IDP Education Limited (ASX:IEL)
Australia flag Australia · Delayed Price · Currency is AUD
3.290
+0.110 (3.46%)
Apr 30, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H1 2022

Feb 9, 2022

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Right. Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. This morning I'm joined by Murray Walton, our Chief Financial Officer, and Craig Mackey, our Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. I'm pleased to report that IDP's strength of business model, impactful innovation, our highly capable team, and determined customers have delivered a strong rebound of results in the H1 of FY 2022. When we look at page 4, which summarizes our H2 performance, you can see we've delivered a record revenue of AUD 397 million, up 47%.

EBIT at AUD 80.7 million is up 64%. NPAT at AUD 52.9 million is up 70%. Our cash balance at AUD 205 million is down a little from where we were at June 30, 2021.

Of course, that's primarily related to the acquisition of the BC IELTS business in India, where we used AUD 159 million of cash. When we look across the key service lines, student placement is up to 28,200 APFs. That's up 33%. Primarily driven by the demand and the opportunity, of course, to travel into the Northern Hemisphere. Canada APFs were up 71%, U.K. up 37%, and the USA up a remarkable 641%. Australia was down 17%.

Again, that really reflects the timing and the fact that, you know, borders and messaging around international students' access to the market through the H1 was fundamentally shut off. In terms of English language testing, we delivered 966,000 tests.

That's up 79% over the previous comparable period. IDP in India, when we look at our performance there, volumes were up 200%. Of course, that reflects the addition of volume now coming into the business through the acquisition of what was the BC IELTS distribution network in that market for now IDP. English language teaching at 31,900 courses was down 15%, and that reflects primarily the lockdowns and the disruptions in the markets of Cambodia and Vietnam.

Albeit, Cambodia was up 7% as they pivoted to a successful online learning program targeting lower cost courses in that market. In terms of digital marketing, it was up to AUD 20 million revenue up 13%.

In fact, within that number, we've seen a great uptick of in orders around our new AI digital data insight services with that service line up 109%, reflecting the importance of the data set that IDP has to our clients. Now moving to page 5, just kind of in summary in some of the, you know, the key buckets where we're seeing some significant change in driving opportunity. Clearly, we've seen a great rebound, in particular in IELTS and the Northern Hemisphere study destinations. I think that really reflects, again, you know, the long-term through the cycle, resilient nature of the structural demand of our customers in the markets that we operate in. I mean, overall, a 73% increase in multi-destination student placement, and of course, those IELTS growth numbers I mentioned.

It seems at this juncture, as we have a world recovering from a pandemic, the governments have their settings in a very positive light for both students and migrants as they seek to rebuild from a COVID disrupted period. In all of our key markets, we're seeing settings put in place by the government around work visas and post-study work rights that are truly attracting that international student cohort. It's probably the 1st time in my time, certainly within IDP, where I've seen those settings set positively across all key markets. We've continued to deliver on our innovation and technology-enabled solutions, and that's enabled us again to maintain our industry-leading brand and continue to transform the services and ensure they're relevant for our customers and clients.

Here I've just pointed out we have 500,000 downloads of our new IDP Live app, which I'll touch on a little bit further in the presentation. Let's move into IELTS for a moment. Our strategy there continues to drive strong growth, of course, supported by significant product innovation. In terms of computer-delivered growth, we've added another 54 computer-delivered test centers, and 14 of those came to us through the acquisition of BC IELTS in India. We remain committed to improving the customer service as a competitive advantage for IDP in that high-stakes testing marketplace.

We've refreshed 54 websites around the world, and we're in the process at the moment of working on developing and releasing what we think will be a game-changing app for those high-stakes English language test takers. Of course, the IDP India acquisition, I'll talk a little bit more about that shortly, but it's given us, you know, complete access and control of distribution in the largest and the fastest-growing IELTS market in the world. Our platform modernization program work continues at pace. In fact, this half we are rolling out IELTS Online really aggressively as we go into the next financial year as a new way for test takers to take their academic test in FY 2022. Moving on to page 7.

We've touched on this before, but of course, we're much further down the track. The integration of BC's IELTS operations in India is proceeding very well. We now have a unified operating model and a unified customer experience across that very large IELTS marketplace. We're now operating in 37 computer-delivered centers in 21 cities and 74 paper-based test locations. We simplified the operations and the arrangements around supporting the delivery of tests in India, and the financial synergies are running ahead of the plan that we presented to the market. When we look at IELTS volumes in India in totality, the chart on the right reflects total IELTS tests in India, and historically that's a combination of BC tests and IDP tests.

I mean, of course, now going forward in that H1 , it's primarily exclusively IDP. You can see there, extremely strong again through the cycle growth. In fact, on the previous comparable period, our total IELTS volumes in India were up 97%. They're really continuing a strong growth trajectory and connecting to that strong trajectory that we had in place pre the pandemic. Of course, in India, we have a very significant student placement opportunity and business, and we've taken the opportunity through the past half to accelerate our student placement office network with 27 new Indian offices launched so far in FY 2022. Taking us to 67 student placement offices now in 60 cities across India.

Moving on to page 8 and just giving people a little bit more insight into IELTS Online, which launches early in 2022. This is a test that again provides our test takers with another option. Now they have either the option to do their test on paper, do it in one of our computer delivered centers, and ultimately now with IELTS Online, the opportunity to do that test at home. It's focused on IELTS Academic and therefore supporting the colleges and universities who will accept this test. We think it's an important way to expand the customer choice and the customer experience. It will bring all the benefits of the IELTS test reputationally and in terms of connecting the test taker to the objectives and the study and migration dreams they have.

Equally, and I think most importantly, it's a test of high integrity and high security, and we're using quite a few sophisticated methods there to ensure that we can deliver confidence to our accepting organizations that again, this is a test that meets the high security integrity standards that that IELTS meets. Again, very exciting to have that rolling out in the H2 and really going into scale in the H1 of FY 2023. I'm going to move across now to student placement and on page 9 of the pack. Here I provided a representation of our current pipeline view. Well, current as to the end of the H1 . You can see there clearly the very strong growth in the Northern Hemisphere of both leads and applications.

For those of you who've been with us since pre-pandemic levels, you can recognize there that we really have reconnected with the growth trajectory in that very important market of Canada, the U.K., and the U.S., with significant growth now in qualified leads, up 60%, and applications into the Northern Hemisphere, up 50%. As we look to Australia, clearly with the challenges and the restrictions in international students getting into this market, it had remained impacted through the H1 . We are seeing some green shoots. In fact, looking at January, which is just completed, we can see for the 1st time that qualified leads are now back in the positive territory and applications are no longer declining.

Now, you know, one month isn't an absolutely core data point, but it does reflect now with international borders open not just to international students, but about to be for tourists who are often the parents of those international students assisting them to settle in. We would expect as we move into semester two to see a very strong opportunity for the return of international students into Australia. On page 10, again, we've given you some insights before into really preferences for study choice based on course search preferences across our IDP Connect websites around the world. Here you can see through beginning October into December as news became more positive searches for Australian courses and Australian universities and colleges is on the uptick.

Clearly Canada in this chart still remains a very positive destination location. Pleasingly Australia is now beginning to tick up again. Now moving on to slide eleven. We have taken the opportunity through the pandemic to continue to leverage off the investment that we made in both technology capability and technology systems around our platform to drive much more rapid innovation for our customer and for our clients. We delivered our IDP Live app, which allows a sophisticated matching through a deep data capable recommendation engine. It supports and helps counselors in terms of tracking a student's interactions with IDP and their progress with applications that we're putting into the universities and colleges.

I think most importantly, it now enables them to connect to a FastLane feature. We're working with clients. We've loaded up an inventory of their courses and the qualifications and admission criteria for those courses. We now have 27 universities onboarded, and we'd expect to be at around 60 by the end of this year. This enables those institutions to drive recruitment, volume, diversity, and reduce the cost of their admissions overheads, while for a student, it enables them to connect to the right course and receive an offer in principle in almost real-time, removing the anxiety and ultimately the wait times for confidence that they can get into the course that they're seeking. We really believe this will be a game changer in the years ahead.

Now moving to slide 12, and probably more of a summary of just our positioning relative to others in the marketplace. I mean, IDP continues to be a very unique proposition for our clients and for our customers with our global footprint, which we do continue to expand, and we're just in the process of appointing our country manager into Nigeria. We're beginning to get our counselors in place there. We are continuing to expand that network. As I mentioned, in markets where we see opportunity like India, we continue to get deeper in those markets. We're combining that with a deep investment into continued innovation, customer-led and customer relevant. From a counselor perspective and from a student placement point of view, we give students a choice with our omni-channel counseling network.

We have almost 1,500 counselors worldwide now in 153 offices in over 30 countries, allowing students to choose the, you know, the way they're supported, when they want to be supported by trusted advisors. We really have cemented our position as a strategic partner for institutions in helping them set their international student recruitment strategies using our data and our insights and our qualitative knowledge and experts in the field. We continue to build our digital capabilities. Our campus now in Chennai numbers some 530 people. We've brought in a very strong new leader recently to lead that and ensure that we're, you know, operating that from a level of best practice, delivering on high-quality delivery and code deliveries on an ongoing basis.

I mentioned our English language testing innovation with IELTS Online coming in H2 FY 2022. Our strategic expansion in India. We now have over 300 CEED centers around the world. Creating a very flexible operating environment that enables us to, you know, really manage some of the challenges we've had to manage through COVID and continue to operate with maximum capacity. The data science team and our AI teams are really now embedding new capabilities and technologies within our applications to improve personalization for our customers through things like matching and course recommendations, really data-driven services to again differentiate IDP. With that as an overview, I'd now like to pass to Murray to just take us through the detailed financial results. Thanks, Murray.

Murray Walton
CFO, IDP Education

Thanks, Andrew. I'm on page 14, the H1 overview. The revenue was AUD 397 million, up 49% versus the PCP on a constant currency basis, with a strong rebound in IELTS revenue from IDP test centers and the addition of the Indian volumes from the completion of the British Council India acquisition. IELTS revenue was up 66% versus PCP on a constant currency basis. Student placement revenue was up 33%, but it was driven by the strong multi-destination rebound and acceleration, with multi-destination revenue up 68% versus PCP on a constant currency basis.

Strong volume growth came from the U.K. and Canada, while the U.S. volume growth of 641% was primarily Indian postgraduate students, many of whom who had delayed their international education journey. Australian student placement revenue declines 18% versus PCP as the border closure until mid-December, international students delay their decisions on coming to Australia. Digital marketing revenue continued to grow as it had right through the pandemic, with 11% growth versus PCP on a constant currency basis. English language teaching revenue declined 7% versus the PCP, with Cambodia revenue down, growing despite a small decline in volumes. Vietnam schools were not as successful getting students to learn online, with revenue declining over 50% versus PCP.

Gross profit was AUD 219 million, with growth of 41% versus PCP and a lower GP margin of 55.2% due to a higher proportion of IELTS revenue at a lower margin and a lower IELTS margin as we combine the India British Council IELTS business that was operating at a much lower margin than our IDP business. Overhead costs increased 38% versus the PCP on a constant currency basis to AUD 122 million as we commence broad-based hiring again and expenses return to normal run rates. EBIT is AUD 78 million, 63% higher versus the PCP on a constant currency basis, while adjusted EBIT is at AUD 81 million, excluding one-off costs and amortization of acquired intangibles. Net profit after tax is AUD 51 million and 70% higher versus the PCP on a constant currency basis.

I'm going to move now to page 15, the key operating metrics. The key operating metrics highlight the rebound we've seen in IELTS and in multi-destination student placement volumes. IELTS volumes were 966,000, with growth of 79% versus PCP, with IDP volumes returning to full capacity in most markets, and the Indian acquisition providing an acceleration in growth. Student placement volumes were 28,200, 33% above the PCP, with multi-destination growing robustly at 63% versus the PCP. Australia volume was 6,700 as the border closure delayed students' decisions to apply, while multi-destination volume was 21,500, with the U.K., Canada and U.S. each making a significant contribution to the growth. I'll move on to average fee performance.

The average test fee for IELTS was AUD 266, a 7% decrease on a constant currency basis, with the growth in India volumes at a lower price leading to a decline of 7.6% in average price. IELTS price increases across our network did add 2.3% to average price, but the China market for the British Council was markedly lower, leading to a lower royalty and a 1.7% decline in average price. The average student placement application processing fee has increased to AUD 3,770, a 2% increase versus the PCP. When we use a constant currency, the price was flat. The Australian average fee declined by 1%, with higher commission rates increasing the average price.

That was more than offset by an unfavorable study sector mix and lower student charging, as online students didn't need to buy products such as health insurance, and that reduced the average price. The multi-destination average fee increased 3% on a constant currency basis, with commission rate increases and a favorable study sector mix, partially offset by an unfavorable destination mix due to higher Canadian volumes at a lower average price and lower student charging. We'll move on to slide 16, the overheads. Overheads on this slide are presented on a pre-AASB 16 basis, so that occupancy costs include the cost of leases so that we can compare our overheads over time.

Total overheads on this basis are AUD 133 million for the half and are comparable with the AUD 125 million in the h1 of the FY 2020, with a monthly run rate of AUD 22.2 million in FY 2022 versus the FY 2021 H1 run rate of AUD 20.8 million. If we exclude the one-off payments in FY 2022, the fH1 monthly run rate is AUD 21.1 million. Our overheads are now back to normal level after 18 months of cost-reduction initiatives. We started spending more in marketing, which was up 73% versus the PCP, investing in building our pipeline for the H2 and for financial year 2023. We resumed hiring by filling vacancies and expanding our digital and customer-facing roles that drive our future revenue growth.

As you will remember, we kept our team together during the pandemic. Employee costs at AUD 89 million were up 39% versus the PCP, and included make good payments to staff who took voluntary wage reductions. Occupancy costs at AUD 15 million increased by 18% as rent subsidies ended, and we included the acquired British Council offices from August 2021. We'll move on to slide 17, the balance sheet. The balance sheet remains strong with AUD 205 million of cash and with undrawn credit lines of AUD 128 million. A lower cash balance since the previous June year-end as a result of the cash utilized for the Indian acquisition. Contract assets increased to AUD 72 million as students commencing courses in our Q3 are not invoiced to clients until after census date for their courses.

The increase in intangible assets of AUD 304 million primarily relates to the acquisition of the British Council India business. Our borrowings are drawn of AUD 156 million as at 31 December, including AUD 100 million for the acquisition of the British Council India business. It is a three-year facility that was put in place in June 2021. Now, our current net cash position is AUD 48 million. Back to you, Andrew.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah. Thanks, Murray. Let me move on to now summarize on slide 19. Now, clearly, from this result, you can see that our growth is accelerating. I think, primarily that's reflective of the determination and resilience of our customers, whether they be seeking a migration or a study outcome. Again, I think that just reinforces the strong underlying structural demand we will see in global education, not just now, but for years to come. There's early signs, certainly that a rebound of interest in Australia will lead again to a strong return of international students to Australia with quality education and a perception and belief that Australia has, in aggregate, handled its situation well from a health perspective.

Our data suggests that as we move into semester two, we will get a strong intake. I think uniquely, as I mentioned globally, we really do have a positive global landscape as it aligns to governments who are seeking to recover and rebound. We're all aware of things like skills and worker shortages. We see it here in Australia, but it's no different than the other major markets, Canada, the U.K., the U.S., and as I said here. Post-study work rights settings, and the ability for students to connect to part-time work, is as strong as we've ever seen it from a regulatory environment perspective.

I think as I've mentioned before, from an industry perspective, IDP remains really uniquely positioned with our network, the diversification that provides our clients and us as a business, and the brand that we've established with our clients and IELTS accepting organizations is 2nd to none. The investment we've made in technology and enabling alongside our physical networks, the ability to deliver up new products and services in a hybrid fashion, again, puts us in a unique leadership position. We continue to invest in key strategic markets. I touched on Nigeria. There's an organization we've prioritized, clearly India, Pakistan, and indeed, looking at organizationally, how we get ourselves prepared for stronger growth in markets like North America in the near future.

With that summary, what I'd now like to do is move from the formal part of the presentation, and let's move into Q&A if we can, operator. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on speakerphone, please pick up your handset to ask your question. Your 1st question comes from Michael Peet from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Michael Peet
Head of Emerging Companies Equities Research, Goldman Sachs

Morning, Andrew and Murray. Thanks for taking my questions. 1st one, just on acquisitions looking forward, I mean, it seems like India, we see India's gone very well. I'm just trying to think about other IELTS related or other ed tech sort of areas you might be looking at. What's your appetite for acquisitions and is there much in the pipeline at the moment?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Michael. I mean, clearly again, you know, the foundation that we've built and that kind of through the cycle, strong structural demand means we're positioned to do, you know, to do well with the network and the technology investments that we've made to capture opportunity. As I said before, I think, you know, ultimately the simplification of distribution of IELTS is a priority for us, and that will, you know, remain the case if, again, opportunities present themselves there. Then, I mean, we've just actually got back from reviewing strategy as a team in Dubai. From a student placement perspective, we would primarily be looking at adding to or enabling further technology and customer experience innovation.

Looking clearly at some of the emerging ed tech companies that would slot in and accelerate some of the vision that we have around student placement. I think equally, that enables us to get access maybe to skills that are difficult to hire in the market. There is a you know a focus on how we continue to build that capability. I mean, nothing specific to call out in the pipeline right now, but clearly we are looking. The balance sheet, as you would see, is well-positioned for us to leverage some of that into some strategic acquisitions.

Michael Peet
Head of Emerging Companies Equities Research, Goldman Sachs

Just a question on IELTS.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yes, Michael.

Michael Peet
Head of Emerging Companies Equities Research, Goldman Sachs

Canada. Canada, you mentioned, IELTS was a bit weaker. Just wondering what's happening there. Was it something in the PCP, or could you just give us a sense of anything structural going on there with the testing market?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah, I think it was Canada. You know, Canada will be and is a very strong market for us and for IELTS. Very strong support from Immigration Canada. As people would know, it's one of two tests accepted for migration and with their streamlined student visa program. It is the only test that they accept in that regard. Canada was down in this H1 period about 10% after a very significant growth in the prior half. Now, that reflected really a policy that was put in place by the Canadian government to rapidly give non-residents in Canada the opportunity to move to permanent residency and led to a huge bring forward of tests in Canada into the H2 of last year.

I think as we go into the H2 of this year, it'll begin to normalize, and our expectation again is Canada will show strong growth. We really saw fundamentally a shift based on a policy setting where Canada opened up the door for 90,000 people to move through to permanent residency, and that caused a significant spike. I mean, in fact, for a couple of weeks there, we couldn't even fulfill the demand. We've seen kind of a shift in testing, which you wouldn't normally see. That's kind of a one-off. We'd expect it to go back to the good growth again as we move forward from here.

Michael Peet
Head of Emerging Companies Equities Research, Goldman Sachs

Final one from me. Just on the U.S., you mentioned that 600% growth. It seems like that was a timing issue as post-grads, as you called out. Could you just give us a bit of insight into student placement into the U.S. longer term? Where do you see that? Is that going to be a much more meaningful business? Where, how is that going to work, given universities don't traditionally pay for placements?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah. No, absolutely. I think I've said before, from a strategic settings or priority perspective, we've got a huge opportunity in front of us in the markets, given the source countries that we have, the key markets being Canada, the U.K., and Australia. The U.S., we primarily have capability based in India to support U.S. students, again, primarily post-grad students. Clearly, as you know, things have opened up. Post-grad students are again really willing to travel and go to the U.S. Some of the U.S. settings around connections to work, in particular for STEM postgraduates, have improved. I mean, our view is IDP Live, our investment in data matching, the ability for colleges and universities to really work with IDP as a technology offering, presents huge opportunity in the midterm.

Strategically, it still sits in our roadmap. But investments, you know, that we're making today in things like IDP Live, we believe will start to give us traction in the U.S. probably within the next, you know, two years is the view. We've actually just reorganized our North American organization. We did have a separate organization in Canada and in the U.S. focused on client acquisition and client sales of both student placement contracts and digital marketing contracts. We've just in the last 6 months now pulled those teams together, and we're investing in new marketing and customer team capabilities to begin this, you know, journey for the U.S.

I think, you know, as we roll out IDP Live and things like FastLane, our solutions become much more relevant to those colleges and universities who've maybe been reluctant to use an agent in the past.

Michael Peet
Head of Emerging Companies Equities Research, Goldman Sachs

Right. Thanks very much, Andrew.

Operator

Thank you.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Plumbe from UBS. Please go ahead.

Tim Plumbe
Analyst, UBS

Hi, guys. Just two questions from me, if possible. The 1st one just around IDP Live. Andrew, I think you mentioned targeting 50 universities on the platform by the end of the year. Can you give us a sense in terms of what scale you need to get to in order to hit that kind of 80/20 rule, for size or for number of universities on board?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Well, I guess it's going to differ a little bit by market just in terms of adoption. We're planning for and working towards having 60 clients signed up with the platform adopted by the end of this calendar year. The Australian clients and the U.K. clients are our predominant 1st targets. We've actually just got 4 of the Russell Group out of the U.K. signed up. We are reaching a tipping point. In Australia, my expectation is we will have all clients on IDP Live. For the U.K., once we get to the end of this year, I believe we will have hit the tipping point. We'll get to that kind of 80/20 principle there, you know. Canada, you know, we're just beginning to look at.

To be quite frank, Tim, one of the challenges we've got is just the resources to stand up adoption. We're putting more into that so we can adopt more clients more quickly. There's a big demand from clients to get their inventory on. It's not an easy exercise for them because they, for maybe the 1st time, have to be very clear from a data perspective as how they define their admission rules. Often the universities have done not a lot of formal work on that. We're helping them complete the formalization of their admissions criteria. That then gets loaded into the system, in some respects, loading their inventory onto our platform.

Yeah, my expectation is we'll get to 100% of Australian clients probably within the next 8 months or so. Yes, I think by the end of this year, we'll be at that tipping point for the U.K. And probably just cleaning up the last set of clients for the U.K. that we want on the platform.

Tim Plumbe
Analyst, UBS

Great. Thanks. Just the 2nd question around IELTS Online. Can you maybe give us a sense how we should think about the pricing difference relative to the existing computer-based testing? Maybe also how do we think about the cost to serve relative to computer-based testing? I mean, is this something that you'll make less absolute gross profit dollars out of, but it increases the potential to get new business? Or is it a substitute which just provides another option?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

No. Thanks, Tim. I think the thinking that we have at the moment. We haven't completely finalized the pricing strategy. I would say that generally the pricing across paper, CD, or IELTS Online will be basically the same. You know, we're not looking to differentiate them on price to customer. It's more about what's most convenient for the customer and what choice do they want to make. Giving them more choice in that regard. Again, I think it's worth noting this is for IELTS Academic. At this stage, we believe it's very unlikely that the governments who accept IELTS will accept an online test. I think that may come in some years in the future.

It's primarily for those students who are simply looking to gain access from an academic perspective. Yeah, pricing we expect will be the same. In terms of margins, yes, ultimately there is margin, again, margin improvement. I mean, we've seen some of that come in CD. And again, there'll be more margin improvement coming with IELTS Online. Our expectation in 2023 is really probably a very small percentage of volumes. We've done, you know, some customer preference surveying and researching, and I think you'll still see paper and CD being the predominant testing platform certainly through the next 12 to 18 months.

Tim Plumbe
Analyst, UBS

Understood. Thanks, guys. I'll jump back into the queue.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Thanks, Tim.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from James Bales from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oh, hi, guys. I just wanted to ask about your expectations in terms of SP seasonality in what's a pretty strange year, for both multi-destination and for, Australia and New Zealand?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah. Well, I guess seasonality clearly for Australia and New Zealand we've, you know, had obstacles that, you know, completely disrupt a view of seasonality. I mean, now, you know, for Australia and New Zealand, our view with, you know, with the teams and with the network is we should expect to see a strong semester two. I think, you know, again, listen, it's a little bit hard to completely predict, but the data suggests semester two will be good. I think we get back to more of an even keel from a seasonality perspective, probably in the H2 of FY 2023 would be my expectations. Now for multi-destination. Of course, multi-destination, we've had the benefits of markets primarily being open, Canada having disruption around visas.

Again, that's led to probably some issues with having a real clear view on seasonality. I think this year for the Northern Hemisphere, again, we're going back to more of a normal seasonality, James. Because again, they weren't closed. The U.K. universities did not really get behind again having a big January intake. They went more back to their normal cycle. I think Canada's on its normal cycle now with two more intakes in the H2 . I'd suggest the Northern Hemisphere we expect to be more now back to the seasonality we've seen before.

Australia, expectation of a strong semester two, and then, as it, you know, works back in terms of pipeline and interest, probably getting back to more normal as we move into the H2 of FY 2023.

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Okay. Maybe if you could give some assistance on what to extrapolate on the cost side in terms of you've talked about H2 OpEx at AUD 22 million a month. How do you see that going forward? Can you give us any color on your CapEx intentions?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah. Thanks, James. I'll ask Murray to respond to that.

Murray Walton
CFO, IDP Education

Thanks, James. Our expenses in the H2 , we are going to invest. We were on a pre-AASB 16, we were AUD 22 million in the H1 . H2 , we expect that will be a bit higher. The full year, you know, around AUD 23 million per month average for the full year. That sort of range.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

What was the 2nd question?

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

CapEx.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

CapEx on a cash basis, H1 was about AUD 11 million. Full year, we're expecting around AUD 30 million for all the projects that we've got underway.

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Then maybe just one follow-up. On Tim's question about IELTS Online. We didn't sort of really get to the bottom of where you expect the gross margins for this product to be. Have you got any color on what that could look like when it's mature?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

I don't think we can really respond to that at this point until we you know we finalize the pricing strategy, James. I think it's something we'll have to come back around on.

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Mm.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

You know, later in this half.

James Bales
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Got it. Thanks, guys.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Thanks, James.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Piers Flanagan from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Piers Flanagan
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Morning, Andrew, Murray, and Craig. Just a couple from me if I could. Just firstly, just on the industry growth. I mean, if you think about sort of the deferrals that you had during COVID, do you have sort of a rough sense of, I guess, what the unwinds was in the H1 , or what was captured in the H1 ?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

I think, I mean, Piers, you know, our view is, it has been interesting in that, the U.K. and Canada have primarily remained open. You know, for those students who have been, you know, wanting to go study and therefore being part of that kind of underlying structural, you know, growth story, they, you know, primarily have gone and done it in the Northern Hemisphere location. What you're seeing there, from our view, is not primarily a rebound from a pent-up demand, but just the continued demand to study. Now, in that number, of course, would be some students who would have chosen to switch locations, and that would primarily be from Australia to the U.K.

I think, you know, we don't see, you know, deferrals necessarily as, you know, reflecting a big impact within those Northern Hemisphere numbers. I think more likely, you know, we'll see the deferral demand, if you like, in terms of rebound coming back to Australia, given that the borders have been closed and people have opted out of doing online study in Australia because of concerns around when and if borders would open.

Piers Flanagan
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Sure. Maybe just on the expansion of the office footprint in India. I mean, do you have full coverage now in India? How should we think about, I guess, the growth from some of the new regions you've expanded into?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yeah. Well, India, the 23 offices that we've expanded into India are into what we would call 2nd-tier cities. In many respects, they're you know, kind of land and expand footprints. They're you know, smaller offices. They're being run by the existing infrastructure and overhead we have in India. That expanded footprint, we would then look to, or that expanded network, we then look to continue to invest in as the opportunity presents itself. You know, India will be the largest international student market clearly for some years to come. It's like 12 different countries in its own right in terms of regional services and differences.

We, you know, we see that as being an important market for us to dominate and we do, of course, in both testing and now in student placement. We will continue to look to expand in India. Outside of that, we've identified Nigeria as a key priority. It's a very important source market for students to the U.K. Equally as Australian universities and Canadians look to diversify their cohort, and Nigeria is an important market. We do believe there is a great subset of high-quality students there for our quality universities. We're looking to accelerate that. Pakistan, which we entered into from an IELTS and student placement perspective probably about 18 months ago, we've got plans to further invest in that market. We think that'll be a very strong market.

The Philippines as well is a market we want to invest in. Those are some of the ones on the top of the list at the moment from a student placement perspective.

Piers Flanagan
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Sure. Just the final one, and probably more of a long-dated question. If we think about sort of the overall market in terms of student placement volumes, I mean, is there any dialogue at the moment with institutions or clients about using some of, you know, your online capabilities to reach a new subset of students that, you know, potentially they're happy to do maybe online courses or stay in country?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Well, I mean, from a preference perspective, international students want to be in country. Now, I mean, from our business model perspective, you know, for us, it doesn't really matter whether they choose to begin online and ultimately go into country or whether they choose to do their course online. You know, our business model still enables us to receive a commission regardless. We really focus on what's right for the student. From a university or a college perspective, absolutely, there's a lot of work we're doing with our IDP Connect team. We have a team of capable people who work with the universities on their international recruitment strategy. That includes, you know, volume and diversity and quality.

In that context, as those clients you see come on IDP Live, they're using that platform to specifically identify student cohorts that fulfill their international recruitment objectives, and then using that platform to connect with those students digitally, to compete with other institutions on that platform for the best possible student. I think in that context, we'll see, you know, our strategic position with the universities only grow with that technology innovation that we're working with them on.

Piers Flanagan
Analyst, Barrenjoey

That's great. Thanks for that. That's all for me.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Thanks, Piers.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Matt Johnston from Jarden. Please go ahead.

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Good morning, Andrew, Murray, Craig. Can you hear me okay?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Yes, Matt.

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Great. Maybe just on the 1st one, just looking at demand of multi-destination student placements looks really, really strong. Could you maybe provide any comments around, I guess, supply side capacity constraints that could potentially be easing, as we recover from COVID?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Supply side as in terms of university places? Is that where you're thinking?

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Yeah. Then maybe

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Or-

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

An extension to that, extra places unis will give you as you take market share.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

I understand the question. I mean, certainly, let's just move around. I see no supply side issues in Australia, none in the U.K. Of course, the U.K. has been impacted by Brexit and the loss of a large cohort of students who would've traveled in from Europe, only having to pay domestic fees, now have to pay international fees. I think in the last set of data I saw, about 37% decline in EU students to the U.K. Definitely, no supply side capacity issues there. As we move to Canada, not in the university sector, but I think we'll continue to see supply side constraints in the college sector.

The Canadian government is working and has released, I guess, support for, you know, private-public partnerships, in particular in the career colleges. I think we're likely to see a supply side expansion in that part of the market as new colleges come online. That will help alleviate some of the, you know, some of the supply side constraints. Remember, that's primarily a supply side constraint for a specific cohort of students, a large one coming out of Northern India looking to connect to permanent residency in Canada. We've got quite a few initiatives in place in that regard. Of course, we work with the likes of Conestoga and other of the large Canadian colleges on their strategic approach to bringing in the best possible students for their courses.

We equally have an initiative whereby we reserve and we have allocated seats for IDP students in those colleges to ensure that we can, you know, we've got places available for IDP. That's quite unique. They don't do that with other competitors. We're able to, because of our, you know, position and the quality of students we bring, reserve our own capacity, if you like, and we continue to expand that. I guess net-net, no, I don't see any supply-side constraints that are going to impact us in the near term.

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Okay, that's very helpful. Maybe just on the BC India acquisition now that's in IDP terms, could you provide a bit more color on 1st looks and maybe just anything new on synergies in terms of timing or anything extra you may have come across since it's in your hands?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Well, I think we did, when we did the acquisition, we made the market aware. The part of our business case reflected operational synergies that we would, you know, seek to harvest in FY 2023. This year was all about, you know, ensuring that we did a smooth integration, that our reputation as an acquirer was well regarded with BC, et cetera. Now, you know, we've fulfilled those objectives and we are, as I said, running ahead on where we believe we will get synergies.

I think, you know, to quantify things, we believe we'll be able to bring around AUD 10 million worth of EBIT impact around operational synergies into this financial year and, you know, increase that probably up to around AUD 20 million we're expecting in 2023. We are proving to be very successful in streamlining the operations, removing some of the overheads that were in their business. Of course, that's been a key priority for us to ensure that acquisition was successful.

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Great. Just to follow on, just, optically, the IELTS volumes look really strong. Was there any fallout between any of the partners? There was a bit of media attention around it when the acquisition went through. Was there any sort of fallout that you observed?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

No fallout. You know, I meet with the CEOs on a monthly basis. You know, I think BC is very pleased with the way we've handled the acquisition and the integration of the acquisition, treating their people with respect as we do, you know, with our own. No, nothing untoward has come from it at all.

Matt Johnston
VP of Equity Research, Jarden

Okay, great. That's it for me. Thanks, Andrew. Thank you. Your next question comes from Jon Huhn from E&P. Please go ahead.

Jon Huhn
Analyst, E&P

Hi. Hey, guys. Thank you. I just wanted to ask about the student placement market and your market share in Canada and the U.K., and whether you get a feel of where that's trending as well.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Johnny, no, I don't have a really good feel on that at the moment. I mean, obviously, you know, when we talk to market share, you know, we have a mid to long-term objective around our market share position for the Northern Hemisphere. We know we hold a you know, a 20%-25% market share in Australia for you know, those students who use an agent. That is an objective of ours through you know, through to 2025 to reach that same kind of level in the U.K. and in Canada.

It's been difficult because of the disruption that we've had to get a clear view on market share, and indeed some of the reporting that comes out is not of a timely standard that enables us to do that. I think, you know, I think we'll get a better feel before the end of the year. My view is, in aggregate, maybe our market share has declined a little bit for the U.K., but it's not something I'm concerned about because there's been a huge influx of Nigerian students into the U.K., into lower quality institutions, which are just students that we would not place into our high-quality client base.

I think we'll do some more work on market share as we get some better data towards the end of the year, looking at the clients that we serve, the profile of the students that we bring to them, and just see whether we can get again a clearer view of where that's at.

Jon Huhn
Analyst, E&P

Okay, great. That's really helpful. My 2nd question is, I just wanted to ask about the contract assets and just wanted to understand what's happened, as the number looks quite high for compared to the last couple of years.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

It's a little higher, but that's as we've got some Canadian, U.S., and U.K. revenue that we've recognized, and we just didn't cut the invoices until January for quite a bit of that. So that's why there's a step up. It's not an issue, though.

Jon Huhn
Analyst, E&P

Okay, great. Thanks. That's all from me.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Thanks, Johnny.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Shreyas Singh from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Shreyas Singh
Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Hi there. Two questions from my side. Number one, for India, can you talk a little bit about the competitive dynamics in the student placement market, particularly with respect to ApplyBoard and new-age competitors like Leverage Edu? How's your market share trending versus them, and how's your growth trending versus them?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

You know, I mean, I don't have in front of me exactly what ApplyBoard numbers are. Shreyas, I mean, we're in very different markets to them. We are in India a direct business in 67 offices, and you know, we're leveraging our direct counseling model along with our hybrid capabilities. I think as you would know, the student placement market is a big market. ApplyBoard have taken an approach where they, you know, they simply enable small agents to access their clients' agreements. Our objective is to continue to own the top of the funnel through our more advanced marketing events, our direct teams, and our deep relationships with clients. Yeah, I don't have any particular data, but ApplyBoard is not somebody I'm setting out to compete with.

We're setting out to continue to execute on our strategy. I'm not really interested in going into a B2B style of model. We'll do high-quality students from our network to our high-quality institutions with closely aligned strategies. Other than that, no, I don't see you know and nor do you know the teams on the ground see a great impact from the likes of ApplyBoard and others. I think we're very uniquely positioned with a global network of experts and technology and data to assist our clients.

Shreyas Singh
Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Understood. Thank you. The 2nd question was, again, how's IELTS placed versus other English tests, like Pearson, PTE in India? Anything you're seeing on the ground in terms of market share movements?

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

I'm not seeing anything on the ground. I mean, IELTS continues to be the world's most popular high-stakes English language test. You know, it's the only test available to an Indian student or migrant that gives them access across multiple English-speaking countries and multiple countries from a migration perspective. As you're aware, our growth in India was substantive. I said, yeah, 200% as we added the business from BC. But IELTS in itself, and I think it's reflected on that page 17, is growing substantially in India. I think when we look at any data, whether it be surrogate data from Google searches or what have you, it has by far and away the dominant share in terms of customer preference.

I think what's interesting, Shreyas, is also there's in India there still is a real demand for paper. 80% of the tests done in India are done on paper, even though we've got now a significant computer-delivered center. The mix of having it accepted by, you know, the largest number of governments and education institutions, and then having a choice of what medium you take it in. Remember, a significant prep industry around there in terms of ecosystem supporting it. It's remained, and clearly, I think our competitors have had a very difficult time and have not yet really dented that position in India.

Shreyas Singh
Analyst, Bank of America Securities

Understood. Thank you. I'll come back with questions later.

Andrew Barkla
CEO and Managing Director, IDP Education

Okay. All right. I think at that point, we're past the hour. Thank you all very much for your questions today, and I look forward, I know through the course of the next 5 or 6 days of catching up with many of you. Thank you for joining the call, and we'll speak to you all, I'm sure, shortly. Cheers, everyone. Thank you, operator. We'll now close out the call.

Powered by