Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our full-year 2025 results briefing. I'm Matt Stanton, CEO of Nine Entertainment and joining me here today is our Acting CFO, Graeme Cassells. I'd like to start off by acknowledging the traditional custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea, and community. We pay our respects to their elders past, present, and emerging, and extend that respect to all First Nations people today. For myself, I am on the land of the Cammeraigal people of the Eora Nation. Nine is incredibly well positioned, owning the preeminent content assets in Australian media, which are increasingly working together in ways that no one else can replicate. Working to maximize the breadth, depth, and impact of our premium content, the uniqueness and usability of our data, and the opportunities that this presents to advertisers.
Our business model continues to progress as we focus on investing in the opportunities of our growth assets of Stan, NineNow, Digital Publishing, and Drive, while optimizing the operating performance of our broadcast and print businesses. After a challenging first- half, we were really pleased with the progress we made through the year. Not only did this result in growth in second half EBITDA driven by growth in Total TV, Stan, and publishing, it also stands us in good stead going forward. As our business becomes more digital, with digital revenue growth of 6% for the year, our ability to exploit the opportunities of our integrated consumer platform becomes more wide-reaching. Subscription revenues grew by 10% for the year, underpinned by growth at both Stan and in digital subscription revenues at publishing.
Stan particularly benefited as we brought the streaming and broadcast teams closer together, clearly evidenced through the Olympics, but with more synergies coming through in the second half through content sharing and cross-promotion. We removed around $80 million of costs from the business across the year, of which circa $60 million is classified as ongoing, ahead of initial guidance of $50 million. This was the result of our focused program of improving efficiencies across our business, whilst continuing to invest in the areas of growth. Throughout the year, we rolled out our refocused strategic model, aligning the business across three key verticals: streaming and broadcast, publishing, and marketplaces. We restructured our executive team, bringing a great depth of talent into our business, and continued to focus on our cultural transformation.
At the start of calendar 2025, we introduced the overlay of increased operating effectiveness, which we called Nine2028, focusing on both revenue and cost. Early signs of the success of this program were visible in our second half result. We believe there are opportunities to continue to grow each of our core businesses: streaming and broadcast through increased penetration of the digital video market, reflective of our growing audiences; publishing through continued growth in digital subscription revenues, as well as broader commercial agreements with the global platforms and marketplaces, both through Drive and partnerships with their third-party marketplaces businesses. In FY 2025, we completed an amazing Olympics and Paralympics, bringing the games to all Australians however they wanted it. Of particular note was the significant tech update we completed in the run-up to the games at NineNow and the step-changing subscribers we have experienced at Stan Sport.
This whole-of-Nine approach played out later in the year with our purchase of the Premier League rights, which cements Stan Sport as a scaled player in subscription sports streaming and further highlights Nine's commitment to premium content. Our digital growth strategy was further progressed with the introduction of advertising to Stan Sport for the recent Lions Tour. In FY 2025, we also grew digital publishing revenues at our mastheads, ahead of the rate of decline in print, standing us in good stead as our digital subscriptions continue to grow. In May, we reached an agreement to sell our 60% stake in Domain, finally accepting an offer which we believe was in the best interests of Nine shareholders and more than reflected the current value of the holding to Nine, being a 60% premium to the 60-day VWAP.
The sale enables us to return significant capital to our shareholders on a tax-effective basis, as well as strengthening our own balance sheet. Looking forward, we believe that we are the natural media partner for marketplace content and will look for further opportunities in this space. We continue to be energized by the opportunities of the Nine business. Through our premium content, growing audiences, and market-leading data proposition, we will continue to invest organically in our core business to ensure we remain at the forefront of media in Australia. Nine's unwavering focus on the content that drives audiences and engagement was reflected in strong audience results in FY 2025, and page five shows just some of the highlights. For the second year in a row, we recorded growth in total television audiences across the year, both including and excluding the Olympic weeks.
Key properties like the Australian Open, the NRL, Married at First Sight, and our suite of news products have all reported growth in both streaming and broadcast audiences. Importantly, this growth across the year extended to the younger demographics, with 10% growth in the average 16-3 9 audiences and almost 12% in the 25- 54s. At Stan, content consumption based on minutes watched grew on both a total and prescriber basis. At the mastheads, sessions and articles read per week per subscriber increased year- on- year, which resulted in ongoing subscription revenue growth, with the AFR growing at an average of 11% per year over the past three years. This strong audience performance is testament to Nine's 3,500+ employees who are focused on creating and distributing trusted, entertaining, and thought-provoking content for the Australian community, of which more than 70% is produced locally.
In a content world increasingly dominated by global players who have little regard for veracity or relevance, Nine continues to invest in content that matters to Australia, ensuring it is available as broadly as possible across multiple platforms. In doing so, we are helping to shape the fabric of our society. At this point, I'd like to ask Graeme to talk through the group financials.
Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. For the year to June, Nine reported group revenue of $2.7 billion, growth of 2% on the prior comparable period, and group EBITDA of $486 million. Included in this result was second half EBITDA growth of 8%. Group net profit after tax and minorities and before specific items was $166 million. On a statutory basis and inclusive of a specific item cost of $61 million, net profit for the year was $133 million.
Slide 8 details the composition of specific items, which totaled a pre-tax cost of $89 million for the year, of which almost 60% were non-cash accounting adjustments. Looking at the second half, further restructuring costs were $10 million, of which around half related to redundancies. The impairments related mainly to Nine Radio, but also included around $5 million relating to the changed ownership structure of Nine Rush. The waterfall chart on page 9 illustrates what we've achieved in terms of underlying costs. Reported costs ex-Domain were $82 million higher pre the impact of Paris Games, costs were broadly flat.
Within this, Nine offset the impacts of returning costs, investment in growth businesses Stan and Drive, as well as inflation relating to employee salaries and the higher Australian Open contract with an extensive program of initiatives, a total saving of more than $80 million, of which around $60 million is regarded as ongoing. We expect to take a further $90 million of underlying costs out, equating to a total annualized saving of $150 million by the end of FY 2027. On page 10, we've reconciled net debt of the wholly owned group from the starting position at July 1, 2024 of $489 million to the $451 million we've reported for June 2025. For the year to June, cash flow from operating activities was $381 million, excluding the Domain group, with the breakdown of this shown in detail in Appendix 2.
Since the end of FY 2025, aside from the normal cash flows from operations, Nine will receive circa $1.4 billion net of tax from CoStar relating to the sale of our Domain stake, whilst committing to pay a total of $840 million in franked dividends to shareholders, comprising both a special dividend of $0.49 as well as a fully franked final dividend of $0.04 per share, both dividends to be paid in late September.
Having been in the seat now for nine months, I am more convinced than ever about the opportunities ahead for Nine. Nine2028 is all about reshaping the business in recognition of the growth in digital video, a changing mix of short and long-form content, convergence of delivery platforms, and the continued development of technology and AI to drive growth.
Today, we have talked about the significant performance improvement element, but we're also focused on growth opportunities underpinned by continuing investment in the digital video market, a streaming-first approach, a sharper focus on commercialization, and an executive team aligned around group value creation. Across our three business units, we see strengths and opportunities. Nine's strong competitive position will continue to create opportunities to grow our share of the digital video market through both advertising and subscription. During the year, we have brought our streaming and broadcasting businesses closer together, optimizing our content, utilization, and cross-platform promotion, and bringing ads to Stan Sport. As the leading metro and business publisher with growing subscriber bases, we will continue to focus on the delivery of premium and differentiated content and on ensuring we are compensated by all of those who access the content.
We continue to see further opportunities in consumer and premium marketplace businesses, and not just Domain. In Australia, as Nine's growing audience and data capabilities make Nine a partner of choice for any company that is focused on building awareness and audience from both a top-of-funnel and targeted perspective. Slide 12 is intended to give you some insight as to how we are strategically thinking about capital allocation going forward. Our primary focus in the short to medium term is investing organically in our business, with a view to accelerating our ability to generate value for consumers and advertisers through our digital assets by utilizing our content and data. We are expediting the investment in our integrated consumer platform, aiming to bring all of our users together with one single sign-on on one consumer data platform.
We are upskilling our analytics capability and our AI deployment, both of which are expected to create opportunities across content and advertising. Across the year, we have deployed enterprise AI tools across all of Nine, including Google's Gemini AI platform, with more than 80% of employees already utilizing it, driving increased efficiency and effectiveness across the group. We will be relaunching a new and improved Nine App Manager, as we continue to see a significant opportunity to bring Australia's 2 million+ SMEs onto the Nine platform in a more seamless and profitable way. We have also agreed to invest in the digitalization of Nine Archives, digitalizing almost 200 years of publishing and 70 years of broadcast content, making Nine the most potent and reliable source of Australia's story. As the content is digitalized, Australia's history will be available like never before.
There will be opportunities to license this unique content to third- parties, while we also expect to be able to use AI tools to enable the creation of incremental content and experiences. These planned investments are expected to total around $50 million in FY 2026. Whilst our primary focus is on strengthening the core, we will continue to review our portfolio of assets, reflecting on the optimal use of capital. From a strategic perspective, each component of our portfolio must offer Nine's scale, diversity of earnings, and the ability for us to use our core competencies to grow the business. In terms of incremental capital management, we will continue to reassess this opportunity based on our perception of excess capital, reflecting on the market valuation for Nine balanced with other opportunities. Turning now to our divisional results. On Slide 14, we focus on our streaming and broadcast business.
The newly released Streamscape data for the June quarter illustrates the power of total television, also clearly showing that Nine's streaming and broadcast assets lead the market in total minutes consumed on TV screens across total people and the younger demographics. Nine properties account for more TV viewing than any other platform group, representing 20.2% of the total, more than double that of our international competitors, making Nine the key partner for advertisers looking to reach the living room in the crucial 5:30 A.M. to 9:00 P.M. time slot. That means that around 1/3 of all Australian content viewed on the TV screen by the all-important 25- 54-year-olds comes from Nine. Focusing on this opportunity over the past six months, since Amanda Lang joined in April, we have made much progress.
As examples, we have committed to utilizing our content more efficiently, with a recent example being the airing of Love Island U.K., traditionally a NineNow show, on Stan. For example, over the past two weekends, we have also demonstrated the power of the Nine Group through our launch of the Premier League on Stan Sport, supported by one free-to-air game each weekend straight off the back of the NRL broadcast on a Saturday night, and integrations across the Wide World of Sport and Nine's news products, as well as coverage across Nine Radio and publishing. As a result, 567,000 watched a Man City v Spurs match across Nine and Stan, with a reach of over 1.5 million, bringing incremental subscribers to Stan Sport. This was more than double our usual audience in that time slot, with the added benefit of boosting late audiences into the NRL.
The results have been extraordinary, with the second weekend delivering the most sports viewers on a single day in Stan's history, ahead of the first Sunday of the 2024 Olympics, as well as the most watched football match in Stan's history. No one else can launch events like we can. We've launched ads into Stan Sport, which means that Nine's advertisers are now able to reach audiences across live broadcasts, live streaming, and on-demand platforms, creating the most powerful video platform in Australia.
Looking now at the results for Total TV. Across FY 2025, Nine recorded audience growth for Total TV in both total people and 25- 54s. We recorded growth in broadcast TV and BVOD audiences across the six months to December, as well as the six months to June. In both halves, Nine's exposure to premium content and revenues ensured we outperformed the Total TV ad market.
In the second half, Nine's revenues grew by 4% against the Total TV market, which was broadly flat. For the year, Nine recorded Total TV revenue growth of 3% to $1.2 billion, with almost 20% of this revenue coming from NineNow. It's worth noting that Nine's Metro Broadcast TV revenue share for the year of 42.5% was an all-time high for any network. Reported full-year costs increased by $80 million. Increased sports costs accounted for around $85 million of incremental costs in FY 2025, specifically the Olympics and Paralympics, and the first year of the new Australian Open Rights contract, offset by the absence of cricket. On an underlying basis, savings of an estimated $23 million more than offset inflation and strategic investments in premium content and technology.
Total TV EBITDA momentum improved markedly in the second half, with the first- half declined followed by EBITDA growth of 16% in H2. Stan's reported 31% growth in EBITDA for the year was underpinned by a strong subscriber performance, which kicked off with a successful Olympic campaign but was augmented by Stan's slate of entertainment and sports content. Revenue growth of 10% was due to a combination of higher average subscriber numbers, particularly for Stan Sport and higher ARPU. The current subscriber number of around 2.5 million includes newly acquired Premier League subscribers following a transaction with Optus Sport as it ramps up. Stan's margins also expanded across the year. Sports costs were markedly higher, reflecting the Olympics coverage as well as the new year for contract. However, partially offsetting this, Stan worked hard across its overall cost base, keeping entertainment costs down on the prior comparable period.
With costs up a combined 7% across the business, Stan reported a record EBITDA result of $60 million. The 6% ARPU increase primarily reflected the strong performance of Stan Sport. Average paying subscribers across the year were marginally higher, while average sports subscribers grew by a low double-digit percentage pre-Premier League. This was driven primarily by the Olympics and Paralympics, as well as the final season of Yellowstone. However, subscriber retention remained strong throughout the year with Grand Slam tennis, rugby, and UEFA competitions, as well as a strong H2 entertainment slate with Stan Exclusives and Stan Originals leading the H2 entertainment performance. Stan introduced advertising to Stan Sport with the Lions Tour and also recently implemented a $5 price increase at Stan Sport following the acquisition of English Premier League and other football properties from Optus Sport.
Turning now to page 17, I thought it was worth highlighting some of the key metrics and strategic achievements of the Nine publishing group. We're really pleased with the performance of our publishing businesses, both in FY 2025 and over the past few years. We have now reached a point where digital subscription revenue growth is exceeding the print decline, and in fact, ex-Meta, total revenue growth from digital more than offset the impact of print. Over the past three years, our Metro business has recorded double-digit growth in digital subscription revenues, a testament to our content strategy, while we have marginally reduced costs. In FY 2025, our EBITDA margin of 33% is as good as any major publisher worldwide. It is something we are proud of and a base with which we are committed to continuing to grow.
To this end, over the past six months, we have continued to invest in our technology and product, launching vertical video shorts and interactive story formats, while we've also launched incremental premium content through Good Food and Digital Puzzles, all designed to underpin future subscription revenue growth. Our newsrooms are now structured around digital first, and we have utilized AI features for using content management and personalization. Drive's refocused business has underpinned marketplace revenue growth of more than 100% through growth in listings and audience.
In terms of results, publishing reported revenue of $526 million and a combined EBITDA of $153 million, which was flat on FY 2024. This result, which includes the impact of the absence of Meta revenues, was a testament to the value of Nine's premium content, the strength of the group's subscriber base, as well as the work we have done to realign and refocus the cost base. This result also included a single-digit million-dollar adjustment to defamation provisions relating to the case brought against Nine by Ben Roberts-Smith. Nine.com.au and Pedestrian were impacted by recent restructurings, with lower revenue more than offset by reduced costs. We continue to be positive about the outlook for Drive, which grew its revenue by 15%, underpinned by a marked increase in listings revenue, a key part of Nine's investment in marketplaces. On page 19, we take a closer look at our masthead business.
We were very pleased with our digital subscriber performance, both in terms of subscriber numbers and ARPU, resulting in digital subscription revenue growth of around 15%. Increases in subscriber numbers and price at The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, and The Australian Financial Review more than offset the decline in print masthead sale revenue. Nine's Metro mastheads were, however, impacted by the softness in the broader advertising market. Print advertising declined by 10%, reflecting softness in travel, retail, luxury, and education, while the digital advertising revenue decline of 5% was mainly reflective of weakness in programmatic. With a growing registered user base and the database opportunities around deeper advertising integrations, Nine is focused on incremental advertising opportunities going forward. Strong cost management at the mastheads helped reduce costs $18 million, or 6%. Across the year, the cost focus yielded benefits mainly across people in printing and distribution.
The mastheads have continued targeted investment in their key growth areas, focused on ensuring recent audience and subscription strength is maintained. Turning now to audio. After a strong rebound in H1, H2 profits from audio were impacted by a loss of advertising revenue share in a market which was broadly flat. Digital revenues remained a positive, with growth of 31%. Reflecting on this result, Nine has announced a new commercial structure for 1 July. This increased focus on direct sales allows Nine to both play to its strengths of scale and reach across platforms, while providing greater capability to unlock more advertising opportunities in what talk radio does best: live, local, and deeper brand connections with listeners. Turning now to page 21, with the completion of the CoStar takeover earlier this week, Domain is no longer required to file detailed accounts with ASX in FY 2025.
The 7% growth in EBITDA included a flat second half result as the listings market softened and costs normalized. In FY 2026, Domain will be treated as a discontinued business, so it won't be included in our reported results again. We've included a pro forma P&L for Nine ex-Domain in FY 2025 in Appendix 4 .
I'd also like to say a few words about the current regulatory environment. Australians have a deep connection with Nine. In an uncertain world, Australians are increasingly reliant on Nine to be informed. It continues to be a time of enormous change that's impacting every Australian, and local media companies are not immune from this. The Albanese government has largely continued its regulatory agenda in the media and tech environment from the previous parliamentary term.
It includes much needed reforms, such as the news media bargaining incentive and ex-ante laws for ad tech, both of which Nine fully supports. We are pleased the government continues to be committed to the news media bargaining incentive and look forward to the consultation paper, which we understand will be released soon. We are aligned with the PM on getting this done. There are emerging threats to local media and journalism, with generative AI platforms scraping our news platforms to train their systems without Nine's permission or any payment. This too will require decisive political action to ensure that this theft cannot go on without consequence or commercial arrangement. Australians want to see firm and decisive action to support journalism and local media because of the fundamental role we play in our society and safeguarding our democracy. I'll now turn to current trading.
We remain positive about the momentum in our business, underpinned by our core digital and subscription assets, which we expect will result in continued growth in EBITDA in H1 FY 2026 on H1 FY 2025. However, at this stage, we have limited visibility regarding advertising market conditions into H2 FY 2026. The Paris Games last year have impacted on Nine's Total TV comparables in quarter one FY 2026. In the first clean month of September, Nine is expecting Total TV revenues to be broadly flat year- on- year, with double-digit growth at NineNow offsetting a low single-digit decline at Nine Broadcast TV. While the Total TV market remains very short, we're expecting quarter two to continue on broadly the same trajectory as September, reflecting on some anticipated impact from the recent interest rate cuts, the relatively soft comparables, and the number of briefs currently in the market.
As NineNow grows in relative importance, expected to be more than 20% of Nine's total television revenues in FY 2026, and as underlying free-to-air audiences remain resilient, Nine's confident in its ability to grow its total television revenues through the cycle build. Cost comparables in FY 2026 will be similarly impacted by the absence of the Paris Olympics, the inclusion of the Milano Cortina Winter Games, and the restructure of the operating model at Nine Rush. On a reported basis, Nine is expecting total television costs to be down in the low to mid single-digit percentage in FY 2026 on FY 2025. Excluding the impact of the FY 2025 Paris Games, the FY 2026 Milano Games, and the Nine Rush structure, total television costs are expected to be broadly flat in FY 2026 on FY 2025.
Cost initiatives will continue through 2026, with underlying inflation and targeted investment in technology and content offset by ongoing cost efficiencies across the business. Boosted by the recent Premier League deal, FY 2026 is expected to be another year of growth at Stan, with revenue growth expected to more than offset higher costs. At Nine Publishing, digital subscription revenue growth is expected to continue in low mid-teen percentage in quarter one on PCP, while we intend to make further targeted investment in content and technology across both the mastheads and Drive to support our longer-term growth ambitions. Nine Audio's Q1 advertising revenues are expected to decline in the high single to low double-digit on a percentage basis against an Olympic-impacted quarter one FY 2025.
Through 2026 and beyond, Nine will increase its focus on organic investment opportunities, focusing on further accelerating Nine's group strategy, using the power of the Nine Group to deepen our connection with audiences and advertisers by harnessing our unique data and premium content to drive growth. As we have demonstrated, particularly over this past six months, Nine is in a great position to capitalize on our assets, whether it be our digital growth assets of The Australian Financial Review, The Age, SMH, and Stan, or our Total TV assets, which have growing audiences. We continue to have to remind the market that across streaming and broadcasts, Stan and Nine continue to command more TV screen viewing than any of the international streamers and free video channels. We are Australia's leading content provider across multiple platforms and have a great opportunity ahead of us.
We own the preeminent content assets in Australian media, which are increasingly working together in ways that no one else can replicate. Working together to maximize the breadth, depth, and impact of our premium content, the uniqueness and usability of the associated data, and the opportunities that it presents to advertisers, we will continue to make and distribute the content which shapes Australia's culture and society. Graeme and I will take your questions. Operator, if you could pass through our first question. Thank you.
Your first question is from Eric Choi with Barrenj oey.
Hi, morning. Hey, hey Matt.
Morning.
Do you mind if I ask three, Matt, and maybe one on Cap Management, one on Domain, one on Stan? Do you want them one by one, Matt, or all at once?
Go one by one if that's okay.
Sure, sounds good. Maybe on Capital Management, your gearing is about 1.3x now, but post the Domain proceeds and fiscal, I think you'll be net cash, probably $100 million. Just wondering, does it make more sense to use those proceeds to shore up your share price first, maybe through buybacks before you'd ever consider M&A, or maybe just to cover it off? That $200 million of cash also coincidentally matches Southern Cross's market cap, but should we ignore whatever we read in The Australian?
Good start, Eric. Thank you. Let's just go through. We are, as I've just gone through, very focused on our core assets at this point in time. We've had some good success over the last year, especially in the second half. The program we've got, Nine2028, is around both looking at our cost base and being more efficient there, but also our revenue as well. There are lots of revenue opportunities as well. We're very buoyed by the progress we've been making, the growth in the digital video market, the digital subscriptions, and the opportunities in marketplaces still that we have ahead. I think that's where our focus is, I suppose, to your point, and we'll see what happens to the share price from there. That is our focus going forward, if that's it. On the second question, we don't react to market speculation, as you can see. That's not something that we put in the papers, I can tell you that for sure.
Gotcha. That makes a lot of sense, Matt. Just on Domain, if you check the industry, they're sort of saying Domain might have an extra up to $50 million to spend every year with CoStar, and they might want to market Homes.com. Just thinking about it, like News Corp publications might not want to promote Domain or Homes.com. Just wondering if that bodes positively for NE C taking a portion of that $150 million?
Yeah, I think potentially it does. I mean, I think we've got very strong relationships. We obviously know them very well. Domain, I mean, is literally, the transaction happens through today. Look, we think there's opportunities with Domain. We would be a natural partner for all marketplaces, to be fair. Whether it's a top-of-the-funnel type advertising or actually more targeted advertising through referrals and content and so forth, we're very happy to work with them. Just to be clear, we haven't actually been able to sort of engage until about now, really, with Domain through this because of the process we've been going through. We're really looking forward to working with Domain and others around opportunities we would have with them.
Awesome. Just last one on Stan, really good result. I know there's rounding, but it looked like there was about 200,000 growth in the paying subs. I was wondering if you could split that between underlying versus Premier League. The reason I ask is, obviously, you're guiding to single-digit EBITDA contributions in FY 2026. If we think about it going forward, if that EPL cost base is relatively fixed and you've only transferred, say, maybe 100,000 subs versus a EPL viewing audience much larger than that, it would suggest that the EBITDA growth or leverage from EPL from FY 2027 onwards is much, much higher.
Yeah, look, it's not quite as straightforward as saying we had 2.3 and we got to 2.5. There's a bit of churn that goes on there. For example, at the beginning of the year, we had a lot of uplift from the Olympics into Stan Sport, and then that obviously tails off through. We'd have had entertainment shows like, you know, Yellowstone come out, but then we've got Outlander come in. There's a bit of mix that goes on with the cost base. Love Island was a good example of a good uplift for us. The Lions Tour was very strong for us, and I think the churn levels have been good through there. It's a bit difficult to say that, you know, 200,000 that we've said is exactly to do with EPL. There's a number in there.
I mean, rough, rough, if you're thinking through, you're probably, it's about right, but it's not exactly that. I think the opportunity, though, you know, we're very pleased with where we are with the Premier League deal that we've got. Yes, I think, you know, as we go from 2026 into 2027, that will hold up our subs more, but also importantly, hold up the ARPU of the business. You think we moved our Stan Sport price from $15 to $20 because of the addition of the Premier League into that suite, because we've got scale in that market now. The scale of that, of the Stan Sport is very sizable now, where we've got, you know, Champions League, we've got Premier League, we've got all the tennis, we've got the Olympics, we've got the Winter Olympics coming, we've got the rugby, et cetera, et cetera. The good thing for us about that, that win, if you like, was the fact that now Stan Sport is really a good scale player and a good opportunity for us.
Good stuff. Thanks, Matt.
Thank you.
If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Entcho Raykovski with E&P.
Morning, Matt. Morning, Graeme.
Morning.
My first question, I don't know if you'll be able to, or you probably are able to, whether you want to answer this. Are you able to give us a sense for where Q1 revenues will be in Total TV if you see that flat outcome in September? Or maybe where the first half will end up if we assume the September trends continue if you don't want to focus too much on the quarter?
No, it's quite difficult because of the Olympic comparables. Obviously, July and August last year, we had very strong ad revenue coming through. Obviously, we had the rights costs, etc., to offset that, but very strong. It's very difficult for us to try and unpick a little bit of how the trading is going in July and August. September, we've got some visibility to at the moment, and we've said that sort of broadly flat across Total TV. As we look into quarter two, that becomes harder. The market is definitely short, but I think, as you know, it feels like, with the interest rate cuts and the market where it is, there could be opportunities as well. At this point in time, it's difficult for us to pick through.
What I would say is as well, and trying to talk to the market, is about, don't forget now, nearly 40% of our revenue now is actually non-advertising revenue, and it was in strong growth in H2 just going through, and we expect growth as well into H1. Yes, there'll be the advertising go through. I think advertising as a whole, as the whole of the advertising market, I think we think is positive as going forward. There'll be bits and pieces, ups and downs. It's a bit short at the moment, but our business is not just geared totally to advertising. There's obviously the subscription side of it, both within Stan and within our publishing assets.
Okay, great. Thanks, Matt. On TV costs, you've given us the full year trajectory. Can you give us an indication of the first- half versus second half growth rates that you expect? Should we just be taking that flat underlying number and adjusting it for the one-off events?
I don't know if you can answer that, right?
I might have to get back to you on that, but yes is the answer. You will need to adjust. Obviously, we've got the Olympics in the first- half last year, the Milan in the second half this year. If you adjust for that, you're probably not far away, but I might give a note to get back to you in the detail of the split.
No, that's fine. I mean, we can probably, we can obviously work it out, but just on an underlying basis, you're expecting that flat. Yeah, it sounds like you're expecting that flat trajectory.
I think you just got to be careful because content comes in at different months through the year. For example, the Winter Olympics coming in in February will obviously boost the cost base further, and it depends on rights that you have going through. I think it's a bit difficult. Maybe we'll get back to you through Nola.
Okay, sounds good. The Stan Sport, I'm curious if the price increases in July have resulted in any elevated churn. You've obviously got significant new content with the Premier League. That price increase of $5 per month actually seems minimal given Optus Sport is charging $25 a month standalone for non-Optus customers. How do you think, to answer that question, how do you think about the broader pricing opportunity at Stan?
Yeah, a good question. I mean, on the Stan Sport, as you say, we've moved up. On the churn you asked about, we haven't really seen any big change in churn at all. We were very pleased with that. I think that goes to the value of the content that we have on that platform, which is very strong now. The value equation, I think, is very good for the consumer out there. If you look at pricing of the SFODs ourselves and to local competitors, but also global, if you look globally, maybe the U.S. and U.K., and look at those prices that go through, I think we are very confident there's opportunities in our ARPU ongoing within the Stan Sport business.
Okay, great. Maybe just a very final one, if I could sneak in there. In publishing, improving second half EBITDA trend, do you think that's indicative, that second half EBITDA growth trend of +5%? Do you think that's indicative of the trajectory into 2026, or do you think it gets better given the absence of the Meta headwind?
Look, now I think on publishing, we had a very strong result this year. We're very pleased with where we are. There's a few one-offs here in this year as well that we point out, especially around BRS. I think you've got to be a little bit careful if you look into publishing next year. We should see continued growth in digital subs, and that's all going well. We are investing in the business as well. We see, you know, we've had some good results from publishing. There are some investments in the cost base as well. Drive, for example, we're pushing on with investing. You obviously took some cost out in FY 2025 out of the publishing business as we lost the Meta revenue. The team did a very good job of mitigating that as best as possible through there. We don't see that so much next year. Obviously, then you've got salary increases and so forth going on. We see publishing continuing, but we will be investing a bit into that business going forward in FY 2026.
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks, Entcho.
Your next question comes from Fraser Mcleish with MST Marquee.
Great, thanks. Hi, Matt and Graeme. Just a couple from me. Publishing's obviously a bigger part of the whole now with Domain gone. I was just wondering if a little bit more sort of detail on that, if that's possible. The main one I was going to ask about is the AFR, which is obviously the jewel in the crown in the publishing business. You've given a couple of metrics there, but just can you give us a sense of the materiality of the AFR within overall publishing, like roughly what percent of revenue it makes up would be helpful? The second one I just wanted to ask was a sort of follow-up to Eric's question, I think, on the Stan Sport and the EPL. Obviously, a bump up in subs as those EPL subs have come on. Is that something you expect to build over the life of the contract, or is it kind of expected broadly stable at the current level? Thanks.
Yeah, sure. Thanks. Just on your first question, on publishing around the jewel in the crown of The AFR, I'd just like to say, Fraser, we love our children equally, as you can imagine, but some days certain ones are better than others. The AFR has been particularly strong for us, as I sort of point out, + 11% growth CAGR over the last three years for the business. It's going well. I think probably people we don't sort of recognize enough is some of the other revenue streams coming out there, especially the events business. We've done very well with the events business this year, both the larger events in that organization, but also some of the smaller events through.
We do see opportunity going forward on The AFR probably, you know, as we go through continued digital growth on the subscriptions, but also looking to the B2B side of that business. We think there's good opportunities in there. For a scale, we don't split out exactly, but it is going well. What we will do is probably spend a bit more time. We'll have an investor day. We're thinking mid-November, and we'll probably get into that a bit more at that point. It's a material part of the business, and it's going well. That's how we're going there. Then Stan Sport, big pun, the EPL build on that. Yeah, look, we do see it building. It's come over.
We had a number of Optus Sport subs that came over to us, and then we've had a number of subs come in just organically direct into us around that, which we're pleased with. We do see this building. We've had two weekends. We've done a great job. We had a very clear strategy around how we launched it. We've got the final Saturday night, 9:30 P.M. game on this weekend coming, and then we'll stop that. That was a bit about awareness and reach and drive through there. Obviously, through publishing our radio assets as well, we've really pushed that and been very pleased with the response. We do see it building going through, and we see opportunities.
Also not just building there, but also, I think, importantly, holding the churn as well, because you do churn through sometimes on subs, especially with some of the sporting stuff, which may go up and down depending on seasons you have. If you look at Stan Sport now, we're pretty, pretty good in the fact that we've got an always-on calendar annually for that now. I think, as well as building a bit, the churn will reduce a bit on Stan Sport. We're feeling pretty good about that as we go over. Obviously, we're grandfathering over some people from Optus, and that will change as we go. Certainly, those deals change, and we'll move those onto the platform as well. The scale should build over time on Stan Sport. Thanks, Fraser.
Thanks.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Stanton for closing remarks.
Okay, thanks everybody, and that wraps up the results briefing. Thank you for your attendance, and we will see you again at our half-year results briefing in February or at our Investor Day in the diaries now, I think, for November 13, apparently. There you go. Thanks very much.