Before talking through how we have arrived at this decision, I would like to first and foremost recognize our people. From the very beginning, our teams have worked tirelessly with passion, professionalism, and conviction to bring GYG to the Chicago market. Their efforts have delivered genuine progress in brand building, guest experience, and operational standards, and the quality of food and culture they have established is something that I am extremely proud of. We are committed to supporting every team member through this transition with the respect and integrity they deserve. Turning to the decision. It wasn't easy. We have always said that we would remain disciplined in pursuing growth in the U.S. and have been transparent about the thresholds we would be targeting to validate our proof of concept.
Notwithstanding the progress made by the team, the financial performance of the U.S. has simply not been acceptable and is not meeting targeted hurdles. I have always been confident in the differentiation of our food and guest experience. This is not translating to an improvement in sales momentum. Having spent the last three months in the U.S., I realized this was going to take significantly more time and capital than we had expected. In assessing the trajectory of the current network, the board and I have concluded that the business is unlikely to deliver the performance that would justify continued investment of shareholder capital. We have not always got things right, and we've learned a lot. As we reflect on this, there are some things we would do differently. Starting with suburban drive-throughs has made it difficult to build brand in the U.S. Chicago has also been difficult.
What is important is that we make changes when we need to. Continuing to invest in a market where the data does not support the path forward would be inconsistent with the discipline we owe to our shareholders and the rigor that defines the rest of our business. Which brings me to our Australian business. Our core business is very healthy. We continue to deliver strong growth in our existing network, produce world-class unit economics in our restaurants, and have a long runway ahead of us as we progress towards our long-term target of 1,000 restaurants. The quantity and quality of sites in our real estate pipeline continues to grow, and we remain on track to open 32 restaurants this financial year. Today, we are also updating our full year guidance for the Australian segment underlying EBITDA of approximately AUD 85 million, representing 29% growth on the prior year.
We believe directing our capital, focus, and infrastructure behind this opportunity is the most effective way to compound shareholder value over the long term. I want to make it clear that this decision to exit the U.S. is no way altering our conviction in the global appeal of the GYG brand or in the long-term opportunity to expand into new geographies in a disciplined and deliberate manner. The strong performance of GYG's master franchise markets of Singapore and Japan reinforces our confidence. Beyond Singapore and Japan, we continue to believe there will be the right opportunities in the right markets with the right models. When those opportunities arrive, we will be ready. Today's decision is not a statement about GYG's global potential. I will now hand over to Erik to go through the financial impacts of today's announcements.
Thank you, Steven. Good morning, everyone. As a result of today's decision, we expect to recognize a one-off P&L impact of between U.S. $30 and $40 million, to be included in the 2026 full-year results. This range is subject to the audit review process but represents the full exit and closure costs, including our existing lease commitments. The majority of these costs will be non-cash, with the cash component not expected to exceed $15 million. The one-off items I just mentioned are not expected to impact GYG's final dividend for FY 2026. Further detail on the financial impact, accounting treatment, and timing of the exit will be provided in our full-year results materials. I will now hand back to Steven.
We want to thank our shareholders for the trust you placed in us. Decisions like today are never easy, but they are the decisions that build generational companies. Our obsession with food, our commitment to our people, and our focus on reinventing fast food and changing the way the masses eat remains. The Australian business is in a strong position. Our master franchise markets are performing well, and our focus is clear. To our U.S. team, we will support you through this transition with the care, respect, and integrity you deserve. To our guests, franchisees, suppliers, and shareholders, thank you for being on this journey with us. The best of GYG is still ahead. Open for questions, guys.
Thank you. Your first question today comes from Tom Kierath from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys, and congratulations. I know this must have been a really difficult decision for you to make. I suppose my question is just on the cost growth outlook from here. I know that you've built up Hola Central to support a global network and the U.S., is there some opportunities to further streamline the head office costs? As you bring people back from the U.S., how should we think about the broader cost growth in the business going forward, please?
Good morning, Tom. Hilton here. I'll take that question. Thank you. Firstly, from a U.S. perspective, all G&A relating to the U.S. business has always been allocated to the U.S. business. From a cost out perspective, what you'll see is the cost relating to the U.S. business will come out. From an Australian perspective, we've obviously built out a leadership team that will support our strategy and our growth to 1,000 restaurants, and that remains intact. It will support naturally our Australian business as well as our international partners. The way we think about it is that effectively the cost out you'll see is coming out of the U.S. As far as the Australian team's concerned that are based in the U.S. that were in the G&A, those are predominantly operational team members and opportunities for them will be in Australia.
As you know, we're opening up to growing to 40 restaurants per annum, and as we open new restaurants, there'll be those roles for them when they return.
Yep. Wonderful. Thanks, Hilton. Second, just I'd be interested in your comments on what you're seeing in Australia at the moment. You've given some earnings guidance for this year. Can you maybe just provide some comments on what you're seeing maybe in the last couple of months? Obviously, the world's kind of changed a bit with what's going on in the Middle East, but just some comments there around trading and input costs would be helpful. Thanks.
Hi, Tom. It's Erik here. I guess the first thing is, too, is we've obviously confirmed our guidance for the year, which demonstrates our confidence in where we're going to land the year. There's obviously a lot happening in markets, but it's all taken into account in that forecast. We're not going to be providing additional commentary and cost guidance on this quarter's trading, and we look forward to sharing that and our results in August.
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Thanks, Tom.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Caleb Wheatley from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Morning, Steve and Hilton and team. Just one question from me. Just keen to explore how you're thinking about the balance sheet settings in a similar vein to Tom's question that arguably you now have a bit more sort of reinvestment capability. Yeah, how are you thinking about leverage and the balance sheet? How does the buyback play into this? Yeah, how you are thinking about maybe some of the incremental capital that you now have off the back of the losses in the U.S. on the P&L, please.
Thank you, Caleb. Look, I think as you know, we're already in a position where we have surplus capital in excess of what we need to continue to invest in our restaurants in Australia. As you know, we're generating an extremely attractive return on that investment. Our priority will always be investing in our restaurants first and foremost. What has changed as a result of our decision today is that we will have, going forward, significantly less operating losses in the U.S. Obviously, those will fall away. The group's earnings profile will improve materially as a result of that decision. That will allow us, first and foremost, that will flow through in the form of higher dividends through the payout ratio that we have set as a board. The board's decision's always been to distribute the majority of franking credits to shareholders.
The first and foremost is expect the dividend to increase as a result, reflecting the higher earnings. From a cash perspective, we obviously have a small cash outflow as a result of this decision. That's against a background of a very strong balance sheet. We're in a position where we will be able to continue the buyback program that the board has approved. We have been delighted at our ability to buy shares at the prices that we have because we believe we are able to buy those shares at prices where we're trading materially below our zero growth peers. We believe that in time that will be an extremely attractive investment on behalf of our shareholders. That will be something that will continue in the weeks ahead.
Great. Thank you. I guess as a bit of a follow-up, the $30-$40 in terms of the P&L impact versus the $15 in cash, how do we think about the stack and reconciling those numbers?
The $30 million-$40 million U.S. will be included in this year's earnings numbers in 2026. It is likely that that will be captured obviously we would need to work through with our auditors, it is likely that that will be included in discontinued operations. You'll have that detail in the accounts come the year-end. In terms of the cash, some of the cash will flow this year, the majority we expect to flow next year as we work through our wind down of the U.S. operations. You'll see the P&L impact in F26, you see the majority of the cash impact happening in F27 and beyond.
Okay. What does the non-cash component relate to?
It's primarily the impairment of our property, plant and equipment that we've got over in the U.S., as well as the impairment of our lease assets that we have recognized in the U.S. as well.
Great. That's clear. Thank you. Appreciate the time.
Thank you, Caleb.
Your next question comes from Craig Woolford from MST Financial. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Steven, Erik. I just want to ask a question on how you think about offshore operations going forward. Your Singapore and Japan are franchising operations. The U.S. was largely corporate-owned. If you think about future opportunities, would you be considering franchising or corporate-owned opportunities?
Good morning, Craig.
Thank you.
The decision to exit the U.S. in no way alters our conviction in the global appeal of our brand or in the long-term opportunity expanding to new markets in a disciplined and deliberate manner. The performance of our master franchise markets of Singapore and Japan reinforces our confidence. Both markets continue to deliver strong sales growth and healthy unit economics, and we continue to open new restaurants. We're proud of both those partners and see lots of runway ahead in each market. Beyond Singapore and Japan, we continue to believe there'll be the right opportunities in the right markets with the right models. When those opportunities arrive, we'll be ready. We haven't made any decisions at this point as to any next markets beyond Singapore and Japan.
Okay. you're not suggesting that the operating model of the U.S. was part of the issue?
Craig, there's been a lot of learnings in relation to the operating model in the U.S. We've had a lot of success having master franchise markets both in Singapore and Japan, and that is naturally something we'll take. Look, we'll consider all the learnings we've had from the U.S. as we go into new markets, given the strength of our success with our master franchisees in those markets.
Thanks, Hilton.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Gilbert from Jarden.
Good morning to you. Just first one from me, did you consider trying to sell the franchise offer in the U.S., or there just weren't necessarily buyers for it there?
Hey, Ben. No, we didn't consider selling the restaurants to franchisees just because the economics obviously weren't strong enough, and obviously that's part of the reason why we've exited the U.S.
Thanks. Just second one for you. I appreciate your comments, Erik, around not flying us with the details around cost. Could you just remind me how you think about pricing and cost parts of the business? It surprised me. Obviously, you're still leaning in on value and it's working well given the result, but just how you think about pricing and managing COGS, because obviously there's some pretty material COGS inflation out there, but it doesn't really look like you guys have taken price.
Sure, Ben. I'll take that one. I think the first thing I'll say is our pricing philosophy has been very consistent for a long time now and has been delivering very strong results in our business. The way that we think about price, and I've always thought about price, is that we need to do everything in our power to keep menu prices as low as possible for our guests. When we do that, we get rewarded with significant transaction growth, and you saw that in the third quarter, and you've seen that coming through at the beginning of this financial year. We are entering into a higher inflationary environment. We have continued to apply that framework, and we will do everything we can, working with our suppliers, without compromising on quality, to mitigate those cost increases.
If that is not possible, the last lever we will pull is menu price increases. As you know, what we try and work towards on behalf of our franchisees and the health bar network is a COGS outcome of about 30%. What you should expect in a higher inflationary environment, the reality is that menu price growth will be higher than it otherwise would have been. Due to the benefits of operating leverage in our business and the significant scale that we're starting to build as a business, we believe we can keep those menu prices inflation well below inflation and below the rest of the market, and that's our objective.
That's really helpful. Just one follow-up. Do you think your relative pricing has improved? It feels like your relative pricing.
Absolutely
has progressively improved through this fiscal year.
Absolutely. The industry inflation has been well ahead of ours, and we are not only keeping inflation below industry, but actually below general CPI. We're getting rewarded with that through transaction growth and a growth in frequency.
That's great. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Bryan Raymond from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good question. Just to clarify on the Australian corporate cost line, G&A cost, is there any costs in there at all that are related to the U.S. or could be rationalized at all? There is quite a big cost base sitting there. I think Tom might have mentioned this earlier, but just making sure there's any implication at all for the LDU that are out of this closure.
Bryan, no, it is not. All costs relating to the U.S. have been allocated to the U.S. G&A line that is included in the U.S. EBITDA line that we've been reporting.
Okay, great. Thank you. Is your AUD 85 million of EBITDA guidance, is that consistent with the 66.2% range you gave previously in terms of margins?
It is. It's probably at the upper end of that range.
Okay. All right. Thank you. Just does the lack of, let's call it, cash flow drain in the U.S., change your pace up to 40 stores per annum from 32 currently? Was that not the issue previously in sort of growth opportunities there?
Bryan, no. As far as the Australian business is concerned, our strategy remains the same. We will open 32 restaurants here, in Australia this year. We're building our pipeline as we grow towards 40 restaurants over the medium term. Nothing changes from a strategic perspective as far as the Australian business is concerned. It's important that we don't compromise on the quality of our real estate sites.
Yeah. Just to build on that, Bryan, it's another way of saying that is cash has never been the constraint to that pipeline. It's the quality of the sites that we continue to insist upon.
Right. We should expect the buyback to resume now.
Yes, you should.
Okay, great. That's all from me. Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Sam Teeger from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just wondering, given consumer sentiment in Australia has been a bit weaker, have you seen any slowdown in delivery sales given it's cheaper for consumers to choose carryout?
Yeah, Sam, I'm gonna deliberately confine my comments to the third quarter results, and we'll be able to share our Q4 results in August, and talk more about it. We're very pleased with actually all channels of growth in the business. Delivery has played a big part in the momentum that we saw in Q3. Importantly, it was not the only area of momentum. As I said, we saw momentum across all channels. We're happy with the way that delivery is going at the moment.
All right. Thanks. Just hypothetically going forward, if delivery sales do slow due to weakening consumer sentiment, can you just talk us through the impact on the P&L?
Yes. Sam, one of the great things about business is that we have many different channels and we're there for the customer in whatever channel they need, whether it's the app, whether it's drive-through, whether it's in our restaurants. We provide a great convenience and cost for all our guests when they come in. If delivery is softer in the future, then we have so many other channels to serve our guests with then. All else being equal, the non-delivery channels are more profitable than our delivery channel. That would be a benefit in hypothetical terms.
All right. Thanks. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Michael Toner from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thanks for taking my question. Well done on making a obviously a very tough but commercially logical decision. Just back to the Australian pipeline. I think in February you reported 108 stores. I'm sort of curious what that number is today. When you say commercial terms are agreed, does that mean you've identified the site terms and it's board approved and you've agreed terms with the lessor? Can you remind me, kind of what the rule of thumb is for the lead time from something kind of entering that pipeline to then being built and opened? Thank you.
From an Australian pipeline perspective, you're correct, we did confirm 108 stores at restaurants at the half year. We continue to build that pipeline, as we said we do at approximately four to five sites per month. We're confident in continuing to do that. From a timeline perspective, it takes between 18 months and two years on average from when we agree commercial terms with the landlords to when we open the restaurants. We have a very strong, healthy pipeline. As we've confirmed, we will open 32 restaurants this financial year and then grow into 40 restaurants over the medium term.
Michael, just to confirm, as you said, when a restaurant is in the pipeline, that means we have agreed commercial terms with the landlord and our board has approved those sites.
Okay, thank you. Just on Uber Eats as well. Anecdotally, there's been quite significant promo activity on Uber Eats currently for GYG. Is that sort of mainly or entirely funded by Uber? How powerful do you think that's been for your sales and earnings growth since you've signed that agreement?
Yeah. Promotional activity in the delivery channel is highly effective, and it's all funded by Uber under the arrangement that we have with them.
Thank you.
It's a key part of the exclusivity agreement that we signed.
Thank you. Much appreciated.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Shaun Cousins from UBS. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. Good morning. A question regarding underlying losses in the U.S. in the second half. I think in February you guided that losses would be lower in the second half versus the first half. Conscious you're closing stores today. Curious if that still holds or if you could provide some sort of underlying loss guidance for the second half so that we can be accurate, given I assume you've got that information somewhat close to hand.
Thank you, Shaun. I think it's fair to say that the U.S. business has been underperforming our expectations, that is a key part, as we discussed today, of the decisions that we've made. It's not just because of the performance this quarter. It's more about the projections and the capital that we would need to invest. It has been underperforming our expectations. We would be expecting those losses to be slightly higher than we had expected them at the time of the half-year results.
That'll be even though you're not trading for June and the remainder of May?
We're going to have to work that out. It's all going to come out in the wash of all the accounting, and we'll be able to share that.
Yep
August. Yeah.
Great. Maybe, Chipotle is a competitor that I think is soon to be opening in Singapore or has spoken a bit about that. You've had some experience now competing with them. Chipotle could be more adventurous in markets they look to go to. How do you think your business lines up against them, I guess, from a food customer experience perspective, just given the pending, the great competition that may exist?
Yeah, well, maybe I'll answer that. Having spent, obviously, the last three months in Chicago with Chipotle locations near GYG, and if we can go into all the lessons learned, Shaun, from the U.S. and the mistakes that we've made. In seeing where the GYG locations were and the Chipotle locations were, I mean, GYG was outperforming. I think on a food experience, I think GYG has it beat. As I said earlier, I think our food and our guest experience is second to none. I can tell you all the lessons learned on real estate. Did we pick the right city? Did we start with the right real estate strategy? I'm very confident for Chipotle to come into other markets where GYG is and for us to outperform it.
Great. Maybe just to clarify, just the buyback. Your first quarter sales announcement indicated the buyback would run to the 31st of May. Conscious now you said your blackout extends to the end of June. Does that mean your buyback could continue into June, and so it would follow your blackout period? Could you just sort of?
Yes, of course.
Be quite crisp in that, just clarify that, please.
Yeah, exactly, Shaun. Ordinarily, we would obviously stop our buyback program at the time that the blackout comes into effect. Given that we've shared today the additional guidance for the Australian business, we feel comfortable that the market would be trading on an informed basis, and so we've been able to push the blackout back to the 30th of June, which would allow the buyback to continue until that date.
Fantastic. Great. Thank you, Erik. Thank you, Steven.
Thanks, Shaun.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Peter Meichelboeck from Select Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Sort of maybe just a bit of a moot point, but just wanted to check, I think you had eight sites in the U.S. Were there any other sites that you had committed to that obviously won't go ahead now? I think there was maybe a couple were mentioned. I think Lincoln Square and Lakeview, I think, from memory.
Yes, that's correct. There's two additional sites. There's South Naperville and Lakeview. Both those sites will obviously not open. We're working like we are with all our suppliers and landlords. We're working with the parties involved in those sites to wrap up amicably.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Marks for closing remarks.
I just wanted to thank everybody for taking the time to join us on obviously the decision we made for the U.S. and look forward to speaking to you all soon. Have a great day.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.