Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our full year 2024 results briefing. I'm Mike Sneesby, CEO of Nine Entertainment, and joining me here today is our Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Matt Stanton. I'd like to start off by acknowledging the traditional custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their elders, past, present, and emerging, and extend that respect to all First Nations people today. For myself, I'm on the land of the Cammeraygal people of the Eora Nation. Through 2024, we've focused on bringing together and executing our strategy to maximize the scale and diversity of our audiences and revenues through our unique suite of media assets. We create and acquire Australia's best content and journalism, attracting large and engaged audiences as we continue to integrate our data and audience platforms.
Our rich understanding of our audiences underpins the delivery of personalized, integrated experiences and maximizes our commercial opportunities across the broad range of revenue models, including advertising, subscriptions, licensing, and transactions. As highlighted in our investor presentation in May, this combination of content and data, supported by our investment in technology and AI, creates the foundations for Nine's unique integrated audience platform. The uniqueness stemming from the depth and breadth of our first-party data across multiple media platforms and, of course, including Domain. It gives us clear competitive advantage through the ability to target, coupled with the ability to understand and analyze audience preferences. Through 2024, we have done much to further build on the foundations of this strategy.
Importantly, we have upgraded our group-wide consumer data platform, moving from a platform managing relatively static data with limited product development flexibility, to a platform that is already collecting more than 1.5 billion real-time data points each month, while supporting more flexible product development, a significant enhancement to our capabilities. We also completed major streaming product and technology updates ahead of the Paris Games, similarly, giving us significant incremental capabilities. We have continued to invest in our premium content, which has underpinned the growth in registered users at 9Now and subscription revenues at both Stan and publishing. We have grown targeted advertising. That's the advertising which has attracted a premium through the application of our first-party data by a further 15%.
We continue to see significant opportunities to generate value through commercial partnerships that utilize Nine's unique media assets and the capability of the global tech platforms. To this end, in FY 2024, notwithstanding Meta's decision to disengage, we have broadened our relationship with Google and continue to pursue other commercial licensing arrangements with the platforms that use and gain value from our content. Nine's approach to generative AI has evolved over the past 12 months. We've engaged to varying degrees with major AI platforms about the use of Nine's content and IP to develop their models, their platforms, and their consumer experiences. We have continued to increase our use of AI tools to reduce costs through initiatives like captioning and grow revenues through incremental content creation.
We have recently updated our websites to now exclude generative AI platforms from using our content without our express permission, while we continue discussions around various commercial models for the use of our premium content and exclusive IP. We believe there is inherent material value in our content, and as with the framework provided under the News Media Bargaining Code, the use of that content and IP will require a fair value exchange between the parties. We have worked closely with Domain, supporting their goal of increased awareness with an always-on approach, increasing the value of our marketing support by almost 20% year- on- year, and delivering Domain a 169% lift in the frequency of connection with Nine's valuable audience.
All of this has been achieved on a lower cost base, with underlying efficiencies offsetting the important investments in content and technology, which underpin long-term growth opportunities. We are incredibly proud of what our people have achieved this year and recognize the challenges they face as the difficult operating market has resulted in ongoing cost efficiency measures. However, I should acknowledge that we have also faced very public commentary regarding our culture and the actions we are taking to deal with unacceptable behavior in our workplace. We take these comments and the feedback from our team members incredibly seriously and have worked with industry-leading third parties to understand the extent of any issues, and similarly, to ensure our processes and culture encourage an inclusive and positive working environment. We have committed to sharing the outcomes of these reports with our people when they're available.
We've done much over the past three years to improve our culture, including introducing our organizational purpose and values, focusing on inclusion through creating our Nine employee communities, investing in leadership development for all of our leaders, and continuing to listen and action feedback from our company-wide employee surveys. With a focus on the safety and well-being of employees, we are determined to demonstrate cultural leadership within our industry. Through the Olympics and Paralympics in Paris, the power of Nine's integrated audience platform has come to life. When we initially bid for the Olympic rights, we reflected on the evolution of our business since London 2012, when we broadcasted just a single free-to-air television channel to Australian audiences.... We committed to delivering the games across all of our platforms in a way that put our audiences and advertisers first.
This meant every part of our business needed to work together, not just to come up with a digital-first strategy of unprecedented quality and scale, but then to execute this within 18 months, and as we expected, these games were like no other. With 40 channels of amazing content available across 9Now and Stan, highlighted across Nine's audio assets, mastheads, and websites, the Paris Olympics proved to be an enormously successful event for us, and one that clearly demonstrates the merits of our strategy, and significantly enhancing positioning for the future. Across the games, Nine achieved an unprecedented daily national total TV average reach of almost 10 million people. We grew Stan Sport subscribers by more than 50%, which also pulled through new and incremental subscribers to Stan Entertainment. Olympic coverage also drove strong subscription sign-ups to our mastheads and incremental audiences to our audio assets.
These unprecedented audiences gave us data and insights to fuel the future of our integrated data platform, and of course, there'll be more from the Paralympics starting today. We have commented consistently that we expected to break even from the games. Nine's unique suite of assets and our ability to reach audiences across multiple platforms has ensured we will deliver a meaningful profit outcome from the Olympics and the Paralympics in Paris, with revenue from both advertising and subscription attributed directly to the games expected to be over AUD 160 million. Moving now to our results. While the advertising market over the past 12 months was challenging, there were some clear highlights across the period.
Now accounting for around half of total group revenues, Nine's digital revenue grew by around 5% across the 12 months, with growth in each of Nine's key digital assets: streaming, metro media, audio, and marketplaces, both Domain and Drive. This growth was underpinned by our growing digital audiences. Across the year, we recorded growth in audiences across each of our key wholly-owned platforms. At Nine, we recorded growth in daily active users and live minutes streamed. At Stan, across 12 months, content consumption based on minutes watched grew both on a total and on a per-subscriber basis for both Stan and Stan Sport. At our total audio business, total stream listening hours grew by 15%, while the proportion of subscribers regularly visiting our mastheads increased over the financial year, a strong result given significant growth in the subscriber base.
While traditional media revenues were down on PCP, our audience results and revenue share results were strong. In particular, we grew actual free-to-air audiences, which resulted in a full-year share of 40% in terms of revenue, including a second-half share of 41.2%. Subscription and licensing revenues are now more than 30% of wholly owned revenue, with 5% growth for the year and growth at both Stan and publishing. Contributing to this were price increases at Stan Entertainment and our mastheads. These price increases were enabled by strong audience and subscriber engagement, a result of Nine's commitment to premium and exclusive content. Our overall cost base was slightly lower in FY 2024 compared with FY 2023. We removed around AUD 65 million of costs from the business across the year, while continuing to invest in technology and content.
Of this AUD 65 million, around AUD 47 million dollars is regarded as underlying, with a similar outcome anticipated in FY 2025. At this point, I'd like to ask Matt Stanton, our Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, to talk through the group financials.
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. For the year to June, Nine reported group revenue of AUD 2.6 billion, down marginally on the prior comparable period, and group EBITDA of AUD 517 million, which included the AUD 8 million of benefit from the H1 onerous contract write-down. Group net profit after tax and minorities and before specific items was AUD 189 million. On a statutory basis and inclusive of a specific item cost of AUD 82 million, net profit for the year was AUD 135 million. We worked hard to achieve our cost performance in FY 2024.
Reported costs, ex Domain, were AUD 14 million lower, notwithstanding investments of around AUD 11 million in the growth of Stan, which was more than offset by higher revenue, as well as AUD 15 million relating to sport, which continues to attract premium audiences. We also invested in our employees through an average salary increase of 3.5%, which added around AUD 20 million. Offsetting these investments and wage inflation, Nine removed around AUD 65 million of other costs from the business, of which AUD 47 million is regarded as underlying, the remainder a reflection primarily of timing and short-term benefits. Over the past couple of years, we have been focused on rebalancing our cost base, allowing us to continue to invest in the content, data, and technology that generates returns and underpins our long-term strategy and competitive position.
We expect to take a further AUD 50 million of underlying costs out in FY 2025, equating to a two-year total of around AUD 100 million. Slide 10 details the composition of specific items, which totaled a pre-tax cost of AUD 107 million for the year. Focusing on the second half, impairment of goodwill, other intangibles, PP&E, and investments of AUD 22 million relate mainly to the impairment of the Pedestrian Group, of which the restructuring has already been announced. Restructuring costs of AUD 20 million were mainly made of redundancies as per the broader groups program announced in late June. On page 11, we look at operating cash flows. Focusing on the wholly owned business, so it ties into the wholly owned net debt. For the year, cash flow from operating activities was AUD 280 million, excluding the Domain Group.
This was down on FY 2023, due both to the lower profitability as well as the working capital impact of the Paris Games, which will reverse in H1 of FY 2025. Adjusting for this, Nine's cash conversion was a solid 93%. On page 12, we have reconciled net debt of the wholly owned group from the starting position of first of July 2023, of AUD 339 million to the AUD 489 million we have reported for 30th of June 2024. Beyond the operating cash flow movements from wholly owned businesses, as detailed on the previous slide, Nine distributed dividends of AUD 146 million to shareholders, and capital expenditure was AUD 99 million. During the year, Nine also invested AUD 68 million in our on-market buyback.
We bought back and canceled a further 42 million shares. Since we started two years ago, we have bought almost 120 million shares and invested more than AUD 220 million. During this time, we have also seen interest rates lift significantly, while the advertising market has proven to be weaker than expected. We've therefore decided not to extend the buyback, ensuring we retain balance sheet flexibility to engage with value-accretive, organic or inorganic opportunities as they emerge. We have also announced a fully franked FY 2024 final dividend of AUD 0.045, which equates to 73% of our earnings per share, so at the higher end of our targeted payout range. It also equates to an annualized, fully franked yield of around 5.7%.
On a wholly owned basis, importantly, our balance sheet remains strong, with leverage at the end of June of around 1.2x EBITDA, providing operational and strategic flexibility. I'll now hand back to Mike to add some further color on the divisional results.
Thanks, Matt. Looking first at television. The advertising market continued to be challenging through all of FY 2024. With the backdrop of a 9% decline in the total TV ad market, Nine recorded a TV revenue decline of 10% to AUD 1.1 billion, with more than 16% of this revenue derived from digital sources. Our audience and cost performance in FY 2024 were key to this result. In FY 2024, while reported costs were down slightly, we achieved underlying cost savings of AUD 47 million, of which almost 90% is regarded as ongoing. These savings more than offset the increased investment in sports, including the UK Ashes, the increase in staff costs of around AUD 9 million, as well as some incremental investment in technology. This reflected the company-wide focus on cost efficiency whilst maintaining targeted investment in our future.
Across the year, Nine recorded real audience growth for total TV in both total people and the 25 to 54s. That is 3.6% growth and 2.7% growth in actual audiences of our live content. We recorded growth and market-leading share in both metro, free-to-air, and live BVOD audiences in our key demographics in FY 2024. This is a marked and pleasing turnaround from the long-term trend in free-to-air, while the continued growth in BVOD reflects Nine's market-leading content, as well as a significant investment in technology we've made over the past year, focusing on improving both consumer and advertiser experience. This strength in audience gives us renewed confidence about our ability to grow our total television revenues through the cycle. At the end of calendar 2024, VOZ will become the currency for total television.
VOZ allows us to measure the total reach of our premium content across all screens. VOZ proves the power of total television to build reach at speed more effectively than any other channel. This is changing the conversations with media buyers and marketers. Turning now to Stan. Stan delivered a strong result for FY 2024, underpinned by 8% growth in ARPU, solid subscriber performance, and discipline on cost, which allowed us to continue to invest in content and technology. Stan's revenue growth of 5% to AUD 448 million, coupled with a 3% increase in costs, resulted in 24% growth in EBITDA to AUD 46 million. Revenue growth reflected the March 2024 basic tier price increase for entertainment subscribers, whilst also cycling the September 2022 sport increase.
Stan also phased out its entertainment free trial in Q4, following removal of the sport free trial in August of 2023. Current paying subscribers increased to 2.3 million, reflecting the strength of Stan's differentiated content offering, as well as subscriber increases resulting from the Paris Olympic Games. Nine expects some moderation of subscribers as the Olympic and Paralympic Games come to an end. Stan's margins expanded across the year, with cost growth of just 3% and costs lower in the second half. Stan continues to successfully manage the balance of growth and profitability and consolidate its strong market position. Stan Originals have been a significant driver of performance, delivering seven of the top 10 series shown on Stan over the past 12 months...
21 titles were released as Stan Originals across the year, and we are particularly proud of The Tattooist of Auschwitz, which has been recognized with two Emmy Award nominations. There were also some great moments on Stan Sport in FY 2024. The Rugby World Cup, which attracted very strong viewership, notwithstanding a disappointing Australian performance. Amazing Grand Slam tennis, as the women's tour delivered surprises and the men's tour witnessed a changing of the guard, including the continued emergence of some new Australian stars. And an exciting UEFA Champions League final at Wembley Stadium between Dortmund and Real Madrid. Stan's coverage of Paris 2024 , which featured Australian firsts for Olympics coverage, including 4K and international channels, also delivered viewing records and boosted Stan Sport's subscriber base by 50% over the period, with the Paralympics still to come.
Stan's subscriber strength continues to be driven by its differentiation, originals, and sport, while its positioning as the profitable local SVOD leader stands it in good stead as the market continues to evolve. Globally, SVOD has broadly returned to a profit and cash flow focus, which naturally leads towards a greater prioritization of content licensing and other distribution partnerships, particularly in markets like Australia. Turning now to page 17. In total, publishing reported revenue of AUD 559 million and a combined EBITDA of AUD 153 million. Within this result, Nine's core metro business markedly outperformed, with a weak digital programmatic advertising market impacting Nine's other digital publishing assets. The key exception to this was Drive, which reported growth in revenues of around 6% as we successfully focused on broadening the revenue base to the marketplace model.
On page 18, we take a closer look at our masthead business. We were very pleased with our digital subscriber performance, both in terms of subscriber numbers and in ARPU. Increases in subscriber numbers and the price at the SMH and The Age and The Australian Financial Review more than offset the decline in print masthead sales. The ability to lift price reflects Nine's ongoing commitment to quality public interest journalism and remains a further opportunity. Nine's metro mastheads were, however, impacted by the softness in the broader advertising market. Print advertising held up relatively well, declining by 9% across the year, while digital advertising revenue declined by 16% across the 12 months. In FY 2024, costs at the metro mastheads remained flat, with investments in journalism and inflation in wages and print operations offset by other cost initiatives.
Domain's result reflected the improving property market as new listings growth improved each quarter, led by Melbourne and Sydney. The 14% growth in digital revenues was underpinned by 19% growth in the core residential business. National for-sale listings increased by 3%, while the controllable elements of price and depth together were 14% higher. Domain also recorded strong revenue growth from its media commercial real estate businesses and Domain Insight businesses, highlighting the importance of Domain's marketplace strategy. Total costs increased by 7%, with higher employee costs being the main driver, reflecting both underlying inflation and employee incentives. Reported EBITDA margins increased by around four percentage points, consistent with earlier guidance.
Domain reported EBITDA of AUD 137 million, up 26%, which equated to AUD 136 million EBITDA to our results due to our inclusion of Domain Home Loans, classified by Domain as a discontinued business. We are pleased with the operating performance of Domain through FY 2024, and similarly pleased with the increased level of strategic cooperation between our two businesses. We believe that Domain's competitive market position is supported strongly by Nine's media assets. Nine delivers material audiences to Domain, differentiated and incremental to its peers. Nine also provides marketing support through brand integrations and audience referrals, through publishing and video content created by Nine, through the economies of scale for printing, and more recently, through Nine's bespoke AI tool, Nine Ad Manager, which enables a video listing to be served in targeted areas via 9Now.
Being part of Nine's integrated audience platform provides Domain with unique opportunities to engage interested consumers with the right content and offers in premium environments. Moreover, as Nine's business becomes increasingly digital, the opportunities to drive value across Nine from Domain's data continues to grow through deeper engagement with consumers and the ability to keep those consumers within the broader Nine platform. Turning now to audio. The four-city metro linear radio advertising market slowed through Q2 and Q3 before recovering to growth of 2.6% in Q4. Nine's revenue declined by 3%, with the weaker broadcast market partially offset by 35% growth in digital and streaming revenues. In the latest Survey Five, released yesterday, 2GB and 3AW remained the number one broadcast stations in Sydney and Melbourne, respectively.
Nine was also number one in live streaming commercial share as the group's focus on total audio gathers momentum. Radio costs increased marginally, with incremental investment in digital and associated content offsetting underlying cost-out initiatives. Before we turn to trading, I'd like to say a few words about the current regulatory environment. Our industry has been the subject of significant regulatory review over the past 12 months, including prominence, anti-siphoning, and gambling advertising. We've also seen the News Media Bargaining Code challenged as Meta demonstrates its intention to disregard the policy behind the code. The common theme across the majority of these regulatory matters relates to the increasing dominance of global tech companies.
The rate at which these companies are broadening and deepening their influence is becoming an increasing threat across a wide range of industries, including media, creating greater urgency for the government to act quickly and decisively in the interest of all Australians. I now turn to current trading. FY 2025 has started on a positive note for Nine, with strong audience and revenue performances across multiple platforms driven by the Paris Olympic Games. While the underlying advertising market remains subdued, particularly in free-to-air, digital display, and print publishing, Nine expects it will show more positive trends as the year progresses. Reflecting our strong Olympic performance, Nine currently expects Q1 metro free-to-air revenues to grow by almost 10% on PCP, while 9Now is expected to grow revenue in Q1 by around 50%.
Combined, this equates to total TV revenue growth in the mid-teens % on a percentage basis in the current quarter. The total TV market is currently expected to decline in the low to mid-single digits % on a percentage basis in Q1 FY 2025 on PCP. As 9Now grows in relative importance, expected to be around 20% of Nine's total television revenues in FY 2025, and as underlying free-to-air audiences remain resilient, Nine's confidence in its ability to grow its total television revenues through the cycle builds, marking a significant point of inflection for the business. Excluding the Games' impact, total television costs are expected to be marginally higher in FY 2025 over FY 2024.
Increased costs associated with underlying inflation, the new Australian Open contract, as well as the targeted investment in technology and content associated with the growth in 9Now, will be mainly offset by ongoing cost efficiencies across the business. FY 2025 is expected to be another year of growth at Stan, with revenue growth expected to more than offset higher costs, most notably from the new UEFA contract. With the absence of digital platform revenue from Meta in FY 2025, revenue and earnings from Nine Publishing are expected to be down year on year. However, digital subscriptions growth and a focus on a sustainable cost base is now expected to lay the foundations for increasing profitability for the mastheads on a longer-term basis. Digital subscription revenue growth is expected in the low double digits on a percentage basis in Q1 on PCP.
Through July, Domain has experienced ongoing growth, with new for-sale listings up 4% on PCP. Growth rates in its core markets of Sydney and Melbourne have moderated from the very strong FY 2024 performance, with improving momentum in the other states. FY 2025 cost growth, estimated in the high single-digit to low double-digit range on a percentage basis, reflects the ongoing investment in the growth of the business, and it's expected to result in stable EBITDA margins in FY 2025. Nine Audio's Q1 advertising revenues are expected to grow in the mid-single digits on a percentage basis, with further strong growth in digital revenues, coupled with expected low single-digit growth in broadcast radio.
We spoke about our strategy at the start of the presentation, and this slide is a reminder of the strategic priorities which underpin our operations, notwithstanding the impact of the cycle on our FY 2024 results. We believe Nine has the opportunity to create value through the combination of our unique capabilities across both our traditional and growing digital platforms, content, data, and our integrated audience platform. As we look to FY 2025, we have some clear ambitions. Our unprecedented lineup of sports underpins our confidence in our content slate. We intend to augment this live content with an increasing range of fast channels. After a popular and profitable Paris Games, we have the opportunity to extend the applications of our consumer data platform through additional subscribers and the data associated with heavy periods of content consumption. We will increasingly use AI tools to optimize these applications.
We expect total TV revenue growth in FY 2025, of course, underpinned by the Olympics, but also a reflection of the evolving profile of our television advertising. Growth in BVOD to an estimated 20% of the total television revenue, offsetting the longer-term structural decline in free-to-air broadcast. We are bullish about further growth in subscription revenues across Stan and publishing, driven by both ARPU and subscriber strength. We are focused on ensuring maximum potential from licensing deals as we seek to ensure we are appropriately compensated for the usage of our content and IP. We share a focus with Domain on growing its core listings business, and we are committed to the further AUD 50 million of underlying cost out as we rebalance our cost base whilst continuing to invest in our future. Events like the Olympics and Paralympics demonstrate the benefit of Nine's integrated audience platform.
They showcase Nine's unique ability to distribute both content and advertising and sponsorship across multiple platforms: television, streaming, publishing, and audio. The result being bigger audiences across all of Nine's platforms, including marketplaces, which will underpin greater returns on content investment... That concludes the formal part of the presentation today. We'll move to the couch now, where we'll be joined by Nine's Chief Sales Officer, Michael Stephenson.
You get the feeling. Yeah. This is big right here. Here we go!
This is the time of year. Superstars shine brighter.
The cream rises to the top.
Oh, they are on fire!
Every win counts to make the finals.
And a shot-
-at footy's ultimate prize.
It's all on the line.
How good is this?
This is the only place you want to be. [audio distortion]
So now we'll open the lines to questions. As usual, I'd ask if you've got multiple questions to please ask those questions one at a time, and we'll give you a response. So, operator, if you could pass through our first question.
Thank you. Your first question comes from Eric Choi with Barrenjoey.
Hey, good morning, Mike and team. My first question, can I just clarify what the dollar cost of Olympics in FY 2025 will be, presuming that's in TV? And if you can't, maybe just whether you'd expect your TV revenues to still grow in FY 2025 if you excluded the Olympics revenue uplift?
Yeah, thanks, Eric. So look, I won't go into the specific costs of the Olympics, but I will reiterate what we've said publicly before, and that is that we've generated over AUD 140 million in advertising, and we expect to generate more than AUD 160 million in total across advertising and subscription revenues. In terms of looking forward, underlying, you would have heard from the commentary that we've given guidance around total TV revenue expected to grow year- on- year. Underlying that overall result, which has the games in there, we'd also expect to see slight growth in total TV, notwithstanding the games' revenue.
Good one. Crystal clear, Mike. Just pivoting, and I'm thinking ahead, sorry, to FY 2026 and potentially FY 2026 leverage, because I think we're all trying to work out what mid-cycle EBITDA for NEC looks like. Over the past three years, it's probably dropped from 700 to 600 to 500 now. If we saw a cyclical rebound in FY 2026, I'm just wondering how much of each advertising dollar in, say, TV and publishing would drop through to EBITDA?
Yeah, I might get Matt to give you a bit of color on that.
Yeah, sure. Hi, Eric. Yeah, look, what will happen is the majority of that revenue will drop through, given you know, the underlying AUD 100 million of cost out of 2024 and 2025 coming out of the business. And as the ad revenue cycle returns, that should drop through. In TV, pretty much all of it drops through. There's commissions and COGS that we have that are taken off that, but most of it comes through. A little bit more COGS and commissions out of the publishing side of the business, but you know, the majority of the revenue will drop through to the EBITDA level.
Excellent. Thanks, Matt. Last one, if I could, just on Domain. Just do you think you need to own as much as 60%? Would there be merit in bringing in a strategic partner? I'm just wondering, is there a win-win scenario where a strategic partner gets to pick up Domain on a potentially depressed share price, and you guys get to end up owning a smaller percentage of a much bigger EV?
Yeah, look, I think you'll see from our commentary today that our conviction behind Domain, and particularly the ability to drive value in both directions, you would have seen a couple of slides there talking about how Domain fits with Nine's integrated audience platform and the success we're having across our business in generating value. As I say, both ways, data coming from Domain, but also our audiences flowing into Domain and giving the structural strength and its position in the market. So our conviction has never been greater. We've had a huge focus with the team at Domain over the last six to 12 months around ensuring that we maximize value in that business, and we continue to look at all the options to ensure that we are maximizing shareholder value.
Okay. Thanks again, Mike.
Thanks, Eric.
Our next question comes from [Andrew Rakowski with ANT] .
Morning, all. I also wanted to ask about the Olympics cost, and I know you've maybe been asked one way, but I'll perhaps look at it from a different angle. So based on your comments around how much revenue you've written, AUD 140 million advertising revenue, you've made a AUD 77 million prepayment. Sounds like the total Olympics costs would be well over AUD 100 million. I'm assuming you're not making a huge margin on it. Is that... So is that a fair ballpark number?
I mean, look, you've obviously picking up on what we've taken through in terms of prepayments from a cash point of view. They don't necessarily line up specifically with how we take that through the P&L, and you've got to factor in the cost of production. And when we talk about the profitability of the games, we've loaded in all costs into that that view and commentary around profitability. So it's the, it's the rights fees, it's the cost of production, it's the cost of you know, taking our team over to Paris as part of that, and it, and also the cost of any revenue that we displace as part of broadcasting the game.
So the profitability guidance factors in everything, but yeah, you won't necessarily see the same match-up of payments and P&L.
... Okay, thank you. And I've got a question on Stan, where revenues were, looks like they were down about 1% in the second half, despite the price increase that you put through. Can you perhaps talk to what were the factors that drove this? I mean, I know the first half was really strong, but there was obviously that moderation. And then presume the benefits of the Olympics to subscribers didn't come through until the first quarter of 2025?
Yeah, that's, that is correct. And I think what you'll start to see now, we've always spoken about Stan Sport, as being somewhat seasonal, so it's tied to the major sports and events. You'll see subscriber numbers lift, and therefore, ARPU and revenue lift when there's big events on, and equally, roll off afterwards, similar to the commentary we've given around our expectation of subscribers, in this financial year as a result of the Olympic Games. So you'll see, I think the major difference there will be phasing of particular events and how much revenue we're generating on the Stan Sport side of the business.
Okay, great. Thank you, and the final one is around 9Now. I know you had some issues in the first half around pricing and a weaker market, and then looks like 9Now growth in the second half was slightly below the BVOD market. I mean, not a big difference, but I think 10% versus 12%-13% for the market. Can you talk to whether some of the issues that you had around pricing in the first half have been resolved, and how that... I suspect with the Olympics, that's less of an issue going forward, but whether that's something you're concerned about at all?
Yeah, look, I'll get Stevo to give you a bit of additional color, but I think it's important to note, we continue to give a benchmark against the, let's call it the traditional, BVOD market, to give a sense of how we're traveling. But increasingly, as you'll hear us talking, the focus we have is in growing the revenue that we take from the total, digital video market, so that becomes a more important indicator, albeit there isn't a regular benchmark that we have in order to be able to provide that with some visibility. But maybe, Stevo, if you just want to talk to the pricing and how you see that sort of flowing through from first half to second half.
Yeah, we, as I mentioned, at the half years, what we did do late last year is introduce seasonal pricing. So to introduce pricing based on where we saw demand and supply opportunities, which meant reducing pricing in some quarters to maximize sell-through, and of course, therefore, you see an increase in other quarters again to maximize the opportunity when supply was less but demand was greater. So that was a one-off issue in a particular quarter that is by far and away gone away now, and you know, what we've seen through the second half is the flow-on effect, if you like, of the agency group deals that we have, which cover all of our assets, including BVOD and 9Now.
And of course, because of the Olympics and the underlying strength of audience, those deals have all increased. But of course, they calendar year deals, so you'll see a lot of the benefit for those deals flow through into the second half, which is why you've seen that slight share decline in BVOD and, of course, also through TV.
Okay, thank you. Maybe just a very final one. This is hopefully a really straightforward one. What dollar value of advertising dollars do you think the Olympics added to the TV market? You've given us the 140 number, but presumably not all of that was incremental.
Yeah, look, I mean, it's. I'm not going to go down to breaking down what displaced revenue looks like versus gross revenue, and it is hard to get an exact number on what that looks like. Having said that, we're very confident that including displaced revenue, again, the Games will be materially profitable as a result of that, but we're not going to break it down into what might be displaced versus growth.
Okay, no worries. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Fraser McLeish with MST Marquee.
Great, thanks. Yeah, I've got three, thanks. So just on the comment around the growing your total TV revenue in the second half, which is, it would obviously be a big turning point, given, you know, that's a clean half without any Olympics. What's driving that? Are you expecting market share, or is that your expectation on the market? That's my first one there.
Yeah, look, we've obviously commented for some time now that we think through the cycle that the combination of our free-to-air advertising revenues with 9Now can be positive through the cycle, and that therefore in this case is an example of that. We expect that the free-to-air market will moderate and improve into the second half, and we also expect to see continued growth and strength in our BVOD revenue. So it's a combination of the two factors.
Okay, thanks. There's no sort of one-offs impacting in that second half, is there, content-wise, or?
No.
Okay, great. My next question, just, Mike, on Stan, revenue up 5%, ARPU up 8%. What's the difference there?
Revenue in total versus ARPU? Obviously, you know, we've got we said at the last half year result, we expect that most of our revenue growth to come from ARPU increases, so price increases that we put through previously, combined with strength of Stan Sport subs in addition to the entertainment package.
I just meant that revenue growth was below ARPU, so what implies through the year, was that just slightly lower average subscribers over the year?
... I think you'll find seasonality of the sports package is the main difference there. I'd say the overall subs growth or subs position was slower in the second half, and then the seasonality of sports over the top of that.
Okay, great. And then just my last one, just on the... You talked about expanded Google deal. Is that involving any higher revenue or is that any kind of extension to your current-- I think you've still got two years left to go in your current deal? Thanks.
No, that, the comment there around, the Google partnership more broadly is really just expanding our relationship with them across a number of factors. So obviously, we have an agreement in place with them under the News Media Bargaining Code, which doesn't change, but we've continued to work with them across a number of different areas and expand that partnership, whether it be through use of technology, and they're a major provider of content delivery networks, which are obviously a big part of delivering streaming for the Olympic Games. We're working closely with them around the applications of artificial intelligence, both for efficiencies within our business and externally. So it's really about broadening the strength of the partnership across a range of different commercial and content areas.
Okay, thanks.
Your next question comes from Darren Leung with Macquarie.
Good morning, guys. Thanks for letting me in. I have three as well. Just the first one on the cost base, and I know, you know, we've had sort of initial discussions on it already, but, you know, it... When you think about the marginal cost growth for total TV in the 2025, and then, you know, call it, you know, plus AUD 77 million for lack of another term, is it as simple as we should be thinking about a high single digit, low double digit total TV cost increase in the 2025, including the Olympics?
I might get Matt to give you a bit of color on that. So you're talking, so say the number again in terms of-
Okay.
The inclusive Olympics. What were you saying?
High single digit or low double digit percentage growth, year- on- year.
Sorry, are you talking percentage or absolute numbers here, when you put-
Percentage growth, year- on- year.
On the total TV number, including the Olympics, will be mid- to mid-single-digit % growth on the cost coming through. I think that's. We can take it on notice and come back to you. I'm a bit confused on the exact question, if I'm honest.
Okay, no, that's fine. I'll move on. Just on Stan, and I've raised this question before with relation to subscribers, but I guess, when you look at this little footnote, it says the paying subscribers is 2.3 million as of end of August. Do you have the number as of end of June?
So I don't have the number in front of me, but as we said in the commentary, the Olympic Games contributed significantly to the lift. There was also strength in underlying subs from the differentiated proposition, but we did get a material lift both in our underlying Stan Entertainment subscriber base, and again, consistent with the commentary, over 50% increase in the Stan Sport base as a result of the Olympic Games, which obviously impacts from July onwards.
Yes, no, I understand. Thank you, and maybe just a final one from me. When we're thinking about the digital and publishing revenue and EBITDA guidance, is it fair for us to assume that there's nothing in there for all the potential AI partnerships that you guys are working through?
You're talking about in terms of the FY 2024 result, that there's nothing in there? Or in terms of-
No, no, FY 2025.
No, look, we haven't factored in significant amounts into our forecast, and our commentary around the engagement with AI engines is that we're at an early stage. We've reached out and in some cases had discussions with the major AI platforms, and our approach is to look at finding constructive ways of building out commercial models with those platforms. In some cases, we've had better engagement than with others, but you'll also note today we have changed our websites to stop the ability to crawl our websites whilst we're going through these conversations with the AI engines.
No, I understand. Thank you, guys.
Your next question comes from Lucy Huang with UBS.
Morning, Mike and team. I've got three questions as well. So just another follow-up on Stan. So that 2.3 million paying subscribers that you have at the end of August, what's the level of churn that you're starting to see, if you are starting to see, given we're kind of following the Olympics, we've kind of finished that. We are going to Paralympics, though, over the next couple of weeks, but what level of churn are you expecting to see? Like, do you think you can keep the incremental 100,000 that you've gained?
Yeah, look, we obviously we model any of these subscriber expectations with a view that as I said before, the seasonality of events, that we see the roll-off of subscribers. What I can say is that we've been pleased with the stickiness so far, consistent with what we'd predicted post an Olympic Games. But of course, the Paralympic Games start today, and we'd expect to see some continued traction, particularly given the interest around the Paralympic Games.
... Yeah, understood. And then just a follow-up as well on digital and publishing EBITDA. I think you mentioned publishing EBITDA is going to come down given the removal of the Meta deal. How should we think about the digital contribution? I know that you've gone through kind of a round of cost cuts, so should that be enough to offset, I guess, the decline on the publishing side into next year?
So sorry, will the cost reductions be enough to offset? No, I think we've said there in guidance, we've done a lot of work to mitigate costs in the business, but at the same time, we're also continuing to invest. We've restructured costs, we've positioned ourselves very well from an efficiency point of view. That's enabled us to mitigate a significant amount of the revenue that was there from Meta, but at the same time, we are also reinvesting, as we've said before, in the things that are gonna drive the growth of our publishing business into the future.
I think importantly, in the guidance that we've given today, we have guided to the view that we think that our publishing business, with its structure and approach, notwithstanding, Meta's revenue coming out of the business, underlying EBITDA to be able to be positive over the long term, and that's a improvement, I think, in terms of what we've seen, over the last couple of years.
Yep, no, that makes sense. And then just my final question on CapEx. So the CapEx guide of AUD 95 million-AUD 105 million suggests the spend is still quite elevated. So just wondering if you can give us some color into which projects are we expecting to invest in next year? And is this the new base for CapEx moving forward in the business longer term?
Yeah, thanks. I might get Matt to give you a bit of color.
Yeah.
Thanks.
Sure, sure. So, yeah, as we spoke about AUD 99 million CapEx this year, and where guidance is for next year is about the same sort of level. Continued investment around tech, especially around 9Now and the publishing assets. So those continued going through. There are some smaller investments as well going through, but it is about that level of where we're at as we continue to invest in the digital side of the business.
Great. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Annabel Li with Goldman Sachs.
Morning, Mike and team. Thanks for taking questions. I've just got two, please. So firstly, is there any color you can provide around what your forward bookings look like in September, October, relative to, you know, the 4%-5% decline your competitor have spoken about?
Yeah, Steve, I do want to give a bit of, you know, a bit of a view on the market more generally and, to the extent that you can.
Yeah, I think. So Mike spoke about in the presentation, obviously, around low to low single digit declines in total television over the quarter, and that we saw that improving into the second half of the year. Obviously, we had an excellent start to the year. The share results for July are already out, so we were a 48% share of revenues in that month. Obviously, we will have an excellent result in August as a result of the strength of the revenue generated into the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games. And I do see ongoing, you know, whilst the market continues to be challenged, the ad markets are directly correlated to consumer confidence, and the economic environment continues to be tough.
But we are starting to see, I would say, some marginal improvement. You know, if you have a look at the broader marketplace, in the financial year, the ad market declined by 1.6%, but total television declined by 8%. So I'm confident that as we see this normalization of audiences, that any decline in traditional audiences are more than offset by live streaming and on-demand audiences, that advertising revenue will follow that audience, and that gives us, you know, ongoing confidence about improvement into half two.
Great, thanks, and you've previously spoken about a 60% digital EBITDA target by FY 2024. That was put out in the market a few years ago, and you did 50% digital revenue this year. How do you think about what that digital mix looks like over, you know, the next three to four years? Like, would we expect it to get close to, you know, being three-quarters of your base potentially?
Yeah, look, we haven't put further guidance on what we see that growing to and over what period of time, but certainly you can take from the focus on our integrated audience platform, which is very driven around digital audiences and digital revenues across all of the streams, advertising, subscriptions, and transactions and classifieds business. So you can expect to see that profile of digital revenue and earnings will grow. Having said that, into FY 2025, our revenue from Meta is classified as a digital revenue, so we'll see that come out. So there'll be a bit of offset through 2025 .
Thanks, guys.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Sneesby for closing remarks.
That's a wrap for the results briefing. Thank you for your attendance, and we'll see you again at our next results briefing in February.