome. The properties we acquire and retain are focused on key city assets that are or can be converted to support hotel growth. We're implementing business transformation initiatives constantly that have assisted in offsetting unprecedented cost increases, while also delivering material improvements in our culture, community, and environment initiatives. Looking now ahead to the second half, we expect a record second-half result in hotels, assisted by Rydges Melbourne and occupancy continuing to recover. In Thredbo, the strong summer pre-sale demand has been impacted by weather conditions forcing closures, and as a result, summer performance is tracking below last year, and we expect the second-half summer months to be loss-making. The 2024 winter performance will be subject, as always, to weather conditions.

If we get good conditions, the business model will deliver strong results. In entertainment, last year's Hollywood strikes has impacted global studios' production schedules and film release dates. Looking ahead to the second-half film lineup, we expect that around 30% of potential second-half box office has moved out of the period due to last year's Hollywood strikes. This considers a delay of releases like Deadpool 3 and Captain America, Spider-Man, Mission: Impossible, Disney's Snow White, and Elio, etc.

Comparing this to last year, you can see that we're also cycling some strong titles, including Avatar: The Way of Water, which grossed AUD 44.8 million in the second half, and the Super Mario movie for families, which grossed AUD 51.5 million at the Australian box office. Key titles that we see in the current second-half lineup include Dune: Part Two, the Mad Max sequel Furiosa, Despicable Me, Kung Fu Panda, and Inside Out.

It's important to also highlight that the European Championships will be held in Germany in June and July, which will negatively impact CineStar performance over the summer months. As a result, we expect Germany to break even in the second half. This also adjusts for prior year German government subsidies. So we expect the second half to perform below the second half of FY23 and, as always, is subject to the appeal of films when released. Our teams have done an incredible job transforming the way we do business to offset energy wages and other inflation pressures and still invest in areas for growth, and we're going to continue to do so. Overall, we expect the second half to be down on the prior comparable period due to the external factors outlined. We are confident that these headwinds are short-term and will be well-managed.

The hotel division is performing very well, with more opportunity for growth, and when we get reasonable weather conditions and a film lineup normalizes, we expect to deliver strong growth. Thank you, and I'll now take any questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press Star One on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press Star Two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Russell Gill with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Russell Gill, your line is now live. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Hi Jane. Thank you very much for taking my questions. This is Teo here from JP Morgan. Firstly, just around the outlook commentary for the entertainment sector. Where you say the Hollywood strikes to impact second-half box office by around 30% against PCP, does this refer to revenue down 30%? And if so, how will you maintain operations to offset the decline without experiencing significant deleverage?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

So good question. It does represent box office, which is revenue, for the second half. And in terms of how we operate, we've got a certain fixed cost base which we need to cover, which was very well-adjusted post-COVID. And I think everyone's seen the benefits of that change in model. And really, it's just going to be about flexing our casual workforce, flexing our operating hours, and continuing to look for ways to find smaller mid-tier films and really promote world films, which are a growing proportion of box office in the first half of this year. And we'll need to look for that in the second half. But as we've highlighted, offsetting the blockbuster titles, that's not a task that can be done in the second half.

Speaker 9

And also the outlook for Germany, when you refer to breakeven, is this on an EBITDA/NPAT/EBIT line?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yes, it's on an EBITDA line.

Speaker 9

EBITDA line. Okay. And then just finally, one from me. Just around the CAPEX profile, how are we to think about it going into second half and then FY25, just regarding the new developments at George Street? When will we know if this is going ahead and also kind of for how much?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Right. So I've just presented that it would be in the financial year 2025 that we're assessing the costs of the 525 George Street project. So we have a wee way to go before we're going to give you an indication of that because there's some work to do beforehand. In terms of immediate CAPEX, we had guided to around AUD 160 million of CAPEX. We think it'll come in lower than that at this point in time, around about AUD 120 million. And that's really just due to a couple of factors. But primarily, it's just a delay in the supply of goods to complete projects into the country and just some reprioritizing, as we always do, when we look at numbers as they come in and assess projects.

Speaker 9

Okay. That all makes sense. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Han with Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

Jane, can you please elaborate on some of the drivers of the first-half EBITDA margin decline for hotels?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yes. I think you can primarily point to the ramp-up of Rydges Melbourne. So we had previously indicated that it would take around two years because we're reopening a new hotel and things like big conferences, it's a big conference hotel, they don't book on the day. They book kind of a year out for that conference. So there's been a ramp-up period of Rydges Melbourne, which has put a drag on the EBITDA margin in that period. And really, there has been some adjustments. Well, there's been a small movement in getting labor costs right as occupancy increases. But primarily, I'd point to the ramp-up of Rydges Melbourne.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

For those temporary factors, do you expect them to sort of continue in the current half?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Well, Rydges Melbourne is still ramping up. So we do expect there to be, it's going to get better, but as we said, it will take two years to kind of get to the normalized point, which will still be above, obviously, pre the upgrade. But we do expect those to continue into this half.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

Okay. And lastly, again on hotels, Jane, can you please talk a bit about the competitive dynamics, and especially the supply situation, for both your QT at the premium end and Rydges in the mid-market?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

So I suppose everybody's looking at Melbourne with the increase in supply as the key market. And as we've highlighted before, a lot of that increased supply is in the outskirts area of Melbourne rather than the key locations where we are. And we feel that where our QT locations are, they're prime locations, and we're not seeing a whole lot of competition going up around us that would impact that at this point in time. So we're not using increased supply outside of maybe a regional market in Albury, where we've seen increased supply, and a smaller market have a small impact. But outside of that in our key cities, we think our locations are proving to be great locations.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

Okay. Thanks, Jane.

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Woodgate with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Oh, hi, Jane. Can you hear me okay? Hi, Jane. Can you hear me?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Oh, now I can't hear you.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

You can't hear me?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Oh, I can hear you now. Yep.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Okay. Great. So maybe just following on from the Rydges Melbourne comment, can you call out what the incremental costs Melbourne Rydges actually put through the P&L this half and what the earnings were?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

No. We don't release information on individual hotels.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Okay. No worries. And then just on Rydges, you're talking to growth in the second half. So what does that assume in relation to occupancy growth and room rate compression? And I guess, could you call out what you're seeing with room rates to start the year?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yeah. We do think that rates will, I mean, across our brands, we managed to hold and get some growth, which was really good. But as occupancy increases because occupancy increases coming from international and it is a slow increase because of the capacity constraints still in the hotel industry. But it's coming from international inbound group business, which is coming in at a much higher rate than pre-COVID but still a lower rate overall, and also crew business recovering. And international travel is moving, but there's still capacity constraints. So we do see that rates might come off a little bit. We're aiming to hold them, but they may come off a bit, and that our RevPAR growth is coming from occupancy.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Okay. Great. And then just one more on hotels. So the owner was Hotel Telegraph in Singapore. Why'd they choose EVT? And are there any other owners in the managed agreements network who have overseas hotels that you could tap into that network?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

I mean, why wouldn't you choose EVT? I think that's what you would expect me to probably say that. Look, we're seeing a good opportunity for us at this point in time because the larger global brands have created new brands and extended. But as an owner and operator of a property, that segment of the market, they don't want one company with a new brand still trying to tell them they're going to look after their hotel as an independent hotel, if that makes sense. So the larger brands have got so many brands in those markets as a block. I think we're a fresh opportunity. We're somebody that's going to totally focus on the performance of those properties, and we've got enough brands to introduce and make sure that we now cover the types of properties that we would like to manage.

So Hotel Telegraph has been a great one, and it was a competitive process. So we are, as I've indicated in the presentation, putting some investment and resource into Southeast Asia to start to build more relationships. But we are going to be selective about the type of hotels that we bring into the group so that it does complement the brands and we can deliver good results.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Okay. Great. Then just quickly on Thredbo, I appreciate you called out the revenue impact due to missed days for mountain biking. But sorry, you called out how much revenue was down year on year. But are you able to actually call out the specific revenue that was lost due to the lifts being closed during that period?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

I think I highlighted that we're down 10.7% in November/December revenue for summer due to those days lost.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Yeah. Okay. So it's just exclusively basically due to that. Okay.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Basically, key peak trading days, because of wind conditions, we were closed and partially closed through that period.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Yeah. Sure. And then just last question for me because I mentioned a bunch of people eager to jump in. When do you think the film slate will get back to pre-COVID levels or even just, say, of the levels in the last six months? I imagine there's some degree of dialogue with the exhibitors. I don't know if you do have any visibility on their production intentions. But yeah, any sort of color there would be helpful.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yeah. Sure. I mean, good question. The simplest answer to that is the studios are still working out what their lineups are doing and kind of scheduling films and talent to complete production post the strikes. Our indication from the studios is they expect to have a better view at the end of March, which is their quarter one this year. We have the CinemaCon, which happens in April in the U.S., and that's the period of time where all of the major studios come out and talk about confirmed release slates. So I think that's a guiding time for us to get more certainty around what's in and what's out. Because with the strikes, you can imagine they are picking up productions that are on the shelf, productions that are in progress, and they're going, "Which ones can we make faster? Who's available? How do we schedule that?

And what happens?" There's a lot of cross-studio talent that needs to be dealt with. So the best guide for us is end of March. CinemaCon in April should give us a good view. We're in regular contact with them. If you read external media and you hear what's being talked about, really, everyone's framing 2024 as the strike-impacted year. When we look ahead, I mean, in 2025, you've got Mission: Impossible, Avatar, some really strong titles coming out from kind of end of quarter one calendar year 2025. It seems to be quite a consistent flow of really good titles, very strong titles from that point forward. But I'd be hesitant to say all those dates are firm at this point in time.

I think CinemaCon in April, where we get to directly meet with all the studios and really look at production schedules and lineup, will be a good guide. I would imagine there'll be a lot of media out of that, which will help support providing a little more insight into that.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Yeah. Got it. Okay. Thanks very much. I'll jump back in the queue.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sam Teeger with Citi. Please go ahead.

Sam Teeger
Head of Australia Small Caps Equity Research, Citi

Hi, Jane. Hope you're well. Just in terms of the guidance for second-half box office to be down 30% on PCP, how much do you expect your premiumization strategies and market share gains would offset?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

I don't think, well, if you don't have the films, you can't offset it. So you can see the growth, and we've been sharing stats on the growth we've had to date with our premiumization strategy. But Sam, you can't replace 30% of box office with a premiumization strategy. So on each of the films we get, the kind of numbers we've shared with you, we expect to continue to get the growth, but it's not going to offset the 30%. I hope that's answering your question.

Sam Teeger
Head of Australia Small Caps Equity Research, Citi

Yeah. That's helpful. Thanks. When are the next major property revalues? I guess, what % of the property will you be revaluing this financial year?

Gregory Dean
Company Secretary and Director of Finance and Accounting, EVT

Sam, it's Greg. Look, we revalued the main sort of chunk of the portfolio last year. There's a few that are still outstanding. But normally, previously, we did a three-year cycle, whereas we think we'll move to a two-year cycle. So it'll probably be June next year that we'll do again the big chunk of gain for you.

Sam Teeger
Head of Australia Small Caps Equity Research, Citi

Okay. And then last one, just on your hotel expansion strategy, I guess some of the recent acquisitions have been management agreements. What's the appetite to buy hotels, or do you want to keep your capital for your main developments?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

We would look to acquire hotels, and we're definitely doing that with LyLo, as you can see, to grow our footprint in Australia and New Zealand. In international markets, we see that as management agreements or the like.

Sam Teeger
Head of Australia Small Caps Equity Research, Citi

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nicholas McGarrigle with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Hi, Sam. I just want to get a better sense of profitability expectations. You've given a number of guides for Germany that you expected to break even in the second half. And I guess box office there is already off to a really bad start and likely to get worse around the Euro. But in Australia, I just can't see how you can take enough cost out to avoid that segment being close to break even in the second half. Can you give us a better sense of how that would be managed?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

I can't give you a better sense the more of the indicators we've given you, but we're probably a little more optimistic than you are with that shift and the initiatives that we have done.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

But presumably, you have to really flex the variable costs because obviously, your fixed overheads are as they are, and your film rent is variable. But the other element is just the other variable costs. So is it a matter of reducing capacity, closing cinemas for periods, kind of really going hard on adjusting the network when things are quiet?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yeah. I think, Nick, remember when COVID, we were closed and we had zero revenue. We had to reopen, and we had better-than-break-even models. We are much more agile than we were pre-COVID. So it is a number of those things. It's operating hours. It's flexing our casual workforce, energy savings, you name it. Every single cost line we go through to try and find ways to help offset it. But as I've highlighted, we're saying box office could be off 30% subject to the appeal of films in the second half. We can't make up for that, but we are definitely more confident in our ability to deliver a better EBITDA result with that impact than we would have been able to pre-COVID.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Yeah. Okay. And then I guess when you look across the business, you've had impacts from poor snow, wind. Maybe there was some rain. There was some heat. There was strikes. In the cinema and Thredbo divisions, you've got a lot of non-controllable elements. In the hotels, you've got a lot more predictability and asset backing. Is there any further thinking at the Board level about how to unlock that value for investors, make it clearer between the hotel portfolio and the cinema portfolio, or potentially separating the two?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Look, we continue to evaluate the strategy. Right now, we are focused, as I've said, and I've probably reinforced a few times in this presentation, that we see hotels as our growth priority, and we see plenty of opportunity in that segment. That's what we're looking at. With the cinema segment, it's not strikes as a new thing. Strikes is an outcome of COVID. The studios made statements in COVID, which disrupted the creative community, which resulted in the strikes. So it's kind of a delayed COVID hangover, and that will recover. We can already see that with the strong titles I alluded to just a little bit before. And Thredbo will be Thredbo, right? Except I highlighted the yield improvements that we've been able to deliver. The new business model is going to deliver us some stunning results on good conditions.

We know that those good conditions will come. But it's just a variable business.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. All right. Thanks for that. I think in terms of maybe just the hotel segment to finish off with, just where your inbound business is versus where it was pre-COVID in terms of how recovered do you think that segment is? And I guess what kind of is that potentially a pressure? As that recovers, is that bringing RevPAR down or up, do you think? Oh, sorry, ADR specifically.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yeah. We think it's recovering slowly. We point to airline capacity and pricing as a reason for that. It is recovering slowly, and it does come in at a lower rate. It really is rate which will come off a little bit as occupancy recovers, which gives us the RevPAR growth.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

All right. Cool. Thanks for taking questions.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Russell Gill with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, Jane. Thank you. Just one more from me. I was just wondering about what kind of full capacity for admissions looks like going forward. Just as you mentioned before, also with the fewer-better strategy, the closure of 12 cinemas, how would you think of admission numbers going forward?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Admissions are a factor of content more than they are of seats. We're reducing occupancies but putting in a more premium seat, which enables us to charge a higher price. There's different seats and different pricing and different allocations to cinemas based on the demographic and location of that cinema. The number one driver of admissions is content. That will always vary up and down. Clearly, we are reducing seats and increasing price to deliver a better outcome than having more seats at a lower price.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Your next question comes from Brian Han with Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

Jane, I understand Germans are crazy about soccer, and Euro 2024 is a big deal. But it is starting in June. So does one month have such a big impact on the whole second half, or is it just that there's less flexibility to its cost base and labor?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Well, actually, if you look at the second half and you look at our lineup, a lot depends on June. So June is a big month because that's the summer period when releases are made in the domestic U.S. market. In Germany, we're expecting it to have a bigger impact because it is actually in Germany this year. And also, what's happened is the local film production, they avoid even releasing in the June, July dates. So the great local content, which is a good contributor to German box office, stops because they want to avoid having people choose to go out and watch games and be in the bars and dine and be part of the celebrations. And they want to retain that box office. So we get the double whammy in that period in Germany by not having the local films as well as the Hollywood blockbusters.

And also, the number that we've given you has adjusted for German government subsidies in the prior year. So there are a couple of things happening in there.

Brian Han
Director of Equity Research, Morningstar

Gotcha. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Woodgate with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Yeah. Hi. Just wanted to follow up on the question regarding how you manage the cost base of cinemas. So maybe just for our modeling, it might help if you could call out or give some color on the split between variable and fixed costs in that division now that you've made those changes through COVID.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Look, we don't disclose that level of detail. And you know what? Even coming to a point of saying circa 30% impact on second-half box office, that's going to be variable, right? Because we're all sitting here with some great films on paper and gaps, and that's going to move. So the pointers we've given are the only pointers we can give at this point.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Thank you. And then just finally, was non-traditional content a reasonable contributor during the half? I mean, I think some of the PDs have been talking to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé's films as quite positive contributors. What have you seen there?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Oh, exactly the same. I mean, look, our share of Taylor Swift was phenomenal with the IMAX screen. But they are still what we would call small films. So they're below AUD 10 million Australian box office. So they definitely contribute, but they don't make up for kind of a AUD 60 million-AUD 70 million Australian box office title. And yeah, so our proportion of box office coming from smaller films is increasing, and we're really delighted that there are more concerts and there are more films, as you will know, from Amazon, etc., being released into cinemas. But at this point in time, there's not enough to offset a big blockbuster like we've outlined in this period.

Ed Woodgate
Research Analyst, Jarden

Okay. Thanks for the questions. Yeah. Appreciate it. Cheers.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nicholas McGarrigle with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Just to follow up on the box office predictions. I mean, in the past, you've avoided making hard and fast predictions on what you think the box office will do. What gives you kind of the confidence or the impetus to do that this half? And just to clarify, are you saying that 30% of opportunity is gone because of the shift, or you expect box office in aggregate for the six months to June to be down 30% on PCP?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Bit of both. No one can give guidance on a film lineup because it's content. We get a great film that we think is going to be phenomenal. It's released in cinemas, and the script's bad. It's all about the appeal. Why we've done it this time is look, we're really aware that the Hollywood strikes would create more uncertainty to a variable business. We're just trying to be a little more helpful to say, "Look, what we see today, it looks a little like this." There are some external reference points that you can have a look. There's a company called Gower Street Analytics, which does a lot of box office prediction as titles come in, etc., and they have a low, mid, and high point. They're often wrong also because the studios are often wrong.

They always intend to make a great film, but sometimes it just doesn't connect with audiences. So Nick, we're not any more confident. We're very realistic about how difficult it is for you and for everyone involved in the cinema industry to truly predict box office. But we just wanted to be a little more helpful because of the strikes.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Yeah. And I mean, you mentioned that predictive service. Have you taken the low, middle, or the high case, do you think, in terms of that 30%?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Well, that changes every day. So we're kind of gone mid to low because we bring in our film programmers, and we talk to studios. We have a little more insight into the numbers than what Gower Analytics does.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. And then do you think—I mean, I saw in the half, obviously, there was maybe some reduction in screens, but your revenue undergrew box office. Generally, do you think that is that potentially some shifting share, or is it something that we're missing in that comparison of your revenue growth in Australia versus the box office?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

No. It'll be worth diving into that when we meet because we haven't had a shift in share, not material shift, kind of. And the fact that we've closed 12 cinemas, I mean, it's not a business where we're chasing share. We're chasing profit. And our fewer-better is about making sure we've got the best locations where we can invest in them well and get great returns from them. But our share hasn't really moved. So maybe we could talk about that more when we meet.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Sure. It might be partly because spend per head didn't grow at the same rate as box office or something like that. And I think in terms of the owned portfolio of hotels, you mentioned that you've included LyLo in the mix and maybe Rydges has brought down the RevPAR. Do you have kind of a sense on what your like-for-like RevPAR experience was in the half year on prior year? Just because obviously, we track the industry data, and typically, you've outperformed the market. But that 1% number doesn't imply that. But potentially, that's because of the different hotels in the mix. I just wanted to get some clarity on that underlying growth in RevPAR.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Underlying growth is around 2%.

Nicholas McGarrigle
Founding Partner, Co-Head of Research, and Co-Head of Emerging Companies Research, Barrenjoey

Right. Okay. All right. Thanks for taking questions.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Adjusted for the ramp-up of Melbourne, by the way. But that just adjusts for LyLo.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone. Your next question comes from John O'Shea with Ord Minnett. Please go ahead.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

Hi. Good morning, team. Can you hear me okay?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Morning, John.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

Yeah. Thanks for taking my questions. Sorry I'm so late in the queue. I accidentally hung up, which won't surprise any of you given my technical capabilities. But thanks very much for taking my questions. Look, my first question is just getting back to basics here around your guidance. Okay. You said second-half down on PCP. So second-half 2023 was AUD 23 million NPAT. So what you're telling me is that you think the second-half 2024 NPAT is going to be lower than that. Can you give us some sense of quantum or any further color on that? I guess that's the first question, I guess, cutting to the chase.

Gregory Dean
Company Secretary and Director of Finance and Accounting, EVT

John, that's Greg. Look, we don't want to give you a number, obviously, but we're guiding the 30% in the box office level. But at the EBITDA level, it's not 30%, but it's below that. So if between 0 and 30% is an easier range for you, that's the range.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

Yep. In terms of how much EBITDA will be down. Yep. That's fine. And all the rest, obviously, is uncontrollables in terms of your P&L anyway. Thank you for that. The second question sort of follows on from some of the good questions that Nick was asking before. Maybe after I ask this question, this will probably lead into it. But just remind me on the 30th of June independent valuations that took place, how much was included there for the potential value of the two George Street developments in that fair value?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

There was no inclusion of the potential future developments in that value.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

No inclusion. Okay. So that sort of plays onto what Nick said. Given all the pressure you've seen, the uncertainty, the fact that the earnings haven't been able to return to pre-COVID, and the fact that share price has, frankly, gone nowhere for quite a long time, the concept around carving out the hotel side and realizing that value sure, maybe not now, but sort of when conditions are more susceptible to that sort of scenario, why wouldn't that be given closer consideration by the Board, or is it being given closer consideration by the Board?

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Yeah. John, it is being considered by the Board. But I think you summarised it just then by going, "Well, you wouldn't look at it now given the conditions that are the external conditions in the other markets.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

Consider it. But by the time you get all the stuff organized and it'll be ready, it'll be ready to go by the time conditions normalize. I guess that's the question.

Gregory Dean
Company Secretary and Director of Finance and Accounting, EVT

Is that a question or a comment, John?

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

It's a question, I suppose.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

I think, John, you would realize that every business is looking three years ahead and thinking, "What are the options?" always considering optionality and preparing for those options.

John O'Shea
Senior Research Analyst of Travel and Tourism, Ord Minnett

Sure. Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Ms. Hastings for closing remarks.

Jane Hastings
CEO and Managing Director, EVT

Thank you all for joining, and I look forward to seeing those of you that have made appointments to come and see us.

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